Section 1 General Economic and Financial Outlook
Section 1 General Economic and Financial Outlook
Section 1 General Economic and Financial Outlook
Section 1
A. Real Sector Indicators and Sources of Growth.............................................................................1
B. Population and Employment .............................................................................................................2
C. Domestic Prices (Period averages)..................................................................................................2
D. Fiscal Sector...........................................................................................................................................3
E. Summary of Public Domestic Debt ( in US$ million, End of Period stock)...........................4
F. Gross External Debt (in US $ million, End of Period stock).......................................................4
G. Government Debt Service (LE million, Flows)..............................................................................4
H. Monetary Sector (end of period).....................................................................................................5
I. Investment and Financial Sector.......................................................................................................6
J. External Sector.....................................................................................................................................7
FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
GENERAL ECONOMIC
Section 1: General Economic and Financial Outlook #
Annual Profile
&
July-Mar July-Mar
2020/21 2021/22 2022/23
2021/2022 2022/2023
(% Change)
Real GDP at market prices 3.3 6.6 3.8 7.8 4.1
Domestic Savings
Percent of GDP 6.4 10.2 10.6 9.2 9.8
Domestic Investments
0 -5
1
Section 1: General Economic and Financial Outlook (Continued)
Annual Profile Quarterly Profile*
Oct Dec Jan-Mar Apr-June Jul-Sep
2019/20* 2020/21* 2021/22* 2022/23*
22/23 22/23 22/23 23/24
C. Population
1/
Total Population (Millions) 101.5 102.9 104.5 105.9 104.3 104.7 105.1 105.5
2/
Consumer Price Inflation in urban areas 6.4 6.7 8.1 23.4 18.7 30.1 33.0 37.3
3/
Producer Price Inflation -3.8 5.0 24.4 -- 19.6 21.9 11.5 27.6
5/
Discount Rate 9.8 8.8 11.8 18.8 -- 16.8 18.8 19.8
T-bills Rate (91 days) 13.3 13.0 12.4 19.1 -- 20.8 22.3 24.5
Overnight Interbank Rate 12.4 10.0 9.7 14.8 -- 16.6 18.3 19.1
-- Data is unavailable.
* Revised
1/ Excludes Egyptians living abroad.
2/ Starting September 2019, CPI Urban data is based on the weights derived from 2017/2018 income and expenditure survey, and using 2018/2019 as a base. Prior to this date, the basket and
weights were derived from 2007/2008 income and expenditure survey taking January 2010 as a base month.
3/ The new series of Producer Price Index was issued by CAPMAS started September 2007 in replacement of the Wholesale Price Index, using 2004/2005 prices of goods and services as a base
period, and deriving sub-group weights from average values of agricultural, industrial and services production for the years 2002/2003 and 2003/2004.
4/ Period Average.
5/ End of period.
5 5.7
3.0 4.9 11.8
16.10
8
0 8.86 4
-5 -7.1 0
-10 -4
-15 -8
-20 -12
PPI 1/ CPI (Urban) 2/ Liquidity growth 3/ Exchange Rate (LE per US$) 4/
2/ Starting September 2019, CPI Urban data is based on the weights derived from 2017/2018 income and expenditure survey, and using 2018/2019 as a base. Prior to this date, the basket and
weights were derived from 2007/2008 income and expenditure survey taking January 2010 as a base month.
3/ Total Liquidity (M2) is defined from assets side as net foreign assets + net domestic assets of banking system. From liabilities side, it includes money (M1) and quasi money.
5/ Data reflects Producer Price Index for the month of January 2024.
2
FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
GENERAL ECONOMIC
Section 1: General Economic and Financial Outlook (Continued)
2/
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 10/ 2022/23 2023/24 Jul- April 2/
9/ 2/
Actuals Budget 2023/24
&
E. Fiscal Sector 3/
i. Budget Sector (LE Millions) 4/
Total Revenues 941,910 975,429 1,108,625 1,347,178 1,563,921 2,142,110 1,664,219
10/ Data reflects the approved Final Accounts by parliament for FY 21/22 in May 2023.
Fig (3) Budget Sector: Main Fiscal Indicators (In Percent of GDP)
16.0 50
14.0 12.0 11.4 12.5 32.9 45
10.9 Primary Surplus 30.0 30.2 29.7 Right Scale 40
12.0 9.1 26.1 35
10.0 7.5 23.9 30
8.0 3.9 5.64 5.58 16.8 17.5 25
6.0 3.5 3.5 20
1.8 3.35 21.4 11.1 11.9 15
4.0 0.1 1.8 19.0 18.1 19.0 10
2.0 0.95 17.2 16.5
5
0.0 0
-
Jul-April
Jul-April
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
Jul-April 23/24
Jul-April 23/24
22/23
22/23
3
Summary of Central Government Debt of Budget Sector
(Domestic- External) 23/24
84.1%
72.8%
70.5%
68.0%
67.4%
66.7%
66.3%
63.4%
40.0%
20.0%
0.0%
Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 June 2023 June 2024
Perliminary Revised
Actual Estimates
Domestic budget sector debt External budget sector debt Total Centeral Gov. Budget Sector Debt
(LE Millions)
External Debt of budget sector (US$ Millions) 47378 56823 68722 81167 81432
Domestic Debt of budget sector to GDP ratio 72.8% 67.4% 63.4% 66.3% 68.1%
External Debt of budget sector to GDP ratio 17.7% 16.5% 17.5% 18.3% 19.3%
Debt of budget sector(Domestic -External)-to-GDP ratio 90.5% 83.9% 80.9% 84.6% 87.4%
4
Section 1: General Economic and Financial Outlook (Continued)
Annual * Monthly
8/ Denotes the ratio of foreign currency demand, and time and savings deposits to total liquidity. Excludes non-residents deposits (which is part of net foreign assets) as well as
government deposits.
9/ The ratio of foreign currency government and non-government deposits to total deposits with the banking system. Excludes deposits held at CBE.
10/ GDP was revised.
D 17
D 18
D 19
D 20
D 21
D 22
D 23
Ju 15
Ju 16
Ju 17
Ju 18
Ju 19
Ju 20
Ju 21
Ju 22
3
-2
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
-
-
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
ec
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
Jun-23
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Dec-22
Dec-23
Dec-15
D
-20.0
Liquidity Growth Augmented Liquidity Growth 2/
5
Section 1: General Economic and Financial Outlook (Continued)
1/ 2/ *
FDI as Percent of GDP 2.9 2.6 1.9 1.2 1.9 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5
Capital Market Indicators (End of Calendar
Year) 3/
Return on EGX-30 Index 3.0 -2.1 0.8 -0.9 4.9 -9.1 10.1 -3.4 1.0
Market Capitalization (LE Billion) 4/ 825 751 708 651 766 622 961 1049 1162
Market Capitalization (Percent of
5/
17.7 13.4 11.5 9.8 9.8 7.9 9.5 10.4 11.5
GDP)
P/E Ratio 7/ 18.3 17.2 11.8 14.8 18.2 13.3 17.5 14.4 14.7
Dividend Yield (%) 8/ 5.8 6.9 7.8 7.1 6.3 7.9 8.6 8.0 6.5
Listed Bonds (LE Million) 723,165 719,231 934,358 1,605,561 2,377,080 2,487,192 2,676,703 2,595,910 2,514,296
9/
Banking Sector:
(LE Millions)
Total Assets 5,080,570 5,516,806 5,856,146 7,022,145 8,627,173 10,037,071 11,399,800 12,970,906 13,798,372
Total Loans and Discounts 1,629,664 1,854,326 1,890,567 2,493,370 3,099,031 3,564,671 4,093,650 4,481,857 4,798,906
Capital 149,119 152,661 155,972 174,775 215,356 234,690 303,027 322,646 323,776
Total Deposits 3,553,634 3,992,673 4,222,476 5,177,817 6,433,111 7,353,461 8,562,714 9,189,435 9,450,800
Non-performing Loans/Total Loans 4.3 4.2 4.2 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.3
Indicators
Banks Liquidity Ratios
Loans to Deposit Ratio 10/ 45.9 46.5 44.8 48.2 48.0 48.4 47.7 48.6 50.7
Loans / Assets 11/ 32.1 33.6 32.3 35.5 35.9 35.5 35.9 34.6 34.8
Securities / Assets 11/ 33.1 32.0 35.4 39.6 38.5 37.3 38.8 37.1 35.2
11/
Deposits / Assets 69.9 72.6 72.1 73.7 74.6 73.3 75.1 70.8 68.5
Equity / Assets 11/ 7.1 7.0 6.8 7.1 7.2 6.6 6.5 6.3 5.9
Provisions / Assets 11/ 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2
Sources: Capital Market Authority and Central Bank of Egypt.
-- Data unavailable.
* Revised
1/ Quarterly ratios calculated as percent of full year GDP.
2/ FDI inflows include investments in the oil sector.
3/ Annual data reflects end of December in each year.
4/ The market value of outstanding shares, computed by multiplying outstanding number of shares by their current prevailing market prices.
5/ GDP was revised.
6/ Turnover ratio = value of traded shares / market capitalization.
7/ Price / earning ratio, also known as the "Multiple" , is the ratio of stocks' prevailing market prices to annual earnings.
8/ Annual dividends / current stock price.
9/ Reflects Commercial Banks' data.
10/ Includes government and non government loans and deposits. Excludes deposits held at CBE.
11/ Banks operating in Egypt, excluding Central Bank of Egypt.
6
Section 1: General Economic and Financial Outlook (Continued)
Annual Profile Quarterly
K. External Sector
(In US$ Millions)
Current Account Receipts 79,046 76,287 76,148 103,278 98,165 26,115 26,699 20,931
Current Account Payments 89,940 87,454 94,584 119,829 102,875 -26,692 -20,902 -22,772
Trade Balance -38,034 -36,465 -42,060 -43,396 -31,160 -10,638 -6,448 -10,712
Services Balance 13,037 8,973 5,119 11,159 21,927 2,705 6,815 3,962
Current Account Balance -10,894 -11,167 -18,436 -16,551 -4,711 -3,801 1,410 -6,825
Net International Reserves 1/ 44,481 38,176 40,584 33,380 34,828 40,935 34,003 35,220
2/
(In Percent of GDP)
Current Account Receipts 24.8 19.9 17.9 21.7 25.0 5.2 6.1 6.4
Current Account Payments 28.2 22.8 22.3 25.1 26.2 5.3 4.8 7.0
Trade Balance -11.9 -9.5 -9.9 -9.1 -7.6 -2.1 -1.6 -2.1
Services Balance 4.1 2.3 1.2 2.3 5.6 0.5 1.6 0.9
Current Account Balance -3.4 -2.9 -4.4 -3.5 -1.2 -0.8 0.3 -1.7
Overall Balance 0.0 -2.2 0.4 -2.2 0.2 -0.07 0.02 -0.3
Non -Oil Exports 31.4 36.8 44.4 36.1 33.8 26.1 24.8 31.1
Private Transfers 45.9 56.5 68.9 44.2 28.7 28.3 20.6 23.5
NIR Import Coverage 4/ 8.0 7.3 6.9 4.6 5.9 5.5 5.7 --
Source: Central Bank of Egypt.
* Preliminary.
-- Data unavailable.
1/ Discrepancy in NIR valuation may occur due to applying different exchange rates for various components in the reserves portfolio.
2/ GDP actuals were revised. GDP of FY22/23 is calculated according to MOF estimates.
3/ Excludes official transfers.
4/ In months of commodity imports.