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DNV Maritime Forecast To 2050 Webinar Slidedeck

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Maritime Forecast to 2050

Energy Transition Outlook 2023


Eirik Ovrum PhD, Principal Consultant, DNV Maritime Advisory, Lead Author
Tore Longva, Decarbonization Director, Regulatory Affairs
The webinar presenters – all from DNV Maritime

Eirik Ovrum, PhD Margrethe Andersen


Tore Longva
Principal Consultant,
DNV Maritime Advisory Decarbonization Director, Head of External
Lead Author of Maritime Regulatory Affairs Communications
Forecast 2050 DNV Maritime
DNV
DNV
Host

2 DNV ©
AGENDA

 Drivers and regulations for decarbonization


 Ship technologies and fuels
 Fuel production and demand
 CCS and nuclear propulsion – case studies
 Questions and answers

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Regulations, technologies and fuel production are
developing, with a large impact on shipping’s future

Drivers Fuel Technologies


Regulations production Fuels
and demand

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IMO decarbonization ambitions significantly strengthened

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Shipowners investing in fuel flexibility – half the ordered
tonnage can run on alternative fuels

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Reducing energy consumption is critical to reduce
emissions and sustain increased energy costs

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All decarbonization solutions must be explored

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2,200 carbon-neutral fuel projects identified, most without
final investment decision

afi.dnv.com

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Shipping requires an estimated 30-40% of global
carbon-neutral fuels in 2030

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Emissions from fuel production are part of IMO’s goals

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Regulations are needed to ensure emissions are not
moved from ship to shore

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Onboard carbon capture and storage can reduce the demand
for carbon-neutral fuels
 Avoids
competition
for sustainable
biomass and
renewable electricity

 Case study
for 15,000 TEU
container vessel

 Capturing 70%
of CO2
in 4,000 m3 tanks

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Case study of 15,000 TEU container vessel shows that onboard carbon
capture can compete with other proposed decarbonization solutions

A high and a low


cost scenario

CCS high
 30% fuel penalty
 80 USD/ton CO2

CCS low
 15% fuel penalty
 40 USD/ton CO2

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Nuclear powered ships are a proven technology used in
navies and ice-breakers

 Avoids competition for sustainable


biomass and renewable electricity

 Today, about 160 vessels, mostly naval,


sail with about 200 reactors

 Barriers exist for merchant vessels –


pilots planned for early thirties

 Case study for 15,000 TEU


container vessel

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Case study of 15,000 TEU container vessel shows that nuclear
propulsion can compete with other decarbonization solutions

A high and a low


cost scenario

Nuclear high
 CAPEX
6,000 USD/kW

Nuclear low
 CAPEX
4,000 USD/kW

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Maritime Forecast to 2050 – key findings

Strengthened Shipping will Half the ordered Global fuel Onboard carbon
IMO ambitions require an tonnage can use production capture and
and first estimated LNG, LPG or standards are nuclear are
international 30-40% of global methanol in needed to meet technically and
CO2 price in EU, cross-sector dual-fuel engines IMO’s net-zero economically
set the carbon-neutral close to 2050 feasible options
decarbonization fuel supply in goal
pathway 2030

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Maritime Forecast to 2050 – implications

Fuel producers Reducing energy The fuel and Further regulatory Cost of
must accelerate consumption technology shift clarity and decarbonization
plans, but need critical to lowering will require large commercialization must be carried
offtake emissions and scale training of of new technologies through the
commitments softening the seafarers, no matter is required maritime value
from fuel buyers impact of which technologies chain by green
increased energy and fuels are the corridors or similar
costs winners mechanisms

The 2020s is proving to be the decisive decade for decarbonization of shipping

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Maritime Forecast to 2050 – recommendations

Shipowners should:

 Reduce energy consumption now


 Consider all decarbonization options
 Focus on fuel flexibility
 Consider long-term fuel strategy

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Related DNV resources and services (selection only)
Decarbonization On-demand Theme pages Publications
hub webinar, podcast DCS, CII, SEEMP III, etc. Alternative fuels, Maritime
Forecast, etc.

Resources on
Maritime
Forecast to 2050
www.dnv.com/decarb www.dnv.com/insights www.dnv.com/insights www.dnv.com/insights
20

EU ETS and Advisory services AFI (Alt. Fuels Technical &


Emissions • Decarbonization Plan Insight) Regulatory News
Connect • ECO Solutions
Maritime Forecast to 2050 - DNV
• Battery and hybrid
ships
• ...and much more

EU ETS – Emissions Trading https://www.dnv.com/maritime- Alternative Fuels Insight (AFI) |


System - DNV advisory www.dnv.com/tecreg
Veracity by DNV

DNV ©
Thanks for joining!

MARITIME
FORECAST
TO 2050

21 DNV ©

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