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9E
NOVACK/GIBSON/SUZUKI/COYLE
NOVACK/GIBSON/SUZUKI/COYLE
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Transportation: A Global Supply © 2019, 2016 Cengage Learning, Inc.
Chain Perspective, Ninth Edition
Robert A. Novack, Brian J. Gibson, Unless otherwise noted, all content is © Cengage
Yoshinori Suzuki and John J. Coyle ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this work covered by the copyright
herein may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means,
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A very special note of thanks and appreciation is due to our families. Bob Novack would like
to thank his wife Judith and their children Tom and his wife Meghan, Elizabeth and her
husband Paul, and Alex. Brian Gibson would like to recognize his wife Marcia
and son Andy. Yoshi Suzuki would like to thank his wife Kazuko and their
children Takeshi and Mia. John Coyle would like to thank his wife Barbara,
their children John and Susan, and their grandchildren Lauren, Matthew,
Elizabeth Kate, Emily, Ben, Cathryn, and Zachary. Special mention
should be made in reference to Dr. Edward J. Bardi to express
our deep appreciation of his many contributions not only
to the continuing development of this text but also
to the supply chain management text.
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Brief Contents
Preface xv
About the Authors xviii
Part I
Chapter 1 lobal Supply Chains: The Role and Importance of
G
Transportation 3
Chapter 2 Transportation and the Economy 32
Chapter 3 Transportation Technology and Systems 55
Chapter 4 Costing and Pricing for Transportation 83
Suggested Readings for Part I 151
Part II
Chapter 5 Motor Carriers 154
Chapter 6 Railroads 199
Chapter 7 Airlines 229
Chapter 8 Water Carriers and Pipelines 253
Suggested Readings for Part II 284
Part III
Chapter 9 Third Party Logistics 287
Chapter 10 Transportation Risk Management 331
Chapter 11 Global Transportation Management 357
Chapter 12 Governmental Roles in Transportation 397
Chapter 13 Issues and Challenges for Global Supply Chains 433
Suggested Readings for Part III 459
Glossary 461
Name Index 473
Subject Index 476
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Contents
Preface xv
About the Authors xviii
Part I
Chapter 1 lobal Supply Chains: The Role and Importance of
G
Transportation 3
TRANSPORTATION PROFILE: Critical Role of Transportation in Global
Economy 4
Introduction 5
Global Supply Chain Flows 5
The Economic Basis and Logic of Improved Global Trade 10
Absolute and Comparative Advantage 11
Contributing Factors for Global Flows and Trade 12
Population Size and Distribution 12
Urbanization 16
Land and Resources 16
Technology and Information 17
Globalization 18
Supply Chain Concept 19
Development of the Concept 19
GLOBAL PROFILE: EU: Be a Player, Not a Follower 19
ON THE LINE: Port Tracker Calls for Strong Annual Growth in First Half
of 2017 24
Summary 26
Study Questions 27
Case 1-1: Clearfield Cheese Company Case: A Sequel 28
Case 1-2: TEA Logistics Services, Inc. 30
Notes 31
Chapter 2 Transportation and the Economy 32
Introduction 33
Up and Down with the Big Muddy 33
Historical Significance 34
Economics of Transportation 35
Demand for Transportation 35
Passenger Demand 36
Transport Measurement Units 37
ON THE LINE: Cass Freight Index Paints Optimistic Future 37
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v
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vi CONTENTS
Demand Elasticity 39
Freight Transportation Demand 40
Service Components of Freight Demand 42
TRANSPORTATION PROFILE: Uber Freight Makes Official Entrance into Trucking
Market 44
Value of Goods 45
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 48
Environmental Significance 49
The Environment 49
Safety 50
Social Significance 50
Political Significance 51
Summary 51
Study Questions 52
Notes 52
Case 2-1: Highways Galore 53
Case 2-2: Transportation and Economic Activity 54
Study Questions 78
Notes 78
Case 3-1: myIoT Inc. 81
Case 3-2: Vital-E Nutrition 82
Chapter 4 Costing and Pricing for Transportation 83
TRANSPORTATION PROFILE: Disintermediation to Hit Freight Brokerage 84
Introduction 85
Market Considerations 86
Market Structure Models 86
Theory of Contestable Markets 87
Relevant Market Areas 88
Cost-of-Service Pricing 89
Value-of-Service Pricing 93
Rate Making in Practice 99
General Rates 99
Rate Systems Under Deregulation 105
Special Rates 106
Character-of-Shipment Rates 107
ON THE LINE: Werner CEO: Truckload Rates Getting Back to “Equilibrium”
After Slump 108
Area, Location, or Route Rates 109
Time/Service Rate Structures 110
Other Rate Structures 111
TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY: Freight Payment Versus Freight
Settlement 113
Pricing in Transportation Management 114
Factors Affecting Pricing Decisions 114
Major Pricing Decisions 115
Establishing the Pricing Objective 116
Estimating Demand 117
Estimating Costs 118
Price Levels and Price Adjustments 119
Most Common Mistakes in Pricing 121
Summary 122
Study Questions 122
Notes 122
Case 4-1: Mid-West Trucking 124
Case 4-2: Hardee Transportation 125
Appendix 4A: Cost Concepts 127
Accounting Cost 127
Economic Cost 127
Social Cost 128
Analysis of Cost Structures 128
Rail Cost Structure 133
Motor Carrier Cost Structure 133
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viii CONTENTS
Part II
Chapter 5 Motor Carriers 154
TRANSPORTATION PROFILE: Increasing Complexity in Parcel 155
Introduction 156
Industry Overview 156
Significance 156
Types of Carriers 156
Number of Carriers 159
Market Structure 161
Competition 161
Operating and Service Characteristics 162
General Service Characteristics 162
Equipment 163
Types of Vehicles 164
Terminals 165
Terminal Management Decisions 169
Fuel Management 170
Cost Structure 178
Fixed Versus Variable Cost Components 178
ON THE LINE: The Never-Ending Truck Driver Shortage 179
Economies of Scale 181
Private Trucking 184
What Is Private Trucking? 184
Current Issues 186
Safety 186
Technology 187
Driver Turnover 188
Green and Sustainable Operations 189
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CONTENTS ix
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CONTENTS xi
Part III
Chapter 9 Third Party Logistics 287
TRANSPORTATION PROFILE: Key Criteria for Evaluating Potential 3PL Providers 288
Introduction 288
Industry Overview 289
Types of 3PL Providers 290
ON THE LINE: Uber Freight Makes Official Entrance into Trucking Market 294
3PL Services and Integration 295
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xii CONTENTS
Glossary 461
Name Index 473
Subject Index 476
Transportation is the c ritical link in successful supply chains. It is a key facilitator of global
economic development, quality of life improvement, and enterprise success. Effective trans-
portation processes ensure the rapid flow of essential goods across complex global supply This textbook is recommended
chains. Efficient transportation operations keep delivery costs in check to ensure that prod- by APICS® as a valuable study
ucts are affordable in multiple markets. resource for the Certified in
Logistics, Transportation,
Transportation professionals are tasked with balancing these effectiveness and effi- and Distribution professional
ciency goals. They must also manage complex transportation networks and minimize certification program. For
disruptions of cross-border product flows to meet the ever-increasing service demands of details go to http://www.apics
.org/credentials-education/
the 21st century customer. While these are not easy tasks, high-quality work by dedicated credentials/cltd.
transportation professionals is essential for global trade to thrive.
In this book, Transportation: A Global Supply Chain Perspective, Ninth Edition, we
continue to focus on the widespread impact of commercial transportation on worldwide
commerce. We believe that the contents of this book will help future transportation pro-
fessionals prepare for successful careers in this dynamic field. Our text follows the format
of the previous edition with three sections and thirteen chapters. Substantive additions
and revisions have been made to enhance the content and organization. In particular, the
critical role of technology in global transportation receives special attention in this edition.
Part I provides the foundation for the overall text. Chapter 1 explores the nature, impor-
tance, and critical issues in the global economy, which are important to understand for the
current and future transportation systems. Chapter 2 provides the economic foundation
and rationale for the role of transportation as well as its political and social importance.
Chapter 3 highlights the expanding role of technology in transportation, addressing both
software and equipment innovations that drive greater service and lower costs. Chapter 4
offers a discussion of transportation costing and pricing in a market-based economy.
Part II provides an overview of the major transportation alternatives available to
individual and organizational users. Chapters 5 through 8 discuss and examine the key
features and issues of the five basic modes of transportation, namely, motor (5), rail (6),
airline (7), water and pipeline (8). Each of the basic modes offers inherent advantages for
shippers of particular commodities or locations that need to be appreciated and under-
stood to gain the economic benefits they offer. The dynamic market environment that
exists in many economies demands continuous improvement of modal capabilities if they
are to remain relevant.
The chapters in Part III cover a variety of important issues related to the successful
management of transportation flows. Each of the five chapters in this section have been
updated and revised to further improve their value to the readers. Chapter 9 supplements
the information provided in Part II with a detailed discussion of logistics service provid-
ers that support the transportation industry. These organizations improve the efficiency,
effectiveness, and execution of global supply chain flows. Chapter 10 discusses the topic of
risk management, a key concern for many organizations because of the increasing threat
of supply chain disruptions in the global economy. Strategies, methods, and outcomes
for risk management are explored as well as overall security enhancement. Chapter 11
provides an in-depth discussion of the planning and execution of global transportation
with emphasis on trade facilitation, product flows, and information sharing. Chapter 12
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xv
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xvi PREFACE
covers the all-important role of government policy, regulation, and promotion in fos-
tering a strong transportation network. Finally, Chapter 13 explores some of the major
challenges for transportation in the 21st century, namely, infrastructure funding needs,
talent management gaps, environmental sustainability, and fuel management. Each issue
threatens to disrupt transportation flows, reduce competitiveness, and increase costs if
not managed proactively.
Overall, we are convinced that transportation is a critical engine for business growth
and societal advancement, but is often taken for granted until a crisis arises. As stated pre-
viously, it may be the most important industry for all economies regardless of their stage
of development. Such recognition needs to be accorded to transportation in the future.
Features
1. Learning objectives in the beginning of each chapter provide students with an over-
all perspective of chapter material and serve to establish a baseline for a working
knowledge of the topics that follow.
2. Transportation Profile boxes are the opening vignettes at the beginning of each
chapter that introduce students to the chapter’s topics through familiar, real-world
examples.
3. On the Line features are applied, concrete examples that provide students with
hands-on managerial experience of the chapter topics.
4. Transportation Technology boxes help students relate technological developments
to transportation management concepts.
5. Global Perspectives boxes highlight the activities and importance of transportation
outside of the United States.
6. End-of-chapter Summaries and Study Questions reinforce material presented in
each chapter.
7. Short cases at the end of each chapter build on what students have learned.
Questions that follow the cases sharpen critical thinking skills.
Ancillaries
1. The Instructor’s Manual includes chapter outlines, answers to end-of-chapter study
questions, commentary on end-of-chapter short cases, and teaching tips.
2. A convenient Test Bank offers a variety of multiple-choice, short-answer, and essay
questions for each chapter.
3. PowerPoint slides cover the main chapter topics and contain figures from the main
text.
4. The book companion site (www.cengagebrain.com) provides additional resources
for students and instructors. Appendix A, Selected Transportation Publications,
and Appendix B, Transportation-Related Associations, can be found on the com-
panion site. The Instructor’s Manual and PowerPoint files are downloadable from
the site for instructors.
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PREFACE xvii
Acknowledgments
The authors are indebted to many individuals at our respective academic institutions as
well as other individuals with whom we have had contact in a variety of venues. Our uni-
versity students and our executive program students have provided an important sounding
board for the many concepts, techniques, metrics, and strategies presented in the book.
Our faculty and corporate colleagues have provided invaluable insights and appropri-
ate criticism of our ideas. Some individuals deserve special consideration: Ryan Wilson
(Penn State), Ms. Tracie Shannon (Penn State), and Kusumal Ruamsook (Penn State). The
authors would also like to thank the following fellow faculty members for their insightful
contributions to several chapters in this text: John C. Spychalski, Professor Emeritus of
Supply Chain Management (Penn State); and Joe Hanna, Associate Dean and Professor
of Supply Chain Management (Auburn). Finally, we would like to thank Michael Levans,
Group Editorial Director of Logistics Management magazine for his support in allowing
us to use material from his publication in this text.
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About the Authors
Robert A. Novack is currently an Associate Professor of Supply Chain Management and
Associate Director in the Center for Supply Chain Research at Penn State. Dr. Novack
worked in operations management and planning for the Yellow Freight Corporation and
in planning and operations for the Drackett Company. He received his bachelor’s and
MBA degrees from Penn State and a PhD from the University of Tennessee in Knoxville.
Dr. Novack has numerous articles published in the Journal of Business Logistics, the Trans-
portation Journal, and the International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics
Management. He is also the coauthor of three textbooks: Creating Logistics Value: Themes
for the Future, Supply Chain Management: A Logistics Perspective (8e), and Transportation.
He is on the editorial review board for the Journal of Business Logistics and is an area editor
for the Journal of Supply Chain Management. Dr. Novack is very active in the Council for
Supply Chain Management Professionals, having served as overall program chair for the
annual conference, as a track chair, and as a session speaker. In addition, he has served
on numerous committees with this organization. Dr. Novack holds the CTL designation
from the American Society of Transportation and Logistics. His current research interest
is on the development and use of metrics in managing supply chains. In 2009, he received
the Atherton Teaching Award from Penn State, the highest award given for teaching at
that university.
Brian J. Gibson is the Wilson Family Professor of Supply Chain Management and
Executive Director of the Center for Supply Chain Innovation at Auburn University. Pre-
viously, he served on the faculty of Georgia Southern University and as director of the
Southern Center for Logistics and Intermodal Transportation. Dr. Gibson also served as a
logistics manager for two major retailers. He is an accomplished faculty member who has
received multiple awards for outstanding teaching, research, and outreach. Dr. Gibson has
coauthored numerous articles in the Journal of Business Logistics, Supply Chain Manage-
ment Review, International Journal of Logistics Management, and other leading industry
publications. He is also the coauthor of three textbooks: Supply Chain Management: A
Logistics Perspective (10e), The Definitive Guide to Integrated Supply Chain Management,
and Transportation. He is actively engaged in executive education, seminar development,
and consulting with leading organizations. Dr. Gibson currently serves as Secretary and
Treasurer for the Council for Supply Chain Management Professionals, Education Advisor
for the National Shippers Strategic Transportation Council, and Supply Chain Steering
Committee Member for the Retail Industry Leaders Association. Dr. Gibson earned a
BSBA from Central Michigan University, an MBA from Wayne State University, and a
PhD in logistics and transportation from the University of Tennessee.
Yoshinori Suzuki is Dean’s Professor of Supply Chain Management and associate
chair of the Department of Supply Chain and Information Systems at the College of
Business, Iowa State University. He holds a BS degree in Business and Economics from
Sophia University (Tokyo Japan), an MBA degree in Marketing from New York University
Stern School of Business, and a PhD degree in Business Logistics from The Pennsylvania
State University Smeal College of Business. His research interest is in mathematical mod-
eling of logistics and transportation problems. During his 20-year academic career, he
has conducted numerous research projects with both private and public organizations,
which include Ruan Transportation Management Systems, GROWMARK Inc.,
C.H. Robinson, Renewable Energy Group (REG), Des Moines International Airport, and
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ABOUT THE AUTHORS xix
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). His recent research work has
appeared in journals such as Computers & Industrial Engineering, Transportation Research
(various parts), Journal of Transportation Engineering, Naval Research Logistics, Decision
Sciences, Decision Support Systems, Journal of Business Logistics, International Journal of
Production Economics, Transportation Journal, Journal of the Transportation Research
Forum, and International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management. He
has several years of industry experience. His work experience includes sales, logistics
management, and transportation management duties. Dr. Suzuki is currently serving as
the co-editor-in-chief of Transportation Journal.
John J. Coyle is director of corporate relations for the Center for Supply Chain
Research (CSCR) and professor emeritus of Logistics and Supply Chain Management in
the Smeal College of Business at Penn State University. He holds a BS and an MS from
Penn State and earned his doctorate from Indiana University in Bloomington, Indiana,
where he was a U.S. Steel Fellow. He joined the Penn State faculty in 1961 and attained
the rank of full professor in 1967. In addition to his teaching responsibilities, he served in
a number of administrative positions, including chairman of the Department of Business
Logistics, faculty director and assistant dean for Undergraduate Programs, senior associate
dean, and executive director of the CSCR. He also played a major role in the development
of Smeal’s Executive Education Programs. At the university level, he served as chairman
of the Faculty Senate, Special Assistant for Strategic Planning to two university presidents
(Jordan and Thomas). He also served as Penn State’s faculty representative to the NCAA
for 30 years and to the Big Ten for 10 years.
Dr. Coyle was the editor of the Journal of Business Logistics from 1990 to 1996. He has
authored or coauthored 23 books or monographs and 38 articles in reputable professional
journals. He has received 14 awards at Penn State for teaching excellence and/or advising.
Former students and friends have endowed a scholarship fund and two Smeal Profes-
sorships in his honor. He received the Council of Logistics Management’s Distinguished
Service Award in 1991; Penn State’s Continuing/Distance Education Award for Academic
Excellence in 1994; the Eccles Medal for his contributions to the U.S. Department of
Defense and the Lion’s Paw Medal from Penn State for Distinguished Service, both in 2004.
Dr. Coyle currently serves on the board of three logistics and supply chain companies.
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PA R T
I
The major driving forces of change for supply chains during the first two decades
of the 21st century have been globalization and technology. That is not to say
that there are not additional exogenous factors impacting supply chains and
necessitating changes in managerial tactics and/or strategies because there have
been. However, none have been of the magnitude of globalization and technol-
ogy. Interestingly, they were major forces in the last two decades of the 20th
century as was cited in previous editions of this text. The fact that they continue
to have such an impact is certainly worth noting, but one must also appreciate
the depth and scope of these two external forces not only on supply chains but
also upon consumer and organizational behavior.
Transportation is an important part of supply chain management that has
been described figuratively previously as the “glue” that holds the supply chain
together and is a key enabler for important customer-oriented strategies such
as overnight or same-day delivery. Transportation is often the final phase or pro-
cess to touch the customer and may have a lasting impact on the success of the
transaction. This is the micro dimension, but on a macro level transportation
can be viewed as the “life blood” of global supply chains, and it has been argued
that efficient and effective transportation is the most important business for a
country or region and the cornerstone of a modern economy.
Global transportation systems have been seriously challenged in the 21st
century by high fuel costs, changing capacity, and regulation. In addition, the
transportation infrastructure, namely seaports, airports, highways, and so on, is
not sufficient to accommodate the flow of global commerce in many countries
thus stymying the economic progress of the region. Many parts of the infrastruc-
ture require government or public funding because of the different users. The
public coffers are frequently financially strained because of the many alternative
demands for these somewhat limited resources. Transportation infrastructure
has to “compete” for an allocation of public funds, and the benefits, while real,
are more long run in terms of outcome and value. Consequently, such needed
resources might not be allocated in a timely manner. This is the dilemma of the
21st century. Transportation and the related logistics systems are a necessary
requirement for all economies, developed and underdeveloped, but the public
investment in social capital necessary to not only improve but also sustain the
infrastructure has not been forthcoming in many countries. Hopefully, one of
the outcomes of this text will be a better understanding and appreciation for the
criticality of efficient and effective transportation systems for economic devel-
opment and social welfare.
Part I will provide an overview and foundation for the role and importance
of improved transportation from a micro and macro perspective in global sup-
ply chains. The discussion will cover economic and managerial dimensions of
1
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2 CHAPTER
PART I
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CHAPTER
1
GLOBAL SUPPLY
CHAINS: THE ROLE
AND IMPORTANCE
OF TRANSPORTATION
Learning Objectives
After reading this chapter, you should be able to do the following:
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3
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4 CHAPTER 1
TRANSPORTATION PROFILE
Critical Role of Transportation in Global Economy
Transportation is one of the most important tools or methods that developing soci-
eties or countries use to advance economically, politically, and socially. It impacts
every phase and facet of our existence. Transportation is probably the most important
industry in any country or in the global economy. Without it, we could not operate a
grocery store or run a factory. The more complex or developed a country is, the more
indispensable an efficient and effective transportation system is for continued survival
and growth.
In advanced societies, transportation systems are so well developed that most citizens
do not think about or realize the many benefits that accrue from good transportation sys-
tems. They use transportation everyday directly or indirectly. It provides the thoroughfare
for commerce, the means of travel locally or for longer distances, and the assistance for
many other important aspects of their lives. People seldom stop to think how restricted
their lives would be without good transportation. However, if one travels to an underdevel-
oped country, it is obvious that the lack of good transportation is inhibiting their economic
prosperity and personal convenience. The current physical decay of the highway infrastruc-
ture in the United States and the lack of investment for improvement is a critical concern to
many private and public organizations because of its importance to continued economic
growth and global expansion.
The development of the global economy has increased the criticality of trans-
portation for economic, political, and national defense purposes. Globalization has
brought many benefits to countries throughout the world, but we are much more inter-
dependent and at risk when some calamity occurs in another part of the world that
can interrupt supply of raw materials or finished products and/or shut down a market
for domestic products. Efficient and effective transportation can help to mitigate the
impact, for example, of a natural disaster such as a hurricane, typhoon, or flood by pro-
viding products and services from alternate sources and access to other markets quickly
and efficiently.
The importance of transportation cannot be overemphasized. It is a necessary ingredi-
ent for the progress and well-being of all citizens. An appreciation and understanding of its
historical and economic role and significance, as well its political and social significance, is
a requisite for managers in any organization and other interested parties. An appreciation
of this tenet will be an important part of the discussion in this text.
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Global Supply Chains: The Role and Importance of Transportation 5
Introduction
In previous editions of this text, transportation was referred to as the “glue” that holds the
supply chain together and an enabler of the underlying tactics and strategies that have cat-
apulted supply chain management to the level of acceptance, which it now enjoys in many
organizations, both private and public. For example, transportation management systems
technology along with complimentary software is used by many organizations to improve
logistics and supply chain efficiency, effectiveness, and execution. Transportation has moved
from playing a reactive or supporting role to a role that is more proactive and enabling. In
other words, transportation has become much more strategic for organizations in determin-
ing their ability to compete in the growing and complex global marketplace.
The global marketplace is also changing on a continuing basis, that is, it has become
very dynamic, and is buffeted by economic, political, social, and natural forces, which can
impact a country or region negatively or positively in the short or long run. For example,
the high cost of fuel has impacted the rates charged by transportation service providers,
which in turn impacts the distance that it is economically feasible to transport goods.
The cost of labor can change over time to the disadvantage of some geographic areas and
benefit others. For example, the labor cost advantage that China enjoyed, along with low
rates for ocean carrier movement, had a positive impact on their ability to sell products
on a global basis. These advantages have diminished somewhat allowing other countries
to develop an improved competitive position because of market proximity, labor costs,
or other factors. These changes in turn impact global supply chains and their associated
flow of goods.
In this chapter, the initial focus will be upon developing an overview of the flow of global
commerce and trade overtime on a worldwide basis not only to understand the importance
and magnitude of global supply chain flows but also to gain some perspective on important
changes that have occurred. A variety of economic data will be used to illustrate the impact
of the overall changes that have occurred. The next section will examine the underlying
rationale and economics of global flows of goods and services. In other words, the “why” of
global flows will be discussed to understand the advantages of international trade to coun-
tries and consumers in contrast to the “what” of the first section of this chapter. The third
section will provide additional insights into the factors that can contribute to the economic
advancement and development of countries. The final section of the chapter will provide
an overview of the supply chain concept including its development, key characteristics, and
major activities.
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6 CHAPTER 1
been added to the first group, BRICS, by some economic pundits. Nevertheless, all of this
supports the observation made earlier about the dynamic and competitive nature of world
markets. An important caveat is the potential for disruption caused by political instability,
associated acts of terrorism, and military actions, which can cause a major disruption in
global trade flows.
Figure 1-1 and Table 1-1 indicate export trade flows of merchandise from various coun-
try or region origins. In Figure 1-1, the size of the circle indicates the importance and vol-
ume of exports on a worldwide basis. It is interesting to note the large number of exporting
countries and the big differences in the volume. Table 1-1 shows the value of world exports
in U.S. dollars. China is clearly number one for exports of merchandise and the United States
is second, but what may be surprising is Germany being third. They are relatively close to
the United States in terms of the value of their exports. If we added up the value of exports
for all the EU countries, it would by far exceed the United States (about double). The EU
also compares favorably to the Asian block of countries in terms of exports.
Figure 1-2 and Table 1-2 show the import trade flows of merchandise into various
countries and regions. Figure 1-2 is interesting because it is a visual representation of the
magnitude of the value of imports and provides some perspective of the differences in the
world markets. In terms of regions, Exhibit 1-2 indicates that Asia is the largest importing
region and is followed by the EU. North America is third in terms of the value of imports.
Among individual countries, the United States is the largest importer, followed by China
and then Germany.
A comparison of relative shares of imports and exports provides some additional per-
spectives. China’s share of global exports in terms of value is 13.8 percent and their share of
imports is 10.1 percent making them a net exporter, whereas the United States by compari-
son is a net importer with 9.1 percent of merchandise exports and 13.8 percent of the global
imports. Germany is also a net exporter with exports representing 8.1 percent of the global
Economy Million US
Dollars
China 2,209,626.00
Germany United States 1,578,971.70
Germany 1,452,795.40
Japan 715,097.20
United States European Japan Netherlands 663,524.30
Union (28)
France 579,646.90
China
Korea, 559,632.00
Republic of
United 541,348.00
Kingdom
Hong Kong, 535,546.00
China
Russian 523,327.00
Federation
Italy 517,673.30
Belgium 468,817.80
Reporting country
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Global Supply Chains: The Role and Importance of Transportation 7
Economy Million US
Dollars
United States 2,329,059.80
Germany
China 1,949,992.00
United Germany 1,188,883.80
Kingdom Japan 833,166.10
United States European France 681,016.00
Union (28)
China United 655,318.60
Kingdom
Hong Kong, 622,276.40
China
Netherlands 589,768.10
Korea, 515,586.00
Republic of
Italy 477,391.50
Canada 474,270.00
India 466,042.10
Reporting country Belgium 450,706.00
total with imports of 6.3 percent of the total. There are economic implications associated
with these differences, but the merchandise flows do not provide a complete economic
picture because the value of services imported and exported are also important for the bal-
ance of payments of individual countries. However, the focus of this text is obviously upon
merchandise flows.
The importance of the so-called developed countries/economies is evident from the
information presented earlier, but additional insight can be gained by summarizing the
impact of the top countries in each category (see Tables 1-1 and 1-2). In 2015, the top 30
exporting countries accounted for 84 percent of the world’s exports, but the top three (China,
United States, and Germany) accounted for about 31 percent of the total exports. The top
30 importing countries accounted for 82.1 percent of the total imports, but the top three
(United States, China, and Germany) accounted for 30.1 percent of the total imports. The
data presented in Tables 1-1 and 1-2 substantiate the observation about the important role
of developed economies made earlier.
Additional insight can be gained by examining the growth in the volume of global trade
over the course of the last 47 years (see Table 1-3). The 30-year growth from 1970 to 1999
was steady. In recent years, especially the period from 2000 to the present, the growth has
been spectacular, except for a decline in export growth in 2001 and the global recession in
2009. The total volume of trade more than doubled, led by China, Japan, the United States,
and the EU. A number of factors came into play to explain the increased growth rate includ-
ing trade agreements among countries along with a reduction in tariffs, which promoted
global trade and its associated benefits. There was also greater acceptance of importing
finished products that were manufactured in foreign countries.
Traditionally, many countries imported raw materials that were scarce or not available
in the importing country, and they then produced finished products mostly for domes-
tic consumption. The raw materials were much lower in value than the finished products
that contributed to the imbalance of trade among developing and developed economies.
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8 CHAPTER 1
However, that situation has changed, countries that previously imported materials for
domestic production and consumption are exporting more finished products while so-called
underdeveloped countries are participating more in manufacturing, especially of parts of a
finished product. A very good example is the automobile industry. The typical automobile
of today has over 10,000 parts, which can be manufactured in many different countries. Fur-
thermore, the individual parts may be exported and put together into subassemblies that are
frequently shipped to an assembly plant in another location. So a Ford assembled in Detroit
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Global Supply Chains: The Role and Importance of Transportation 9
may have less U.S.-made parts than a Toyota assembled in Mexico. The efficiency of global
supply chains and especially the transportation systems afford these more complex opera-
tions as compared to an earlier era when the auto parts were produced in locations which
were more contiguous to the assembly plants. This is also an excellent example of com-
panies using logistics systems analysis to evaluate the trade-offs among production costs,
transportation services, and inventory carrying costs to arrive at the overall best location
for efficiency and effectiveness.
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10 CHAPTER 1
TABLE 1-3 Volume of World Merchandise Exports and Gross Domestic Product, 1950–2010 (Annual Percentage Change)
16
Year Exports GDP
14 1970-79 6.02 4.34
1980-89 3.82 3.16
12 1990-99 5.75 2.66
–4
–6
–8
–10
–12
–14
9
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
–7
–8
–9
–0
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
70
80
90
00
19
19
19
20
Exports GDP
As indicated earlier, the global supply chains of today allow production of products with
parts being produced in several countries before the final finished product is assembled. A
major contributing factor to the global supply chains and the economics of production is the
efficiency and effectiveness of global transportation and associated services. The improved
global supply chains with faster transit times and lower rates help to promote global trade.
Consumers received not only lower prices but also in many instances better quality food
and manufactured products. In the next section, we will examine the economic basis and
complimentary logic for global trade.
The exploits of European explorers studied in high school and college history books were
often rationalized upon finding high value or exotic products to bring back to their home
country in exchange for their domestic products or valued items. The discovery of for-
eign lands for future settlement was also a motive but with the recognition of the potential
trade opportunities. Obviously, the trading was inefficient and slow because of the bartering
required and the transportation.
In today’s more complex, global economy, there are more variables than the traditional
factors of production (land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurship) that can give advantages
to countries and provide a basis for global trade flows. Some of these factors help to explain
the development of the so-called BRIC and VISTA countries that were previously discussed.
For example, two of the BRIC countries, India and China, have developed and prospered
during the last 20 years because of factors such as improved global transportation, faster
communication with lower costs, population growth, and technology advancement. China,
for example, has taken advantage of their low labor costs, including skilled workers, ample
raw materials, and capital to invest in production facilities. India’s expanding population
and growth in technology expertise contributed to their economic advancement. In a later
section of this chapter, China and India’s advancing economies and leadership positions in
the world economy will be discussed in more detail.
TABLE 1-5 Population by Major Age Group and Percentage Distribution by Age Group for the World and the
Development Groups, 1950, 1980, 2005, 2050, and 2100
POPULATION (MILLIONS) PERCENTAGE
AGE GROUP 1950 1980 2005 2050 2100 1950 1980 2005 2050 2100
WORLD
0–14 867 1,572 1,828 2,073 1,985 34.3 35.4 28.0 21.3 17.7
15–64 1,529 2,609 4,217 6,093 6,680 60.6 58.8 64.7 62.7 59.6
65+ 129 259 475 1,559 2,548 5.1 5.8 7.3 16.0 22.7
Total 2,525 4,440 6,520 9,725 11,213 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
MORE DEVELOPED REGIONS
0–14 223 243 204 202 197 27.4 22.5 16.9 15.7 15.4
15–64 527 712 819 744 710 64.8 65.8 67.8 57.8 55.6
65+ 63 126 185 341 371 7.7 11.7 15.3 26.5 29.0
Total 813 1,081 1,208 1,287 1,278 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
(continued)
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14 CHAPTER 1
AGE GROUP 1950 1980 2005 2050 2100 1950 1980 2005 2050 2100
LESS DEVELOPED REGIONS
0–14 644 1,329 1,624 1,871 1,789 37.6 33.8 30.6 22.2 18.0
15–64 1,002 2,474 3,397 5,349 5,970 58.5 62.9 64.0 63.4 60.1
65+ 66 133 290 1,218 2,178 3.9 3.3 5.4 14.4 21.9
Total 1,712 3,936 5,311 8,438 9,937 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Volume I, United Nations, 2016.
If we examine population age distribution on a macro level, the young-age balance is shifting
throughout the world. In the more developed regions in 2005, the proportion of older people
(over age 65) is almost the same as children (under age 15), 15.3 percent versus 16.9 percent,
but by 2050, the numbers are predicted to be 29 percent versus 15.4 percent, respectively.
Europe will have the greatest disparity followed by North America. The longer life spans in
developed countries is exacerbating the young-age disparity ratio and has important impli-
cations for the labor force in various countries and the needs of consumers for food, housing,
and medical care. Figure 1-3 shows the number of persons aged 65 or older per 100 children
under age 15 for 2000 and a projection for 2050. The difference between 2000 and 2050 is
quite evident. Figure 1-4 shows the median ages for 1950 and 2000 and the projection for
2050—the total world, less developed, more developed, and least developed regions. The
median age has and will change for all four regions, but the differences among the regions
are important, especially between the more developed and the least developed.
FIGURE 1-3 Number of Persons 65 or Over per Hundred Children Under 15: World and Development Regions, 1950–2050
250
200
150
100
50
0
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Ageing Population: 1950–2050, Chapter 3.
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Global Supply Chains: The Role and Importance of Transportation 15
FIGURE 1-4 Median Age of the Population: World and Development Regions, 1950–2050
50
46.4
30 28.6
26.5 26.5
23.6 24.3
21.4
20 19.5
18.2
10
0
1950 2000 2050
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, World Ageing Population: 1950–2050, Chapter 3.
The private sector and the public sector will be challenged by these changes in terms of
the size of the workforce, medical care, and even retirement benefits, but some opportunities
are likely for certain types of businesses including health care, housing, transportation, food
products, and so on. Much depends upon immigration policies, technology, retirement ages,
and educational opportunities. However, there could be benefits but challenges also will
persist. An interesting opportunity could occur with more mobile migration among coun-
tries. The European countries with their “graying” populations could probably benefit with
a migration of younger individuals from less developed countries not only to help care for
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16 CHAPTER 1
the older citizens but also to provide a younger workforce for the developed economies. Even
in the United States, this could be a possible benefit. Table 1-6 compares selected age groups
in the United States for 2000 and 2010, and an interesting group is the 25–44-age bracket
showing that in 2010, there was a decline of almost 3 million people in this group compared
to 2000. Furthermore, it was the only age group where that was the case. The ripple effect
in future years may turn out to be important for population growth and workforce produc-
tivity. We could join Japan and Russia with an overall decline in population at some point.
Urbanization
There has been a noticeable demographic shift in a number of countries with the migration
from rural to urban areas. In 2000, 47 percent of the world’s population lived in urban areas.
By 2030, it is estimated that the number will increase to 60 percent, and the change will be
most rapid in underdeveloped countries. This will cause additional challenges for those
countries to provide the housing, infrastructure, health care, and security necessary for
effective and prosperous expansion. The rural areas will also face challenges with smaller
and likely older populations. There will be opportunities for business to help alleviate the
burdens for the public sector and develop new business opportunities for domestic and
global economic expansion. The challenges will be daunting in some cases. A relatively new
term is the megacity (more than 10 million people). It has been estimated that Asia will have
18 megacities, the United States will have five, but there will be none in Europe.7 This will
be an interesting demographic change with important implications for global trade. The
megacities in some countries, especially Africa, will be faced with inadequate infrastructure,
especially transportation and utilities, to support the population growth.
One of the interesting megacities or a so-called metropolis is Lagos in West Africa,
which is being referred to as Africa’s Big Apple by some economists and demographers.
Lagos has new tech hubs, a new wealthy class, and an exploding population, but with many
in poverty status. The estimated population based on UN data is 15 million although local
officials claim a population of 18 million. In the 1970s, the population was estimated to be
about 2 million. Lagos has developed into a powerful economic engine based upon an oil
boom and a growing economy. The average Nigerian woman gives birth to more than five
children in her lifetime, and the population of Lagos expands by about 600,000 a year. The
growth has pluses and minuses and has many challenges with its limited infrastructure.
However, there are those who maintain that Lagos is Africa’s future, which you can interpret
in different ways, good or bad. One of the critical ingredients needed for improvement is
local and inter-regional transportation systems. As pointed out previously, the lack of ade-
quate transportation will hinder and restrain economic development.
be instrumental in alleviating the challenges and potential crises. Our success in this area
will be of immeasurable importance for peace and prosperity. Transportation can play an
important role in resolving the disparity by moving these resources efficiently and effectively
among regions and countries, but governments and businesses have to provide the stable and
economic basis for this to happen. The expansion of oil and gas pipelines in recent years and
improvements in rail tank cars and water vessels are based upon such growth.
and transportation terminals with logistics and supply chain networks being changed
accordingly.9
Another technology with the potential of having a major impact upon supply chains,
logistics, and transportation systems is digitization of manufacturing with facilities being
run with smarter software using inputs from product development, historical production
data, and advanced computational methods to model and change the entire manufacturing
process for individual orders quickly and efficiently. This will also reduce the required scale
of operations and allow faster responses to change in the short run as well as the long run.
A related technology is additive manufacturing or so-called 3-D printing, which has
been creating a real buzz in business circles, and even President Obama mentioned it in
one of his speeches as being a potential force for positive change in the future to make the
United States more competitive on a global basis. Essentially, a 3-D printer would allow
organizations to make a physical 3-D copy of a product or a part. Despite the buzz, 3-D
printing is a long way from producing a car or making assembly lines obsolete. Material
costs are extremely high for a number of reasons including higher purity standards and the
“middlemen” in the material supply chains. However, 3-D printing is already being used
to produce some customized, smaller products such as the covers for iPhones and some
specialized parts for automobiles. The latter use will probably continue to be the leader for
3-D printing in the short run, but the long-run development of more, smaller, and better
machines will have a major impact on logistics and supply chains. For example, if repair
technicians who travel about in vans with inventory can have a 3-D printer in the van with
one of each part, they could reduce inventory costs and never be out of stock. Many smaller-
scale operations could also benefit with major implications as indicated earlier for supply
chains including producers of products. It would probably be comparable to the impact
that the improved printers for personal and business computers and related software have
had upon commercial printing operations. Some organizations or parts of supply chains
will become obsolete or redundant. Like globalization, to be discussed next, technology
will continue to be an agent for change up and down supply chains making them and the
transportation system more efficient.10
Globalization
Globalization has become a very frequently used term or concept not only in business-
related conversations but also in more casual settings. Individuals probably have many
interpretations and use the word differently in different settings. However, in this par-
ticular context, globalization can be used synonymously with economic integration and
development across country and regional borders. The integration will increase the flow
of goods and services globally based upon the logic of comparative advantage discussed
previously. Also the efforts to eliminate and/or reduce tariff and non tariff barriers will
promote greater interregional flows. However, military and terroristic interruption pose a
real threat to increased global economic progress as demonstrated in the Middle East and
the Gaza Strip in 2014.
The global interdependence can be good or bad news. On the good side, the lower
prices, wider availability of goods and services, land and resource development, and new
employment opportunities have benefited many countries and regions of the world, both
developed and developing areas. However, the benefits and advantages have not been equal
for all, that is, some have benefited more than others, but on a macro level, and one could
argue that the wins have outnumbered the losses. The BRIC and VISTA countries mentioned
previously are an indication of some positive outcomes of globalization. On the negative
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Global Supply Chains: The Role and Importance of Transportation 19
side, the interdependence can lead to global recessions as was the case in 2009 with serious
repercussions felt throughout the world. The economic recovery has been very painful and
has required government intervention. There are still lingering economic problems from this
recession in some areas of the world. However, there have been strong recoveries in other
regions such as North America and some countries in Europe.
On a micro level, the global interdependence has increased the level of complexity
and competition with shorter product life cycles, new forms of competition, and new busi-
ness models. Outsourcing, offshoring, and insourcing have become part of the lexicon of
businesses. The information technology previously discussed has allowed supply chains to be
reexamined and redesigned for more efficiency and effectiveness and even better execution.
The fast or even real-time information flows globally have allowed companies to connect in
sharing information and to collaborate much more expeditiously than in the past. This has
placed a premium on flexibility of planning and operations to respond and adjust to changes
in the competitive environment. Also, visibility of inventory and other assets has become
an important dimension for efficiency and effectiveness. Successful and well-established
business enterprises have felt the impact of the new competitive environment and changing
consumer tastes and needs. Again, it is important to recognize the importance and need for
good transportation for the success of global supply chains—their efficiency and effective-
ness depend on good transportation.
GLOBAL PROFILE
EU: Be a Player, Not a Follower
According to Dr. Riamund Klinker, president and chairman of BVL in Germany, Europe’s
largest logistics association, foreign trade and the international division of labor are just as
important for American economic development as they are for Europe.
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20 CHAPTER 1
Source: Adapted from Dagmar Trepins, “The Glass Is Half Full,” Logistics Management, April 2017, pp. 39–40.
Reprinted with permission of Peerless Media, LLC.
The focus of physical distribution management was on system costs and analyzing
trade-off scenarios to arrive at the best or lowest physical distribution system cost. The
system relationships that exist among transportation, inventory levels, warehousing, protec-
tive packaging, materials handling, and customer service were analyzed and evaluated. For
example, rail and motor carrier service impact inventory, warehousing, packaging, customer
service, and materials handling costs, but motor carriers would have a different impact on
the same cost centers. Rail service would usually have the lowest transportation rate, but
there could be higher costs for inventory, warehousing, and packaging that would result in
higher total costs than motor carrier service. The type of product, volume, distance, and
other factors would influence which mode of transportation would have the lower total
cost. Managers in certain industries, such as consumer package or grocery products, high-
tech companies, and other consumer product companies, as well as some academicians,
became very interested in physical distribution management. A national organization called
the National Council of Physical Distribution Management (NCPDM) was organized to
focus the leadership, education, research, and interest in the area of physical distribution
management.
The 1980s were a decade of change with the deregulation of transportation, financial
institutions, and the communication industry. The technology revolution was also under-
way. During the 1980s, the business logistics or integrated logistics management concept
developed in a growing number of organizations (see Figures 1-5 and 1-6). The deregula-
tion of transportation provided an opportunity to coordinate the inbound and outbound
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Global Supply Chains: The Role and Importance of Transportation 21
Plant A
Storage Warehouse
1
Source: Center for Supply Chain Research, Penn State University, 2004.
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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
22 CHAPTER 1
transportation movements of large shippers, which could impact a carrier’s outbound costs
by minimizing empty backhauls, and lead to lower rates for the shipper. Also, international
or global sourcing of materials and supplies was growing in importance. As will be dis-
cussed subsequently in more detail, global transportation presents some special challenges
for production and scheduling. Therefore, it became increasingly apparent that coordination
between the outbound and the inbound sides of logistics systems provided an opportunity
for the increased efficiency and also better levels of customer service.
The underlying logic of the systems concept was also the rationale for the development
of the logistics management concept, because in addition to analyzing trade-offs for total
cost it could also include the value of demand aspects of customer service effectiveness.
Also, procurement was usually included as an element in a logistics system because of the
opportunity for a trade-off analysis between procurement quantity discounts, transpor-
tation discounts, inventory, and warehousing costs, and other related costs to obtain the
lowest cost.
Supply chain management came into vogue during the 1990s and continues to be a
focal point for making organizations more competitive in the global marketplace. Supply
chain management can be viewed as a pipeline or a conduit for the efficient and effective
flow of products and materials, services, information, and financials (usually cash) from
the supplier’s supplier through the various intermediate organizations out to the customer’s
customer (see Figure 1-7). In essence, it is a system of connected networks between the
original vendor and the ultimate final consumer. The extended enterprise or boundary
spanning perspective of supply chain management represents a logical extension of the
logistics concept, providing an opportunity to view the total system of interrelated com-
panies and their impact on the final product in the marketplace in terms of its price–value
relationship.
At this point, a more detailed discussion of the supply chain is appropriate. Figure 1-7
presents a simplified, linear example of a hypothetical supply chain. A real-world supply
chain would usually be more complex than this example because supply chains are often
SCM is the art and science of integrating the flows of products, information, and financials through
the entire supply pipeline from the supplier’s supplier to the customer’s customer.
Retailers/
Suppliers Distributors Manufacturers Wholesalers
Customers
Product/services
Information
Finances
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Global Supply Chains: The Role and Importance of Transportation 23
nonlinear and have more supply chain participants. Also, Figure 1-7 does not adequately
portray the importance of transportation in the supply chain. As indicated previously, trans-
portation can be viewed as the glue that holds the supply chain together to allow the member
organizations to operate efficiently and effectively as a system. It should be noted that some
companies may be a part of several supply chains. For example, chemical companies may
provide ingredients for manufacturers of different products that will be distributed by many
different retail and wholesale establishments.
Figure 1-7 does illustrate the basic characteristics of a supply chain that are import-
ant to this discussion. The definition, which is a part of the illustration, indicates several
important points. A supply chain is an extended enterprise that crosses the boundaries
of the individual firms to span their related activities involved in the supply chain. This
extended enterprise should attempt to execute a coordinated or integrated two-way flow of
goods, information, and financials (especially cash). The three flows illustrated in the figure
are very important to the competitive success of the organizations. Integration across the
boundaries of the several organizations in the essence means that the supply chain needs to
function like one organization in satisfying the ultimate customer by delivering an appro-
priate price–value relationship for products in the marketplace.
The top flow, products and related services, has traditionally been an important focus
of logistics and transportation and is an important element in supply chain management.
This particular flow is directly dependent upon effective transportation, which is the focus of
this text. Customers expect their orders to be delivered in a timely, reliable, and damage-free
manner, and transportation is critical to this outcome. Figure 1-7 also indicates that product
flow is a two-way flow in the environment of the 21st century because a growing number
of organizations are involved in reverse logistics systems for returning products that were
unacceptable to the buyer for some reason—damage, maintenance, obsolescence, and so
forth. Note also that networks for reverse systems usually have to be designed somewhat
differently than for forward systems. The location, size, and layout of facilities are frequently
different. The transportation carriers that need to be utilized may be different. Consequently,
there are a growing number of logistics companies (including transportation companies)
that specialize in managing reverse flow systems for retailers and manufacturers. They can
provide a valuable service in appropriate situations.
The second flow indicated is the information flow, which has become a very important
factor for success in supply chain management. Figuratively, information is the trigger or
signal for the logistics or supply chain system to respond to a customer order. Traditionally,
we have viewed information as flowing back from the marketplace as customers purchased
products and wholesalers and retailers replenished their inventory. The information was
primarily demand or sales data, which triggered replenishment and was also the basis for
forecasting future sales or orders. Note that in addition to the retailer or final seller, the
other members of the supply chain traditionally reacted to replenishment orders. If there
were long time intervals between orders, the members of the supply chain were faced with
uncertainty about the level and the potential pattern of demand, which usually resulted in
higher inventory (safety stock) or stock out costs. The uncertainty contributed to a phe-
nomenon known as the bull whip effect in the supply chain. One of the objectives of supply
chain management is to mitigate the bull whip effect by reducing the level of uncertainty. In
traditional supply chains with independent organizations, the level or magnitude of uncer-
tainty increased with the “distance” from the market or customer. Therefore, the level of
safety stock increased to cover the degree of uncertainty as you moved back through the
supply chain.
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Äkkiä, kuten magneettisen voiman vaikutuksesta, käänsin
katseeni sivulle ja näin kaksi tummaa silmää, jotka tutkivina ja
osaaottaen katsoivat minuun. Uusi ystävämme oli hiljaa istuutunut
viereeni. Siinä hetkessä selveni minulle, minkätähden olin tuntenut
itseni niin onnelliseksi: minä rakastin! Rahel sanoo: »Rakkaus on
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ihminen. Ei siinä kyllin, että hän omasi hengen, joka ei milloinkaan
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ja hän. Kiertelimme näin kaunista seutua ja pysähdyimme vihreille
kukkuloille, joilta oli kaunis näköala, tai kukoistaviin laaksoihin, jotka
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Kuuntelin koko sielullani ja nautin täysin siemauksin tällaisen
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myöhemmin hänen vanhempia tuttaviaan, jotka melkein kokonaan
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Tästä lähtien oli minulla vain yksi ainoa toivomus: päästä tuon
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vaikutuksen ja pyhittää koko elämäni taiteelle, joka nyt tuntui minusta
siveellisen täydellisentymisen tieltä.
Minäkin odotin häntä ilolla. Tiesin että hän toisi minulle uutta valoa;
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Vihdoin koitti eron hetki. Minun täytyi lähteä hyvin aikaisin aamulla
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vielä vaarallinen. Hiivin hänen vuoteensa ääreen ja otin häneltä
äänettömät jäähyväiset rukoillen palavasti, että Jumala siunaisi
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seuraavat Tasson sanat: »I suoi pensieri in lui dormir non ponno.»
(Hänen ajatuksensa eivät voi nukkua.)