Chapter 02
Chapter 02
Chapter 02
Chapter 2
PROBABILITY
Objectives
1. To define the random experiment and its sample space.
2. To define the event of an experiment and its type.
3. To find out the number of ways an experiment can take place.
4. To introduce three approaches to assessing probabilities.
5. To check the validity of the axioms of probability.
6. To apply common rules of probability (Addition Rule & Multiplication
Rule).
7. To calculate the conditional probability of an event.
8. To determine the independence of events.
9. To use Bayes’ Theorem to calculate conditional probabilities.
10. To define the random variable based on a sample space.
2-1.3 Events
Elementary Event: the most basic outcome possible from a simple experiment
Events: a subset of the sample space satisfying a certain condition.
Joint events: an event that has two or more characteristic.
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DeMorgan’s laws:
(A⋃B)’ = A’ ⋂ B’ and (A⋂B)’ = A’ ⋃ B’
Example 5:
Let S e1 , e 2 ,...,e 8 and E1 e1 , e3 , e5 , e7 , E2 e2 , e4 , e6 , e8 , are the two events
mutually exclusive? Why?
Answer: Yes, because E1 ∩ E2 = φ = { }.
Example 6:
Drawing one card from an ordinary deck of cards. Defined the events E1 = a
queen card; E2 = a clubs card. Are the two events mutually exclusive? Why?
Answer: No, because E1 ∩ E2 = {QC}
E1 = {Queen Spades , Queen Clubs , Queen Hearts , Queen Diamonds} & E2 =
{AC , 2C , 3C , … , 10C , JC , QC , KC}
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Example 9:
An automobile consultant records fuel type and vehicle type for a sample of
vehicles
Two fuel types: Gasoline, Diesel
Three vehicle types: Truck, Car, SUV
Example 10:
If two customers are asked to list their choice of ice cream flavor from among
vanilla, chocolate and strawberry. List the sample space showing the possible
outcomes.
Answer: S = {V1 , C1 , S1 , V2 , C2 , S2}
Multiplication Rule
Theorem If sets A1, A2, …, Ak contain respectively, n1, n2, …, nk elements,
there are n1•n2•••nk ways of choosing first an element of A1, then an element of
A2, …, and finally an element of Ak.
Example 1:
In how many different ways can a union with 25 members choose a president and
a vice president?
Answer: #ways = 25×24 = 600 ways
Example 2:
If a test consists of 12 questions, in how many different ways can a student mark
the test paper?
Answer: #ways = 212 = 4096 ways
Permutations
Let us denote the number of permutations of n different elements by
n! = n(n–1)( n–2)…3.2.1 and let 0! = 1 by definition.
Referring back to example 1 above, we can generalize according to the following
theorem:
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Permutations Subsets
Theorem The number of permutations of r objects selected (ordered) from a
set of n distinct objects is
n!
n Pr n n 1 n 2 ... n r 1
n r !
Example 3:
In how many different ways can a union with 25 members choose a president, a
vice president, a secretary, and a clerk?
Answer: #ways = 25P4 = 25!/21! = 303600 ways
Example 4:
In bar-code labeling, a part is labeled by printing with four thick lines, three
medium lines, and two thin lines. If each ordering of the nine lines represents a
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different bar-code label, how many different labels can be generated using this
scheme?
If the order is not important then the number of ways, certainly, will become,
significantly, less as given the following theorem:
Example 5:
In how many different ways can 3 of 20 lab assistants be chosen to assist with an
experiment?
Answer: #ways = 20C3 = 20!/(3!×17!) = 1140 ways
Example 6:
In how many different ways can the director of a research lab choose 2 chemists
from among 7 applicants and 3 physicists form among 9 ones?
Answer: #ways = 7C2×9C3 = 1764 ways
Example 7:
A bin of 50 manufactured parts contains 3 defective parts and 47 nondefective
parts. A sample of 6 parts is selected without replacement. How many different
samples are there of size 6 that contain exactly
defective parts?
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But, what to do if the elementary events cannot all be regarded as equally likely?
It would be more convenient to employ the relative frequency concept.
2. Empirical probability (Relative Frequency of Occurrence):
The chance of occurrence of the event is defined by the equation
3. Subjective probability
Based on a combination of an individual’s past experience, personal
opinion, and analysis of a particular situation
Example 1:
What is the probability of drawing an ace from an ordinary deck of 52 playing
cards?
Answer: P(Ace) = 4/52 = 1/13 = 0.077.
Example 2:
If records shows that 294 of 300 ceramic insulators tested were able to withstand
a certain thermal shock, what is the probability that any one untested insulator
will be able to withstand the thermal shock?
Answer: P(withstand) = 294/300 = 0.98.
Example 3:
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Example 4:
Suppose 10 motors have been fabricated but that in spite of tests performed on
the individual motors, 2 will not operate satisfactorily when placed into a capsule.
To fabricate a new capsule, 2 motors will be randomly selected (each pair of
motors has the same chance of being selected). Find the probability that
a. both motors will operate satisfactorily in the capsule.
b. the first operates but not the second.
c. one motor will operate satisfactorily and the other will not.
Answer: W: Working, N: Not working
a. P(2W) = (8C2)(2C0)/10C2 = = 56/90 = 0.622
Axioms of Probability
We define the set function P(.): S [0,1].
If the sample space of an experiment is S = {e1, e2, e3,…, ek}
1. Individual values (Axiom 1):
0 ≤ P(ei) ≤ 1, for any event ei
2. Sum of all values (Axiom 2)
k
P(S) = P( e ) = 1
i 1
i
where:
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Example 1:
If an experiment has the three possible and mutually exclusive outcomes A, B,
and C, check, in each case, whether the assignment of probabilities is permissible
(valid):
a. P(A) = 1/3, P(B) = 1/3, and P(C ) = 1/3. valid
b. P(A) = 0.64, P(B) = 0.38, and P(C ) = – 0.02. not valid
c. P(A) = 0.35, P(B) = 0.52, and P(C ) = 0.26. not valid
d. P(A) = 0.57, P(B) = 0.24, and P(C ) = 0.19. valid
Similarly,
P(A U B U C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(A ⋂ B) – P(B ⋂ C) – P(A ⋂ C)
+ P(A⋂B⋂C)
Similarly,
k k
k
If E1, E2, …, Ek are mutually exclusive, then P Ei = 0 and P( Ei ) = P(E )i
i 1 i 1 i 1
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Complement Rule
E’ is the collection of all possible elementary events not contained in
event E. Sometimes it is denoted by E or Ec .
P(E) 1 P(E) or P(E) P(E) 1
Example 1:
Drawing one card from a deck of cards. Defined the events
A = Ace; B = Black card;
D = Diamonds; R = Red pictures
Are all events collectively exhaustive? No
Are all events mutually exclusive? No
Are the events B, D and R collectively exhaustive? No
Are the events B, D and R mutually exclusive? No
Example 2:
For a sample of 80 recently born babies, the following table is obtained:
Weight
Gender < 2.5 kg 2.5 - 3 kg > 3 kg
Boy 4 35 10 49
Girl 3 22 6 31
7 57 16 80
a. What is the probability that a randomly selected baby is a boy?
b. What is the probability that a baby is over weight?
c. What is the probability that a baby is a girl and her weight is between 2.5
and 3 kg?
d. Suppose a baby was chosen at random. Consider the two events: the event
that a boy was chosen and the event that an over weight baby was chosen.
Are these two events mutually exclusive? Explain.
e. What is the probability that a randomly chosen baby is a girl given that she
is under weight?
Answer: N(B)=49, N(G)=31, N(bAv)=7, N(Av)=57, N(aAv)=16
N(B∩Av)=35, N(G∩aAv)=6
a. P(B)=49/80 b. P(aAV)=16/80 c. P(G∩Av)=22/80
d. No.
e.
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Example 3:
Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air conditioning (AC) and 40% have a
CD player (CD), and 20% of the cars have both.
a. What is the probability that a car has a CD player or it has an AC?
b. What is the probability that a car has a CD player, given that it has an AC?
c. What is the probability that a car has no CD and has no AC?
d. What is the probability that a car has no CD but has an AC?
Answer: P(AC)=0.7, P(CD)=0.4, P(AC∩CD)=0.2
b. P(CD|AC)= P(AC∩CD)/P(AC)=0.2/0.7=0.287
c. P(CD’∩AC’)=0.1
d. P(CD’∩AC)=0.5
Example 1:
The table below shows the classification of 400 parts by surface Flaws and as
Defective.
If you know that 90% of them are of no surface Flaws, 64.3% of the Defectives
have no surface Flaws and 75% are non-Defectives given that they have surface
Flaws. How many parts:
a. have a surface Flaw?
b. are Defectives given that they have surface Flaws?
c. have a surface Flaw given that they are non-Defectives? Can you?
Answer:
Surface Flaws
Defective F F' Total
D
D'
Total 0.1 0.9 1
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Example 1:
Recall example 1 before. How many parts:
a. are Defectives? 0.07003 28.0112
b. have surface Flaws given that they are non-Defectives?
Answer:
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2-6 INDEPENDENCE
Independent and Dependent Events
Independent: The two events are independent if the occurrence of one
does not affect the occurrence of the other, so it does not affect the
probability of the other
Dependent: The two events are dependent if the occurrence of one
affects the probability of the other
P( B| A) P( B) where P A 0
Example 1:
Let S e1 , e2 , e3 , e4 , e5 , e6 , e7 , e8 and E1 e1 , e3 , e5 , e7 , E2 e2 , e4 , e6 , e8
E3 e1 , e3 , e6 , e8 , E4 e2 , e5 , e7 , and P e1 P e3 0.1, P e2 P e4 0.15
P e5 P e7 0.01, P e6 0.05 , then find
a. P e8 1 – (.1+.15+.1+.15+.01+.05+.01) = 1 – 0.57 = 0.43
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b. P E1 .1+.1+.01+.01 = 0.22
c. P E3 .1+.1+.05+.43 = 0.68
d. P E4 1-P(E4) =1 – (.15+.01+.01) = 1 – 0.17 = 0.83
e. P E1 or E3 P(E1 U E3)=P(E1) + P(E3) – P(E1 ∩ E3) = 0.22 + 0.68 – 0.2 =
0.7
f. P E1 or E2 P(E1 U E2)=P(E1) + P(E2) = 0.22 + 0.78 – 0 = 1=P(S)
g. P E 1 or E 3 1 – 0.7 = 0.3
h. P E 1 E 3 = 0.2 / 0. 68 = 0.294
i. Are E1 and E4 independent? Explain. No
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Example 2:
A box contains 20 electrical fuses out of which 4 are defective. If two fuses are
randomly selected with replacement, then answer the following;
a. What is the probability that both fuses are defective? 1/25
b. What is the probability that ONLY the first fuse is defective? 4/25
c. What is the probability that the first fuse is defective? 1/5
d. What is the probability that ONLY one fuse is defective? 8/25
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Example 3:
Historically, on a certain day the weather in certain city has the following
distribution:
Event Relative frequency
Clear & dry 0.20
Cloudy & dry 0.30
Rain 0.40
Snow 0.10
Example 4:
A basketball team has 10 players. Five are seniors, two are juniors and three are
freshmen. Two players are randomly selected to serve as captains for the next
game.
a. What is the probability that both players selected are seniors?
b. What is the probability that the first is junior?
c. If three players were selected, what is the probability that the first is
junior and the other two are freshmen?
Answer:
a. P(2S,0J,0F)=5C2/10C2=0.222 =(5/10)*(4/9) = 5P2/10P2 = 2/9
b. P(J,S)+P(J,F)+P(J,J)=(2P1×5P1+2P1×3P1+ 2P2)/10P2= 2/10
c. P(J,2F) = ( 2P1×3P2)/10P3 = 1/60
Notes:
1. If multiple selections take place from the SAME category (group) then it
can be calculated by either a combination or a permutation.
2. In case of selecting two units, if the second can be ANYTHING then it is
enough to find the probability of the first selection ONLY regardless of
the second selection.
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Example 5:
The following table represents number of students in KFUPM from eastern
province and from other provinces, and being a sophomore or a freshman
Eastern Not eastern Total
S 256 940 1196
F 340 784 1124
Total 596 1724 2320
Example 6:
Assume that business conditions in any year can be classified as either good or
bad. Suppose that if business is good this year, then it will be also good next year
with probability 0.7. Also suppose that if business is bad this year, then with
probability 0.4 it will be good next year. The probability that business will be
good this year is 0.6. Find the probability that the following statements are true
a. Business conditions both this year and next year will be good. 0.42
b. Business conditions will be good this year and bad next year. 0.18
c. Business conditions will be bad both years. 0.24
d. Business conditions will be good next year. 0.58
e. Given that business conditions are good next year, what is the probability
that they were good this year? 0.72
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b. P(M|F) = 0.003/0.0235=0.128
E1 E2 Ek
Example 2:
Three sections each working on a big senior project, it was known that usually
from section 1 only 2% of the students does not submit the project on time, from
section 2 only 3% of the students does not submit the project on time, and from
section 3 only 4% of the students does not submit the project on time. If the three
sections were given 50%, 30%, and 20% of the work respectively, find the
following:
a. The probability that part of the project will not be submitted on time (Late).
27
= 0.027
1000
b. If part of the project was not submitted on time, what is the probability that
0.009 1
it was from section 2? = = 0.3333
0.027 3
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