(eBook PDF) Business Analytics Data

Analysis Decision Making 6th

Visit to download the full and correct content document:
https://ebooksecure.com/download/ebook-pdf-business-analytics-data-analysis-decisi
on-making-6th/
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
 To my wonderful wife Mary—my best friend and travel mate; to Sam, Lindsay, Teddy, and
Archie; and to Bryn, our ball-playing Welsh corgi! S.C.A

To my wonderful family W.L.W.

Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
 About the Authors
S. Christian Albright got his B.S. degree in
Mathematics from Stanford in 1968 and his PhD in
Operations Research from Stanford in 1972. He taught
in the Operations & Decision Technologies Department
in the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University

© Cengage Learning
(IU) for close to 40 years, before retiring from teaching
in 2011. While at IU, he taught courses in management
science, computer simulation, statistics, and computer
programming to all levels of business students, including
undergraduates, MBAs, and doctoral students. In addition,
he taught simulation modeling at General Motors and Whirlpool, and he taught
database analysis for the Army. He published over 20 articles in leading operations
research journals in the area of applied probability, and he has authored the books
Statistics for Business and Economics, Practical Management Science, Spreadsheet
Modeling and Applications, Data Analysis for Managers, and VBA for Modelers.
He worked for several years after “retirement” with the Palisade Corporation
developing training materials for its software products, he has developed a
commercial version of his Excel ® tutorial, called ExcelNow!, and he continues to
revise his textbooks.
On the personal side, Chris has been married for 44 years to his wonderful wife,
Mary, who retired several years ago after teaching 7th grade English for 30 years. They
have one son, Sam, who lives in Philadelphia with his wife Lindsay and their two sons,
Teddy and Archer. Chris has many interests outside the academic area. They include
activities with his family (especially traveling with Mary), going to cultural events at IU,
power walking while listening to books on his iPod, and reading. And although he earns
his livelihood from statistics and management science, his real passion is for playing
classical piano music.

Wayne L. Winston taught in the Operations & Decision

Technologies Department in the Kelley School of Business
at Indiana University for close to 40 before retiring a few
years ago. Wayne received his B.S. degree in Mathematics
from MIT and his PhD in Operations Research from
© Cengage Learning

Yale. He has written the successful textbooks Operations

Research: Applications and Algorithms, Mathematical
Programming: Applications and Algorithms, Simulation
Modeling Using @RISK, Practical Management Science,
Data Analysis and Decision Making, Financial Models
Using Simulation and Optimization, and Mathletics. Wayne has published more than
20 articles in leading journals and has won many teaching awards, including the
school-wide MBA award four times. He has taught classes at Microsoft, GM, Ford,
Eli Lilly, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Arthur Andersen, Roche, PricewaterhouseCoopers,
and NCR, and in “retirement,” he is currently teaching several courses at the

iv
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
 University of Houston. His current interest is showing how spreadsheet models can
be used to solve business problems in all disciplines, particularly in finance and
marketing.
Wayne enjoys swimming and basketball, and his passion for trivia won him an
appearance several years ago on the television game show Jeopardy!, where he won two
games. He is married to the lovely and talented Vivian. They have two children, Gregory
and Jennifer.

v
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
 Brief Contents
Preface xviii
1 Introduction to Business Analytics 1
Part 1 Exploring Data 17
2 Describing the Distribution of a Single Variable 19
3 Finding Relationships among Variables 79
Part 2 Probability and Decision Making Under
Uncertainty 137
4 Probability and Probability Distributions 139
5 Normal, Binomial, Poisson, and Exponential Distributions 166
6 Decision Making under Uncertainty 222
Part 3 Statistical Inference 277
7 Sampling and Sampling Distributions 279
8 Confidence Interval Estimation 311
9 Hypothesis Testing 363
Part 4 Regression Analysis and Time Series Forecasting 415
10 Regression Analysis: Estimating Relationships 417
11 Regression Analysis: Statistical Inference 482
12 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting 539
Part 5 Optimization and Simulation Modeling 597
13 Introduction to Optimization Modeling 599
14 Optimization Models 661
15 Introduction to Simulation Modeling 759
16 Simulation Models 829
Part 6 Advanced Data Analysis 895
17 Data Mining 897
Introduction to Spreadsheet Modeling (only in MindTap)

vi
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
Part 7 Bonus Online Material* 18-1
18 Importing Data into Excel 18-3
19 Analysis of Variance and Experimental Design 19-1
20 Statistical Process Control 20-1
Appendix A Statistical Reporting A-1
•
Bonus Online Material for this text can be found on the text companion website at cengagebrain.com.

References 943
Index 945

Brief Contents vii

Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
 Contents
Preface xviii
1 Introduction to Business Analytics 1
1-1 Introduction 3
1-2 Overview of the Book 4
1-2a The Methods 4
1-2b The Software 7
1-3 Modeling and Models 10
1-3a Graphical Models 10
1-3b Algebraic Models 11
1-3c Spreadsheet Models 12
1-3d A Seven-Step Modeling Process 13
1-4 Conclusion 15

PART 1 EXPLORING DATA 17

2 Describing the Distribution of a Single Variable 19

2-1 Introduction 21
2-2 Basic Concepts 22
2-2a Populations and Samples 22
2-2b Data Sets, Variables, and Observations 23
2-2c Types of Data 24
2-3 Descriptive Measures for Categorical Variables 26
2-4 Descriptive Measures for Numerical Variables 30
2-4a Numerical Summary Measures 31
2-4b Numerical Summary Measures with StatTools 40
2-4c Analysis ToolPak Add-In 45
2-4d Charts for Numerical Variables 45
2-5 Time Series Data 54
2-6 Outliers and Missing Values 61
2-6a Outliers 61
2-6b Missing Values 61
2-7 Excel Tables for Filtering, Sorting, and Summarizing 63
2-8 Conclusion 71

viii
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
3 Finding Relationships among Variables 79
3-1 Introduction 80
3-2 Relationships among Categorical Variables 82
3-3 Relationships among Categorical Variables and a Numerical Variable 86
3-3a Stacked and Unstacked Formats 86
3-4 Relationships among Numerical Variables 95
3-4a Scatterplots 95
3-4b Correlation and Covariance 101
3-5 Pivot Tables 108
3-6 Conclusion 131

PART 2 PROBABILITY AND DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY 137

4 Probability and Probability Distributions 139

4-1 Introduction 140
4-2 Probability Essentials 142
4-2a Rule of Complements 142
4-2b Addition Rule 142
4-2c Conditional Probability and the Multiplication Rule 143
4-2d Probabilistic Independence 146
4-2e Equally Likely Events 147
4-2f Subjective Versus Objective Probabilities 147
4-3 Probability Distribution of a Single Random Variable 150
4-3a Summary Measures of a Probability Distribution 151
4-3b Conditional Mean and Variance 154
4-4 Introduction to Simulation 156
4-5 Conclusion 160
5 Normal, Binomial, Poisson, and Exponential Distributions 166
5-1 Introduction 167
5-2 The Normal Distribution 168
5-2a Continuous Distributions and Density Functions 168
5-2b The Normal Density 169
5-2c Standardizing: Z-Values 170
5-2d Normal Tables and Z-Values 172
5-2e Normal Calculations in Excel 174
5-2f Empirical Rules Revisited 177
5-2g Weighted Sums of Normal Random Variables 177
5-3 Applications of the Normal Distribution 178

Contents ix
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
 5-4 The Binomial Distribution 190
5-4a Mean and Standard Deviation of the Binomial Distribution 193
5-4b The Binomial Distribution in the Context of Sampling 193
5-4c The Normal Approximation to the Binomial 194
5-5 Applications of the Binomial Distribution 195
5-6 The Poisson and Exponential Distributions 207
5-6a The Poisson Distribution 207
5-6b The Exponential Distribution 210
5-7 Conclusion 212

6 Decision Making under Uncertainty 222

6-1 Introduction 223
6-2 Elements of Decision Analysis 225
6-2a Identifying the Problem 225
6-2b Possible Decisions 226
6-2c Possible Outcomes 226
6-2d Probabilities of Outcomes 226
6-2e Payoffs and Costs 227
6-2f Decision Criterion 227
6-2g More about the EMV Criterion 228
6-2h Decision Trees 230
6-3 One-Stage Decision Problems 232
6-4 The PrecisionTree Add-In 236
6-5 Multistage Decision Problems 239
6-6 The Role of Risk Aversion 257
6-6a Utility Functions 258
6-6b Exponential Utility 259
6-6c Certainty Equivalents 262
6-6d Is Expected Utility Maximization Used? 263
6-7 Conclusion 264

PART 3 STATISTICAL INFERENCE 277

7 Sampling and Sampling Distributions 279

7-1 Introduction 280
7-2 Sampling Terminology 280
7-3 Methods for Selecting Random Samples 282
7-3a Simple Random Sampling 282
7-3b Systematic Sampling 287
7-3c Stratified Sampling 288
7-3d Cluster Sampling 289
7-3e Multistage Sampling Schemes 290

x Contents
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
 7-4 Introduction to Estimation 292
7-4a Sources of Estimation Error 292
7-4b Key Terms in Sampling 293
7-4c Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean 295
7-4d The Central Limit Theorem 299
7-4e Sample Size Selection 304
7-4f Summary of Key Ideas for Simple Random Sampling 305
7-5 Conclusion 307

8 Confidence Interval Estimation 311

8-1 Introduction 312
8-2 Sampling Distributions 314
8-2a The t Distribution 314
8-2b Other Sampling Distributions 317
8-3 Confidence Interval for a Mean 317
8-4 Confidence Interval for a Total 324
8-5 Confidence Interval for a Proportion 326
8-6 Confidence Interval for a Standard Deviation 331
8-7 Confidence Interval for the Difference between Means 335
8-7a Independent Samples 335
8-7b Paired Samples 339
8-8 Confidence Interval for the Difference between Proportions 342
8-9 Sample Size Selection 344
8-9a Sample Size Selection for Estimation of the Mean 345
8-9b Sample Size Selection for Estimation of Other Parameters 347
8-10 Conclusion 352
9 Hypothesis Testing 363
9-1 Introduction 364
9-2 Concepts in Hypothesis Testing 365
9-2a Null and Alternative Hypotheses 366
9-2b One-Tailed Versus Two-Tailed Tests 366
9-2c Types of Errors 367
9-2d Significance Level and Rejection Region 368
9-2e Significance from p-values 368
9-2f Type II Errors and Power 370
9-2g Hypothesis Tests and Confidence Intervals 371
9-2h Practical versus Statistical Significance 371
9-3 Hypothesis Tests for a Population Mean 372
9-4 Hypothesis Tests for Other Parameters 377
9-4a Hypothesis Tests for a Population Proportion 377
9-4b Hypothesis Tests for Differences between Population Means 379

Contents xi
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
 9-4c Hypothesis Test for Equal Population Variances 387
9-4d Hypothesis Tests for Differences between Population Proportions 388
9-5 Tests for Normality 395
9-6 Chi-Square Test for Independence 401
9-7 Conclusion 406

PART 4 REGRESSION ANALYSIS AND TIME SERIES FORECASTING 415

10 Regression Analysis: Estimating Relationships 417

10-1 Introduction 418
10-2 Scatterplots: Graphing Relationships 421
10-2a Linear versus Nonlinear Relationships 426
10-2b Outliers 426
10-2c Unequal Variance 427
10-2d No Relationship 427
10-3 Correlations: Indicators of Linear Relationships 428
10-4 Simple Linear Regression 430
10-4a Least Squares Estimation 430
10-4b Standard Error of Estimate 438
10-4c The Percentage of Variation Explained: R-Square 440
10-5 Multiple Regression 443
10-5a Interpretation of Regression Coefficients 443
10-5b Interpretation of Standard Error of Estimate and R-Square 446
10-6 Modeling Possibilities 449
10-6a Dummy Variables 450
10-6b Interaction Variables 456
10-6c Nonlinear Transformations 460
10-7 Validation of the Fit 470
10-8 Conclusion 472
11 Regression Analysis: Statistical Inference 482
11-1 Introduction 484
11-2 The Statistical Model 484
11-3 Inferences about the Regression Coefficients 488
11-3a Sampling Distribution of the Regression Coefficients 489
11-3b Hypothesis Tests for the Regression Coefficients and p-Values 491
11-3c A Test for the Overall Fit: The ANOVA Table 492
11-4 Multicollinearity 496
11-5 Include/Exclude Decisions 502
11-6 Stepwise Regression 507
11-7 Outliers 512

xii Contents
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
 11-8 Violations of Regression Assumptions 517
11-8a Nonconstant Error Variance 517
11-8b Nonnormality of Residuals 518
11-8c Autocorrelated Residuals 519
11-9 Prediction 521
11-10 Conclusion 527
12 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting 539
12-1 Introduction 540
12-2 Forecasting Methods: An Overview 541
12-2a Extrapolation Models 541
12-2b Econometric Models 542
12-2c Combining Forecasts 543
12-2d Components of Time Series Data 543
12-2e Measures of Accuracy 546
12-3 Testing for Randomness 548
12-3a The Runs Test 550
12-3b Autocorrelation 552
12-4 Regression-Based Trend Models 556
12-4a Linear Trend 556
12-4b Exponential Trend 559
12-5 The Random Walk Model 562
12-6 Moving Averages Forecasts 565
12-7 Exponential Smoothing Forecasts 570
12-7a Simple Exponential Smoothing 571
12-7b Holt’s Model for Trend 575
12-8 Seasonal Models 580
12-8a Winters’ Exponential Smoothing Model 581
12-8b Deseasonalizing: The Ratio-to-Moving-Averages Method 584
12-8c Estimating Seasonality with Regression 585
12-9 Conclusion 590

PART 5 OPTIMIZATION AND SIMULATION MODELING 597

13 Introduction to Optimization Modeling 599

13-1 Introduction 600
13-2 Introduction to Optimization 601
13-3 A Two-Variable Product Mix Model 602
13-4 Sensitivity Analysis 615
13-4a Solver’s Sensitivity Report 616
13-4b SolverTable Add-In 619
13-4c Comparison of Solver’s Sensitivity Report and SolverTable 626

Contents xiii
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
 13-5 Properties of Linear Models 626
13-6 Infeasibility and Unboundedness 629
13-7 A Larger Product Mix Model 631
13-8 A Multiperiod Production Model 640
13-9 A Comparison of Algebraic and Spreadsheet Models 649
13-10 A Decision Support System 750
13-11 Conclusion 652

14 Optimization Models 661

14-1 Introduction 662
14-2 Employee Scheduling Models 663
14-3 Blending Models 670
14-4 Logistics Models 676
14-4a Transportation Models 677
14-4b Other Logistics Models 685
14-5 Aggregate Planning Models 693
14-6 Financial Models 703
14-7 Integer Optimization Models 714
14-7a Capital Budgeting Models 714
14-7b Fixed-Cost Models 720
14-7c Set-Covering Models 729
14-8 Nonlinear Optimization Models 735
14-8a Basic Ideas of Nonlinear Optimization 735
14-8b Managerial Economics Models 736
14-8c Portfolio Optimization Models 740
14-9 Conclusion 749

15 Introduction to Simulation Modeling 759

15-1 Introduction 760
15-2 Probability Distributions for Input Variables 762
15-2a Types of Probability Distributions 763
15-2b Common Probability Distributions 766
15-2c Using @RISK to Explore Probability Distributions 770
15-3 Simulation and the Flaw of Averages 780
15-4 Simulation with Built-in Excel Tools 783
15-5 Introduction to @RISK 794
15-5a @RISK Features 795
15-5b Loading @RISK 795
15-5c @RISK Models with a Single Random Input Variable 796
15-5d Some Limitations of @RISK 806
15-5e @RISK Models with Several Random Input Variables 806

xiv Contents
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
 15-6 The Effects of Input Distributions on Results 811
15-6a Effect of the Shape of the Input Distribution(s) 812
15-6b Effect of Correlated Input Variables 815
15-7 Conclusion 820

16 Simulation Models 829

16-1 Introduction 831
16-2 Operations Models 831
16-2a Bidding for Contracts 831
16-2b Warranty Costs 835
16-2c Drug Production with Uncertain Yield 840
16-3 Financial Models 847
16-3a Financial Planning Models 847
16-3b Cash Balance Models 852
16-3c Investment Models 857
16-4 Marketing Models 864
16-4a Models of Customer Loyalty 864
16-4b Marketing and Sales Models 872
16-5 Simulating Games of Chance 879
16-5a Simulating the Game of Craps 879
16-5b Simulating the NCAA Basketball Tournament 882
16-6 Conclusion 885

PART 6 ADVANCED DATA ANALYSIS 895

17 Data Mining 897

17-1 Introduction 898
17-2 Data Exploration and Visualization 900
17-2a Introduction to Relational Databases 900
17-2b Online Analytical Processing (OLAP) 901
17-2c Power Pivot and Self-Service BI Tools in Excel 904
17-2d Visualization Software 911
17-3 Classification Methods 912
17-3a Logistic Regression 913
17-3b Neural Networks 918
17-3c Naïve Bayes 923
17-3d Classification Trees 926
17-3e Measures of Classification Accuracy 927
17-3f Classification with Rare Events 930
17-4 Clustering 933
17-5 Conclusion 938

Contents xv
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
 PART 7 BONUS ONLINE MATERIAL 18-1

18 Importing Data into Excel 18-3

18-1 Introduction 18-4
18-2 Rearranging Excel Data 18-5
18-3 Importing Text Data 18-9
18-4 Importing Data into Excel 18-15
18-4a Importing from Access with Old Tools 18-15
18-4b Importing from Access with Power Query 18-16
18-4c Using Microsoft Query 18-18
18-4d SQL Statements and M 18-26
18-4e Web Queries 18-26
18-5 Cleansing Data 18-28
18-6 Conclusion 18-35
19 Analysis of Variance and Experimental Design 19-1
19-1 Introduction 19-2
19-2 One-Way ANOVA 19-5
19-2a The Equal-Means Test 19-5
19-2b Confidence Intervals for Differences between Means 19-8
19-2c Using a Logarithmic Transformation 19-11
19-3 Using Regression to Perform ANOVA 19-17
19-4 The Multiple Comparison Problem 19-20
19-5 Two-Way ANOVA 19-24
19-5a Confidence Intervals for Contrasts 19-31
19-5b Assumptions of Two-Way ANOVA 19-34
19-6 More about Experimental Design 19-35
19-6a Randomization 19-36
19-6b Blocking 19-38
19-6c Incomplete Designs 19-42
19-7 Conclusion 19-45
20 Statistical Process Control 20-1
20-1 Introduction 20-3
20-2 Deming’s 14 Points 20-4
20-3 Introduction to Control Charts 20-7
20-4 Control Charts for Variables 20-9
20-4a Control Charts and Hypothesis Testing 20-15
20-4b Other Out-of-Control Indications 20-16
20-4c Rational Subsamples 20-17
20-4d Deming’s Funnel Experiment and Tampering 20-20
20-4e Control Charts in the Service Industry 20-23

xvi Contents
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
 20-5 Control Charts for Attributes 20-27
20-5a The p Chart 20-27
20-5b The Red Bead Experiment 20-31
20-6 Process Capability 20-34
20-6a Process Capability Indexes 20-37
20-6b More on Motorola and 6-sigma 20-42
20-7 Conclusion 20-45

Appendix A: Statistical Reporting A-1

A-1 Introduction A-1
A-2 Suggestions for Good Statistical Reporting A-2
A-2a Planning A-2
A-2b Developing a Report A-3
A-2c Be Clear A-4
A-2d Be Concise A-5
A-2e Be Precise A-5
A-3 Examples of Statistical Reports A-7
A-4 Conclusion A-18

References 943
Index 945

Contents xvii
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
 Preface
With today’s technology, companies are able to collect tremendous amounts of data with
relative ease. Indeed, many companies now have more data than they can handle. However,
the data are usually meaningless until they are analyzed for trends, patterns, relationships,
and other useful information. This book illustrates in a practical way a variety of methods,
from simple to complex, to help you analyze data sets and uncover important information.
In many business contexts, data analysis is only the first step in the solution of a problem.
Acting on the solution and the information it provides to make good decisions is a critical
next step. Therefore, there is a heavy emphasis throughout this book on analytical methods
that are useful in decision making. Again, the methods vary considerably, but the objective
is always the same—to equip you with decision-making tools that you can apply in your
business careers.
We recognize that the majority of students in this type of course are not majoring in
a quantitative area. They are typically business majors in finance, marketing, operations
management, or some other business discipline who will need to analyze data and make
quantitative-based decisions in their jobs. We offer a hands-on, example-based approach
and introduce fundamental concepts as they are needed. Our vehicle is spreadsheet soft-
ware—specifically, Microsoft Excel®. This is a package that most students already know
and will almost surely use in their careers. Our MBA students at Indiana University have
been so turned on by the required course that is based on this book that almost all of them
(mostly finance and marketing majors) have taken at least one of our follow-up elective
courses in spreadsheet modeling. We are convinced that students see value in quantitative
analysis when the course is taught in a practical and example-based approach.

Rationale for Writing This Book

Business Analytics: Data Analysis and Decision Making is different from the many fine
textbooks written for statistics and management science. Our rationale for writing this
book is based on four fundamental objectives.
■ Integrated coverage and applications. The book provides a unified approach to
business-related problems by integrating methods and applications that have been tra-
ditionally taught in separate courses, specifically statistics and management science.
■ Practical in approach. The book emphasizes realistic business examples and the
processes managers actually use to analyze business problems. The emphasis is not
on abstract theory or computational methods.
■ Spreadsheet-based teaching. The book provides students with the skills to analyze
business problems with tools they have access to and will use in their careers. To
this end, we have adopted Excel and commercial spreadsheet add-ins.
■ Latest tools. This is not a static field. The software keeps changing, and even the
mathematical algorithms behind the software continue to evolve. Each edition of this
book has presented the most recent tools in Excel and the accompanying Excel add-
ins, and the current edition is no exception.

xviii
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
 Integrated Coverage and Applications
In the past, many business schools, including ours at Indiana University, have offered a
required statistics course, a required decision-making course, and a required management
science course—or some subset of these. A current trend, however, is to have only one
required course that covers the basics of statistics, some regression analysis, some decision
making under uncertainty, some linear programming, some simulation, and some advanced
data analysis methods. Essentially, faculty in the quantitative area get one opportunity to
teach all business students, so we attempt to cover a variety of useful quantitative methods.
We are not necessarily arguing that this trend is ideal, but rather that it is a reflection of the
reality at our university and, we suspect, at many others. After several years of teaching
this course, we have found it to be a great opportunity to attract students to the subject and
to more advanced study.
The book is also integrative in another important aspect. It not only integrates a number
of analytical methods, but it also applies them to a wide variety of business problems—that
is, it analyzes realistic examples from many business disciplines. We include examples, prob-
lems, and cases that deal with portfolio optimization, workforce scheduling, market share
analysis, capital budgeting, new product analysis, and many others.

Practical in Approach
This book has been designed to be very example-based and practical. We strongly believe
that students learn best by working through examples, and they appreciate the material
most when the examples are realistic and interesting. Therefore, our approach in the book
differs in two important ways from many competitors. First, there is just enough conceptual
development to give students an understanding and appreciation for the issues raised in the
examples. We often introduce important concepts, such as standard deviation as a measure
of variability, in the context of examples rather than discussing them in the abstract. Our
experience is that students gain greater intuition and understanding of the concepts and
applications through this approach.
Second, we place virtually no emphasis on hand calculations. We believe it is more
important for students to understand why they are conducting an analysis and what it means
than to emphasize the tedious calculations associated with many analytical techniques.
Therefore, we illustrate how powerful software can be used to create graphical and numeri-
cal outputs in a matter of seconds, freeing the rest of the time for in-depth interpretation of
the results, sensitivity analysis, and alternative modeling approaches. In our own courses,
we move directly into a discussion of examples, where we focus almost exclusively on
interpretation and modeling issues, and we let the software perform the number crunching.

Spreadsheet-based Teaching
We are strongly committed to teaching spreadsheet-based, example-driven courses, regard-
less of whether the basic area is data analysis or management science. We have found
tremendous enthusiasm for this approach, both from students and from faculty around the
world who have used our books. Students learn and remember more, and they appreciate
the material more. In addition, instructors typically enjoy teaching more, and they usually
receive immediate reinforcement through better teaching evaluations. We were among the
first to move to spreadsheet-based teaching about two decades ago, and we have never
regretted the move.

Preface xix
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
 What We Hope to Accomplish
in This Book
Condensing the ideas in the previous paragraphs, we hope to:
■ continue to make quantitative courses attractive to a wide audience by making these
topics real, accessible, and interesting;
■ give students plenty of hands-on experience with real problems and challenge them
to develop their intuition, logic, and problem-solving skills;
■ expose students to real problems in many business disciplines and show them how
these problems can be analyzed with quantitative methods; and
■ develop spreadsheet skills, including experience with powerful spreadsheet add-ins,
that add immediate value to students’ other courses and for their future careers.

New in the Sixth Edition

There are several important changes in this edition.
■ MindTap: Offered for the first time with this text, MindTap is a customizable digital
course solution that includes an interactive eBook, auto-graded exercises from the
textbook, author-created videos, flashcards, and more. MindTap includes all videos in
support of the text, using StatTools or using JMP, as well as Excel solutions files for
students to use for checking selected problems from the text (odd-numbered ques-
tions). MindTap also includes a chapter on Spreadsheet Modeling, which is not found
in the print text, as an additional resource for faculty and students. For more informa-
tion on MindTap, as well as ordering options, please contact your Cengage Learning
consultant.
■ Focus on Excel 2016: The newest version of Excel was released just in time for this
book’s revision, so all of the explanations and screenshots are based on this newest
version. Except for cosmetic changes in the user interface, you will see almost no
changes, and if you are still using Excel 2013 or a previous version, you shouldn’t
have any problems following along with this book. However, Excel 2016 does have
some nice features that are included here, including histograms, box plots, and the
“power” tools discussed in Chapters 17 and 18.
■ Revised Chapter 6: The chapter on decision making under uncertainty has been
totally rewritten. Now, a single “new product decisions” example is developed and
extended throughout the chapter to promote continuity.
■ BigPicture diagrams: In the optimization and simulation chapters, it has always
been difficult for students to go from a verbal description of a problem to an eventual
spreadsheet model. In this edition, we include “big picture” diagrams of the models
that will hopefully act as a bridge from the verbal descriptions to the spreadsheet
models. These diagrams have been created from the latest add-in in the Palisade
DecisionTools Suite, the BigPicture add-in. Users of the book have access to
BigPicture, just like @RISK and the other Palisade add-ins.
■ Somewhat less reliance on StatTools: Although we continue to rely on the StatTools
add-in for much of the statistical number crunching, especially in the regression and
time series chapters, we rely on Excel formulas for the “easier” material in the confi-
dence interval and hypothesis testing chapters, where Excel’s functions are perfectly
adequate and might even be more insightful. Nevertheless, we include many brief
videos that walk you through the StatTools procedures. These videos can be found
within the MindTap product that accompanies this text.

xx Preface
Copyright 2017 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
against the King’s men as “rebels and traitors”; but, said the
proclamation, if they would lay down their arms all would be
pardoned—all, that is, except John Hancock and Samuel Adams.
Toward the end of the month British re-enforcements began to arrive,
and on the twenty-fifth the troop-ship Cerebus brought three
generals—Howe, Clinton and Burgoyne.
Don and Jud were in the vicinity of the Green Dragon Tavern a few
days after the Cerebus arrived. They were looking out over the
harbor when Don heard someone call his name, and, turning, he
saw one of the sailors who had helped him from the water the day he
had saved the Redcoat from drowning.
“Hello, there, young Master Donald,” said the fellow—it was Hank.
“There’s the boat out there that brought the three big ones—Howe,
Clinton and Elbow-Room Burgoyne. If they’d side-stepped on the
gangplank, I don’t doubt you’d have jumped in and saved them.”
Don flushed. “I’m not so sure—now,” he replied. “But tell me, why do
you call Burgoyne ‘Elbow-Room’?”
“Why, haven’t you heard that story?” Hank grinned and glanced
round to make sure that no Redcoat was within hearing. “You see,
it’s like this: As the Cerebus was coming in she met a packet bound
for Newport. ‘What news is there?’ Burgoyne shouts to the skipper.
‘The town is surrounded by ten thousand country folk,’ was the reply.
At that the general opens his eyes wide. ‘How many regulars are in
the town?’ he asks. ‘About five thousand,’ the skipper shouts in reply.
Then the general’s eyes open wider than ever, and he cries, ‘What,
ten thousand peasants keep five thousand King’s troops shut up!
Well, let us get in, and we’ll soon find elbow-room!’”
Both boys laughed heartily, and Hank added, “Elbow-Room
Burgoyne it’ll be to the end of his days, now, I suppose.” Hank
lowered his voice. “Let me tell you something, my lads,” he said.
“There’s going to be a big fight before many days have passed.
There must be close to ten thousand Redcoats in the town now, and,
mark my words, they’re not going to sit idle, not they. You lads keep
your eyes fixed on Dorchester Heights and Bunker’s Hill.”
“How do you know all that?” asked Jud.
The sailor solemnly winked his left eye and stuck his tongue into his
left cheek. “The sea-gulls of the air,” he said. “The sea-gulls of the
air.”
Whether or not Hank had secret information about the movements
and intentions of the British troops, it is a fact that on the evening of
the sixteenth of June, while Don and his aunt were sound asleep,
events moved swiftly toward a climax. The army in Cambridge,
determined on driving the King’s troops from the town, took
measures to fortify Bunker Hill, and then almost at the last moment
changed the plan and fortified a hill that was somewhat nearer the
town. All during the night the Continentals labored at throwing up
earthworks; and all the while the stars looked down peacefully, and
the British men-of-war floated serenely with the tide, and the British
patrols cried “All’s well” at frequent intervals.
At dawn Don and his aunt were wakened by the noise of firing; but
by the time they were both down to breakfast the firing had ceased.
“Now what in the world could that have meant?” asked Aunt Martha.
“I’ll find out,” replied Don and ran into the street.
Near the town hall he inquired of a pedestrian what the firing was.
“His Majesty’s ship Lively,” replied the fellow shortly. He was
evidently a Tory. “She fired on some earthworks the rebels have
thrown up over by Charlestown.”
Don waited to hear no more. While he and his aunt were having
breakfast he told her what he had heard. Aunt Martha only sighed.
“Who knows,” she said after a long pause, “but what your uncle and
Glen are over there at Charlestown?”
During the forenoon the firing resumed. The British, it seems, had
brought three or four floating batteries to bear upon the fortifications;
but in spite of the heavy bombardment the Continentals continued to
work.
The day promised to be hot and sultry. The sun, a bright ball of
molten gold, was blazing down on the shingled roofs of the town and
was sending up heat waves from the cobblestoned streets. Don left
off his top coat and turned in the collar of his shirt.
“You don’t look neat and trim, Donald Alden,” said his aunt as he was
about to leave the house.
“It’s too hot, Aunt Martha.”
“You think so perhaps. Well, don’t go far.”
“I’m going to find Jud,” replied Don.
He did not have to go all the way to Hog Alley to find his comrade.
Jud, hot and excited, almost ran into him at the foot of School Street.
“O Don!” he exclaimed. “There’s going to be an awful time—a battle,
sure as you’re alive! I was coming to get you.”
“I know,” said Don. “Everybody’s excited. And did you hear the firing
early this morning?”
“Come up to the Common,” said Jud. “The Redcoats are all on
parade. They’re going to march off, I think.”
The boys found the Common a scene of intense activity. There
seemed to be Redcoats everywhere. Some were in formation; some
were hurrying to join their companies that were assembling, and all
seemed to be carrying arms and full equipment. The sun flashed on
glistening swords and buckles and seemed to turn each bright red
coat into a vivid blaze of fire. And overhead the graceful limbs of the
great old elms waved gently to and fro like gigantic lacy green fans.
“Look,” said Don, “there’s the 43rd, Harry Hawkins’s regiment.”
“Yes, and there’s Hawkins himself,” replied Jud. “See him—that big
fellow?”
Don bit his lips and said nothing. He did not dare put into words the
thoughts that had come crowding into his mind at sight of the only
Redcoat for whom he had the least affection.
“There’s the grenadiers,” said Jud; “and the new regiment, the 35th
and the 49th.”
“Yes, and there are the marines,” added Don. “They all look pretty
fine, don’t they?”
“They look fine enough now,” replied Jud, “but just you wait till our
men get a shot at them. You know how it was at Lexington and
Concord.”
Don knew indeed, and the thought of that memorable day cheered
him considerably.
By now most of the troops had assembled, and one regiment already
was marching off. The boys hastened to follow along Common
Street.
“My, but it’s hot! Whew!” cried Jud. “I’m most melted.”
“I am too,” Don grinned. “I’m glad I don’t have to carry a pack and a
musket. Just listen to the firing now!”
Although the sun was high overhead, neither boy thought of being
hungry. Down Queen Street they hurried and past the town hall into
King Street. People were standing on street corners and watching
from doors and windows as the King’s troops swung past over the
rough street. Small boys, shouting loudly to one another, were
hurrying along beside the splendid, well-disciplined columns; and
dogs of all sizes were running here and there, barking shrilly. One
little fellow, all black with white spots, ran diagonally through the
column and then, turning swiftly, ran back again as if for the sole
purpose of showing that he could do it.
The boys saw the regiment march out upon Long Wharf, where
boats were waiting to carry them north toward Charlestown. Then
they saw another and another regiment swing down King Street and
move out upon the wharf.
“Are they all going to embark here?” asked Jud.
“No,” replied a man who was standing near by. “Some of ’em are on
the way to North Battery.”
“Come on up there then,” said Don.
When the boys reached the battery most of the British who were
embarking at that point were already in the boats.
By now some of the people in the North End had climbed to the roofs
of their houses, from which points they would have an unobstructed
view of Charlestown across the water and of the men-of-war. As the
boys were coming from the North Battery, Jud shouted to a man who
was perched astride his gabled roof: “Hey, there, is there room for
two more?”
“Come right along if you’re not Tories,” replied the man. “I reckon it
wouldn’t be safe for a Tory up here beside me to-day.”
Jud, impetuous by nature, ran to the ladder that was leaning against
the house, and Don, naturally cautious but in the excitement forgetful
of everything, followed him. In a minute the boys were beside the
man—John Short, a saddle-maker—and were looking eagerly
across the water.
 CHAPTER X
FROM A HOUSETOP

The two boys and their patriotic friend, the saddle-maker, saw the
barges loaded with red-clad soldiers steering for the point northeast
of Charlestown and later saw the barges return for more troops.
Close in toward the Charlestown shore they could see the men-of-
war Falcon, Lively, Somerset and Symmetry, and all were firing at
the little redoubt on the hill beyond the town.
“Who’s that walking along the top of the fort there?” Don asked
suddenly.
“Whoever he is, he’d better keep down,” said Jud.
“I can’t be sure at this distance,” replied the saddle-maker, “but from
the size and appearance of him I’d say he was Colonel Prescott.”
Afterward the boys learned that the man was Colonel Prescott and
that his apparent disregard for the fire of the British was for the
purpose of heartening the men within the fort.
About mid-afternoon all the fire from the men-of-war and the British
batteries seemed to concentrate on the little fort.
“There they go!” cried Short. “The attack’s begun.”
The regulars were advancing in two divisions; one division moved
straight up the hill toward the fort; the other moved toward the
fortifications beyond the hill—which could not be seen from the roof.
Burdened with heavy equipment, and with the hot sun blazing down
on their heads, the British walked slowly over the uneven ground.
When they had gone some distance they opened fire and continued
to fire as they advanced. A few scattering shots from the hill
answered them.
“Our men are withholding their fire till it’ll count,” said Short. “A wise
thing to do.”
“Well, I wish they’d hurry and fire,” said Jud. “Just see how close the
Redcoats are to the fort!”
The stretch of green and brown field between the redoubt and the
front line of advancing regulars was growing smaller and smaller.
From beyond the hill came a rattling roar of muskets and of field-
pieces. Then came a heavy volley from the fort.
“Look! Look!” cried Short and in his excitement almost let go his
hold.
The regulars returned the fire, and then amid the rattling, crackling
hail of musket balls the ranks wavered and then broke. Down the hill
haphazard the trained troops of King George retreated; but they left
many of their number behind on the slope.
Meanwhile shells that had fallen inside Charlestown had set many of
the wooden buildings on fire, and the flames were spreading with
great rapidity. Blue smoke was curling upward from the spires of the
public buildings to mingle with the deeper blue of the sky. Little
tongues of yellow flame were licking the sides and roofs of many of
the smaller houses. In a few minutes the crash of falling beams
mingled with the roar and rattle of cannon and musket.
The regulars rallied and advanced again, but they could not go far in
the face of the terrible fire that poured down upon them. As at
Lexington, Don could see red-coated officers urging and threatening
their men with brightly gleaming swords, but it was of no use. Again
the lines broke, and the King’s troops retreated, this time in greater
disorder than the first.
“They’re brave men; I’ll say that for them,” said Short.
Don and Jud thought so too, but neither said a word; the terrible
spectacle seemed to have taken away their power to speak.
It was a long time before the Redcoats rallied and advanced for the
third time.
“They’ve left off their knapsacks this trip,” said Short. “They’ll do
better, I’m thinking.”
It was only too true, for the gallant Americans had used most of their
ammunition. They met the attack bravely, and then the fire from the
fort suddenly slackened. In a few minutes the regulars were at the
walls. Then a great cloud of dust rose above the works as the
defenders reluctantly gave way. The British, who were on three sides
of the redoubt, rushed forward and, swarming over the walls, sent up
a great cheer, which came faintly across the water. Then they
opened fire on the retreating Continentals.
The boys could see little groups of soldiers beyond on the slopes of
Bunker Hill, but by now the dust was so thick that they could hardly
distinguish which side the men belonged to. Intermittent firing
continued for some time, and the warm air was saturated with the
pungent odor of powder.
“Victory for the Redcoats,” said Jud in a choking voice, and Don
nodded in agreement. There was such a lump in his throat that he
would not trust himself to speak.
“Well, maybe,” said Short, “but I’m a-thinking it’s a pretty costly
victory for old King George.”
And so it proved to be. The town of Boston wore a gloomy aspect
during the next few days. The King’s troops, who had looked so fine
on parade on the morning of the battle, went about dispiritedly and
muttered among themselves at the awful price that they had paid for
the hill.
When Don reached home late that evening the sound of cannon was
still ringing in his ears—indeed the guns did not cease firing until the
next afternoon. He told his aunt what he had seen, but omitted a
good deal out of sympathy for her feelings. But though Aunt Martha
had not seen so much as her nephew she seemed to know quite as
much about what had happened as he did; and all her anxiety, all her
thoughts were for her husband and for Glen Drake.
Almost all of the next day, which was Sunday, she spent in reading
the Bible; nor would she permit her nephew to stir from the house. “I
want you with me, Donald,” she said. “Something tells me that your
uncle was in the battle, and something tells me that everything did
not go just right.”
“But, Aunt Martha, you can’t be sure,” said Don. “I’m just going to
suppose that he was there and didn’t get a scratch.”
Although Aunt Martha did not reply her eyes said plainly that she
wished she could think as her nephew did.
To relieve the depressed and disgruntled Redcoats the Tories took
upon themselves the work of patrolling the streets at night. Every
evening forty-nine of them went on duty, and once Don saw Tom
Bullard, dressed in a green uniform, hurrying importantly along
Cornhill apparently with a message from his chief, General Ruggles.
That was the same evening after General Gage had issued another
proclamation calling upon the townspeople again to turn over to him
any firearms that they still possessed.
“Aunt Martha,” said Don, “you know there’s some powder among
that stuff in the cellar. Do you suppose we’d better turn that in?”
“No,” replied his aunt firmly. “Only to have the Redcoats use it
against our own men! Never! If the cellar were full of swords and
muskets, I’d not say a word about them to anyone who wears a red
coat. Maybe some day that powder will be useful in the hands of
those who really deserve it.”
It was now nearing the end of June, but not a word, not the slightest
hint concerning the fate of either David Hollis or Glen Drake had
reached Aunt Martha’s ears. Together Don and his aunt had visited
the hospitals where both Americans and British wounded soldiers
were being cared for; yet not a thing could they find out. Instead of
feeling encouraged, however, Aunt Martha became more and more
worried, and oddly enough Don soon began to feel much as she did.
One bit of information of quite a different sort did, however, seep into
the beleaguered town. Rumor had it that a valiant soldier from
Virginia—Col. George Washington—was coming to Cambridge to
take command of the entire Continental army. Don heard the news
from Jud, who in turn had heard it from a storekeeper in Orange
Street.
“Col. George Washington—why, he was with Braddock and saved
what remained of the British army after the French and Indians had
ambushed them.” Don’s eyes were wide with admiration. “When’s he
coming, Jud? Say, he’s a great man!”
“He’s one of the finest soldiers there ever was,” said Jud. “He’ll make
things hum when he arrives. Give him an army and he won’t be long
in driving the Redcoats into the sea!”
“When’s he coming?” Don asked again.
“Oh, in a few days, so they say. I heard that he’s already on his way
and that Congress had made him commander-in-chief just a day or
so before the fight over Charlestown way.”
“I’d surely like to see him,” said Don. “Glen Drake knows him and
has fought beside him. He says he’s the finest looking man he ever
saw.”
“Have you heard anything of Glen or your uncle?”
Don immediately became grave. “Not a word, Jud,” he replied.
The first two weeks in July came and passed, and it was known
definitely that General Washington had reached Cambridge and had
taken command of the army beneath a large spreading elm tree.
Still no word came concerning David Hollis. Aunt Martha went
mechanically about her housework and had got into the habit of
reading much and of talking little. Other people who had relatives in
the Continental army had managed to get word of them—somehow;
but David Hollis and his friend, the trapper,—it seemed at times
almost as if they never had existed.
The friendship between David and Jud seemed to grow stronger
each day, and the boys spent most of their time together. One
evening, Jud, in response to an invitation from Aunt Martha, came to
spend the afternoon and night at the house in Pudding Lane. The
boys had intended to go fishing that afternoon, but unfortunately rain
began to fall around noon and increased to a steady, violent
downpour as the afternoon wore on.
By five o’clock it was so dark that Aunt Martha had to light a candle
in order to see to read. Rain was still falling, and with it came a
heavy fog that swept like smoke through the narrow streets.
“It’s good we didn’t so fishing,” said Jud. “This is a regular northeast
storm. Probably it will last for two or three days.”
“Yes, and it’s growing cold,” said Aunt Martha. “Donald, I think we’d
better have a fire.”
Between the two of them the boys soon had a cheerful, crackling fire
on the hearth; and by the light of it Aunt Martha became more like
her old self. During supper she laughed frequently with the boys,
especially when Jud told of his many pets. And afterward she played
fox and geese with them. “I declare, Jud,” she said, “I’m glad you
came.”
The evening passed swiftly and pleasantly, though outside the wind
was howling and sending the heavy drops of rain spattering against
the windows.
Don and Jud had finished their last game, and Aunt Martha was
looking at them inquiringly, when suddenly the knocker on the door
rose and fell.
“Oh!” cried Aunt Martha, startled.
“Now who can that be?” said Don and went to the door.
He opened it a crack and then stepped backward in astonishment as
a man pushed his way inside and hastily closed the door behind him.
“Glen—Glen!” cried Aunt Martha and fairly flew to meet the visitor.
Don was too much surprised to speak. He only looked on dumbly as
the old trapper caught his aunt’s hands and drew her swiftly into the
shadows away from the window.
“Glen,” said Aunt Martha, “only one thing could bring you here—
David——”
“Is well,” replied the trapper and sat down in one of the chairs. “He’s
been sick, Martha—he was wounded at Bunker’s Hill—but he’s
doing well. There’s no cause for worry.”
Aunt Martha drew a deep breath and sank into a chair beside him.
“Don, my boy, how are you?” asked Glen. “I see you’re taking good
care of your aunt. And this——” He glanced at Jud searchingly for a
moment.
“This is Jud Appleton,” said Aunt Martha. “Don’s close companion
and as loyal as any of us.”
Jud winced under the trapper’s grip and from that moment would
have followed his lead anywhere.
“I told you he’d come if he wanted to,” whispered Don.
Though Glen was naturally a man of few words he did most of the
talking during the two hours that he remained at the house in
Pudding Lane. He had crossed from Cambridge under cover of rain
and darkness and would return the same way. David Hollis, he said,
had received a ball through the shoulder during the third assault of
the Redcoats on the hill and was now at Cambridge, where he would
probably remain until he was fully recovered; then he would rejoin
his company.
Glen had had two reasons for coming, it seemed; one was to
acquaint Aunt Martha with the exact condition of her husband; the
other was to bring money, which both he and David Hollis feared she
was sorely in need of.
For perhaps half an hour he and Aunt Martha talked in low whispers.
Then he raised his voice and spoke of events that had happened
concerning the Continental army, and both boys bent forward
eagerly to listen.
“You boys just ought to see Cambridge,” he said. “Soldiers
everywhere—fine-looking fellows from up north, dark, handsome
boys from the South. I tell you it’s a sight to see them on parade.
And tents—hundreds of ’em of all sorts. Those of the Rhode
Islanders are all canvas, but the others—why, they’re part sailcloth
and part wood, and some are mostly mud and branches. And
fortifications all over; Boston Neck and Charlestown Neck are sealed
tight, you might say.”
Glen paused and filled his pipe. “It’s a funny thing,” he continued;
“not many years ago the settlers faced their fortifications the
opposite way to protect their homes against the Injuns; now it’s an
enemy from the east they’ve got to protect themselves against.”
“And have you seen Colonel Washington?” asked Jud.
“Seen him! I should say so!” The old trapper’s face lighted up, and
his eyes gleamed in the shadows. “There’s not a better officer alive.
He’s what you call an officer and a gentleman, and he looks the part
every inch when he’s on his big horse. He wears a blue uniform
faced with buff and a black cockade in his hat—but you ought to see
him. I’m no hand at describing.”
Glen had another talk alone with Aunt Martha before he finally shook
everyone by the hand, bade them keep up their spirits and then,
muffling his face with the collar of his coat, slipped noiselessly out
into the night.
“Now, you boys, to bed with you,” said Aunt Martha. “And don’t lie
awake, talking.”
But her good advice was given in vain; the boys lay awake until long
into the night, talking of the wily old trapper who somehow had
entered the town right under the Redcoats’ nose without their
knowing it.
“I told you he’d come if he wanted to,” Don repeated exultantly.
“Yes, and he’ll get back easily too,” said Jud. “I’d pity any Redcoat
who tried to stop him.”
“So would I,” said Don, thinking of how Glen had acted on the
evening when they had crossed the flats together and had met the
British sentry.
“Are you boys asleep?” came the voice of Aunt Martha.
Only the echoes answered her question.
 CHAPTER XI
THE LIBERTY TREE

By the end of July both the people of Boston and the King’s soldiers
were beginning to feel the ill effects of the siege. One of the main
troubles was the food. Civilian and soldier alike were obliged to eat
much salt fish and meat—so much in fact that sickness and fever
broke out, especially in the army. Don and his aunt were rather
better off than most folks, for at the beginning of the trouble the store
had been well stocked, and, moreover, Aunt Martha now had money
with which to buy fresh eggs and vegetables.
With the increasing discontent owing to improper food individual
Redcoats became more arrogant toward the townsfolk, whom they
far outnumbered. There were fewer than seven thousand
inhabitants; whereas, the troops and their dependents numbered
close to fourteen thousand.
“Oh, dear,” said Aunt Martha, “how is it ever going to end? How
much longer are we to live this way, insulted and persecuted on
every hand?”
“It seems that every time they have a skirmish with Washington’s
men,” said Don, “they take their spite out on us. Well, just you wait,
Aunt Martha; General Washington will show them he means
business. He can’t do it now because his army isn’t ready; he has to
train his men. And besides, he needs more powder and cannon and
——”
“Why, Donald, where do you learn all these things?”
“Oh, Jud and I hear folks talking. Sometimes we hear when we’re
pretending not to. Jud says that’s the thing to do.”
Aunt Martha smiled and shook her head.
“We were down on Essex Street yesterday near the Liberty Tree,”
Don continued, “and heard some Tories and Redcoats talking. One
of the Tories said, ‘These stubborn rebels’—meaning us, Aunt
Martha,—‘think they’ll do wonders now that they’ve appointed a
Virginian head of their upstart army; but they’re wrong; if great
Cæsar himself were head of that army he couldn’t make ’em stand
up and fight!’
“Then one of the soldiers—I thought at first it was Harry Hawkins, but
it wasn’t—faced around quick and said, ‘Were you at Lexin’ton or
Bunker’s Hill?’
“‘No,’ the Tory replied.
“‘Well, then,’ said the Redcoat, ‘what do you know about it? I was at
Lexin’ton, and I was over at Charlestown last June, and I know they
can fight. I hate ’em just as much as you do, my friend,’ he said, ‘but
I respect them too. They can fight. If they’d had lots of powder, we’d
never have taken that hill. And another thing, I know this man
Washington. I should say I do! I was with Braddock. And when
Washington gets his army trained and has plenty of ammunition I tell
you we’re a-going to have a fight on our hands, and don’t you forget
it!’”
“What did the Tory say?” asked Aunt Martha.
“He didn’t say anything. He just shrugged his shoulders and turned
away. That’s how a Tory is, Aunt Martha; he’ll talk a lot and let the
Redcoats do the fighting.”
Certainly the Tories had much to talk about. It must have given them
much satisfaction to see their neighbors imprisoned on false
charges. Mr. Lovell, the schoolmaster, charged with being a spy, was
confined for sixty-five days. John Gill, a close friend of Don’s uncle,
was imprisoned for twenty-nine days for printing what had
displeased General Gage.
But even numerous vexations and wrongs of that sort were not
enough to satisfy the Tories. They themselves were suffering from
the siege, and they wanted to punish the whole people of Boston,
who they said were the cause of their suffering. Just what a
malicious form of punishment they chose Don and Jud were soon to
learn.
Early one morning the two boys were on their way to Coffin’s Field to
get bait for fishing. Each was lightly dressed, and both were hurrying
along briskly. The sun was pushing its way up warm and bright and
seemed to promise a good day. They had come down Newbury
Street and were turning into Essex when Jud pointed to the Liberty
Tree, a great elm that stood on the southeast corner. “That’s what I
call the finest tree that ever grew,” he said.
“It surely is pretty,” replied Don; “just look how dainty and green the
leaves are, and how the limbs curve way up and hang over like long
ferns. Yes, I’d say an elm is about the finest tree that ever grew.”
“I wasn’t thinking of the appearance of it so much,” Jud replied,
“though it surely is a beauty. I was thinking rather of what it means. It
stands for Liberty. Don’t you remember how, whenever there used to
be trouble with King George, folks would flock to the tree?”
“They do still, for that matter.”
“Well, yes, but I was thinking of one night when I was just a little
fellow. I don’t remember just what had happened—the repeal of a
stamp law maybe—anyway Ma took me to the tree, and there it was
covered with lanterns and a big flag flying from the pole in the centre
up there, and everybody was laughing and singing and ringing bells.
Oh, it surely was fine!”
Still talking about the tree, the boys went on down Essex Street and
a few minutes later were at Coffin’s Field. Jud led the way to a far
corner of it, where they began to dig.
For almost three-quarters of an hour they worked, turning over great
clods of earth; but grub worms, which they particularly wanted, were
scarce.
“How many have we got?” asked Don.
Jud counted them. “Only fourteen,” he replied. “Let’s try over there
behind that pig-pen.”
The ground behind the pig-pen proved somewhat better, and at last,
with a fair supply of worms, the boys started back along Essex
Street.
They were perhaps half-way to Newbury Street when they heard
loud talking and boisterous laughter. A minute later they saw a crowd
—mostly soldiers and Tories—at the corner.
Suddenly the two boys stopped short. Don grasped Jud’s arm and in
a choking voice cried, “See what they’ve done!”
Jud was speechless; his lips moved, but he made no sound. There
in front of them, the centre of a boorish mob, lay the Liberty Tree! It
had been cut down near the base. The delicate leaves and slender
twigs were being trampled underfoot as Tories and Redcoats moved
here and there, laughing, shouting and swearing. Great limbs that
once had swayed so gracefully in the breeze were scattered about
along the street; deep white gashes showed where the cruel axe had
bitten into them. And the odor of green wood filled the moist warm
air.
“J-Jud!” cried Don.
But Jud did not utter a word. His ruddy face was pale, and his
cheeks seemed suddenly hollow.
“Well, what do you think of your fine tree now?” said a mocking
voice.
Both boys turned and confronted—Tom Bullard.
“You dirty, sneaking chicken-thief!” cried Jud and would have hurled
himself against the Tory if Don had not held him.
“Now, none of that,” said Tom and retreated a step or two. Then he
turned and walked away, whistling.
“See here,” said a bystander, “I guess you boys feel as bad as I do
about it, but don’t be hotheads. They’re too many for us.”
“How did it happen?” asked Don unsteadily.
“Job Williams, the Tory, led the mob,” replied the man. “And a mob it
surely was. Such a lot of swearing and yelling—it’s good you missed
it. Redcoats and Tories alike swarmed up the tree like so many thick-
lipped gorillas. But it wasn’t all fine for them. Just before you came
one of the soldiers in the topmost branches missed his hold and fell.
I saw him fall; he was killed!”
“Good!” cried Jud, clenching his fists.
“That’s just what I said.” The man smiled. “They carted him off a few
minutes ago. It was the hand of Providence that did it, my lads, and
the hand of Providence will account for many more of them before
long.”
“Let’s get out of here,” said Don. “It makes me sick to look. Just hear
’em yelling.”
Each boy picked up a twig from the street, and, thrusting it into his
pocket, hurried up Newbury Street toward Hog Alley.
There was no fishing for Don or for Jud that day. What they had seen
in the morning had taken away all their desire for sport. And Aunt
Martha felt quite as bad about the destruction of the tree as the boys
did. “If there’s one thing I can’t abide,” she said, “it’s spite work.”
The Liberty Tree yielded the soldiers fourteen cords of wood, but
they had paid dearly for it. Other trees also were cut down for the
sake of the wood, and before winter set in the Common had lost
many of its fine old elms.
September passed, and with the turning of the leaves Don longed to
go forth into the woods. “Say, Aunt Martha,” he remarked one day, “I
never knew that the town was so small. There’s no place to go
without seeing Redcoats. I’d like to go off somewhere in the woods.”
“Have patience, Donald. Maybe if you wait, some day the whole
continent will be free for you to come and go in as you please.”
“Do you think the Colonies will be independent, Aunt Martha? Do you
really want them to be?”
“Yes. I think it, and I hope it.” Aunt Martha’s lips were set in a straight
line, as they had been when she had told her husband that she
would not leave her home for the sake of a Redcoat.
Don was about to make some reply when he spied Jud outside the
window; he was hurrying up the street, and there was an eager look
in his eyes.
“Hello, Jud,” Don greeted him as he opened the door. “What’s the
news?”
“Good news,” Jud replied breathlessly. “I’ve heard that old Gage is
going back to England. How glad I am!”
“Say, where did you hear that?” asked Don.
“Over near Faneuil Hall. I was listening again.” Jud grinned.
“Who’s to take his place?” asked Aunt Martha.
“Don’t know yet. But won’t it be fine to see old Gage go? He’s
caused enough trouble for half a dozen men.”
The news proved to be true enough. On the tenth of October,
General Gage sailed for England, never to return. Lord Howe, who
had commanded the British in the assault at Charlestown, took
Gage’s place. He was popular with the troops, but with the suffering
townsfolk he was a poor substitute for the unpopular Gage. The
proclamations that he issued were irritating at best; he seemed to
think only of the safety and comfort of his soldiers.
One of his first acts was to erect new fortifications. Then he
requisitioned private dwellings and some of the meeting-houses for
the use of his men.
 CHAPTER XII
A BLUSTERING SERGEANT-MAJOR

“Donald, someone’s at the door. Hurry and answer it.” Aunt

Martha’s voice sounded from her nephew’s room up-stairs, which
she was sweeping.
Knock, knock—knock!
“He’s pretty anxious to make us hear,” said Don as he crossed the
floor of the living-room.
Knock!
Don opened the door and looked full into the face of a red-haired,
red-coated British sergeant-major, who at once inserted his foot and
pushed his way inside the room. “Who lives here besides yourself,
young sire?” he demanded.
Don stared at him and thought he had never seen such an ugly-
looking fellow. He was big and broad and flabby, and the only thing
about him that was not red, it seemed, were his eyes, which were a
pale, washed-out blue.
“Don’t stand there and stare!” the sergeant-major bellowed. “Tell me
who lives here.”
“My Aunt Martha Hollis and I and my uncle David, who’s with the
Continental army just at present,” replied Don.
The soldier snorted and then hurried to face Aunt Martha, who had
come down-stairs. “Is that right?” he asked in a surly but milder
voice.
“My nephew has told you the truth,” Aunt Martha replied with dignity.
“How many rooms are in the house?”
“The living-room and three rooms up-stairs.”