SACE No.

687957W - Investigation Surge and Logistic Functions - Stage 2 Mathematical Methods

Introduction
This investigation aims to examine the properties and applications of surge and logistic functions in both theoretical
and real-life scenarios. In Part 1, the properties of surge functions will be investigated, in order to determine how
specific variables can influence the overall function. Following those conjectures will be derived in order to more
efficiently model and determine the data produced by surge models. In Part 2, logistics functions will instead be
investigated, similarly, to surge functions in part 1. Finally in part 3, both functions will be utilized to examine their
applicability in real-life scenarios.

Part 1: Investigating Surge Functions

Surge functions are functions which begin at the origin and rapidly increase until reaching a maximum. Once the
maxima has been achieved, it will slowly decrease similarly to an exponential function. Properties and characteristics
of this function can be changed and modelled in order to deepen understanding and comprehension. In order to
investigate this particular function, calculations will be carried out to determine its role in the world of mathematics
and evaluate possible real-world applications.
The general form of the surge function is given: f ( x )= Ax e−bx
Investigating the effect of A
The equation of the surge function, given: f ( x )= Ax e−bx, was used to determine the values of f ' ( x ) , and f ' ' ( x ) .
Identifying these properties of the general surge function enables further investigation, as to which new solutions
and possible conjectures can be derived. As such, the first and second derivative the general surge function were
identified below:
Table 1: Derivatives of the surge function
The first derivative The second derivative
−bx
f ( x )= Ax e ∴ f ' ( x )=A e−bx (1−bx)
−bx −bx
u=Ax , v=e where u=A e , v= (1−bx )
∴ u' = A , v ' =−be−bx ∴ u' = A (−b ) e−bx , v ' =−b
∴ f ' '( x)=− Ab e−bx ( 1−bx ) + A e−bx (−b )
∴ f ' ( x )=A e−bx −Abx e−bx ∴ f ' ' ( x)=− Ab e−bx ( 1−bx ) −Ab e−bx
∴ f ' ( x )=A e−bx (1−bx) ∴ f ' ' ( x )= Ab e−bx ( 1−bx+1 )
−bx
¿−Ab e (2−bx)

Using the calculations identified in Table 1: Derivatives of the surge

function, the graphs of f ( x ) and f ' ( x ) were modelled in Figure 1:
Function & Derivative of Surge Function, where A=10 and b=4 . The
function in this scenario is given by the equation, f ( x )=10 x e−4 x,
additionally the derivative using the calculations in Table 1: Derivatives of
the surge function, was identified to be given by the function,
∴ f ' ( x )=10 e−4 x (1−4 x ).
Figure 1: Function & Derivative of Surge Function
Further applications of mathematics were utilized to determine the local
maximum and points of inflection of the function graphed in Figure 1:
Function & Derivative of Surge Function.
Local maximum, of f ' ( x ) :
' −4 x
SACE No.687957W - Investigation Surge and Logistic Functions - Stage 2 Mathematical Methods
Surge functions with varying values of A while retaining a constant b value of 4, were plotted and analyzed, in order
to further investigate the effects which, the value of A, has on the surge function, given it is equal to f ( x )= Ax e−bx.

Table 2: Surge Function (A Varied)

−4 x
f ( x )=x e , where A=1 ,b=4
∴ f ' ( x )=e−4 x ( 1−4 x )=0
Local Maximum:
∴ 1−4 x=0 , as (e−x cannot /≠0)
1
∴ x=
4
f ( 14 )= 41e ,∴ Local Maxmimum=( 14 , 41e )
Point of inflection:
'' −4 x
f ( x )=−( 4) e ( 2−4 x)
∴ 2−4 x=0 , as (e−x cannot /≠ 0)
1 Figure 2: Function & Derivative of Surge
∴ x= Function
2
f()
1
2
1 1
=1 e−2 ∴ Inflection point=( , 2 )
2 2e

−4 x
f ( x )=20 x e , where A=20 ,b=4
∴ f ' ( x )=20 e−4 x ( 1−4 x )=0
Local Maximum:
∴ 1−4 x=0 , as (e−x cannot /≠0)
1
∴ x=
4
f ( 14 )= 41e ,∴ Local Maxmimum=( 14 , 204e )
Point of inflection:
'' −4 x
f ( x )=−20( 4) e (2−4 x )
∴ 2−4 x=0 , as (e−x cannot /≠ 0)
1
∴ x= Figure 3: Function & Derivative of Surge
2
Function
f()
1
2
1 20
=5 e−2 ∴ Inflection point=( , 2 )
2 2e
SACE No.687957W - Investigation Surge and Logistic Functions - Stage 2 Mathematical Methods
−4 x
f ( x )=35 x e , where A=35 ,b=4
∴ f ' ( x )=35 e−4 x ( 1−4 x )=0
Local Maximum:
∴ 1−4 x=0 , as (e−x cannot /≠0)
1
∴ x=
4
f ( 14 )= 41e ,∴ Local Maxmimum=( 14 , 354e )
Point of inflection:
'' −4 x
f ( x )=−35( 4) e (2−4 x )
∴ 2−4 x=0 , as (e−x cannot /≠ 0)
1
∴ x=
2 Figure 4: Function & Derivative of Surge
f()
1
2
1 35
=5 e−2 ∴ Inflection point=( , 2 )
2 2e
Function

According to Table 2: Surge Function (A Varied) the following can be summarized:

Table 3: Effects of ‘A-variation’ summary:
Stationary Point Inflection Point
Value of A x coordinate y coordinate x coordinate y coordinate
1 1 1 1 1
4 4e 2 2e
2

10 1 10 1 10
4 4e 2 2e
2

20 1 20 1 20
4 4e 2 2e
2

35 1 35 1 35
4 4e 2 2e
2

According to the summary provided in Table 3: Effects of ‘A-

variation’ summary:, changing the value of A in the general surge
function ( f ( x )= Ax e−bx), has no effect on the x-coordinate of
both the stationary point and the point of inflection. However, it
does influence the y-coordinate, of both of these respective
points, as shown in Figure 2: Summary Graph, Effect of A on Surge
Graph. According to Table 3: Effects of ‘A-variation’ summary:, an
increase in A, will cause an increase in the y-coordinates of both
the stationary point and point of inflection. Therefore, it can be
denoted that the value of A, influences the vertical dilation of the
surge function. When observing y-coordinates of the stationary
point and point of inflection, as the value of A is changed, a
pattern can be identified, which can be used to derive a
conjecture which can be used to identify the y-coordinate of both
the stationary point and point of inflection, as shown below:
Figure 2: Summary Graph, Effect of A on Surge Graph
According to Table 3: Effects of ‘A-variation’ summary:, when b=4,
A
the y-coordinate of the stationary point can be identified according to the equation: . Furthermore, as 4 is
4e
equivalent to the value of b, the equation can be more broadly applied to other surge functions with varying values
A
of b, where the stationary point is equal to . Similarly, according to Table 3: Effects of ‘A-variation’ summary:,
be
SACE No.687957W - Investigation Surge and Logistic Functions - Stage 2 Mathematical Methods
A
when b-4, the y-coordinate of the point of inflection can be found using 2 . Furthermore, when this conjecture is
2e
2 2A
multiplied by , the following function can be derived 2 , which can be applied in surge functions with varying b
2 be
values.

Investigating the effect of b

In order to understand the properties of a surge function more comprehensively, the effects of b on the general
surge function ( Ax e−bx ), were investigated, where A was set as = 10. The results of these calculations are shown in
Table 4.
Table 4 - Effects of B Variation:

Stationary Point Inflection Point

Value of b x coordinate y coordinate x coordinate y coordinate
1 1 10 2 20
e e
2

4 1 10 2 10 20
= 2
4 4e 4 2
2e 4e
10 1 20 2 20
10 10 e 10 10 e
2

15 1 35 2 20
15 15 e 15 15 e
2

Therefore, according to Table 4 - Effects of B Variation: both x and y coordinates, of both the stationary point and
inflection point changed, when the value of b was changed. Therefore, this indicates that the variable b, influences
both vertical and horizontal dilation. Using the data summarized in Table 4, conjecutres can be made according to
the patterns observed.

Therefore, it can be observed, that the coordinates of stationary points, using both Table 4, and Table 3: Effects of
‘A-variation’ summary:, from earlier, that the coordinates of the stationary point of a function can be found
1 A 2 2A
according to ( , ), while the point of inflection can be identified using the point ( , 2 ). To validate these
b be b be
conjectures, they were proven according to the equations below:

Stationary point: Point of inflection:

−bx '' −bx
f ( x )= Ax e f ( x )=− Ab e (2−bx)
∴ f ( x )=A e−bx (1−bx)
' −bx
0=−Ab e (2−bx)
−bx −bx
0=A e (1−bx) 0=−Ab e (2−bx)
−bx −bx
0=1−bx , as A e > 0 0=2−bx , as Ab e >0
∴ bx=1 ∴ bx=2
1 2
x= x=
b b

() ()
1 2
1 1 −b ( b ) 2 2 −b ( b )
f =A ( ) e f =A ( ) e
b b b b
A −1 2 A −2
∴= e ∴= e
b b
A 2A
y= y= 2
be be

( 2b , 2b eA )
1 A
Stationary Point: ( , ¿ Point of inflection:
b be 2
SACE No.687957W - Investigation Surge and Logistic Functions - Stage 2 Mathematical Methods
Part 2: Investigating Logistic Functions
L
A logistic function is given by function P ( t ) = −bt , where L , A
1+ A e
and b are constants, while t is typically substituted for time. The
logistic function is used in a variety of growth models which impose a
limit, where after reaching a ‘peak’ rate of growth, as denoted by its
slope, it can then no longer increase beyond that specific rate of
growth. There are three major distinctive factors in a logistic function,
these include its 2 horizontal asymptotes, which can be found as
t → ∞∧t →−∞ , alongside its point of inflection which can be found
by identifying when the second derivative (P ' '(t ))=0. These points
can be denoted in Figure 3.

L
Logistic functions have the general formula: P ( t ) = −bt ,
1+ A e
−bt 2 −bt −bt Figure 3: Logistic function, first and second
LAbe −LA b e (1− A e )
P ' ( t )= 2 , and , P ' ' ( t )= 3 , where derivative, stationary inflection identified when
( 1+ A e−bt ) ( 1+ A e−bt ) P''(t)=0
L , A ,∧b are ∈ R ,∧ positive constants.

LIMITING VALUES
Lower Horizontal Asymptote

In order to identify the lower horizontal asymptote of the logistic function, limits can be applied, such that as t
approaches -=−∞ , P ' ' ( t ) approaches 0 ,∨is=0.

limit P ( t )= L L
,=
This can be proven as shown: t →−∞ 1+ A e
−b(−∞ )
L L
1+ A e(b ∞ ¿)= = =0 ¿
1+ A e
∞
∞
¿
Upper Horizontal Asymptote (Limiting Increase)

The upper horizontal asymptote represents the function P ( t ) , as t → ∞ . The limiting value of the logistic function
L
can be simply denoted by observing its equation, as the general formula of a logistic is given by: P ( t ) = −bt ,
1+ A e
and thus the functions value cannot exceed the value of L. In order to validate/prove this, limits and substitution are
applied similarly to finding the lower horizontal asymptote, in order to identify the value, the function approaches as
t→∞ .

limit P ( t )= L L
,=
: t→∞ 1+ A e
−b (∞ )
L L , (In this case, the value of A e−∞ becomes infinitely
1+ A ex (−b ∞¿)=
= =L¿
1+ A e
−∞
1
L
small as t → ∞ , until the equation can simply be describe as , and thus the limiting value of the logistic function is
1
proven to be L. The first derivative
In order to investigate the function and analyse its L
¿ −bt
applicability in real-world uses, the effects of its constants 1+ A e
−1
L , A and b were investigated. ∴ P ( t )=L ( 1+ A e−bt )
−1
Investigating L ∴ P ' ( t )=−L ( 1+ A e−bt ) (−bA e−bt )
−L (−bA e−bt )
Through the utilization of technology and functions of ¿ 2
differential calculus, the effects of variation in the value of L ( 1+ A e−bt )
−bt
LbA e
¿ 2
( 1+ A e−bt )
SACE No.687957W - Investigation Surge and Logistic Functions - Stage 2 Mathematical Methods
were able to be determined. During this test, values of A=6∧b=4 were kept constant throughout each function.
To further analyse the findings of the alteration of the L value in the logistics function, the second derivative was
identified through differentiation. This was ten utilized to analyse the effects of L on the logistic function, as shown in
Figure 4 and Table 5
Table 5: L Variation on Logistic Function

L Equation Horizontal t- y-
valu (A=6, Asymptote coordinat coordinate
e b=4) e (inflection
(inflection point)
point) (P(t), at t
coordinate
of
inflection)
1 11 ln 6 1
P (t)=
1+6 e
−4 t
4 2

2 22 ln 6 2
P (t)= =1
1+6 e
−4 t
4 2

3 33 ln 6 3
P (t)=
1+6 e
−4 t
4 2

4 44 ln 6 4
P (t)= =2
1+6 e
−4 t
4 2

Figure 4: Effects of L on the logistic function

Both in Figure 4 and Table 5 denote that the variation in
the value of L, had no effect on the value of t, at the point of inflection, this can be identified, as all given functions
ln 6
had a t-coordinate of , at their respective points of inflection. However, it can be denoted that the value of L
4
greatly influenced the vertical dilation of each function, as the value of L was increased, so was the horizontal
asymptote, and thus proves the calculations from earlier that the upper horizontal asymptote can be derived from
the value of L. Furthermore, this same pattern can be identified in the derivative function of the logistic function,
where although the value of t at the point of inflection remained constant, the local maximum of the derivative
function of the logistic equation was given by the value of L.

Investigating A

Similarly, to the investigation of the value of L on the logistic function, the value of A will be interchanged across
different equations, while keeping a constant values L=3. And
b=4. The logistic function and its first derivative will be analysed
to determine how the value of A influences the functions
asymptotes and stationary inflections.
Table 6:Effects of A, on the logistics function
SACE No.687957W - Investigation Surge and Logistic Functions - Stage 2 Mathematical Methods
A Equation Horizontal t- y- Therefore, from the findings identified in Table 6
value (L=3, b=4) Asymptote coordinat coordinate and Figure 5, it can be observed that there is no
e (inflection change to both the upper horizontal asymptote
(inflection point) (P(t),
and the y-value at the point of inflection.
point) at t
However, there is a noticeable change in the
coordinate
value of t at the point of inflection. It can be
of
inflection) observed that the value of t in the findings can be
1 3 3 ln 1 3 ln A
P (t)= identified by the equation, . Furthermore,
−4 t
4 2 4
1+ e
knowing that the value of b was kept constant at
2 3 3 ln 2 3 4, allows the following conjecture to be derived,
P (t)=
1+2 e
−4 t
4 2 ln A
such that t= . In addition, although there is
b
3 3 3 ln 3 3 not horizontal dilation occurring as a result of
P (t)=
1+3 e
−4 t
4 2 changes in A, there is a noticeable change in
horizontal translation, such that when A is
4 4 3 ln 4 3 increased, the logistic function is moved more to
P (t)=
1+ 4 e
−4 t
4 2 the right.

Investigating b
The influence of variations in the value of b, were observed, by keeping the following values constant A=6, and L=3.
Table 7: Effects of b, on the logistics function

b value Equation (A=6, L=3) Horizontal Asymptote t-coordinate y-coordinate (inflection

(inflection point) point) (P(t), at t
coordinate of
inflection)
1 3 3 ln 6 3
P (t)=
1+6 e
−t
1 2
2 3 3 ln 6 3
P (t)=
1+6 e
−2 t
2 2
3 3 3 ln 6 3
P (t)=
1+6 e
−3 t
3 2
4 3 3 ln 6 3
P (t)=
1+6 e
−4 t
4 2

Therefore, as observed in Figure 6 and Table 7, it can be

observed that the value of t did not have any affect on both
the upper horizontal asymptote and the y-coordinate of the
inflection point. However, it did influence the t-coordinate of
the inflection point, consequently causing a horizontal
dilation. This can be differentiated from a horizontal
translation, as the slopes of each function, as shown in
Figure 6, are visually different from one another, and thus
indicates a horizontal dilation.

Furthermore, the y value identified for the point of inflection

throughout Table 5, Table 6, and Table 7, denote the
L
conjecture y(point of inflection)= .
2

Figure 6: Variation of b in the logistics function

SACE No.687957W - Investigation Surge and Logistic Functions - Stage 2 Mathematical Methods
The overall effects of each variable (L, A, and b) on the logistic function are summarized below in Table 8.

Table 8: Summary table of effects if L, A, and b, on the logistics function

Variable Effect
L Vertical dilation, is equivalent to the upper horizontal
asymptote.
A Horizontal translation
B Horizontal dilation

Furthermore, the conjectures derived throughout the Investigation of each variable is summarized below in table
Table 9: Findings and their Conjecture in logistic functions

Point of interest Conjecture

Upper horizontal asymptote L
Point of inflection lnA L
( , )
b 2

Proving Conjectures

Now that conjectures have been derived for factors of the logistic function, it is then necessary to prove and validate
them. The conjecture for upper horizontal asymptote = L, was proven earlier in page 5, while further differentiation
is necessary to prove the conjecture derived for the point of inflection.

In order to do this, the first derivative must be found, which was initially identified earlier when investigating L. The
function for the first derivative of the logistics function is given by:
−bt
LbA e
P '(t )= 2
( 1+ A e−bt )
The given first derivative validates that there are no stationary points in a logistic function, as variable L,A, and b are real and
positive constants, such that LbA e−bt ≠ 0.

To prove the conjecture, the second derivative must be identified, and then equated to equal 0, such that its t-
coordinate at the point of inflection can be identified.

−bt
LAb e −bt 2
, v =( 1+ A e )
' −bt
P ( t )= , whereu=LbA e
−bt 2
( 1+ A e )
2
'' (−L Ab2 e−bt )( 1+ A e−bt ) −(2) ( LAb e−bt ) (− Ab e−bt )( 1+ A e−bt )
∴ P (t)= 4
, application of quotient rule
( 1+ A e−bt )
( 1+ A e−bt ) (−LA b 2 e−bt −L A 2 b 2 ( e−bt ) + 2 L A 2 b2 ( e−bt ) )
2 2
''
∴ P (t)= 4
( 1+ A e−bt )

2 −bt −bt −bt

−LA b e (1+ A e −2 A e )
∴ P'' ( t ) = −bt 3
( 1+ A e )
SACE No.687957W - Investigation Surge and Logistic Functions - Stage 2 Mathematical Methods
2 −bt −bt
'' −LA b e (1− A e )
∴ P (t)= −bt 3
( 1+ A e )
In order to identify the t-coordinate of the inflection point, the second derivative must equal 0, therefore:
2 −bt −bt
−LA b e (1− A e )
0= 3
( 1+ A e−bt )
−bt
(1− A e )
0= , as earlier identified , L, A ,∧b are real∧ positive∧thus−LA b2 e−bt ≠ 0
−bt 3
( 1+ A e )
−bt
−bt 3 (1− A e ) 3
0 ( 1+ A e )= × ( 1+ A e−bt )
−bt 3
( 1+ A e )
−bt
0=1− A e
−bt
1= A e
1 −bt
=e
A

ln ( 1A )=ln(e −bt
)

−bt=ln ( 1 ) −ln( A)
bt=ln(A )
ln( A)
∴ t=
b
Therefore, the derived value for t can now be used to calculate the P(t), at the point of inflection.

L L L L L L
¿ = = = = =
1+ A( A ) 1+1 2
−bt ln A −lnA −1
1+ A e −b (
b
) 1+ A e
1+ A e
Therefore, proving the conjecture for P(t ) at the point of inflection. Moreover, validating the occurrence of the
ln ( A ) L
inflection point in a logistic function, at the coordinates ( , ).
b 2

Part 3: Modelling and applications

Modelling medicinal doses using surge functions
Both surge and logistic functions serve a range of uses, in fields ranging from engineering, to medicine, and much
more. In such scenario’s data modelling is utilized to illustrate groups of results measured and collected, for the
overall benefit of the user. In such a way, surge functions can be effectively utilized to model medicinal dose and
their effects on the body, by measuring the quantity/concentration of specific antibodies in the bloodstream, in
response to the application of a medical dose.

For example, a range of points on the surge function can be used to represent features and effects of certain
medicinal doses, and their retention time in the bloodstream. When in reference to medicinal doses, the x-axis is
representative of time, while the y-axis would represent the concentration of certain drugs in the body.
SACE No.687957W - Investigation Surge and Logistic Functions - Stage 2 Mathematical Methods
The maximum point of the original surge function would be representative of the highest concentration of the target
drug within the bloodstream at a given time, as shown in Figure
7, and hence the surge functions vertical dilation/coordinate
would be representative of the amount of concentration there is
within the blood of a specific drug. In addition, the first inflection
point on the derivative function, would be representative of the
onset of the drug, meaning the minimum effective concentration
necessary to achieve a pharmacological response, (Highes Hallet,
2018). Furthermore, the second stationary inflection denoted by
the derivative surge function, can similarly substitute its value of
t, into the original surge function in order to determine the
termination of the drug, representing when the drug has fallen
below the minimum effective concentration, and thus informs
medical professionals of when it is safe to apply the next
routinely application of the drug dose. Furthermore, the surge
function can further be studied, such that the area between the
onset point and termination point, is representative of the
Figure 7: Surge function (Generic Model) - Modelling Medicinal
duration of effectiveness of the drug in question. Doses

Although the surge function facilitates the modelling of medical

doses to an acceptable degree, there are nonetheless several limitations imposed by the nature of surge function,
these are as described below.

1. Low Precision
The surge function although able to cover a vast amount of data, is nonetheless imprecise with its results.
The area which it covers in Figure 7, can be observed as the area underneath its curve, and thus can be
denoted that the function account for a wide range of results. Due to the fact that the function does not
account for individual results precisely, it can be described that it has a high amount of scatter, and thus it is
not necessarily a reliable method of measuring the concentration of drugs in the blood stream over periods
of time.
2. y ≠ 0
After a long period of time has passed, the concentration of applied drugs in the bloodstream will eventually
diminish, such that there is no longer any trace of it within the body. However, the surge function is
continuously approaching 0, and thus does not accurately measure the end concentration of drugs in the
bloodstream.
3. Limited application between patients
Although general applications may be able to generate through the use of surge function, in order to
routinely provide a patient with new doses of a drug, this has limited overall applicability, as drug absorption
and retention can be influenced by a variety of factors, unique to each person. These include, the area of the
adoptive surface, vascularity, pH, presence of other substances, GI mobility, Diseases, functional integrity of
absorptive surfaces, and more, (howMED, 2012). In order to illustrate how such a factor may influence the
interaction between the drug and the body, an example is provided below.
- The presence of other substances in the body while intaking a drug can influence its overall rate
of absorption into the body, for example the intake of certain foods can increase or decrease
absorption of certain drugs. For example, the presence of large quantities of milk in the body can
decrease the absorption of tetracyclines, which are a class of antibiotics, (howMED, 2012).

Therefore, the surge function provides limited applicability when used to predict concentrations of certain
drugs in the body, as they can be influenced by a large range of factors, which can influence both the rate of
absorption and termination, as well as the overall retention and maximum concentrations of drugs in the
body.

4. Features of the drug

SACE No.687957W - Investigation Surge and Logistic Functions - Stage 2 Mathematical Methods
Preparation of the same drug are different across different organizations, as such the molecular/particle size
of the molecules given to patients will vary, and influence the overall absorption of the drug, as the greater
the size of the particle, the slower it will move via diffusion, and thus lead to an overall decreased rate of
absorption, (howMED, 2012).

Limited growth models using logistic functions

Logistic functions possess several features making them suitable
to use to model limited growth. For example, in Figure 8, the
number of individuals within a community of 1365 individuals
who had received the latest Covid-vaccine was modelled
(hypothetical*). The horizontal asymptote of the logistics
function serves as an upper limit, as the population of the town
only consists of 1365 individuals, and thus vaccinations cannot
exceed the number. This feature of the logistics function is
crucial for modelling limited growth and makes it suitable to
model such data. Furthermore, through analyzing the derivative
of the logistic function, the day at which the rate of vaccinations
is at its highest can be determined through substituting the
value of days, into the original logistics function. This makes it
suitable for modelling growth, as it enables key features of the
graph to be analyzed and evaluated. Finally, the logistics
function will never reach 1365, meaning that Figure 8: Example Vaccinated population - Logistics Function

x ( Days ) → ∞ , y ( Vaccinated population →1365 ) . This serves as a limitation, as the amount of total vaccinated
individuals can never be recorded on the surge function of 1365. In addition, changes to the population, such as
death or birth, leading to changes in the population + vaccinated population, cannot be modelled using the same
function, as there is an upper horizontal asymptote at a y-value of 1365.

Developing your own models

Surge Function

As the world modernizes, efficient transport is only becoming more and more necessary. It provides increased
independence and the freedom of mobility. And as such, we as a population have become ever more necessary for
vehicles in the modern world, with the ever-increasing distances between home, work, educational institutions,
shopping, and leisure facilities. Furthermore, job-related mobility is of particular importance, with half of all distance
travelled by vehicles in the EU, being related to employment, (ACEA, 2021). With the increasing need for transport
via vehicles due to external circumstances and personal quality of life, the fact that the 87.6% of the households in
Australia own a car is immensely justified, alongside the increase of 946,773 motor vehicles in Australia, from 2016
to 2021, (idcommunity, n.d.). However, alongside the use of motor vehicles, comes along the issues associated with
traffics, which could lead to possible traffic jams and increased travel times. In order to predict and evaluate the
nature of traffic so that possible delays in important travel plans can be avoided, a surge function can be utilized to
model scenarios, so that optimal travel times may be identified.

Peak traffic periods in Australia although vary depending on the area, in general are estimated to range between 6-
9AM and 4:30-7PM (Wikipedia, n.d.). With this information, a hypothetical data set from 12PM->3:00AM was
recorded and modelled, with relevance to general traffic density, being measured in vehicle/per kilometer within a
road.
Table 10: Summary table, Traffic density with respect to time (Hypothetical)

Time 12:0 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00
0P PM PM PM PM PM PM PM PM PM PM PM AM
M
SACE No.687957W - Investigation Surge and Logistic Functions - Stage 2 Mathematical Methods
Traffic 13 14 17 26 34 39 47 45 37 29 21 14 9
Density
(veh/km
)

(Note: Although such findings were found, the given data cannot be
completely analyzed using surge functions, as traffic density may
never approach zero, due to potential cars driving past midnight. In
addition, the application of surge functions in this scenario is
suitable only due to the time restrictions, as if traffic density was
continually modelled using surge functions, then the function could
continue to vertically dilate for extended periods of time.)

The graph produced from the data in Figure 9, prominently displays

a trendline similar to that of a surge function. However, unlike a
surge function, the data does not necessarily approach 0, and does
not begin at the origin, nonetheless using the prominent surge-like
characteristics of the trendline, estimated values for A and b (in the
surge function), were derived, using the data given alongside the
conjectures identified in Part 1, for values A and b in the generic Figure 9: Scatter plot of traffic density with respect to time
surge function equation. (Hypothetical)

Table 11: Identifying estimate surge functions

Point Conjecture Estimate Solving for b Solving for A Estimate surge

point from function.
Hypothetical
data
Stationary point 1 A (6 , 47) 1 A 47
−1
x
( , ) =6 =47 f ( x )= e × x e 6
b be b be 6
∴ b=
1
6
A=47
1
6 ()
(e )
47
A= e
6
Inflection point 2 2A (4 , 34) 2 2A 17 2
−1
x
( , 2) =4 =34 f ( x )= e ×x e 2
b be b be
2
2
2 1
b= =
4 2 2 A=
1
2 ()(34 ) ( e 2 )
17 2
A= e
2

The conjectures identified earlier in Part 1, were utilized to produce estimate equations for the data points plotted
regarding traffic density, in Figure 11, and evaluate how well the functions modelled the data points. This was done
by using the conjectures from part 1 and substituting their equivalent as the estimated points (stationary point and
point of inflection), collected from the data. As mentioned earlier in the limitations of surge functions, they are not
very accurate, as the data points which they are based of typically retain high scatter, and thus limits the accuracy of
the function, relative to the true values plotted. In Figure 11, although the area underneath the curve of the
stationary point function covers the large majority of data points plotted and follow the surge function curve, it
nonetheless can be denoted to be highly inaccurate, due to the large amount of unnecessary area it extends to
cover.
SACE No.687957W - Investigation Surge and Logistic Functions - Stage 2 Mathematical Methods
Upon first glance, the function for
the inflection point seems to be
more relevant to the data, as
although its horizontal translation is
far too high, extending to values
outside of the data points, its
maximum point aligns perfectly with
the maximum point identified in the
data points (6,37). However, upon
closer inspection, when the data
points are shifted towards the left,
as shown in Figure 10, the point of
inflection function is observable Figure 11: Stationary point and point of Figure 10: Point of inflection, graphed with
horizontally translated data points
much more relevant towards the data points plotted. Although this function
inflection graphed with data points
helps to model the nature of traffic density better than the stationary point function, the range of time is limited, as
data points before 4PM are on the left side of the cartesian plan, and thus cannot be modelled by the given point of
inflection function. Furthermore, due to the nature of the surge function, it is unable to accurately model the data
given in this scenario, as they are far too distinctive. Surge functions are observably more accurate, when the data
points given already form a smooth concave trendline, rather than distinctive points, and thus this function provides
more generalized data, rather than extremely accurate data.

Logistic Function

The application of differential calculus can not only be applied to complex scenarios requiring various data points
and information, but it can also be applied within everyday life. For example, logistics functions are able to be
utilized to model the movement of students to their classes at a primary school after lunch. Hypothetical data points
for such a scenario are recorded in below. In this school (Hypothetical*), a total of 560 students attends from
reception through to year 7. The amount of student in class, relative to the time after lunch is recorded in Table 12,
and is modelled in Figure 12.
Table 12: Number of students in class vs time past lunch

Time past Lunch Number of Students in class

0 Mins 50
1Mins 134
2Mins 246
3 Mins 356
4 Mins 509
5 Mins 547
6 Mins 557
7 Mins 560
Figure 12: Scatter graph (Number vs students in
class vs time)
As shown in Figure 12, the data points recorded produce a trend-
similar to that of a logistic function. (However, note that unlike a logistic function, the data points do not approach a
horizontal asymptote.)

In order to further evaluate the data points plotted, conjectures derived in Part 2, will be utilized to model the trend
produced by the data points. In this case, the variable A and b will be derived using differential calculus and
substitution. Furthermore, as the maximum number of students which can be in class is equivalent to 560, it will be
SACE No.687957W - Investigation Surge and Logistic Functions - Stage 2 Mathematical Methods
equivalent to the limiting value and/or upper horizontal asymptote. However, note that the logistic function will
forever approach 560, while never reaching it, (as x → ∞ , y →560 ), however in real-life applications this maximum
number can be achieved when all students are within their class, hence this denotes limitations of the logistic
function, within the given set of data. *Furthermore, note that logistic functions do not have any stationary points,
(as LbA e−bt ≠ 0) and thus their point of inflection point will be derived.
Table 13: Identifying Logistic Equations

Point Conjecture Points of Solving for A Solving for b Estimate logistic

data function.
Inflection ln ( A ) L P1=( 0 , 50 ) 560 560 560
( , ) P ( 0 )= =50 P ( 5 )= =547 P (t)=
point b 2 P2=( 5,547 ) 1+ A e
−b (0 )
1+ A e
−b ( 5 )
1+10.2 e
−1.212t

Limiting 560
=50
value =560 1+ A (1 ) 560
−5 b
=547
560=50 (1+ A ) 1+(10.2)e
560 Substitute A*
=1+ A −5 b
50 560=547(1+10.2 e )
11.2−1= A 560 −5 b
∴ A=10.2 =1+10.2 e
547
13 −5 b
=10.2 e
547
13
547
=e−5 b
10.2

65 −5 b
ln ( )=ln e
27897
−5 b=−6.06
−6.06
b=
−5
b=1.212

The logistic function is as plotted on Figure 13. The function shows

and validates that as x → ∞ , y →560 . The function derived fairly
accurately modelled the trendline given by the data points given in
Table 12. However, as mentioned prior, due to the upper
horizontal asymptote of 560, y will never reach the maximum
number of students, and thus restrict absolute accuracy. However,
the function nonetheless is very accurate with the generality of the
plotted points and can be utilized to evaluate and predict the
number of students within their respective classes, relative to time.
However, within this specific scenario, changes in the limiting
values are very probable, due to possible student coming to school
late, and/or being absent. Thus, new functions would have to
Figure 13: Derived Logistic Function (Number of students in
derived depending on the number of students present at school class vs time)
during the end of lunch, and thereby limits complete application of
the logistic function derived. Overall, the calculations used can be substituted and applied in a variety of other
scenarios to solve, model, and evaluate other scenarios where a limited growth model can be applied.
SACE No.687957W - Investigation Surge and Logistic Functions - Stage 2 Mathematical Methods
Discussion:

Overall, both Surge and Logistic functions were analyzed deeply in order to identify conjectures and other findings,
which may be applied to model and evaluate real-life scenarios. In Part 1, the following findings were identified for
surge functions:

( )
1 A 2 2A
Stationary Point: ( , ¿ Point of inflection: ,
b be b b e2
These findings can be applied in a range of scenario’s some of which can be crucially important for human wellbeing.
For example, in part 3, these findings were utilized to model hypothetical medicinal doses. If these findings can be
further analyzed and developed, then they can possibly be utilized in the hospital system to address and automate
routinely doses of medical drugs. Furthermore, if further research were to be conducted, such findings could also
potentially be utilized to predict future events, such as possibilities of traffic jams, as briefly analyzed in Part 3.

In addition to the findings collected for surge functions, logistics functions were similarly analyzed, resulting in the
conjectures

Upper horizontal asymptote L

Point of inflection lnA L
( , )
b 2
Additionally, the effects of each variable in the Logistic function formula were analyzed and evaluated, resulting in
the findings shown below.
Variable Effect
L Vertical dilation, is equivalent to the upper horizontal
asymptote.
A Horizontal translation
B Horizontal dilation

These findings were then utilized to model the number of students in class after lunch, relative to time. These
findings provided great support in identifying a logistic function to model data points which followed a logistic-like
trend. The findings in Part 3, showed that the derived function for the logistic function was fairly accurate to the data
it modelled (students in classroom relative to time). Such accuracy in basic use of the function, only amplify its
potential uses in the real world.

Limitation’s & Assumption

Although the analysis of both the surge and logistic function showed highly insightful findings, there are nonetheless
some limitations, which restrict the use and functionality of these functions in particular cases.

1. Firstly, as mentioned during the modelling of surge functions in Part 3, they can often be highly inaccurate,
especially so when data is scattered. When the hypothetical traffic density during periods of time were
modelled in part 3, distinctive graph points were formed as a result, which did not produce an exactly
perfect/smooth curve. When the function stationary point function found was utilized to model the trend
given by the data points, although it covered all of the data points plotted under the area of its curve, it
nevertheless horizontally expanded far past the maximum point on the x-axis, as shown in Figure 11. This
limits complete accurate applicability of the surge function in all cases, as it produces a generalized curve of
the overall data, rather than steep and distinctive curves which can often be more accurate.
2. Secondly, an assumption was made in part 3 when modelling the amount of student in class relative to time.
It was assumed that all 560 students were present after lunch had ended. The possible variance of this value
greatly limits the use of the logistic function, as the functions equation identified in Table 13 would have to
be continually changed, dependent on the maximum number of children present. Furthermore, this would
also influence the values for A and b in the logistic function, as they are calculated, by equating logistic
conjectures to the maximum value (L). Therefore, the logistic function cannot be accurately utilized in
scenarios where the maximum (L) is not constant, and hence why they are most often instead utilized in
Limited growth models.
SACE No.687957W - Investigation Surge and Logistic Functions - Stage 2 Mathematical Methods
3. Thirdly, the logistic function cannot accurately model a function in which the maximum value is able to
achieve. For example, both cases in Part 3 where a logistic function was utilized to model vaccinations in a
community and student in class, respectively, each had an achievable maximum function. However, despite
this, the logistic functions modelled in Figure 8 and Figure 13 were not able to exceed past their respective
upper horizontal asymptotes, and thus creates small inaccuracies in the overall function.
4. Finally, when modeling medical doses using surge functions, it was observable that despite the fact that the
concentration of a certain drug in the body may diminish completely, the surge function continually
approach infinity, x → ∞ , y → 0, meaning that the y-value will never equal zero and will continually
approach zero. This limits real-world applicability, as it is not accurately representative of the real-world
results/data. Similarly, to medical drug concentration in the body, all sets of data which eventually diminish
to 0, are limited by the surge functions inability, for its y-value to equate to 0.

Conclusion

Overall, conjectures were able to be derived from both surge and logistic functions in Part 1 and 2 respectively.
These conjectures calculated using principles of differential calculus were then utilized to model real-world
scenarios. Both functions showed similar functions/graphs to the hypothetical data sets created, and thus validate
the conjectures produced. Particularly, in the surge function, the derived function modelled the hypothetical data
set for students in classrooms relative to time, with great accuracy, and thus provides insight as to the great
potential uses of the function, given that it was able to model the given data points to such accuracy despite the use
of only basic mathematical applications. Overall, despite the stated limitations, both functions were able to model
their respective sets of data with some level of accuracy and can thus nonetheless be utilized to produce highly
accurate and estimated predictions and models on a wide variety of data and results.

Overall, despite the limitations of both the surge and logistic functions, their applicability in the real-world has by no
means reduced. The logistic function has found application in a range of fields, including biology, biomathematics,
chemistry, economics, sociology, and much more. The widespread use of this function throughout several different
fields shows its versatility and capability in modelling a diverse range of scenarios. For example, it is utilized highly in
ecology to model population growth, where the rate of reproduction is proportional to the rate of species death due
to limited resources, as well as in medicine when modeling the growth of tumors, or even more important during
these periods, modelling a pandemic (Wikipedia, n.d.). Similarly, the surge function is widely utilized to model the
response by the body to initial doses of drugs, by measuring and recording the concentration of specific medications
in the bloodstream, (Gordon, 2007). In conclusion the utilization of both these functions has led to the development
of various solutions able to be applied in the real world and have great impacts on both the individual and societal
level. Therefore, the derived conjectures and findings given by the report can be highly insightful, to a seemingly
endless array of applications in the real world, wherever particular data sets are required to be modelled and
evaluated.

References
ACEA. (2021, August 31). Passenger cars: what they are and why they are so important. Retrieved from ACEA:
https://www.acea.auto/fact/passenger-cars-what-they-are-and-why-they-are-so-important/#:~:text=Why
%20are%20cars%20so%20important,institutions%2C%20shopping%20and%20leisure%20facilities.

Gordon, S. P. (2007, August 13). Problems, Resources, and Issues in Mathematics. Retrieved from Taylor and Francis:
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10511970608984137#:~:text=Surge%20functions%20are
%20used%20to,body's%20response%20to%20an%20infection.

Highes Hallet, F. L. (2018). Applied Calculus 6th Edition. John Wiley and Sons Inc.

howMED. (2012). Factors affecting Absorption of Drugs. Retrieved from howMED:

http://howmed.net/pharmacology/factors-affecting-absorption-of-drugs/
SACE No.687957W - Investigation Surge and Logistic Functions - Stage 2 Mathematical Methods
idcommunity. (n.d.). Australia. Retrieved from idcommunity: https://profile.id.com.au/australia/car-
ownership#:~:text=Analysis%20of%20the%20car%20ownership,respectively%20in%20Greater%20Capital
%20Cities.

Wikipedia. (n.d.). Logistic function. Retrieved from Wikipedia:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function#:~:text=The%20logistic%20function%20finds
%20applications,statistics%2C%20and%20artificial%20neural%20networks.

Wikipedia. (n.d.). Rush hour. Retrieved from Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rush_hour#:~:text=Rush

%20hour%20may%20be%206,larger%20vehicles%20are%20often%20used.