Basic Protocols in Predictive Food Microbiology Methods and Protocols in Food Science Verônica Ortiz Alvarenga (Editor)
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Basic Protocols in Predictive Food Microbiology Methods and Protocols in Food Science Verônica Ortiz Alvarenga (Editor)
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Methods and Protocols in Food Science
Series Editor
Anderson S. Sant’Ana
University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil
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Zafeiro Aspridou
Department of Food Science and Technology, School of Agriculture,
Faculty of Agriculture, Forestry and Natural Environment, Aristotle
University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
Araceli Bolívar
Department of Food Science and Technology, UIC Zoonosis y
Enfermedades Emergentes ENZOEM, ceiA3, Universidad de Có rdoba,
14014, Có rdoba, Spain
Michael Callanan
Department of Biological Sciences, Munster Technological University,
Cork, Ireland
Pablo S. Fernandez
Departamento de Ingeniería Agronó mica, Campus de Excelencia
Internacional Regional “Campus Mare Nostrum”, Instituto de
Biotecnología Vegetal, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería
Agronó mica, Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, Cartagena, Spain
Alberto Garre
Food Microbiology, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen,
The Netherlands
Leonidas Georgalis
Departamento de Ingeniería Agronó mica, Campus de Excelencia
Internacional Regional “Campus Mare Nostrum”, Instituto de
Biotecnología Vegetal, Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería
Agronó mica, Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, Cartagena, Spain
Konstantinos P. Koutsoumanis
Department of Food Science and Technology, School of Agriculture,
Faculty of Agriculture, Forestry and Natural Environment, Aristotle
University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
Alexandra Lianou
Division of Genetics, Cell and Developmental Biology, Department of
Biology, University of Patras, Patras, Greece
Peter Myintzaw
Department of Biological Sciences, Munster Technological University,
Cork, Ireland
Thomas P. Oscar
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, Chemical
Residue and Predictive Microbiology Research Unit, Center for Food
Science and Technology, University of Maryland Eastern Shore, Princess
Anne, MD, USA
Fernando Pérez-Rodríguez
Department of Food Science and Technology, UIC Zoonosis y
Enfermedades Emergentes ENZOEM, ceiA3, Universidad de Có rdoba,
14014, Có rdoba, Spain
Maísa Daré Perim
Department of Food, Faculty of Pharmacy, Federal University of Minas
Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Çağla Pınarlı
Department of Nutrition and Dietetics, Istanbul Gedik University,
Istanbul, Turkey
Arícia Possas
Department of Food Science and Technology, University of Có rdoba,
Có rdoba, Spain
Andrea Serraino
Department of Veterinary Medical Sciences, University of Bologna,
Ozzano Emilia, BO, Italy
Fatih Tarlak
Department of Nutrition and Dietetics, Istanbul Gedik University,
Istanbul, Turkey
Federico Tomasello
Department of Veterinary Medical Sciences, University of Bologna,
Ozzano Emilia, BO, Italy
Antonio Valero
Department of Food Science and Technology, University of Có rdoba,
Có rdoba, Spain
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC,
part of Springer Nature 2023
V. O. Alvarenga (ed.), Basic Protocols in Predictive Food Microbiology, Methods and
Protocols in Food Science
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-0716-3413-4_1
Abstract
Advances in science and technology have led to the generation of data
that require storage, processing, and interpretation. Predictive
microbiology is a valuable tool that merges microbiology, mathematics,
and statistics to improve food safety and quality from microbial growth,
survival, or inactivation parameters. Predictive models seek to
understand the effect of environmental conditions (pH, temperature,
aw, etc.) on microbial responses by mathematical models. The
predictive models are developed by laboratory tests combined with
software to predict the microbial kinetic parameters under different
conditions. Indeed, the models do not replace microbial controls but
are an additional device for decision-making supported by data-driven.
Thus, this chapter aims to provide an overview of predictive
microbiology, covering fundamental concepts, methodologies, types of
models, and applications. Moreover, this chapter highlights basic
concepts that need to be considered while performing predictive
modeling and the limitations of this tool.
1 Introduction
In recent decades, food quality and safety concerns have been growing.
There are physical, chemical, and biological risks, which can affect food
integrity and safety [1]. Foods are subject to food contamination by
microorganisms, pathogenic or spoilage bacteria, which can cause food
batch recall and foodborne diseases and impact the consumer’s safety
[1]. Due to the expansion of the food trade, it is possible to notice a
relative difficulty in managing risks and ensuring the protection of
consumers’ health [2].
The unit operations in the food chain can affect microorganism
viability leading to inactivation. Thereby, it becomes crucial to know the
microbial behavior parameters to understand microbial growth
dynamics [3] and the responses of microorganisms to specific
environmental conditions [3, 4]. Data collection in different
environmental conditions enables assessing microbial kinetics and can
predict responses in other similar environments through mathematical
models [5]. Predictive microbiology uses mathematical models to
quantify the effect of intrinsic and extrinsic factors (i.e., temperature,
pH, water activity, autochthonous microbiota, and natural antimicrobial
compounds) on microbial behavior. Predictive models can predict
growth, inactivation parameters, and toxin production [6, 7]. The
responses provided by the models can support food processors and
regulatory agencies in data-driven decision-making.
The first description using a model was done by Bigelow and Esty
[8], Bigelow [9], and Esty and Meyer [10]. Although the concept of
“predictive microbiology” was first proposed in 1937, it was not
thoroughly applied until the early 1980s, when the response to large
food poisoning outbreaks spurred efforts to apply mathematical
models. These efforts were used in pathogen inactivation (for instance,
for Clostridium botulinum and Staphylococcus aureus) and measuring
the spoilage bacteria growth [11]. In the 1960s and 1970s, studies
applied mathematical models aimed toward the inactivation of bacteria
and fungi. The predictive microbiology field was raised in the 1980s
and 1990s. This intensification was attributed to accessibility to
computational tools and software, which allowed the use of more
complex and more accurate models [12].
Predictive microbiology aims to mathematically represent a
microbiological process’s reality and quantify its intrinsic and extrinsic
effects [13]. Predictive microbiology has emerged at the interface of
different areas of knowledge, including microbiology, statistics,
mathematics, and computation. It has become an essential tool for
data-driven decision-making [14]. Due to the importance of individual
factors for each food type, data collection for predictive microbiological
models is mainly based on laboratory data. However, there is also an
increasing amount of research focused on purposely contaminated food
to generate data for predictive microbiology [6].
The US Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service
(USDA-ARC) and the UK Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food
proposed the first predictive microbiology software’s approach in the
1990s [15]. The systems were called Pathogen Modeling Program and
Food Micromodel, respectively. Both tools have a database and
mathematical models to describe growth responses to environmental
factors of foodborne pathogens [4]. Afterward, other tools emerged for
predictive microbiology, such as Seafood Spoilage Predictor (currently
called Food Safety Spoilage Predictor) [16], Dmfit, Ginafit [17],
Microbial Responses Viewer [18], MicroHibro [19], Combase [20], and
Bioinactivation [21].
The guarantee of food safety and quality can be impacted by the
emergence of innovative food products such as new preserving food
technologies. Thus, investigations that evaluate possible complications
that may affect the quality of products are necessary. Also, current
knowledge that are already available, the effects of processing new
products, and other factors are of great importance to consider when
developing predictive models [14].
Additionally in the food industry, authorities are seeking solutions
and tools to mitigate or solve problems related to food safety.
Considering the challenges to maintain the food quality and safety
throughout the food chain, it is feasible to apply predictive modeling in
the food industry [11]. Therefore, it is essential to plan the entire
process and collect microbiological data that adequately reproduce the
behavior of the microorganism in that specific study environment as
well as choosing the appropriate model which relies the studies [22].
This book will cover the particularities of food matrices, the
relationship between foods and microorganisms, and data collection for
predictive models. Therefore, understanding microbial behavior and
the influence of environmental conditions is fundamental for properly
developing studies based on predictive food modeling.
Model Description
Static model A static mathematical model is designed to perform decision-
making in a fixed period, where there is no sequence of decisions to
be taken in the long term
Dynamic This model is used when the objective is to find decisions over
model some time. Thus, a series of decisions are to be taken in this
interval, where the variables can be changed over time
Linear model Based on the multiplication and addition of constants to the
decision variables of the objective function and its restrictions
Nonlinear A nonlinear model occurs when an optimization model is not
model linear, which usually involves a higher degree of complexity, and
can form a convex, concave function, non-convex nor concave
function, or a convex and concave function
Deterministic One that has a known number of inputs and outputs. In this way, it
model does not present random variables as it represents the evolution of
the system in a certain period of time
Stochastic The stochastic model, as well as the deterministic one, evaluates
model the evolution of the system in a certain period of time. However,
this model, unlike the previous one, presents random variables.
Due to uncertain variables of the system, the measurement of time
in the system can be continuous or in intervals
Network Network models are a way of optimizing mathematical models
models using programming techniques or graphical techniques
(2)
(3)
(5)
(6)
(7)
where β0, βj, βjj, βjl are the estimated coefficient regression, Xj and Xl are
independent variables, and ε is error.
(8)
where Tmin is the minimum temperature below which the maximum
growth rate is equal to 0 and obtained through a linear regression of
the square root of the maximum growth rate temperature.
(9)
where X is temperature, pH, or aw; Xmin and Xmax are values of X below
and above which no-growth occurs, respectively; Xopt is the value X at
which microbial growth is optimum; and n is a shape parameter. In
optimal condition de CMn(Xopt), the value is equal 1 and for Xmin and
Xmax the CMn is equal to 0 [57].