NFO Presentation - HDFC Manufacturing Fund - Apr'2 - 240422 - 142330
NFO Presentation - HDFC Manufacturing Fund - Apr'2 - 240422 - 142330
NFO Presentation - HDFC Manufacturing Fund - Apr'2 - 240422 - 142330
FY23 FY30E
Nominal GDP 3,353 2X 7,000
Manufacturing GVA 453 2.8X 1,281
Overall exports 778 2X 1,552
Merchandise exports 453 2.6X 1,198
Overall capex, GCF 1,080 2X 2,112
The information herein is based on expectations and the actual results could vary materially. This is not indicating returns
from any investments. There is no assurance as regards performance of any company, sector or investment.
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Manufacturing adds ~4x more value vs. Agriculture… .....Explaining China’s journey from Low to upper
Level of labour productivity (during 2008-17), Rs '000
middle income
50
350 332 45 India
297
Share of Agriculture in
40
India’s merchandise import (Excl. Oil & Gold) has been increasing
INR has depreciated 3.3% against USD (10Y CAGR) and median inflation has been ~5.2%
Vietnam and China, with high manufacturing exports, have current account surpluses;
leading them to enjoy much lower currency depreciation* and hence lower inflation
Growth in consumption without commensurate Current Account being in control is key for
manufacturing growth leading to higher trade deficit macroeconomic resilience
-120
Non-Oil Non-Gold Trade Deficit, USD mn -103 -99
-100
10Y Median China Vietnam India
-80
-54 -60
-50 -44 -44 Median Inflation (%) 1.9 3.2 5.2
-39 -38
-32 -31 -40
-22 -25 -25 -23 Current account balance (US$ bn) 236.0 5.8 -32.0
-10 -20
-3 -4 -7
0 CAB as % of GDP 1.7 1.9 -1.2
9 6
20
Currency Depreciation* (%) 1.5 1.4 3.3
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
FY2018
FY2019
FY2020
FY2022
FY2023
FYTD2024
*against USD
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National Logistics Policy - Rank improved from 54 (in 2014) to 38 (in 2023) in
High logistics costs
Road and Rail infrastructure World Bank's Logistics Performance Index
Investments in roads, power Road construction 3 kms per day in 2013 to 30 kms
Poor infrastructure
and railways per day in 2023, 4901 km expressways(FY23), DFC, etc.
Complex labour laws Introduction of labour code Consolidation of 44 laws into 4 codes
Unfavourable FTAs Non-Tariff barriers BIS quality certification, import licenses, etc.
India is Fastest Growing Consumer Market ..providing sufficient scale to support local manufacturing
Trend in Consumption % India Share in World (Ex China) x India’s Rank in the World (Ex China) demand
90%
The size of the bubble is Smart Phone Room ACs Fully Automatic Referigerators Cars
80% Philippines consumption in US$bn Washing Machine
US
12% 12%
Consumption, % of GDP
70% 5% 5%
11%
60% India
Malaysia Vietnam
50% 7%
Indonesia 14.6 8.5 2% 3.5 2% 13.7
4.78
40% 4% 5%
China 7.2 3.15
1.6
30% Singapore 4.4 3.3
20% CY13 CY23 CY13 CY23 CY13 CY23 CY13 CY23 CY13 CY23
3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 6 1 5 2 10 4 10 4 6 3
Consumption, YoY% 5 yr avg (nominal)
Volumes (million units)
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The shift away from China has accelerated post Covid pandemic
China’s share in US Goods imports has declined from 21% in 2018 to 13% in 2023
India, Vietnam, Taiwan and Thailand have seen rising Manufacturing a product in India is on an average 15%
share in US Goods imports cheaper relative to US, and should lead to increasing
exports over time
Source: Bloomberg, U.S. International Trade Commission Source: BCG Analysis, Sep 2023
China** includes US Code §301 tariffs on Chinese imports chart displays
maximum value of 25%.
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India’s merchandise export market share to increase from 1.8% to 3.5% by 2031 implying CAGR of ~11%
Merchandise exports is expected to grow faster than services
1991
2001
2011
2021
2022
2031E
1991
2001
2011
2021
2022
2031E
1991
2001
2011
2021
2022
2031E
0
1991 2001 2011 2021 2022 2031E
The information herein is based on expectations and the actual results could vary materially.
This is not indicating returns from any investments. There is no assurance as
regards performance of any company, sector or investment.
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India to become the largest pool of Labor supply…. ...with lowest labour cost globally
Addition in 30-60 age cohorts by 2045 Average Monthly Earnings of Employees in Manufacturing Sector
US$
200 (mn people) 6000
152
150 5058
Increase/Decrease in age (30-60) population by 2045 5000
100
50 4000 3644 3549 3467
13 3 2 1 1
0 3000 2687
-3 -4 -11
-50 2000
-45
-100 1000
1000 605 458
-150 -119 323 278 198 189
0
India
US
Brazil
Australia
Viet Nam
UK
Taiwan
Thailand
Japan
Europe
China
US
Singapore
Korea
UK
Japan
China
Malaysia
Thailand
Vietnam
Philippines
India
Indonesia
Source: UN, Jefferies Source: ILO, UBS
Country Labour cost ($ per hour) Working Age population STEM graduates English speaking graduates
India's Rank 2 1 1 1
Notes: Countries considered for this exercise: China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand
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The information herein is based on expectations and the actual results could vary materially. This is not indicating returns from
any investments. There is no assurance as regards to performance of any company, sector or investment. 02
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Production cost per unit to manufacture a Fan Cost benefit for India vs Peer Manufacturing Nations
China vs India
US$ Cost assuming Total Production per year - 8,254,615 Estimated Cost for producing a fan in US$
China India
13 12.5
Cost of Goods Sold 4.25 4.67 12
Labour cost 0.83 0.34 11
10 9.6
Other cost (electricity and depreciation) 0.03 0.03
9 8.7
Annual Production costs per unit 5.12 5.03
8
7.1 7 6.9 6.9
7 6.7
Freight cost (assuming 50/50 revenue split EU/US) 1.88 1.67 6
5
US Korea Poland Thailand China Indonesia Vietnam India
Average cost (assuming 50/50 revenue split EU/US) 7.00 6.70
Lower labour cost is already helping India become As scale increases, India could see further
lowest cost producer cost advantages
1.76x in 2023 vs. 2014 2.5x Electrified in last 10y 2x in last 10y 2.5x in 2023 vs 2015,
(1,535 vs. 871 MTPA) (85% vs. 33%) (1.5 lakh km highway network) Target 500 GW by 2030
Average TAT improved DFC – Rail has increased Road avg kms/truck/day Peak power shortage of 17%
from ~82hrs (FY17) to from 72hrs (FY18) to 24hrs increased from 190 (FY15) (FY13) to almost NIL (FY23)
48hrs (FY23) (FY23) to 250 (FY23)
India has significant presence in the services segment of the high value manufacturing supply chain
Advanced manufacturing is also on the horizon underpinned by high-end service economy
20% of global chip design engineers are in India
Qualcomm- one of the largest chip supplier has 35% of its employees in India designing high end chips
Possible to leverage this More large-scale investments in foundries Indian production expected to grow 3x and
talent pool and OSAT are likely to be announced exports by 8x in next 4-5 years
OSAT: Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test, PCBA: Printed Circuit Board Assembly, ODM: Original Design Manufacturer, IC Chips: Integrated Circuit Chips
Source: PIB
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Snapshot of PLI schemes and their impact Base Corporate Tax Rate in Asian Economies Indian Defence production could grow
4x by 2030
Sri Lanka
Bangaldesh
China
Indonesia
Korea
Malaysia
Japan
India
Cambodia
Taiwan
Thailand
Veitnam
Singapore
India*
Philippines
Key Sectors - Large-scale electronics 10 11 10
manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, telecom 1 2
and networking products, food processing
FY20 FY23 FY30
and white goods.
Source: Morgan Stanley, PIB Source: World Bank, Morgan Stanley Research Source: IBEF, Invest India, Expert Interviews, BCG Analysis
* for new manufacturing companies with operations
commencing before Mar-24
0.6 70
0.4 65
0.2 60
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Sep-15
Mar-16
Sep-16
Mar-17
Sep-17
Mar-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-19
Mar-20
Sep-20
Mar-21
Sep-21
Mar-22
Sep-22
Mar-23
Sep-23
0.0
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24e
Capacity Utilisation (Tr-4Q moving average)
Source: Jefferies
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Share of Manufacturing Sector in New Company Manufacturing FDI (3 year rolling avg) (US$bn)
Registrations
30% 17
15.0 15.3
28%
28% 15
13.7 13.7
13.0 13.0 13.0 12.7
13 12.3 12.3
26%
10.3 10.7
24% 11
22%
22% 8.3
21% 9 8.0
20% 7
18% 5
2015 2018 2022 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Source: CMIE
Source: Jefferies
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Mobile phones were a large import item with import mix of 78%
Over time local manufacturing ecosystem developed supported by PLI
Value of production has increased ~7x and exports by 60x since FY16
India’s rank in global mobile phone exports has improved from 178 in FY16 to 5 in FY23
Production in India (INR bn) Exports from India (INR bn) Imports as a % of Total Market Value
1,000 900 100%
4,000
3,500
800 78%
80%
3,000 2,750
600
2,200 450 56%
2,140 60%
2,000 1,810 400
272 229
1,320 40% 30%
900 200 114
1,000 15 11 14 19%
540 20%
-
189 6% 4% 8% 5% 4%
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
-
FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 0%
Exports FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Rank: 178 239 19 19 8 9 9 5
Source: JM Financial
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iPhone Production ramping up in India Samsung led a large push in exports from Vietnam, and
today accounts for >US$65bn of goods exports
Year Models Global Shipment Share (%) US$ bn Samsung's Vietnam subsidiaries' exports, US$ bn
70 as % of Vietnam's merchandise exports, RHS 66 30%
2017 iPhone SE (1st Gen) <1%
60 25%
2018 iPhone 6S <1%
50
20%
2019 iPhone 7 & XR ~1% 40
15%
2020 iPhone 11, SE ( 2nd Gen) <2% 30
10%
20
2021 iPhone 12 3%
10 5%
2022 iPhone 13 & 14 7%
0 0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023 iPhone 15 10%
Source: Apple, Ministry of Commerce, Jefferies Source: UBS Research, Department of Vietnam Customs
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Did you know? Indian pharma manufacturing has been a major success
India is now the one of the largest manufacturer of 3Ws story, with formulations and biologicals exports growing
and tractors (first), two-wheelers (second), heavy trucks at 8% CAGR vs 5% for the global market
(third), and cars (fourth) in the world and is a significant
Indian companies have gained large share in generics
producer of auto parts
segment in the US
India Auto Parts Trade Balance has improved US Generics Volume Share by Country %
Net Exports (USD bn)
100%
1.0 0.7
0.5 80%
- 60%
(0.5) (0.2) 32% 34% 42% 45% 45% 46% 48%
(0.5) 40%
(1.0)
(0.9) 20%
(1.5)
(2.0) 0%
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
(2.5)
(2.5) (2.5)
(3.0)
US India EU Others
FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023
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Value of imports for AC and its components Toys exports have started to increase EMS Industry could mimic this success
has nearly halved, and Import content per gradually & imports are declining fast story, with expectations of 25% CAGR
unit has declined by ~60% in exports
Import Value ($mn) India's Toys and Gaming Trade ($mn) 30 47.8%
40.0%
1,400 1,329 250 400 372 24.9%
234 25
20.0%
1,200 344 10.6%
204 200 350 327 326 19.40
Finished AC + Components Import Content/AC Exports Imports FY22 FY27E 5 year CAGR
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US$ mn
1,200
1,003
600 1,000 891
400 800
200 600
- 400
CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20 CY21 CY22 CY23 2,018 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022
Total Export
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Core of the portfolio Stock selection will be Reasonably well Flexible across market
(at least 80%) will be based on bottom-up diversified portfolio capitalisation
invested in stocks that research ideas which are
represent the diverse expected to have long
sectors of manufacturing runway for growth
HDFC Mutual Fund / AMC is not guaranteeing returns on investments made in the scheme.
The current investment strategy is subject to change depending on the market conditions.
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Manufacturing covers ~37% of the overall market cap, and is well diversified amongst sectors and market capitalisation
Since Inception 15.6% 14.9% 14.7% 21.4% 20.7% 21.4% 0.73 0.72 0.69
15 years 18.4% 16.9% 15.6% 18.6% 17.5% 18.0% 0.99 0.97 0.87
10 years 16.2% 15.8% 14.2% 17.5% 16.2% 16.5% 0.93 0.97 0.86
5 years 21.2% 17.2% 15.3% 18.9% 18.4% 19.0% 1.12 0.93 0.80
3 years 25.4% 19.3% 16.3% 14.7% 13.8% 13.7% 1.73 1.40 1.20
1 year 55.0% 40.5% 30.1% 10.9% 10.0% 9.7% 5.03 4.03 3.11
NIFTY India Manufacturing Index has outperformed broader Indian Equity Markets in the long term
Risks Mitigants
Slowdown in domestic and/or global With India emerging as the largest source of cost
growth could impact revenue and effective labor supply its manufacturing value
profit growth proposition should allow it to be able to grow faster
than rest of the world
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Governments' push for self-reliance (Atmanirbhar Bharat) by way
of reforms and incentives
Supportive macroeconomic environment with rising capex, low leverage
and high levels of capacity utilisation
Emergence of India as the largest pool of cost-effective labor supply
Global realignment of supply chains
High value-add manufacturing should accelerate, supported by
dominance of a strong high end service economy
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Rakesh Sethia is a Fund Manager and Senior Equity Analyst and has collectively over 19 years of
experience, of which 17 years in Equity research and 2 years in other corporate roles. In the
current role, he covers Energy, Telecom, Logistics and Transportation and Consumer durables.
He joined HDFC Asset Management Company Ltd in May-2020. Prior to that, he worked and 11
years at Morgan Stanley group and 2 years in HSBC Securities and Capital Markets where he was
leading equity research of Oil & Gas and telecom sectors.
Rakesh has done MBA in Finance from NMIMS, Mumbai in 2007. Rakesh is also a CFA Charterholder
and certified FRM
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Investment Objective To provide long-term capital appreciation by investing predominantly in equity and equity related securities of companies engaged in the
manufacturing activity. There is no assurance that the investment objective of the Scheme will be realized.
• Direct Plan
Investment Plans
• Regular Plan
Investment Options Under Each Plan: Growth, Income Distribution cum Capital Withdrawal – Payout and Reinvestment of IDCW
For further details, refer Scheme Information Document and Key Information Memorandum and addenda thereto available on www.hdfcfund.com and at Investor
Service Centres of HDFC Mutual Fund.
$Dedicated fund manager for overseas investments Mr. Dhruv Muchhal
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Under normal circumstances, the asset allocation (% of Net Assets) of the Scheme's portfolio will be as follows
@ The Scheme may invest in the schemes of Mutual Funds in accordance with the applicable extant SEBI (Mutual Funds) Regulations as amended from time to time.
* including securitised debt, other structured obligations (SO), credit enhanced debt (CE), debt instruments with special features such as subordination to equity
(absorbs losses before equity capital) and /or convertible to equity upon trigger of a prespecified event for loss absorption (also referred to as “perpetual debt instruments”).
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The Scheme being thematic in nature carries higher risks versus diversified equity mutual funds on account of concentration and
sector specific risks.
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The views expressed herein are as of 8th April, 2024 and are based on internal data, publicly available information and other sources believed
to be reliable. Any calculations made are approximations, meant as guidelines only, which you must confirm before relying on them. The
information contained in this document is for general purposes only and not an investment advice. The document is given in summary form
and does not purport to be complete. The document does not have regard to specific investment objectives, financial situation and the
particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. The information/ data herein alone are not sufficient and should not
be used for the development or implementation of an investment strategy. The statements contained herein are based on our current views
and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from
those expressed or implied in such statements. Stocks/Sectors referred are illustrative and should not be construed as an investment advice
or a research report or a recommendation by HDFC Mutual Fund (“the Fund”) / HDFC AMC to buy or sell the stock or any other security covered
under the respective sector/s. The Fund may or may not have any present or future positions in these sectors. Past performance may or may
not be sustained in future and is not a guarantee of any future returns. HDFC AMC / HDFC Mutual Fund is not guaranteeing / offering /
communicating any indicative yield on investments made in the scheme(s). Neither HDFC AMC and HDFC Mutual Fund (the Fund) nor any
person connected with them, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient(s) before acting on any information
herein should make his/her/their own investigation and seek appropriate professional advice and shall alone be fully responsible / liable
for any decision taken on the basis of information contained herein.
MUTUAL FUND INVESTMENTS ARE SUBJECT TO MARKET RISKS, READ ALL SCHEME RELATED DOCUMENTS CAREFULLY.
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