Public Health Nutrition: 23(17), 3116–3120 doi:10.

1017/S136898002000316X

Commentary

How will the COVID-19 pandemic shape the future of meat

consumption?
Sophie Attwood1 and Cother Hajat2,*
1 2
Independent Scholar: Public Health Institute, UAEU, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates

Submitted 12 June 2020: Final revision received 6 August 2020: Accepted 10 August 2020: First published online 12 August 2020

Abstract
Since its recent onset, the COVID-19 pandemic has altered the daily lives of mil-
lions around the world. One area particularly affected is our diets, with food supply
chain disruptions, media coverage of food safety issues and restaurant closures all
influencing consumer dietary behaviour. Given this situation, we pose a timely
question – what is the impact of the current pandemic on longer-term meat con-
sumption patterns? This issue is pertinent given accumulating evidence that over-
consumption of meat, particularly red meat, is associated with negative
environmental and health outcomes. Here, we discuss how the current pandemic
has already begun to shift public awareness of illnesses linked to animals and has
resulted in short-term changes in patterns of meat consumption. Past zoonotic out-
breaks, such as SARS and swine flu, are also referred to, and we find that these led
to similar short-term reductions in meat intake, a shift in the type of meat chosen
and longer-lasting impacts on consumer perceptions of the health risks associated Keywords
with meat. We conclude that, if immediate changes in eating patterns as a result of Nutrition
COVID-19 are retained in the longer term, one possible opportunity to emerge Sustainability
from the current pandemic may be a shift away from overconsumption of meat, Diet
leading to potential health and environmental benefits in the longer term. COVID-19

Zoonosis and animal-based foods involves experts across a range of sectors working together
to promote better public health by focusing on risks that,
The term ‘Zoonosis’ entered our common vocabularies in just like COVID-19, lie at the intersection of human and
2020 with onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Until this year, animal health and the environment(3).
the notion that infectious diseases could originate from ani- However, it is not just the close link between animals
mals was unknown to many. This is despite recent esti- and infectious diseases that people are often oblivious
mates indicating that about six out of every ten known to. For many, the basic notion that many of the foods we
infectious diseases in humans come from interactions with commonly eat come from animals is unclear. And who
animals, while three out of every four emerging infections can blame them? Burger patties and battered nuggets are
are predicted to be zoonotic in future(1). Such high likeli- hardly recognisable as parts of cows or chickens, while cuts
hood of between-species disease transmission poses a con- of meat are given names like ‘steak’, ‘sausage’ or ‘fillet’, dis-
siderable threat to human health, wellbeing and economic sociating them from their animal source(4). This disconnect
prosperity, especially given research to suggest that there is reflected in the findings of a 2017 British Nutrition
are about 1·7 million undiscovered viruses currently hosted Foundation survey of 27 000 children in the UK, indicating
in wildlife(2). It is for this reason that the WHO is now that misconceptions about food are common. Nearly, a
emphasising the need for countries to adopt OneHealth third of those questioned believed cheese came from plants
approaches in their planning and action agendas. This and 14 % were unaware that bacon is part of a pig(5).

*Corresponding author: Email [email protected]

© The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of The Nutrition Society. This is an Open Access article, distributed
under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use,
distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

https://doi.org/10.1017/S136898002000316X Published online by Cambridge University Press

 COVID-19 and our Future Diets 3117
(14)
COVID-19 and consumer perceptions of meat spread , with new light shone on one other serious,
yet often ignored risk of intensive animal husbandry – anti-
Dissociation between animals and the food they produce microbial resistance(15). Liberal use of antibiotics in animal
reflects modern agricultural and shopping practices. feed, to manage disease and promote growth, has been rec-
Meat, egg and dairy production is now predominantly ognised as an impending risk to human health for some
managed by large agribusinesses. Consumers tend to only time(16). Yet, until now, few seemed willing to take decisive
interact with the end product when it is presented, neatly action to reduce the potential public health threat that this
pre-packaged and pre-prepared, on supermarket shelves. poses. COVID-19 may have the power to change this,
The food production process is otherwise entirely opaque, mobilising consumers to demand greater transparency
with few shoppers seeking clarity on how and where their about how their meat is produced, encouraging more indi-
food comes from(6,7). viduals (especially in high-income countries) to select
But, this situation might be changing. Given the current organic or grass-fed cuts over cheaper, intensively farmed
pandemic, a pertinent question many are now asking is alternatives, and kick-starting a shift into the rapidly grow-
whether our dietary status quo could be evolving as a result ing ‘meat alternative’ category(17).
of COVID-19. In particular, might consumer demand for Adding to this scrutiny is further media coverage of
animal source foods decrease, increase or stay the same, COVID-19 in meat packaging employees, particularly in
and, if such changes are afoot, how long might these last(8)? the US where an estimated 25 000 have been infected
One reason to believe that demand may be decreasing is and ninety died as a result of localised factory outbreaks(18).
to consider the role that the media has played in highlight- The resultant shutdown of multiple processing sites has not
ing the zoonotic root of coronviruses. This has helped to only led to mass culls of animals and a shortage in meat
open the eyes of many to just one of the safety issues asso- supply in the US (e.g. pork production is estimated to be
ciated with consuming animals. As a result of extensive down 6 % on 2019)(19) but has helped to highlight some
media coverage in China, a nationwide ban on using wild of the human aspects associated with systemised slaughter.
animals for food has now been imposed by the Chinese Workers in meat processing plants are typically low paid,
Government(9). Prior to this, markets in China, including overcrowded and engaged in gruelling and messy work.
the Wuhan Seafood Wholesale Market where the current Adding to this are complaints from employees of insuffi-
pandemic is thought to have started, sold an array of wild- cient protective clothing and a lack of sanitation options
life, including porcupines, snakes, rats and the now infa- to minimise their infection risk(20). For an industry opti-
mous pangolin(10). While this move was imposed rapidly, mised for efficiency, social distancing measures and poten-
commentators have pointed out that similar bans were tially costly safety regulations disrupt the smooth running of
instituted following previous outbreaks in China (i.e. in operations. It remains to be seen whether consumer behav-
response to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related iour will change as a result of these issues coming to light in
coronavirus (SARS-CoV) in 2003), but, because these were the media – either in response to potential price increases
not passed into law, they were eventually relaxed(11). to compensate for losses in meat sales or from consumers
Could the current outbreak lead to a different regulatory actively boycotting meat to stand in solidarity with workers.
outcome in China this time around? In our increasingly con-
nected world, the difference between 2020 and previous
outbreaks is that the impact of the disease has now Disrupted supply and eating habits
extended far beyond China’s national borders. As a result,
the country has come under substantial international pres- A second potential way that COVID-19 may be reducing
sure to change how they manage domestic food safety intake of animal products is through supply chain disruption
issues. For example, the WHO has recently updated their and panic-buying(21). Revenue from meat sales has report-
guidance calling for better regulation of Chinese wet mar- edly dipped since the onset of the pandemic, attributed in
kets, ensuring these conform to food safety and hygiene large part to restaurant closures. Meat is often favoured over
standards in order to lower future pandemic risks(12). vegetarian dishes when dining out, an option temporarily
Late in May, the region of Wuhan responded by passing paused for many. This has left more expensive cuts of meat
a wet market ban into law in that province, with a proposed unsold and storage facilities at peak capacity(22). So far, lost
duration of 5 years(13). restaurant sales have yet to be entirely compensated for by
increased supermarket spend on meat products(23).
Consumers have reportedly been stocking up on longer-
Animal agriculture, processing and human health lasting shelf staples instead. For example, tinned goods
manufacturer Kraft Heinz published a 6 % sales boost during
Beyond China, media reports of the COVID-19 pandemic the first quarter of 2020 as consumers purchased cans of
have stoked interest in meat production practices more soup and baked beans, anticipating 14-day isolation periods
generally. Conversations have ignited around the role that and wishing to minimise the frequency of their grocery store
factory farming plays in accelerating infectious disease visits(24).

https://doi.org/10.1017/S136898002000316X Published online by Cambridge University Press

 3118 S Attwood and C Hajat
In addition to shelf staples, shoppers in high-income culls reducing availability and pushing up prices as a
countries also appear to be purchasing far more organic result. These factors, in combination with safety concerns,
products than they were pre-pandemic, with sales in the led many Chinese consumers to switch to alternative pro-
UK up by more than 25 % in March and April 2020. This tein sources, reflected in depressed pork sales during
is thought to be due, in part, to a desire for assurance that 2019, down about 10–15 %(32). African Swine Flu seems
their food is safe and nutritious, as well as a boost in sub- to have accelerated a background consumer trend
scriptions to organic box delivery schemes as consumers towards more diversified protein intake in China, with
are keen to avoid escalating supermarket queues due to consumers trying a wider range of protein sources, like
social distancing regulations(25). Similarly, US sales of seafood, beef, mutton and poultry(33). Some are now
plant-based meat alternatives have also reportedly speculating as to whether COVID-19 may have a similar
increased, up by almost 200 % in April 2020 compared to catalytic effect on consumption of plant-based foods in
the same period in 2018(26). This has been ascribed to a Western nations, with the virus adding momentum to
combination of shortages in meat availability, heighted an already rapidly growing trend towards reduced intake
concern about food safety and health(27), plus competitive of animal-based foods(34).
marketing of meat alternatives as producers seize the cur- Previously, the BSE scandal in cattle in the UK during the
rent disruption as an ideal opportunity to attract new 1980s and early 1990s also reportedly led to consequences
customers(28). for consumer food choices. Following the discovery of a
It is possible that this shift towards consuming more link between meat from infected cows and Creutzfeldt–
plant-based foods and less dining out could benefit both Jakob disease, which causes brain damage in humans, beef
population health and the environment in high-income intake dropped drastically. Research just after this event
countries. The trends that have been observed in response showed that up to 30 % of consumers reduced beef con-
to COVID-19 may lead to lower intakes of salt, energies and sumption immediately following the scare(35). Follow-up
saturated fat from food purchased outside the home (i.e. as research in the late 1990s indicated that negative media
restaurant meals), while increased purchasing of beans and attention led to sustained losses in beef sales, although
pulses could lower the environmental footprint of diets if BSE seems to have had little impact on intake of other types
these are consumed instead of meat heavy options rather of meat(36).
than in addition to them(29). For such benefits to be fully Beyond the UK, further research on perceptions of beef
realised, however, short-term shifts must become ingrained also indicates that food scares like BSE can have a longer-
habits that are maintained in the longer term. term impact on consumer attitudes. One study from Canada
shows heightened risk perceptions are evident up to
8 years after the first disease outbreak(37). While risk per-
Learning from the past ceptions are by no means the sole determinant of meat con-
sumption, with consumers valuing taste, price and
This leads us to the next question of whether populations convenience above ethical or health concerns(38), this
around the world will continue to cook at home, eat less research does highlight the far-reaching impact that media
meat and more beans when the current pandemic subsides, coverage of food-related risks can have on consumer
or whether old patterns will return as life goes back to a behaviour.
‘new’ normal? To answer this, we can look at the longer-
term impact of previous, similar public health crises for
answers, specifically those involving diseases originating
from animal sources. Conclusion
Most closely aligned to the current situation is the out-
break of SARS, emerging in Hong Kong in 2003. The COVID-19 pandemic has already increased public
Research conducted after this outbreak showed increased awareness of zoonoses and led to short-term modifications
consumer concern with health, leading to adoption of in meat consumption. Past zoonotic outbreaks such as
healthier diets (i.e. avoiding excess sweet and choles- SARS and swine flu, albeit on a much smaller scale and
terol-rich food)(30). Equally, following the Avian Influenza far less global, led to short-term reductions in meat con-
outbreak in 2013 in China, decreased sales of poultry were sumption, a shift towards certain types of meat and a more
evident up to a year after onset. When questioned as to why pervasive change in perceptions of the health risks from
their shopping habits had changed, Chinese consumers meat consumption. If previous behavioural patterns reoc-
spoke of their fears about contracting flu from poultry cur, a possible consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic
and a lack of trust in institutions to ensure the safety of may be to catalyse the shift towards lower meat diets that
their diets(31). we are beginning to see in some high-income countries. As
More recently, the 2019 African Swine Flu outbreak led with many aspects of this pandemic, we must watch to wait
to significant disruption in Chinese pork supply, with mass and see.

https://doi.org/10.1017/S136898002000316X Published online by Cambridge University Press

 COVID-19 and our Future Diets 3119
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