Business Analytics : Global Edition

James R. Evans
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Business Analytics
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Business Analytics
Methods, Models, and Decisions

James R. Evans University of Cincinnati

THIRD EDITION
GLOBAL EDITION

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Brief Contents

Preface 17
About the Author 25
Credits 27

Part 1 Foundations of Business Analytics

Chapter 1 Introduction to Business Analytics 29
Chapter 2 Database Analytics 75

Part 2 Descriptive Analytics

Chapter 3 Data Visualization 113
Chapter 4 Descriptive Statistics 143
Chapter 5 Probability Distributions and Data Modeling 201
Chapter 6 Sampling and Estimation 247
Chapter 7 Statistical Inference 275

Part 3 Predictive Analytics

Chapter 8 Trendlines and Regression Analysis 311
Chapter 9 Forecasting Techniques 353
Chapter 10 Introduction to Data Mining 383
Chapter 11 Spreadsheet Modeling and Analysis 405
Chapter 12 Simulation and Risk Analysis 451

Part 4 Prescriptive Analytics

Chapter 13 Linear Optimization 493
Chapter 14 Integer and Nonlinear Optimization 551
Chapter 15 Optimization Analytics 593

Part 5 Making Decisions

Chapter 16 Decision Analysis 631

Appendix A 661
Glossary 685
Index 693

5
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Contents

Preface 17
About the Author 25
Credits 27

Part 1: Foundations of Business Analytics

Chapter 1: Introduction to Business Analytics 29
Learning Objectives 29
What Is Business Analytics? 31
Using Business Analytics 32 • Impacts and Challenges 33
Evolution of Business Analytics 34
Analytic Foundations 34 • Modern Business Analytics 35 • Software Support
and Spreadsheet Technology 37
Analytics in Practice: Social Media Analytics 38
Descriptive, Predictive, and Prescriptive Analytics 39
Analytics in Practice: Analytics in the Home Lending and Mortgage Industry 41
Data for Business Analytics 42
Big Data 44 • Data Reliability and Validity 44
Models in Business Analytics 45
Descriptive Models 47 • Predictive Models 49 • Prescriptive Models 50 •
Model Assumptions 51 • Uncertainty and Risk 53
Problem Solving with Analytics 54
Recognizing a Problem 54 • Defining the Problem 54 • Structuring the
Problem 55 • Analyzing the Problem 55 • Interpreting Results and Making a
Decision 55 • Implementing the Solution 55
Analytics in Practice: Developing Effective Analytical Tools at Hewlett-Packard 56
Key Terms 57 • Chapter 1 Technology Help 57 • Problems and Exercises 57 •
Case: Performance Lawn Equipment 59
Appendix A1: Basic Excel Skills 61
Excel Formulas and Addressing 62
Copying Formulas 63
Useful Excel Tips 63
Excel Functions 64
Basic Excel Functions 64 • Functions for Specific Applications 65 • Insert
Function 66 • Date and Time Functions 67
Miscellaneous Excel Functions and Tools 68
Range Names 68 • VALUE Function 71 • Paste
Special 71 • Concatenation 72 • Error Values 72
Problems and Exercises 73
7
8 Contents

Chapter 2: Database Analytics 75

Learning Objectives 75
Data Sets and Databases 77
Using Range Names in Databases 78
Analytics in Practice: Using Big Data to Monitor Water Usage in Cary,
North Carolina 79
Data Queries: Tables, Sorting, and Filtering 79
Sorting Data in Excel 80 • Pareto Analysis 81 • Filtering Data 82 •
Database Functions 84
Analytics in Practice: Discovering the Value of Database Analytics at Allders
International 86
Logical Functions 87
Lookup Functions for Database Queries 89
Excel Template Design 92
Data Validation Tools 93 • Form Controls 95
PivotTables 98
PivotTable Customization 100 • Slicers 103
Key Terms 104 • Chapter 2 Technology Help 104 • Problems and Exercises 105 •
Case: People’s Choice Bank 109 • Case: Drout Advertising Research Project 110

Part 2: Descriptive Analytics

Chapter 3: Data Visualization 113
Learning Objectives 113
The Value of Data Visualization 114
Tools and Software for Data Visualization 116
Analytics in Practice: Data Visualization for the New York City Police Department’s
Domain Awareness System 116
Creating Charts in Microsoft Excel 116
Column and Bar Charts 117 • Data Label and Data Table Chart Options 118 •
Line Charts 119 • Pie Charts 120 • Area Charts 121 • Scatter Charts
and Orbit Charts 122 • Bubble Charts 123 • Combination Charts 124 •
Radar Charts 125 • Stock Charts 125 • Charts from PivotTables 125 •
Geographic Data 126
Other Excel Data Visualization Tools 126
Data Bars 126 • Color Scales 127 • Icon Sets 128 • Sparklines 129
Dashboards 131
Analytics in Practice: Driving Business Transformation with IBM Business
Analytics 132
Key Terms 133 • Chapter 3 Technology Help 133 • Problems and Exercises 134 •
Case: Performance Lawn Equipment 135
Appendix A3: Additional Tools for Data Visualization 136
Hierarchy Charts 136
Waterfall Charts 136
PivotCharts 138
Tableau 139
Problems and Exercises 141
 Contents 9

Chapter 4: Descriptive Statistics 143

Learning Objectives 143
Analytics in Practice: Applications of Statistics in Health Care 145
Metrics and Data Classification 146
Frequency Distributions and Histograms 148
Frequency Distributions for Categorical Data 148 • Relative Frequency
Distributions 149 • Frequency Distributions for Numerical Data 150 • Grouped
Frequency Distributions 151 • Cumulative Relative Frequency Distributions 154 •
Constructing Frequency Distributions Using PivotTables 155
Percentiles and Quartiles 157
Cross-Tabulations 158
Descriptive Statistical Measures 160
Populations and Samples 160 • Statistical Notation 161 • Measures of
Location: Mean, Median, Mode, and Midrange 161 • Using Measures of Location
in Business Decisions 163 • Measures of Dispersion: Range, Interquartile
Range, Variance, and Standard Deviation 165 • Chebyshev’s Theorem and the
Empirical Rules 168 • Standardized Values (Z-Scores) 170 • Coefficient of
Variation 171 • Measures of Shape 172 • Excel Descriptive Statistics Tool 174
Computing Descriptive Statistics for Frequency Distributions 175
Descriptive Statistics for Categorical Data: The Proportion 177
Statistics in PivotTables 178
Measures of Association 179
Covariance 180 • Correlation 181 • Excel Correlation Tool 183
Outliers 184
Using Descriptive Statistics to Analyze Survey Data 186
Statistical Thinking in Business Decisions 187
Variability in Samples 188
Analytics in Practice: Applying Statistical Thinking to Detecting Financial Problems 190
Key Terms 191 • Chapter 4 Technology Help 192 • Problems and Exercises 193 •
Case: Drout Advertising Research Project 198 • Case: Performance Lawn Equipment 198
Appendix A4: Additional Charts for Descriptive Statistics in Excel for Windows 199
Problems and Exercises 200

Chapter 5: Probability Distributions and Data Modeling 201

Learning Objectives 201
Basic Concepts of Probability 203
Experiments and Sample Spaces 203 • Combinations and Permutations 203 •
Probability Definitions 205 • Probability Rules and Formulas 207 • Joint and
Marginal Probability 208 • Conditional Probability 210
Random Variables and Probability Distributions 213
Discrete Probability Distributions 215
Expected Value of a Discrete Random Variable 216 • Using Expected Value in
Making Decisions 217 • Variance of a Discrete Random Variable 219 • Bernoulli
Distribution 219 • Binomial Distribution 220 • Poisson Distribution 221
Analytics in Practice: Using the Poisson Distribution for Modeling Bids on
Priceline 223
10 Contents

Continuous Probability Distributions 224

Properties of Probability Density Functions 224 • Uniform Distribution 225 •
Normal Distribution 227 • The NORM.INV Function 228 • Standard Normal
Distribution 229 • Using Standard Normal Distribution Tables 230 • Exponential
Distribution 231 • Triangular Distribution 232
Data Modeling and Distribution Fitting 233
Goodness of Fit: Testing for Normality of an Empirical Distribution 235
Analytics in Practice: The Value of Good Data Modeling in Advertising 237
Key Terms 238 • Chapter 5 Technology Help 238 • Problems and Exercises 239 •
Case: Performance Lawn Equipment 245

Chapter 6: Sampling and Estimation 247

Learning Objectives 247
Statistical Sampling 248
Sampling Methods 249
Analytics in Practice: Using Sampling Techniques to Improve Distribution 251
Estimating Population Parameters 252
Unbiased Estimators 252 • Errors in Point Estimation 253 • Understanding
Sampling Error 254
Sampling Distributions 256
Sampling Distribution of the Mean 256 • Applying the Sampling Distribution of the
Mean 257
Interval Estimates 257
Confidence Intervals 258 • Confidence Interval for the Mean with Known
Population Standard Deviation 259 • The t-Distribution 260 • Confidence
Interval for the Mean with Unknown Population Standard Deviation 261 •
Confidence Interval for a Proportion 261 • Additional Types of Confidence
Intervals 263
Using Confidence Intervals for Decision Making 263
Data Visualization for Confidence Interval Comparison 264
Prediction Intervals 265
Confidence Intervals and Sample Size 266
Key Terms 268 • Chapter 6 Technology Help 268 • Problems and Exercises 269 •
Case: Drout Advertising Research Project 272 • Case: Performance Lawn Equipment 273

Chapter 7: Statistical Inference 275

Learning Objectives 275
Hypothesis Testing 276
Hypothesis-Testing Procedure 276
One-Sample Hypothesis Tests 277
Understanding Potential Errors in Hypothesis Testing 278 • Selecting the Test
Statistic 279 • Finding Critical Values and Drawing a Conclusion 280 • Two-
Tailed Test of Hypothesis for the Mean 282 • Summary of One-Sample
Hypothesis Tests for the Mean 283 • p-Values 284 • One-Sample Tests for
Proportions 285 • Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests 286 • An Excel
Template for One-Sample Hypothesis Tests 286
Two-Sample Hypothesis Tests 287
 Contents 11

Two-Sample Tests for Differences in Means 288 • Two-Sample Test for Means with
Paired Samples 290 • Two-Sample Test for Equality of Variances 292
Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) 294
Assumptions of ANOVA 296
Chi-Square Test for Independence 297
Cautions in Using the Chi-Square Test 299 • Chi-Square Goodness of Fit Test 300
Analytics in Practice: Using Hypothesis Tests and Business Analytics in a Help Desk
Service Improvement Project 301
Key Terms 302 • Chapter 7 Technology Help 302 • Problems and Exercises 304 •
Case: Drout Advertising Research Project 309 • Case: Performance Lawn Equipment 309

Part 3: Predictive Analytics

Chapter 8: Trendlines and Regression Analysis 311
Learning Objectives 311
Modeling Relationships and Trends in Data 313
Analytics in Practice: Using Predictive Trendline Models at Procter & Gamble 317
Simple Linear Regression 317
Finding the Best-Fitting Regression Line 319 • Using Regression Models for
Prediction 319 • Least-Squares Regression 320 • Simple Linear Regression with
Excel 322 • Regression as Analysis of Variance 324 • Testing Hypotheses for
Regression Coefficients 325 • Confidence Intervals for Regression Coefficients 325
Residual Analysis and Regression Assumptions 326
Checking Assumptions 327
Multiple Linear Regression 329
Analytics in Practice: Using Linear Regression and Interactive Risk Simulators to
Predict Performance at Aramark 332
Building Good Regression Models 334
Correlation and Multicollinearity 336 • Practical Issues in Trendline and Regression
Modeling 338
Regression with Categorical Independent Variables 338
Categorical Variables with More Than Two Levels 341
Regression Models with Nonlinear Terms 343
Key Terms 345 • Chapter 8 Technology Help 345 • Problems and Exercises 346 •
Case: Performance Lawn Equipment 350

Chapter 9: Forecasting Techniques 353

Learning Objectives 353
Analytics in Practice: Forecasting Call-Center Demand at L.L.Bean 354
Qualitative and Judgmental Forecasting 355
Historical Analogy 327 • The Delphi Method 355 • Indicators and Indexes 356
Statistical Forecasting Models 357
Forecasting Models for Stationary Time Series 359
Moving Average Models 359 • Error Metrics and Forecast Accuracy 361 •
Exponential Smoothing Models 363
Forecasting Models for Time Series with a Linear Trend 366
Double Exponential Smoothing 366 • Regression-Based Forecasting for Time Series
with a Linear Trend 368
12 Contents

Forecasting Time Series with Seasonality 369

Regression-Based Seasonal Forecasting Models 369 • Holt-Winters Models for
Forecasting Time Series with Seasonality and No Trend 371 • Holt-Winters Models
for Forecasting Time Series with Seasonality and Trend 373 • Selecting Appropriate
Time-Series-Based Forecasting Models 376
Regression Forecasting with Causal Variables 376
The Practice of Forecasting 377
Analytics in Practice: Forecasting at NBCUniversal 378
Key Terms 379 • Chapter 9 Technology Help 380 • Problems and Exercises 380 •
Case: Performance Lawn Equipment 382

Chapter 10: Introduction to Data Mining 383

Learning Objectives 383
The Scope of Data Mining 384
Cluster Analysis 386
Measuring Distance Between Objects 387 • Normalizing Distance
Measures 388 • Clustering Methods 388
Classification 390
An Intuitive Explanation of Classification 391 • Measuring Classification
Performance 392 • Classification Techniques 393
Association 398
Cause-and-Effect Modeling 400
Analytics In Practice: Successful Business Applications of Data Mining 402
Key Terms 402 • Chapter 10 Technology Help 403 • Problems and Exercises 403 •
Case: Performance Lawn Equipment 404

Chapter 11: Spreadsheet Modeling and Analysis 405

Learning Objectives 405
Analytics in Practice: Using Spreadsheet Modeling and Analysis at Nestlé 407
Model-Building Strategies 407
Building Models Using Logic and Business Principles 407 • Building Models Using
Influence Diagrams 408 • Building Models Using Historical Data 409 • Model
Assumptions, Complexity, and Realism 410
Implementing Models on Spreadsheets 410
Spreadsheet Design 411 • Spreadsheet Quality 412 • Data Validation 414
Analytics in Practice: Spreadsheet Engineering at Procter & Gamble 416
Descriptive Spreadsheet Models 416
Staffing Decisions 417 • Single-Period Purchase Decisions 418 • Overbooking
Decisions 420
Analytics in Practice: Using an Overbooking Model at a Student Health Clinic 421
Retail Markdown Decisions 421
Predictive Spreadsheet Models 423
New Product Development Model 423 • Cash Budgeting 425 • Retirement
Planning 426 • Project Management 426
Prescriptive Spreadsheet Models 429
Portfolio Allocation 429 • Locating Central Facilities 430 • Job Sequencing 432
 Contents 13

Analyzing Uncertainty and Model Assumptions 434

What-If Analysis 434 • Data Tables 434 • Scenario Manager 437 • Goal
Seek 438
Key Terms 440 • Chapter 11 Technology Help 441 • Problems and Exercises 442 •
Case: Performance Lawn Equipment 449

Chapter 12: Simulation and Risk Analysis 451

Learning Objectives 451
Monte Carlo Simulation 453
Random Sampling from Probability Distributions 455
Generating Random Variates using Excel Functions 457
Discrete Probability Distributions 457 • Uniform Distributions 458 • Exponential
Distributions 459 • Normal Distributions 459 • Binomial Distributions 461 •
Triangular Distributions 461
Monte Carlo Simulation in Excel 463
Profit Model Simulation 463 • New Product Development 466 • Retirement
Planning 468 • Single-Period Purchase Decisions 469 • Overbooking
Decisions 472 • Project Management 472
Analytics in Practice: Implementing Large-Scale Monte Carlo Spreadsheet
Models 474
Dynamic Systems Simulation 475
Simulating Waiting Lines 477
Analytics in Practice: Using Systems Simulation for Agricultural Product
Development 480
Key Terms 481 • Chapter 12 Technology Help 481 • Problems and Exercises 481 •
Case: Performance Lawn Equipment 491

Part 4: Prescriptive Analytics

Chapter 13: Linear Optimization 493
Learning Objectives 493
Optimization Models 494
Analytics in Practice: Using Optimization Models for Sales Planning at NBC 496
Developing Linear Optimization Models 497
Identifying Decision Variables, the Objective, and Constraints 498 • Developing a
Mathematical Model 499 • More About Constraints 500 • Implementing Linear
Optimization Models on Spreadsheets 502 • Excel Functions to Avoid in Linear
Optimization 503
Solving Linear Optimization Models 504
Solver Answer Report 506 • Graphical Interpretation of Linear Optimization with
Two Variables 507
How Solver Works 513
How Solver Creates Names in Reports 514
Solver Outcomes and Solution Messages 515
Unique Optimal Solution 515 • Alternative (Multiple) Optimal Solutions 515 •
Unbounded Solution 515 • Infeasibility 517
14 Contents

Applications of Linear Optimization 519

Blending Models 519 • Dealing with Infeasibility 520 • Portfolio Investment
Models 521 • Scaling Issues in Using Solver 523 • Transportation
Models 526 • Multiperiod Production Planning Models 529 • Multiperiod
Financial Planning Models 533
Analytics in Practice: Linear Optimization in Bank Financial Planning 536
Key Terms 537 • Chapter 13 Technology Help 537 • Problems and Exercises 538 •
Case: Performance Lawn Equipment 550

Chapter 14: Integer and Nonlinear Optimization 551

Learning Objectives 551
Integer Linear Optimization Models 552
Models with General Integer Variables 553 • Workforce-Scheduling Models 556 •
Alternative Optimal Solutions 559
Models with Binary Variables 561
Using Binary Variables to Model Logical Constraints 562 • Applications in Supply
Chain Optimization 563
Analytics in Practice: Supply Chain Optimization at Procter & Gamble 567
Nonlinear Optimization Models 567
A Nonlinear Pricing Decision Model 567 • Quadratic Optimization 571 • Practical
Issues Using Solver for Nonlinear Optimization 572
Analytics in Practice: Applying Nonlinear Optimization at Prudential Securities 573
Non-Smooth Optimization 574
Evolutionary Solver 574 • Evolutionary Solver for Sequencing and Scheduling
Models 577 • The Traveling Salesperson Problem 579
Key Terms 581 • Chapter 14 Technology Help 581 • Problems and Exercises 582 •
Case: Performance Lawn Equipment 591

Chapter 15: Optimization Analytics 593

Learning Objectives 593
What-If Analysis for Optimization Models 594
Solver Sensitivity Report 595 • Using the Sensitivity Report 600 •
Degeneracy 601 • Interpreting Solver Reports for Nonlinear Optimization
Models 601
Models with Bounded Variables 603
Auxiliary Variables for Bound Constraints 606
What-If Analysis for Integer Optimization Models 609
Visualization of Solver Reports 611
Using Sensitivity Information Correctly 618
Key Terms 622 • Chapter 15 Technology Help 622 • Problems and Exercises 622 •
Case: Performance Lawn Equipment 629

Part 5: Making Decisions

Chapter 16: Decision Analysis 631
Learning Objectives 631
Formulating Decision Problems 633
Decision Strategies Without Outcome Probabilities 634
 Contents 15

Decision Strategies for a Minimize Objective 634 • Decision Strategies for a

Maximize Objective 636 • Decisions with Conflicting Objectives 636
Decision Strategies with Outcome Probabilities 638
Average Payoff Strategy 638 • Expected Value Strategy 638 • Evaluating
Risk 639
Decision Trees 640
Decision Trees and Risk 642 • Sensitivity Analysis in Decision Trees 645
The Value of Information 646
Decisions with Sample Information 647 • Bayes’s Rule 648
Utility and Decision Making 649
Constructing a Utility Function 650 • Exponential Utility Functions 653
Analytics in Practice: Using Decision Analysis in Drug Development 654
Key Terms 655 • Chapter 16 Technology Help 655 • Problems and Exercises 656 •
Case: Performance Lawn Equipment 660
Online Supplements: Information about how to access and use Analytic Solver Basic
are available for download at www.pearsonglobaleditions.com.
Getting Started with Analytic Solver
Using Advanced Regression Techniques in Analytic Solver
Using Forecasting Techniques in Analytic Solver
Using Data Mining in Analytic Solver
Model Analysis in Analytic Solver
Using Monte Carlo Simulation in Analytic Solver
Using Linear Optimization in Analytic Solver
Using Integer and Nonlinear Optimization in Analytic Solver
Using Optimization Parameter Analysis in Analytic Solver
Using Decision Trees in Analytic Solver

Appendix A 661
Glossary 685
Index 693
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Preface

In 2007, Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris wrote a groundbreaking book, Com-
peting on Analytics: The New Science of Winning (Boston: Harvard Business School
Press). They described how many organizations are using analytics strategically to make
better decisions and improve customer and shareholder value. Over the past several years,
we have seen remarkable growth in analytics among all types of organizations. The Insti-
tute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) noted that ana-
lytics software as a service is predicted to grow at three times the rate of other business
segments in upcoming years.1 In addition, the MIT Sloan Management Review in col-
laboration with the IBM Institute for Business Value surveyed a global sample of nearly
3,000 executives, managers, and analysts.2 This study concluded that top-performing
organizations use analytics five times more than lower performers, that improvement of
information and analytics was a top priority in these organizations, and that many orga-
nizations felt they were under significant pressure to adopt advanced information and
analytics approaches. Since these reports were published, the interest in and the use of
analytics has grown dramatically.
In reality, business analytics has been around for more than a half-century. Business
schools have long taught many of the core topics in business analytics—statistics, data
analysis, information and decision support systems, and management science. However,
these topics have traditionally been presented in separate and independent courses and
supported by textbooks with little topical integration. This book is uniquely designed to
present the emerging discipline of business analytics in a unified fashion consistent with
the contemporary definition of the field.

About the Book

This book provides undergraduate business students and introductory graduate students
with the fundamental concepts and tools needed to understand the role of modern business
analytics in organizations, to apply basic business analytics tools in a spreadsheet environ-
ment, and to communicate with analytics professionals to effectively use and interpret
analytic models and results for making better business decisions. We take a balanced,
holistic approach in viewing business analytics from descriptive, predictive, and prescrip-
tive perspectives that define the discipline.

1Anne Robinson, Jack Levis, and Gary Bennett, INFORMS News: INFORMS to Officially Join Analyt-
ics Movement. http://www.informs.org/ORMS-Today/Public-Articles/October-Volume-37-Number-5/
INFORMS-News-INFORMS-to-Officially-Join-Analytics-Movement.
2“Analytics: The New Path to Value,” MIT Sloan Management Review Research Report, Fall 2010.

17
18 Preface

This book is organized in five parts.

1. Foundations of Business Analytics
The first two chapters provide the basic foundations needed to understand business
analytics and to manipulate data using Microsoft Excel. Chapter 1 provides an intro-
duction to business analytics and its key concepts and terminology, and includes an
appendix that reviews basic Excel skills. Chapter 2, Database Analytics, is a unique
chapter that covers intermediate Excel skills, Excel template design, and PivotTables.
2. Descriptive Analytics
Chapters 3 through 7 cover fundamental tools and methods of data analysis and
statistics. These chapters focus on data visualization, descriptive statistical mea-
sures, probability distributions and data modeling, sampling and estimation, and
statistical inference. We subscribe to the American Statistical Association’s rec-
ommendations for teaching introductory statistics, which include emphasizing
statistical literacy and developing statistical thinking, stressing conceptual under-
standing rather than mere knowledge of procedures, and using technology for
developing conceptual understanding and analyzing data. We believe these goals
can be accomplished without introducing every conceivable technique into an
800–1,000 page book as many mainstream books currently do. In fact, we cover
all essential content that the state of Ohio has mandated for undergraduate busi-
ness statistics across all public colleges and universities.
3. Predictive Analytics
In this section, Chapters 8 through 12 develop approaches for applying trendlines
and regression analysis, forecasting, introductory data mining techniques, build-
ing and analyzing models on spreadsheets, and simulation and risk analysis.
4. Prescriptive Analytics
Chapters 13 and 14 explore linear, integer, and nonlinear optimization models
and applications. Chapter 15, Optimization Analytics, focuses on what-if and sen-
sitivity analysis in optimization, and visualization of Solver reports.
5. Making Decisions
Chapter 16 focuses on philosophies, tools, and techniques of decision analysis.

Changes to the Third Edition

The third edition represents a comprehensive revision that includes many significant
changes. The book now relies only on native Excel, and is independent of platforms,
allowing it to be used easily by students with either PC or Mac computers. These changes
provide students with enhanced Excel skills and basic understanding of fundamental con-
cepts. Analytic Solver is no longer integrated directly in the book, but is illustrated in
online supplements to facilitate revision as new software updates may occur. These sup-
plements plus information regarding how to access Analytic Solver may be accessed at
http://www.pearsonglobaleditions.com.
Key changes to this edition are as follows:
■■ Also available for purchase (separately) is MyLab Statistics, a teaching and learn-
ing platform that empowers you to reach every student. By combining trusted
author content with digital tools and a flexible platform, MyLab personalizes the
 Preface 19

learning experience and improves results for each student. For example, new Excel
and StatCrunch Projects help students develop business decision-making skills.
■■ Each chapter now includes a short section called Technology Help, which pro-
vides useful summaries of key Excel functions and procedures, and the use of
supplemental software including StatCrunch and Analytic Solver Basic.
■■ Chapter 1 includes an Appendix reviewing basic Excel skills, which will be used
throughout the book.
■■ Chapter 2, Database Analytics, is a new chapter derived from the second edition
that focuses on applications of Excel functions and techniques for dealing with
spreadsheet data, including a new section on Excel template design.
■■ Chapter 3, Data Visualization, includes a new Appendix illustrating Excel tools
for Windows and a brief overview of Tableau.
■■ Chapter 5, Probability Distributions and Data Modeling, includes a new section
on Combinations and Permutations.
■■ Chapter 6, Sampling and Estimation, provides a discussion of using data visual-
ization for confidence interval comparison.
■■ Chapter 9, Forecasting Techniques, now includes Excel approaches for double
exponential smoothing and Holt-Winters models for seasonality and trend.
■■ Chapter 10, Introduction to Data Mining, has been completely rewritten to illus-
trate simple data mining techniques that can be implemented on spreadsheets
using Excel.
■■ Chapter 11, Spreadsheet Modeling and Analysis, is now organized along the ana-
lytic classification of descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive modeling.
■■ Chapter 12 has been rewritten to apply Monte-Carlo simulation using only Excel,
with an additional section of systems simulation concepts and approaches.
■■ Optimization topics have been reorganized into two chapters—Chapter 13, Lin-
ear Optimization, and Chapter 14, Integer and Nonlinear Optimization, which
rely only on the Excel-supplied Solver.
■■ Chapter 15 is a new chapter called Optimization Analytics, which focuses
on what-if and sensitivity analysis, and visualization of Solver reports; it also
includes a discussion of how Solver handles models with bounded variables.
In addition, we have carefully checked, and revised as necessary, the text and
problems for additional clarity. We use major section headings in each chapter
and tie these clearly to the problems and exercises, which have been revised
and updated throughout the book. At the end of each section we added several
“Check Your Understanding” questions that provide a basic review of fundamental
concepts to improve student learning. Finally, new Analytics in Practice features
have been incorporated into several chapters.

Features of the Book

■■ Chapter Section Headings—with “Check Your Understanding” questions that
provide a means to review fundamental concepts.
■■ Numbered Examples—numerous, short examples throughout all chapters illus-
trate concepts and techniques and help students learn to apply the techniques and
understand the results.
■■ “Analytics in Practice”—at least one per chapter, this feature describes real
applications in business.
■■ Learning Objectives—lists the goals the students should be able to achieve after
studying the chapter.
20 Preface

■■ Key Terms—bolded within the text and listed at the end of each chapter, these
words will assist students as they review the chapter and study for exams. Key
terms and their definitions are contained in the glossary at the end of the book.
■■ End-of-Chapter Problems and Exercises—clearly tied to sections in each
chapter, these help to reinforce the material covered through the chapter.
■■ Integrated Cases—allow students to think independently and apply the relevant
tools at a higher level of learning.
■■ Data Sets and Excel Models—used in examples and problems and are available
to students at www.pearsonglobaleditions.com.

Software Support
Technology Help sections in each chapter provide additional support to students for using
Excel functions and tools, Tableau, and StatCrunch.
Online supplements provide detailed information and examples for using Analytic
Solver Basic, which provides more powerful tools for data mining, Monte-Carlo simula-
tion, optimization, and decision analysis. These can be used at the instructor’s discretion,
but are not necessary to learn the fundamental concepts that are implemented using Excel.
Instructions for obtaining licenses for Analytic Solver Basic can be found on the book’s
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128
It was by some of these German miners whom the merchant
venturers of Cornwall engaged in exploiting the Cornish mines,
under a charter granted by Queen Elizabeth, that the “dowsing
rod” (Schlagruthe, or striking-rod) was introduced into England
for the purpose of discovering mineral veins. Professor W. F.
Barrett, “Water-Finding,” in the Times, January 21, 1905.
129
Essay, Of Usurie.
130
Merchant of Venice, Act i. Sc. 3.
131
I. Abrahams, Jewish Life in the Middle Ages, p. 251.
132
S. R. Gardiner, History of the Commonwealth and
Protectorate, vol. ii. p. 30, n. 3.
133
See above, p. 148.
134
Spectator, No. 213, Nov. 3 1711.
135
Ib. No. 495, Sept. 27, 1712.
136
Quoted in H. Graetz’s History of the Jews, vol. v. p. 359.
137
T. Carlyle, History of Frederick the Great, bk. xvi. ch. vii.
138
This arrangement was abolished by the Separation Law
promulgated on December 9, 1905, when the Republic
resolved neither “to recognise, pay salaries to, nor subsidise
any form of worship.” The Jews have shared the effects of this
Act with the Protestants and Roman Catholics of France, and
like the former of these Christian denominations, and unlike
the latter, readily accepted the change.
139
Over the Teacups, pp. 193 fol.
140
J. G. Lockhart, Life of Sir W. Scott, Ch. xlvi.
141
The original of Scott’s Rebecca is said to have been a real
person—Rebecca Gratz of Philadelphia. Washington Irving,
 who knew Miss Gratz, introduced her to Scott’s notice. She
was born in 1781, and died in 1869. Her claim to have been
“the original of Rebecca in Ivanhoe” is sustained in a paper
with that title in the Century Magazine, 1882, pp. 679 fol.
142
Don Juan, Canto ii. lxv. It is only fair to add that Scott also, at
the time of his financial distress, embittered by the harsh
treatment which he experienced at the hands of his Jewish
creditors, Abud and Son, expressed himself in very strong
terms concerning “the vagabond stock-jobbing Jews” in
general, and the Abuds in particular. See Scott’s Diary under
dates Nov. 25, 1825, and Oct. 9, 1826, in J. G. Lockhart, Life
of Sir W. Scott, Ch. lxv. and lxxi.
143
Table-Talk.
144
Luther’s Table-Talk, Ch. 852.
145
Coleridge’s Table-Talk, April 14, 1830.
146
Cp. above, p. 225.
147
Editor’s note on May 30, 1830.
148
Aug. 14, 1833.
149
Editor’s note on April 14, 1830.
150
Charles Lamb, Essay on Imperfect Sympathies.
151
J. Morley, Life of W. E. Gladstone, Vol. i. pp. 106, 375.
152
See below, pp. 378 fol.
153
See The Jewish Encyclopaedia, passim.
154
This phase of the internal history of Russia since 1881 is well
summarised in an article on “The Constitutional Agitation in
Russia,” by Prince Kropotkin, The Nineteenth Century,
January, 1905.
155
See Memorandum of the Armenian Patriarchate, protesting
against the edict of spoliation, issued on June 12–25, 1903, in
Armenia, October and November, 1906.
156
See A. Vambéry, “The Awakening of the Tartars,” The
Nineteenth Century, February, 1905.
157
The Times, October 8, 1904.
158
According to the census returns of 1897, the number of
illiterate inhabitants in the country varies from 44.9 to 89.2 per
cent.
159
E. F. G. Law, “The Present Condition of Russia,” The
Fortnightly Review, April, 1882.
160
Vice-Consul Wagstaff’s report, in Goldwin Smith’s “The Jews,”
The Nineteenth Century, Nov. 1882.
161
See above, p. 148. Cp. p. 167.
162
Olga Novikoff, “The Temperance Movement in Russia,” The
Nineteenth Century, Sept. 1882. Cp. M. O. Menchikoff, “The
Jewish Peril in Russia,” The Monthly Review, Feb. 1904.
163
See above, p. 329.
164
Goldwin Smith, ubi supra.
165
Ibid.
166
Goldwin Smith, ubi supra.
167
See above, p. 154.
168
For a full account of this and other aspects of Russian
domestic policy, the reader is referred to Herr Wolf von
Schierbrand’s Russia: Her Strength and her Weakness, 1904.
169
E. F. G. Law, ubi supra.
170
Olga Novikoff, ubi supra.
171
Goldwin Smith, “The Jews,” The Nineteenth Century, Nov.
1882. Cp. Pierre Botkine, Secretary of the Russian Legation in
Washington, “A Voice for Russia,” The Century Magazine, Feb.
1893.
172
Laurence Oliphant, “The Jew and the Eastern Question,” The
Nineteenth Century, Aug. 1882.
173
Pierre Botkine, Secretary of the Russian Legation in
Washington, “A Voice for Russia,” in The Century Magazine,
Feb. 1893. Cp. “A reply” to it by Joseph Jacobs, Secretary of
the Russo-Jewish Committee, London, in the same periodical,
July, 1893.
174
In 1902–3 the Russian Empire, according to the Statistical
Table in the Jewish Year Book, contained 5,189,401 Jews,
representing 04.13 of the total population (125,668,000). There
are serious reasons, however, to believe that their real number
is considerably in excess of this figure.
175
The Times, June 14, 1905.
176
Towards the end of 1904 a Bill was introduced in the Council of
the Empire, preventing the promotion even of baptized Jews.
But, owing to reasons which will be explained in the sequel, it
was withdrawn.—The newspaper Voshod, reported by Reuter
in a despatch dated St. Petersburg, Dec. 23.
177
H. H. Munro in the Morning Post, June 3, 1904.
178
Statement by M. De Plehve, The Standard, April 8, 1904.
179
Reuter telegram, dated Melbourne, June 4, 1903.
180
The Daily Chronicle, June 22, 1903.
181
Reuter telegram, dated Berlin, May 30, 1903.
182
Andrew D. White, “A Diplomat’s Recollections of Russia,” The
Century Magazine, Nov. 1904.
183
Prince Kropotkin, “The Constitutional Agitation in Russia,” The
Nineteenth Century, Jan. 1905.
184
Those were the words of the Crown Prosecutor at the Kishineff
Trial, The Times, Dec. 25, 1903.
185
The Times, Dec. 19, 1903.
186
Ibid.
187
Reuter telegram, dated Kishineff, Dec. 21, 1903.
188
Reuter telegram, dated St. Petersburg, Dec. 17, 1903.
189
M. O. Menchikoff, one of the editors of the Novoe Vremya,
“The Jewish Peril in Russia,” The Monthly Review, Feb. 1904.
190
Reuter telegram, dated St. Petersburg, June 4, 1903.
191
The Standard correspondent at Kieff, under date Dec. 18,
1903.
192
A meagre account of the occurrence appeared in The
Standard, Sept. 25, 1903.
193
The Times, Dec. 21, 1903.
194
Tugan-Baranowsky, “Anti-Semitism in Contemporary Russia,”
The Monthly Review, Jan. 1904.
195
Some very illuminating revelations concerning the organisation
of these authorised riots were made during a recent trial at St.
Petersburg. See Reuter telegram from that town, Oct. 26,
1906, and an account by the Tribune correspondent under
same date.
196
See Reuter telegram, dated St. Petersburg, June 13, and Mr.
Lucien Wolf’s letter in The Times of June 14, 1904.
197
Andrew D. White, “A Diplomat’s Recollections of Russia,” The
Century Magazine, Nov. 1904.
198
The Standard, Aug. 1, 1904.
199
Lucien Wolf, “M. De Plehve and the Jewish Question,” in The
Times, Feb. 6, 1904.
200
Reuter telegram, Aug. 17, 1904.
201
Reuter telegram, dated St. Petersburg, Sept. 12, 1904.
202
Reuter telegram, dated Kattowitz (Silesia), Sept. 12, 1904.
203
The Special Commissioner of the Daily Telegraph, Dec. 10,
1904.
204
Reuter telegram, dated St. Petersburg, Sept. 3, 1904.
205
Reuter telegram, dated New York, January 10, 1905.
206
According to the returns of the last census (1899), 78 per cent.
of the population over 7 years of age can neither read nor
write.
207
See above, p. 243.
208
See a most interesting sketch of the movement in S.
Schechter’s Studies in Judaism, pp. 1 fol., the same author’s
article on the subject in Nord und Süd, January, 1905, and
S. M. Dubnow’s article in the Jewish Encyclopedia, Vol. vi. pp.
251 fol.
209
H. Sutherland Edwards, Sir William White: His Life and
Correspondence, p. 84.
210
Ibid. See also a summary of this period under title “The Jews in
Roumania” in The Standard, Sept. 30, 1902.
211
J. Morley, Life of W. E. Gladstone, Vol. iii. p. 475 (1891).
212
The story is related at length by Gibbon, Decline and Fall of
the Roman Empire, Ch. xxvi.
213
One example will suffice. The peasant word for a convivial
gathering is written sedatore, and pronounced shezetoare.
214
Alexander A. Landesco, in The Century Magazine, May, 1906,
p. 160.
215
The Vienna correspondent of The Times, June 10, 1902.
216
Carmen Sylva, “The Jews in Roumania,” The Century
Magazine, March, 1906.
217
See statistics of population in the Jewish Year Book for 1902–
03. Cp. the Statesman’s Year Book for 1906.
218
Report from Bucharest, published in the Pester Lloyd, see The
Standard, Sept. 27, 1902. Cp. the article “Oath More Judaico”
in the Jewish Encyclopedia, ix. p. 367.
219
The Vienna correspondent of The Standard, Sept. 19, 1902.
220
Reuter telegram, dated Bucharest, April 12, 1902.
221
The Times, June 10, 1902.
222
Reuter telegram, dated Washington, Sept. 17, 1902.
223
The Standard, Sept. 23, 1902.
224
The attitude of the various Powers is described at length by the
correspondents of the London Press in their respective
capitals. See Standard, Sept. 20, 25, 26; Morning Post, Sept.
20; Daily Chronicle, Sept. 22, etc.
225
The Daily Chronicle, September 29, 1902.
226
Carmen Sylva, “The Jews in Roumania,” The Century
Magazine, March, 1906.
227
Alexander A. Landesco, The Century Magazine, May, 1906, p.
160.
228
The Vienna correspondent of the Standard, Sept. 26, 1902.
229
Isocrates, Panegyr. 50.
230
In Germany, out of a total population of 56,500,000, there are
587,000 Jews, of whom 376,000 reside in Prussia. In Austria
there are 1,150,000 out of a total population of 26,000,000,
and in Hungary 850,000 out of a total population of
19,000,000. The percentage of Jews, therefore, is in Germany
01.04, in Austria 04.80, in Hungary 04.43.—Jewish Year-Book,
1902–03.
231
“The Jews in Germany,” by the author of “German Home Life,”
The Contemporary Review, January, 1881.
232
Ernest Schuster, “The Anti-Jewish Agitation in Germany,” The
Fortnightly Review, March 1, 1881.
233
Statutes quoted by Lucien Wolf in “The Anti-Jewish Agitation,”
The Nineteenth Century, February, 1881.
234
Ernest Schuster, ubi supra.
235
See above, p. 307.
236
“The Jews in Germany,” by the author of “German Home Life,”
The Contemporary Review, January, 1881. For these and
similar demands see also Ernest Schuster, ubi supra.
237
Karl Blind, “The Conflict in Germany,” The Nineteenth Century,
February, 1882.
238
The Vienna Correspondent of the Times in a letter dated Nov.
11, 1904.
239
The Times, October 22, 1904.
240
Reuter telegram, dated Vienna, June 11, 1906. Cp. “Hidden
Forces in Austrian Politics,” a letter by “Scotus Viaticus” in the
Spectator, July 7, 1906.
241
The Vienna correspondent of The Times, January 7, 1907.
242
Lucien Wolf, “The Anti-Jewish Agitation,” The Nineteenth
Century, Feb., 1881.
243
Étude sur l’Ecclésiaste, pp. 91 fol.
244
See Qu’est-ce qu’une Nation? a paper read at the Sorbonne
on March 11, 1882, in Discours et Conférences, pp. 277 fol.
245
See lectures and speeches delivered in 1883 in Discours et
Conférences, pp. 336, 374, etc.
246
See Ed. Drumont’s La France Juive, a work which, published
in 1886, raised its author at once to the rank of commander-in-
chief of the anti-Semitic forces in France.
247
86,885 in a total population of 38,595,000, i.e. a percentage of
00.22, Jewish Year Book, 1902–03.
248
The Standard, Dec. 7, 1903.
249
A statistic supplied to the Commission for Tlemcen shows that
out of 6000 Jews there are only 10 possessing more than
£2000, and another, supplied for Constantine, shows that out
of 1024 Jewish electors there are only 10 possessed of real
estate and 146 merchants. The rest lead a miserable hand-to-
mouth existence.—Le Temps, Sept. 25, 1901.
250
J. Morley, Life of W. E. Gladstone, vol. iv. pp. 552, 558.
251
E.g. Sir J. G. T. Sinclair, A Defence of Russia (1877); T. P.
O’Connor, Lord Beaconsfield: a Biography (1878); etc.
252
In justice to the writer it must be added that this ungenerous
and untrue caricature was the common estimate of Disraeli
 entertained by all his political opponents. Except Lord Acton,
they all agreed with the Duke of Argyll in holding that Disraeli
was a “fantastic adventurer”—a man who, having no opinions
of his own and no traditions with which to break, “was free to
play with prejudices in which he did not share, and to express
passions which were not his own, except in so far as they were
tinged with personal resentment.” See Duke of Argyll:
Autobiography and Memoirs, Vol. i. p. 280.
253
Malcolm MacColl, “Lord Beaconsfield,” The Contemporary
Review, June, 1881.
254
Goldwin Smith, “The Jews,” The Nineteenth Century, Nov.,
1882. The writer repeats all these views, in almost identical
terms, in The Independent, June 21, 1906.
255
Israel Abrahams, Jewish Life in the Middle Ages, Introd.
256
Rise and Influence of the Spirit of Rationalism in Europe, vol. ii.
p. 281.
257
Goldwin Smith, ubi supra.
258
S. Singer, “The Russo-Jewish Immigrant,” in The English
Illustrated Magazine, Sept. 1891.
259
David Baron, The Ancient Scriptures and the Modern Jew, p.
179, 1900.
260
Arnold White, The Modern Jew, 1899.
261
Jewish Year Book, 1902.
262
Report in The Standard, Dec. 14, 1903.
263
Arnold White, For Efficiency, 1902, price 3d.
264
“The Alien Inquiry: an omitted point,” The Standard, Sept. 5,
1903.
265
The Pioneer, Nov. 14, 1904. Commercial jealousy, embittered
by racial prejudice, is also at the root of the anti-Japanese
agitation now raging in California.
266
Charles Grant, The Contemporary Review, March, 1881.
267
See an article under the title “The East-End Hevra” in The
Standard of April 27, and a reply to it in the issue of May 1,
1903.
268
J. H. Schooling, “Foreigners in England,” The Fortnightly
Review, November, 1904. Mr. Chamberlain also, in the debate
on the Aliens Bill (May 2, 1905), frankly avowed that he
supported that measure because it harmonised with his policy
of protection, and he very logically dwelt on the identity of the
principle underlying both programmes.
269
Report of the Commission, pp. 19, 20.
270
The Daily Chronicle, January 9, 1903.
271
The Daily Chronicle, Feb. 17, 1904.
272
For the text of the Bill, see The Times, April 1, 1904.
273
The Standard, leading article, April 26, 1904.
274
Mr. Winston Churchill’s letter to a member of the Jewish
community in Manchester, May 30, 1904.
275
The Daily Chronicle, May 18, 1903.
276
The Daily Chronicle, May 4, 1904.
277
Letter by Mr. Balfour, dated May 9, 1904.
278
The Daily Chronicle, May 13, 1904.
279
Ibid. May 14, 1904.
280
A Modern Exodus. By Violet Guttenberg.
281
Report in The Standard, April 2, 1904.
282
Report in The Times, April 17, 1905.
283
Mr. Wyndham’s statement in the House of Commons, April 25,
1904.
284
“Milesian,” letter in The Times, April 4, 1904.
285
E. B. Levin, letter in The Times, April 12, 1904.
286
“Milesian,” ubi supra.
287
“Milesian,” ubi supra.
288
See The Times, April 8 and 12, 1904.
289
The Standard, August 8, 1904.
290
J. H. Schooling, “Foreigners in England,” The Fortnightly
Review, November, 1904.
291
W. Evans Gordon, “The Economic Side of Alien Immigration,”
The Nineteenth Century, February, 1905.
292
W. Evans Gordon, letter in The Times, March 22, 1904.
293
Letter in The Standard, August 8, 1904.
294
Ibid. July 7, 1904.
295
J. Morley, Life of W. E. Gladstone, vol. iii. p. 475.
296
For a list of such works see the article “Inquisition” in the
Encyclopaedia Britannica.
297
Jeremiah xxxii. 37. Cp. Isaiah xi. 12 etc.
298
S. Schechter, Studies in Judaism, pp. 131–2.
299
For an exhaustive account of the historic development of
Zionism see Lucien Wolf, “Zionism,” in the Encyclopaedia
 Britannica.
300
For a full enumeration of the arguments and sentiments which
impelled the mass of Russian and Roumanian Jews in the
early ’Eighties to prefer an Eastern to a Western exodus, see
Laurence Oliphant, “The Jew and the Eastern Question,” The
Nineteenth Century, August, 1882.
301
Laurence Oliphant, ubi supra. On the other hand, it must not
be forgotten that the members of the Chovevi Zion Societies
represented but a very small proportion of the total Jews of the
world.
302
The Jewish World, Aug. 15, 1902.
303
The St. Petersburg correspondent of The Times, Oct. 14,
1902.
304
See the late Minister’s of the Interior utterances on the subject:
Lucien Wolf, “M. De Plehve and the Jewish Question,” in The
Times, Feb. 6, 1904.
305
The Jewish Question, Gay and Bird, 1894, p. 27.
306
Pp. 31–32.
307
P. 38.
308
Table-Talk, April 13, 1830.
309
Lucien Wolf, “Zionism,” Encyclopaedia Britannica.
310
Aspects of the Jewish Question. By “A Quarterly Reviewer,”
1902, p. 76.
311
P. 16.
312
M. J. Landa, “The Doom of Zionism,” in The Manchester
Guardian, Jan. 10, 1905.
313
“Palestine Revisited,” The Statesman, Oct. 23, 1904.
314
Lucien Wolf, article on “Zionism” in the Encyclopaedia
Britannica.
315
Report in The Daily Chronicle, May 18, 1903.
316
Reuter telegram, dated Basel, Aug. 24, 1903.
317
Reuter telegram, dated St. Petersburg, Oct. 12, 1903.
318
“Palestine Revisited,” The Statesman, October 23, 1904.
319
On this aspect of the Jewish question see an article by M.
Anatole Leroy-Beaulieu in the Revue des deux Mondes, March
1, 1903; and another on La Langue Française en Orient in Le
Monde Illustré, April 11, 1903.
320
The Daily Chronicle, May 18, 1903.
321
L. J. Greenberg, report of a meeting of “Friends of Jewish
Freedom,” in The Times, Dec. 7, 1904.
322
Communication dated Foreign Office, Aug. 14, 1903.
323
Report in The Standard, May 4, 1904.
324
Reuter telegram, dated Paris, Dec. 21, 1903; Paris
correspondent of The Times, under same date.
325
The Daily Chronicle, Dec. 22, 1903. Cp. Mr. L. J. Greenberg’s
statement, The Times, Dec. 7, 1904.
326
“The East Africa Protectorate,” The Nineteenth Century,
September, 1904; cp. his book under the same title (1905), pp.
177–8; 315.
327
See The Times, Dec. 7, 1904.
328
Reuter telegram, dated Dec. 24, 1904.
329
Report in The Times, Dec. 20, 1904.
330
The American Hebrew, quoted in The Literary Digest, May 20,
1905.
 INDEX

Abdul Hamid, 491, 492, 501.

Abdul-Rahman III., 71.
Abraham, 39, 312, 502, 518.
Abramovitch, 355.
Abu-Yussuf Chasdai, 71.
Acosta, Uriel, 249–50, 298.
Act of 1858, allowing Jews to omit certain words from oath, 324.
Addison, 282–4.
Aelia Capitolina, see Jerusalem.
Africa, flight of Jews to, 150.
Age of Bronze, The (Byron), 316.
Agricultural settlements, 363, 507;
college, 509;
colonies, foundation of, 507, 509.
Agriculture, attitude of Jews towards, 509, 510, 514.
Agrippa, King, 23.
Akers-Douglas, 462–4, 469.
Albigensian sect, in France, 91–5, 144, 217.
Albigenses, 83.
Alexander the Great, 1, 20, 301, 302, 408.
Alexander Severus, Emperor, 39.
Alexander II., Czar, 332–3;
assassination of, 334, 335, 368.
Alexander II., Pope, 142.
Alexander III., restrictive policy, 335.
Alexandria, Jews in, 2, 20, 22, 47, 73, 195;
anti-Jewish movement in, 23;
Graeco-Jewish feud, 25–6.
Alexis Petrovitch, 330.
Alfonso VI. of Castile, 142–3.
Alfonso X. (the Wise), 144–5, 150.
Alfonso XI., 146, 148.
Algeria, Jewish Question in, 436.
Alien Peril, Royal Commission appointed to enquire into, 460, 465,
466.
Alien question, 460, 478.
Aliens Act, 475–6.
Aliens Bill, 462–7, 469, 472–5.
Alliance Israélite Universelle, 482, 483, 507, 510.
Almohades, the, 74.
Alroy, David, 90.
Alypius, of Antioch, 45.
Alsace, Jews in, 294–5, 296.
Ambrosius, Bishop of Milan, 52.
America, 277, 357, 397, 398, 403, 417, 460.
American Note (Mr. Hay’s), 398–403.
Amsterdam, 247, 277, 329;
synagogue inaugurated and press established, 248.
Andalusia, Semitic renaissance in, 70.
Anglo-Jewish Association, 483.
Anglo-Jewish prayer to the King, 324.
Anne, Queen, statute of, concerning Jews, 282;
repeal of, 323.
Anti-Semitic League, The, 421–2.
Anti-Semitism, origin of, 407, 411, 434;
literature, 418–9, 433;
its effect on modern Jews, 479–80.
Antioch, Jews of, 47, 49–50.
Antiochus Epiphanes, 3, 32.
Antoninus Pius, 38.
Apis, Temple of, 21.
Aquinas, Thomas, 99, 110, 185.
Aramaic Papyri (discovered by R. Mond), 2.
Archangel, British traders at, 329–30.
Argentine Republic, 361.
Argyll, Duke of, 438.
Arian kings, Israel under, 57.
Armenians, 402.
Arnold, Matthew, 457.
Asher, 200–1.
Ashkenazim, the, 508.
Asia Minor, Jews in, 90.
Assideans, the, see Chassidim.
Atonement, Day of, 212.
Augustus, 21, 22.
Austria, 292, 397, 412, 415;
anti-Semitic agitations in, 426, 429, 490.
Austrian Constitution grants full liberty to Jews, 309.
Avignon, Council of, 93–4, 186, 235.
Avitus, Bishop of Clermont, 56.

Baalshem, Israel, 326, 380, 381, 382.

Babylon, 1, 11, 55, 300;
Jews in, 35, 39.
Babylonian captivity, return from, 325.
Bacon, 272–4.
Balfour, Arthur, 460, 466, 467.
Balkan States, number of Jews in, 395.
Baltic provinces, 334–5;
Russification of, 336.
Barcelona, theological contest at, 98, 145, 147.
Bar-Cochba, 37.
Barth, Dr., publication in Die Nation by, 358.
Basel, Zionist congresses at, 501, 506, 511–6.
Basil, 51–2.
Bathori, Stephen, 237.
Bayezid (the Lightning), 180.
Beaconsfield, Lord, see Disraeli.
Beckmann, General, 360.
Bel, Temple of, 1.
Belisarius, 49, 54.
Benjamin, of Tiberias, 50.
Benjamin, of Tudela, 52, 89–90, 147, 486.
Bentwich, Herbert, 515.
Berlin, 292;
Congress at, 385, 398, 483;
Treaty of, 390, 391, 399, 401;
foundation of anti-Jewish society in, 421;
Jews’ Chace at, 423.
Bessarabets, the, anti-Semite paper, 358–9.
Bessarabia, 360, 361;
massacre of Jews in, 510.
Beth Din, the, 64, 141.
Beziers, 68–9;
massacre at, 92;
Council of, 100.
Bismarck, 307, 384, 385, 416, 420, 421, 424.
Black Art, Jewish professors of, 103, 222.
Black Death, 147, 158.
Black Sea opened to international commerce, 383.
Boccaccio, 187, 189.
Bodo, Bishop, apostacy of, 80–1.
Bologna, university of, 410.
Book of Maxims (Santob de Carrion), 147.
Bordeaux, internecine feud at, 294.
Boulanger, General, 432–3.
Bratiano, 383.
British East Africa, 511, 513, 515;
Commission sent to, 515, 516.
British Jews’ Society, 466.
Bucharest, 382, 429.
Buda-Pesth, outrages in, 426.
Bulgaria, 387, 395.
Bund, the, secret society, 376.

Cabbala, the, 194–5, 200, 225.

Caesar, Julius, 20–1, 302.
Caligula, 22, 23, 31.
Cambridge, 131, 133, 324.
Canada, emigration of Jews to, 403.
Cancionero, 147.
Captivity, The (Goldsmith), quoted, 299.
Cassius, Dion, 35.
Cassius, Quaestor, 20.
Castile, Civil war in, 148;
Holy Office established in, 156, 405.
Cathari, see Albigenses.
Catholicism, the poet of, 184;
warfare against, 187, 311.
Chamberlain, Joseph, 399, 511.
Chanukah, see Feast of Dedication.
Charlemagne, 78–9, 302, 409.
Charles II., 280, 281.
Charles the Simple, 81–2.
Charles X. of Sweden, 241.