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    Pert Solution

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    Ratnadip Saha
    The document discusses the activities and durations of a project. It provides the optimistic, pessimistic and most likely durations of each activity. It asks to find the critical path, project completion time, probability of completing the project by certain weeks, assured completion time and completion time with 95% probability under different scenarios.

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    Pert Solution

    Uploaded by

    Ratnadip Saha
    55 views3 pages
    The document discusses the activities and durations of a project. It provides the optimistic, pessimistic and most likely durations of each activity. It asks to find the critical path, project completion time, probability of completing the project by certain weeks, assured completion time and completion time with 95% probability under different scenarios.

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    The document discusses the activities and durations of a project. It provides the optimistic, pessimistic and most likely durations of each activity. It asks to find the critical path, project completion time, probability of completing the project by certain weeks, assured completion time and completion time with 95% probability under different scenarios.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as doc, pdf, or txt
    55 views3 pages

    Pert Solution

    Uploaded by

    Ratnadip Saha
    The document discusses the activities and durations of a project. It provides the optimistic, pessimistic and most likely durations of each activity. It asks to find the critical path, project completion time, probability of completing the project by certain weeks, assured completion time and completion time with 95% probability under different scenarios.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as doc, pdf, or txt
    of 3

    Activities and duration of a project are given below.

    Duration (Week)
    Activity Predecessor(s) Optimistic Pessimistic Most likely
    (a) (b) (m)
    A 6 10 8
    B A 4 16 7
    C A 2 6 4
    D B 1 5 3
    E B 3 11 4
    F C 4 10 5.5
    G D, E 3 9 4.5
    H E, F 2 4 3
    I G, H 4 6 5

    (a) Draw a network diagram and find the critical path and project completion time considering expected
    time as duration.
    (b) Find the probability to complete the project in 34 weeks/in 27 weeks
    (c) Find the assured completion time.
    (d) Find the completion time with 95% probability.
    (e) If optimistic time prevails in activities A, E and G, most likely time prevails in activity F, and pessimistic
    time prevails in activity H then find the critical path and project completion time.

    Solution:

    Calculation of expected time and variance of each of the activities.

    ET = Variance =
    Duration (Week) (a+b+4m)/6 (b – a)2/62
    Activity Predecessor(s) Optimistic Pessimistic Most likely Expected Variance
    (a) (b) (m) Time (V)
    A 6 10 8 8 0.45
    B A 3 15 6 7 4
    C A 2 6 4 4 0.45
    D B 1 5 3 3 0.45
    E B 3 11 4 5 1.77
    F C 4 10 5.5 6 1
    G D, E 3 9 4.5 5 1
    H E, F 2 4 3 3 0.11
    I G, H 4 6 5 5 0.11
    a)
    LS 17 LC 20

    D, et = 3
    LS 20 LC 25
    ES 15 EC 18
    G, et = 5
    ES 20 EC 25
    LS 8 LC 15 LS 15 LC 20

    B, et = 7 E, et = 5
    LS 25 LC 30
    ES 8 EC 15 ES 15 EC 20
    LS 0 LC 8
    I, et = 5
    A, et = 8 ES 25 EC 30
    ES 0 EC 8
    LS 22 LC 25

    LS 12 LC 16 H, et = 3
    LS 16 LC 22 ES 20 EC 23
    C, et = 4
    ES 8 EC 12 F, et = 6
    ES 12 EC 18

    Project Completion time/Project duration (PD) = 30 weeks


    Critical path = A, B, E, G, I

    b) Probability to complete the project in 34 weeks: Consider no of std. dev. is Z

    So Z = (T – PD)/σ
    Where T = 34 weeks, PD = 30 weeks, σ = SQRT(∑Vcp) = SQRT(0.45 + 4 + 1.77 + 1 +0.11) = 2.7

    Z = (34 -30)/2.7 = 1.48


    Probability = 0.9306 ( from Z table) = 93.06%

    Therefore, probability to complete the project in 34 weeks is 93.06%

    Probability to complete the project in 27 weeks: Consider no of std. dev. is Z

    So Z = (T – PD)/σ
    Where T = 27 weeks, PD = 30 weeks, σ = SQRT(∑Vcp) = SQRT(0.45 + 4 + 1.77 + 1 +0.11) = 2.7

    Z = (27 -30)/2.7 = -1.11


    Probability = 1- 0.8665 ( from Z table) = 0.1335= 13.35%

    Therefore, probability to complete the project in 27 weeks is 13.35%

    c) Assured completion time means completion time with 100% probability

    Then Z = 3.9, T =?
    So Z = (T – PD)/σ
    Where T = ?, PD = 30 weeks, σ = SQRT(∑Vcp) = SQRT(0.45 + 4 + 1.77 + 1 +0.11) = 2.7

    3.9 = (T -30)/2.7
    T = 30 + 3.9 x 2.7 = 40.53 weeks

    Assured completion time is 40.53 weeks


    d) Completion time with 95% probability = T

    Then Z = 1.75, T =?
    So Z = (T – PD)/σ
    Where T = ?, PD = 30 weeks, σ = SQRT(∑Vcp) = SQRT(0.45 + 4 + 1.77 + 1 +0.11) = 2.7

    1.75 = (T -30)/2.7
    T = 30 + 1.75 x 2.7 = 34.7 weeks

    Completion time with 95% probability is 34.7 weeks

    e)

    LS 14 LC 17

    D, et = 3
    LS 17 LC 20
    ES 13 EC 16
    G, et = 3
    ES 16 EC 19
    LS 6 LC 13 LS 13 LC 16

    B, et = 7 E, et = 3
    LS 20 LC 25
    ES 6 EC 13 ES 13 EC 16
    LS 0 LC 6
    I, et = 5
    A, et = 6 ES 20 EC 25
    ES 0 EC 6
    LS 16 LC 20

    LS 6.5 LC 10.5 H, et = 4
    LS 10.5 LC 16 ES 16 EC 20
    C, et = 4
    ES 6 EC 10 F, et = 5.5
    ES 10 EC 15.5

    Project Completion time/Project duration (PD) = 25 weeks


    Critical path = A, B, E, H, I

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