Applied Statistics in Business and Economics 5Th Edition David Doane Full Chapter
Applied Statistics in Business and Economics 5Th Edition David Doane Full Chapter
Applied Statistics in Business and Economics 5Th Edition David Doane Full Chapter
David P. Doane
Oakland University
Lori E. Seward
University of Colorado
APPLIED STATISTICS IN BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS, FIFTH EDITION
Published by McGraw-Hill Education, 2 Penn Plaza, New York, NY 10121. Copyright © 2016 by McGraw-Hill
Education. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Previous editions © 2013, 2011, and
2009. No part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in
a database or retrieval system, without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education, including, but not
limited to, in any network or other electronic storage or transmission, or broadcast for distance learning.
Some ancillaries, including electronic and print components, may not be available to customers outside the
United States.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 DOW/DOW 1 0 9 8 7 6 5
ISBN 978-0-07-783730-3
MHID 0-07-783730-4
All credits appearing on page or at the end of the book are considered to be an extension of the copyright page.
Doane, David P.
Applied statistics in business and economics / David P. Doane, Lori E. Seward. — Fifth edition.
pages cm
ISBN 978-0-07-783730-3 (alk. paper)
1. Commercial statistics. 2. Management—Statistical methods. 3. Economics—Statistical methods.
4. Statistics. I. Seward, Lori Welte, 1962- II. Title.
HF1017.D55 2016
519.5—dc23
2014044939
The Internet addresses listed in the text were accurate at the time of publication. The inclusion of a website does
not indicate an endorsement by the authors or McGraw-Hill Education, and McGraw-Hill Education does not
guarantee the accuracy of the information presented at these sites.
www.mhhe.com
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
David P. Doane
David P. Doane is a Certified Professional Statistician (PStatTM) by the American Statistical
Association. He is professor emeritus in Oakland University’s Department of Decision and
Information Sciences. He earned his Bachelor of Arts degree in mathematics and economics at
the University of Kansas and his PhD from Purdue University’s Krannert Graduate School. His
research and teaching interests include applied statistics, forecasting, and statistical education.
He is corecipient of three National Science Foundation grants to develop software to teach
statistics and to create a computer classroom. He is a longtime member of the American
Statistical Association, serving in 2002 as president of the Detroit ASA. He has consulted
with government, health care organizations, and local firms. He has published articles in many
academic journals and is the co-author of Visual Statistics (McGraw-Hill, 1997, 2001).
Lori E. Seward
Lori E. Seward is a senior instructor of Operations Management in The Leeds School of
Business at the University of Colorado in Boulder. She earned her Bachelor of Science and
Master of Science degrees in Industrial Engineering at Virginia Tech. After several years work-
ing as a reliability and quality engineer in the paper and automotive industries, she earned her
PhD from Virginia Tech and joined the faculty at The Leeds School in 1998. She has been the
coordinator of the undergraduate core business statistics course and currently teaches the core
MBA statistics course. She is also responsible for coordinating the undergraduate program
in Operations Management. She served as the chair of the INFORMS Teachers’ Workshop
for the annual 2004 meeting. Her teaching interests focus on developing pedagogy that uses
technology to create a collaborative learning environment in large undergraduate and MBA
statistics courses. Her most recent article, co-authored with David Doane, was published in
the Journal of Statistics Education (2011).
DEDICATION
To Robert Hamilton Doane-Solomon
David
To all my students who challenged me to make statistics relevant to their lives.
Lori
v
FROM THE
“How often have you heard people/students say about a particular subject, ‘I’ll never use this in the real world’? I
thought statistics was a bit on the ‘math-geeky’ side at first. Imagine my horror when I saw α, R2, and correlations
on several financial reports at my current job (an intern position at a financial services company). I realized then that
I had better try to understand some of this stuff.”
—Jill Odette (an introductory statistics student)
As recently as a decade ago our students used to ask us, “How do I use statistics?” Today we more often hear, “Why should
I use statistics?” Applied Statistics in Business and Economics has attempted to provide real meaning to the use of statistics
in our world by using real business situations and real data and appealing to your need to know why rather than just how.
With over 50 years of teaching statistics between the two of us, we feel we have something to offer. Seeing how students
have changed as the new century unfolds has required us to adapt and seek out better ways of instruction. So we wrote
Applied Statistics in Business and Economics to meet four distinct objectives.
Objective 1: Communicate the Meaning of Variation in a Business Context Variation exists everywhere in the
world around us. Successful businesses know how to measure variation. They also know how to tell when variation should
be responded to and when it should be left alone. We’ll show how businesses do this.
Objective 2: Use Real Data and Real Business Applications Examples, case studies, and problems are taken from
published research or real applications whenever possible. Hypothetical data are used when it seems the best way to illustrate
a concept. You can usually tell the difference by examining the footnotes citing the source.
Objective 3: Incorporate Current Statistical Practices and Offer Practical Advice With the increased reliance
on computers, statistics practitioners have changed the way they use statistical tools. We’ll show the current practices and
explain why they are used the way they are. We will also tell you when each technique should not be used.
Objective 4: Provide More In-Depth Explanation of the Why and Let the Software Take Care of the How It is critical
to understand the importance of communicating with data. Today’s computer capabilities make it much easier to summarize and
display data than ever before. We demonstrate easily mastered software techniques using the common software available. We also
spend a great deal of time on the idea that there are risks in decision making and those risks should be quantified and directly
considered in every business decision.
Our experience tells us that students want to be given credit for the experience they bring to the college classroom. We have
tried to honor this by choosing examples and exercises set in situations that will draw on students’ already vast knowledge of
the world and knowledge gained from other classes. Emphasis is on thinking about data, choosing appropriate analytic tools,
using computers effectively, and recognizing limitations of statistics.
vi
AUTHORS
• Clarification of Wilcoxon rank sum test (Mann–Whitney test) with illustration of two versions.
• End of each chapter guides to downloads from Connect® (simulations, demonstrations, tips, and video tutorials for Excel,
MegaStat, and MINITAB).
Software
Excel is used throughout this book because it is available everywhere. Some calculations are illustrated using MegaStat, an Excel
add-in whose Excel-based menus and spreadsheet format offer more capability than Excel’s Data Analysis Tools. MINITAB
menus and examples are also included to point out similarities and differences of these tools. To assist students who need extra
help or “catch up” work, the text website contains tutorials or demonstrations on using Excel, MINITAB, or MegaStat for the tasks
of each chapter. At the end of each chapter is a list of LearningStats demonstrations that illustrate the concepts from the chapter.
These demonstrations can be found in the Connect product for this text.
Math Level
The assumed level of mathematics is pre-calculus, though there are rare references to calculus where it might help the
better-trained reader. All but the simplest proofs and derivations are omitted, though key assumptions are stated clearly. The
learner is advised what to do when these assumptions are not fulfilled. Worked examples are included for basic calcula-
tions, but the textbook does assume that computers will do the calculations after the statistics class is over, so, interpreta-
tion is paramount. End-of-chapter references and suggested websites are given so that interested readers can deepen their
understanding.
Exercises
Simple practice exercises are placed within each section. End-of-chapter exercises tend to be more integrative or to be embed-
ded in more realistic contexts. Attention has been given to revising exercises so that they have clear-cut answers that are
matched to specific learning objectives. A few exercises invite short answers rather than just quoting a formula. Answers to most
odd-numbered exercises are in the back of the book (all of the answers are in the instructor’s manual).
LearningStats
Connect users can access LearningStats, a collection of Excel spreadsheets, Word documents, and PowerPoints for each chapter.
It is intended to let students explore data and concepts at their own pace, ignoring material they already know and focusing on
things that interest them. LearningStats includes explanations on topics that are not covered in other software packages, such
as how to write effective reports, how to perform calculations, or how to make effective charts. It also includes topics that did
not appear prominently in the textbook (e.g., partial F-test, Durbin–Watson test, sign test, bootstrap simulation, and logistic
regression). Instructors can use LearningStats PowerPoint presentations in the classroom, but Connect users can also use them
for self-instruction. No instructor can “cover everything,” but students can be encouraged to explore LearningStats data sets and/
or demonstrations perhaps with an instructor’s guidance.
David P. Doane
Lori E. Seward
vii
HOW ARE CHAPTERS ORGANIZED
Chapter Contents
CHAPTER CONTENTS
Each chapter begins with a short list of sec-
1.1 What Is Statistics?
tion topics that are covered in the chapter.
1.2 Why Study Statistics?
1.3 Statistics in Business
1.4 Statistical Challenges
Section Exercises SECTION EXERCISES 4.12 (a) For each data set, find the median, midrange, and geometric mean. (b) Are they reasonable
measures of central tendency? Explain.
Multiple section exercises are found a. Exam scores (9 students) 42, 55, 65, 67, 68, 75, 76, 78, 94
throughout the chapter so that students can b. GPAs (8 students)
c. Class absences (12 students)
2.25, 2.55, 2.95, 3.02, 3.04, 3.37, 3.51, 3.66
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5, 15
focus on material just learned. 4.13 (a) Write the Excel function for the 10 percent trimmed mean of a data set in cells A1:A50.
(b) How many observations would be trimmed in each tail? (c) How many would be trimmed
overall?
4.14 In the Excel function 5TRIMMEAN(Data,.10), how many observations would be trimmed from each
end of the sorted data array named Data if (a) n 5 41, (b) n 5 66, and (c) n 5 83?
4.15 The city of Sonando Hills has 8 police officers. In January, the work-related medical expenses
for each officer were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 150, 650. (a) Calculate the mean, median, mode, midrange,
and geometric mean. (b) Which measure of center would you use to budget the expected medical
expenses for the whole year by all officers?
Mini Cases
Mini Case 4.2
Every chapter includes two or three mini
Prices of Lipitor®
cases, which are solved applications. They
Prescription drug prices vary across the United States and even among pharmacies in the
show and illlustrate the analytical appli- same city. A consumer research group examined prices for a 30-day supply of Lipitor®
(a cholesterol-lowering prescription drug) in three U.S. cities at various pharmacies. Atten-
cation of specific statistical concepts at a tion has recently been focused on prices of such drugs because recent medical research has
deeper level than the examples. suggested more aggressive treatment of high cholesterol levels in patients at risk for heart
disease. This poses an economic issue for government because Medicare is expected to pay
some of the cost of prescription drugs. It is also an issue for Pfizer, the maker of Lipitor®,
who expects a fair return on its investments in research and patents. Finally, it is an issue
for consumers who seek to shop wisely.
From the dot plots in Figure 4.17, we gain an impression of the variability of the
data (the range of prices for each drug) as well as the center of the data (the middle or
typical data values). Lipitor® prices vary from about $60 to about $91 and typically are
in the $70s. The dot plots suggest that Providence tends to have higher prices, and New
doa37304_ch04_106-167.indd 122 Orleans lower prices, though there is considerable variation among pharmacies. 11/21/14 5:48 PM
Grand Rapids
Providence
New Orleans
60 70 80 90
viii
FIGURE 4.19
Center versus Variability
Machine A Machine B
20 12
Actual Desired Actual Desired
10
15
Percent
Percent 8
10 6
4
5
2
0 0
4.988 4.992 4.996 5.000 5.004 5.008 5.012 4.992 4.994 4.996 4.998 5.000 5.002 5.004
Diameter of Hole Diameter of Hole
Examples EXAMPLE 3.2 Figure 3.15 shows the U.S. balance of trade. The arithmetic scale shows that growth
Examples of interest to U.S. Trade
has been exponential. Yet, although exports and imports are increasing in absolute
terms, the log graph suggests that the growth rate in both series may be slowing because
students are taken from USTrade the log graph is slightly concave. On the log graph, the recently increasing trade deficit
is not relatively as large. Regardless how it is displayed, the trade deficit remains a
published research or real concern for policymakers, for fear that foreigners may no longer wish to purchase U.S.
applications to illustrate debt instruments to finance the trade deficit.
Billions of Dollars
500
dent projects.
0 10
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
A data set icon is used throughout the text to identify data sets used in the figures, examples, and
USTrade
exercises that are included in Connect for the text.
ix
HOW DOES THIS TEXT REINFORCE
Chapter Summary
For a set of observations on a single numerical variable, a stem-and-leaf plot or a dot plot displays the CHAPTER SUMMARY
Chapter summaries provide individual data values, while a frequency distribution classifies the data into classes called bins for a
histogram of frequencies for each bin. The number of bins and their limits are matters left to your judg-
an overview of the material ment, though Sturges’ Rule offers advice on the number of bins. The line chart shows values of one or
more time series variables plotted against time. A log scale is sometimes used in time series charts when
covered in the chapter. data vary by orders of magnitude. The bar chart or column chart shows a numerical data value for
each category of an attribute. However, a bar chart can also be used for a time series. A scatter plot can
reveal the association (or lack of association) between two variables X and Y. The pie chart (showing a
numerical data value for each category of an attribute if the data values are parts of a whole) is common
but should be used with caution. Sometimes a simple table is the best visual display. Creating effective
visual displays is an acquired skill. Excel offers a wide range of charts from which to choose. Deceptive
graphs are found frequently in both media and business presentations, and the consumer should be aware
of common errors.
Key Terms
KEY TERMS Center Variability Shape Other
Key terms are highlighted and geometric mean
mean
Chebyshev’s
Theorem
bimodal
distribution
box plot
covariance
defined within the text. They median coefficient of kurtosis five-number
midhinge variation leptokurtic summary
are also listed at the ends of midrange Empirical Rule mesokurtic interquartile
mode mean absolute multimodal range
chapters to aid in reviewing. trimmed mean deviation distribution method of
weighted mean outliers negatively medians
population skewed quartiles
variance platykurtic sample correlation
range positively skewed coefficient
sample variance skewed left
d d k d i h
i 51
xi 11/21/14 5:48 PM
√__x 2 1
n21 xn
Growth rate: GR 5
mulas for the topic under 1
√O
___________
n
__ 2
(xi 2 x )
i 51
Sample standard deviation: s 5 ___________
n21
Chapter Review CHAPTER REVIEW 1. Define (a) data, (b) data set, (c) observation, and (d) variable.
Each chapter has a list of 2. How do business data differ from scientific experimental data?
3. Distinguish (a) univariate, bivariate, and multivariate data; (b) discrete and continuous data;
questions for student self- (c) numerical and categorical data.
review or for discussion. 4. Define the four measurement levels and give an example of each.
5. Explain the difference between cross-sectional data and time series data.
More Learning
CHAPTER 3 More Learning Resources
Resources You can access these LearningStats demonstrations through McGraw-Hill’s Connect® to help you
understand visual data displays.
LearningStats provides a means
Topic LearningStats Demonstrations
for Connect users to explore Effective visual displays Presenting Data—I
data and concepts at their own Presenting Data—II
EDA Graphics
pace. Applications that relate to How to make an Excel chart Excel Charts: Step-by-Step
Pivot Tables: Step-by-Step
the material in the chapter are Using MegaStat
identified by topic at the end of Excel Charts: Histograms
Using MINITAB
each chapter. Applications Bimodal Data
Sturges’ Rule
Stem-and-Leaf Plots
Screen Cam Tutorials Excel Basics
Making Excel Histograms
Making Scatter Plots
Exam Review Questions EXAM REVIEW 1. Which type of probability (empirical, classical, subjective) is each of the following?
QUESTIONS FOR a. On a given Friday, the probability that Flight 277 to Chicago is on time is 23.7%.
At the end of a group of chapters, CHAPTERS
doa37304_ch04_106-167.indd 160 5–7 b. Your chance of going to Disney World next year is 10%. 11/21/14 5:48 PM
c. The chance of rolling a 3 on two dice is 1y8.
students can review the mate- 2. For the following contingency table, find (a) P(H > T ); (b) P(S | G); (c) P(S)
rial they covered in those chap-
R S T Row Total
ters. This provides them with an G 10 50 30 90
doa37304_ch03_056-105.indd 104 11/21/14 5:37 PM
opportunity to test themselves on H 20 50 40 110
their grasp of the material. Col Total 30 100 70 200
3. If P(A) 5 .30, P(B) 5 .70, and P(A > B) 5 .25, are A and B independent events? Explain.
4. Which statement is false? Explain.
a. If P(A) 5 .05, then the odds against event A’s occurrence are 19 to 1.
b. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then P(A < B) 5 0.
c. The number of permutations of 5 things taken 2 at a time is 20.
5. Which statement is true? Why not the others?
a. The Poisson distribution has two parameters.
b. The binomial distribution assumes dependent random trials.
c. The uniform distribution has two parameters.
xi
McGraw-Hill’s Connect Business Statistics Features Connect Business Statistics offers a number of powerful tools and
features to make managing assignments easier, so faculty can spend more time teaching. With Connect Business Statistics,
students can engage with their coursework anytime and anywhere, making the learning process more accessible and effi-
cient. Connect Business Statistics offers you the features described below.
Simple Assignment Management With Connect Business Statistics, creating assignments is easier than ever, so you can
spend more time teaching and less time managing. The assignment management function enables you to:
• Create and deliver assignments easily with selectable end-of-chapter questions and test bank items.
• Streamline lesson planning, student progress reporting, and assignment grading to make classroom management more
efficient than ever.
• Go paperless with the eBook and online submission and grading of student assignments.
Smart Grading When it comes to studying, time is precious. Connect Business Statistics helps students learn more effi-
ciently by providing feedback and practice material when they need it, where they need it. When it comes to teaching, your
time also is precious. The grading function enables you to:
• Have assignments scored automatically, giving students immediate feedback on their work and side-by-side comparisons
with correct answers.
• Access and review each response; manually change grades or leave comments for students to review.
• Reinforce classroom concepts with practice tests and instant quizzes.
Excel Data Sets A convenient feature is the inclusion of an Excel data file link in many problems using data files in their
calculation. The link allows students to easily launch into Excel, work the problem, and return to Connect to key in the
answer.
xii
TO SUCCESS IN BUSINESS STATISTICS?
Guided Examples These narrated video walkthroughs provide students with step-by-step guidelines for solving selected
exercises similar to those contained in the text. The student is given personalized instruction on how to solve a problem by
applying the concepts presented in the chapter. The narrated voiceover shows the steps to take to work through an exercise.
Students can go through each example multiple times if needed.
Instructor Library The Connect Business Statistics Instructor Library is your repository for additional resources to improve
student engagement in and out of class. You can select and use any asset that enhances your lecture. The Connect Business
Statistics Instructor Library includes all of the instructor supplements for this text:
• Solutions Manual
• Test Bank
• PowerPoint Presentations
• Digital Image Library
Diagnostic and Adaptive Learning of Concepts: LearnSmart Students want to make the best use of their study time. The
LearnSmart adaptive self-study technology within Connect Business Statistics provides students with a seamless combina-
tion of practice, assessment, and remediation for every concept in the textbook. LearnSmart’s intelligent software adapts
xiii
to every student response and automatically delivers concepts that advance students’ understanding while reducing time
devoted to the concepts already mastered. The result for every student is the fastest path to mastery of the chapter concepts.
LearnSmart:
• Applies an intelligent concept engine to identify the relationships between concepts and to serve new concepts to each
student only when he or she is ready.
• Adapts automatically to each student, so students spend less time on the topics they understand and practice more those
they have yet to master.
• Provides continual reinforcement and remediation, but gives only as much guidance as students need.
• Integrates diagnostics as part of the learning experience.
• Enables you to assess which concepts students have efficiently learned on their own, thus freeing class time for more
applications and discussion.
Smartbook Smartbook is an extension of LearnSmart—an adaptive eBook that helps students focus their study time more
effectively. As students read, Smartbook assesses comprehension and dynamically highlights where they need to study more.
Student Progress Tracking Connect Business Statistics keeps instructors informed about how each student, section, and
class is performing, allowing for more productive use of lecture and office hours. The progress-tracking function enables
you to:
• View scored work immediately and track individual or group performance with assignment and grade reports.
• Access an instant view of student or class performance relative to learning objectives.
• Collect data and generate reports required by many accreditation organizations, such as AACSB.
For more information about Connect, go to connect.mheducation.com, or contact your local McGraw-Hill sales
representative.
xiv
WHAT RESOURCES ARE AVAILABLE FOR STUDENTS?
The following software tools are available to assist students in understanding concepts and solving problems.
LearningStats
LearningStats allows students to explore data and con-
cepts at their own pace. It includes demonstrations,
simulations, and tutorials that can be downloaded from
Connect.
Minitab®
Free trials and academic versions are available from Minitab at www.minitab.com.
CourseSmart
CourseSmart is a new way to find and buy eTextbooks. CourseSmart has the largest selection of eTextbooks available any-
where, offering thousands of the most commonly adopted textbooks from a wide variety of higher education publishers.
CourseSmart eTextbooks are available in one standard online reader with full text search, notes and highlighting, and e-mail
tools for sharing notes between classmates. Visit www.CourseSmart.com for more information on ordering.
xv
WHAT RESOURCES ARE AVAILABLE FOR INSTRUCTORS?
Online
McGraw-Hill Higher Education and Blackboard have teamed up. What does this mean for you?
1. Single sign-on. Now you and your students can access McGraw-Hill’s Connect™ and Create™ right from within your
Blackboard course—all with one single sign-on.
2. Integration of content and tools. You get a single sign-on with Connect™ and Create™, and you also get integration
of McGraw-Hill content and content engines right into Blackboard. Whether you’re choosing a book for your course or
building Connect™ assignments, all the tools you need are right where you want them—inside of Blackboard.
3. One grade book. Keeping several grade books and manually synchronizing grades into Blackboard is no longer neces-
sary. When a student completes an integrated Connect™ assignment, the grade for that assignment automatically (and
instantly) feeds your Blackboard grade center.
4. A solution for everyone. Whether your institution is already using Blackboard or you just want to try Blackboard on your
own, we have a solution for you. McGraw-Hill and Blackboard can now offer you easy access to industry-leading technol-
ogy and content, whether your campus hosts it, or we do. Be sure to ask your local McGraw-Hill representative for details.
xvi
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors would like to acknowledge some of the many people who have helped with this book. Thomas W. Lauer and Floyd
G. Willoughby permitted quotation of a case study. Morgan Elliott, Karl Majeske, Robin McCutcheon, Kevin Murphy, John
Sase, T. J. Wharton, and Kenneth M. York permitted questionnaires to be administered in their classes. Mark Isken, Ron Tracy,
and Robert Kushler gave generously of their time as expert statistical consultants. Jonathan G. Koomey of E.O. Lawrence
Berkeley National Laboratory offered valuable suggestions on visual data presentation.
Mark Isken has reliably provided Excel expertise and has suggested health care applications for examples and case stud-
ies. John Seeley and Jeff Whitbey provided regression databases. John Savio and the Michigan State Employees Credit
Union provided ATM data. The Siena Research Institute has made its poll results available. J.D. Power and Associates
generously provided permission to use vehicle quality data. The Public Interest Research Group of Michigan (PIRGIM) has
generously shared data from its field survey of prescription drug prices.
We owe special thanks to Aaron Kennedy and Dave Boennighausen of Noodles & Company, to Mark Gasta, Anja Wallace,
and Clifton Pacaro of Vail Resorts, to Jim Curtin and Gordon Backman of Ball Corporation, and to Santosh Lakhan from The
Verdeo Group for providing suggestions and access to data for mini cases and examples. For reviewing the material on quality,
we wish to thank Kay Beauregard, administrative director at William Beaumont Hospital, and Ellen Barnes and Karry Roberts
of Ford Motor Company. Amy Sheikh provided a new Facebook Friends data set, along with other excellent suggestions.
A special debt of gratitude is due to Michele Janicek for her direction and support and Christina Holt for coordinating
the project. Thanks to Lloyd Jasingh, Morehead State University, for updating the PowerPoint slides. Special thanks to the
accuracy checkers: Kevin Schaub and Christine Brooks, University of Colorado. Thanks to the many reviewers who pro-
vided such valuable feedback including criticism that made the book better, some of whom reviewed several drafts of the
manuscript. Any remaining errors or omissions are the authors’ responsibility. Thanks too, to the participants in our focus
groups and symposia on teaching business statistics, who have provided so many teaching ideas and insights into their par-
ticular students and courses. We hope you will be able to see in the book and the teaching package consideration of those
ideas and insights.
Sung Ahn, Washington State University Don Gren, Salt Lake City Community College John Pickett, University of Arkansas—
Mostafa Aminzadeh, Towson University Clifford Hawley, West Virginia University Little Rock
Scott Bailey, Troy University Natalie Hegwood, Sam Houston State University James Pokorski, Virginia Polytechnic Institute &
Hope Baker, Kennesaw State University Alam M. Imam, University of Northern Iowa State University
Saad Taha Bakir, Alabama State University Marc Isaacson, Augsburg College Stephan Pollard, California State University—
Katherine Broneck, Pima Community Kishen Iyengar, University of Colorado— Los Angeles
College—Downtown Boulder Tammy Prater, Alabama State University
Mary Beth Camp, Indiana Christopher Johnson, University of North Michael Racer, University of Memphis
University—Bloomington Florida Azar Raiszadeh, Chattanooga State Community
Alan Cannon, University of Texas—Arlington Jerzy Kamburowski, University of Toledo College
Deborah Carter, Coahoma Community College Bob Kitahara, Troy University Sue Schou, Idaho State University
Michael Cervetti, University of Memphis Drew Koch, James Madison University Sankara N. Sethuraman, Augusta
Alan Chesen, Wright State University Bob Lynch, University of Northern Colorado State University
Chia-Shin Chung, Cleveland State University Bradley McDonald, Northern Illinois Thomas R. Sexton, Stony Brook University
Joseph Coleman, Wright State University Murali Shanker, Kent State University
University—Dayton Richard McGowan, Boston College Gary W. Smith, Florida State University
Robert Cutshall, Texas A&M University— Kelly McKillop, University of Massachusetts Courtenay Stone, Ball State University
Corpus Christi Larry McRae, Appalachian State University Paul Swanson, Illinois Central College
Terry Dalton, University of Denver Robert Mee, University of Tennessee— Deborah Tesch, Xavier University
Douglas Dotterweich, East Tennessee Knoxville Dharma S. Thiruvaiyaru, Augusta
State University John Miller, Sam Houston State University State University
Michael Easley, University of New Orleans James E. Moran, Jr., Oregon State University Jesus M. Valencia, Slippery Rock University
Mark Farber, University of Miami Geraldine Moultine, Northwood University Rachel Webb, Portland State University
Soheila Kahkashan Fardanesh, Joshua Naranjo, Western Michigan University Simone A. Wegge, City University of New York
Towson University Anthony Narsing, Macon State College Alan Wheeler, University of Missouri—
Mark Ferris, St. Louis University Pin Ng, Northern Arizona University St. Louis
Stergios Fotopoulos, Washington Thomas Obremski, University of Denver Blake Whitten, University of Iowa
State University Mohammad Reza Oskoorouchi, California Charles Wilf, Duquesne University
Vickie Fry, Westmoreland County State University—San Marcos Janet Wolcutt, Wichita State University
Community College Mahour Mellat Parast, University of North Ye Zhang, Indiana University—Purdue
Joseph Fuhr, Widener University Carolina—Pembroke University Indianapolis
Bob Gillette, University of Kentucky Eddy Patuwo, Kent State University Mustafa R. Yilmaz, Northeastern University
xvii
ENHANCEMENTS FOR DOANE/
Many of the following changes were motivated by advice from reviewers and users of the textbook, with special focus on compatibility with Connect and
LearnSmart. Besides hundreds of small edits, six changes were common to all chapters:
• Revised learning objectives to match section content. • Updated Related Readings and Web Sources for students who want to
“dive deeper.”
• Improved alignment of section headings and key terms.
• Updated LearningStats demonstrations (McGraw-Hill Connect®
• Closer compatibility with Connect and LearnSmart. downloads) to illustrate concepts interactively.
Chapter 1—Overview of Statistics Two new practice exercises on standardized Revised learning objectives to better match
z-scores. testable terms and concepts.
New discussion of jobs for data scientists.
Two new practice exercises on quartiles and Improved graphic for GMAT sampling and
Improved organization of section on critical
fences. parameter vs. statistic.
thinking and fallacies.
Two new exercises using grouped data. Simplified discussion of properties of estima-
Updated Related Reading references.
Two new practice problems on descriptive tors and CLT illustrations.
Chapter 2—Data Collection statistics. Reorganized exercises on sampling error and
Revised presentation on variables, data types, Two new context exercises on describing data CLT.
and measurement levels. sets. Two new exercises on standard error and
Reorganized presentation of samples and Deleted four less-used exercises. proportion normality criterion.
populations. New decision diagram to guide student choice Deleted two older exercises.
Improved visuals on sampling from a popula- of statistics and visual displays. Improved discussion of finite population correction.
tion with unknown parameters. Four updated real data sets for Excel analysis. Replaced two end-of-chapter exercises with
Revised section on sampling methods. better ones.
Chapter 5—Probability
Exercises: five new, five deleted, five revised. Updated Related Reading references.
Four new practice exercises on independence.
Updated Related Reading references.
Replaced MiniCase 5.1 with new MiniCase on Chapter 9—One-Sample Hypothesis Tests
Two new LearningStats demos.
women-owned companies. Reorganized with two new sections (Type I and
Chapter 3—Describing Data Visually Replaced MiniCase 5.3 with new MiniCase Type II error, decision rules).
Learning objectives broken down to give more decision analysis using Bayes’ Theorem. Improved explanations and visuals for p-values
control by topic. and z-values.
Chapter 6—Discrete Probability Distributions
Revised discussion on binning in frequency Two new exercises on hypothesis formulation
Revised expected value and variance topics and and testing.
distributions.
moved them to a stand-alone section. Three new LearningStats demonstrations.
Twelve new screen shots and guidance for
Revised learning objectives to match testable
Excel 2013 charts, histograms, and pivot tables.
topics more closely. Chapter 10—Two-Sample Hypothesis Tests
Four new screen shots and step-by-step guid-
Four new exercises using CDF, PDF, and Simplified learning objectives to match content
ance for scatter plots.
expected value. more closely.
New screen shots for using Minitab 16 and
Deleted four less-used exercises. Improved notation for tests of two proportions
MegaStat 2013.
Reworded exercises to focus more precisely on and F-tests.
Clarification of column vs. bar chart terminol-
testable topics. Replaced fire truck example (new example on
ogy in Excel.
One new LearningStats actuarial example on reducing hospital cost).
Four updated exercises (transplants, housing
life expectancy. Revised five exercises to improve focus and
starts, lightning deaths, school spending).
Connect compatibility.
Deleted two less-used exercises. Chapter 7—Continuous Probability Replaced one exercise with an “A/B split-testing”
Updated Related Reading references. Distributions proportion exercise.
Revised learning objectives to match topics Added four new end-of-chapter exercises,
Chapter 4—Descriptive Statistics
more closely. including two paired t tests.
New Excel 2013 screen shots for car defects New tip on usage of , versus # notation in
examples and calculations. Chapter 11—Analysis of Variance
continuous probability events.
Updated MegaStat 2013 screen shots and Improved notation and illustrations for one-
Modest updating of exercises.
instructions. factor ANOVA.
Improved graphs and visual displays. Chapter 8—Sampling Distributions and Improved notation and presentation of Tukey’s
Six new practice exercise data sets on central Estimation test.
tendency. Reorganization of sections on CLT, sampling Streamlined discussion of two-factor ANOVA.
Two new practice exercises on variation. error, and estimation. Improved graphics and screen shots.
xviii
SEWARD ASBE 5E
Chapter 12—Simple Regression Chapter 14—Time Series Analysis Added two new LearningStats demonstrations
on chi-square tests.
Reorganized learning objectives to focus more Simplified exponential smoothing discussion.
sharply on testable concepts. New LearningStats demonstration on exponen- Chapter 16—Nonparametric Tests
Updated several data sets. tial smoothing weights.
Modified the restaurant quality illustration of
Simplified exposition and improved graphics, Updated Related Reading references. the Mann-Whitney/Wilcoxon test.
labels, and “Tip” headings.
Replaced two data sets with new ones (home Clarified the two alternative methods for Mann-
Chapter 15—Chi-Square Tests Whitney/Wilcoxon test.
values, 2014 vehicle MPG).
Added a new LearningStats demonstration Reorganized learning objectives to better align Updated several exercises and Related
(confidence intervals simulation). with concepts and with Connect. Readings.
Improved discussion of chi-square tests using Chapter 17—Quality Management
Chapter 13—Multiple Regression
built-in Excel functions.
Minor edits and improved “Tip” headings. Modified learning objectives to permit more
Replaced two contingency table exercises. precise testing of terms and concepts.
Substantially increased coverage of logistic
regression, with sample printouts. Streamlined discussion of Poisson and normal Updated Related Reading references.
GOF tests.
New multiple regression data set (2014 vehicle
MPG with several predictors). Simplified five contingency table exercises to Chapter 18—Simulation
One new logistic regression exercise data set. sharpen the focus on key concepts. No changes.
Updated Related Reading references. Deleted two Poisson mini-projects.
xix
BRIEF CONTENTS
CHAPTER ONE CHAPTER FOURTEEN
Overview of Statistics 2 Time-Series Analysis 600
CHAPTER THIRTEEN
Multiple Regression 544
xx
CONTENTS
CHAPTER ONE CHAPTER FIVE
Overview of Statistics 2 Probability 168
1.1 What Is Statistics? 3 5.1 Random Experiments 169
1.2 Why Study Statistics? 6 5.2 Probability 171
1.3 Statistics in Business 7 5.3 Rules of Probability 175
1.4 Statistical Challenges 10 5.4 Independent Events 180
1.5 Critical Thinking 15 5.5 Contingency Tables 184
Chapter Summary 17 5.6 Tree Diagrams 192
Chapter Exercises 18 5.7 Bayes’ Theorem 194
5.8 Counting Rules 200
CHAPTER TWO Chapter Summary 204
Data Collection 22 Chapter Exercises 205
1 Overview
of Statistics
CHAPTER CONTENTS
CHAPTER LEARNING
OBJECTIVES
LO 1-4 State the common challenges facing business professionals using statistics.
2
Prelude
hen managers are well informed about a company’s internal opera-
Plural or Singular?
Statistics The science of collecting, organizing, analyzing, interpreting, and presenting
data.
Statistic A single measure, reported as a number, used to summarize a sample data set.
Many different measures can be used to summarize data sets. You will learn throughout this
textbook that there can be different measures for different sets of data and different measures for
different types of questions about the same data set. Consider, for example, a sample data set that
consists of heights of students in a university. There could be many different uses for this data
set. Perhaps the manufacturer of graduation gowns wants to know how long to make the gowns;
the best statistic for this would be the average height of the students. But an architect designing
a classroom building would want to know how high the doorways should be, and would base
measurements on the maximum height of the students. Both the average and the maximum are
examples of a statistic.
You may not have a trained statistician in your organization, but any college graduate is
expected to know something about statistics, and anyone who creates graphs or interprets data
is “doing statistics” without an official title.
There are two primary kinds of statistics:
• Descriptive statistics refers to the collection, organization, presentation, and summary of
data (either using charts and graphs or using a numerical summary).
• Inferential statistics refers to generalizing from a sample to a population, estimating
unknown population parameters, drawing conclusions, and making decisions.
Figure 1.1 identifies the tasks and the text chapters for each.
FIGURE 1.1
Overview of Statistics
Statistics
Terwijl het in de vertellingen der negers van Sierra Leone (Cr.) en van
de Goudkust (Ba.), waar de Tshi-taal gesproken wordt, doorgaans de
spin is, hier Mr. Spider genoemd, over wiens heldendaden verteld
wordt, bij de Yoruba’s van de oostelijke deelen der Slavenkust en bij de
Bantoe-stammen van Aequatoriaal West-Afrika daarentegen de
schildpad, die als Trorkey of Mr. Turtle ook in vele Sierra Leone-
vertellingen optreedt, hebben de negers van Zuid-Afrika als nationale
held een dier, dat zij Cunnie 36 Rabbit noemen en dat ook herhaaldelijk
in de verhalen de Goudkust-negers optreedt.
Dat sluwheid het meestal boven kracht wint, hiervan is de neger overal
in Afrika doordrongen (zie o.a. in „Avond op het water”, Bijvoegsel II).
Wij treffen deze waarheid ook aan in de reeds aangehaalde
vertellingen, door inboorlingen aan Stanley gedaan (zie blz. 203), en
waarin nu eens door een aardig bedrog of sluwe krijgslist de loeiende
buffel het onderspit moest delven voor het scherpe vernuft van het
konijntje, dan weêr de hond het won van zijn forschen meester, het
luipaard.
Welk een belangrijke plaats de vertellingen in het leven van den West-
Afrikaanschen neger innemen, blijkt wel uit de slotregels eener
pakkende vertelling in het belangwekkende werkje van Florence
Cronise en Henry Ward—niet alleen voor Sierra Leone, doch ook
voor [233]het verder oostwaarts liggende gebied (Ivoorkust, Goudkust en
Slavenkust) geldend.—„Bijna den ganschen nacht was met vertellen in
een der hutten doorgebracht en nog waren sommigen wakker genoeg,
om naar meer te verlangen. Sorpee was juist bezig, om zich voor te
bereiden voor een volgende vertelling, toen allen een vogel hoorden
schreeuwen. „Dah fowl craze”, 39 riep Oleemah uit, die juist zijn vertelling
geëindigd had, en niet kunnende gelooven, dat de morgen reeds
aanbrak, stond hij op, om zijn hoofd buiten de hut te steken.
„Nar true word dah fowl duh talk”, 40 zei hij, toen hij de eerste teekenen
van den naderenden dag had gezien. De wolken hingen zwaar, de
regen had opgehouden, en de dampen begonnen op te trekken”.
„Oleemah, door deze teekenen er aan herinnerd, dat het leven niet
uitsluitend verdichtsel 41 is, liep naar buiten en begaf zich naar zijn hut.
En, toen hij het sein aan de anderen had gegeven, om op te staan en
huiswaarts te keeren, voelde iedereen, dat de nacht goed besteed was
geweest”.
Suriname.
Anansi,
1. die een half dorp verovert.
Spin 2.
en de prinses.
Het huwelijk
3. van Heer Spin.
Anansi,
4. Tijger en de doode koe.
Anansi
5. en zijn kinderen.
Hoe Spin
6. zijn schuldeischers betaalt.
Een feest
7. bij de Waternimf.
Spin 8.
en kat.
Spin 9.
en krekel.
Heer10.
Spin als Geestelijke.
Heer11.
Spin als roeier.
Spin12.
neemt Tijger gevangen.
Heer13.
Spin en Hond.
Tijger’s
14. verjaardag.
Spin15.
voert de Dood in.
Spin16.
wedt, Tijger te berijden.
Verhaal
17. uit het leven van vriend Spin.[236]
Anansi
18. als Amerikaan verkleed.
Heer19.
Spin en de Waternimf.
Anansi,
20. Hert en Kikvorsch.
Heer
21.Spin als landbouwer.
Anansi
22. en de Bliksem.
Ieder
23.volwassen man moet een rood zitvlak hebben.
Hoe24.
Anansi aan schapenvleesch wist te komen.
De geschiedenis
25. van Fini Foetoe, Bigi bere en Bigi hede.
Legende
26. van Leisah I.
27. II.
,, ,, ,,
Verhaal
28. van het land van „Moeder Soemba”.
Boen29.no habi tangi, of: ondank is ’s werelds loon.
Geschiedenis
30. van Kopro Kanon.
De Meermin
31. of Watra-mama.
De Boa
32. in de gedaante van een schoonen jongeling.
Het 33.
huwelijk van Aap.
Hoe Heer
1. Spin, door zijn bekwaamheid als geneesheer,
de mooie dochter van den landvoogd wist te krijgen.
(Cuenta di nansi).
[237]
Jamaicaansche neger-vertellingen. 46
(Annancy-stories).
Annancy
1. in Krabbenland (met muziek).
Reiger
2. (met muziek).
Annancy,
3. Poes en Rat (met muziek).
[Inhoud]
Vreemd mag het daarom schijnen, dat Anansi in No. 22, getiteld:
„Heer Spin en de Bliksem”, met zijn gansche familie vernietigd wordt.
Welk dier de Surinaamsche neger op het oog heeft, als hij vertelt
van de slimme streken van „het konijn”, is moeilijk te zeggen. Is dit
nog dezelfde „cunnie 54 Rabbit”, waarover de inboorlingen van West-
Afrika zoo gaarne opsnijden, en waarmede, zooals reeds werd
opgemerkt 55, het dwergmuskusdier*, Hyomoschus aquaticus
bedoeld wordt, een dier, dat in Suriname niet voorkomt, of is hiervoor
in de plaats getreden de Agoeti*, door de Surinaamsche negers koni
koni genoemd?
Het is duidelijk, dat waar de negers zich vrij gemakkelijk naar hunne
nieuwe omgeving weten te schikken en er steeds behagen in
scheppen, over zaken en toestanden te redeneeren en
philosopheeren, de Europeesche invloed in hunne vertellingen zich
meer en meer heeft doen gevoelen. Deze invloed moet reeds
uitgegaan zijn van de eerste kolonisten, meer in het bijzonder van
hunne kinderen, die de slaven ook met hunne sprookjes bekend
wilden maken; en later, toen de slavernij werd afgeschaft en er een
intiemere verhouding tusschen negers en blanken [242]ontstond,
moet de Europeesche invloed in de negervertellingen steeds meer
op den voorgrond getreden zijn.
Zoo vindt de lezer in het reeds genoemde verhaal: „Uit het leven van
vriend Spin” zelfs de herinnering aan Napoleon 56 en aan den slag bij
Quatrebras in 1815 bewaard, en in No. 18, getiteld: „De Spin als
Amerikaan verkleed” vindt hij een uiting van den haat der negers
tegen Amerikanen, die in den laatsten tijd ten behoeve der goud-
exploitatie en andere ontginningen van delfstoffen herhaaldelijk de
kolonie bezoeken, terwijl wij in de vertelling No. 21, getiteld: „Heer
Spin als landbouwer” zelfs melding gemaakt vinden van het uitgeven
van perceelen tot uitbreiding van den kleinen landbouw, waarmede
eerst geruimen tijd na de opheffing der slavernij een aanvang is
gemaakt.
Belangrijk zou het zijn, uit een veel grooter aantal vertellingen, dan
waarover tot nu toe beschikt kan worden, aanknoopingspunten te
zoeken met de vertellingen van de negers van West-Afrika. Hier mag
de aandacht gevestigd worden op de groote overeenkomst van No.
16, „Spin wedt Tijger te berijden” met „Mr. Turtle makes a riding-
horse of Mr. Leopard” uit de verzameling van Miss Cronise; op de
merkwaardige overeenkomst van het „Verhaal uit het leven van
Vriend Spin” (No. 17) met „Spider, Elephan’ en Pawpawtamus” van
denzelfden oorsprong (Zie Bijvoegsel II „Avond op het water in
Sierra Leone”), doch met dit verschil, dat het nijlpaard in Suriname
vervangen is door „de walvisch, de grootste visch (?) van de
Spaansche groene zee”; op „No. 4, Anansi, [244]Tijger en de doode
Koe”, die een variant is op „Mr. Spider pulls a supply of beef” in de
verzameling van Miss Cronise en eindelijk op het voorkomen ook in
onze verzameling van een bekende verschijning in de mondelinge
litteratuur der negers, nl. de teerpop (No. 9, „Spin en de Krekel”) die
wij in de bekende Uncle Remus serie, in Noord Amerika verzameld,
als de „Tar Baby” aantreffen en in de verzameling uit Sierra Leone
van Miss Cronise als „the Wax Girl” weêrvinden. Ook de oorzaak
van den eigenaardigen lichaamsbouw der spin vinden wij in een der
vertellingen van den door Miss Cronise bijeengebrachten bundel
vermeld, nl. in de vertelling „Why Mr. Spider’s waist is small”, terwijl
er ten slotte nog de aandacht op gevestigd wordt, dat een aantal
vertellingen der Surinaamsche negers, evenals die van de negers
der Goudkust en van Sierra Leone, van een hongersnood verhalen,
die onder de dieren was uitgebroken. (Zie: „Spin, Olifant en
Hippopotamus” in Bijvoegsel II). Daar de neger in weinige landen
zóó gemakkelijk aan den kost kan komen als in Suriname en daar er
dus wel nimmer voor hem van hongersnood sprake zal zijn geweest,
blijkt hier wederom eene herinnering aan Afrika, waar tijden van
groote voedselschaarschte herhaaldelijk voorkomen, niet alleen door
veelvuldige oorlogen (in vroegere tijden) en vernieling door branden,
doch ook door langdurige droogte en door gemis aan de noodige
zorg voor de toekomst bij den aanplant van een voldoende
hoeveelheid rijst.
De litteratuur van een volk mag de beste uiting van diens zieleleven
worden genoemd en daar de mondelinge litteratuur van den
Surinaamschen neger nog weinig bekend is, en bij eene
beoordeeling van de zwarte bevolking onzer kolonie de slechte
eigenschappen doorgaans breed worden uitgemeten en van de vele
goede karaktereigenschappen dikwijls gezwegen wordt 59, heb ik
gemeend [246]een goed werk te doen, om in de laatste mijner
bijdragen tot de kennis van Suriname, die een uitvloeisel zijn van
mijn reis in 1900, de aandacht te vestigen op de belangrijke neger-
folklore, die evenals zoo veel oorspronkelijks bij de natuurvolken,
bezig is te verdwijnen.
[Inhoud]
„Je weet toch, dat anansi-tori’s niet ieder oogenblik mogen verteld
worden en vooral niet als het dag is; hij die er zich niet aan houdt,
moet zich een ooghaar uittrekken”. 62
„Máss’ra, joe a no wan pikíen, joe kánkan Sranam krioro, en joe sabi
srefi sani anansi-tori wanni taki”. 64
„Arnitri”. 65
Ik vroeg hem daarop, om welke reden men geen anansi-tori’s bij dag
wil vertellen en waarom, als er gevraagd wordt „vertel een anansi-
tori”, men steeds ten antwoord krijgt „mi no sabi” 66.
„Ja, maar ik word door jelui uitgelachen, en jelui denkt, dat ik lieg;
om U de waarheid te zeggen, anansi-tori’s zijn dingen, die niet maar
zoo besproken worden en die in een sterfhuis thuis hooren, niet bij
ons op dit oogenblik.