Catf KBR Landed Cost Hydrogen Carriers
Catf KBR Landed Cost Hydrogen Carriers
Catf KBR Landed Cost Hydrogen Carriers
June 2022
M713-PR-00001-A
Revision: 0
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CONTENTS
ABBREVIATIONS 4
HOLDS 6
1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7
1.1 Complete Hydrogen Value Chain Comparison 9
1.2 Carbon Emissions Comparisons 14
1.3 Marine vs Pipeline Import of Hydrogen 16
1.4 Impact of Carbon Sequestration Pipeline 17
1.5 Ammonia Value Chain 17
2.0 INTRODUCTION 19
2.1 Project Background 19
2.2 Purpose 19
2.3 Design Basis 19
3.0 METHODOLOGY AND RESULTS 28
3.1 Step 1 - Optimum Sailing Speed 28
3.2 Step 2 - Export Location Specific Scenarios, LH2 29
3.3 Step 3 - Export Location Specific Scenarios, MCH 33
3.4 Step 4 - Export Location Specific Scenarios, Uncracked Ammonia 36
3.5 Step 5 - Export Location Specific Scenarios, Cracked Ammonia 40
3.6 Hydrogen Import by Pipeline 42
4.0 CARBON EMISSIONS COMPARISONS 45
5.0 HYDROGEN CARRIER KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS 48
5.1 HGP Performance 50
5.2 Supply Chain Power / Heat Requirement Comparison 51
5.3 Carrier Production & Export Terminal Comparison 52
5.4 Shipping Comparison 53
5.5 Import Terminal Comparison 54
5.6 Carrier Energy Comparison 56
6.0 HYDROGEN CARRIER SELECTION CONSIDERATIONS 58
6.1 Hydrogen Carrier Introduction 58
6.2 Liquid Hydrogen (LH2) 62
6.3 Ammonia Carrier 69
6.4 Methylcyclohexane (MCH) 74
APPENDICES
APPENDIX I LCOH GRAPHICAL OUTPUTS
APPENDIX II CASE RESULTS
APPENDIX III SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS FOR MARINE TRANSPORT OF BULK AMMONIA
• Hydrogen Production: Hydrogen Generation Plant including carbon capture and sequestration;
• Carrier Production & Export: Carrier production / synthesis, export storage and export jetty;
• Transport: Marine vessel; and
• Import: Import jetty, carrier storage, and regasification / liberation of hydrogen at the import facility.
A few key assumptions were made in this study which relies on future improvements in technology and
commercialisation of hydrogen demand. The most important assumption is additional production of
hydrogen is considered to account for energy use across the hydrogen/ ammonia supply chain (e.g.,
process heating, shipping fuel or general losses). This assumes that use of hydrogen/ ammonia for
industrial heating and as fuel for shipping, large scale dehydrogenation facilities for ammonia and MCH,
and shipping LH2 at a commercial scale will mature sufficiently to make these scenarios plausible by 2030.
The significant economic penalty of producing excess hydrogen/ ammonia is done principally to reduce the
carbon emission of the supply chain for low carbon hydrogen delivery. It is also assumed power used in all
the facilities is bought over the fence and generated by clean energy (e.g., renewables + storage, nuclear,
fossil with full CCS, or self-consumption of produced hydrogen), being delivered with no net carbon
emissions. The marine vessels calculations are performed on a lease based model, where vessels are
chartered at a monthly hire rate for the particular duration required to transport the required cargo.
Finally, whilst imports from Russia were analysed to allow full coverage of alternative pipeline gas imports
considered viable when the study was first commissioned in 2021, it is recognised that, given the current
geopolitical situation, this may not be a viable scenario in the future.
Hydrogen
Natural Gas H2 (Gas)
Production Unit
Carbon
Carbon Capture
Sequestration
Fuel
Electricity
Units of
Norway Argentina United States Qatar Saudi Arabia
Measure (UoM)
Case no. 4 6 5 7 2
Hydrogen
Delivered to kTPA 282 323 312 319 303
Export Terminal1
Natural Gas Cost USD/ MMTBU 10.16 2.94 3.24 1.25 1.25
Hydrogen
USD MM 1314 1182 1217 1160 1120
Generation Plant
Export Terminal USD MM 4743 4269 4392 4188 4044
Import Terminal2 USD MM 2732 2732 2732 2732 2732
Specific CAPEX
USD MM/kTPA
per kTPA H2 35 33 33 32 32
H2
(landed)
Overall Value
USD MM 8789 8183 8341 8080 7896
Chain CAPEX
Total Annual
USD MM 279 484 409 497 424
OPEX
Indicative Value
USD/kgH2 7.33 6.83 6.60 6.34 6.09
Chain LCOH
Notes:
1. Net HGP hydrogen production required to meet 250 kTPA hydrogen availability at point of consumption. The additional
production is to account for additional hydrogen/ ammonia used for process heating, shipping fuel or general supply chain
losses.
2. Import terminal costs are identical for each as these have been sized for hydrogen delivered.
Units of NH3
LH2 MCH NH3
Measure (UoM) (Cracked)
Case No. 2 22 52 37
Hydrogen Delivered to Export
kTPA 303 538 375 276
Terminal1
Hydrogen Production USD MM 1120 1674 1299 1048
Hydrogenation / Liquefaction USD MM 2020 1218 646 521
First Fill USD MM - 675 - -
Export Terminal & Storage USD MM 2023 458 353 285
Import Terminal & Storage USD MM 1955 507 391 315
Dehydrogenation /
USD MM 777 1727 715 -
Regasification
Overall Value Chain CAPEX USD MM 7896 6258 3404 2169
Annual OPEX
USD MM 193 337 237 176
(Hydrogen Production)
Annual OPEX
USD MM 424 312 193 122
(Rest of Supply Chain)
USD/kg
Indicative Value Chain LCOH 6.09 5.41 3.25 2.16
H2-Delivered
Notes:
1. Net HGP hydrogen production required to meet 250 kTPA hydrogen availability at point of consumption. The additional
production is to account for additional hydrogen/ ammonia used for process heating, shipping fuel or general supply chain
losses.
2. The CAPEX values include owners costs of 15% and contingency of 20%. No owners costs are applied to toluene first fill
Figure 1.7 gives a graphical comparison of the CAPEX breakdown between the hydrogen carriers for the
import facilities. The large contributions of CAPEX for the MCH dehydration and the ammonia cracking
processes are significant for these carriers, whereas storage dominates the LH2 carrier import CAPEX.
3000
2500
2000
CAPEX (MMUSD)
1500
1000
500
0
LH2 MCH NH3 NH3 (Cracked)
This analysis has been repeated for value chains corresponding to 1,000 and 10,000 kTPA of hydrogen
delivered by 2040 and 2050, respectively. The timing and ultimate size of hydrogen import into Europe,
whether to Rotterdam or other European ports, is subject to the creation of the end-user markets for
hydrogen.
1.2 Carbon Emissions Comparisons
Whilst lifecycle emissions estimates have not been carried out in this study, CO2 emissions (termed
“carbon” in this report) from hydrogen production, export, transportation and import facilities have been
estimated for each carrier. It is further noted that the carbon emissions comparisons do not include CO2
emissions from the fuel and feedstock supply chain, and do not include other GHG emissions other than
CO2, such as estimates of methane losses in upstream gas production and transportation, which can be a
subject of further analyses.
160 0.64
Carbon Emissions (kTPA CO2)
120 0.48
80 0.32
40 0.16
0 0.00
MCH NH3 (Cracked) LH2 NH3
This study compared the import of hydrogen in the form of hydrogen carriers for marine transport vs import
of gaseous hydrogen (GH2) by pipeline. Three locations for gaseous hydrogen import into Rotterdam were
considered, namely Norway, Russia, and Algeria. Whilst imports from Russia were analysed to allow full
coverage of alternative pipeline gas imports considered viable when the study was first commissioned in
2021, it is recognised that, given the current geopolitical situation, this may not be a viable scenario in the
future.
The overall cost stack for GH2 import from Norway and Algeria are presented in Figure 1.9, which includes
hydrogen production via ATR from natural gas in the Hydrogen Generation Plant (HGP), and pipeline
transport to Rotterdam. This is compared with marine import from Saudi Arabia in Figure 1.10 for the various
import capacity scenarios.
The results indicates that in each of the scenario years modelled, hydrogen produced in Norway (2030)
and Algeria (2040, 2050), transported via pipeline to Rotterdam has a slightly more favourable LCOH
compared to marine import utilising hydrogen carriers. Algeria is more cost competitive than Norway at
larger parcel sizes as the variable costs dominate the LCOH and Algeria’s cheap natural gas price provides
a distinct commercial advantage. Although its pipeline LCOH contribution is higher than Norway’s, it’s low
cost of hydrogen production dominates for the larger cases. Figure 1.10 also shows that pipeline delivery
of hydrogen where possible is more favourable than marine import utilising hydrogen carriers. It also
provides the added benefit of being more technology mature and proven compared to the carrier marine
supply chains.
Figure 1.9 –Cheapest Hydrogen Production Transported to Rotterdam via Pipeline
3.50
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
3.00
0.48
2.50
2.00
1.64
1.50
2.57 1.13
1.00
0.50 0.85
0.68
0.00
250KTA (2030) 1000 KTA (2040) 10000 KTA (2050)
Norway Algeria Algeria
Production Pipeline
3.50
3.00
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
KSA (2030) KSA (2040) KSA (2050) Norway (2030) Algeria (2040) Algeria (2050)
Ammonia (cracked) Pipeline
3.50
3.00
LCOH (USD/ kg - H2 Delivered)
0.65
2.50
0.21
0.46
2.00 0.17
0.78 0.15
0.21
0.27
0.60 0.11
1.50 0.12 0.15
0.61
0.43 0.47 0.05
0.12
1.00 0.33
1.50
1.28 1.15
0.50 1.07 0.97
0.81
0.00
2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050
Cracked Uncracked
• Via maritime transportation, from five locations: Norway (Oslo), US (Houston), Argentina (Buenos
Aires), Qatar (Doha) and Saudi Arabia (Jeddah); and
UoM Specification
No of Cases 71
• ‘Pre-combustion’ captures the CO2 produced during the reforming and water-gas shift reaction,
i.e., from the process stream.
• ‘Post-combustion’ captures the CO2 produced during the combustion of the pressure swing
adsorption (PSA) tail gas and / or the natural gas (as supplementary fuel) in the ATR furnace.
The attractiveness of a particular CO2 source for capture depends on its volume, concentration and partial
pressure. The higher concentration of CO2 in the gas stream and the higher pressure makes the separation
easier. In an ATR-based hydrogen plant, depending on the detailed process configuration CO2 can be
captured from the shifted syngas (synthesis gas) and PSA tail gas. Figure 2.1 shows the pre-combustion
capture options for an ATR.
Carbon Capture
Steam
Natural Gas CO2
Autothermal Syngas
Pre-heat Shift Reactor Compression &
Oxygen Reformer Purification
Sequestration
Electricity
Carbon emissions associated with the ATR process are mostly within the process gas stream and exist at
higher concentrations, requiring only pre-combustion capture to achieve very high levels of overall CO2
capture. With pre-combustion capture the ATR pre-reformer furnace flue gas contains only very small
amounts of carbon, and some ATR process configurations are proposed that do not include an externally-
fired pre-reforming stage at all, instead relying on gas-gas heat exchangers to drive the first stage of the
reforming process. As a result, ATR plants are better suited to achieving higher capture rates at a lower
cost compared to SMR at full scale production. Although there are very limited operating references for
ATR hydrogen production with carbon capture and storage (CCS), there are several currently proposed
ATR plants that have target capture rates of > 95% - 97%.
Table 2.2 shows a summary of the HGP design basis. For the purposes of this study, variations in the CO2
content of the incoming natural gas were not considered. The specification used is typical of ‘grid gas’
requirements.
Table 2.2 – Design Basis Overview - HGP
UoM Specification
Notes:
1. Owner’s cost not applied to toluene first fill.
The general approach taken in the application of these uplifts is as follows:
1. CAPEX contingency is applied to the sum of all ISBL and OSBL components.
2. Project and Owner’s Cost is applied to the sum of all ISBL and OSBL components, except first fill.
The cost estimate has been developed on an instantaneous basis and represents costs as of fourth quarter
2021. The costs exclude all future inflation and escalation. CAPEX estimations are location specific,
assuming local fabrication and construction with local labour productivity factors and wage estimates taken
from Compass International Benchmark Rates for the construction industry. All CAPEX costs are
denominated in United States Dollars (USD).
The CAPEX for all units is sized to accommodate additional hydrogen produced which is consumed or lost
in the supply chain. The surplus production is to account for additional hydrogen / ammonia used for process
heating, shipping fuel or general supply chain losses. This is applicable for all cases apart from LH2 import
where storage, terminal and regasification facilities are sized based on hydrogen delivered as no additional
cargo is required to provide heat for regasification.
The pipeline CAPEX and OPEX were estimated using IHS Que$tor software (2021 Q1) estimating tool
which accounts for the following factored costs:
• Materials Cost;
• Construction Cost;
Notes:
1. Average Henry Hub Prices for 2019 & 2021 – IHS.
2. International Gas Union Wholesale Price Report (2020-2021).
3. Average TTF Prices for 2019 & 2021 – IHS.
4. KBR internal information.
2.3.6 What About Green Hydrogen?
Hydrogen produced from clean electricity is sometimes called “green” hydrogen. Around 53 kWh of clean
electricity is required for each kg of hydrogen produced and delivered at 30 barg from today’s electrolyser
systems, with reductions to around 50 kWh projected with technology advancements by 2030 [2] and further
improvements envisioned beyond that [3]. A likely business model for large shares of future green hydrogen
production involves electrolysers connected to the local electric grid due to the flexibility, optionality and
reliability that grid connections will provide, even if using primarily clean electricity supplied under contract
[4]. As such the cost to procure electricity for many future electrolyser systems is likely to depend at least
in part on future electricity markets in the vicinity of the electrolyser.
Analysis of future electricity markets and impacts on “green” hydrogen production cost is outside the scope
of this study. High-level analysis suggests these costs may not be too dissimilar to low-carbon hydrogen
production costs, however, if large economies of scale can be achieved in an optimum location.
2.3.7 Logistics
Distance from the export terminals in the production countries to the port of Rotterdam are illustrated below.
Table 2.5 – Distance to Port of Rotterdam
Algeria - - 2,5001
Notes:
1. 210 km is subsea (Medgaz to Spain) – source McKinsey Hydrogen Insights Report 2021.
2. Based on Europipe II, distance from Karsto to Dornum is 660 km long plus 210 km to Northern Netherlands.
3. Based on Yamal-Europe pipeline – pipeline running across Russia, Belarus, Poland, and Germany.
No. of Tanks 11 4 2
Notes:
1. Same values will be used for export and import terminals.
2. Separate tanks required for both MCH & Toluene at both export and import terminals.
Three sailing speeds were assessed for all ships to determine an optimum. Due to uncertainties regarding
the future size of NH3 cargo tank capacities, three capacities were analysed to capture the effect over the
economics of potential changes on the parcel size.
Table 2.7 – Shipping Comparisons (15 knots Sailing Speed)
80,000 / 130,000 /
Total Cargo Tank Capacity1 m3 128,000 85,000
175,000
No. Berths2 1 1 1
Notes:
1. Ship capacities have been modelled using current existing ship sizes or in the case of hydrogen, an estimate based on large
scale LH2 ship designs planned for construction before 2030.
2. Same values will be used for export and import terminals.
3. Theoretical shipping fuels are used for this study, assuming technical maturity by 2030.
4. Supply chain losses are based on internal estimates and industry data on potential for spillages, leaks, and residual cargo
left behind during transfers, loading and unloading
5. Percent of cargo used as shipping fuel varies based on distance travelled.
1 12 6.15 3.4 36
2 15 6.09 2.8 29
3 18 6.06 2.4 25
Notes:
1. The number of ships required, where fractional, can be hired for the required number of months during the year.
As shown in Table 3.1, the lowest LCOH case was for the quickest sailing speed of 18 knots, predominantly
due to the reduced number of ships required within the supply chain to adequately transport the LH2. The
sailing speed determines the minimum number of days for a round-trip of a cargo ship of a given size and,
therefore, the minimum number of ships required to deliver a total of 250 kTPA of hydrogen at the import
location. The minimum round-trip accounts for loading and unloading times, in-harbour manoeuvring time
as well as main sailing time.
There are two types of boil-off loss for transport of liquefied hydrogen by ship, namely natural boil-off and
forced boil-off losses. As with LNG carriers today, it is assumed that the propulsion fuel of LH2 and ammonia
carrier ships will be supplied by onboard cargo and this will be derived by natural boil-off and additional
forced boil-off to meet the propulsion system demand. A faster speed requires a greater daily hydrogen
consumption which increases variable costs while reducing fixed costs as less vessels are required.
Although the faster speed of 18 knots provides the lowest LCOH, a review of available shipping data shows
most bulk carriers sail at average speeds under 15 knots. This is because of in-built engine size / speed
limitations and to compensate for rough sea conditions which cause the ship speed to be decreased by
wind and wave resistance. Operating at higher speeds during these conditions would lead to high safety
risks and significantly more fuel consumption. Although the LCOH calculation models increased fuel
consumption at higher speeds, it doesn’t account for rough seas and turbulent conditions. For these
reasons, a speed of 15 knots has been adopted in the simulated cases, in line with industry experience.
Saudi Arabia
2 250 0.48 0.77 3.15 1.70 6.09 4,044
(Jeddah)
Argentina
6 250 0.50 1.14 3.25 1.94 6.83 4,269
(Buenos Aires)
Argentina
10 1,000 0.33 1.11 2.14 1.73 5.32 11,267
(Buenos Aires)
Saudi Arabia
12 1,000 0.31 0.75 2.08 1.50 4.64 10,672
(Jeddah)
Argentina
15 10,000 0.17 1.09 1.07 1.53 3.86 56,466
(Buenos Aires)
Saudi Arabia
17 10,000 0.16 0.72 1.04 1.31 3.23 53,487
(Jeddah)
There are several contributing factors that lead to Saudi Arabia being the cheapest export location, with
natural gas prices, moderate distance and local productivity factors considered as the key ones.
Export, which only includes carrier production, storage and jetty is the largest contributor to the overall
LCOH as shown in Figure 3.1. A significant component of the CAPEX for the export location is the cost of
liquefaction and cryogenic hydrogen storage which has a much higher CAPEX intensity compared to other
carriers.
Cost of construction varies from country to country dependent on labour rates (both skilled and unskilled)
and the location factor which takes into account import and productivity factors. Saudi Arabia and Qatar
have the lowest location factors and cheapest labour rates of the evaluated export locations.
In the production phase, the main driver of costs is the OPEX for the hydrogen generation plant and this is
driven in part by the natural gas price, which is cheaper in Qatar and Saudi Arabia (see Table 2.4) than for
the other locations.
Skilled and unskilled labour rates are taken from Compass International Publications benchmark rates. In
the absence of Qatari labour rate data, Saudi Arabian labour rates were utilised, expected to be of a similar
/ good approximation.
Saudi Arabia has the lowest LCOH for production and supply chain as shown in Figure 3.1 with a combined
value of 6.09 USD/kg H2 delivered in 2030. An alternative, more detailed breakdown of LCOH is also shown
in Figure 3.2.
8.00
7.00
1.52
LCOH (USD/ KG - H2 Delivered)
6.00 1.51
0.14 1.51 1.51
1.50
5.00 0.74 0.59
0.80
2.93 0.56
4.00
Figure 3.2 – LH2 LCOH Breakdown for Varying Export Location, 250 kTPA Delivered Hydrogen
8.00
0.25
7.00
0.24
1.27 0.24 0.24
6.00 1.27 0.23
0.14 1.27
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
1.27
0.73 1.27
5.00 0.74
0.59
0.80
0.56
4.00 0.95 0.81
2.20 0.95
0.90
3.00
1.98 2.04
0.51
1.94 1.88
2.00
8.00
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
7.00
1.52
6.00 1.51 1.51 1.51
0.14
1.00 1.50
5.00 0.74 0.99 0.59
0.14 1.00 0.80 0.99
2.93 0.56 0.99
4.00 0.74 0.59
2.05 0.80
0.56
3.00 2.94 2.84
2.90 2.78
2.14 2.03
2.00 2.12 2.02
2.75 2.51
1.00 1.64 1.66
1.45 1.44 1.31 1.11 1.25 1.06
0.00
Oslo, Oslo, Buenos Buenos Houston, Houston, Doha, Doha, Jeddah, Jeddah,
Norway Norway Aires, Aires, US US Qatar Qatar Saudi Saudi
(250KTA) (1,000KTA) Argentina Argentina (250KTA) (1,000KTA) (250KTA) (1,000KTA) Arabia Arabia
(250KTA) (1,000KTA) (250KTA) (1,000KTA)
Figure 3.4 – LH2 LCOH Comparison for Varying Export Locations, 10,000 kTPA Delivered
Hydrogen
4.50
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
4.00 0.50
3.50 0.14 0.50
0.50 0.50
3.00 1.20 0.74 0.50
0.59 0.80
2.50 0.56
2.00 1.37 1.23
1.50 1.36 1.29
1.00 2.28
Argentina
20 250 0.72 1.89 2.11 1.21 5.93 2,376
(Buenos Aires)
Saudi Arabia
22 250 0.71 1.35 2.10 1.25 5.41 2,351
(Jeddah)
Argentina
25 1,000 0.47 1.85 1.49 1.12 4.93 7,198
(Buenos Aires)
Saudi Arabia
27 1,000 0.47 1.31 1.48 1.15 4.42 7,123
(Jeddah)
Argentina
30 10,000 0.24 1.81 0.89 1.03 3.96 49,687
(Buenos Aires)
Saudi Arabia
32 10,000 0.23 1.28 0.89 1.06 3.46 49,164
(Jeddah)
For MCH, the hydrogen gas production requirement is increased compared to other carrier supply chains,
primarily due to the dehydrogenation process at the import facility which requires significant heat input and
consumes about 42% of the hydrogen produced (or 52% assuming 80% heating efficiency). Increased
hydrogen production requirement leads to an uplift in natural gas requirements, resulting in an increased
effect of natural gas pricing in the overall LCOH between locations as shown in Figure 3.5 and
Figure 3.5Figure 3.6
Figure 3.5 – MCH LCOH Comparison for Varying Export Locations, 250 kTPA Delivered Hydrogen
9.00
8.00
1.35
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
7.00
0.16
6.00
1.61
1.35 1.35
5.00 1.35 1.35
0.52 0.63
4.00 0.83 0.67
1.41 1.35
3.00
1.33 1.33
5.00
2.00
2.69 2.60
1.00 2.07 2.06
0.00
Oslo, Norway Houston, US Buenos Aires, Doha, Qatar Jeddah, Saudi
(250KTA) (250KTA) Argentina (250KTA) Arabia (250KTA)
(250KTA)
A further breakdown according to the constituent values that make up the levelised cost for production,
export, transport and import is shown in Figure 3.6.
9.00
8.00 0.31
1.04
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
7.00
0.16
0.30
6.00 0.31
1.31 0.31
0.31 0.31
5.00 1.04 1.04
1.04 1.04
0.92 0.52 0.63
4.00 0.28 0.27 0.83 0.67
1.13 1.08 0.27 0.27
3.00
3.21 1.06 1.06
0.91 0.96
2.00
0.96 0.96
1.02 0.93
1.00 0.39 0.39
0.88 0.76 0.72 0.71 0.71
0.00
Norway (Oslo) USA (Houston) Argentina (Buenos Qatar (Doha) Saudi Arabia
Aires) (Jeddah)
Norway
33 250 0.53 2.06 0.59 0.26 3.45 967
(Oslo)
USA
34 250 0.48 1.03 0.55 0.41 2.46 867
(Houston)
Argentina
35 250 (Buenos 0.46 1.01 0.54 0.50 2.50 833
Aires)
Qatar
36 250 0.45 0.73 0.53 0.56 2.27 821
(Doha)
Saudi Arabia
37 250 0.44 0.71 0.52 0.49 2.16 806
(Jeddah)
Norway
38 1,000 0.35 2.01 0.39 0.23 2.98 2,553
(Oslo)
USA
39 1,000 0.32 0.99 0.36 0.33 2.00 2,287
(Houston)
Argentina
40 1,000 (Buenos 0.30 0.99 0.35 0.41 2.05 2,198
Aires)
Qatar
41 1,000 0.30 0.70 0.35 0.45 1.80 2,166
(Doha)
Saudi Arabia
42 1,000 0.29 0.68 0.34 0.40 1.72 2,127
(Jeddah)
Norway
43 10,000 0.18 1.97 0.20 0.20 2.54 12,794
(Oslo)
USA
44 10,000 0.16 0.96 0.18 0.29 1.59 11,462
(Houston)
Argentina
45 10,000 (Buenos 0.15 0.96 0.18 0.36 1.65 11,018
Aires)
Qatar
46 10,000 0.15 0.68 0.18 0.39 1.39 10,855
(Doha)
Saudi Arabia
47 10,000 0.15 0.66 0.17 0.35 1.33 10,660
(Jeddah)
As per MCH and LH2 export location comparisons, the same location specific contributing factors, including
labour rates, productivity factors, sailing distance to Rotterdam and, more importantly, natural gas feedstock
price, lead Saudi Arabia to be the lowest export location when utilising NH3 as a hydrogen carrier with a
production and export CAPEX of $806 million for a supply chain of 250 kTPA.
When utilising NH3 as a hydrogen carrier, and consuming NH3 at the end user without the cracking
requirement, this leads to lower cost contribution for the export and import facilities, and results in the
production component of LCOH to be larger than the export, transport and import contributions combined
as shown in Figure 3.7.
4.00
3.50
0.16
0.06
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
3.00 0.63
2.50 0.17
0.17
0.19 0.23 0.17
2.00 0.17
0.29 0.23
0.60 0.63
1.50 0.63 0.61
2.59
1.00
1.51 1.47
0.50 1.18 1.15
0.00
Oslo, Norway Houston, US Buenos Aires, Doha, Qatar Jeddah, Saudi
(250KTA) (250KTA) Argentina (250KTA) (250KTA) Arabia (250KTA)
A further breakdown according to the constituent values that make up the levelised cost for production,
export, transport, and import is shown in Figure 3.8.
Figure 3.8 – Ammonia LCOH Breakdown for Varying Export Location, 250 kTPA Delivered
Hydrogen
4.00
3.50 0.02
0.14
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
0.06
0.18
3.00
0.45
2.50 0.02 0.02
0.15
0.48 0.15 0.02
0.19 0.23 0.15 0.02
2.00 0.20 0.25 0.15
0.29 0.23
0.40 0.39 0.25 0.24
1.50
1.58 0.38 0.37
0.49 0.52
1.00 0.52 0.50
0.53 0.49
0.50 0.21 0.20
0.53 0.48 0.46 0.45 0.44
0.00
Norway (Oslo) USA (Houston) Argentina (Buenos Qatar (Doha) Saudi Arabia
Aires) (Jeddah)
Figure 3.9 – NH3 LCOH Comparison for Varying Export Locations, 10,000 kTPA Delivered
Hydrogen
3.00
2.50 0.05
0.06
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
0.29
2.00
0.06 0.06
1.50 0.14 0.12
0.06
0.34 0.30 0.17 0.05
0.14
1.00 2.15
0.34 0.33
0.00
Oslo, Norway Buenos Aires, Houston, US Doha, Qatar Jeddah, Saudi
(10,000KTA) Argentina (10,000KTA) (10,000KTA) Arabia
(10,000KTA) (10,000KTA)
USA
49 250 0.60 1.39 1.02 0.67 3.67 1,079
(Houston)
Argentina
50 250 (Buenos 0.57 1.38 1.01 0.79 3.76 1,042
Aires)
Saudi Arabia
52 250 0.55 0.95 0.98 0.77 3.25 999
(Jeddah)
USA
54 1,000 0.39 1.34 0.67 0.55 2.97 2,847
(Houston)
Argentina
55 1,000 (Buenos 0.38 1.35 0.67 0.66 3.06 2,749
Aires)
Saudi Arabia
57 1,000 0.36 0.92 0.64 0.64 2.57 2,636
(Jeddah)
USA
59 10,000 0.20 1.30 0.34 0.48 2.32 14,266
(Houston)
Argentina
60 10,000 (Buenos 0.19 1.32 0.33 0.58 2.43 13,776
Aires)
Saudi Arabia
62 10,000 0.18 0.89 0.32 0.56 1.96 13,212
(Jeddah)
Figure 3.10 – Cracked NH3 LCOH Comparison for Varying Export Locations, 250 kTPA Delivered
Hydrogen
6.00
5.00
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
0.63
0.09
4.00
0.78
0.66 0.67
3.00 0.67
0.26 0.31 0.65
0.40 0.31
0.77 0.82
2.00 0.81 0.78
3.40
0.00
Oslo, Norway Houston, US Buenos Aires, Doha, Qatar Jeddah, Saudi
(250KTA) (250KTA) Argentina (250KTA) (250KTA) Arabia (250KTA)
6.00
5.00
0.14
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
0.49
0.09
4.00 0.23
0.55 0.14 0.15
0.52 0.53 0.14
0.63 0.14
3.00 0.26 0.31 0.53
0.51
0.27 0.33 0.40 0.31
0.50 0.48 0.34 0.32
2.00
2.12 0.48 0.46
0.66 0.71
0.70 0.68
1.00 0.73 0.67
0.28 0.27
0.66 0.60 0.57 0.57 0.55
0.00
Norway (Oslo) USA (Houston) Argentina (Buenos Qatar (Doha) Saudi Arabia
Aires) (Jeddah)
LCOH-CAPEX LCOH-OPEX(NG) LCOH-OPEX (Other) Export- CAPEX
Export- OPEX Transport- OPEX Import- CAPEX Import- OPEX
Following this initial comparison between the various carriers, a comparison on emissions has also been
carried out which are described in Section Error! Reference source not found..
3.6 Hydrogen Import by Pipeline
This scenario compares the marine import of hydrogen, using various carriers, with the costs of hydrogen
import by pipeline into Rotterdam from locations including Russia (Yamal), Norway and Algeria, which
allows a comparison to be made with marine import options. The onshore pipeline sizing was carried out
using PIPESIM, with hydrogen inlet pressures of 80 barg, typical of existing European gas transmission
infrastructure, and installation of compression stations where the outlet pressure dropped below 40 barg.
Line sizes were set so that compressor stations were included every ~100 km. CAPEX and OPEX estimates
for the hydrogen pipelines and booster compressor stations were calculated using IHS Que$tor software
(2021 Q1). OPEX costs include imported electric power for pipeline compressor stations, rather than self-
consumption of hydrogen in gas turbine (GT) drivers, using Que$tor default values of USD 80/MWhr.
Compressor stations were sized based on an n+1 sparing philosophy and limiting the maximum motor size
for each compressor to ~50 MW. This is a significant portion of the onshore OPEX for pipeline
transportation.
Production Pipeline
Capacity Total LCOH Total
Export CAPEX
Scenario LCOH-C LCOH-O LCOH-C LCOH-O
Location
(MMUSD)
(kTPA) ($/kg H2) ($/kg H2) ($/kg H2) ($/kg H2) ($/kg H2)
Russia
63 250 0.55 0.79 1.83 2.79 5.96 5,607
(Yamal)
Norway
64 250 0.53 2.04 0.14 0.35 3.05 694
(Oslo)
65 250 Algeria 0.43 0.58 1.04 1.64 3.70 3,307
Russia
66 1000 0.36 0.76 1.49 1.38 3.99 11,074
(Yamal)
Norway
67 1000 0.35 1.99 0.09 0.15 2.58 1,200
(Oslo)
68 1000 Algeria 0.29 0.56 0.84 0.80 2.49 6,450
Russia
69 10000 0.18 0.73 1.41 0.60 2.93 48,428
(Yamal)
Norway
70 10000 0.18 1.95 0.07 0.05 2.25 4,118
(Oslo)
71 10000 Algeria 0.14 0.54 0.79 0.34 1.82 27,691
In the above table, the 250kTPA case is delivered via a 14”NB onshore / 12” NB offshore hydrogen pipeline
while the 1,000kTPA and 10,000kTPA cases are delivered via 24”NB onshore / 22”NB offshore and 56”NB
onshore / 54”NB offshore hydrogen pipelines respectively.
According to Hydrogen Council and McKinsey & Company (2021), CAPEX for onshore transmission
networks including compression ranges between $2.2-4.5 million per km for newly built hydrogen pipelines.
Our initial modelling indicates higher values of $1.37-11.8 million per km, which covers 14-56" line sizes
[6].
When utilising pipeline transport, there is not only the reduced need for hydrogen carrier production,
storage, transport and liberation at import, there is also a reduced hydrogen capacity requirement as the
additional self-consumption throughout the supply is minimal / reduced. Figure 3.12 demonstrates that
although Norway has significantly greater LCOH for the production of low-carbon hydrogen owing primarily
to higher natural gas pricing, the considerably shorter pipeline distance to Rotterdam versus Russia (Yamal)
or Algeria, gives it the lowest LCOH in 2030. With larger hydrogen volumes in 2040 and 2050, the pipeline
costings see a large decline due to the reverse square relationship of pipeline diameter to cross-sectional
area, implying that a larger throughput and a wider pipeline result in cheaper cost hydrogen throughput
volume. This relationship, in addition to the lower price of natural gas, results in Algeria being the lowest
LCOH for piped hydrogen imports into Rotterdam for 2040 and 2050.
5.00
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050 2030 2040 2050
Russia Norway Algeria
Production Pipeline
Comparing the cheapest marine export location and carriers for the 2030-2050 modelled cases (Saudi
Arabia cracked ammonia), as shown in Figure 3.13, shows that locally produced low-carbon gaseous
hydrogen piped from its export location has a lower LCOH compared to marine import for 2030 and 2050.
Figure 3.13 – Cheapest H2 via Pipeline vs Cheapest Marine Import
3.50
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
KSA (2030) KSA (2040) KSA (2050) Norway Algeria Algeria
(2030) (2040) (2050)
Ammonia (cracked) Pipeline
160 0.64
120 0.48
Carbon Emissions (kTPA CO2)
80 0.32
40 0.16
0 0.00
MCH NH3 (Cracked) LH2 NH3
105 0.42
Carbon Emissions (kTPA CO2)
35 0.14
0 0.00
Argentina Qatar USA Saudi Arabia Norway
(Buenos Aires) (Doha) (Houston) (Jeddah) (Oslo)
A larger difference in supply chain emissions is seen when using MCH as a carrier, due to the consumption
of LNG as a marine fuel. No carbon abatement is assumed when utilising LNG as a marine fuel and carbon
emissions associated with transport of the MCH carrier outweigh the emissions from hydrogen and carrier
production, as shown below in Figure 4.3.
800
700
Carbon Emissions (kTPA CO2)
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Argentina Qatar USA Saudi Arabia Norway
(Buenos Aires) (Doha) (Houston) (Jeddah) (Oslo)
H2 Production Shipping
Carbon emissions for the alternative hydrogen pipeline options have not been evaluated as part of this
study. Our cost estimating has been carried out on the basis of motor-driven compression, with power
import from the local grids in Russia, Northern and Southern Europe respectively. The carbon intensity of
imported electrical power is also not considered in analysis of the pipeline cases.
Units of
NH3
Measure LH2 MCH NH3
(Cracked)
(UoM)
Case No. 2 22 37 52
Hydrogen Delivered to Export
kTPA 303 538 276 375
Terminal1
Hydrogen Production CAPEX USD MM 1120 1674 1048 1299
Hydrogenation / Liquefaction
USD MM 2020 1218 521 646
CAPEX
Toluene First Fill USD MM - 675 - -
Export Terminal & Storage
USD MM 2023 458 285 353
CAPEX
Import Terminal & Storage
USD MM 1955 507 315 391
CAPEX
Dehydrogenation /
USD MM 777 1727 - 715
Regasification CAPEX
Overall Value Chain CAPEX USD MM 7896 6258 2169 3404
Annual OPEX
USD MM 193 337 176 237
(Hydrogen Production)
Annual OPEX
USD MM 424 312 122 193
(Rest of Supply Chain)
Indicative Value Chain USD/kg
6.09 5.41 2.16 3.25
LCOH H2 Delivered
Notes:
2. Net HGP hydrogen production required to meet 250 kTPA hydrogen availability at point of consumption. The additional
production is to account for additional hydrogen / ammonia used for process heating, shipping fuel or general supply chain
losses.
3. The CAPEX values include owners’ costs of 15% and contingency of 20%. No owners’ costs are applied to first fill.
LH2 MCH
Regasification Hydrogen
10% Production Dehydrogenation
28% Hydrogen
14%
Production
27%
Import
Terminal & Liquefaction
Storage 25%
25%
Import Terminal
& Storage
8% Hydrogenation
19%
Export Terminal & Export Terminal &
Storage Storage
26% First Fill
7%
11%
• Hydrogen Production: Hydrogen Generation Plant including carbon capture and compression;
• Hydrogenation / Ammonia Synthesis / Liquefaction: Carrier production & synthesis;
• Export Terminal & Storage: Export storage facilities and export jetty;
• Import Terminal & Storage: Import jetty and storage facilities; and
• Dehydrogenation: Related equipment for regasification / liberation of hydrogen at the import
facility.
The HGP comparison is presented in Table 5.2. The following observations are concluded from the
summarised data:
• LH2 as a carrier requires the least hydrogen production to satisfy the 250 kTPA liberated hydrogen
target at the import terminal. This contributes to the lowest hydrogen production CAPEX, natural
gas consumption and CO2 emissions. However, it also requires significant CAPEX for liquefaction
at the export terminal and storage at both terminals, resulting in the largest overall supply chain
CAPEX and LCOH.
• Cracked ammonia requires a larger HGP than ammonia or LH2. The higher hydrogen production
is driven by the substantial hydrogen consumption at the import terminal cracking step, at an
estimated heat requirement of 23 MJ/kg H2 processed.
• The specific HGP CAPEX per kTPA of hydrogen is calculated by dividing the HGP CAPEX
component by the hydrogen production rate from the HGP. The LH2 carrier has the highest specific
HGP CAPEX per kTPA of hydrogen. The MCH carrier has a lower specific CAPEX per kTPA of
hydrogen compared to both cracked and uncracked NH3. This indicates that there is an economy
of scale advantage in running a larger HGP.
Table 5.2 – HGP Comparison per Carrier
(250 kTPA H2 Delivered, Saudi Arabia)
NH3
UoM LH2 MCH NH3
(Cracked)
Hydrogen Delivered
kTPA 303 538 276 375
to HGP BL1
Hydrogen
USD MM 1120 1674 1048 1299
Generation CAPEX
Specific HGP
USD MM/kTPA
CAPEX per kTPA 3.70 3.11 3.80 3.46
H2
Hydrogen Produced
HGP Power Import MWh/t H2 3.53 3.53 3.53 3.53
HGP Natural Gas
t/t H2 3.09 3.09 3.09 3.09
Consumption
Net HGP CO2
kTPA 85 151 77 105
Emissions
Notes:
1. Net HGP hydrogen production required to meet 250 kTPA hydrogen availability at point of consumption.
• MCH has the highest supply chain heat requirement due to the amount of energy required to
liberate hydrogen. In this report, it is considered that this energy will come from hydrogen itself.
However, other alternatives can be used such as natural gas which will provide a lower OPEX,
albeit at the cost of higher carbon emissions.
• For the ammonia case, heat for dehydrogenation and power for synthesis (driven mainly by
compressor duty) require a moderate amount of energy input.
Table 5.3 – Supply Chain Power / Heat Summary per Carrier
(250 kTPA H2 Delivered, Saudi Arabia)
NH3
UoM LH2 MCH NH3
(Cracked)
Hydrogen Produced kTPA 303 538 276 375
Hydrogenation Power MJ/kg H2 36 1.8 13.5 13.5
Hydrogenation Power MW 361 32 123 167
Hydrogenation Heat MJ/kg H2 - - -
Dehydrogenation Power MJ/kg H2 0.5 7.2 - 4.3
Dehydrogenation Power MW 5 128 53
Dehydrogenation Heat MJ/kg H2 - 51.2 - 23
• Export terminal CAPEX is purely driven by the hydrogen carrier chosen. CAPEX is low for
ammonia in which a smaller export terminal facility is required due to lower refrigeration
requirements compared to LH2. CAPEX is higher for MCH compared to ammonia, due to the
toluene hydrogenation process and a much larger export terminal facility to cater for both MCH
and toluene storage.
• Although MCH requires a simpler storage solution than ammonia, the total number of storage
tanks is eleven times that for ammonia. This is due not only to the need to store both MCH and
toluene in separate tanks, but also due to the carrier properties which are discussed further in
Section 6.4.
• Export terminal CAPEX is higher for LH2 as expected because of the high-cost of hydrogen
liquefaction, storage, boil-off handling and loading facilities.
NH3
UoM LH2 MCH NH3
(Cracked)
Storage Vessel
m3/vessel 4,000 40,000 50,000 65,000
Physical Volume
• Shipping OPEX is directly correlated with carrier choice. Though the operating costs of delivering
MCH are low, a fleet of 85,000 m3 vessels will require significantly more voyages due to the
additional hydrogen production needed at the import terminal for dehydrogenation and low
hydrogen carrying capacity of MCH compared to its peers. This correlates to higher shipping /
freight costs than ammonia, per ton of hydrogen transported. Also, the freight rate takes into
account the additional cost of LNG as a shipping fuel, while the other carriers do not as their
respective cargoes are consumed.
• Ammonia has a fleet of smaller, 80,000 m3 carrier vessels. However, the refrigerated nature of
liquid ammonia transportation at circa -33°C drives the fixed and operating costs upwards
compared to a MCH / toluene vessel of similar size. As noted previously, this study assumes future
demand on ammonia marine transport will lead to larger vessel cargo sizes of up to 130,000 m3
and 175,000 m3 in 2040 and 2050, respectively, which results in economies of scale.
• It is assumed that LH2 will have similar parcel sizes to LNG as demand increases for marine
transportation. However, LH2 has substantially higher shipping charter rates than MCH or NH3 due
to the much greater technological demand associated with transporting liquid hydrogen at circa -
253°C. Additionally, its variable costs (fuel consumption) is higher due to the lower density of LH2,
which limits how many tonnes of hydrogen is transported on each voyage.
NH3
UoM LH2 MCH NH3
(Cracked)
Hydrogen
kTPA 303 538 276 375
Transported
Cargo Transported kTPA 303 8,670 1,560 2,100
Marine Vessel
m3 128,000 85,000 80,622 80,622
Parcel Size
Monthly Charter
USD/month 3,100,000 783,000 990,000 990,000
Rate1
Number of Marine
No./yr 3 11 2.5 3.3
Vessels
Total Fuel kTPA H2
21,800 - 12,100 16,400
Consumption equivalent
Total Supply Chain
% 10% 2% 5% 5%
Losses2
Marine Fuel
kTPA LNG - 134 - -
Consumption LNG
Marine Vessel Fuel Type Hydrogen LNG Ammonia Ammonia
$/MT H2
Freight Costs3 462 429 210 210
Transported
Notes:
1. Charter rates are based on KBR internal estimates – which is a factor of the marine vessel capital cost and historical rates.
Due to lack of available data for large hydrogen carriers, a 160,000 m3 LNG vessel is used with a 20% reduction in capacity
and 20% uplift in capital costs due to increased insulation and handling of a fluid at more extreme temperature/ pressure.
2. Supply chain losses refer to both outbound and inbound legs, including losses due to loading / unloading, spillage etc.
3. Freight costs do not include the cost of fuel for LH2 and NH3 as its own cargo is consumed, with the additional hydrogen
production cost accounted for in the levelised cost of hydrogen delivered. Port and Suez Canal charges also estimated to
calculate freight rates.
• Import terminal CAPEX is the greatest for the liquefied hydrogen carrier owing to the requirement
for expensive cryogenic hydrogen storage vessels and cryogenic offloading equipment and piping.
• Storage of toluene and MCH is relatively simple and low-cost; however, the dehydrogenation step
carries a high CAPEX of close to USD 1.7 billion alone. KBR Consulting sees opportunity to reduce
such high, emerging CAPEX items as the individual technologies continue to undergo
development and evolution.
Figure 5.3 below gives a graphical comparison of the breakdown of CAPEX of the import facilities of the
hydrogen carriers. The main CAPEX contributors for MCH and ammonia are dehydrogenation and cracking
processes, respectively, whereas storage dominates the import CAPEX for LH2 carrier.
3000
2500
2000
CAPEX (MMUSD)
1500
1000
500
0
LH2 MCH NH3 NH3 (Cracked)
Import Jetty Import Storage Regasification / Liberation Owner's Cost Contingency
• The energy data suggests that ammonia is a much more efficient material to store and transport
hydrogen than either MCH or LH2. Ammonia transport infrastructure is better established
compared to its peers, with safety aspects including toxicity well covered in storage, handling and
transportation.
• MCH and its partner, toluene, are also toxic; however, its low volatility and ambient temperature
handling, and its relatively high liquid density make it an ideal material to move around compared
to other carriers.
• The trading of similarly toxic chemicals and transport fuels is performed regularly and poses no
distinct technology or design barrier.
Table 5.7 – Hydrogen Carriers Energy Density Comparison
Other considerations considered as an impediment in the use of ammonia as a hydrogen carrier include
safety and toxicity issues, both actual and perceived. Hazards concerning ammonia are comparable to
alternative fuels such as gasoline and need to be controlled by a combination of technical and regulatory
measures.
In contrast to MCH, ammonia can be used directly without decomposition in several applications, including
engines, gas turbines and fuel cells. Research continues in this area as the elimination of the expensive,
energy intensive and low-TRL dehydrogenation step will substantially improve the economics of an
ammonia hydrogen carrier supply chain. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) has developed and tested an
ammonia cracking process that integrates with an adjacent power station for the reaction heat required.
The key advantage of such scheme is the efficient recycle of gas turbine waste heat to enable sufficiently
high ammonia decomposition reaction temperature.
Table 6.1 compares the attributes of the three hydrogen carriers evaluated in the study.
The hydrogen molecule exists in two forms, namely ortho and para, distinguished by the nuclear spin of
the individual atoms. At room temperature, hydrogen is made up of a 75 / 25 ortho to para mix. At
cryogenic temperatures the low-energy para hydrogen becomes the dominant species (liquid hydrogen at
20K is 99.8% para hydrogen). Conversion of ortho hydrogen to para hydrogen is a very slow process
which can last for several days and slowly releases heat. The slow release of heat from the liquid
hydrogen storage results in excessive losses of hydrogen through boil-off. The conversion can be
accelerated using a paramagnetic catalyst, such as iron or chromic oxide or nickel-based catalysts within
the liquefaction plant.
The pre-cooling is carried out to cool hydrogen below its Joule-Thomson inversion temperature (80K).
Nitrogen is the only fluid cycle used commercially; however, Mixed Refrigerants (MR) and LNG have been
considered at a concept level [8].
During LH2 storage, boil-off is expected which may result in loss of hydrogen. To reduce the losses, it is
sensible to locate the liquefaction and regasification plants close to export / import storage tanks so that
the boil--off gas can be recycled into the liquefaction or regasification trains. However, during shipping it is
likely that hydrogen boil-off will be vented to atmosphere and / or used as marine fuel to maintain a safe
pressure in the storage tanks. This loss will need to be accounted for to ensure that the required 250 kTPA
LH2 is obtained at the end of the process. For the purpose of this study, LH2 carrier vessels are assumed
to be comparable to LNG carrier vessels which can imply that it may be economic to install onboard boil-
off compression and recovery for larger marine vessels.
KBR’s NASA cryogenic hydrogen team has reported a boil-off rate of <0.2% per day for their LH2 tank at
Cape Canaveral.
Figure 6.3 shows a 3,800 m3, 270 Te LH2 tank for NASA, currently the largest in the world. The decision to
install boil-off compressors is dependent on storage residence time and the acceptable losses within the
system.
The transportation of LH2 by ship is an emerging technology, which may see growth in scale and technology
advancements as the green hydrogen market develops.
In Kobe, Japan, the world’s first liquid hydrogen import terminal is being built by Iwatani and Kawasaki
Heavy Industries (HyTouch Kobe). To supply the Kobe terminal development and a ‘pilot’ LH2 value chain,
permission has been granted to build LH2 ‘test’ tanker ships (Figure 6.4). These will ship liquid hydrogen
from Australia to Japan. Initially this is a 1,250 m3 ship, the Suiso Frontier (1 x 1250 m3 Type C tank) with
plans to build a 160,000 m3 ship (4 off 40,000 m3 tanks). The ship designs require insulation between the
inner and outer tanks in order to minimise boil-off and increase volumetric efficiency.
LH2’s main drawback as a means of transport is its low volumetric energy density compared with
ammonia, limiting the amount of hydrogen per ship, and the boil-off losses that occur with every day of
storage. While liquefaction is a proven and commercialised technology, liquid hydrogen shipping and
large-scale storage – which requires suppliers to manage the boil-off losses – remain in the early stages
of deployment.
In LNG carriers, nitrogen is used in spaces around the cargo containment system such as barrier or annular
spaces. It is not possible to use nitrogen in such places on an LH2 carrier, as nitrogen becomes liquid at -
196°C at atmospheric pressure so it would condense if in contact with a surface at LH2 temperature. Helium
is the only practical gas for inerting an LH2 system; unfortunately, this is a very expensive product, and
would be very challenging to produce onboard, if possible, at all.
The properties of hydrogen create additional challenges for leak prevention, leak detection and ignition
protection. For example, a different standard is required for “certified safe” electrical equipment on LH2
carriers – both fixed and portable. In addition, in the event of a cargo fire, the low luminosity of visibility of
a hydrogen flame can cause problems for fire detection. The high flame velocity can lead to detonation and
an associated shockwave.
Various class societies have been carrying out Approvals in Principal (AIP) based on the International
Maritime Organisation (IMO) “Interim Recommendations for the Carriage of Liquefied Hydrogen in Bulk”
published in 2016. Class NK did an AIP for a 40,000 m3 LH2 vessel earlier this year and Lloyd’s Register
gave an AIP to Samsung Heavy Industries for a 160,000 m3 vessel. Whether these get built is another
issue as companies may not want to overcommit too early whilst rules are still being developed, along with
the commercial risk of ordering too early and having an underutilised large hydrogen carrier due to the
infrastructure and market around the concept still developing to handle such large volumes.
Although there may be opportunities at the import location to utilise the cold energy that the LH2 carries,
this has not been considered in the LH2 supply chain model for this project.
6.2.2 Hydrogen Safety and Environmental Considerations
The hydrogen liquefaction process involves process pressures that are midway between those for MCH
and ammonia synthesis. The moderately high pressures and cryogenic temperatures both result in
relatively significant flammable hazards compared to the low-pressure hydrogen applications. These are
discussed in the following subsections.
Overall, the hydrogen liquefaction plant and terminals should be considered as high hazard areas similar
to those for an LNG process and terminal. The risks due to fires and explosions for hydrogen will likely be
higher than for the MCH process and significantly higher than the ammonia process. However, the facilities
will lack the toxic hazards of the ammonia process.
6.2.2.1 Ignition and Fires
Hydrogen has a very broad flammability range (4 to 75 vol% in air) and low minimum ignition energy
(0.019 mJ), similar to acetylene. This means that compared to methane (4-14 vol% flammability range and
0.2 mJ minimum ignition energy)- see Figure 6.6. Hydrogen is both easier to ignite and can burn in more
confined scenarios where a methane leak may become oversaturated quickly. It will be rare that the
hydrogen Upper Flammability Limit (UFL) will be exceeded, except in significantly confined spaces.
The low ignition energy makes hydrogen significantly more susceptible to corona and frictional ignition,
meaning that hydrogen releases are more likely to self-ignite in air than methane releases.
Hydrogen flames have low surface emissive powers which means that they typically have shorter radiative
effect distances than equivalent hydrocarbon flames. This should result in lower probability of spray and jet
fires causing fatalities and plant damage over long distances. However, hydrogen flames do burn hotter
than hydrocarbon flames and, thus, escalation can still occur. All fire hazard scenarios will be subject to
conventional consequence modelling at a later design stage.
6.2.2.2 Explosions
Hydrogen is significantly more prone to explosion than alkanes, such as methane, with much faster laminar
flame front velocities, both in terms of producing deflagrations rather than zero or low overpressure flash
fires and being more prone to detonation (supersonic flame front explosion) with very little required
turbulence.
This low deflagration-detonation transition means that much less plant obstruction or vapour cloud
turbulence is required for significantly destructive explosions to occur than for a similar LNG leak, although
the overpressures experienced will depend on the volume of the cloud ignited.
When this is combined with the low ignition energy and higher likelihood of self-ignition, there is likely to be
a higher probability of hydrogen explosion than from hydrocarbon leaks under equivalent conditions.
However, there are sufficient variable factors involved that a detailed risk assessment will need to be carried
out in order to provide a complete risk picture, particularly when this explosion risk is compared to the non-
equivalent toxicity risk of ammonia.
6.2.3 LH2 - Recommendations
• The fewer number of trains required to produce LH2, the more feasible the process. Scale up from
current plant sizes of 30 TPD is a challenge.
• The execution risk for a viable LH2 infrastructure escalates with the increase in LH2 train size.
• Planned hydrogen liquefaction facilities should be verified for established train size and proven for
increased scalability.
To recover uncracked ammonia contained in the gas mixture, an absorption column is used which exploits
the high solubility of ammonia in water. The ammonia-rich water is passed to the stripping column in which
the solution is heated, and ammonia is released. The ammonia content in the effluent is stripped down from
8.0% to 0.06% by exploiting the high solubility of ammonia in water.
• Ammonia is a colourless, highly irritating gas with a pungent and suffocating odour at room
temperature and pressure.
• Ammonia also exists as a colourless liquid. Its vapour pressure is 1 atm at -33.6°C, 5 atm at
+4.7°C, 8 atm at 20°C, and 10 atm at 25.7°C. At 50.1°C, the vapour pressure is 20 atm.
• Ammonia vapour at the boiling point of -33°C will have a vapour density of approximately 70% of
the density of ambient air. However, ammonia and air can, under certain conditions, form mixtures
that are denser than ambient air, as a result of the mixture being at a lower temperature caused
by the evaporation of cold ammonia. An ammonia cloud formed by an accidental release of
ammonia may contain a mist of liquid ammonia and its density may be greater than that of air.
• 15 - 28% ammonia by volume is typically considered as the flammability limit of ammonia mixtures
with air. The flammability limits of ammonia in oxygen are 15 - 79%.
• Ammonia is not highly flammable with a high minimum ignition energy (100 mJ); however, it will
burn and can explode if ignited in a confined or congested area.
• Gaseous ammonia, known as anhydrous ammonia in its pure form, dissolves easily in water
(hygroscopic) to form ammonium hydroxide which is an alkaline solution and weak base. Ammonia
and ammonium hydroxide are corrosive. The high solubility of ammonia in water and the high heat
of mixing must be fully considered in the estimation of its behaviour in accidents.
• Even when small leaks occur from an ammonia plant, they reveal themselves very clearly by smell
and can be dealt with by wearing appropriate equipment to protect the eyes, respiratory system,
and moist areas of skin.
• The toxicity of ammonia is such that it irritates a low-level and demanding immediate action; yet,
at this point it present no serious health hazard.
• Ammonia presents no risk of chronic health impacts from insidious low-level and long-duration
exposure as it is the case with many other toxic compounds.
• Conversely, large leaks of ammonia within confined spaces may, due to the intense acute effects
in high concentrations, pose a relatively higher health risk. Mitigations for such events, therefore,
need to be taken at the design stage and by implementing operational contingency solutions.
Table 6.2 lists the health risks at various ammonia concentrations and the corresponding exposure times.
It should be noted that the effects of low-level, long-term exposures are less known.
Table 6.2 – Acute Health Effects due to Short Ammonia Exposure
10 – 20 mg/m3
Immediate Smell of ammonia is noticeable
(15 - 30 ppm)
70 mg/m3
Immediate Nose irritation / burning sensation in the eyes
(100 ppm)
To reduce the likelihood of exposure to high concentrations, adequate ventilation should be installed in all
areas where ammonia gas could be built up. Automated ammonia gas detection at ppm level and
automated responses, such as alarms, increased ventilation, line shut down, all consist of standard
commercial technologies allowing safe operation of ammonia handling systems. If the discharge
concentration is too high with ventilation or if a significant leak emerges, the hazard can be contained by
means of water spray dissolving the ammonia into water.
Additional safety considerations relating to the marine transport of bulk ammonia are included in Appendix
III.
6.3.4 Recommendations
Ammonia has several favourable attributes. The primary one is its high capacity for hydrogen storage, at
17.6 wt%, based on its molecular structure. However, in order to release hydrogen from ammonia,
significant energy input as well as reactor mass and volume are required. Other considerations include
safety and toxicity issues, both actual and perceived - although these are very well understood.
Recommendations for ammonia as hydrogen carrier include:
• Remain engaged with ammonia dehydrogenation developers including MHI, CSIRO and Ecuity.
Dehydrogenation of MCH takes place between 200°C and 400°C and pressures as low as 1.0 barg. Low
pressures in the dehydrogenation reactor favour the formation of hydrogen. However, low reaction
pressures also increase the load on downstream compressors required for hydrogen purification and
export. The reaction takes place on a platinum catalyst supported on aluminium oxide and has traditionally
been associated with coking.
6.4.2 MCH Safety and Environmental Considerations
Both toluene and MCH represent conventional liquid hydrocarbon hazards and have the lowest process
operating pressures of the three carriers examined. Both chemicals also have moderate toxicity although
this is lower than ammonia. MCH and toluene are carcinogenic and need to be handled carefully, like many
aromatic hydrocarbon liquids.
Environmentally, MCH and toluene are likely to have some acute toxicity to the environment if spilled,
although clearly the severity of the effects will depend on the quantity released into the environment and,
thus, they are not considered different from other similar hydrocarbons in this regard. The lower solubility
in water compared to ammonia is likely to represent a lower hazard to the marine environment as spills to
sea will tend to float and evaporate over time.
The dehydrogenation process operates above the MCH autoignition temperature and so any leaks are
highly likely to ignite. However, the dehydrogenation process operates at low pressure (circa 2 barg) and,
thus, releases are likely to be limited to localised pool fires.
Toluene and MCH have similar flash points (-4°C) to heptane and have flammable vapour cloud
concentrations in the range of approximately 1 to 7 vol%. For comparison, their minimum ignition energy is
around 0.24 mJ (compared with ammonia at 100 mJ and hydrogen at 0.019 mJ).
• Various fuel alternatives, including their impact on levelised cost and carbon emissions;
• Forecasted costs of imported power at each location within the supply chain.
Hydrogen pipeline compression power is assumed to be drawn from the local grid and, for simplicity, is
assumed fixed with no accounting of any carbon emissions taken, as this will vary across regions and states
which the hydrogen pipelines cross. Due to a lack of public domain information on price and carbon intensity
forecasts to 2050 for national and regional grid power, this analysis has been beyond the scope of this
study.
7.2 Financial Modelling
The financial model developed in this report calculates the levelised cost of hydrogen based on a
discounted cash flow structure over a 30-year period.
Table 7.1 shows the cost build-up of hydrogen produced on a USD per ton based on USD 1.25 / MMBTU
natural gas feedstock pricing. The items comprising the cost are discounted using a weighted average cost
of capital (WACC) of 10% to calculate their respective net present value. Similarly, both CAPEX and the
quantity of hydrogen delivered are discounted subject to the 10% WACC, with the levelised cost of hydrogen
calculated based on the formula below. The approximation utilises an equivalent annual cost calculation as
defined in Salmon et al. (2021):
Table 7.1 – LCOH Calculation Worked Example of LH2 Exported from Qatar
(320 kTPA H2 Produced, 250 kTPA H2 Delivered)
To enhance the LCOH calculation, further work can be performed accounting for future energy market and
economic dynamics. That can include:
• Market analysis and incorporation of future feedstock and energy price projections into the model
year-on-year, including natural gas, electricity and other utilities; and
• Expansion of the existing financial model to consider nominal values, in addition to real figures, so
LCOH calculations are subject to inflation variations across the different export locations.
7.3 Commercialisation of Hydrogen Technology
This study assumes that gaseous hydrogen is provided by all three technologies of MCH, ammonia and
LH2 and the demand is secured at the end market of Rotterdam, with initial scale of 250 kTPA in 2030,
increasing to 1,000 kTPA by 2040 and reaching an assumed peak import level of 10,000 kTPA by 2050.
However, not all the technologies considered in the report present the same maturity level for their wider
market deployment. Although ammonia is currently produced and transported in relatively high volumes, its
weakest point remains the dehydrogenation step which has not been commercially proven yet. If the end
use is for power generation and direct-firing of ammonia is commercialised, then dehydrogenation is not
required, leading to significant cost and execution risk reductions.
8.00
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
LH2 2030 LH2 2040 LH2 2050 MCH 2030 MCH 2040 MCH 2050 Ammonia Ammonia Ammonia
(cracked) (cracked) (cracked)
2030 2040 2050
7.00
6.00
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
LH2 2030 LH2 2040 LH2 2050 MCH 2030 MCH 2040 MCH 2050 Ammonia Ammonia Ammonia
(cracked) (cracked) (cracked)
2030 2040 2050
8.00
7.00
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
LH2 2030 LH2 2040 LH2 2050 MCH 2030 MCH 2040 MCH 2050 Ammonia Ammonia Ammonia
(cracked) (cracked) (cracked)
2030 2040 2050
7.00
6.00
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
LH2 2030 LH2 2040 LH2 2050 MCH 2030 MCH 2040 MCH 2050 Ammonia Ammonia Ammonia
(cracked) (cracked) (cracked)
2030 2040 2050
7.00
6.00
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
LH2 2030 LH2 2040 LH2 2050 MCH 2030 MCH 2040 MCH 2050 Ammonia Ammonia Ammonia
(cracked) (cracked) (cracked)
2030 2040 2050
7.00
6.00
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
2030 2040 2050
3.50
3.00
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
2030 2040 2050
4.00
3.50
3.00
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
2030 2040 2050
6.00
5.00
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
0.63
0.09
4.00 0.44
0.78 0.08
0.57 0.26
0.08
3.00 0.37
2.00
3.40
3.12
2.86
1.00
0.00
Ammonia (cracked) 2030 Ammonia (cracked) 2040 Ammonia (cracked) 2050
4.00
3.50
0.66
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
3.00
0.26
0.46
2.50
0.77 0.19
0.27
2.00 0.57 0.16
0.39
1.50
1.00 1.99
1.74
1.50
0.50
0.00
Ammonia (cracked) 2030 Ammonia (cracked) 2040 Ammonia (cracked) 2050
4.00
3.50 0.67
3.00
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
0.31
0.47
2.50 0.23
0.82 0.27
2.00 0.63 0.19
0.45
1.50
1.00 1.96
1.73
1.51
0.50
0.00
Ammonia (cracked) 2030 Ammonia (cracked) 2040 Ammonia (cracked) 2050
4.00
3.50
0.67
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
3.00
2.50 0.40
0.47
0.28
2.00 0.81 0.27
0.63 0.23
1.50
0.45
1.00
1.56
1.33
0.50 1.12
0.00
Ammonia (cracked) 2030 Ammonia (cracked) 2040 Ammonia (cracked) 2050
3.00
0.65
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
2.50 0.31
0.46
2.00 0.22
0.78 0.27
0.60 0.18
1.50
0.43
1.00
1.50
1.28
0.50 1.07
0.00
Ammonia (cracked) 2030 Ammonia (cracked) 2040 Ammonia (cracked) 2050
6.00
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
2030 2040 2050
Production Pipeline
3.00
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
2030 2040 2050
Production Pipeline
3.50
LCOH (USD/kg - H2 Delivered)
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
2030 2040 2050
Production Pipeline
HGP
Carrier LCOH
Cas Hydrogen Sailing Production
H2 Hydrogen Export Volume
e Delivered Speed Cost ($/kg H2
Carrier Produced Terminal Produced
No. (kTPA) (knots) ($/kg- delivered)
(kTPA)
produced)
Saudi Arabia
1 LH2 299 250 12 1.04 299 6.15
(Jeddah)
Saudi Arabia
2 LH2 303 250 15 1.03 303 6.09
(Jeddah)
Saudi Arabia
3 LH2 306 250 18 1.02 306 6.06
(Jeddah)
4 LH2 282 250 Norway (Oslo) 15 2.43 282 7.33
5 LH2 312 250 USA (Houston) 15 1.33 312 6.60
Argentina
6 LH2 323 250 15 1.27 323 6.83
(Buenos Aires)
7 LH2 319 250 Qatar (Doha) 15 1.03 319 6.51
8 LH2 1,128 1,000 Norway (Oslo) 15 2.22 1,128 5.69
9 LH2 1,250 1,000 USA (Houston) 15 1.15 1,250 5.05
Argentina
10 LH2 1,291 1,000 15 1.12 1,291 5.32
(Buenos Aires)
11 LH2 1,276 1,000 Qatar (Doha) 15 0.87 1,276 5.02
Saudi Arabia
12 LH2 1,213 1,000 15 0.87 1,213 4.64
(Jeddah)
13 LH2 11,284 10,000 Norway (Oslo) 15 2.02 11,284 4.11
14 LH2 12,498 10,000 USA (Houston) 15 0.99 12,498 3.56
Argentina
15 LH2 12,913 10,000 15 0.97 12,913 3.86
(Buenos Aires)
16 LH2 12,755 10,000 Qatar (Doha) 15 0.73 12,755 3.58
Saudi Arabia
17 LH2 12,133 10,000 15 0.73 12,133 3.23
(Jeddah)
18 MCH 538 250 Norway (Oslo) 15 2.32 8,683 8.12
19 MCH 538 250 USA (Houston) 15 1.25 8,683 5.97
• One or more suitably marked decontamination shower shall be available on deck, depending on
the size of the ship, and shall be able to operate under all ambient conditions.
AIII 1.1.2 Corrosivity and Material Selection
Given the reactivity of ammonia in the presence of moisture, it corrodes copper, zinc and many alloys
requiring that only iron, steel and specific non-ferrous alloys that are ammonia resistant should be used for
tanks, fittings and associated ammonia pipework, including valves and gaskets. Only some rubbers and
polymers are compatible with liquid anhydrous ammonia, impacting the material selection for gaskets and
sealing.
Particular attention shall be kept to the presence of nickel: its presence in nickel alloys shall be kept below
6% to avoid the phenomenon of nickel crystalline corrosion. Oxygen levels of more than a few ppm in liquid
ammonia can promote stress corrosion cracking in steels, which proceed very rapidly at high temperatures.
The IGC Code gives the following requirements for cargo tanks and associated pipelines, valves, fittings
and other items of equipment normally in direct contact with the cargo liquid or vapour, in case of ammonia:
• Mercury, copper and copper-bearing alloys, and zinc shall not be used for cargo handling ammonia
and for equipment normally in contact with ammonia liquid or vapour,
• The ammonia shall contain not less than 0.1% w/w water,
• Minimum requirements for steel yield strength and post-welding treatment are indicated in IGC
Code chapter 17.12.
AIII 1.1.3 Safe Release of Ammonia
The management of boil-off-gas should maximise recovery where possible, and also prevent the release
of gaseous ammonia to the atmosphere / close to deck. It is necessary to employ either ammonia vent
scrubbing systems, selective catalytic scrubbing equipment or vent flaring systems on ammonia carriers for
controlled venting / purging activities. A closed purging system should be considered to eliminate the need
for venting.
• Bunkering stations;
• Engine rooms.
It is also noted that within the shore-based industrial ammonia industry, standalone, self-contained vapour-
tight personnel shelters are employed. These could potentially be employed aboard an ammonia-fuelled
tanker where design limitations make risk mitigation challenging. Such measures would build upon
extensive existing design regulations for gas and ammonia carriers which have brought about the inclusion
of shelter in place designs for the bridge and other areas of the vessels.
When combusted in an engine, ammonia may produce another greenhouse gas, nitrous oxide (N2O). Such
emissions must be mitigated for ammonia to have zero GHG impact. Use of ammonia as a fuel may also
lead to emissions of NOx which together with N2O and ammonia in the exhaust can trigger smog to develop,
due to an affinity for pm 2.5 particles. These issues will need to be investigated as part of ongoing research.
NOx emissions will have to meet IMO’s existing Tier II or Tier III emission standards, and new regulations
are expected to be developed to mitigate N2O and ammonia slip. A limit of 10 ppm ammonia slip with the
exhaust would be in line with standards previously applied to Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR). Existing
exhaust aftertreatment technologies will likely be able to mitigate both slip and NOx / N2O emissions, though
they will need to be proven effective in shipping. These installations may be large, but the cost penalty for
inserting emission abatement systems to the exhaust train is expected to have greater impact on OPEX
than CAPEX as catalytic conversion may reduce engine efficiency by a few per cent. These costs should
be considered in the context of similar costs for managing nitric oxides control in traditional fuel engines.
Emission mitigation solutions must be compatible with relevant flows and temperature in the combustion
cycle, as well as with the presence of sulphur in pilot and lubrication fuels.