Full Download Reliability of Structures 2nd Nowak Solution Manual File PDF Free All Chapter
Full Download Reliability of Structures 2nd Nowak Solution Manual File PDF Free All Chapter
Full Download Reliability of Structures 2nd Nowak Solution Manual File PDF Free All Chapter
Solution Manual
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Reliability of Structures 2nd Nowak Solution
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Problem 2.1. The results of tests to determine the modulus of rupture (MOR) for a set of
timber beams are shown in Table P2.1.
A. Plot the relative frequency and cumulative frequency histograms.
B. Calculate the sample mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation.
C. Plot the data on normal probability paper.
Solution:
A. For the histogram plots, the interval size is chosen to be 250. There are 45 data points.
Relative Frequency
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
3250-3500
3750-4000
4250-4500
4750-5000
5250-5500
5750-6000
6250-6500
6750-7000
7250-7500
4
Cumulative Frequency
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
5750-
6250-
6750-
7250-
6000
6500
7000
7500
3250-
3750-
4250-
4750-
5250-
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
B. Using Eqns. 2.25 and 2.26, sample mean = x = 5031 and sample standard deviation = sX =
880.4. The coefficient of variation based on sample parameters is s X / x = 0.175.
C. The step-by-step procedure described in Section 2.5 is followed to construct the plot on
normal probability paper.
3
Standard Normal Variate
-1
-2
-3
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
MOR
-------------------------------------------
Problem 2.2. A set of test data for the load-carrying capacity of a member is shown in Table
P2.2.
A. Plot the test data on normal probability paper.
B. Plot a normal distribution on the same probability paper. Use the sample mean and
standard deviation as estimates of the true mean and standard deviation.
C. Plot a lognormal distribution on the same normal probability paper. Use the sample mean
and standard deviation as estimates of the true mean and standard deviation.
5
D. Plot the relative frequency and cumulative frequency histograms.
Solution:
A. Using Eqns. 2.25 and 2.26, the sample mean, sample standard deviation, and sample
coefficient of variation are
x = 4.127 s X = 0.1770 CoV = s X / x = 0.04289
3
Standard Normal
2
1
Variate
0
-1 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5
-2
-3
Capacity
6
B. See part A. To plot the normal distribution on normal probability paper: (1) Calculate
values of the standard normal variable z for some arbitrary values of x (in ascending
order) in the range of interest. The formula for z is
x − X x −4.127
z= =
X 0.1770
(2) Plot z versus x on standard linear graph paper. The plot is shown in the graph in Part
A. Note that the relationship between z and x is linear, so only two points are needed to
plot the graph.
C. To plot a lognormal distribution, we need the lognormal distribution parameters. We will
assume that X= x and X=sX.
ln2 X = ln(1+ VX2 ) = ln(1+ (0.04289) 2 ) ln X = 0.04287
To plot the lognormal distribution on normal probability paper: (1) Calculate FX(x) for
some arbitrary values of x (in ascending order) in the range of interest. FX(x) is the
lognormal distribution, and it can be calculated as shown in Section 2.4.3. (2) Use the
values of FX(xi) as the values of pi for plotting points on normal probability paper. (3)
Calculate zi = -1(pi). (4) Plot zi versus xi. The plot is shown in the graph in Part A.
D. There are 19 data points. The interval size was chosen to be 0.05.
vii
Relative Frequency Plot
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
frequency
0.08
Relative
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
3.9-3.95
4.0-4.05
3.70-3.75
3.8-3.85
4.1-4.15
4.2-4.25
4.3-4.35
4.4-4.45
Intervals
Cumulative Frequency
Plot
100.00%
80.00%
60.00%
40.00%
20.00%
3.9-3.95
4.0-4.05
4.2-4.25
4.3-4.35
.00%
3.70-3.75
3.8-3.85
4.1-4.15
4.4-4.45
Intervals
--------------------------------------
Problem 2.3. For the data in Table 2.5, calculate the statistical estimate of the correlation
coefficient using Equation (2.99).
Solution:
The formula is
n
n
(x −x )(yi −y ) x i yi −nxy
1 i
1 i=1
̂XY = i =1
=
n −1 s Xs Y n −1 s Xs Y
8
Note that is doesn’t matter which variable is x and which is y. There are 100 data points.
After manipulating the data, you should find:
9
x = 2743.82 s X = 520.082
for f c
for E y = 2991380 s Y = 361245
̂XY = 0.806
--------------------------------------------
Problem 2.4. A variable X is to be modelled using a uniform distribution. The lower bound
value is 5, and the upper bound value is 36.
A. Calculate the mean and standard deviation of X.
B. What is the probability that the value of X is between 10 and 20?
C. What is the probability that the value of X is greater than 31?
D. Plot the CDF on normal probability paper.
Solution:
A. The value of a is 5, and the value of b is 36. (Refer to Eqn. 2.31.) Using Eqns. 2.32
and 2.33,
a +b
X = = 20.5
2
(b −a ) 2
2X = = 80.1 X = 8.95
12
9
Uniform distribution
Standard Normal
0
0 10 20 30 40
Variable -1
-2
-3
X
----------------------------------------
Problem 2.5. The dead load D on a structure is to be modelled as a normal random variable
with a mean value of 100 and a coefficient of variation of 8%.
A. Plot the PDF and CDF on standard graph paper.
B. Plot the CDF on normal probability paper.
C. Determine the probability that D is less than or equal to 95.
D. Determine the probability that D is between 95 and 105.
Solution:
A. The formulas for PDF and CDF are given by Eqns. 2.34 and 2.39. The value of D is
VDD = 0.08(100)=8. Appendix B can be used to determine values of CDF, or a
computer spreadsheet program can be used.
PDF Function
0.06
0.05
0.04
PDF
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
70 80 90 100 110 120 130
x
10
CDF Function
1
0.8
0.6
CDF
0.4
0.2
0
70 80 90 100 110 120 130
x
B. To plot the normal distribution on normal probability paper: (1) Calculate values of
the standard normal variable z for some arbitrary values of d (in ascending order) in
the range of interest. The formula for z is
d − D d −100
z= =
D 8
(2) Plot z versus d on standard linear graph paper. Note that the relationship between
z and d is linear, so only two points are needed to plot the graph.
4
3
2
1
0
-1 70 90 110 130
-2
-3
-4
d
C.
95 − 100
P(D 95) = = (−0.625) = 0.266
8
11
D.
105 − 100 95 − 100
P(95 D 105) = − = (0.625) − (−0.625) = 0.468
8 8
----------------------------------------
Problem 2.6. The ground snow load q (in pounds per square foot) is to be modelled as a
lognormal random variable. The mean value of the ground snow load is 8.85 psf, and the
standard deviation is 5.83 psf.
A. Plot the PDF and CDF on standard graph paper.
B. Plot the CDF on normal probability paper.
C. Determine the probability that q is less than or equal to 7.39 psf.
D. Determine the probability that q is between 6 and 8 psf.
Solution:
A. Since q is lognormal, ln(q) is normally distributed with mean ln(q) and standard
deviation ln(q). These parameters can be found using Eqns. 2.48 and 2.49. You can’t
use the small V approximation here because Vq is 0.659 which is larger than 0.2.
2
5.83
2
ln(q) = ln(1+ V ) = ln(1 +
2
) ln(q) = 0.6004
q
8.85
ln(q ) = ln(q ) − 0.52ln(q) = ln(8.85) − 0.5(0.6004)2 = 2.000
The formulas for PDF and CDF are given by Eqns. 2.52 and 2.47. Both of these can
be calculated using information from the standard normal distribution.
Lognormal PDF
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
0 10 20 30 40 50
q
xii
Lognormal CDF
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0 10 20 30 40 50
q
B. To plot the lognormal distribution on normal probability paper: (1) Calculate Fq(q) for
some arbitrary values of q (in ascending order) in the range of interest. Fq(q) is the
lognormal distribution, and it can be calculated as shown in Section 2.4.3. (2) Use the
values of Fq(qi) as the values of pi for plotting points on normal probability paper. (3)
Calculate zi = -1(pi). (4) Plot zi versus qi. on standard linear graph paper. Since the
lognormal and normal distributions are related to each other, you can show that the
relationship between z and q is
ln(q) − ln(q) ln(q) − 2.000
z= =
ln(q ) 0.6004
3
2
1
0
-1 0 10 20 30 40 50
-2
-3
q
C.
ln(7.39) − 2.000
P(q 7.39) = (0) = 0.5
0.6004
13
D.
ln(8) −2.000 ln(6) −2.000
P(6 q 8) = −
0.6004 0.6004
= (0.132) − (−0.346)
= 0.188
-------------------------------------
Problem 2.7. The yield stress of A36 steel is to be modelled as a lognormal random variable
with a mean value of 36 ksi and a coefficient of variation of 10%.
A. Plot the PDF and CDF on standard graph paper.
B. Plot the CDF on normal probability paper.
C. Determine the probability that the yield stress is greater than 40 ksi.
D. Determine the probability that the yield stress is between 34 and 38 ksi.
Solution:
A. Since X is lognormal, ln(X) is normally distributed with mean lnX and standard
deviation lnX. These parameters can be found using Eqns. 2.48 and 2.49. We can use
the small V approximation here because VX is 0.10 which is smaller than 0.2.
2ln X = ln(1+ VX2 ) VX2 ln X = VX = 0.10
2
Lognormal PDF
1.2
1
0.8
PDF
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0 20 40 60
80 x
14
Lognormal CDF
1
0.8
0.6
CDF
0.4
0.2
0
0 20 40 60 80
x
B. To plot the lognormal distribution on normal probability paper: (1) Calculate FX(x) for
some arbitrary values of x (in ascending order) in the range of interest. FX(x) is the
lognormal distribution, and it can be calculated as shown in Section 2.4.3. (2) Use the
values of FX(xi) as the values of pi for plotting points on normal probability paper. (3)
Calculate zi = -1(pi). (4) Plot zi versus xi. Since the lognormal and normal
distributions are related to each other, you can show that the relationship between z
and x is
ln(x) −ln X ln(x) −3.584
z= =
ln X 0.1
4
3
2
1
0
-1 0 20 40 60 80
-2
-3
-4
x
C.
ln(40) − 3.584
P(X 40) = 1− P(X 40) = 1 − = 1 − (1.049) = 0.147
0.1
15
D.
ln(38) −3.584 ln(34) −3.584
P(34 X 38) = −
0.1 0.1
= (0.536) − (−0.576)
= 0.422
-------------------------------------
Problem 2.8. The annual extreme wind speed at a particular location is to be modelled as an
extreme Type I random variable. The mean value of the extreme wind is 50 miles per hour
(mph) and the coefficient of variation is 15%.
A. Plot the PDF and CDF on standard graph paper.
B. Plot the CDF on normal probability paper.
C. Determine the probability that the annual maximum wind speed is greater than 50
mph.
D. Determine the probability that the annual maximum wind speed is less than 50 mph.
E. Determine the probability that the wind speed will be between 40 and 60 mph.
Solution:
A. Let X denote the random variable representing wind speed.
X = 50 VX = 0.15 X = VX X = 7.5
To plot the PDF and CDF, we need the parameters for the Type I distribution. They can
be found using Eqns. 2.62 and 2.63.
1.282
= = 0.1709 u = X − 0.45X = 46.63
X
The PDF and CDF functions are given by Eqns. 2.58 and 2.59.
Type I PDF
0.07
0.06
0.05
PDF
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
0 20 40 60 80
100 x
16
Type I CDF
1
0.8
0.6
CDF
0.4
0.2
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
x
B. To plot the Type I CDF on normal probability paper: (1) Calculate FX(x) for some
arbitrary values of x (in ascending order) in the range of interest. FX(x) is the Type I
distribution. (2) Use the values of FX(xi) as the values of pi for plotting points on normal
probability paper. (3) Calculate zi = -1(pi). (4) Plot zi versus xi on standard linear graph
paper.
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
-1
-2
-3
x
C.
P(X 50) = 1− P(X 50) = 1− FX (50)
= 1 − exp(− exp(−(50 − u)))
= 1 − 0.5700
= 0.43
xvii
D.
P(X 50) = FX (50)
= exp(− exp(−(50 − u)))
= 0.5700
E.
P(40 X 60) = FX (60) − FX (40)
= exp(− exp(−(60 − u))) − exp(− exp(−(40 − u)))
= 0.9032 − 0.04482 = 0.8584
---------------------------------
Problem 2.9. The peak ground acceleration A that is expected at a site in a 50 year time
period is modelled as an extreme Type II random variable with u = 0.2g (g is the acceleration
of gravity) and k = 3.
A. Plot the PDF and CDF on standard graph paper.
B. Plot the CDF on normal probability paper.
C. Determine the probability that the ground acceleration will be between 0.15g and 0.2g.
D. Determine the probability that the ground acceleration will be greater than 0.3g.
Solution:
A. The parameters u and k are already known. The formulas for PDF and CDF are given in
Eqns. 2.64 and 2.65.
Type II PDF
7
6
5
4
PDF
3
2
1
0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
0.7
x
18
Type II CDF
0.8
0.6
CDF
0.4
0.2
0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
0.7
x
B. To plot the Type II CDF on normal probability paper: (1) Calculate FX(x) for some
arbitrary values of x (in ascending order) in the range of interest. FX(x) is the Type II
distribution. (2) Use the values of FX(xi) as the values of pi for plotting points on normal
probability paper. (3) Calculate zi = -1(pi). (4) Plot zi versus xi on standard linear graph
paper.
3
Standard normal variable
0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
-1
-2
-3
x
19
C.
P(0.15 A 0.2) = FA (0.2) − FA (0.15)
k
k
u u
= exp − − exp −
0.15
0.2
= 0.3679 − 0.09345
= 0.2745
D.
P(A 0.3) = 1− P(A 0.3)
u k
= 1− exp −
0.3
= 1− 0.7436
= 0.2564
-----------------------------------
Problem 2.10. The occurrence of major snow storms (snowfall greater than 1 foot) for a
particular location is assumed to follow a Poisson distribution. Over 33 years of snowfall
records, such storms have occurred 94 times.
A. What is the probability of 2 or more major storms in the next year?
B. What is the probability of exactly 2 storms occurring in the next 3 years?
C. What is the return period of these storms?
D. What is the probability of more than 3 storms in the next 2 years?
Solution:
The average occurrence rate, , of storms is
94
= = 2.85 occurrences/year
33
A. The time interval, t, is 1 year.
P(N 2) = 1− P(N 2)
= 1− P(N = 0) + P(N = 1)
(t )0 −t (t )1 −t
= 1− e + e
0! 1!
= 1− e− − e−
= 0.777
20
B. The time interval, t, is 3 years.
(t)2 −t
P(N = 2) = e
2!
=
(2.85)(3)2 −(2.85)(3)
2! e
= 7.07x10−3
C. The return period is defined as the inverse of the average occurrence rate.
1
= = 0.351 years/occurrence
D. The time interval, t, is 2 years.
P(N 3) = 1 − P(N 3)
---------------------------------
21
SOLUTIONS TO PROBLEMS IN CHAPTER 3
Solution:
The simplest derivation uses the fact that the expectation operator E[ ] is a linear operator.
Therefore,
Y = EY = E a 0 + a i X i
= Ea 0 + E a i Xi
= a 0 + Ea i X i
= a 0 + a i EX i
= a 0 + a iX i
An alternate derivation uses the integral definition of expected value (Eqn. 2.28 extended to
apply to a random vector) and the concept of marginal density functions (Eqn. 2.85). By the
definition of expected value for a function of random variables,
+ + +
Y = a + a x f
0 i i X1 X 2 X n (x1 , x 2 , , x n ) dx1dx 2 dx n
−− −
terms and carrying out n-1 of the integrals in each term to get to marginal density functions,
we get
+
Y = a 0 + a i x if X i (x i ) dx i
−
= a 0 + a i X i
---------------------------------
Solution:
The simplest derivation uses the fact that the expectation operator E[ ] is a linear operator.
Therefore,
xxii
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