C-Bello Fika

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International Journal of

Economics Development Research, Volume 4(2), 2023


pp. 580-594

What Explains the Duration of Unemployment


among the Educated First Job Seekers in the
Republic of Congo?
Henri Bello Fika 1

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to identify the determinants of the duration of unemployment among
the educated first job seekers in the Republic of Congo. To achieve this goal, we make use of
data which have been constructed from the database of the School-to-Work Transition
Survey (SWTS) carried out in Congo in 2015 by Iinternational Labor Organization (ILO)
among people who are between 15 and 29 years old. The sample formed for our study is
made up of people who have at least a primary educational level, who have been employed at
least once in their life and who have stopped study or training before getting their first job.
The sample is made up of 1,171 individuals including 565 males and 606 females. Using
these data, we perform a descriptive statistical analysis supplemented by an explanatory
analysis based on the Poisson regression model. The explanatory variables we choose are:
the educational and qualification level, the area of training, gender, age and the type of
employment. Our main finding is that the trainig area and level are important factors of the
school-to-first-job transition. This transition is shorter for people who have a background in
the fields of applied sciences (Production and Process Engineering, Maths and Computer
Science, Medicine, Agriculture, Management business). Hence, the point is not only to
increase the human capital stock, but also to form a human capital structure that
corresponds to the real needs of the economy, so that the duration of the transition between
the cessation of studies or training and access to the first job is considerably reduced.

Keywords: Poisson regression model, Republic of Congo, School-to-first-job transition.

1. Introduction

With the highest unemployment rate in the CEMAC Sub-region (ranging from
19.8% in 2005 to 23% in 2021), the Republic of Congo is characterized by a weak
economic performance. Its growth rate has remained negative since 2015, oscillating
between -3.6 and -0.1%, despite progress in terms of human capital formation. This
combination of negative growth rates, high unemployment rates and an increase in

1African
Center for International, Diplomatic, Economic and Strategic Studies (CEIDES), Yaoundé,
Cameroon, bellofikah@gmail.com
Henri Bello Fika
581

the stock of human capital suggests a problem of equilibrium that could be solved by
looking for the individual causes of unemployment.

According to the data collected in the framework of the School-to-Work Transition


Survey (SWTS) in the Republic of Congo in 2015, more than 50% (52.7%) of the
unemployed people are those who have never been employed. This fact illustrates
the role of experience on the probability of having a job. Thus, having a first job is a
real challenge in this country as in many others because the first job is very crucial
for the professional trajectory. It is indeed much easier for an unemployed person
who has been employed at least once to be hired once again. Hence, the search for
solutions to increase the probability for a first-time jobseeker to be recruited is an
important lever in the fight against unemployment. In addition, to prevent
unemployment from becoming structural, it is important to address its duration.

That is why this paper focuses on the determinants of the duration of Unemployment
among the educated first job seekers in the Republic of Congo, where the estimated
average of this duration is 25 months (about 2 years). The paper therefore answers
the following question: what explains the duration of unemployment among the
educated first job seekers in the Republic of Congo? To answer this question, we
first present a brieve literature review before developing the empirical evidence
where we present the methodology, the expected results and the empirical results.
After that, there is a discussion and a conclusion followed by some
recommendations.

The review of the literature reveals that there is no work aiming at determining the
factors of the duration of Unemployment among the educated first job seekers in the
Republic of Congo. This article aims to fill this knowledge gap, using a Poison
regression model.

2. Theoretical Background

The study of the duration of unemployment is now at the heart of the analysis of the
functioning of the labour market. It is indeed a transversal theme that can be found
in theories of different nature. Foremost among them are approaches to job search
(Stigler, 1962; Burdett, Kiefer, Mortensen and Neuman, 1984; Deer, 1987), models
of matching, efficiency wages or approaches through labour market segmentation
(Doeringer and Piore, 1971; Cain, 1976). The relevance of this topic mobilizes
several researchers to conduct the analysis at a microeconomic level (Flemish 2016,
Le Rhun and Pollet 2011, Nauze-Fichet and Tomasini 2002).

Many studies have attempted to assess the explanatory factors of the duration of
unemployment, for example, by studying the effects of individual characteristics,
economic conditions, unemployment benefit rules (Cockx, 2018) or labour flows on
the labour market (Fortin et al., 1999) which are the key empirical fact that requires
a revision of the Walrassian paradigm (Diamond, 1987). This theoretical revision
Henri Bello Fika
582

presupposes a rigorous description of the phenomenon (Lancaster, 1979) most often


postulating a particular specification. This type of study has been gradually replaced
by a structural approach that explicitly models individual behaviours and is based on
"job search" models (Atkinson, 1984; Heckman and Singer, 1984; Kiefer 1988;
Lancaster 1990). Most of these studies focused on the United States in terms of data
availability.

Several studies enriching the understanding of the duration of unemployment have


developed with various conclusions. Fougère (2000) highlights the individual
demographic and socio-economic characteristics on which employers base their
hiring selection strategies. Other work has also improved the understanding of the
phenomenon by taking into account the socio-professional category of the individual
(Bonnal and Fougère, 1990) or the difference in individual factors and professional
experience according to the type of job found (Joutard and Werquin, 1992).

The growth and persistence of unemployment are worrying by the evolution of its
physiognomy, which highlights the duality between graduates and non-graduates
(Bougroum and Ibourk, 2003) and the problem of exit from unemployment with
seniority to unemployment (Cases and Lolivier, 1994), as well as the taking into
account of the types of categories (Lê, Le Minez and Rey, 2013). On the other hand,
other studies have highlighted the negative temporal dependence of the risk of exit
from unemployment explained by the heterogeneous nature of the cohorts of
unemployment entries (Di Paola and Moullet, 2003; Heckman and Singer, 1984),
better known as "movers-stayers".

Some studies on long-term unemployment have been observed in Africa. The work
of N’Guessan (2015) in Côte d'Ivoire highlights the effect of the unemployment rate
and the density of the commune of residence of the unemployed on the intensity of
the job search and the choice of job search methods. Chort et al. (2014) conclude for
Senegal that apprenticeship is a decisive factor in entering the labour market, based
on competing risky duration models.

3. Methodology

The Variables
The dependant variable is the duration of unemployment, that is, the difference
between the year that the individual surveyed got his first job and the year that the
individual surveyed stopped study or training. This is the duration of the school-to-
first-job transition.

The main explanatory variables are those which capture the global structure of
human capital. We have selected the two following variables for that:
- the first variable that we call EducQualifLevel gives us information about the
educational as well as the qualification level of the individual surveyed ;
Henri Bello Fika
583

- the second variable that we call TrainingArea gives information about the area
of training of the individual surveyed.
The other explanatory variables are gender, age and the type of employment (paid
employment, self-employment or unpaid job).

The Data
The data are constructed from the database of the School-to-Work Transition Survey
(SWTS) carried out in Congo in 2015 by Iinternational Labor Organization (ILO)
among individuals who are between 15 and 29 years old. The sample formed for our
study is made up of people who have at least a primary education level, who have
had a job at least once in their life and who have stopped studying or training before
getting their first job. The sample is made up of 1,171 individuals including 565
males and 606 females. It should be noted that the SWTS 2015 is the more recent
SWTS for Congo. The data are relatively old, but not enough to significantly affect
the accuracy of the research results.

Table 1 below presents the different modalities of the above-mentioned independent


variables and the sign of the awaited coefficients.

Table 1. The different modalities of the independent variables and the expected
sign of the coefficients in the model
Expected sign of
the contribution to
Variables Modalities Values the explanation of
the duration of
unemployment
General training/Arts&lettres 1 +++
Education/Services 2 +
Area of study/training Sociales sciences/Bussines/Law 3 +/-
Maths/Computer science/Process&Production Ingeneering 4 ---
Agriculture/Medical sciences&Social protection* 5 --
Basic Education 1 +/-
General secondary education 2 ++
Educational/Qualif. Level Technical secondary education 3 --
Professional education 4 -
University/Post graduate* 5 +/-
15-19 years old 1 +
Age 20-24 years old 2 -
25-29 years old* 3 +/-
Male 1 +/-
Gender
Female* 2 +/-

(-) = weak negative effect; (--) = strong negative effect; (+) = weak positive effect; (++) = strong
positive effect; (+++) = very strong positive effect; (+/-) = positive or negative effect.
(*) = Modality of reference
Source: The author (through the use of the SWTS, Congo, by ILO).

The Method
Henri Bello Fika
584

To analyze the determinants of the duration of employment, use descriptive analysis


as well as explanatory analysis.
For the explanatory analysis, we estimate the parameters of a Poisson regression
model presented as follows:

with the dependant variable ; the vector of parameters to be


estimated ; the vector of independant variables.
Performing a Poisson regression is assuming that follows a parameter Poisson
distribution given by

It should be remembered that the fish law is given by

We can rewrite the model (1) above in the following linearized form:

If there is a collection m of independent couples , can be estimated by


maximum likelihood.
The Poisson regression model is also suitable to explain discrete quantitative
variables.

4. Empirical Findings/Result

a) Descriptive results
The distribution of the unemployment duration in the sample
Overall, almost 50% of people in the sample have had their first job in less than one
12 months after they left school or stopped training. 1 in five people (21%) have had
his first job one one year after leaving school or stopping training. Globally, about
90% of people in the sample have had their first job within the first 5 years
following training/school système leaving (see Figure 1). One can also notice that
the distribution curve is convexe.
Henri Bello Fika
585

Figure 1. The distribution of the unemployment duration


Source: The author (through the use of the SWTS, Congo, by ILO).

The impacts of Demographic factors (age and gender)


Figures 2 and 3 below depict the impacts of gender and age on the average duration
of unemployment among educated first job seekers.

Figure 2. Gender and the average duration of


unemployment among educated first job Figure 3. Age and the average duration of
seekers unemployment among educated first job seekers

Source: The author (through the use of the SWTS, Congo, by ILO).

Figure 2 shows that the average duration of unemployment after studying or training
is greater among females than among males. But the test of student concludes that
this gap is statistically significant at 10% threshold. The Khi-square association test
results also reveal that there is no association between gender and the average
duration of unemployment in Congo. that As we can see on Figure 3, people who are
between 25 and 29 years old have to spent in average 2.3 years (about 28 months
before having their first job. This average duration is the highest of our sample. The
lowest average duration is seen among people who are between 15 and 19 years old
(1.64 years). As show in table 2 below, the test of Student reveals the significance of
the gap of this average duration between 15-19 and 25-29 yars olds and between 20-
24 and 25-29 years olds at 5% threshold. But this gap is not statistically significant
between 15-19 and 20-24 years olds at 10% threshold (see Table 2).
Table 2. Results of the test of Student on the significance of the gap of
unemployment average duration between age groups

15-19 years old 20-24 years old 25-29 years old


15-19 years old
20-24 years old Non signif*
Henri Bello Fika
586

25-29 years old Signif** Signif**


(**): the gap is statistically significant at the 5% threshold;
(*): the gap is statistically significant at the 10% threshold;
Non signif*: the gap is not statistically significant at the 10% threshold.
Source: The author (through the use of the SWTS, Congo, by ILO).

The impact of the Educational/Qualification Level


Figure 4 below depicts the results of association between educational/qualification
level and the average duration of unemployment.

Figure 4. Association between the Educational/Qualification Level and the


average duration of unemployment among educated first job seekers
Source: The author (through the use of the SWTS, Congo, by ILO).

As shown in this figure, people who have stopped studying or training at university
or at technical secondary level have to spend in average 9 months before having a
job. Those who have completed a professional training have to spend in average one
year. Those who have a general (non-technical) secondary level have to spend in
average 18 months (1.5 year). Those who have stopped at basic level have to spend
until 2.68 years (32 months). As presented in Table 3 below, the gap of average
duration of unemployment between those with basic educational level and the other
groups is always statistically significant at 1% threshold. This gap is also statistically
significant at 1% between those who have a non-technical secondary educational
level and those who have stooped schooling at university or post university level.
The other gaps are not significant at 10% threshold (see Table 3).
Table 3. Results of the test of Student on the significance of the gap of
unemployment average duration between educational/qualification levels
General Technical
Basic Professional University/P
secondary secondary
Education education ost graduate
education education
Basic Education
General secondary education Signif***
Technical secondary education Signif*** Signif***
Professional education Signif*** Non signif* Non signif*
University/Post graduate Signif*** Signif*** Non signif* Non signif*
Henri Bello Fika
587

(***): the gap is statistically significant at the 1% threshold;


(*): the gap is statistically significant at the 10% threshold;
Non signif*: the gap is not statistically significant at the 10% threshold.
Source: The author (through the use of the SWTS, Congo, by ILO).

The impact of the Area of study/training


Figure 5 below depicts the results of association between the Area of study/training
and the average duration of unemployment in Congo.

Figure 5. Association between the Area of study/training and the average


duration of unemployment among educated first job seekers
Source: The author (through the use of the SWTS, Congo, by ILO).

According to the results presented in this figure, the lowest average duration is
observed among people who have studied Maths or Computer science or Process
and Production Ingeneering (those people have to spend, in average, only 2.5
months), whereas the lowest average duration is observed among people who have
been trained in educational or service areas (have to spend, in average, about 2.5
years, ie 30 months). This group is followed by those who have benefited from non-
technical training (Arts, Letters, History, …) (they have to spend in average 2 years).
Those who have been specialized in Agriculture, Medical sciences or Social
protection, and those who have been specialized in Social sciences, Business
Administration or Law, have to spend, in average, about 9 and 7 months
respectively).
Furthermore, as shown on Table 4 below, the gap in terms of unemployment average
duration is non significant at 10% threshold between those people have benefited
from non-technical training and people who have been trained in educational or
service areas and between people who have been specialized in Social sciences,
Business Administration or Law and those who have been specialized in
Agriculture, Medical sciences or Social protection.
Henri Bello Fika
588

Table 4. Results of the test of Student on the significance of the gap of


unemployment average duration between the study/training Areas
Maths/Computer
General Sociales Agriculture/Medic
Education/ science/Process&
training/Arts sciences/Bu al sciences&Social
Services Production
&lettres ssines/Law protection
Ingeneering
General training/Arts&lettres
Education/Services Non signif*
Social sciences/Bussines/Law Signif*** Signif***
Maths/Computer science/Process&Production Ingeneering Signif*** Signif*** Signif***
Non
Agriculture/Medical sciences&Social protection Signif*** Signif*** Signif***
signif*

(***): the gap is statistically significant at the 1% threshold;


(*): the gap is statistically significant at the 10% threshold;
Non signif*: the gap is not statistically significant at the 10% threshold.
Source: The author (through the use of the SWTS, Congo, by ILO).

The Area of study/training and the job status


Figure 6 presents the results of association between The area of study/training and
the type of employment. As depicted in this figure, people whose first job was
unpaid are the least numérous, as they represent less than 20% of the overall sample.
About one in two people have chosen the self-employment.

Figure 6. Distribution of educated first job seekers by the job status, according
to the study/training Area
Source: The author (through the use of the SWTS, Congo, by ILO).

Among people specialized in technical/technological areas, social issues and Law,


the chance to have the first employment as an employee for a paid job (after leaving
school or a training program) is more very high (about 60%). This denotes the need
of the economy for those categories of training. The Khi-square association test
reveals that the type of employment is associated to the area of study/training at 1%
threshold.
Henri Bello Fika
589

The distribution of the unemployment duration according to the area of


study/training
One can notice that people who specialized in technical/technological areas such as
Quantitative techniques (Maths), Computer science or Process & Production
Ingeneeering are more likely to have their first job in less than 12 months (Figure 7).
This group of people who have benefited from this type of training present the
fastest school-to-work transition (more than 80% have their first job in less than 12
months). It is very easy for them to have their first job. For this group, the
probability to stay employed during more than to years is almost null. This group is
followed by the group of people who have benefited from training in Social
sciences, Business administration and Law. Those who have benefited from non-
technical training (areas like Arts & Letters, History, Education/service, …) are
likely to stay unemployed during a very long period (more than 10 years).

Figure 7. The distribution of the unemployment duration according to the


study/training area
Source: The author (through the use of the SWTS, Congo, by ILO).

Analysing the shape of the curves (Figures 1 and 2) one can conclude that the
distribution of the unemployement duration in Congo can be estimated by an
exponential function. Furthermore, the unemployment duration is a quantitative
discrete variable. For these two reasons we can fit the variation of its value by a
Poisson regression model for its explanation.
a) Results of the Explanatory Model
The results of the Poisson regression model we estimated are presented in Table 5
below. These results show that the model is globally significant at 1% threshold. The
parameters’ estimated values have been stabilized after running three iterations. All
the variables are statistically significant at 1% threshold, except gender, which is non
significant at 10% threshold. The intercept (constant) is also non significant at 10%
threshold.
Henri Bello Fika
590

Table 5. The results of the Poisson regression model


Number of obs = 1,171
Poisson Regression
Number of iterations=3
LR chi2(11) = 532.68
Prob > chi2 = 0.0000
Pseudo R2 = 0.1012
Log likelihood = -2366.0604
Dependant variable : Duration of Unemployment
Explanatory variables IRR z 95% Conf. Interval
General training/Arts&lettres 2.00*** 2.68 [1.20; 3.33]
Education/Services 2.62*** 3.63 [1.56; 4.40]
Sociales sciences/Bussines/Law 0.75[ns] -0.94 [0.41; 1.37]
Maths/Computer science/Process&Production Ingeneering 0.26*** -3.62 [0.13; 0.54]
Male 0.93[ns] -1.45 [0.85; 1.02]
Basic Education 2.14*** 5.02 [1.59; 2.88]
General secondary education 1.10[ns] 0.63 [0.82; 1.48]
Technical secondary education 0.97[ns] -0.15 [0.67; 1.41]
Professional education 1.29[ns] 1.28 [0.87; 1.89]
15-19 years old 0.48*** -7.98 [0.40; 0.57]
20-24 years old 0.75*** -5.45 [0.67; 0.83]
Constant 0.78[ns] -0.90 [0.46; 1.34]

(***): the effect is statistically significant at the 1% threshold;


ns: the effect is not statistically significant at the 10% threshold.
Source: The author (through the use of the SWTS, Congo, by ILO).

- Area of study/training (or speciality)


According to the explanatory results, people who have benefited from non-technical
training are at least twice as exposed to unemployment as people who are
specialized in agriculture, medical sciences or social protection. The school-to-first-
work transition is more than twice as slower in the first group than in the second
group. The school-to-first-work transition speed for people who are specialized in
Social sciences, Business administration or Law is as the same as those for those
who are specialized in agriculture, medical sciences or social protection.
The school-to-first-work transition for people specialized in Quantitative techniques
(Maths), Computer science or Process & Production Ingeneeering, is almost 4 times 2
as more faster as for people who are specialized in agriculture, medical sciences or
social protection.

- Gender
The school-to-first-work transition for male is as the same as for female.

2
Henri Bello Fika
591

- Educational/qualification level
The school-to-first-work transition for people who just have a basic educational
level is more than twice as slower as for people who have a higher educational level.
The school-to-first-work transition speed for the other educational/qualification
levels is as the same as the basic educational level.

- Age
The school-to-first-work transition for people who are between 15 and 19 years old
and for those who between 20 and 24 years old is as 2 times 1.34 times respectively,
more faster as for those who are between 25 and 29 years old.

5. Discussion

- The role of the kind of human capital


Our empirical results have revealed that the human capital structure is an important
factor of the unemployment duration in the Republic of Congo. In fact, it is difficult
for people who have not beneficiated from a training in a technical/technological
area to have a job. They represent more than 75% of the sample. Considering this
percentage, one can easily understand the fact that the unemployment rate be hight
in that country. There is a disproportion between the suitable capital structure and
the actual capital structure. Human capital is an important factor of economic
growth. However, the point is not only to invest in this factor, but also to form a
human capital structure that corresponds to the real needs of the economy, so that
the duration of the transition between the cessation of studies or training and access
to the first job is considerably reduced.
- Age and the use of technological literacy
The school-to-first-job transition is less slower for youngest people. This can be
explained by the fact that young people are very interested in new technology, the
use of which permits the raise of productivity and therefore, to be more efficient in
terms of the quality of the task and the time required for the task. Logically, as an
homo oeconomicus, the employer will prefer employ the more efficient job seekers.
- The Gender issues
According to the results, gender issues do not matter in terms of the school-to-first-
job transition speed. This could lead us to conclude that there is no gender gap in
terms of school-to-first-job transition speed, but, analyzing the evolution of the
gender gap in terms of the probability to be employed for the first time after leaving
school or training (Figure 8), we can notice that wthin the first seven years following
the withdrawal from the educational or training system, this gap is significant. After
seven years, the probabilities are very close. This leads to conclude that the more the
unemployment period is long, the more the gender gap is tight.
Henri Bello Fika
592

Figure 8. The gender parity index values (%) according to the duration of
unemployment among educated first job seekers
Source: The author (through the use of the SWTS, Congo, by ILO).

6. Conclusions

The aim of this paper was to identify the factors of the duration of Unemployment
among the educated first job seekers in the Republic of Congo. To achieve this goal,
we made use of data which have been constructed from the database of the School-
to-Work Transition Survey (SWTS) carried out in Congo in 2015 by Iinternational
Labor Organization (ILO) among individuals who are between 15 and 29 years old.
The sample formed for our study was made up of people who have at least a primary
education level, who have had a job at least once in their life and who have stopped
studying or training before getting their first job. The sample was made up of 1,171
individuals including 565 males and 606 females. Using these data, we have
performed a descriptive statistical analysis supplemented by an explanatory analysis
based on the Poisson regression model.
The results show that the human capital structure is an important factor of the
unemployment duration in the Republic of Congo. In fact, it is difficult for people
who have not beneficiated from a training in a technical/technological area to have a
job. They represent more than 75% of the sample. Considering this percentage, one
can easily understand the fact that the unemployment rate be hight in that country.
Furthermor, the school-to-first-job transition is less slower for youngest people. This
can be explained by the fact that young people are very interested in new
technology, the use of which permits the raise of productivity and therefore, to be
more efficient in terms of the quality of the task and the time required for the task.
We can notice that wthin the first seven years following the withdrawal from the
educational or training system, the gender gap in terms of acces to the first job is
significant. After seven years, this gap is very tight. This leads to conclude that the
more the unemployment period is long, the more the gender gap is tight.
Human capital is an important factor of economic growth. However, the point is not
only to invest in this factor, but also to form a human capital structure that
Henri Bello Fika
593

corresponds to the real needs of the economy, so that the duration of the transition
between the cessation of studies or training and access to the first job is considerably
reduced. This is the main recommendation resulting from our study.

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