GENERAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

Section 1
A. Real Sector Indicators and Sources of Growth.............................................................................1
B. Population and Employment .............................................................................................................2
C. Domestic Prices (Period averages)..................................................................................................2
D. Fiscal Sector...........................................................................................................................................3
E. Summary of Public Domestic Debt ( in US$ million, End of Period stock)...........................4
F. Gross External Debt (in US $ million, End of Period stock).......................................................4
G. Government Debt Service (LE million, Flows)..............................................................................4
H. Monetary Sector (end of period).....................................................................................................5
I. Investment and Financial Sector.......................................................................................................6
J. External Sector.....................................................................................................................................7
 FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

GENERAL ECONOMIC
Section 1: General Economic and Financial Outlook #
Annual Profile

&
July-Mar July-Mar
2020/21 2021/22 2022/23
2021/2022 2022/2023

A. Real Sector (Current Prices)

GDP at market prices ( LE Million) 6,663,100 7,842,500 10,157,400 5,893,900 7,581,100

GDP at factor cost ( LE Million) 6,336,733 7,457,122 9,645,960 5,588,344 7,189,164

GDP Per Capita ( EGP) 64766 75069 95951 56417 71614

GDP Per Capita ( USD) 4128 4563 3727 2346 2322

B. Real Sector Indicators and Sources

of Growth

(% Change)
Real GDP at market prices 3.3 6.6 3.8 7.8 4.1

Domestic Savings
Percent of GDP 6.4 10.2 10.6 9.2 9.8

Domestic Investments

Percent of GDP 15.2 17.0 12.9 16.1 12.7

Source: Ministry of Planning and Economic Development.

Annual Real GDP Growth Rate Contribution of Expenditures Items in GDP

Growth
8 Right Scale
11
Left Scale 6.6 2.9 9
6 5.3 5.6
3.8 0.5 7
0.8
4.3 4.2 1.9
1.6 4.5 5 (%)
(%)4 3.6 3.8 4.3 3.7 6.5
1.5 3
3.3 4.3 5.5 4.3 2.9
1.7 1.8 2.1 1
2 -1.6 -1.3 -0.3
-1.9 -1
-3.5 -3.7
-3

0 -5

Investment Consumption 1/ Net Exports Real GDP (Market Price)

Source: Ministry of Planning and Economic Development.

1
 Section 1: General Economic and Financial Outlook (Continued)
Annual Profile Quarterly Profile*
Oct Dec Jan-Mar Apr-June Jul-Sep
2019/20* 2020/21* 2021/22* 2022/23*
22/23 22/23 22/23 23/24
C. Population
1/
Total Population (Millions) 101.5 102.9 104.5 105.9 104.3 104.7 105.1 105.5

Unemployment Rate % * 7.9 7.4 7.2 6.9 6.9 -- -- --

D. Domestic Prices (Period Average) 4/

2/
Consumer Price Inflation in urban areas 6.4 6.7 8.1 23.4 18.7 30.1 33.0 37.3

3/
Producer Price Inflation -3.8 5.0 24.4 -- 19.6 21.9 11.5 27.6

5/
Discount Rate 9.8 8.8 11.8 18.8 -- 16.8 18.8 19.8

T-bills Rate (91 days) 13.3 13.0 12.4 19.1 -- 20.8 22.3 24.5

Overnight Interbank Rate 12.4 10.0 9.7 14.8 -- 16.6 18.3 19.1

Sources: Ministry of Planning, Central Bank of Egypt and CAPMAS.

-- Data is unavailable.
* Revised
1/ Excludes Egyptians living abroad.

2/ Starting September 2019, CPI Urban data is based on the weights derived from 2017/2018 income and expenditure survey, and using 2018/2019 as a base. Prior to this date, the basket and
weights were derived from 2007/2008 income and expenditure survey taking January 2010 as a base month.
3/ The new series of Producer Price Index was issued by CAPMAS started September 2007 in replacement of the Wholesale Price Index, using 2004/2005 prices of goods and services as a base
period, and deriving sub-group weights from average values of agricultural, industrial and services production for the years 2002/2003 and 2003/2004.
4/ Period Average.
5/ End of period.

Fig ( 2 ): Domestic Inflation and Contributing Factors

(End of Period Rates)
50 48
45 CPI 35.7
42.7 5/ 47.83 44
40 40
35 34.9 34.0 (New Series) 32.3 39.3
36
30 29.8 30.84 32
25 32.5 23.4 28
20 14.4 18.4 18.6 18.5 17.5 18.1 25.5 24
15 14.0 16.4 16.68 24.7 6/ 20
10 9.4 13.2 16
5.6 18.04 17.83 15.62 18.68 12
(%)

5 5.7
3.0 4.9 11.8
16.10
8
0 8.86 4
-5 -7.1 0
-10 -4
-15 -8
-20 -12

PPI 1/ CPI (Urban) 2/ Liquidity growth 3/ Exchange Rate (LE per US$) 4/

Sources: Central Bank of Egypt and CAPMAS.

1/ Series break. Prior to June 2007, series reflects WPI indicators.

2/ Starting September 2019, CPI Urban data is based on the weights derived from 2017/2018 income and expenditure survey, and using 2018/2019 as a base. Prior to this date, the basket and
weights were derived from 2007/2008 income and expenditure survey taking January 2010 as a base month.
3/ Total Liquidity (M2) is defined from assets side as net foreign assets + net domestic assets of banking system. From liabilities side, it includes money (M1) and quasi money.

4/ Monthly average exchange rate.

5/ Data reflects Producer Price Index for the month of January 2024.

6/ Data reflects M2 growth for the month of March 2024.

2
 FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

GENERAL ECONOMIC
Section 1: General Economic and Financial Outlook (Continued)
2/
2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 10/ 2022/23 2023/24 Jul- April 2/
9/ 2/
Actuals Budget 2023/24

&
E. Fiscal Sector 3/
i. Budget Sector (LE Millions) 4/
Total Revenues 941,910 975,429 1,108,625 1,347,178 1,563,921 2,142,110 1,664,219

Total Expenditure 1,369,870 1,434,723 1,578,774 1,831,022 2,184,594 2,990,925 2,453,400

Primary Balance 5/ 103,094 105,646 93,153 100,412 164,302 295,646 469,148
Cash Balance 6/ -427,960 -459,294 -470,149 -483,844 -620,672 -848,814 -789,181
Overall Balance -429,951 -462,775 -472,345 -484,414 -609,901 -824,440 -781,052
ii. Budget Sector 4/ (% change)
Total Revenues 14.7 3.6 13.7 21.5 16.1 41.1 47.9
Tax Revenues 17.0 0.5 12.8 18.9 26.9 30.9 34.4
Non Tax Revenues 7.3 14.6 16.5 29.5 -14.2 75.4 109.8
Total Expenditure 10.1 4.7 10.0 16.0 19.3 44.4 44.3
Compensation of Employees 10.8 8.5 10.4 12.5 15.0 17.5 25.9
Interest Payments 21.9 6.6 -0.5 3.4 32.4 62.3 87.8
iii - Consolidated General Government (LE Millions) 7/
Total Revenues -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Total Expenditure -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Overall Balance -- -- -- -- -- -- --
iv - As Percent of GDP 8/
Budget Sector
Total Revenues (of which): 16.5 15.5 16.0 17.0 15.5 18.1 11.9
Tax Revenues 12.9 11.7 12.0 12.5 12.5 12.9 8.9
Non Tax Revenues 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.5 3.0 5.2 3.0
Total Expenditure (of which): 23.9 22.8 22.8 23.1 21.6 25.3 17.5
Compensation of Employees 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.1 4.0 3.0
Interest Payments 9.3 9.0 8.2 7.4 7.7 9.5 8.9
Primary Balance 5/ 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.63 2.5 3.35
Cash Balance 6/ -7.5 -7.3 -6.8 -6.1 -6.15 -7.2 -5.64
Overall Balance -7.5 -7.4 -6.8 -6.1 -6.04 -7.0 -5.58
General Government 7/
Primary Balance 5/ -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Overall Balance -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Source: Ministry of Finance.
-- Data are preliminary & under preparation until being finalized.
1/ The decrease in non-tax revenues, came on the back of the decline in the exceptional resources from grants during the year of comparison.
2/ Data reflects monitoring fiscal performance on monthly basis starting the beginning of fiscal year in July to the latest available data at the date of publication.
3/ Based on IMF GFS 2001 (modified to cash basis).
4/ Includes Central Administration and Local Governments, and Public Services Authorities.
5/ Overall deficit net of interest payments.
6/ Overall deficit excluding net acquisition of financial assets.
7/ Includes consolidated operations for the budget sector, National Investment Bank (NIB), and Social Insurance Funds (SIF). Data are prepared on consolidated basis; excluding financial interrelations
between the three bodies.
8/ GDP was revised.
9/ Data reflects budget figures in light of Decree Number 91 for the year 2023.

10/ Data reflects the approved Final Accounts by parliament for FY 21/22 in May 2023.

Fig (3) Budget Sector: Main Fiscal Indicators (In Percent of GDP)

16.0 50
14.0 12.0 11.4 12.5 32.9 45
10.9 Primary Surplus 30.0 30.2 29.7 Right Scale 40
12.0 9.1 26.1 35
10.0 7.5 23.9 30
8.0 3.9 5.64 5.58 16.8 17.5 25
6.0 3.5 3.5 20
1.8 3.35 21.4 11.1 11.9 15
4.0 0.1 1.8 19.0 18.1 19.0 10
2.0 0.95 17.2 16.5
5
0.0 0
-
Jul-April

Jul-April
2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19
Jul-April 23/24

Jul-April 23/24
22/23

22/23

Primary Balance Overall Deficit Total Revenues Total Expenditure

Source: Ministry of Finance.

3
 Summary of Central Government Debt of Budget Sector
(Domestic- External) 23/24

Total Centeral Gov. Budget Sector Debt (% of GDP)

(2015/2016- 2023/2024)
120.0%
102.8%
100.9%
100.0% 90.5% 95.7% 89.0%
7.9% 87.2%
16.8% 83.9% 80.9% 84.6%
80.0% 17.7% 25.2%
16.5% 18.3% 19.2% 22.3%
17.5%
60.0%
94.9%

84.1%

72.8%

70.5%
68.0%
67.4%

66.7%
66.3%
63.4%
40.0%

20.0%

0.0%
Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 June 2023 June 2024
Perliminary Revised
Actual Estimates

Domestic budget sector debt External budget sector debt Total Centeral Gov. Budget Sector Debt

(LE Millions)

17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22

Domestic debt of budget sector 3470986 3856215 3989688 4591676 5399654

Growth Rate 11% 11% 3% 15% 18%

External Debt of budget sector 844502 945596 1104525 1267637 1526624

Growth Rate 35% 12% 17% 15% 20%

External Debt of budget sector (US$ Millions) 47378 56823 68722 81167 81432

Total Debt of budget sector 4315488 4801811 5094213 5859313 6926278

Growth rate 15% 11% 6% 15% 18%

Domestic Debt of budget sector to GDP ratio 72.8% 67.4% 63.4% 66.3% 68.1%

External Debt of budget sector to GDP ratio 17.7% 16.5% 17.5% 18.3% 19.3%

Debt of budget sector(Domestic -External)-to-GDP ratio 90.5% 83.9% 80.9% 84.6% 87.4%

4
 Section 1: General Economic and Financial Outlook (Continued)
Annual * Monthly

18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 Dec-22 Oct-23 Nov-23 Dec-23

I. Monetary Sector (End of Period)

(LE Millions)
1/
Reserve Money 684,031 855,580 987,726 1,192,935 1,528,750 1,496,290 1,585,418 1,612,422 1,689,435
Total Liquidity 3,863,645 4,538,808 5,360,086 6,614,488 8,248,189 7,402,740 8,682,319 8,787,887 8,877,594
2/
Money 923,562 1,084,742 1,258,675 1,545,378 2,060,944 1,739,622 2,265,982 2,334,979 2,370,157
3/
Quasi Money 2,940,083 3,454,066 4,101,411 5,069,110 6,187,245 5,663,118 6,416,337 6,452,908 6,507,437
Annual Percent Change:
1/
Reserve Money -4.9 25.1 15.4 20.8 28.2 45.5 18.8 4.3 12.9
Total Liquidity (Nominal Growth) 11.8 17.5 18.1 23.4 24.7 27.1 20.9 20.1 19.9
Net Foreign Assets -3.7 -59.0 106.6 -247.5 -124.3 -1406.6 -52.0 -53.6 -70.2
Net Domestic Assets 13.8 23.3 15.8 36.6 30.0 36.5 23.1 22.4 23.1
Credit to Private Sector 12.5 19.5 21.2 23.6 25.4 28.5 21.8 21.8 22.8
Total Liquidity ( Real Growth) 2.4 11.9 10.6 10.2 -11.0 5.8 -14.9 -14.5 -13.8
5/
Loans to Deposit Ratio
Government Sector 88.8 90.3 107.1 91.1 96.2 85.2 107.1 109.2 110.1
Non Government Sector 38.2 38.6 38.1 37.5 37.2 36.7 37.1 37.4 37.5
Local Currency 38.4 38.7 38.3 38.8 39.5 38.3 39.2 39.4 39.5
Foreign Currency 37.6 38.3 36.9 30.6 28.8 29.4 28.9 29.8 29.6
Indicators:
6/
M2 Multiplier 5.65 5.30 5.43 5.54 5.40 4.95 5.48 5.45 5.25
7/
M2 Velocity (centered) 1.53 1.46 1.35 1.31 1.36 1.53 1.64 1.61 1.60
8/
M2 Dollarization 18.5 14.7 12.1 12.8 18.4 15.7 18.0 17.7 17.6
9/
Deposits Dollarization 20.7 16.5 13.8 14.6 19.7 17.5 19.3 19.2 18.8
#
Total Liquidity (M2) / GDP 69.0 73.8 80.4 84.3 81.7 73.3 66.8 67.6 68.3
Source: Central Bank of Egypt and Ministry of Finance calculations.
* Revised.
1/ Includes currency in circulation outside CBE and banks' LE deposits with CBE.
2/ Includes currency in circulation outside the banking system, and demand deposits in local currency. Excludes drafts and checks under collection.
3/ Includes time and savings deposits in local currency, demand deposits and time and savings deposits in foreign currency.
4/ Includes claims on private business sector and household sector.
5/ Excludes deposits/loans held /provided by CBE.
6/ M2/ Reserve Money.
7/ GDP / M2 centered. M2 centered equals [(M2) t + (M2) t-1] / 2 .

8/ Denotes the ratio of foreign currency demand, and time and savings deposits to total liquidity. Excludes non-residents deposits (which is part of net foreign assets) as well as
government deposits.
9/ The ratio of foreign currency government and non-government deposits to total deposits with the banking system. Excludes deposits held at CBE.
10/ GDP was revised.

Liquidity Growth ( Annual % Change) XR Annual % Change (end of period)

140 120.0
120
100.0
100
80 80.0
60 60.0
40
40.0
20
0 20.0
-20
0.0
D 16

D 17

D 18

D 19

D 20

D 21

D 22

D 23
Ju 15

Ju 16

Ju 17

Ju 18

Ju 19

Ju 20

Ju 21

Ju 22

3
-2
n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-

n-
-

-
ec

ec

ec

ec

ec

ec

ec

ec

ec

Jun-16

Jun-17

Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21

Jun-22

Jun-23
Dec-16

Dec-17

Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20

Dec-21

Dec-22

Dec-23
Dec-15
D

-20.0
Liquidity Growth Augmented Liquidity Growth 2/

Quasi Money Foreign Currency 3/

XR Annual Percent Change (end of period)
3
Source: Central Bank of Egypt and Ministry of Finance calculations.
1/ Total Liquidity includes money and quasi money.
2/ M2 growth at constant exchange rate, calculated by applying previous period's exchange rate to the current period.
3/ Foreign currency demand deposits, and time and saving deposits.

5
 Section 1: General Economic and Financial Outlook (Continued)

Annual Profile * Quarterly Profile *

2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 Jun-22 Dec-22 Mar-22 Jun-23

J. Investments and Financial Sector

Domestic Investments as Percent of GDP
1/ *
18.7 20.1 16.0 15.1 17.0 19.8 11.3 -- --

1/ 2/ *
FDI as Percent of GDP 2.9 2.6 1.9 1.2 1.9 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5
Capital Market Indicators (End of Calendar
Year) 3/
Return on EGX-30 Index 3.0 -2.1 0.8 -0.9 4.9 -9.1 10.1 -3.4 1.0

Market Capitalization (LE Billion) 4/ 825 751 708 651 766 622 961 1049 1162
Market Capitalization (Percent of
5/
17.7 13.4 11.5 9.8 9.8 7.9 9.5 10.4 11.5
GDP)

P/E Ratio 7/ 18.3 17.2 11.8 14.8 18.2 13.3 17.5 14.4 14.7
Dividend Yield (%) 8/ 5.8 6.9 7.8 7.1 6.3 7.9 8.6 8.0 6.5
Listed Bonds (LE Million) 723,165 719,231 934,358 1,605,561 2,377,080 2,487,192 2,676,703 2,595,910 2,514,296
9/
Banking Sector:
(LE Millions)
Total Assets 5,080,570 5,516,806 5,856,146 7,022,145 8,627,173 10,037,071 11,399,800 12,970,906 13,798,372
Total Loans and Discounts 1,629,664 1,854,326 1,890,567 2,493,370 3,099,031 3,564,671 4,093,650 4,481,857 4,798,906
Capital 149,119 152,661 155,972 174,775 215,356 234,690 303,027 322,646 323,776
Total Deposits 3,553,634 3,992,673 4,222,476 5,177,817 6,433,111 7,353,461 8,562,714 9,189,435 9,450,800
Non-performing Loans/Total Loans 4.3 4.2 4.2 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.3
Indicators
Banks Liquidity Ratios
Loans to Deposit Ratio 10/ 45.9 46.5 44.8 48.2 48.0 48.4 47.7 48.6 50.7
Loans / Assets 11/ 32.1 33.6 32.3 35.5 35.9 35.5 35.9 34.6 34.8
Securities / Assets 11/ 33.1 32.0 35.4 39.6 38.5 37.3 38.8 37.1 35.2
11/
Deposits / Assets 69.9 72.6 72.1 73.7 74.6 73.3 75.1 70.8 68.5
Equity / Assets 11/ 7.1 7.0 6.8 7.1 7.2 6.6 6.5 6.3 5.9
Provisions / Assets 11/ 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.9 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2
Sources: Capital Market Authority and Central Bank of Egypt.
-- Data unavailable.
* Revised
1/ Quarterly ratios calculated as percent of full year GDP.
2/ FDI inflows include investments in the oil sector.
3/ Annual data reflects end of December in each year.
4/ The market value of outstanding shares, computed by multiplying outstanding number of shares by their current prevailing market prices.
5/ GDP was revised.
6/ Turnover ratio = value of traded shares / market capitalization.
7/ Price / earning ratio, also known as the "Multiple" , is the ratio of stocks' prevailing market prices to annual earnings.
8/ Annual dividends / current stock price.
9/ Reflects Commercial Banks' data.

10/ Includes government and non government loans and deposits. Excludes deposits held at CBE.
11/ Banks operating in Egypt, excluding Central Bank of Egypt.

6
 Section 1: General Economic and Financial Outlook (Continued)
Annual Profile Quarterly

Jul-Dec * Jul-Dec * Jul-Dec *

2018/2019* 2019/2020* 2020/2021* 2021/2022* 2022/2023*
2021/2022 2022/2023 2023/2024

K. External Sector
(In US$ Millions)

Current Account Receipts 79,046 76,287 76,148 103,278 98,165 26,115 26,699 20,931

Current Account Payments 89,940 87,454 94,584 119,829 102,875 -26,692 -20,902 -22,772

Trade Balance -38,034 -36,465 -42,060 -43,396 -31,160 -10,638 -6,448 -10,712

Services Balance 13,037 8,973 5,119 11,159 21,927 2,705 6,815 3,962

Current Account Balance -10,894 -11,167 -18,436 -16,551 -4,711 -3,801 1,410 -6,825

Capital and Financial Account Net

10,857 5,375 23,374 11,806 8,932 5,377 -1,631 6,594
Flows

Overall Balance -102 -8,587 1,862 -10,546 882 -325 76 -638

Net International Reserves 1/ 44,481 38,176 40,584 33,380 34,828 40,935 34,003 35,220
2/
(In Percent of GDP)

Current Account Receipts 24.8 19.9 17.9 21.7 25.0 5.2 6.1 6.4

Current Account Payments 28.2 22.8 22.3 25.1 26.2 5.3 4.8 7.0

Trade Balance -11.9 -9.5 -9.9 -9.1 -7.6 -2.1 -1.6 -2.1

Services Balance 4.1 2.3 1.2 2.3 5.6 0.5 1.6 0.9

Current Account Balance -3.4 -2.9 -4.4 -3.5 -1.2 -0.8 0.3 -1.7

Overall Balance 0.0 -2.2 0.4 -2.2 0.2 -0.07 0.02 -0.3

(In Percent of Current Account Receipts) 3/

Non -Oil Exports 31.4 36.8 44.4 36.1 33.8 26.1 24.8 31.1

Oil-Exports 21.4 17.4 19.0 25.0 18.1 19.2 18.4 7.7

Tourism 23.3 20.3 10.7 15.0 17.9 11.4 12.2 15.8

Private Transfers 45.9 56.5 68.9 44.2 28.7 28.3 20.6 23.5

Other Indicators (%):

Commodity Exports / Commodity
42.8 42.0 40.5 50.3 56.0 52.7 64.2 43.1
Imports
Services Receipts / Service Payments 214 173 147 171 274 164 334 201

NIR Import Coverage 4/ 8.0 7.3 6.9 4.6 5.9 5.5 5.7 --
Source: Central Bank of Egypt.
* Preliminary.
-- Data unavailable.
1/ Discrepancy in NIR valuation may occur due to applying different exchange rates for various components in the reserves portfolio.
2/ GDP actuals were revised. GDP of FY22/23 is calculated according to MOF estimates.
3/ Excludes official transfers.
4/ In months of commodity imports.