BXMT
BXMT
BXMT
(BXMT)
December 6, 2023
Interest rate swaps and manipulated risk ratings / loss provisions have obscured serious
deterioration in BXMT's loan book. We believe that starting in 2024, as an estimated $16
billion of swaps terminate, the following problems will be evident:
• BXMT will likely significantly cut its dividend as soon as H2 2024. At present SOFR,
we expect BXMT to cut its quarterly dividend by at least half.
• We think large numbers of borrowers will be unable to refinance and repay BXMT.
• BXMT is at risk of a liquidity crisis.
• Even assuming rate cuts, BXMT's losses on its $23.2 billion net book value of loans
could reach ~$2.5 billion to ~$4.5 billion. BXMT's market cap, which is currently $4.0
billion, is at risk of being completely wiped out by these losses. These losses would be in
addition to BXMT's existing loss provisions.
Our Methodology 12
Unless SOFR hits ~3.5% in H2 2024 without the economy slowing, we think BXMT
will be hammered by the macro.
• "Delinquent commercial real estate loans at US banks have hit their highest level in a decade, as higher interest rates,
an uncertain economy and the rise of remote working pile pressure on building owners. The volume of past-due
loans in which owners of properties rented to others have missed more than one payment jumped
30 per cent, or $4bn, to $17.7bn in the three months to the end of September, according to industry tracker
BankRegData. The figure had risen by $10bn in a year."
• “Thanks to deterioration in property-level financial performance, only about 25 per cent of conduit and single
asset/single borrower CMBS loans will be able to refinance in the next two years , GS found. For the
broader CMBS market, that figure is just 40 per cent. GS has to make some assumptions about what
securities can refinance, of course. The strategists settle on an LTV below 60 per cent; an implied mortgage rate from of
at least 7 per cent; and a debt service coverage ratio above 1.3 to 1.5 depending on the property type.”
• Many borrowers have only been able to stay current through the
unprecedented rate hikes of 2022-2023 because of the swaps.
• BXMT has also been giving investors a false sense of security through unrealistic
(and subjective) Risk Ratings and CECL (Current Expected Credit Loss)
provisioning.
• BXMT has been "extending and pretending" by modifying troubled loans that
are already otherwise in default – extending maturities and allowing them to PIK.
oWe believe that at least nine loans totaling $1.6 billion (~6.3% of BXMT's
net book value) have already been modified through Q3 2023.
oWe understand that already ~4% to ~5% of interest income is PIK.1
The CLO servicing report for the three CLOs show a total of $1.9 billion
of loans that are on the "watchlist" at "6A", which means "Any Other
Situation that Indicates an Increased Level of Default Risk that
may Create Potential Material Losses to Investors (Lesser of 10% of
UPB or $500,000)"1
1 As shown infra, this calculation excludes two properties that presently have negative NOIs due to construction and / or renovation.
Not one of these properties could cover interest even if SOFR were only 3.5%.
Our As-Is values are generally more conservative than are DBRS Morningstar's.
2 rated loan
3 rated loan
2 rated loan
BXMT's total non-specific CECLs across the entire U.S. book are $114 million, which this table
shows is unduly low. We estimate that One South Wacker is impaired by $155 million, Colony
Square by $50.7 million, Liberty View by $47 million, and Northbridge by $9.3 million.
• Recall that the book value net of CECLs of Group B loans is $2.4 billion,
compared to our estimated recoveries of $2.0 billion.
o The average NOI to debt for these borrowings is 6.7% compared to an average spread of
~300 bps.
• Recall that the book value net of CECLs of Group A loans is $1.4 billion,
compared to our estimated recoveries of $0.7 billion.
o The average NOI to debt for these borrowings is 3.6% compared to SOFR of 5.3% and an
average spread of ~300 bps.
• Outside of the CLOs, BXMT has nine loans totaling $1.9 billion in value Risk
Rated 4, but with no specific CECL reserves. Based on our findings, the CECLs
on these 2 – 4 Risk Rating loans will eventually increase dramatically as swaps
expire and BXMT cannot delay truing up its reserves.
A new (as of Q3 2023) CYA disclosure warns investors that GAAP income covers only
27% of the dividend (below), seemingly telegraphing BXMT's recognition of the
unsustainability of its dividend. This disclosure previously wasn't present.
• The real estate data service shows nominal vacancy of 36% (rough match to CLO report), but an "Availability
Rate" of 53.5%.
• In other words, there is an additional 17.5% of the building available for sub-lease. This loan is now Risk
Rated 5, but when the weighted average sq ft has been on the market for 32 months, why did it take BXMT so
long to downgrade the loan to 5?
source https://www.cbre.com/resources/fileassets/US-SMPL-66185/a3680558/bf98ab87-d75f-44f7-8840-eeb590a377af.pdf
https://therealdeal.com/sanfrancisco/2023/09/27/pwc-looks-to-exit-downtown-san-jose-for-the-suburbs/
• Overall occupancy is at 83% – from the CLO data (see next page)
they own building 100, 300, 400 & 500
• Our data confirms: 10% of building 100 was occupied by WeWork.
• Stated vacancy of 300 is 51% and shadow vacancy is 68.2%
• Shadow vacancy of building 400 is 25.8%.
• Building 500 looks to be the only one that has no issues, it's almost
100% leased to Jones Day.
*Based on our calculation, If NOI increases by $5m due to new tenant, the impairment would decrease to $96m from
$155m.
1 https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/15/downtown-austin-real-estate-doom-loop/
2 https://austin.towers.net/inside-waterline-downtown-austins-record-breaking-supertall-tower-plan/