Hypotheses Testing Hand-Outs EN

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Hypotheses testing

Tatyana Zhuravleva
May 11, 2024

1 Type I and Type II errors


Type I error: Rejecting H0 when it is true, which is a false positive. We denote the probability of this
type of error by α

Type II error: Failing to reject H0 when it is false, which is a false negative. We denote the probability
of this type of error by β

2 How do we perform tests?


Assume θ̂ has the sampling distribution

θ̂ ∼ N (θ, V )

1. Define the hypotheses. In this case, suppose we test:


H0 : θ = θ0 Versus H1 : θ > θ0
2. State the test statistic and its distribution, then compute its value. In this case, due to the known standard
error, standardisation of θ̂ yields:
θ̂−θ0
∼ N (0, 1)
E.S.E(θ̂)

3. Define the critical region for a given significance level, α. Obtain critical values from statistical tables to de-
fine the critical region (also known the rejection region)
4. Decide whether or not to reject H0 . If the statistical value lies in the critical region than we reject H0 , otherwise
we do nor reject H0 .
5. Draw conclusions. It is always important to draw conclusions in the context of the original problem.

3 Significance Levels
Definition: Significance level of a test is the probability of committing a Type I error.

UPPER-TAILED TEST TWO-TAILED TEST


α = 0.10 =⇒ z0.10 = 1.2816 α = 0.10 =⇒ zα/2 = z0.05 = 1.6449
giving critical value of ±1.6449
α = 0.05 =⇒ z0.05 = 1.6449 α = 0.05 =⇒ zα/2 = z0.025 = 1.9600
giving critical value of ±1.9600
α = 0.01 =⇒ z0.01 = 2.3263 α = 0.01 =⇒ zα/2 = z0.005 = 2.5758
giving critical value of ±2.5758

4 Hypothesis test for a single mean (σ known)


Test statistic is:

X̂−µ0
Z= √σ ∼ N (0, 1)
n

1
5 Hypothesis test for a single mean (σ unkown)
The test statistic is:
X̂−µ0
T = S

∼ tn−1
n

6 Hypothesis Test for a Single Proportion


p
The standard error for a proportion is S.E.(P ) = π(1 − π)/n. When testing H0 : π = π0 , under H0 the standard error is
p
π0 (1 − π0 )/n leading to the following test statistic, achieved by standardising the sample proportion estimator P .

The test statistic is:

P −π0
Z∼
= √ ∼ N (0, 1)
π0 (1−π0 )/n

7 Hypothesis Test for the Difference between two population pro-


portions
In this case, the test statistic is:

P1 −P2 −(π1 −π2 )


Z∼
= √
P (1−P )(1/n1 +1/n2 )

R1 +R2
where P = n1 +n2
, R1 and R2 represent the number of favourable responses.

8 Hypothesis Test for the Difference between two population means


Variances known
¯ ¯
X −X −(µ1 −µ2 )
Z = √1 2 2 2
∼ N (0, 1)
σ1 /n1 +σ2 /n2

Hence critical values are obtained from the standard normal distribution tables.
Note: if testing for the equality of means, then µ1 − µ2 = 0 under H0 . Hence, in the above equation, we set the term (µ1 −
µ2 ) = 0

Variances unknown and unequal


If the population variances σ1 2 and σ2 2 are unknown, provided the sample sizes n1 and n2 are large (greater than 30) then:

X¯ −X¯ −(µ1 −µ2 )


Z∼
= √1 2 2 2
∼ N (0, 1)
S1 /n1 +S2 /n2

Hence critical values are obtained from the standard normal distribution tables.
Note: if testing for the equality of means, then µ1 − µ2 = 0 under H0 . Hence, in the above equation, we set the term (µ1 −
µ2 ) = 0

Variances unknown and equal


If the population variances σ1 2 and σ2 2 are unknown but assumed equal, then:
¯ ¯
X −X −(µ1 −µ2 )
T = √1 2 2 ∼ tn1 +n2 −2
Sp (1/n1 +1/n2 )

Where Sp 2 is the pooled variance estimator, given in

(n1 −1)S1 2 +(n2 −1)S2 2


Sp 2 = n1 +n2 −2

Hence critical values are obtained from the Student’s t distribution with n1 + n2 − 2 degrees of freedom.
Note: if testing for the equality of means, then µ1 − µ2 = 0 under H0 . Hence, in the above equation, we set the term (µ1 −
µ2 ) = 0

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