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 Contents vii
10.3 Air freight pricing 216
10.4 Revenue management 221

11 Airline costs 229

11.1 All-cargo airline costs 229
11.2 Freighter aircraft costs by aircraft type 242
11.3 ACMI/wet lease aircraft operating costs 245
11.4 Problems of joint production on passenger services 247

12 Air cargo financial performance 250

12.1 Cargo airline profitability 250
12.2 Nippon Cargo Airlines case study 253
12.3 Federal Express case study 263
12.4 Network carrier cargo subsidiaries 268

13 Air cargo and the environment 273

13.1 Background 273
13.2 Aircraft noise 273
13.3 Air transport’s existing contribution to global CO2 emissions 281
13.4 Emissions taxes and charges 288
13.5 Emissions trading schemes and air cargo 289
13.6 Global market-based measure: ICAO’s CORSIA 294
13.7 Non-CO2 effects of aviation 296
13.8 Air cargo and food miles 297
13.9 Conclusions 297

14 Air cargo forecasting 301

14.1 Air cargo forecasting approaches 302
14.2 Airline forecasts 307
14.3 Airport forecasts 308
14.4 Air traffic management forecasts 309
14.5 ICAO forecasts 311
14.6 Other industry forecasts 313
14.7 Aircraft manufacturer forecasts 313
14.8 Forecasting cyclical air cargo developments 320
14.9 Outlook 321

Definitions 325

Index 335
Figures

1.1 Passenger versus freight traffic trends, scheduled international

services, 2005–2016 2
1.2 Growth rates for international freight versus mail traffic,
2005–2016 3
1.3 Distribution of world international freight tonne-km traffic by
trade lane, 2016 6
1.4 Global cargo traffic (FTKs) versus world trade and GDP
(2005 to 2016) 12
1.5 US inventory to sales ratio vs international air freight traffic
(2006 to 2016) 12
1.6 Total international air freight tonne-kms traffic variation by
month, 2010 to 2016 17
1.7 Hong Kong International Airport freight tonnes variation by
month, 2014 18
2.1 World trade by commodity (air and surface transportation) 27
2.2 Seasonality of telecommunication equipment shipments
(2014–2016) 29
2.3 Air cargo imports of cut flowers into the EU (metric tonnes,
2002–2016) 31
2.4 Seasonality of cut flowers (2014–2016) 32
2.5 Air trade by commodity, 2015: Europe to/from Asia 36
2.6 Air trade by commodity, 2015: North America to/from Asia 38
2.7 Air trade by commodity, 2015: North America to/from Latin
America 40
2.8 Air trade by commodity, 2015: North America to/from Europe 41
2.9 US air share of trade value (excluding North America),
1965 to 2017 48
2.10 Cumulative mode shift weight from air to ocean 2000–2013,
by year 49
3.1 US screening programme 57
3.2 Freedoms of the air (air traffic rights) 72
4.1 The air cargo value chain 83
4.2 Types of cargo airlines with examples for each category 84
 Figures ix
4.3 Scheduled international air cargo and share of freighters
1992–2016 91
5.1 Operators in air cargo/parcels market 110
5.2 Geographic presence vs service levels 111
5.3 Global freight forwarding market size, 2010–2016 121
7.1 Freighter aircraft conversions, 1997 to 2016 154
7.2 Payload-range trade-off 159
7.3 Temperature impact on load factor Nairobi-Amsterdam
in January 163
8.1 Example of an air waybill 172
8.2 Unit load devices (ULDs) – examples 180
9.1 Forecasts of share of e-commerce in global retail sales,
2015 to 2021 197
9.2 Example of multinational offshoring of production 198
9.3 Total distribution cost model 201
10.1 World airline passenger versus cargo yields and oil price,
index 1990 = 100 211
10.2 Cathay Pacific cargo and passenger yields vs kerosene price,
1997–2007 212
10.3 Cathay Pacific cargo and passenger yields vs kerosene price,
2007–2016 213
10.4 Lufthansa cargo revenues per RTK, and €/US$ exchange rate,
1999 to 2016 213
10.5 British Airways fuel surcharge versus jet kerosene price
(Sep 2002 to May 2010) 218
10.6 Spot market rates by product and advance booking 224
10.7 Overbooking cost optimisation 226
11.1 All-cargo airline unit costs versus average sector distance, 2014 230
11.2 Operator unit cost versus RTK size, 2014 231
11.3 Trends in spot crude and jet kerosene prices, 1989 to 2016 237
12.1 World airline profitability, 2006–2016 251
12.2 US all-cargo airline profitability, 2006 vs 2016 252
12.3 Return on invested capital by value chain participant 254
12.4 Nippon Cargo Airlines traffic and load factor trends, 1990 to 2016 257
12.5 Nippon Cargo Airlines margin developments, 1991–2016 261
12.6 Nippon Cargo Airlines yield and unit cost developments,
1988–2016 262
12.7 Federal Express international traffic and load factor trends,
1992 to 2016 265
12.8 Federal Express margin developments, 1988–2014 268
13.1 ICAO noise standard development 274
13.2 Global emissions share by main sectors in 2014 282
13.3 Change in global emissions share by main sectors between
1990 and 2014 283
13.4 Trend in market price of EUAs, 2009 to 2017 291
x Figures
13.5 Impact of benchmarking on B737-400 flight with hypothetical
average at 1,850km sector length 292
14.1 ICAO methodology for forecasting air freight 312
14.2 Airbus Global Market Forecast methodology for freighter
demand 314
14.3 Forces and constraints for air cargo growth 315
14.4 Boeing World Air Cargo Forecasts vs actual FTK
development 1970–2035 319
14.5 Correlation between global FTK growth and statistical indicators 322
Tables

1.1 International world cargo traffic by type of service, 1999,

2008, 2009 and 2015 4
1.2 World cargo traffic, domestic services, 1999, 2008,
2009 and 2015 5
1.3 EU air cargo tonnes carried, 2016 vs 2006 8
1.4 Freight tonne-kms by region of airline
registration/domicile, 2016 9
1.5 Air freight throughput for top 10 world airports, 2016 13
1.6 Top 10 international airports and their hub carriers (2016) 15
1.7 Traffic breakdown at Amsterdam Schiphol hub airport 15
1.8 Cargo load factors: IATA member airlines, 2016 19
1.9 Published freighter flights from Europe to Asia, January 2010 21
1.10 Integrator and cargo jet flights from East Midlands to Western
Europe, March 2017 22
2.1 EU air freight imports by commodity type 2016 28
2.2 EU air freight imports 2016 – machinery, transport
equipment, manufactured articles 28
2.3 EU air freight imports 2016 – agricultural products and
live animals 30
2.4 EU air freight imports 2016 – chemicals 33
2.5 US Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF) allocations, January 46
3.1 Air services agreements and cargo provisions 1980 to 2005 66
3.2 Analysis of ASAs in APEC countries, 2005 73
4.1 Scheduled air freight by type of carrier, 2016 84
4.2 Top 10 international cargo airlines, scheduled international
FTK, 2016 86
4.3 World low cost carrier cargo acceptance policy (examples) 88
4.4 Factors impacting on cargo airlines’ location decision 93
4.5 Systemwide air freight by non-integrated all-cargo carrier, 2016 94
4.6 Top 10 US airlines by total FTKs carried, 2013 98
4.7 Top 10 European airlines by total FTKs carried, 2016 100
4.8 Top 10 Asia-Pacific airlines by total FTKs carried, 2016 102
4.9 Top 10 Middle East/Africa airlines by total FTKs carried, 2016 104
xii Tables
4.10 Top 10 South and Central American airlines by total FTKs
carried, 2016 104
5.1 International air freight by integrator 2007–2015 114
5.2 Total international express market volume in 2013 114
5.3 Deutsche Post world total revenue by division (€m) 116
5.4 DHL shareholdings in airlines, 2016 117
5.5 Global air freight tonnage by top ten forwarders, 2016 122
7.1 Top 10 most popular jet freighters (factory-built and converted) 145
7.2a Standard body: factory-built freighters 146
7.2b Standard body: converted freighters 147
7.3a Medium wide-body: factory-built freighters 148
7.3b Medium wide-body: converted freighters 148
7.4a Large wide-body: factory-built freighters 149
7.4b Large wide-body: converted freighters 150
7.5 Current and planned conversion programmes 155
7.6 Maximum available payload for lower deck cargo on
wide-body passenger aircraft 157
7.7 Payload and fuel burn comparison B747-400pax vs B747-400F:
Frankfurt-Atlanta 160
7.8 Comparison Frankfurt–Sao Paulo non-stop and with fuel stop
on Ilha do Sal 161
8.1 Hactl Super Terminal 1 at Hong Kong airport 182
8.2 DHL Express hub at Leipzig/Halle Airport 183
8.3 Major third-party cargo handling companies 2017 186
9.1 Air freight rate structure for UPS, May 2017 206
10.1 US cents yield per RTK by type of service, 2013 214
10.2 Lufthansa forecasts of yield by type of cargo (€ per kg), 2003 215
10.3 German air freight price index by destination region
(selected years; 2010 = 100) 216
10.4 Product portfolio of an all-cargo carrier – example: Cargolux 220
10.5 Charges reduced by consolidation 221
11.1 ICAO reporting form for collection of financial data, part 1 233
11.2 Fuel efficiency and cost for large wide-body freighters 238
11.3 Cargolux asset depreciation policy, 2015 239
11.4 Freighter values (US$ million), May 2015 240
11.5 Cargolux operating cost breakdown, 1999, 2008 and 2015 241
11.6 FedEx operating cost trends by cost item, 1998 to 2014 242
11.7 Operating costs for typical transpacific route, 2014 245
11.8 Atlas Air segment contributions, 2016 247
11.9 Costs assumed by lessor/charterer 248
12.1 Standalone freighter aircraft companies, FY2016 253
12.2 NCA route development, 1985 to 2000 256
12.3 Key Federal Express highlights 264
12.4 FedEx Express fleet, end May 2017 266
12.5 Federal Express fleet productivity, 2016 267
 Tables xiii
12.6 Lufthansa Cargo financial and operating data, 2006 and 2016 269
12.7 Lufthansa Cargo operating cost breakdown, 2008 and 2016 270
12.8 Singapore Airlines load factors by product and type of flight,
2015–2016 271
12.9 SIA Cargo financial and operating data, 2005/06 to 2016/17 271
13.1 Freighter flights by region of major airline base, 2002 283
13.2 Global aviation fuel used by type of flight, 2002 284
13.3 US operator jet freighter aircraft, estimated fuel consumption,
2016 285
13.4 CORSIA implementation timeline 296
14.1 BAA forecasts of air cargo tonnes with and without Terminal 5 309
14.2 FAA air cargo traffic (ton-mile) forecasts, 2016–2037 310
14.3 Boeing air cargo forecasts (RTKs), average annual change 316
14.4 Airbus air cargo forecasts (RTKs), average annual change 316
14.5 Boeing and Airbus jet freighter aircraft delivery forecasts 317
14.6 Comparison of long-term forecasts 318
Foreword

Although the first movement of cargo (air mail) was accomplished in the very
early part of the 20th century and commercial lifts have been in existence since
then, it was the great Berlin Airlift in 1948 that established air as a viable major
mode of cargo transportation. Since then there has been a developing focus on
moving goods by air. From bulk loaded airplanes to the development of
containerised movement, both in air and ocean, the way cargo is transported
changed over time.
Air cargo, in its early stages, was a very expensive mode of transportation
and generally only very urgent shipments were effected by air. Thanks to the
United States’ Airline Deregulation Act of 1978, competitive factors continued
to play and movement by air for cargo started becoming more and more
affordable. Since global trade was more directional in the pre-globalisation era,
empty legs made the rates more competitive in the hopes of catalysing new
business from other modes of transportation. The sea/air movement from the
Far East to Europe was a direct result of this.
With the start of the globalisation of trade and manufacturing in particular,
where raw materials were moved into lower cost production facilities in China
and other Far Eastern countries, commenced an emphasis on developing the
science of supply chain operations and management. Suddenly logisticians
were looking at the overall cost efficiency of the integral cost of the entire
supply chain operation instead of individual cost elements. This highlighted
the fact that when time, cost of capital and return on investment were
concerned, the higher cost of air cargo actually added better cost efficiency to
the end product. It was further boosted by the evolution in inventory manage-
ment and the passing of cost of inventory to the vendor. In an extremely
globalised world and a competitive global market, speed to market and first
mover advantage coupled with the efficiency of supply chain management
became the thin line between profit and loss. Evolution in technology and the
resultant shorter life cycles of products led to inventory not being produced
until it was required: components and end products had to either be moved to
production lines or to consumers in the shortest possible time. This was great
news for the movement of trade and goods by air and the sea/air movements
also became part of the just-in-time logistics.
 Foreword xv
IATA’s campaign “air cargo makes it happen” continues to ring so true
today. Despite the fact that dynamics of air cargo have dramatically changed in
the last decade, they continue to evolve at a frenetic pace. . .. e-commerce has
opened up a whole new channel of retailing which has truly changed customer
behaviour. Today, online buying is as common as going to the neighbourhood
grocer was in the early part of the 20th century. e-tailers like amazon.com and
Alibaba have further changed the rules of engagement by promising deliveries
to consumers within hours of their buying. Those who control efficient last
mile deliveries have become the winners with air cargo now becoming a part
of their middle mile operation. The efficiency of the first and last mile depends
largely on the middle mile operation, be it by air, land or sea. Since time has
become firmly integrated with the other three dimensions, it benefits from the
fluidity of demand and supply.
Changing dynamics means that everything that goes into the handling of air
cargo must evolve in order to be able to maximise the efficiency of the
process. Everything from ground handling equipment to aircraft has to
evolve. Today’s warehouses and processes are significantly different from
what they used to be a couple of decades ago. No matter how these evolve,
the basic concepts remain the same. Some parts of the handling are belt and
braces and will remain as such despite automation, e.g. offloading from a
transport vehicle, building/offloading of pallets and containers etc. Bringing
efficiency into these processes will depend on how information is moved
about. Information technology will be core to all aspects of logistics. Embra-
cing virtual and augmented reality will be vital to bringing further efficiencies
in the handling process. Digitisation will be key to success.
On the aviation side, today’s traditional freighters will transition from
manned to unmanned air vehicles (UAV). This will require massive changes
in the way airports operate, especially from the civil aviation/air traffic control
(ATC) aspects. The initial large UAV will operate just like traditional airplanes
with industry standard pallets and containers (ULD). Hence, standard ground
service equipment will suffice to handle them. The main changes will be in the
flight operations area.
As technology and processes evolve in the future, though certain principles
will remain the same, the new processes and the basic fabric will evolve to
embrace the changes that the disruptions of tomorrow will bring about.
Aircraft and airlines operate within the strictest of regulatory environments.
Every aspect of ground handling has an air safety element. Large portions of
the total air cargo movements happen on wide-body combination aircraft
which carry passengers on the upper deck and baggage and cargo in the belly
of the aircraft. Freighters tend to plough the high density trade routes.
In a combination operation, revenue from cargo contributes to the business
alongside passengers, whereas in a pure freighter operation, cargo is the only
source of income and this creates its own challenges in the market pricing.
Combination operations tend to be less sensitive to directionality of traffic than
freighters. The newly developing air cargo market place will further ease the
xvi Foreword
procurement of air cargo transportation services making it all happen with a
few clicks on a website. It will be just like buying a cell phone online.
It is great to see that this book addresses the various complexities of air cargo
transportation and gives insights into every aspect of it. It is therefore truly a
must-study for those who want to make a career in purchasing, transportation
and logistics. The laymen will discover some of the stuff that happens behind
the scenes when they click ‘buy’ while purchasing their cell phone or
whatever they are buying online from their favourite e-tailer’s site.

Ram C. Menen FRAeS, FCILT

Retired aviation and air cargo executive,
former divisional senior vice-president cargo, Emirates,
past chairman, president and CEO, The International
Air Cargo Association (TIACA),
founding team member of Emirates and TIACA.
Preface

The first air cargo or air mail flight is a highly contentious issue. Mail is said to
have been first carried from Albany to New York in May 1910 and cargo first
carried from Dayton to Columbus, Ohio, in November of the same year. The
first flight by a hot air balloon carrying cargo (a cockerel, a sheep and a duck)
was much earlier. The third distinct type of traffic, air express, owes its rapid
development to the ending of the Railway Express Agency in 1975, a couple
of years after the founding of Federal Express. The Airline Deregulation Act of
1978 further removed any obstacles to the growth of air express operators such
as FedEx and UPS, at least within the US.
Air cargo is closely linked to international trade whose expansion has been
fostered by the removal of physical restrictions and the growth of commercial
opportunities through improved communications and international contacts. It
has benefited from freer transfers of funds, stability of exchange rates and easier
access to credit. Above all the reduction and removal of duties has also
encouraged the growth in trade, as has the outsourcing of manufacturing to
lower cost firms in other countries. However, the globalisation that this
implies was severely challenged following the banking crisis of 2008 and its
aftermath. Its impact on the global economy was more pronounced as a result
of the complex web of international outsourcing and subcontracting that had
been constructed. At the same time the vital availability of trade finance was
curtailed and trade and thus air cargo turned down sharply. Banks were forced
to cut lending and credit in the inter-bank markets almost dried up. Trade
credit was affected in addition to the sharp reduction in demand that was also
fuelled by a cutback in consumer debt. Recovery was slow and there has been
some evidence of switching supply to firms that are situated closer to home.
Air cargo also plays a key role in humanitarian aid. Air lift is provided by
both military and civil aircraft often through hostile airspace and to below
standard airports. Probably the most famous example of this was the Berlin
Airlift after the Second World War. In 1948, Berlin was jointly controlled by
the Allies and Russians, although the Russians held the area surrounding the
city and thus land access. This access was closed and hence an airlift remained
the only option to get increasingly urgent supplies of food, coal and other
supplies to what had become West Berlin. Over 330 days to 12th May 1949 a
xviii Preface
total of 2.26m tonnes of cargo were airlifted into Berlin, an average of 6,800
tonnes a day, 80% by the US and 20% by the UK. Almost three-quarters of
the payload was coal, vital in heating the city especially over the winter period.
The aircraft used were initially mostly C-47s with 3.5 tonnes of payload, but
these were gradually replaced with C-54s and Avro Yorks with 10 tonnes. An
assortment of other aircraft was also pressed into service. The peak day
involved a total of almost 13,000 tonnes supplied by 1,383 flights, an average
of 9.4 tonnes per flight. Only three runways were available and techniques had
to be developed for efficient loading, unloading and air traffic control. Main-
tenance had to be adapted to schedules that gave high utilisation with often
ageing planes. More recent examples of international aid have been in response
to the devastation caused by earthquakes or floods: here surface transport is
either too slow or impossible and air transport is the only means to supply food
and clothing to the homeless.
In spite of the importance of air cargo in international trade, aid and relief
operations, it has remained the poor cousin to the more glamorous passenger
side of the business. This has been reflected in the dearth of air cargo books,
with the topic usually dealt with as one chapter in books on air transport. It
also receives little attention in books on logistics and the supply chain. The
first edition of this book gave the industry its own comprehensive analysis of
air cargo. The second updates the first, as well as incorporating the key
changes that have occurred since then, as well as ideas and technology that
may shape the future.
Individuals and firms assume that income will continue to grow indefinitely
every year and economies will continue on their expansion path. Thus the
upswings of economic cycles are fuelled by spending and investment supported
by bank lending, whether for consumer credit or company debt. Bubbles
form, especially in popular sectors such as IT and housing. At some point
expansion can no longer be sustainable, the bubble bursts and the downturn
starts, triggered or reinforced by a world event or crisis, as well as high prices
and shortages of key inputs. As this gathers pace, investment plans are shelved,
consumers cut back spending and pay off some of their debt, and companies
start to build depleted cash reserves.
The air cargo business fits this story well, with the pattern driven more by
international trade and inventory levels than GDP alone. With increased
outsourcing of production to other countries, exports and imports become
more volatile: changes in final demand impact inventory levels which lead to a
multiplier effect on trade from decisions made by exporters and importers of
intermediate goods. This seems to affect air trade more than other modes of
transport since consumers often cut back first on the hi-tech goods that are
shipped by air. In the upward part of the cycle, airlines invest in new and
especially converted freighter aircraft, the extra capacity justified by forecasts
that often disregard the expansion plans of others. Where these are taken into
account an increased market share is assumed, but then the assumption on
yields may not be realistic. Many airlines have ordered aircraft towards the end
 Preface xix
of the upturn and delivery and final payments are timed to coincide with the
bottom of the downswing when no airline needs the capacity, causing further
financial distress and perhaps bankruptcy. Airlines invest in other airlines on
the basis that they need to position themselves in emerging markets, for
example China. Forwarders and integrators strive to become more ‘global’ by
buying the pieces of the jigsaw that they lack. These decisions, unlike aircraft,
are more likely to be justified by long-term trends, and a short duration
downswing has to be suffered to gain longer-term expansion and profitability.
This is the background to the world of air cargo which this book intends to
examine in some detail.
Most recently the global banking crisis that gathered pace in the middle of
2008 had a dramatic impact on international trade and thus air trade. While
this book looks at the evolution of the air cargo industry over a much longer
period, the recent downturn gets perhaps a disproportionate amount of space.
This is not just because it is still in most readers’ memories but because it is a
convenient time to take stock of how the various participants have reacted and
fared.
The challenge of air cargo is that it offers a premium product that competes
with surface transport on the basis of speed and reliability. However, the
average time for consignments to reach their final destination is around five
days of which only 20–25% is accounted for by the flight time. The rest is
attributed to delays in ground handling, customs inspection and collection.
Passengers are often referred to as ‘self loading freight’, and while they some-
times challenge the seat they are allocated they do not have the very different
weights, shapes and sizes of goods and documents. These can also change
shape, such as when several parcels are combined into a single pallet, and they
can have different requirements in terms of speed of delivery, security and
point of delivery. They can have very different distance characteristics ranging
from domestic to cross-border to intercontinental.
Shorter supply chains mean less need for shipping or shorter distances and
may involve only surface transport. On the other hand, e-commerce will
continue to grow and faster premium forms of transport will be needed.
Technology may play a greater role through the commercialisation of drones
which could provide shorter delivery times than are possible by road or rail.
These challenges and others will be explored in the following chapters, some-
times contrasting cargo with the passenger side of the business, sometimes
comparing it with surface transport modes.
Acknowledgements

With this book, the authors intend to link relevant academic research with
day-to-day practice in the air cargo industry. This would not be possible
without the input of professionals at airlines and other participants in the global
supply chain. The authors wish to thank all those who answered questions and
provided insights into their respective business areas to ensure that the present
book achieves the required relevance for both an academic and industry
audience.
First and foremost the authors wish to thank to Ram Menen for writing the
foreword to this book. Ram developed Emirates SkyCargo from its inception
into the number one cargo carrier worldwide; now, having retired from his
position at Emirates, he actively follows and promotes the newest trends in the
industry.
Another word of thanks should go to Tom Crabtree from the Boeing
Company for his permission to use data from the Boeing World Air Cargo
Forecasts and for giving insight into a manufacturer’s perspective of the air
cargo industry.
A book like this would be nothing without data. Therefore, the authors
wish to thank Marco Bloemen from Seabury Consulting for his permission to
use data from the Seabury Trade database for underlying analyses of commod-
ity flows and modal choices.
Furthermore, the authors would like to thank Ali Malik from the IATA for
his permission to use data from the IATA World Air Transport Statistics
(WATS), a highly useful dataset for benchmarking the operations and perfor-
mance of airlines.
Abbreviations

ACMI Aircraft, crew, maintenance and insurance

ACC3 Air cargo or mail carrier operating into the (European) Union
from a third country airport
AEA Association of European Airlines
AOC Air Operator’s Certificate
APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
AWB Air waybill
ASA Air services agreement
ATA Air Transport Association of America (now Airlines for
America)
ATK Available tonne-kilometres
CLI Composite leading indicators (OECD)
CCS Cargo Community System
CEO Chief executive officer
CTK Cargo tonne-kilometres
Cargo-IMP Cargo interchange message procedures
CASS Cargo Accounts Settlement System (IATA)
CMV Current market value
CSC Cargo services conference
CPA Capacity purchasing agreement
e-AWB Electronic air waybill
EASA European Aviation Safety Agency
ECAC European Civil Aviation Conference
EEA European Economic Area
EDI Electronic data interchange
EZFW Estimated zero fuel weight
FAA Federal Aviation Administration
FF Freight forwarder
FFA Freight Forwarders Association
FWB Forwarder air waybill
GATS General Agreement on Trade in Services (WTO)
GCA Guaranteed capacity agreement
GDP Gross domestic product
xxii Abbreviations
GHA Ground handling agent
GSA General sales agent
HAWB House air waybill
IATA International Air Transport Association
ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization
IPCC Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change
IRR Internal rate of return
JAR Joint Airworthiness Requirements (EASA)
KPI Key performance indicator
LTL Less than truck load
MALIAT Multilateral Agreement on International Air Transport
MAWB Master air waybill
MTAW Maximum taxi weight
MTOW Maximum take-off weight
MZFW Maximum zero fuel weight
NPV Net present value
OAG Official Airline Guide
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
PAX Passenger
RCS Ready for carriage shipment
RFID Radio frequency identification
RFS Road feeder service
RM Revenue management
RTK Revenue tonne-kilometres (also RTKM)
SLA Service level agreement
SSC Security surcharge on air freight rates
T or t Metric tonne
TACT The Air Cargo Tariff (IATA)
TIACA The International Air Cargo Association
TDC Total distribution cost
TEU Twenty-foot equivalent unit
TSA Transportation Security Administration
UAV Unmanned aerial vehicle, also referred to as drone
ULD Unit load device, usually either a pallet or container
UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
VAN Value added network
WACC Weighted average cost of capital
WATS World Air Transport Statistics (IATA)
WCO World Customs Organization
WFP World Food Programme
WTO World Trade Organization (formerly GATT)
ZFW Zero fuel weight

Sources: IATA, AEA and ICAO

1 Air cargo traffic and capacity

1.1 Air cargo traffic trends

In this chapter trends in both international and domestic air cargo traffic will
be analysed, focusing on cargo tonne-kms as a traffic measure but also using
tonnes carried where appropriate. Freight and express will be distinguished
from mail and trends on passenger and freighter flights will be identified. The
main trade routes will be examined, also moving to a country level where
warranted. More detailed data at the airline level will be discussed in Chapter 4.
Mention will also be made of trucking, in cases where it is used as a cheaper
alternative to aircraft on an airport to airport basis.
The second section will compare trends in air cargo traffic and economic
indicators, exploring correlations at the global level. This is followed by an
analysis of the freight handled at airports to see how the importance of major
hubs is changing, finishing up with indications of traffic flows by season,
month, and day of the week. While annual traffic is the most usually reported
metric, variations within a year are useful in planning schedules and airport
capacity.

1.1.1 Global traffic

International freight traffic, excluding mail, has grown at an average rate of
5.3% a year between 1995 and 2005, at a much slower rate of 3.7% from 2005
to 2016 (Figure 1.1). The more recent period spanned the aftermath of the
banking crisis and trade slump, traffic only really picking up since 2016. In the
past, freight turned down before passengers and recovered first and often faster.
The opposite was true over 2010 to 2016, when passengers increased strongly
from 2010 to 2016. International mail traffic expanded more slowly over the
11 years to 2005 (2.2% p.a.) but faster over the next period (4.8% p.a.).
Freight tonne-kms are usually preferred to tonnes as a traffic measure for
aggregate analysis since this captures both the weight and distance travelled.
The trends for each are in fact very similar, since the average distance each
tonne of freight was carried has remained fairly constant at between 5,100
km and 5,600 km. This reflects the preponderance of traffic carried on the
2 Air cargo traffic and capacity

25.0

Passenger-kms
20.0
Freight tonne-kms

15.0
Annual percentage change

10.0

5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Figure 1.1 Passenger versus freight traffic trends, scheduled international services, 2005–2016
Source: ICAO and IATA

long-haul trade lanes between Asia on the one hand and Europe and North
America on the other.
Domestic freight traffic accounted for 16% of total world traffic in 2016,
much of it carried within the US. Trends in domestic traffic were distorted by
a major change in reporting traffic in the US: the United States Department of
Transportation implemented new air traffic data reporting rules whereby
previously reported non-scheduled freight traffic was reported as scheduled
traffic from 2003 onwards. Consequently there was a discontinuity in US
DOT traffic. ICAO obtains its data from member governments and thus its
data contain the same change, but this will not affect the 2005 to 2016 trend in
Figure 1.2.
The above would distort the comparison of average annual growth of world
ICAO freight and passenger traffic, with the reported figures showing freight
to have grown by 1.5 percentage points faster than passengers. The average
length of haul for domestic freight was as expected much shorter than
international: around 1,100km compared to 5,100km for international in 2015.
Total world scheduled international mail RTKs declined from 68% of total
cargo traffic in 1938 to 21% in 1970 and 2.5% in 2008, and 2.2% in 2016
reflecting both the rapid growth of freight and the success of the integrators
whose express traffic is recorded under ‘freight’. In 2015, domestic mail
accounted for 6.7% of total cargo tonne-kms. This might be surprising given
the expectation that more mail would move by surface transport over the
 Air cargo traffic and capacity 3

25.0

Freight tonne-kms
20.0
Mail tonne-kms

15.0
Annual percentage change

10.0

5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Figure 1.2 Growth rates for international freight versus mail traffic, 2005–2016
Source: ICAO and IATA WATS 2017

shorter domestic distances. However, the domestic data includes a large weight
from the US (as mentioned above) and the integrators’ data has been reported
under domestic traffic. The US integrators, especially FedEx, had a contract to
carry mail within the US, and most of this would be carried by air via its
Memphis hub.
Figure 1.2 compares the growth rates of mail and freight on international
routes. In earlier years there was a diversion of smaller parcels to the integrators
as they expanded internationally, and this traffic would be reported under
freight (and express). Mail has historically not been immune to sharp down-
turns that have hit freight, but it has avoided years of negative growth and
many of the national post offices have become more efficient and in some cases
privatised. Over the period 2005 to 2016 freight has increased at an average
rate of 3.4% compared to 4.4% for mail. One reason for the higher growth rate
of mail may have been the greater use of post offices to deliver (and sometimes
return) internet shopping items. These may have been more expensive by
express.
The share of international cargo traffic carried on freighter flights has
increased over the past ten years from 42.9% in 2008 to 52% in 2008 before
falling back sharply in 2009 (Table 1.1).1 The sudden downturn in traffic at the
end of 2008 resulted in a widespread grounding of freighter aircraft without
such a removal of the capacity offered on passenger flights. This led to the
greater share on passenger services, with part of this lost in 2010 and more
4 Air cargo traffic and capacity
Table 1.1 International world cargo traffic by type of service, 1999, 2008, 2009 and 2015

1999 2008 2009 2015

Cargo tonne-kms carried (m)

All-cargo flights 39,010 74,345 62,516 80,450
All flights 90,882 142,858 128,763 171,896
% all-cargo 42.9 52.0 48.6 46.8
Flights (000)
All-cargo flights 282 456 410 371
All flights 5,062 6,491 6,175 8,367
% all-cargo 5.6 7.0 6.6 4.4
Average tonnes carried per flight
All-cargo flights 54.0 55.9 47.0 43.7
Passenger flights 5.3 4.8 4.6 4.4
Cargo weight load factor (%)
All-cargo flights 70.7 67.6 68.2 65.7
Passenger flights 45.4 42.1 42.0 36.3

Source: IATA World Air Transport Statistics

recently as some of the freighters were brought back into operation. However,
until 2016 few additional deliveries of new freighters had taken place.
As might be expected a negligible amount of international mail goes on
freighter aircraft. Mail is almost all carried under contract with combination
carriers with international wide-bodied passenger flights to a large number of
destinations worldwide. While the integrators carry domestic mail, they carry
next to no international mail, a market that is distinct from international
express in which they are the dominant form of transport.
The large difference in the loads carried on passenger and cargo flights is
reflected in the lower share of flights that are accounted for by all-cargo
operations, each one offering a much larger capacity. The average load on
freighters did not increase greatly between 1999 and 2008, and dropped in
2009 and fell further in 2015. The average capacity offered by freighters in
tonnes dropped between 2008 and 2015, suggesting that more larger B747s
were grounded (and retired) than smaller freighters (see Chapter 7 for
typical capacities of the various freighter aircraft). The average load carried
on passenger flights remained very low, despite a small increase in 2015.
One reason for this is the rapid expansion and increasing weight of low-
cost airlines which carry little or no cargo in the lower decks of their
passenger flights. The other reason is the higher load factors and longer
sectors operated by long-haul passenger flights which add more checked
baggage to the lower deck holds, thus displacing cargo, and the increasing
fuel loads which also reduce the cargo payload available. Low load factors
 Air cargo traffic and capacity 5
in the lower holds of passenger flights is another consequence, although the
level may be due to the reporting of theoretical rather than actual
capacities.
Table 1.2 shows a similar trend for domestic services, but with a smaller
share of traffic on freighters in 2015. This is heavily influenced by US domestic
operations where integrators (operating only freighters) take a much larger
share of the market. This is also evident in the lower average loads per flight,
since the integrators operate smaller aircraft domestically to feed their hub
operations. Also the absence of wide-bodied aircraft on domestic services
means that the capacity available is limited to narrow-bodied holds, often
offering less than one tonne for cargo. Load factors on domestic freighters tend
to be less than on international flights, but this is compensated by higher yields.
The average load factor in the lower decks of passenger flights has remained
extremely low, again reflecting the policy of many low-cost airlines not to
carry lower deck cargo.

1.1.2 Regional route traffic

Major international trade lanes

Figure 1.3 gives a picture of world international freight traffic by trade lane.
Flows which are close to zero have been omitted. Because this is interna-
tional traffic the large market within the US has not been included, and

Table 1.2 World cargo traffic, domestic services, 1999, 2008, 2009 and 2015

1999 2008 2009 2015

Cargo tonne-kms carried (m)

All-cargo flights 11,492 15,295 13,568 10,117
All flights 20,677 23,788 22,146 18,990
% all-cargo 55.6 64.3 61.3 53.3
Flights (000)
All-cargo flights 440 417 371 304
All flights 10,790 9,592 9,620 12,339
% all-cargo 4.1 4.3 3.9 2.5
Average tonnes carried per flight
All-cargo flights 26.8 32.7 29.0 29.3
Passenger flights 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.2
Cargo weight load factor (%)
All-cargo flights 57.5 57.5 58.7 69.0
Passenger flights 19.8 20.0 20.2 n/a

Source: IATA World Air Transport Statistics

6 Air cargo traffic and capacity

Europe
9.8% 2.0% 19.9%
North America North America
1.2%
5.1% 20.0%
Asia
20.0% 1.2% Asia
Middle East
0.5% 9.7%
0.6% 6.2%
Central America 2.2%
SW Pacific 0.1% 2.8%
1.0% 2.7% 1.5%
0.2% 0.6%
Africa SW Pacific
2.1% 0.2%
South America 0.1%
0.4%

Figure 1.3 Distribution of world international freight tonne-km traffic by trade lane, 2016
Source: IATA World Air Transport Statistics, 2017

even trans-border flows within North America do not amount to much

since most cargo is trucked. It can be seen that the vast majority of air
cargo is carried in the northern hemisphere, in both East-West and West-
East directions. North-South traffic is fairly small.
Over the past ten years freight tonne-kms carried in short-haul markets has
increased slightly faster (+ 4.7% a year) compared to long-haul markets
(+4.4% a year). The former were also slightly less badly hit by the 2009
slump. The three main air trade lanes are discussed next, accounting for just
over 50% of total international freight tonne-kms in 2016. These are
followed by the Asian intra-regional market with almost 10%. The next
largest routes are between the Middle East and Europe and Asia with 6% and
5% respectively.

Transpacific
In 2015 air exports from Asia to North America were estimated to have been
67% higher in terms of tonne-kms than imports from North America
(Boeing, 2016). This poses problems for achieving high return trip load
factors, and often results in excess capacity in one direction and/or a shortage
in the other. This in turn leads to lower yields where demand is lower and
vice versa. MergeGlobal (2006) reported a larger imbalance in 2005, with
standard cargo over 80% higher eastbound, and express cargo 60% higher
than westbound. Individual countries often display even more extreme
imbalances, and this is worse at the city-pair level. In 2016, one of the
largest country pairs across the Pacific, Hong Kong/USA recorded eastbound
traffic that was 2.1 times westbound. China/USA eastbound was 2.1 times
and Republic of Korea/USA 1.4 times (IATA, 2017).
 Air cargo traffic and capacity 7
North Atlantic
In 2005, air exports from North America to Europe were broadly similar to
imports from Europe. The dollar/euro exchange rate was a key factor in
westbound flows, but its influence overall had diminished with greater EU
integration. By 2015 there was a small imbalance with Europe to the USA and
Canada growing by 2.4% a year over the last ten years to 2015, and North
America to Europe by only 1.3%. In 2015 UK/USA routes as a whole
recorded westbound traffic that was 1.4 times eastbound. Three European
countries – Germany, France and the UK – accounted for just over 50% of the
total tonnage on these routes (Boeing, 2016).

Europe/Asia
In 2007, air exports from Asia to Europe were estimated to have been 74%
larger than imports from Europe. This had fallen to 71% in 2015 with Europe
to Asia growing by 2.9% a year over the 15 years to 2015, and Asia to Europe
by only 2.6%. Individual countries can be even more out of balance, and at the
city-pair level worse still. For example, in 2007 freight traffic carried from
Tokyo to Amsterdam was 42% higher than the flow in the opposite direction,
with this magnitude of imbalance far from atypical. Sometimes imbalances are
worse for some carriers on a particular route. For example, British Airways’
exports from London Heathrow to Tokyo in 2006 were 6,160 tonnes, not too
different from their imports from Tokyo of 6,776 tonnes (a 10% difference).
However, on the same sector, Japan Airlines carried 64% more exports to the
UK than imports to Japan, and All Nippon 63% more. Virgin Atlantic had a
19% imbalance on the same route. Germany/Asian routes as a whole recorded
2016 westbound traffic that was almost identical to eastbound, with Germany’s
exports of machinery helping to offset imports of Chinese consumer goods.
Europe/Asia air cargo has increased by 6.2% a year between 1999 and 2008
compared to world growth of only 4.5%. Surprisingly its traffic fell by only
13% in 2009 over 2008, compared to the world downturn of 16%. Its share of
world international traffic increased from 22% in 1999 to almost 27% in 2009,
falling back to 20% in 2016 (see Figure 1.3).

Intra-Europe
Most airport to airport ‘air cargo’ in Europe is carried on trucks. These are
operated by airlines (usually contracted out to firms such as Rutges or DVS)
and most of this traffic feeds their long-haul flights at their hub airports.
Boeing estimated that the number of weekly flights of this nature rose from
3,870 in 2002 to 11,497 in 2007 (Boeing, 2008). This would amount to
600,000 trips a year in 2007. Each truck might average three or four ULDs or
around 10 tonnes of cargo giving a total of six million tonnes a year. It is hard
to verify this figure since few airlines or airports report such data. Some of the
8 Air cargo traffic and capacity
non-hub German airports handle significant amounts of trucked cargo,
accounting for 70% of total cargo at Stuttgart Airport (Horst, 2009). At
another German airport, Hanover, most of the air cargo is consolidated on
airport and trucked to a major air cargo hub.
Table 1.3 (last two columns) shows how the total tonnes of intra-EU cargo are
flown between the major member countries. Over the past ten years the UK and

Table 1.3 EU air cargo tonnes carried, 2016 vs 2006

Tonnes Total international Intra-EU international

2006 2016 2006 2016

Austria 227,924 245,961 68,023 76,702

Belgium 1,125,018 1,153,628 479,929 385,214
Bulgaria n/a 32,975 n/a 15,242
Croatia n/a 7,046 n/a 5,300
Cyprus 43,604 28,429 33,320 19,711
Czech Republic 57,048 77,494 37,020 36,462
Denmark 6,694 230,228 5,694 80,221
Estonia 10,053 13,863 5,522 8,357
Finland 118,429 183,132 63,004 71,091
France 1,419,951 2,332,209 264,475 656,022
Germany 3,267,911 4,515,589 760,951 1,215,083
Greece 90,762 64,414 62,377 40,560
Hungary 89,957 77,507 25,297 47,287
Ireland 111,639 138,076 70,415 69,382
Italy 764,048 940,274 312,891 287,655
Latvia 11,714 17,922 5,202 10,478
Lithuania 12,668 19,208 6,422 15,040
Luxembourg 633,663 804,267 61,542 104,450
Malta 18,079 15,689 15,101 11,039
Netherlands 1,620,370 1,754,564 106,936 124,101
Poland 32,028 109,962 17,920 61,037
Portugal 110,307 110,868 64,054 47,397
Romania 20,256 37,151 16,359 29,274
Slovakia 5,390 23,028 843 20,831
Slovenia 8,484 9,005 6,564 8,126
Spain 369,172 561,161 173,964 186,900
Sweden n/a 132,179 n/a 58,859
United Kingdom n/a 2,407,537 454,401 472,038
European Union (28 12,423,589 16,043,366
countries)

Source: Eurostat (avia_gooc)

 Air cargo traffic and capacity 9
the Netherlands increased very little, with France and to a lesser extent Germany
growing strongly (both from a relatively high base. Most of this will be carried on
integrator feeder flights, usually with small aircraft, in the lower decks of the few
passenger wide-bodied aircraft flights operated or on the first sector of a long-haul
freighter flight. Thus it appears that air cargo hubs in France (Paris) and Germany
(Frankfurt) gained at the expense of UK (Heathrow).
The Eurostat data in Table 1.3 are based on air cargo flows between the EU
countries and from EU to non-EU countries. On the other hand the ICAO
regional statistics record the total traffic carried by airlines registered and based in
those countries and regions.

Intra-Asia
Air cargo carried on routes within Asia rose by 4.9% a year over the 20 years to
2015, with a below average fall of 13.6% in the year 2009. It accounted for 9.7%
of the world total in 2016 up from 7.7% in 1999. The country flows within Asia
with the most air freight connect Japan with large trading centres in Hong Kong,
Taiwan and Korea, and more recently China. Most of these international routes
are relatively long sectors and over water such that the opportunities for shipping
goods by truck are limited. However, the two airport cargo terminal operators at
Hong Kong International Airport have a bonded truck service to and from the
Chinese mainland covering 17 destinations.

By region/country of airline registration

Table 1.4 shows the distribution of freight tonne-kms by region of registration
of airline, split into international and domestic operations. The Asian carriers
take the largest share of international traffic, led by large cargo operators such
as Korean Air, China Airlines and Singapore Airlines. This share is likely to
increase further as the Chinese airlines take a larger share of their markets.
European airlines take second place, with their larger freighter operators such

Table 1.4 Freight tonne-kms by region of airline registration/domicile, 2016

International Domestic Total

Europe 27.1 2.9 23.8

Africa 1.8 0.3 1.6
Middle East 15.8 0.2 13.7
Asia and Pacific 37.9 33.1 37.3
North America 14.6 60.7 20.8
Latin America and Caribbean 2.7 2.9 2.8
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: IATA WATS 2017

10 Air cargo traffic and capacity
as Air France-KLM, Lufthansa and Cargolux. The North American combina-
tion carriers tend not to operate freighters, and the integrators’ share of both
the express and general cargo market is quite low. This depresses the interna-
tional share taken by North American markets. The US is, however, still the
largest country of registration in a ranking of international freight tonne-kms,
followed by Hong Kong,2 Germany, Singapore, Japan and Korea.
Middle Eastern carriers such as Emirates have increased their regional share
of international air cargo from 4.4% in 2000 to 15.8% in 2016, with a
significant number of large freighters being added to their fleets.
The top five cargo markets out of China were Japan, USA, Republic of Korea,
Hong Kong and Taiwan, each with between 200,000 and 400,000 tonnes in
2016. Germany was the leading hub in Europe for this traffic with 165,000
tonnes. The United Arab Emirates (Dubai and Abu Dhabi) was the top Middle
Eastern destination from China with 126,000 tonnes, followed closely by Qatar.
Domestic markets are dominated by the US and some carriers in Asian
countries. Japan and China have relatively large domestic markets which are
always reserved for carriers registered and based there. Europe’s domestic
markets are limited to the larger countries such as France, Germany and the
UK and here almost all cargo is trucked.

1.2 Air cargo and the economic cycle

The ratio of trade growth to GDP growth remained close to 1.5 between the 1950s
and the end of the 1980s, increasing to 2.0 during the 1990s and second half of the
2000s. However, since the 2008 banking crisis this ratio has dropped down to 1.0
after the 2010 rebound. Furthermore, containerised maritime trade rose faster than
maritime trade overall, with the former growing by 9.5% a year between 1987 and
2006, and the latter by only 4.1% a year. On the other hand air trade expanded
more slowly than world trade and certainly than containerised maritime trade. Air
trade tends to fall faster than world trade at the start of the economic downturn, but
starts to increase faster on the up-cycle (IATA, 2009). The container penetration in
international maritime transport had increased by almost 10% over the past decade;
but this trend has slowed considerably more recently. In terms of value, contain-
erised cargo accounts for about 60% of all world seaborne trade; and international
seaborne trade carried by container ships loaded more than 1.6 billion tonnes of
cargo in 2014 (compared to international air freight tonnes of 52m).
Total world scheduled freight tonne-kms were closely correlated to both
world trade and GDP over the period 1972 to 2008. However, taking the
more recent data for 2005 to 2016 gives a closer correlation using world
merchandise trade volume; this gives a good statistical fit, with an adjusted R2
of 0.73, and a high t-ratio for the explanatory variable. The coefficient for
both GDP and trade was just below 1 which means that air traffic has increased
by 2% for each 1% increase in trade growth.
The slower growth of air cargo versus ocean containerised shipping seems to
indicate a longer-term loss of market share to surface transport. IATA points out
 Air cargo traffic and capacity 11
that this can partly be explained by faster handling at ports and the increasing
speed of ocean liners, but it may also be due to the use for air cargo of tonne-
kms to measure the relative trends. As the nature of shipments carried by air
changes to lighter capital and especially electronic goods the growth of air trade
expressed in tonne-kms slows more than in tonnes because of the higher impact
on traffic on relatively long-haul sectors (e.g. Asia to North America).
Air trade data is usually published before global GDP or trade data. It is thus
often used as a proxy for turning points in the world economic and trade cycle.
This is not to say it is a leading indicator, since it tends to move together with
international trade. However, in the 2008 cyclical downturn air cargo did lead the
downturn in international trade by four to five months. Another attempt to
identify turning points in the economic cycle is the ‘Composite Leading Indicator’
published by the OECD. This is essentially the index of industrial production that
is available on a monthly basis earlier than other national statistics. For the OECD
Europe region this index was 100 in May 2008, falling over the next months to
96.7 in December 2008. This 3 point fall occurred at the same time as air cargo
volumes were falling, but it did not predict the magnitude and severity of the
downturn in international trade.
Purchasing managers’ confidence is sometimes used as an early indicator of air
freight upturns or downturns, leading by two or three months. Manufacturers’
inventory to sales ratio reductions are often associated with increases in air freight
traffic and vice versa (Figure 1.4). This was especially the case following the
banking crisis 2009 downturn in freight traffic. This makes sense since when
inventory gets too low restocking takes place and this might initially be best done
by using air freight. However, over the period 2006 to 2016, apart from the
immediate aftermath of the banking crisis, the two indicators seem to have been
positively correlated. It should be added that the US sales to inventory ratio
declined from 1.6 in 1980 to 1.3 at the end of the 1990s, a period that coincided
with strong cargo growth, especially from express shipments. Lower inventory
levels were possible through the provision of more reliable air cargo services. The
recent turbulent period upset this trend, but it would appear that the 1.3 level to
which the ratio has returned is the longer-term minimum level.
The onset of the 2008/09 recession led to the emergence of a huge
inventory overhang for manufacturers and retailers, as consumers of finished
goods cut their expenditure sharply. Air trade tumbled since inventory levels
rose fast and there was little need to air freight final or intermediate goods until
the ratio had fallen to more sustainable levels. In this respect it is surprising that
air freight made such a rapid recovery.
The WTO puts forward four possible factors that could explain the 2008/09
trade contraction:3

• Demand slowdown in all world regions simultaneously

• Recent declines magnified by global supply chains
• Shortage of trade finance
• Trade protection.
 25.0

20.0 FTKs % change

World ec.growth
15.0 Merchandise trade
% change vs previous year

10.0

5.0

0.0

−5.0

−10.0

−15.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Figure 1.4 Global cargo traffic (FTKs) versus world trade and GDP (2005 to 2016)
Source: IATA and World Bank Data

160.0

150.0

140.0
Index 2005 = 100

130.0

120.0

110.0
FTKs
100.0
Trade
GDP
90.0

80.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Figure 1.5 US inventory to sales ratio vs international air freight traffic (2006 to 2016)
Source: ICAO, IATA and FRED Economic Data, at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/
ISRATIO
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
"viisaan" elämän-ohjeella ja "isän" neuvolla oli jouduttu, eikä tosiaan
kukaan pyytänyt saada tätä uudestaan oppia. Wakaantunut maan-
omistusoikeus turvasi jokaiselle hänen työnsä hedelmät. Ei mikään
"Paavo" olisi ryhtynyt ojan syventämiseen, jos hänen työnsä ja
hikensä ensi "revisionissa" olisi joutunut naapurin omaksi.
Wähentyneet työvoimat, joista sitä paitsi rupesi tuntuvassa
määrässä kilpailemaan kasvava kotimainen teollisuus, pakotti
rupeamaan koneiden käyttämiseen. Nämä puolestansa tekivät
viljellyn maa-alan laventamista mahdolliseksi, pelastaen työväen
yksitoikkoisimmista ja raskaimmista töistä.

Mutta pää-asiana oli sittenkin yleensä virkistynyt henki.

Edistyminen kaikilla aloilla on välttämätön jos tahdomme elää, se
käsitys tuli yleiseksi. Tuntuvasti, ja oikein tuntuvasti, oli tultu
huomaamaan, ettei "isiltä peritty tapa" sittenkään ollut
mahdollisimmasti paras, ja ettei kaikki, mitä kirjoissa luettiin, ollut
pelkkää herrojen hulluutta. On usein ihmetelty, että
kansakoululaitoksemme kohta nälkävuosien jälkeen pääsi niin
huomattavaan vauhtiin. Epäilemättä oli tämä luonnollisena ja
välittömänä seurauksena siitä opista parempien tietojenkin
tarpeellisuudesta, jota nälkävuodet säälimättömällä ankaruudella
olivat tyrkyttäneet. Kirjallisuuden käyttäminen virkistyi luonnollisesti
virkistyneen tiedonhalun yhteydessä.

Selvä on, ettei nälkävuosi semmoisenaan ja yksistään vaikuttanut

sitä vireämpää toimeliaisuutta, jota sen jälkeen tapaamme kaikilla
aloilla. Olihan muita ja mahtavia voimia päästetty liikkeelle.
Edistymisen ehtona on yleisesti myötäiset olot, mutta nämät
yksistään eivät voi tuottaa täydellistä menestystä, ellei kansa
ymmärrä niitä eduksensa käyttää. Keisari Aleksanteri II oli meillä,
kuten kaikkialla, murtanut henkisten voimien kahleet. Säätyjen
kokoonkutsumisella ja avaamalla tien kansan enemmistölle
valistukseen ja sen kautta osallisuuteen kansalliseen työhön, oli hän
arvaamattomassa määrässä herättänyt mielet, virittänyt
luottamuksen tulevaisuuteen ja kartuttanut sen luomiseen tarvittavat
voimat. Ainoastaan siten voimme selittää sen rohkeuden, jolla
kansan edustajat ryhtyivät taloudellisesti ahdingon-alaisena aikana
Pietarin rautatienrakennuksen suureen, mutta monen mielestä
arveluttavaan kansallisyritykseen. Sen menestyminen on sittemmin
tehnyt mahdolliseksi rautatien jatkamista läpi erämaidemme, ja
maamme saattamista jotensakin katkeamattomaan yhteyteen
maailman kauppamarkkinain kanssa Hangon rautatien kautta ja
jäänmurtajamme avulla. 1867 nälkävuoden merkitys semmoisenaan
on siinä, että se syvästi järkähytti entiset tuotantotavat, että se
kovalla iskulla herätti huomaamaan välttämättömyyttä täydellä
todella ruveta käyttämään niitä edistyksen valtateitä, joita muut
suotuisat olot kansalle olivat avanneet.

Siten muodostui tämän onnettoman vuoden tapaukset ja

opetukset varsinaiseksi käännekohdaksi taloudellisessa
historiassamme. Tavallaan saattaa sitä pitää "Suomen kansan
viimeisenä taisteluna" ei suinkaan siten, ettei vieläkin ankarat
katovuodet saattaisi tavata meitä. Kokeehan nytkin tuhannet
kansalaisistamme kovia aikoja. Mutta auttamisen keinot ovat
verrattomasti suuremmat ja helpommat, epävarma viljanviljelys ei ole
enää ainoana maanviljelijän tulolähteenä, ja paremmin muokatut
peltomaat, varhaisempi ja huolellisemmin toimitettu kylvö saattaa
epäsuotuisemmissakin oloissa antaa parempia tuloksia. Wielä on
meillä kuitenkin parantamatta eräs surkea kohta: tuo lukuisa
irtolaisväestömme Kuopion ja Oulun lääneissä. Ei ole vielä keksitty
mitään keinoa sen pysyväiseksi auttamiseksi, mutta ehkei ole
tarpeellisella pontevuudella asiaan käytykään käsiksi. Warma on,
että jos se on rahalla autettavissa, niin olisivat ne yhtä hyvällä syyllä
liikkeelle pantavat kuin Wiipurin lahjoitusmaiden lunastamiseen.
Toivokaamme, että keksitään keinoja ja ryhdytään niihin, ennen kuin
uusi järähdys herättää meitä.

Jotensakin välittömässä yhteydessä nälkävuosien kanssa, vaikka

ei suinkaan minään niiden seurauksena, oli se runsas rahatulva, jota
kiihtynyt sahaliike tuotti maallemme. Epäilemättä vaikutti sekin
tuntuvasti kaikenpuoliseen edistymiseen, mutta sen tuottamat
seuraukset eivät valitettavasti ole kaikin puolin kiitettäviä. Säälimättä
raasti silloinen sukupolvi vuosisatojen kuluessa, ilman sen omaa
ansiota, kokoontuneita aarteita. Kauniit metsämme, jotka olisivat
voineet antaa tasaista tuloa sekä nykyiselle miespolvelle että
nousevillekin, näyttävät nykyään laveilla aloilla leikattavaksi valmiilta
viljavainiolta, johon on päässyt nälkäinen karja vapaasti
mellastamaan. Kun tukit ja hirret ovat myydyt, korjaavat
paperitehtaat loput, niin ettei aidanseivästäkään ole saatavissa. Ja
mitenkä käytettiin rahat? Tukkihuijarit joutuivat itse joukottain
vararikkoon, jättäen miljoonia maksettaviksi heille luottoa antaneille
yksityisille ja pankeille. Ja moni satatuhansista myynyt nauttii kenties
nyt vaivaisapua. Lieneekö asiallisesti tosi, mutta ainakin on asemaa
kuvaava tuo kertomus, että äsken nälkään kuolemasta pelastuneet
maanomistajat juottivat hevosilleen samppanjaa. Surulla täytyy
kansamme ystävien tunnustaa, ettei se sama kansa, joka oli niin
ylevästi esiintynyt kovan päivän aikana, ollenkaan ansaitse samaa
kiitosta myötäkäymisessä. Tätä se ei jaksanut kestää.

Eipä olekaan ihmiselle terveellistä se, minkä hän ilman omaa työtä
ja ansiota sattuu saamaan. "Mitä huilulla ansaitaan, se rummussa
menetetään", sanoo muinoinen sotamiesten sananlasku. Jos mikään
on omiansa häiritsemään kansamme tasaista edistymistä on se juuri
se ylöllinen ja vaatelias elämäntapa, johon metsärahat viettelivät, ja
se näennäinen ahdinko, johon pakostakin joudutaan, kun metsätulot
taas auttamattomasti hupenevat tahi lakkaavat. Näennäinen, sanon,
syystä että meidän maassa on eletty silloinkin kun maanomistaja ei
aavistanutkaan, että hänen metsästään voitiin löytää rahaa.

Tämmöisestä syystä saattaa vielä tulla koviakin aikoja.

Toivokaamme, että Suomen kansa, jos niin tapahtuu, uudestaan
osoittaa kaikki jalot ominaisuutensa. Jos saamme rauhassa jatkaa
meille sopivissa valtiollisissa ja taloudellisissa oloissa, niin ei tarvitse
olla epätoivossa voitosta.
XIV.

Jälkimaininkia.

1872 vuoden valtiopäiville annettiin armollinen esitys

"kreditivilainan osoittamisesta hädän-aputoimia varten katovuosina
tahi muihin erinomaisiin tarpeihin." Siinä sanotaan, että kovina
katovuosina, semmoisina kuin olivat 1862 ja 1867, oli ollut pakko
ottaa ulkomailta kreditivilainoja, joita voitiin saada ainoastaan sangen
raskailla ehdoilla. Sentähden ehdotetaan, että Suomen pankista
määrättäisiin yhden miljoonan kreditivi, jotta viljakatojen sattuessa
tahi muiden erinomaisten tarpeiden ollessa voitaisiin joutuisasti ja
turvaumatta rasittavaan ulkomaiseen lainaliikkeesen, heti käydä
hädän-aputoimiin, jotka lienevät tarpeen vaatimia. Kreditivi olisi
takaisin maksettava viimeistään kolmen vuoden kuluessa ilman
korkoa tahi muuta maksua.

Esitystä käsitteli valtiovaliokunta. Mietinnöstä käy selville, että

armollisen kirjeen kautta 24 p:ltä Syyskuuta 1867 oli säädetty
perustettavaksi väestön auttamiseksi erityinen "hädänapu-rahasto",
johon määrättiin annettavaksi:
 ulkona olevat lainat puhtaassa rahassa ennen otetuista
kreditivilainoista …………….. 1,060,000 samaan
kreditivilainaan kuuluvaa puhdasta rahaa
…………………………………. 56,000 ulkona olevia
viljalainoja valtiorahastosta… 3,322,000 yleisen
valtiorahaston viljansaamiset rahassa. 424,000 ja puhdasta
rahaa……………………….. 1,520,000

Summa 6,382,000

Sittenkun tästä rahastosta oli takaisin maksettu Rothschildin

kreditivi 5,529,150 markkaa ja muihin rahastoihin 1,100,000, oli
hädänapu-rahastossa Joulukuun 1 p:n 1871 seuraavat varat:

puhdasta rahaa ………………………… 12,000 viljaa raha-

arvossa…………………….. 1,162,000 ulkona olevia
viljalainoja rahassa……….. 993,000 saamisia puhtaassa
rahassa………………. 163,000

Summa 2,430,000

Maksamatonsa velkaa oli rahastolla Sm. 400,000; joten todellinen

säästö teki Sm. 2,030,000, josta kuitenkin joku osa oli epävarmoja
saatavia.

Kun valtiovarasto yllämainitulla tavalla hädänapurahastoon oli

jättänyt Sm. 6,382,000 ja rahaston säästö, epävarmat saamiset
siihen luettuina, 1 p:nä Joulukuuta 1871 teki Sm. 2,030,000, voisi
valtiovaraston häviötä hädänapu-rahastosta annetuista lainoista siis
laskea vähintänsä 4,352,000 markaksi (Apurahaston varat nousivat
vuonna 1889 5,542,738 markkaan).
 Waliokunta puolusti kreditivin antamista samoilla perusteilla, jotka
armollisessa esityksessä mainitaan, sillä muutoksella, että siitä olisi
suoritettava 3 prosentin korko.

Tätä valiokunnan päätöstä vastaan panivat vastalauseen

provessori A.S. Forsman, rovasti A.E. Granfelt ja kunnallisneuvos A.
Meurman. Panen sen tähän kokonaisuudessaan, koska siinä tulee
selville ne yleiset periaatteet avuntoimista hallituksen puolelta, jotka
siihen aikaan monessa olivat syntyneet nälkävuosien johdosta, ja
jotka laveammin olin esittänyt eräässä kirjoituksessa Kirjallisessa
Kuukauslehdessä 1868.

"Koska arm. esityksessä ehdotettu yhden miljoonan kreditivi

Suomen Pankissa katovuosien tarpeeksi on niin vähäinen, että se
yleisemmän hädän sattuessa tuskin miksikään auttanee, emme voi
tätä esitystä muuna pitää, kuin säädyille tehtynä kysymyksenä, onko
tästälähin jokaisen puutteen sattuessa hallitus velvollinen apua
tekemään ja väestö oikeutettu apua vaatimaan. Tältä periaatteen
kannalta ensin katseltuna, puheena oleva kreditivi ei ole meidän
mielestämme hyväksyttävä. Me emme tosinkaan sillä tahdo lausua
mitään moitetta hallituksen entisistä hädänavuntoimista, joihin
epäilemättä parhaimmalla tarkoituksella on ryhdytty. Mutta hallitus
niinkuin kansakin on jo siinä kohden käynyt kokemuksen katkeraa
koulua, ja tämä kokemus, varsinkin vuosilta 1856 ja 1862, todistaa
mielestämme yltäkyllin näiden tointen vahingollisuuden. Että
hallituksen runsaat avunteot 1856 ja 1862 melkoisesti heikonsivat
väestön sekä siveellistä että taloudellista asemaa, ja niin muodoin
teki kansan vähemmän kykeneväksi kestämään 1867 vuoden suurta
etsimystä, lienee jo yleisesti tunnustettu asia. Että taas semmoinen
vuosi kuin 1867 välttämättömästi vaatii avunhankkeita hallituksen
puolelta, ei tee tyhjäksi ajatustamme hallitus-apujen
vahingollisuudesta ylipäänsä. Semmoisina erinomaisina tapaturman
aikoina, joita Jumalan avulla tuskin tarvinnee kerran puolessa
vuosisadassa varoa, eivät tietysti mitkään periaatteet pidä
paikkaansa. Mutta semmoisiin tapauksiin onkin erinomaisia neuvoja
kulloinkin keksiminen, eikä niitä ole, niin sanoaksemme,
valtiokulunki-arvioon panemista.

"Suomen pankille puheena oleva kreditivi, vaikka itsessään kyllä

vähäpätöinen ja tarpeesen riittämätön, kuitenkin voisi, juuri
tämmöisinä hädän hetkinä, jolloin se tarvittaisiin, olla vaikea
suorittaa; sillä pulan yleisenä ollessa yksityisetkin tietysti tavallista
enemmän tarvitsevat pankin välitystä, jonka ohessa lisätty
viljantuonti tulvauttaa setelit takaisin pankkiin ja hopeat ulos maasta.
Luonnollisinta siis silloin on, ettei hallitus rupea yksityisten
kilvottelijaksi pankin varojen etsimisessä, vaan sen sijaan käyttää
ulkomaista kreditiänsä tarpeellisten varojen hankkimiseen. Ettei
tämä ole mitään mahdotonta, todistaa 1867 vuoden kokemus, jolloin
1/2 miljoonan thalerin kreditivilaina tällä tavoin ulkomailta saatiin.
Tosin se korko, joka tästä lainasta maksettiin, osoittaa, että
tämmöiset lainakaupat toisinaan saattavat tulla jotenkin kalliiksi.
Mutta sekin laillansa on epäilemättä terveellinen pidäke, joka estää
semmoisiin ryhtymästä paitsi kovimmassa tarpeessa. Sitä vastoin
mielestämme ei olisi ollut suinkaan viisasta, että siinä tilassa, missä
pankki vuonna 1867 oli, hallitus olisi siinä käyttänyt kreditivi-
oikeuttaan, jos semmoista olisi silloin ollutkin. Yllämainitusta 1867
vuoden esimerkistä on siis mielestämme selvästi nähtävänä, että
niissä tapauksissa, jolloin hallitusapu katovuoden tähden kenties olisi
välttämätön, yhden miljoonan kreditivi Suomen pankissa ei olisi
miksikään hyödyksi. Mutta semmoisina aikoina, jolloin ei mitään
apua pitäisi antaa, tämä näkyviin ripustettu miljoona olisi alituisena
yllykkeenä joka miehen pyytää ja hallituksen suoda hädänapua.
Seisovainen hädänapu-kreditivi tulisi siis vaikuttamaan jonakuna
yleisenä valtio-vaivaislaitoksena, laskien hallituksen hartioille sen
huolenpidon, joka on jätettävä väestön omaksi asiaksi."

Ennenkuin mainittua valiokunnan mietintöä otettiin säädyissä

ratkaistavaksi, mutta pahaksi onneksi vasta sen jälkeen kuin
vastalause oli painettu, tulin ajatelleeksi, että pitäisi kuulustella
Snellmanin mieltä asiasta, ja läksin sentähden hänen luoksensa.
Kohta suunavajaisiksi sain semmoisen säälimättömän läksytyksen,
jommoisilla hän sattuvissa tilaisuuksissa kestitti "nuoria." "Miksei
tuota kreditiviä annettaisi, koska ne sitä tahtovat." — Olen koettanut
vastalauseessa esittää syyt. — "Pelkkiä juoruja." — Olisiko teillä
1867 ollut mitään hyötyä tuosta kreditivistä, otaksumalla ettei sitä
olisi käytetty jo edellisinä vuosina? — "Mitäpä semmoisesta
summasta; syyskuussa jo käytettiin pari miljoonaa ja aputoimet
maksoivat kaikkiaan päälle 6 miljoonaa."

Mutta kaikista puheista huolimatta, oli loppulause

muuttumattomasti: "miksei kreditiviä annettaisi, kun ne sitä tahtovat."

Waliokunnan mietintöä käsiteltäessä säädyissä hyväksyivät

ritaristo ja aateli mietinnön sillä muutoksella, että korkoa ei tarvitsisi
suorittaa; pappis- ja porvarissääty muuttamattomana. Mitään
erityistä huomiota ei näissä säädyissä vastalauseelle annettu. Mutta
talonpoikaissääty hylkäsi mietinnön, hyväksymällä vastalausetta.

Säätypäätöksen saamista varten kehotti valiokunta ritaristoa ja

aatelia, luopumalla entisestä päätöksestänsä, yhtymään pappis- ja
porvarissäätyyn. Siitä syntyneessä keskustelussa pyysi Snellman
ensimmäisenä sananvuoroa. Hän tiesi silloin, että talonpoikaissääty
oli hyljännyt mietinnön, ja piti tätä sopimattomana kiittämättömyytenä
hallituksen suurenmoisista avunteoista, vaikka sekä vastalauseessa
että säädyn istunnossa nimenomaan oli ylistetty 1867 vuoden
aputoimia, ja ainoastaan viitattu siihen, että avun-annot saattaisivat
tulla alituisiksi, jos kreditivin annolla tunnustettaisiin hallituksen
velvollisuudeksi jokaisen hätähuudon johdosta rientämään avuksi.
Nähtävästi kiihotti tämä ajatus puhujaa.

"Täytyy oudoksua", sanoi Snellman muun muassa, "kun näkee

arm. esitystä käsiteltävän siihen tapaan, ikään kuin olisi hallituksen
velvollisuus, hädän kohdatessa, ruokkia väestöä, ja ikään kuin se
olisi eduskunnan puolelta erinomainen armon-osotus, jos se tarjoo
yhdenkin sormen hallituksen tukemiseksi tässä toimessa. Tuo ei ole
laisinkaan sopivaa."

"Yksi sääty, se jota asia lähimmin koskee, on hyljännyt esityksen,

sen nojalla, ettei se luule tilallisten vastedes joutuvan minkään valtio-
avun tarpeesen. Jos minulla olisi kunnia kuulua siihen arvoisaan
säätyyn, olisin minä kysynyt: Kutka ne ovat, jotka viljakadon
sattuessa kokoontuvat kuntakokouksiin, pyytämään yksityisille
kunnille lainaksi tuhansittain jauhomattoja, kymmentuhansittain
markkoja? Kutka ne ovat, jotka ovat piirittäneet kuvernöörit
anomuksilla ja lähetystöillä, saadaksensa semmoista apua? Kutka
ne ovat, jotka, kuvernöörin kiellettyä, ovat lähettäneet senatiin
valituskirjoituksia, vaatien noita runsaita avuntekoja? Kutka ne ovat,
jotka ovat panneet lähtemään Helsinkiin edusmiehiä valittamaan
senaatin jäsenille ja kenraalikuvernöörille? Kutka ne ovat, jotka
lisäksi ovat lähettäneet Pietariin kirjoituksia ja edusmiehiä
valittamaan Hänen Majesteetillensa, etteivät kuvernöörit eikä senati
ole auttaneet heitä niinkuin heidän mielestänsä olisi pitänyt? Kutka?
No nehän ovat tilalliset, arvoisan talonpoikaissäädyn valitsijat. Mutta
toivotaan nyt, etteivät he ikinä enää pyydä hallitukselta apua, ei
penniäkään, ei jyvääkään."
 "Tässä maassa on kuitenkin muutakin maakansaa, kuin tuo
tilallinen väestö, täällä on sen kurjat työmiehet. Me tiedämme että
nämä asuvat kurjissa hökkeleissä, palkalla, joka ei anna heille
vaatteita ruumiin verhomiseksi, ja heidän lapsensa liikkuvat puoleksi
alastomina suvet talvet. Ei voi kukaan vaatia, että he voisivat mitään
säästää kovien aikojen varaksi. Kun hädän aika tulee, irtisanotaan
pestatutkin palvelijat, ja tälle väkijoukolle, miehille naisille, lapsille, on
tarjona ainoastaan maantie ja kerjuu. Eipä näy heitä varten olleen
sydäntä eikä ajatusta. Hallitus, siitä olen vakuutettuna, ei heitä ikinä
unohda, vaan tarjoo heille mahdollisuuden mukaan työtä ja ravintoa,
kun heiltä maanomistajat kieltävät kumpaakin. Tätä hallituksen
velvollisuutta ovat maamme todelliset ylimykset, nuo tilalliset,
kokonaan unohtaneet, kun julistavat, ettei hallitus tarvitse mitään
apuvaroja. Mainitsen sitä vastaan vilpittömällä ja syvällä
kunnioituksella, että tämän säädyn enemmistö äänestyksellään on
myöntänyt tämän velvollisuuden oikeutetuksi, kun se ei ole vaatinut
mitään korkoa tuosta mitättömästä ennakkomaksusta, jota hallitus
on pankista pyytänyt."

"Olen tosin kuullut mainittavan, että yksi arvoisan

talonpoikaissäädyn jäsen oli lausunut kiitoksia hallituksen toimesta,
mutta ei yksikään mitään, joka olisi osoittanut muistoa siitä, mitä
omat maamiehet ja ulkomaalaisetkin ovat uhranneet nälän
lievittämiseksi. Mutta sitä pitäisi niinikään muistaa, että se, joka ei
tee mitään tulevien onnettomuuden päivien varaksi, se ei ansaitse
muidenkaan apua.

"Pidin velvollisuutenani vastata Morgonbladissa tähän ankaraan

puheesen. Lyhennettynä oli sisällys seuraava: 'Luulisi, että hra
Snellmanin alkusanat ovat kopioidut vastalauseesta, kun hän sanoo:
»Maata ei rasiteta veroilla sentähden, että niillä ylläpidettäisiin toisen
tahi toisen maakunnan väestö; ei hallitus sitä varten saa tulojansa,
vaan tavallisten valtiotarpeiden suorittamiseksi.» Eihän kieltäne hra
S., että vastalauseen kirjoittajat ovat tavoittaneet samaa, ja sen
lisäksi vielä, ettei kansalle ole terveellistä tottua siihen ajatukseen,
että huolenpito sen toimeentulosta on hallituksen asia. Kuinka siis
suoriutuu hra S. alkulauseensa johtopäätöksistä? Siten, että ne
apurahat, joita eduskunta toisessa tahi toisessa muodossa antaa
hallitukselle väestön auttamiseksi, eivät muka ole 'veroja.' Kun
hallitusta oikeutetaan käyttämään esim. pankin vuotuiset voitot
toisen tahi toisen maakunnan väestön auttamiseksi, niin se kai ei ole
'maan verojen' käyttämistä. Tuo käsitys 'hallituksen omista rahoista'
näkyy olevan kovin syvään juurtunut, mutta ainakaan ei liene
mahdollista todistaa, että Suomen pankki on jonkinmoinen yhteinen
vaivaiskassa Suomen kansalle. Kolme säätyä on hyväksynyt
kreditivin antamisen, se on: ne ovat suoneet 55 penniä kutakin maan
asukasta varten, mutta kaksi säätyä vaatii tästä ennakkomaksusta 3
% korkoa, joten siis ovat vähentäneet avun 53 penniin, ja hra S.
lausuu vilpittömän ja syvän kunnioituksensa ritariston ja aatelin
jalomielisestä ja oikeuden mukaisesta ajatustavasta. Olisihan hra S.
voinut ryhtyä keskusteluun vastalauseen periaatteista. Mutta miksi
olisi hän, siltä kannalta, jolle hän satunnaisesti oli asettunut,
ruvennut keskustelemaan periaatteista talonpoikien kanssa, noiden
kurjien kanssa, jotka matelevat hallituksen jalkojen juuressa, kerjäten
leipäpalasta. Hän näkyy olevan sitä mieltä, että kansa on olemassa
hallituksen kassojen täyttämistä varten, ja että hallitus, kun se
säännöllisesti suorittaa kuukauspalkat, on tehtävänsä tehnyt. —
Minä pyydän saada olla toista mieltä; minä arvelen, ettei ole mitään
rajaa sille, mitä hallitukselta voidaan vaatia, ja ettei se puolestansa
voi enempää tehdä kuin mitä sen velvollisuus on. Mutta
velvollisuuden täyttäminen onkin korkeinta, mihin ihminen voi
kohota, ja harvat ovat ne, jotka sitä voivat täydellisesti tehdä. Siitä
syystä ilmilausuin talonpoikaissäädyssä suuren iloni siitä, että
Suomella, kun se joutui kovimman koetuksen alaiseksi, minkä se
vuosisatoihin oli saanut kestää, oli onni tavata raha-asiansa
johtajana miestä, joka tehtäväänsä pystyi. Waikka en pidä
hallituksen asiana ryhtyä väestön talouteen, ei suinkaan siitä syystä,
ettei se ole sen velvollisuus, vaan sentähden, että se on
vahingollista, rohkenen sittenkin väittää, että se hallitus, joka 1867 ei
olisi toimittanut mitään, olisi täydellä oikeudella ansainnut
ankarimman tuomion. — Sitä laatua oli se kiitollisuus, joka
ilmilausuttiin talonpoikaissäädyssä. Ettei kukaan noussut kiittämään
kansalaisiamme ja ulkomaalaisia heidän uhrauksistansa, sitä
paheksuu hra S. Oliko tilaisuus siihen sovelias, se jääköön
sanomatta. Kaikissa tapauksissa olisi se ollut eduskunnan yhteinen
asia. Mutta vastenmieliseltä tuntuu minusta se hyväntekeväisyys,
joka ei katso itseänsä palkituksi, ellei avunsaaja yhä matele
hyväntekijänsä jalkain edessä. — On kuultu mitä hra S. olisi
sanonut, jos hänellä olisi ollut kunnia kuulua arvoisaan
talonpoikaissäätyyn. Minullahan on tuo kunnia, ja sentähden täytyy
minunkin sanoa, mitä olisin tuntenut itseni pakotetuksi lausumaan,
jos kerran olisin ruvennut kiittelemään. Näin olisin minä sanonut:

"'Kuka oli se, joka, kaiken pettäessä, rohkeni pitää vireillä

luottamusta siihen, että tämä maa vielä oli mahdollinen
ihmisasunnoksi, valtioksi, joka voi kannattaa omaa hallitusta? Kuka
se oli, joka, pettuja sammalleipää syödessään, vielä kynti pellot,
toivoen parempia aikoja, ja jolla oli tarmoa säilyttää siemenet
aitassa, nälkäänkuolema silmien edessä? Kuka se oli, joka
viimeiseen kurjaan leipäpalaan saakka veljellisesti jakeli sitä
kerjäläisten kanssa, eikä sulkenut niiltä oveansa? Se oli tilallinen
maaväestö, ne olivat talonpoikaissäädyn valitsijat.' Niin olisin ollut
pakotettuna lausumaan vieläpä pakotettu lopettamaan ilmoittamalla
sille saman vilpittömän ja syvän kunnioituksen sen jalomielisyydestä,
kuin hra S. esiintoi korkeasti-kunnioitetulle ritaristolle ja aatelille.
Mutta eihän olisi ollut laisinkaan sopivaa puhua 'todellisesta ja
syvästä kunnioituksesta' talonpoikia kohtaan. Moista skandaalia en
voinut virittää. Mutta tarpeellisella maltilla esitin ainoastaan varsin
kiitettävänä asiana, että sääty oikein oli käsittänyt mitä sille usealta
taholta, ja luullakseni myöskin hra S:n puolelta, oli neuvottu 1867
vuoden kadon johdosta, että se vastedes koettaisi omin toimin
itseänsä auttaa."

Snellman vastasi tähän seuraavana päivänä kirjoituksella, joka

osoittaa hänen jaloa sydäntänsä ja niitä katkeria muistoja, jotka siinä
vielä piilivät.

"Että vuonna 1872 jo on voitu unohtaa, että maassamme on

muitakin apua tarvitsevia kuin ne, jotka voivat lainoja saada, sepä
unohtaminen on kaikista tuskastuttavinta. Etten ole liian kovaa ääntä
pitänyt, käy selville siitä, että hra A.M. ei ole vieläkään saanut
korvaansa auki. Mutta ehkä on muiden kuulo vähemmän paatunut.

"Hra A.M.! Käy varsin hyvin laatuun hoitaa esim. siemenen ostoa
surumielin, mutta kuitenkin alistumalla ja tyvenesti. Mutta kun
nälänhätä viikko viikolta lisääntyy, kurjuus ja ruumiiden luku
hautausmailla, teillä ja poluilla karttuu karttumistaan, silloin valtaa
kauhu sydämen. Raataa kuten mies paloruiskun ääressä liekkien
vallassa olevassa kaupungissa ilman pelastuksen toivoakaan. Hra
A.M. ja muut hänen kanssansa eivät näy tietävänkään, että
semmoinen pelastustyö oli laskettu maan hallituksen hartioille. Mutta
sen eteen, jolla oli jotakin edesvastausta asiasta, saattavat kyllä nuo
kalpeat varjot esiintyä uudestaan; ja hänen omatuntonsa saattaa
kyllä yhä uudestaan asettaa hänelle vastattavaksi kysymyksen: eikö
olisi voitu tehdä enemmänkin? Eikö olisi voitu järkevämmin käyttää
sitä, mitä annettiin, ja siten pelastaa ainakin muutamia tuhansia
lisäksi. Jos noita 7 miljoonaa, jotka olivat käytettävissä, — ja tämä
summa vastaa puolen vuoden tuloja yleisessä valtiovarastossa, olisi
käytetty yksinomaan nääntyvien ja heidän lastensa hyväksi, eikä
ainoatakaan markkaa siemeneen, ehkä olisi silloin olleet kaikki
pelastettavissa. Olisiko se ollut oikein? En voi vieläkään tätä
kysymystä ratkaista. Wastatkoon herra A.M. jaa tahi ei — jos hän
rohkenee."

Niin raskaasti kantoi Snellman edesvastauksensa hirveätä

taakkaa, vielä silloinkin, kun kaikki kiitollisina ihmettelivät hänen
ylistettäviä toimiansa.

Mutta tuota kaivattua vastausta hän ei saanut eläissänsä. Olkoon

se hänelle annettu historian edessä. Kun tuiman taistelun
ratkaisevana hetkenä päällikkö on pakotettu kokonaisuuden
pelastamiseksi antamaan jollekulle osastolle käskyn: "antakaa
surmata itsenne tässä!", niin olisi epäilys ja sääli turmiollinen.

Suomen kansan etujoukot ymmärsivät käskyn ja kaatuivat

asemassaan. Me suremme heidän kohtaloansa kuten kaatuneiden
sankarien ainakin, ja annamme heille korkeimman kiitoksemme: he
ovat kaatuneet isänmaan pelastukseksi.
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