CARIBBEAN MARINE CLIMATE CHANGE REPORT CARD: SCIENCE REVIEW 2017

Science Review 2017: pp 174-184.

Impacts of Climate Change on Tourism in the Coastal and Marine

Environments of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS)
Davina Layne, Regional Project Coordinator, USAID Caribbean Clean Energy Program (CARCEP)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Regionally, tourism is worth over US$53 billion to the economies of Caribbean countries, and is therefore vital as an economic
sector.
Tourism is also considered to be a highly climate sensitive industry (NCCARF, 2013), and climate change continues to be a
cause for concern for the small island developing states (SIDS) of the Caribbean where strong evidence of warming has been
observed since 1961 (Stephenson et al., 2014).
Climate change is already having a negative impact on the tourism sector in the Caribbean, with temperature increases causing
coral bleaching and an increase in the frequency of droughts which affects the availability of water.
Damage and loss caused by storms and hurricanes has also risen and in 2015 damage from Tropical Storm Erika cost 90% of
the GDP of Dominica.
Major tourism infrastructure including seaports and airports are at risk from a 1m rise in the sea level.
The costs of rebuilding damaged infrastructure located along the coasts is disproportionately high for Caribbean SIDS.

What is Already Happening?

Tourism is the engine of economic growth for the Caribbean Temperature
Region and its biggest foreign exchange earner. In 2014 direct According to analysis by the World Meteorological Organization
contribution to regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (WMO), 16 of the 17 warmest years have been recorded this
(including wider effects from investment, the supply chain and century and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration
induced income impacts) was USD$51.9bn in 2015 and rose to (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
USD$53.1bn. The direct contribution to employment was Administration (NOAA) have stated that the ten warmest years
709,000 jobs. on record since 1880 (the year when record keeping officially
The Caribbean ranks 1st in tourism’s relative contribution to GDP began) have all occurred since 2000. At the time of writing, 2016
out of 12 regions, which confirms its place as the most tourism was on track to surpass 2015 as the warmest year on record.
dependent region of the world. The Caribbean tourism industry Indeed, the first nine months of 2016 were the warmest on
must therefore remain strong and vibrant for the region to grow record, with the WMO stating that these months have averaged
and prosper. 0.88°C above the average of the years 1961 - 1990. (New York
Tourism is seen as a climate-dependent industry and because Times, 2016)
many countries owe their popularity to their pleasant climate Table 1 below summarises the climate change impacts which will
(Amelung et al, 2007), climate change effects and impacts can all have varying effects (both positive and negative) for
prove debilitating in many ways to this important Caribbean Caribbean countries.
industry. Changes in temperature, water and drought issues, and Figure 1 shows the temperature data from four international
changes in coral reefs are some of the effects already being science institutions, which all report rapid warming in the past
observed here in the Caribbean. few decades and further corroborates that the last
 order to create such efficiencies especially since the Caribbean
Table 1: Main impacts of climate change and their implications
for tourism. Adapted from: WTO-UNEP-WMO (2008) Climate
hotel sector is currently seen as the largest electricity consumer
Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges sector in the region.

Impact Tourism implications

Oceans and Coral Reefs
Warmer temperatures Altered seasonality, heat stress, The oceans are changing too; not only are their temperatures
cooling costs, infectious diseases rising, but ocean chemistry is changing due to increased
amounts of carbon dioxide dissolving into the water resulting in
Increasing frequency and Risk for tourism facilities, insurance ocean acidification. Both of these changes have important
intensity of extreme costs, business interruption consequences for coral reefs (Mumby et al, 2014). Globally the
storms
3rd coral bleaching event was declared in October 2015. This
Changes to precipitation Water shortages, desertification, event, which lasted for more than a year, also extended into 2016
and evaporation competition for water and caused concern because corals can generally survive mild
and/or short bouts of bleaching, but long term bleaching such as
Increased heavy Flooding damage, altered seasonality
this is fatal as the coral’s susceptibility to disease is heightened
precipitation
(NOAA, 2015).
Sea level rise Coastal erosion, loss of beach area,
costs to maintain and protect sea For tourism, loss of corals increases the vulnerability of the
defences and waterfronts beach to erosion during strong wave events since coral reefs
provide a natural shoreline buffer and help to slow wave action.
Sea temperature rise Coral bleaching, marine resource In addition corals are aesthetically pleasing and coral damage
degradation in tourism destinations will affect the dive tourism sectors of major dive destinations
Changes in biodiversity Loss of natural attractions such as Bonaire, Dominica and Cayman Islands which are
heavily dependent on this aspect of their tourism. Healthy reefs
allow the beach to accrete and allow for fish to thrive which is
positive for local fisheries. Fisheries and agriculture are
important linkage sectors for tourism and impacts which hamper
the tourism industry negatively will also have a domino effect on
these sectors. This is not good news for the livelihoods of many
local persons who work in these two sectors.
Water and Drought
Coral based islands have limited water supply and managing the
supply of fresh water in these islands is further complicated by
the threat of climate change, which has the potential to
significantly affect the hydrological cycle. Globally there is high
confidence that the negative impacts of climate change on
freshwater systems will outweigh the positive (Bates et al.,
2008).
Figure 1: Temperature Data 1880 and beyond.
Data sources: NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NOAA National
There is an immense requirement for water within the Caribbean
Climatic Data Center, Met Office Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit and the tourism industry and as growth is experienced in the industry this
Japanese Meteorological Agency (NASA, 2016). demand will no doubt increase. In addition, the demand for water
in the tourism sector will also affect the demand for water in other
decade has been the warmest on record. In the Caribbean this
linked sectors for example agriculture (Emmanuel and Spence,
warming has been validated by Stephenson et al, (2014) whose
2009).
study concluded that between 1961 and 2010 strong evidence
of warming has been observed for the entire Caribbean. This demand however is a challenge, since rainfall has
Specifically, all temperature extremes have been increasing and decreased in the Caribbean in the last century (MACC, 2010) with
additionally cold nights have been getting warmer. below average rainfall being recorded across the Caribbean in
2015 (NOAA, 2015). In 2015 Antigua saw its driest year since
As temperatures in Caribbean SIDS increase those who do
record keeping began in 1871 (Desitin, 2016) and indeed many
travel to these island nations may find the heat uncomfortable
Caribbean nations entered a period of drought in 2015 with less
and this may spoil their holiday and inhibit their return. Tourists
rain also falling into 2016. The drought then persisted for much
may view the Caribbean as an undesirable place to visit because
of 2016. There was also an extensive period of drought across
of the high temperatures. Restaurants, hotels and other tourism
the Caribbean region during 2009-2010. As an example,
establishments will need to increase their cooling needs to
Grenada is already experiencing climate changes seen through
combat the extreme heat. This presents an opportunity for
the increased occurrence of drought, lengthier dry seasons and
resource efficiency and the use of renewable technologies in
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in turn shorter rainy seasons, increased temperature and coastal this important industry, especially when you consider that rebuild
degradation (Grenada Intended Nationally Determined costs for such infrastructure are disproportionately high for these
Contribution, 2015). small states and can represent as much as 28% of Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) in the future.
Tourism depends on water as a critical input and the effects of
drought on the industry can adversely affect tourist comfort and Anthropogenic pressures
destination perception. When water is unavailable it may mean,
for example, that tourists are unable to have showers and baths. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) states that
In the Caribbean which is typically a warm weather destination, the Caribbean and other SIDS produce less than 1 per cent of
this may prove to be an unpleasant experience. Other global emissions but are extremely vulnerable to changes in the
inconveniences such as being unable to flush the toilet or climate.
prepare a meal may also take a toll on guest experience. Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals
During the tourist season, a drought can also place a greater show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate
demand on already stressed water resources as the number of scientists agree: climate-warming trends over the past century
persons on island has increased and there will therefore be a are extremely likely due to human activities (Cook et al., 2016).
greater need for water per capita. In addition, most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide
have issued public statements endorsing this position (NASA
Since 2006 hotels on the West Coast of Barbados were Global Climate Change, 2016).
experiencing water outages once or twice a month. The West
Coast of Barbados is considered the affluent coast and these Anthropogenic pressures, such as inadequate regulation and
outages will have a negative perception in the minds of guests legislation, which among other things leads to poor coastal
who stay at these hotels. In addition, hotels will need to development, overfishing, land based pollution, sand mining and
implement coping strategies to deal with these outages poor land use practices (including those of agriculture and
(Emmanuel and Spence, 2009), which may include the purchase mining), undermine the integrity of critical marine and coastal
of water tanks and the installation of water saving devices and ecosystems which contribute to the quality of the tourism
other water conservation measures. product. They weaken the ecosystem and lessen its ability to
cope with the added stresses of climate change.
In Barbados since the end of 2015 until 2016 water outages have
persisted in various parts of the island especially in the North due These are explained briefly below:
to low water reserves and other issues (Nation News, 2016). - Poor coastal development
This has also presented a challenge for the 2015-2016 tourism
season. Often (and due to the poor regulation and legislation described
above) developers will destroy forests, coral reefs, mangroves
Antigua and Barbuda has already witnessed saltwater intrusion and other areas along the coast which not only provide shoreline
and drought due to the worst drought in recent history, dating protection but also sequester carbon. In this regard the
back to at least 1928. Between 1960 and 2000, there were eight vulnerability of the coastline increases and it becomes exposed
years in which rainfall for Antigua fell below 30.74 inches. During to erosion and storm surges.
the period 1965 to 2000, annual rainfall fell below 27.79 inches
in Barbuda on 10 occasions. - Land based sources of pollution
Indeed, July 2013 to February 2016 was the driest such period Dumping of garbage and overuse of chemicals in agriculture also
on record, translating to Antigua and Barbuda missing about a pollute and disturb the marine environment when these then run
year’s worth of rainfall (Desitin, 2016). off into the sea. This can lead to damage to reefs which in turns
reduces the buffer that healthy reefs provide to coasts.
Sea level rise (SLR)
- Sand mining
Increases in sea levels can cause flooding, soil erosion,
inundation and wave damage to coastlines, particularly in small Removal of sand from the beach destabilises the beach and
island states and countries with low lying deltas. In the specific exacerbates coastal and beach erosion which is already a
case of the Caribbean, sea levels have risen at a rate of problem on many islands.
approximately 1 mm/year during the 20th century (Cashman et These human activities, and the interplay between them, which
al., 2010). have been detrimental to the natural and built environment can
Studies on SLR in the Caribbean conducted by Simpson, 2010 prove to intensify the effects currently being felt by climate
show that SLR is significant for all states with nearly one-third of change.
major tourism resorts and airports being at risk to 1m SLR. In
addition a large majority of the land surrounding seaports is also What Could Happen?
susceptible to flooding from 1m SLR. Such a threat to key
Despite being a highly responsive and flexible industry which
tourism and other infrastructure (such as seaports, airports,
adapts to demand for new destinations, activities and markets;
power plants and coastal tourism resorts) could be destructive to
tourism is also volatile and sensitive to economic, social,
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ecological and technological changes. As such, for the the Latin America and Caribbean region, and about $1.2 billion
Caribbean SIDS in particular, climatic changes can severely with a sea-level rise of 40 cm. The Caribbean region’s tourism
affect the travel and tourism industry (NCCARF, 2013). sector is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to its low-
Moreover, changing climate and weather patterns at tourist lying coastal areas and the population’s dependence on coastal
destinations and tourist generating countries can significantly and marine economic activity – often related to tourism. In a
affect the tourists’ comfort and their travel decisions (UNWTO, scenario leading to a 4°C world increase and featuring 0.89–1.4
2016). It is at this point questions of when, why, how and where m of sea-level rise, tropical cyclones in the Caribbean alone
tourists travel surface. Climate also determines the nature and could generate an extra $22 billion by 2050 (and $46 billion by
location of tourism attractions, and shapes the marketing of 2100) in storm and infrastructure damages and tourism losses,
many destinations. It further shapes tourists’ expectations, compared to a scenario leading to a 2°C increase. This
experience and memories - determining whether they become represents between 1% and 35% of GDP depending on the
returning tourists (NCCARF, 2013). For coastal and marine country, and many small islands would be unable to handle this
environments such as the Caribbean SIDS, where tourism is a disproportionate cost. The potential upsurge in tropical cyclone
major economic activity, any significant reduction in tourist intensity may increase port downtime for ships and, therefore
arrivals will have serious employment impacts and generate cause a rise in shipping costs. Beach tourism is particularly
further poverty (UNWTO, 2016), thus confirming the extent to exposed to direct and indirect climate change stressors,
which SIDS and tourism industries are vulnerable to short and including sea-level rise, modified tropical storm patterns,
long term climate variability and change (NCCARF, 2013). heightened storm surges, and coastal erosion. Coastal tourist
resorts will be potentially two-to-three times more exposed to
In addition to specific climate related events that will affect climate change-related stressors such as extreme weather
tourism in coastal and marine environments of Caribbean SIDS events and salt water intrusion than inland touristic resorts
(receiving countries), there also needs to be mention made of (World Bank, 2014).
the effects of warming in source markets. Temperature Until the end of the century it is expected that rainfall will
increases in the United Kingdom and the USA for example can decrease in the early part of the wet season therefore extending
mean that fewer tourists will leave their homes to travel abroad the dry season. Tourism and tourist facilities are large
for a holiday. This will no doubt have an effect on the foreign consumers of water, with visitors often consuming at least three
exchange earnings of Caribbean tourism destinations. times as much as the local population. (Charara et al., 2011) This
Coral bleaching and coral diseases have also become more fact will mean that the impacts of an extended dry season will
frequent and the magnitude of the bleaching increased. This is also be more intense. More and more projections show that
expected to continue and from as early as the 2030s signs of although the number of hurricanes will not increase, what will
severe coral stress and an inability for corals to recover will be happen is that they will be more extreme which suggests greater
evident (Simpson, M. C. et al., 2011). damage (Van Meerbeek, 2016).
These in fact have already begun to occur, as demonstrated by
Likely climate change impacts on tourism in the coming decades the examples below:
include:
• 10 years Hurricane Ivan – Grenada
In the near future (over the next 10 years) it is expected that On September 7, 2004, Hurricane Ivan, a category 3 storm,
climate change impacts will be aggravated. For example in struck the Caribbean island of Grenada, causing widespread
Guyana there is expected to be an increase in flooding and salt destruction. The financial cost of the disaster was estimated at
water intrusion into aquifers due to sea level rise and in Antigua more than US$900 million, more than twice the country's GDP.
more coastal and beach erosion is expected. (Van Meerbeek, The hurricane damaged more than 80 percent of the country's
2016) building structures, and only two of the 75 public schools
remained undamaged.
• 20 years Severe disruption of the health sector also occurred, including
Irrespective of the sensitivity threshold chosen, and irrespective the almost complete destruction of Princess Alice, the island's
of the emissions scenario, by the year 2040, Caribbean coral second largest hospital. An estimated 80 percent of the power
reefs are expected to experience annual bleaching events. While distribution grid was lost, and nearly 70 percent of the tourism
some species and particular locations appear to be more infrastructure was rendered uninhabitable. Hurricane Ivan also
resilient to such events, it is clear that the marine ecosystems of badly damaged the agricultural sector, with widespread damage
the Caribbean are facing large-scale changes with far-reaching to nutmeg crops, the island's principal agricultural export.
consequences for associated livelihood activities such as dive
tourism and other marine and watersports activities as well as Tropical Storm Erika – Dominica
for the coastal protection provided by healthy coral reefs.
On August 27, 2015 Tropical Storm Erika passed over Dominica
• 30 years and beyond producing extraordinary rainfall with high intensity. Owing to the
According to the World Bank, by the year 2050 coastal flooding mountainous island topography and the saturated condition of
with a sea-level rise of 20 cm could generate approximately $940 the soil, the heavy rainfall resulted in intense and rapid flooding.
million of mean annual losses in the 22 largest coastal cities in Dominica suffered severe infrastructural damage, primarily

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 related to transportation, housing and agriculture with the worst What could happen in the future
damage occurring in the south and south east parts of the island.
The major damage caused to roads, bridges, houses and
agricultural land effectively eroded much of the socio-economic Level of H High
gains that the country had made over the previous decade. The agreement
or consensus M X Medium
total damage and loss was estimated at US$483 million,
(incl. dataset
equivalent to 90 percent of Dominica’s Gross Domestic Product L Low
agreement
(GDP), according to the rapid damage and impact assessment
conducted by the government of the Commonwealth of Dominica
and model L M H
confidence)
in collaboration with the World Bank, UN, and other development Amount of evidence (theory /
partners with funding support from the EU and the World Bank observations / models) modelled)
Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. (World
Bank, 2015) The assessment here is based on the fact that although the
Out of a total population of 72,340 persons, 11 persons were science is able to show with great certainty that climate change
confirmed dead, 22 missing, 574 homeless and 713 evacuated will continue to have an impact (mostly negative) on the
with approximately 7,229 impacted by the event in disaster Caribbean region, the level of agreement and certainty regarding
declared areas. what this impact would look like as well as the effects of such an
impact still need to be more robust (see Knowledge Gaps
All in all, tourism suffers greatly from these climate change
below).
effects which cause disruption, damage to infrastructure and
even death. The vulnerability of tourism to climate change is real Knowledge Gaps
and much attention needs to be directed to the sector to put the
necessary legislative and infrastructural changes in place so that In order to help support evidence based decision making the
tourism could be bolstered as a sector. following gaps need addressing as a priority.

Confidence Assessment Lack of data and research

What is already happening Across the Caribbean there needs to be an increase in data
collection and research into the specific impacts of climate
change as it relates to tourism. More work needs to be done in
Level of the area of data collection to monitor trends, so that statistically
H X High significant judgements can be made in relation to climate
agreement or
consensus M Medium changes. In this regard, at present there is still a level of
(incl. dataset uncertainty about how the Caribbean tourism sector will cope
agreement and L Low with climate change and/or adapt to these changes. Further
model research also needs to be done to see how:
confidence)
L M H
1. Sea level rise will affect coastal developments and
Amount of evidence (theory /
hence livelihoods,
observations / models) modelled)
2. A warming of source countries will affect tourism
The assessment here is based on the fact that climate change arrivals and receipts in Caribbean nations
science as well as the study of climate change impacts on
3. Increased temperatures in this region will impact on
environments of Caribbean SIDS especially as it relates to
health of tourists as well as the local populace including tourism
coastal tourism is still quite new. The science is pretty clear that
workers. Although some studies on economic loss have been
climate change has begun to affect SIDS including those in the
done, these are often not incorporated into policy so that real and
Caribbean and many persons in the public domain do not
tangible change can be made. Specifically, there is a lack of
discount that it has indeed started to affect this region. However,
information and research to make statistically significant
more needs to be done to identify specifically how these impacts
conclusions, which presents a problem when the information is
will be felt. In particular, focus should be paid to any positive
needed for studies such as this. In addition, many Caribbean
effects which may ensue from climate change as research on
SIDS have constructed large tourism developments along the
this area is currently lacking. With a bit more evidence in this
coast.
region the level of confidence can be moved from medium to
high. Some studies of the potential socio-economic costs which will be
incurred due to losses from climate change effects have been
done, but many more Caribbean SIDS need to address the lack
of studies of this topic in their nation. This needs to be corrected,
so that the right perspective and importance can be placed on

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climate change and so that the right adaptation measures can reduced crop production, increased bush fires, and led to
be put in place to build economic and social resiliency. widespread water shortages and an increase in food prices
across many islands (Farrell, Trotman, & Cox, 2010).
In addition, data and research will often bring to the fore what
has been lacking and especially in terms of what is needed (for Simpson (2010) in a study on the magnitude of losses and
example equipment and protocols) to improve climate and damage of climate change in the Caribbean determined that a
climate change research. mid-range (1m) sea level rise (SLR) scenario will cost the
Caribbean Community (CARICOM) US$3.9billion in 2050 rising
Limited capacity to US$13.5billion in 2080. These costs will reach as high as
In the Caribbean there is a limited local awareness and capacity $US$19.4 billion by 2080 under a high (2m) sea level rise
regarding climate and climate science and as such, decision scenario. In addition SLR is expected to cause almost full port
makers are often not in a position to make robust decisions inundation of infrastructure in all CARICOM states for a 1m SLR
applicable for the local context. This also affects the ability to scenario. Under this scenario CARICOM countries can see a
enact tough policy and legislation on climate change and its rebuild costs of between 1% and 35% of GDP depending on the
related impacts especially as relates to coastal and marine country. In certain cases the impact cost is quite
planning and development which could help to build climate disproportionate to the GDP of these small islands.
resiliency. In Placencia in Belize, for example, many residents Agro-tourism linkages
sense that the changes they have been seeing in the
environment are due to the changing climate. On the other hand, In the drought of 2009-2010 in St. Vincent and the Grenadines
they have also stated that human development has affected agricultural production reduced by 20% with prices on tomatoes
wildlife distribution and abundance (especially in the marine rising from $2.35/lb in February to $6.00/lb in March. In Antigua
environment) and altered the physical landscape. For example, and Barbuda during the same drought 25% of the onion crop and
tourism and residential developments have been responsible for approximately 30% of the tomato crop were lost. Cases of high
the clearing of extensive mangrove areas and still more prices and reduced production such as these described here will
expansion and mega developments are being planned. Building affect availability of local produce at hotels.
the capacity of decision makers and empowering them to enact
robust laws, and to support the enforcement of the same, can
reduce negligence and improve development decisions.

Socio-economic Impacts
The impacts of climate variability, extremes and change pose a
serious threat to the social and economic development of the
Caribbean region (Farrell, 2012).
There is robust evidence and high agreement that climate
change will affect tourism resorts, particularly ski resorts, beach
resorts, and nature resorts (Field et al, 2014).
A 2010 study from the Caribbean Catastrophic Risk Insurance
Facility (CCRIF) showed that annual expected losses from wind,
storm surge and inland flooding amount to up to 6 percent of Figure 2: CARICOM Capital Costs re Sea Level Rise (SLR)
GDP in some countries. Climate change has the potential to From: Simpson (2010) Quantification and magnitude of the losses and
greatly exacerbate these risks, and could increase expected damages of climate change: Modelling the transformational and Costs of sea
level rise in the Caribbean.
losses by 1-3 percent of GDP by 2030 (CCRIF, 2010).
Economic losses
In the Caribbean research reveals that weather and climate-
related events are associated with more economic damage and
loss cumulatively than other types of natural hazards. CDEMA
(2013), has stated that for the period 1950-2008, wind storms
have accounted for 60%, flooding for 25% while drought
accounted for 5% of natural hazard events in the Caribbean. In
2004, Hurricane Ivan caused losses equivalent to 200% of
national Gross Domestic Product in Grenada; floods in Guyana
in 2005 were associated with losses of 60% of country GDP;
while Hurricane Tomas accounted for losses in the order of 60%
of GDP in Saint Lucia in 2010 (Farrell, 2012; WMO, 2013).
Furthermore, in 2009/2010, the most severe drought in 50 years
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 claims for compensation or law suits which can create a
marketing and financial nightmare for a hotel.

Adaptation Responses
For small islands, practical actions to manage the risks from
climate impacts, protect communities and strengthen the
resilience of the economy are important ways forward in
adapting to climate change.
Two responses are discussed below; one which addresses a
lack of capacity, and the other energy supply and use.
1. United States Agency for International Development
(USAID) Building Regional Climate Capacity in the Caribbean
(BRCCC)
Figure 3: Total Annual and Capital costs of SLR in CARICOM
countries To address these and other impacts going forward, the United
From: Simpson (2010) Quantification and magnitude of the losses and States Agency for International Development (USAID), are
damages of climate change: Modelling the transformational and Costs of sea funding a new Programme to build regional climate capacity in
level rise in the Caribbean.
the Caribbean. This programme is called Building Regional
Climate Capacity in the Caribbean (BRCCC) for adaptation to
Human Health climate variability and change. Its primary focus is on Guyana
and the islands of the Eastern Caribbean. Among other things,
With regard to temperatures beach oriented tourists will be the Programme is a partnership and collaboration between the
vulnerable to adverse health effects when exposed to higher World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Caribbean
than normal temperatures and humidity levels. Heat related Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) to develop
health issues such as extreme sunburn, heat stroke, and seasonal forecasting capabilities in six climate sensitive sectors,
dehydration can all ensue from such temperature increases. A namely, Agriculture and Food Security, Water, Disaster Risk
rise in temperatures may also create an increased guest demand Management, Health, Energy, and Tourism.
for more water-intensive hotel facilities such as showers,
Climate variability and change occur on timescales ranging from
swimming pools and bars. This will pose a significant challenge
sub-seasonal, through seasonal and inter-annual, to decadal
in areas which are already water stressed. The Technical
and beyond. Climate information then, is related to specific
Summary of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th
timescales and can be short-term (decadal, monthly, seasonal,
Assessment Report (IPCC AR 5) states with very high
annual), mid-term (annual to multi-year) or long-range (decades
confidence that there is a greater likelihood of injury, disease,
in the future) in nature. Appropriate and timely sector specific,
and death due to more intense heat waves and fires. There is
environmental, and climate information at relevant spatial and
very high confidence that until mid-century, projected climate
temporal scales can be particularly helpful to anticipate, prepare
change will impact human health mainly by exacerbating health
for and respond to climate-related risks and opportunities.
problems that already exist (Field et al., 2014).
Sectoral Early Warning Information Systems across Climate
This fact will be significant for employees in the tourism sector
Timescales (EWISACTs) hold the potential to be of great value
who will also be affected by temperature rise. Increases in
because they can provide early warning of potential impacting
illnesses will mean more sick days and may lead to the inability
climatic events that may have implications for a wide range of
of the hotel to meet the needs of guests.
climate sensitive sectoral decisions. Three (3) specific objectives
Destination perception of developing sectoral EWISACTs are:

Degradation of coral reefs, higher sea levels and storm surge 1. To design, develop and deliver an increased range of
affect the recreational value of beaches; indeed, some studies in sector driven climate products and services;
the region from Barbados, Bonaire and Martinique show that
2. To design, develop and deliver integrated decision--
degraded beaches reduce the desirability of the destination
support processes and tools; and
(European Climate Foundation et al., 2014). In cases, such as
this accommodation providers may be forced to reduce the
3. To design, develop and deliver capacity building and
training programs in support of climate services.
prices they can charge guests.
Four (4) short-term outcomes that are expected as a result of this
When guests have a horrible destination or accommodation
process under the BRCCC Programme are as follows:
experience due to water shortages, beach erosion or other factor
they may take to social media or another internet platform to 1. Established relationships between
express their frustration and dismay. This can damage a meteorologists/climatologists, scientists from other sectors and
company’s and country’s brand. Some guests may even submit policymakers from across sectors;
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2. Initiation of the development, deployment and platform can highlight abnormal energy and water demands and unearth
integration of sector specific forecasting/planning models in the opportunities for savings and investments.
form of early warning systems;
The next step is the roll out of USAID CARCEP's training
3. Enhanced institutional capacity; and
program in each beneficiary country. This began in Jamaica in
4. Enhanced adaptive capacity.
January 2017 and is aimed at demonstrating how to use the tool
For the Caribbean region, the formalisation of the development as well as how to implement energy saving measures at hotels
of sectoral EWISACTs is a landmark initiative and a positive step and resorts.
which will contribute to the implementation of the five pillars of
Energy consumption in the region is as much as three times
the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) and
higher per USD $1 of GDP generated than other regions of the
enhance the capacity of institutions to respond and adapt to the
world, putting this region at a real competitive disadvantage. For
expected climatic changes.
both climatic and economic reasons, it is imperative that we
2. The United Stated Agency for International reduce fossil fuel consumption and turn those savings into jobs
Development (USAID) Caribbean Clean Energy Program and industry for the region that will drive economic development
(CARCEP). and future growth.
The USAID Caribbean Clean Energy Program (CARCEP) an Conclusion
initiative which is largely directed at the beneficiary countries of
Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Dominica, Grenada, Jamaica, It is hoped that these adaptation measures will bode well for the
St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the future of Caribbean SIDS and aid in reducing the potentially
Grenadines, aims to assist these countries in establishing adverse impacts of climate change.
effective policy, legislative and regulatory environments as well
as incentives for energy efficiency and low-emission growth in Citation
the energy sector.
Please cite this document as:
This programme advances the work done under the Caribbean
Layne, D. (2017) Impacts of Climate Change on Tourism in the
Hotel Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Action
Coastal and Marine Environments of Caribbean Small Island
(CHENACT) Programme funded by the Inter-American
Developing States (SIDS), Caribbean Marine Climate Change
Development Bank (IDB) and conducted through the Caribbean
Report Card: Science Review 2017, pp 174-184.
Hotel and Tourism Association (CHTA) and its regional public
sector counterpart organization the Caribbean Tourism
The views expressed in this review paper do not
Organization (CTO). CHENACT and its advanced programme
represent the Commonwealth Marine Economies
CHENACT-AP focused on Barbados, Jamaica and the Programme, individual partner organisations or the
Bahamas. Foreign and Commonwealth Office.
Sustainable growth in the region is one major benefit of the
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