Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2019) 26:11470–11481

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-04512-8

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Analysis of vegetation dynamics, drought in relation with climate

over South Asia from 1990 to 2011
Shahzad Ali 1 & Malak Henchiri 1 & Fengmei Yao 2 & Jiahua Zhang 1

Received: 5 November 2018 / Accepted: 5 February 2019 / Published online: 26 February 2019
# Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Abstract
Drought is the most complex climate-related disaster issue in South Asia, because of the various land-cover changes, vegetation
dynamics, and climates. The aims of the current research work were to analyze the performance of AVHRR Normalized
Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and spatiotemporal differences in vegetation dynamics on a seasonal basis by correlating
the results with NASA’s MERRA precipitation and air temperature for monitoring vegetation dynamics and drought over South
Asia. Our approach is based on the use of AVHRR NDVI data and NASA’s MERRA rainfall and air temperature data (1990–
2011). Due to the low vegetation and dryness, the NDVI is more helpful in describing the drought condition in South Asia. There
were rapid increases in NDVI, VHI, and VCI from April to October. Monthly NDVI, VHI, and VCI stabilize in September and
improved once more in October and then show a declining trend in December. The monthly PCI, TCI, VHI, and VCI values
showed that the South Asia goes through an extreme drought in 2000, which continues up to 2002, which lead the highest water
stress. Spatial correlation maps among NDVI, precipitation, air temperature, VHI, and VCI on a seasonal basis. The correlation
between NDVI and precipitation showed a significantly higher correlation value in JJA and SON seasons; the spatial correlation
between NDVI and air temperature showed significant high values in DJF, JJA, and SON periods, while the correlation between
VHI and TCI showed a significantly higher values in MAM and SON seasons, which indicated a good sign for dryness
monitoring, mainly for farming regions during these seasons in South Asia. It was confirmed that these indexes are a compre-
hensive drought monitoring indicator and a step to monitoring the climate change in South Asia, which will play a relevant role
ongoing studies on vegetation types, monitoring climate change, and drought over South Asia.

Keywords Drought . Trends in NDVI . Vegetation dynamics . Spatial correlation . South Asia

Introduction plant growth (Forkel et al. 2013). Recently, IPCC (2014)) re-
ported that the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
Drought is a complex ecological problem which has been a as a result of severe and prolonged droughts would occur in
severe societal and economic consequence, caused by the im- South Asia. The prolonged drought events had dangerous im-
balance of rainfall and high air temperature (Ghulam et al. pacts on vegetation (Schillinger et al. 2008). Among other fac-
2007). It usually involves an insufficiency of rainfall and high tors, inadequate precipitation and high air temperature signifi-
air temperature that leads to reduced soil water storage and cantly prompt soil degradation, susceptible and low resilient
vegetation community, and decreasing of crop yield in semi-
arid regions of South Asia (Rousvel et al. 2013). Vegetation
Responsible editor: Philippe Garrigues plays a significant role to influencing the climate system there-
by controlling the drought in arid regions (Du et al. 2015). Ji
* Fengmei Yao and Peters (2003) reported that the NDVI values are used to
[email protected]
study the response of vegetation under drought circumstances.
* Jiahua Zhang The NDVI cannot be used only for spatiotemporal differences
[email protected]
in vegetation, but also to reveal the vegetation feedback under
1
School of Computer Science and Technology, Remote Sensing and drought conditions (Ashraf et al. 2011).
Climate Change, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China The global averaged ocean surface and land temperature
2
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China have increased considerably at a rate of 0.85 °C during 1880–

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Environ Sci Pollut Res (2019) 26:11470–11481 11471

2012 (IPCC 2014). South Asia is among the most susceptible 2013). Therefore, it constitutes a high priority to further eval-
drought-prone areas of the globe and with significantly water uate the influence of droughts on the dynamics of the South
and food deficiency (IPCC 2014). During 2003, an extreme Asia vegetation. The majority of the studies about drought
drought in China leads to decreased water supply for both impacts on the vegetation cover considered droughts as a pre-
drinking and irrigation purposes (NBS 2005). Earlier study cipitation shortage regarding the normal climatology (Ivits
has associated vegetation growth with climate changing et al. 2014a, b). Nevertheless, large evapotranspiration rates
(Pandey et al. 2007). The most significant challenge being associated to high temperatures are equally relevant and may
faced by a scientist is climate change, which has a harmful reinforce drought severity (Dorman et al. 2013). To determine
effect on food safety and human health (Devaraju et al. 2015; the impact of droughts on vegetation is difficult given strong
Hou et al. 2018). Recently, the AVHRR-derived indices have landscape diversity, with vegetation species having different
been developed and functional around the globe. Temperature resistance to drought (Maherali and DeLucia 2001a, b).
Condition Index (TCI), which is obtained from AVHRR ther- To the best of our knowledge, there were no researches
mal bands, can be a good sign for evaluation of vegetation works, covering the South Asia region, focus upon the vegeta-
dynamics and drought (Kogan 1995; Kadiyala et al. 2015; tion dynamics, and drought events in relation with climatic
Du et al. 2017). In combination with the TCI, the VCI has been changing. Furthermore, no earlier research works have consid-
useful for monitoring and evaluation of drought and vegetation ered the combined impact of precipitation and temperature on
(Pandey et al. 2007). Singh et al. (2003) also reported that the vegetation dynamics. As we know, drought is a slow process
Vegetation Health Index (VHI) can be used for drought detec- which begins with rainfall deficit, then it leads to soil water
tion. Udelhoven et al. (2009) study that due to poor rainfall and deficit with a higher land surface temperature, and at last, the
more atmospheric evaporation, aridity might be improved as a vegetation growth will be influenced by this process (Du et al.
result vegetation degradation. 2013). Therefore, to monitor the comprehensive drought which
The severe drought affected over 60 million peoples during is derived from rainfall, air temperature, and vegetation dynam-
1998 to 2001 in South Asia (Agrawala et al. 2001). To find out ics, in this study, we use AVHRR NDVI and derived vegetation
the effect of droughts on vegetation is a complex climatic issue dynamics on a seasonal basis by correlating the results with
due to different vegetation types having different resistance to NASA’s MERRA precipitation and air temperature for monitor-
drought (Pasho et al. 2012). Moreover, drought impacts under ing drought and vegetation dynamics over South Asia region.
various vegetation species can be significant to evaluate a num-
ber of drought characteristics, such as drought severity and pre-
vailing time-scales (Maherali and DeLucia 2001a, b). The Study area and data
Temperature Condition Index (TCI) is sensitive to soil moisture
content, while land cover types could severely affect the rela- Study area
tionship between TCI and soil moisture content (Holzman et al.
2014; Sandholt et al. 2002). Using only TCI to detect dry and The research area encompasses eight countries in South Asia,
wet conditions of soil could not eliminate the influence of other ranging 34°22′–38°23′ N, 114°09′–122°43′ E (Fig. 1). The
factors on TCI, and there would be a negative effect in drought area includes a variety of climate zones, including tropical
monitoring. Thus, integrating NDVI and TCI can offer better and sub-tropical regions in the south, temperate areas in north-
information on drought which requires from bare soil to com- ern India and Nepal, and dry areas in Pakistan, Afghanistan,
plete vegetation coverage (Chen et al. 2011). and western India. The total land area is about 5.2 million
The accessibility of remote-sensing data with broader spa- km2. The elevation from mean sea level and geographical
tial exposure has led researcher society to capture the spatio- location is present in Fig. 1. It can be observed in the map that
temporal dynamics of droughts and its relations on vegetation the elevation varies largely from south to north. Seasonal pat-
dynamics and crops production (Gouveia et al. 2008). terns of rainfall are driven by the monsoon climate system that
Different studies find out the effect of drought on the vegeta- dominates over the sub-continent of India and Southeast Asia.
tion by using remote-sensing data (Lloret et al. 2007; Gouveia
et al. 2009). The strong dependence of vegetation dynamics Remote sensing data and processing
on water availability has been for long recognized in the South
Asia region (Lindner et al. 2010; Gouveia et al. 2012). NDVI can be obtained using near-infrared (NIR) and red channels,
Vicente-Serrano et al. (2012) showed that vegetation degrada- which is the most commonly used vegetation index. While in the
tion could be enhanced by the enlarged aridity resulting from early 1980s, scientists have used NDVI, which derived from the
lower precipitation and higher atmospheric evaporative de- AVHRR on the national oceanic and atmospheric administration
mand. In this context, the risk of drought-related damages (NOAA)’s polar-orbiting satellites, to monitor and evaluate terres-
on the vegetation cover has increased significantly during trial vegetation vigor (Tucker 1979). A successor of the Global
the last decades in the South Asia region (Camarero et al. Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) third

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11472 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2019) 26:11470–11481

Fig. 1 Elevation map of South Asia

generation NDVI (bimonthly) dataset derived from the NOAA/ trends in vegetation activity (Xu et al. 2014). The long-term month-
AVHRR sensors (NDVI3g) at a spatial resolution of 0.0833° over ly average rainfall and temperature data were retrieved from
a 15-day interval from 1990 to 2011 was used in this work. The Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and
GIMMS NDVI3g datasets have been corrected to minimize dif- Applications (NASA’s MERRA) at a spatial resolution of 0.5° ×
ferent effects such as sensor degradation, calibration loss, and vol- 9 0.5°. The climate datasets were rescaled to 0.0833° × 9 0.0833°
canic eruptions hence can be employed in identifying long-term same resolution with NDVI. The temperature was retrieved at 2 m

Fig. 2 Maximum, mean, and minimum precipitation over South Asia during (1990–2011)

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Environ Sci Pollut Res (2019) 26:11470–11481 11473

Fig. 3 Maximum, mean, and minimum temperature over South Asia during (1990–2011)

above the ground. The digital elevation model was retrieved from The PCI (Precipitation Condition Index) has the following
the Advanced Space-borne Thermal Emission and Reflection expression:
Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM).
The VCI (Vegetation Condition Index) is an important sign for PCI ¼ ðPRC–PRCmin Þ=ðPRCmax –PRCmin Þ ð3Þ
monitoring drought stress on vegetation. The VCI was calculated
according to the formulae explained by Kogan (1990, 1995, 1998): where PRC (precipitation), PRCmax, and PRCmin are the pixel
values of precipitation and maximum and minimum of it,
NDVI−NDVImin respectively, in the same month during 1990–2011.
VCI ¼ ð1Þ
NDVImax −NDVImin The VHI (Vegetation Health Index) was calculated accord-
ing to the formulae explained by Kogan (1998) of each pixel,
where NDVI is the smoothed pixel values of NDVI. NDVImax and respectively, in same month during 1990–2011.
NDVImin are maximum NDVI and minimum NDVI, respectively,
calculated by the corresponding pixels in the same month from the VHI ¼ 0:5ðVCIÞijk þ 0:5ðTCIÞijk ð4Þ
entire NDVI records (1990–2011).
The TCI (Temperature Condition Index) was calculated
according to the formulae explained by Kogan (1995, 1998): Spatial correlation analysis
LSTmax −LST
TCI ¼ ð2Þ The seasonal time-series of all the variables were used for cor-
LSTmax −LSTmin
relation analysis (rxy) as the help in assessing if climate ex-
where LSTmax and LSTmin are the values of maximum LST tremes result in extreme vegetation activity. The result shows
and minimum LST of each pixel, respectively, in the same where vegetation may react sensitively to climatic variability,
month during 1990–2011. which is important in understanding climate change.

Fig. 4 Maximum, mean, and minimum NDVI over South Asia during (1990–2011)

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11474 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2019) 26:11470–11481



∑i xi −x yi −y Results and discussion
rxy ¼ rffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi

2
2ffi ð5Þ
∑i xi −x ∑i yi −y
Analysis of vegetation dynamics by using AVHRR data

The precipitation, air temperature, and NDVI values were cal-

where x is the predictor climate and y response NDVI variable, culated as maximum, mean, and minimum over the entire
respectively. South Asia by using AVHRR NDVI data and NASA’s

Fig. 5 Trends for monthly

Precipitation Condition Index
(PCI), Temperature Condition
Index (TCI), Normalized
Difference Vegetation Index
(NDVI), Vegetation Health Index
(VHI), and Vegetation Condition
Index (VCI) over South Asia for
the period of 1990 to 2011

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Environ Sci Pollut Res (2019) 26:11470–11481 11475

MERRA rainfall and temperature data duration (1990–2011). in a northeast to southeast regions of South Asia, which indi-
The analysis revealed that the maximum, mean, and minimum cates relatively high NDVI activity. It is understandable that
spatial patterns for precipitation, temperature, and NDVI the South Asia has a very little vegetation cover with extreme-
values are illustrated in Figs. 2, 3, and 4 for the entire period ly dry weather.
under consideration. The maximum, mean, and minimum
rainfall during 1990–2011 as recorded by the NASA’s Monthly PCI, TCI, NDVI, VHI, and VCI trends
MERRA data was considered by adding monthly precipita-
tion rate to maximum, mean, and minimum values added over To study vegetation growth and drought from a historical
the whole year (Fig. 2). It is obviously visible in the precipi- perspective, the trends for monthly PCI, TCI, NDVI, VHI,
tation maps that most of the precipitation is concentrated in the and VCI values were computed from 1990 to 2011 time
eastern regions of the South Asia, and the northwest and period. The monthly trends from each are presented in
southwest areas are relatively arid. The maximum, mean, Fig. 5. Among the existing vegetation indices, the NDVI
and minimum temperature is shown in Fig. 3. It is clearly and VCI (Wang et al. 2001) are the most widely used to
visible in the temperature maps that the highest temperature analyze vegetation activity from remote sensing data. The
is recorded in the southern regions of the South Asia and the monthly PCI, TCI, VHI, and VCI values showed that the
northeast part of South Asia is relatively low temperature. The South Asia goes through a serious drought in 2000, which
maximum NDVI, which confirms the extent of the farming continues up to 2003, which lead the highest water stress.
and pastoral land cover, is generally located at the northeast There was one major severe drought period present in the
region of south Asia (Fig. 4). This farming zone is associated data. The extreme drought started during 2000 and ended in

Fig. 6 Seasonal average NDVI distribution values, DJF: Dec-Feb, MAM: Mar-May, JJA: Jun-Aug, and SON: Sep-Nov, over South Asia during
(200–2002)

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11476 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2019) 26:11470–11481

2003 years with low PCI and TCI value, which affected most NDVI, VHI, and VCI value in June explained different ac-
regions of South Asia (Fig. 5). This historical incident was tivities, which caused vegetation changes before the start of
focused and contrasted with other results. Kogan (1998) re- May. VCI is an important index that can be used to evaluate
ported that the spatial division of VHI is not spatially similar the influence of drought on agriculture and be widely accept-
because the NDVI and TCI values differ significantly in dif- ed in regional (Kogan et al. 2005). This varied trend may be
ferent months. VHI characterized the drought by the combi- as a result of the differences in vegetation in response to
nation of the land surface temperature and vegetation growth rainfall and air temperature. Abbas et al. (2014) reported that
condition, thus leading to the best performance among the the tendency of drought was declining over the period of
diverse drought indices (Figs. 6 and 7). There were rapid 2003–2010 in South Asia, which is in agreement with the
increases in NDVI, VHI, and VCI from April to October. results revealed in Fig. 5. The regions that received less rain-
Monthly NDVI, VHI, and VCI stabilize in September and fall were under water stress conditions, and in turn, vegeta-
improved again in October and then show a declining trend tion in these areas did not flourish. The NDVI values by
in December. The NDVI, VHI, and VCI are known as the themselves do not reflect drought or non-drought conditions
most satisfactory indexes among the other investigated indi- in a region, but the severity of drought can be expressed by
ces to measure vegetation dynamics and drought over South measuring the deviations of the current NDVI from their
Asia. In fact, various research works have used NDVI, VHI, average conditions (Amin et al. 2011). In a conclusion, the
and VCI to evaluate vegetation dynamics and drought (Amin spatial distribution and changing trends of vegetation and
et al. 2011; Zhou et al. 2017). The NDVI significantly de- drought in Asia are consistent with the earlier research work
creased from January to May, while for June to September focused on the drought evaluating, while there was slight
steadily increased NDVI value. Beyond September, there was variation in detail due to selecting different vegetation and
a further decrease in NDVI value up to December. A monthly drought indices.

Fig. 7 Seasonal average precipitation distribution values, DJF: Dec-Feb, MAM: Mar-May, JJA: Jun-Aug, and SON: Sep-Nov, over South Asia during
(200–2002)

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Environ Sci Pollut Res (2019) 26:11470–11481 11477

Seasonal average NDVI and precipitation distribution precipitation, and air temperature have the same differences
values and are excellent signs to categorize drought-prone regions.
The average NDVI and rainfall maps were generated on a
The NDVI is a numerical sign for vegetation evaluation, seasonal basis during the entire study duration to show the
which was first used by Rouse et al. (1973). The NDVI values severe drought regions in South Asia (Figs. 6 and 7). Some
by themselves do not reflect non-drought or drought environ- studies found that NDVI corresponded to climatic factors,
ment, but the drought severity can be expressed by measuring such as precipitation and temperature, and could be used to
the deviations of the present NDVI from their normal circum- monitor climatic drought (Wang et al. 2001). The spatial maps
stances (Jain et al. 2010). In the current study, the AVHRR showed that the very dry conditions started to develop in sum-
NDVI monthly data was used to calculate the seasonal mean mer (JJA) season over South Asia. However, the normal starts
NDVI. The zero NDVI value indicated low vegetation and is of monsoon in the (JJA) supply sufficient water for the growth
related to drying climate (Fig. 6). These seasonal average of vegetation; therefore, water stress was not visible during
NDVI values were recognized and evaluated to categorize autumn (SON) season except in northwest region of Pakistan
the dry areas in South Asia. The general vegetation dynamics and Afghanistan. The seasonal average NDVI values are pre-
in the period of 1990–2011 are shown as the NDVI seasonal sented in Fig. 6. During winter (DJF) season over South Asia,
average maps. The areas under water stress conditions which the NDVI value is maximum; from spring (MAM) to summer
expected less precipitation and the vegetation cannot grow (JJA) seasons, the NDVI distribution values show a decline
very well. The spatial allocation patterns of NDVI, trend, while autumn (SON) season showed again maximum

Fig. 8 Spatial correlation

coefficient values between 22-
year seasonal; DJF: Dec-Feb,
MAM: Mar-May, JJA: Jun-Aug,
and SON: Sep-Nov, NDVI and
temperature over South Asia dur-
ing (1990–2011)

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11478 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2019) 26:11470–11481

NDVI value. The seasonal average precipitation distribution correlation coefficient values between satellite base NDVI
values are presented in Fig. 7. The highest precipitation values and rainfall and temperature were calculated on a seasonal basis
were shown during summer (JJA) season over South Asia, (Figs. 8 and 9). The correlation coefficient values varied differ-
while lowest seasonal precipitation asset value was indicated ently among various seasons over South Asia. The northeast
during winter (DJF) season. During later months, the low part of the South Asia was negatively a correlation between
precipitation started and emerges dryness again, which NDVI and temperature during summer (JJA) season. It means
covered most of the South Asia areas. Huang et al. (2015) that the performance of NDVI for northeast regions of the
reported that the Asia suffers severe drought in winter season; South Asia is not dependable on air temperature. The correla-
Song et al. (2014) also reported that drought in the northwest tion between NDVI and temperature values had been signifi-
region is more severe than in the southeast region in Asia. cantly positive during DJF, MAM, and SON seasons over
South Asia. It indicated positive indication that NDVI is an
Spatial correlation analysis excellent sign to monitor drought. The farming land is situated
in this area and plays a significant role in crops production. As a
The performance of NDVI was further studied by calculating result, superior performance of NDVI in this area is very vital
spatial correlation analysis with precipitation and air tempera- for elevation and monitoring drought. The northeast region of
ture on a seasonal basis is present in Figs. 8 and 9, while a the South Asia was negatively correlated between NDVI and
spatial correlation analysis between VHI and TCI on a seasonal precipitation during winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) seasons,
basis is shown in Fig. 10. For this reason, entire study period while significantly positive correlation between NDVI and
was separated into four seasons (1) winter (DJF), (2) spring rainfall values was present in southeast part of South Asia dur-
(MAM), (3) summer (JJA), and (4) autumn (SON). The ing JJA and SON seasons. Previous study suggested that this

Fig. 9 Spatial correlation

coefficient values between 22-
year seasonal; DJF: Dec-Feb,
MAM: Mar-May, JJA: Jun-Aug,
and SON: Sep-Nov, NDVI and
Precipitation over South Asia
during (1990–2011)

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Environ Sci Pollut Res (2019) 26:11470–11481 11479

Fig. 10 Spatial correlation

coefficient values between 22-
year seasonal; DJF: Dec-Feb,
MAM: Mar-May, JJA: Jun-Aug
and SON: Sep-Nov, VHI and TCI
over South Asia during (1990–
2011)

result may also be due to lag effect between rainfall and vege- Conclusion
tation (Karnieli et al. 2010). The southeast region of the South
Asia was also subject to negative values in DJF and MAM The aim of this research work was to investigate the spatio-
periods. The areas having non-significant correlation between temporal differences in vegetation dynamics and drought over
NDVI and rainfall indicated the value of other influence factors South Asia. Due to the low vegetation and dryness, the NDVI
like humidity, soil water content, and temperature. The spatial is more helpful in describing the drought condition in South
association analysis between VHI and TCI showed significant- Asia. There were rapid increases in NDVI, VHI, and VCI
ly higher positive correlation values during MAM and SON from April to October. Monthly NDVI, VHI, and VCI stabi-
seasons, which indicated a good sign for drought evaluation lize in September and improved once more in October and
particularly for farming areas during these seasons in South then show a declining trend in December. The monthly PCI,
Asia. A positive relationship is supposed to happen when en- TCI, VHI, and VCI values showed that the South Asia suf-
ergy is the restraining factor for vegetation and not the lack of fered a severe drought in 2000, which constant up to 2002,
water (Hua et al. 2015). It was confirmed that these indexes are which lead the highest water stress. Spatial correlation gener-
a comprehensive drought monitoring indicator and a step to ated among NDVI, precipitation, air temperature, VHI, and
monitoring the climate change in South Asia, which will play VCI on a seasonal basis. The correlation between NDVI, pre-
a relevant role ongoing studies on vegetation types, monitoring cipitation, and air temperature showed a significantly higher
climate change and drought over South Asia. correlation in MAM, JJA, and SON periods, while the

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11480 Environ Sci Pollut Res (2019) 26:11470–11481

correlation between VHI and TCI showed significantly higher Dorman M, Svoray T, Perevolotsky A, Sarris D (2013) Forest perfor-
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Shandong natural science foundation of China (ZR2017ZB0422), the The north temperate oceanic oscillation and European vegetation
Ch i n a Po st d oc t or a l Sc i e nc e Fou nd a t i on Pro j e c t F un di ng dynamics. Int J Climatol 28:1835–1847
(2018M642614), and BTaishan Scholar^ project of Shandong Province. Gouveia C, Trigo RM, DaCamara CC (2009) Drought and vegetation
stress monitoring in Portugal using satellite data. Nat Hazards
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pacts on vegetation in the pre and post-fire events over Iberian
Conflict of interest The authors declare that they have no conflict of Peninsula. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 12:3123–3137
interest. Holzman ME, Rivas R, Piccolo MC (2014) Estimating soil moisture and
the relationship with crop yield using surface temperature and veg-
Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdic- etation index. Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinf 28:181–192
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