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Copyright © 2017. World Bank Publications. All rights reserved.
Africa’s Cities
Opening Doors to the World
Somik Vinay Lall

J. Vernon Henderson
Anthony J. Venables
With
Juliana Aguilar, Ana Aguilera, Sarah Antos, Paolo Avner,
Olivia D’Aoust, Chyi-Yun Huang, Patricia Jones,
Nancy Lozano Gracia, and Shohei Nakamura.
47 PM
Africa’s Cities | Opening Doors to the World
All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the Open to the World
Publishing and Knowledge Division, The World Bank, 1818 H Street
NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625;
e-mail: [email protected].
© 2017 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development /

The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433
Telephone: 202-473-1000
Internet: www.worldbank.org
Some rights reserved.
This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external
Crowded
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The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely
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The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this

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Disconnected
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commercial purposes, under the following conditions:
Attribution — Please cite the work as follows: Lall, Somik Vinay,

J. Vernon Henderson, and Anthony J. Venables. 2017. “Africa’s
Cities: Opening Doors to the World.” World Bank, Washington, DC.
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All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World

Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW,
Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625;
e-mail: [email protected]. Urban Planning
ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648-1044-2
ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-1045-9
DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1044-2
Design and production by Zephyr

www.wearezephyr.com
Infrastructure
47 PM
Contents
Acknowledgments ............................................................ 7
Overview Africa’s Cities: Part I Crowded and

Opening Doors to the World Disconnected African Cities
Chapter 1 Page 37
Crowded with people,
not dense with capital
The low development trap — Africa’s urban Crowded with people.....................................................38

economies are limited to nontradable goods and Slums: Workers’ only option when urban
services ............................................................................ 12 economic density is low but highly
concentrated ...................................................................38
Crowded, disconnected, and thus costly — Africa’s
High population density at the city’s core,
cities are limited to nontradables by urban form ..... 16
rapid tapering on the outskirts ................................ 41
Crowded cities ............................................................. 16
Disconnected cities .................................................... 19 Not dense with capital ................................................... 41
Costly cities ..................................................................22 Not dense with buildings ...........................................44
Not dense with amenities, not livable .....................45
Closed for business, out of service:
Case studies: Access to amenities in Dar es
The urgency of a new urban development
Salaam, Durban, and elsewhere in Africa ...............50
path for Africa .................................................................26
Cities are “closed for business” ................................26 Low human capital .........................................................56
Cities are “out of service” ..........................................26
References ....................................................................... 61
Path dependence and interdependence.................27
Springing cities from the low development trap .......28
Formalize land markets, clarify
property rights, and institute effective Chapter 2 Page 63
urban planning ............................................................28 Disconnected land,
Make early and coordinated infrastructure people and jobs
investments — allowing for interdependence
among sites, structures, and basic services ...........29 Disconnected land .........................................................64
Opening the doors .........................................................30 Collections of small and fragmented
neighborhoods............................................................64
Annex: African cities used in the analysis ..................32 Spatial fragmentation ................................................65
References .......................................................................34 People not connected to people:
High fragmentation, low exposure,
little potential for interaction .......................................69
People not connected to jobs .......................................71
Lack of transportation infrastructure .....................71
Lack of money for transportation ............................ 74

Inaccessible employment ..........................................79
References .......................................................................83
47 PM
Part II Africa’s Low Urban Urban planning institutions and land

use regulation ............................................................... 131
Development Trap Strengthening capacity and resources for
urban planning ..........................................................132
Addressing coordination constraints across
Chapter 3 Page 87 levels of government ................................................132
Costly for households, Urban regulations ........................................................133
costly for firms Streamlining administrative procedures ..............133
Relaxing planning standards ..................................133
High prices, low incomes...............................................88
To build cities that work, make land markets
High wages, high costs of doing business ..................96 work — nothing less will do ........................................136
References .......................................................................99 References .....................................................................137
Chapter 4 Page 101 Chapter 6 Page 139

Africa’s urban Scaling up and coordinating
development trap investments in physical structures
and infrastructure
Cities closed for business............................................102
The “nontradables trap”: Theory ............................102 Investing early in infrastructure to shape
The “nontradables trap”: Evidence ........................105 urban structures ..........................................................140
Sunk costs, construction, and the Leveraging road investment .......................................143
expectations trap ......................................................... 112 Bus rapid transit: One option among many .........143
Integrated urban planning, regulation,
References ..................................................................... 114
and transportation investments ............................145
Roads, densification, and land use change in
four East African cities .............................................148
Part III Springing Africa from Its Citywide economic benefits of road
Low Urban Development Trap improvements in Kampala ......................................150
Provide public goods and services for livability ...... 151
Chapter 5 Page 117 Finance for lumpy urban infrastructure

investments...................................................................155
Clarifying property rights and
strengthening urban planning References .....................................................................158
Why African cities fail to attract investment:

An urban planner’s perspective ................................. 118
Capital misallocation ................................................ 118
About the contributors
Institutional constraints .......................................... 118 Page 160
Ineffectual property rights ...................................... 121

The example of Nairobi ...........................................122
Clear land and property rights ...................................123
Land valuation and prices ...........................................129
Removing data and legal obstacles .......................129
Improving tax collection ..........................................130
47 PM
Figures
1 The share of firms in internationally traded and nontradable 2.9 In Kigali, workers in the informal sector have
sectors varies widely across developing country cities................13 shorter commutes ............................................................................75
2 In resource-exporting countries, urbanization is linked only 2.10 The typical household in many African cities cannot afford
weakly to the development of manufacturing and services in public transport fares.......................................................................77
countries that export natural resources ........................................15 2.11 Scale economies in vehicle size should lead to the
3 Connections among people as a function of population near provision of collective transportation through large vehicles
the city center: Nairobi, Kenya, is more fragmented and less toward the city center and smaller ones as distance to the
well-connected than Pune, India ....................................................18 city center increases .........................................................................78
4 “Leapfrog development” undermines economies of scale 2.12 A very large share of trips in African cities are made by foot .....79
and agglomeration ...........................................................................20 3.1 African cities face high prices for their income levels ..................89
5 Paved roads occupy a smaller share of urban land in Africa 3.2 Consumers in Africa face high price premiums ............................91
than elsewhere — and usually drop off abruptly beyond the
city center ..........................................................................................21 3.3 Households in African cities grapple with subsistence ................92
6 A fragmented urban form is associated with higher 3.4 Average time and cost to register property in Sub-Saharan
urban costs ........................................................................................23 countries and international benchmarks ......................................93
7 Urban living costs in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2011 3.5 Average time and cost to deal with construction permits in
exceeded costs elsewhere, relative to Africans’ lower per c Sub-Saharan countries and international benchmarks ...............94
apita GDP ...........................................................................................24 3.6 Infrastructure costs per capita decrease with density .................95
8 Urban households — especially poor ones — spent large shares 3.7 A fragmented urban form is associated with higher
of their budgets on transportation (analysis from 2008) ............25 urban costs ........................................................................................96
1.1 Very high proportions of city dwellers live in slums in Africa .....40 3.8 Nominal manufacturing wages in African cities are higher
1.2 Population density in African cities is lower than in some than in other developing-country cities .........................................97
other regions .....................................................................................40 3.9 Sales revenue per worker in African and other developing-
1.3 The value of building stocks in African cities is low ......................44 country cities .....................................................................................98
1.4 Large shares of the population in Dar es Salaam lack access 4.1 Supply and demand for labor in a “local” city .............................103
to basic sanitation and water services ...........................................50 4.2 Supply and demand for labor in an internationally
1.5 Access to improved water and sanitation in Dar es Salaam competitive city ...............................................................................104
tends to rise with distance from the center ..................................51 4.3 The tradables sector is much larger in Asia than in Africa ........106
1.6 Access to improved sanitation and piped water at home is 4.4 Urbanization and manufacturing share of GDP in Africa and
low across Dar es Salaam ................................................................52 outside Africa ..................................................................................108
1.7 Access to Services in Durban decreases with distance from 4.5 The share of land devoted to slums increases with distance
the city center....................................................................................53 from the city center ........................................................................112
1.8 Moving to Durban improved migrants’ access to basic 5.1 Average distances to commercial and industrial areas
services before but not after 2000 .................................................53 from formal and informal settlements in Dar es Salaam,
1.9 Within-city moves in Durban are less likely to yield better Tanzania, and Kigali, Rwanda ........................................................120
sanitation than they did in the past ...............................................54 5.2 Larger agglomerations have higher, and increasing,
1.10 Access to piped water, septic tanks, and electricity improved tensions over land prices ...............................................................124
in Maputo, Mozambique, between 1997 and 2013 ......................55 5.3 Key players in urban development in Tanzania and Uganda ...134
1.11 Access to piped water, septic tanks, and electricity improved 5.4 Average time and cost to register property in African
in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo, between 2007 countries and international benchmarks in 2015 ......................135
and 2013 ............................................................................................55 5.5 Minimum lot sizes are large in Africa ...........................................136
1.12 Cognitive skills of most urban workers are limited, especially 6.1 Land values of de novo development projects are higher
in Africa ..............................................................................................60 than values in other neighborhoods of Dar es Salaam,
2.1 Three aspects of being connected..................................................65 including rich ones .........................................................................141
2.2 The average “openness index” of cities in Sub-Saharan Africa 6.2 Differential impacts of de novo and upgrading projects in
is not very different from the index of other regions ..................65 Dar es Salaam .................................................................................142
2.3 Land within five kilometers of the central business district is 6.3 Area around the Gangding station, in Guangzhou,
often left unbuilt in Africa ................................................................66 China, before and after construction of the bus rapid
2.4 African cities are more fragmented in the center than transit system ..................................................................................143
comparably sized cities in India ......................................................67 6.4 Average daily bus rapid transit passenger counts
2.5 Urban people in Africa have less potential for interaction than are much higher in Lagos than in Johannesburg........................145
urban people in other regions ........................................................69 6.5a Integrated urban planning and regulation promote density ....147
2.6 African cities are becoming more fragmented .............................70 6.5b Integrated urban planning and regulation promote density ....148
2.7 Paved roads occupy a smaller share of urban land in Africa 6.6 Percentage of area devoted to paved and unpaved roads
than elsewhere — and usually drop off abruptly beyond the in four East African cities, 2001 and 2013....................................149
city center ..........................................................................................71
2.8 Urban Africans spend a large share of their budgets on food,
leaving little for transport ................................................................74
47 PM
Boxes
6.7 Access to electricity by newly arrived migrants and other
residents in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana,
Nigeria, and Sierra Leone ..............................................................154
6.8 Gap between capital needs and budget resources of
city governments ............................................................................155 1 The promise of cities: Agglomeration economies and
6.9 Land-based financing instruments and city evolution ...............156 returns to scale .................................................................................14
2 Low capital investment in Sub-Saharan African
cities during a period of rapid urban growth ................................17
Maps
3 Urban land and property rights: A need for clarification.............29
4 Leveraging land values to finance Africa’s
urban infrastructure .........................................................................30
5 Building dense, connected, and efficient cities:
A.1 Location of African cities used in the analysis ..............................33
Two models of success ....................................................................31
1.1 Housing conditions and shortages in Sub-Saharan Africa,
1.1 Life in Africa’s cities is often miserable:
by subregion......................................................................................49
An urban migrant’s story .................................................................42
2.1 Change in land used by paved roads across four
1.2 The most valuable building structures are concentrated
African cities ......................................................................................73
near the city center...........................................................................45
2.2 Most job opportunities in Nairobi are inaccessible to
1.3 The contribution of cognitive and noncognitive skills
people without cars ..........................................................................80
to urban performance......................................................................59
3.1 Map of relative expensiveness of household consumption
2.1 Measuring fragmentation in urban form ......................................68
in Sub-Saharan Africa .......................................................................90
2.2 Is there a constant travel time budget?
5.1 Average built height in Nairobi, 2015 ...........................................123
The Zahavi conjecture ......................................................................75
5.2 Diversity of land rights in urban and peri-urban
4.1 Do natural resource exports explain why African
Africa, 2009 ......................................................................................124
cities specialize in nontradables?..................................................110
5.3 Land tenure systems in Greater Kampala ...................................126
5.1 Inappropriate building regulations hamper affordability .........119
6.1 The Kampala’s Northern Bypass allows traffic to bypass
5.2 Customary land rights in Durban, South Africa ..........................125
Kampala’s city center......................................................................151
5.3 Welfare costs of stymied redevelopment in Nairobi..................127
5.4 Recent actions to improve land administration
Tables
and common knowledge in Africa ................................................128
5.5 Land sharing and readjustment: Two ways to include
residents in urban redevelopment plans ....................................129
5.6 Leveraging land values to finance urban infrastructure............130
A.1 African cities included in the analysis, by population size ...........33 6.1 Bus rapid transit: Successful if handled with care ......................144
1.1 Slum population as percentage of total urban population 6.2 Alternate paths for improving urban mobility: Lessons
in selected cities, historically and in 2014......................................38 from China and Japan ....................................................................146
1.2 Percentage of population with access to water and sanitation, 6.3 Providing water to the poor in African cities ...............................152
by region ............................................................................................46
1.3 Housing amenities in Sub-Saharan Africa, by type of area
and expenditure quintile .................................................................47
1.4 Adult literacy rate, population 15+ years .......................................56
1.5 Youth literacy rate, population 15–24 years,
both sexes .........................................................................................57
1.6 Skills assessed in the STEP Survey ..................................................58
2.1 Accessibility to formal jobs in Nairobi ............................................81
2.2 Estimated capital costs of building various types of

transportation infrastructure ..........................................................82
4.1 Top 10 commodity exports from Asia and Africa, 2000–10 ......107
5.1 Percentage of land registered and number of days required to
transfer property in selected countries and regions .................127
5.2 Ratio of registered planners to population in selected
countries, circa 2011 ......................................................................132
47 PM
Acknowledgments
This volume is part of the African Regional Studies The report draws on a set of over twenty-five
Program, an initiative of the Africa Region Vice- research papers produced as part of a research
Presidency at the World Bank. This series of program on Urbanization and Spatial Development
studies aims to combine high levels of analytical in Developing Countries, conducted by the World
rigor and policy relevance, and to apply them Bank, Oxford University and the London School
to various topics important for the social and of Economics. The research has been supported
economic development of Sub-Saharan Africa. by generous financial contributions from UK-
The Office of the Chief Economist for the Africa Aid through the Multi-donor Trust Fund on
Region provides quality control and oversight. Sustainable Urbanization at the World Bank.
A team led by Somik V. Lall, together with J. Vernon The team received valuable comments from
Henderson and Antony J. Venables, prepared this Richard Damania, Marianne Fay, Indermit Gill,
report. Members of the core team included Juliana William Maloney (peer reviewers), Souleymane
Aguilar, Ana Aguilera, Sarah Antos, Paolo Avner, Coulibaly, Eric Lancelot, Mark Lundell, and Roland
Olivia D’Aoust, Chyi-Yun Huang, Patricia Jones, Nancy White. The team thanks Francisco H. G. Ferreira
Lozano Gracia, and Shohei Nakamura. Neeraj Baruah, for providing guidance to the team during his
Louise Bernard, Julia Bird, John Felkner, Arti Grover tenure as Africa Chief Economist for the World
Goswami, Rashmin Gunasekara, Rawaa Harati, Bank. The team benefited from discussions with
and Dzhamilya Nigmatulina provided additional Abebaw Alemayehu, Andre Bald, Mapi M. Buitano,
research inputs. Paul Collier, Indermit Gill and William Meskerem Brhane, Punam Chuhan-Pole, Narae
Maloney were key advisors to the report team. Choi, Dean Cira, Sateh Chafic El-Arnaout, Sylvie
Debomy, Roger Gorham, Andre Herzog, Sheila
The main authors and contributors were:
Kamanyori, Michel Matera, Megha Mukim, Shomik
• The Overview was written by Somik V. Lall. Mehndiratta, Martin Onyach-Olaa, Dina Ranarifidy,
Apurva Sanghi, Maria Angelica Sotomayor and Roland
• Chapter 1 (Crowded with People, Not Dense
White. The team appreciates the opportunity to
with Capital) was written by Nancy Lozano
discuss the policy framework and findings at various
Gracia, J. Vernon Henderson, and Juliana Aguilar,
forums including at the East and Central African
with contributions from Ana Aguilera, Olivia
Forum (Kampala), Habitat III (Quito), Johns Hopkins
D’Aoust, Somik V. Lall and Tvisha Nevatia.
University (Washington DC), UN Habitat (Nairobi),
• Chapter 2 (Disconnected Land, People and Jobs) TDLC Seminar on Land Use Planning & Spatial
was written by Paolo Avner, J. Vernon Henderson Development (Tokyo), UK DFID (London), and World
and Somik V. Lall, with contributions from Neeraj Bank Sprig Meetings and workshops in Addis Ababa,
Baruah, Louise Bernard, Julia Bird, Olivia D’Aoust, Dar es Salaam, Nairobi, Pretoria, and Washington.
Somik V. Lall and Dzhamilya Nigmatulina.
The report has been produced under the supervision
• Chapter 3 (Costly for Households, Costly of Sameh Wahba, Director for Urban and Territorial
for Firms) was written by Olivia D’Aoust, Development, and the overall direction of Albert
Patricia Jones, and Shohei Nakamura, with Zeufack, Africa Chief Economist for the World Bank.
contributions from Rawaa Harati.
Nick Moschovakis and Bruce Ross-Larson, with a
• Chapter 4 (Africa’s Urban Development Trap) was team at Communications Development, edited the
written by Anthony J. Venables with contributions report. Zephyr designed and typeset the report.
J. Vernon Henderson and Patricia Jones.
• Chapter 5 (Clarifying Property Rights and

Strengthening Urban Planning) was written by
Chyi-Yun Huang, Olivia D’Aoust, and
Somik V. Lall, with contributions from
Juliana Aguilar and Julia Bird.
• Chapter 6 (Scaling up and Coordinating Investments
in Physical Structures and Infrastructure) was
written by Olivia D’Aoust and Somik V. Lall,
with contributions from Juliana Aguilar, John
Felkner, J. Vernon Henderson, and Julia Bird.
47 PM
8
47 PM
Overview
Africa’s Cities:
The low development trap

— Africa’s urban economies are limited
to nontradable goods and services
Crowded, disconnected, and thus costly

— Africa’s cities are limited to
nontradables by urban form
Out of service, closed for business:

The urgency of a new urban
development path for Africa
Springing cities from the low

development trap
Opening the doors

47 PM
African cities are crowded,

disconnected, and costly.
Typical African cities share three features that constrain urban

development and create daily challenges for residents:
Crowded, not economically dense — investments in infrastructure, industrial

and commercial structures have not kept pace with the concentration of
people, nor have investments in affordable formal housing; congestion
and its costs overwhelm the benefits of urban concentration.
Disconnected — cities have developed as collections of small and fragmented

neighborhoods, lacking reliable transportation and limiting workers’ job opportunities
while preventing firms from reaping scale and agglomeration benefits.
Costly for households and for firms — high nominal wages and transaction costs
deter investors and trading partners, especially in regionally and internationally
tradable sectors; workers’ high food, housing, and transport costs increase
labor costs to firms and thus reduce expected returns on investment.
55%
African households face
higher costs relative to their
per capita GDP than do
households in other regions
— much of it accounted
for by housing, which costs
them a full 55 percent more
in this comparison
10
47 PM
In eight
representative
African cities, roads
occupy far lower
shares of urban land
than in other cities
around the world.
20%
African cities are
20 percent more
fragmented than
are Asian and Latin
American ones.
In Harare, Zimbabwe, and Maputo, Mozambique,

more than 30 percent of land within 5 kilometers
of the central business district remains unbuilt.
472 million
Urban areas in Africa comprise
472 million people. That number
will double over the next 25 years
as more migrants are pushed to
cities from the countryside.
The largest cities grow as fast as 11
4 percent annually.
47 PM
Africa’s Cities:
Cities in Sub-Saharan Africa are experiencing rapid population growth.
Yet their economic growth has not kept pace. Why? One factor might
be low capital investment, due in part to Africa’s relative poverty: Other
regions have reached similar stages of urbanization at higher per capita
GDP. This study, however, identifies a deeper reason: African cities
are closed to the world. Compared with other developing cities, cities
in Africa produce few goods and services for trade on regional and
international markets (figure 1).
To grow economically as they are growing in size, dense — not merely crowded? How can they acquire
Africa’s cities must open their doors to the world. efficient connections? And how can they draw firms
They need to specialize in manufacturing, along with and skilled workers with a more affordable, livable
other regionally and globally tradable goods and urban environment?
services. And to attract global investment in tradables
From a policy standpoint, the answer must be
production, cities must develop scale economies,
to address the structural problems affecting
which are associated with successful urban economic
African cities. Foremost among these problems
development in other regions.
are institutional and regulatory constraints that
Such scale economies can arise in Africa, and they will misallocate land and labor, fragment physical
— if city and country leaders make concerted efforts development, and limit productivity. As long as African
to bring agglomeration effects to urban areas. Today, cities lack functioning land markets and regulations
potential urban investors and entrepreneurs look and early, coordinated infrastructure investments,
at Africa and see crowded, disconnected, and costly they will remain local cities: closed to regional and
cities. Such cities inspire low expectations for the global markets, trapped into producing only locally
scale of urban production and for returns on invested traded goods and services, and limited in their
capital. How can these cities become economically economic growth.
The low development trap — Africa’s urban economies are limited

to nontradable goods and services
How does the production of locally consumed, or Since the 1980s, much of the growth in developing
nontradable, goods and services trap cities into low countries has depended on the expansion of exports
economic growth? Put simply, producing for local through industrial production and higher technology.
markets limits returns to scale. The consumer base of Unlike nontradables, tradable goods and services
one city, however large, is much smaller than a regional face elastic global demand. They may also allow for
or global market. Specializing in nontradables for local agglomeration economies, which increase returns to
consumption leads to diminishing returns (both for employment (box 1). Rapidly growing cities require
technological reasons, and because prices are set locally growth in employment — and the returns to expanding
and decline as supply increases). In contrast, export employment are highest in tradable sectors.
markets are key to a dynamic industrial sector.
12
47 PM
Overview | The low development trap — Africa’s urban economies are limited to nontradable goods and services
FIGURE 1
Share of firms in internationally traded and nontradable sectors,

selected developing-country cities (latest post-2010 data)
Luanda
Gaborone
Dar es Salaam
Kampala
Kigali
Bamako
Accra
Nouakchott
Africa
Nairobi
Dakar
Addis Ababa
Kinshasa
Lagos
Niger
Mombasa
Lusaka
Harare
Middle East
North Africa
Tunis
Beirut
and
Amman
Cairo
La Paz
Asunción
Latin America
Caribbean
Cordoba
and the
Medellin
Bogota
Buenos Aires
Lima
Yangon
Pacific & South Asia
East Asia and the
Bangkok
Zhengzhou City
Dhaka
Shenzhen City
Delhi
Chittagong
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Nontradable Tradable
Source: Calculation based on the World Note: The data is from the latest WBE surveys post-2010 (with more than 15,000
Bank Enterprise (WBE) surveys. firms in capital cities, or cities of at least one million inhabitants, and with at least 50
firms sampled). Only firms with five or more employees are interviewed. The sectoral
specialization analyses used the UN International Standard Industrial Classification of
All Economic Activities (3.1 revision). Manufacturing, wholesale and commission trade,
and business services (such as travel agencies, transport, financial intermediation) are
all tradable activities. By contrast, construction, local services, retail trade, health and
social work, and other local activities are classified as nontradable.
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47 PM
Because of manufacturing’s importance in entering Why have African urban economies remained local?
regional and global markets, one can look at the share Two reasons stand out. One, paradoxically, is natural
of manufacturing in GDP to see whether an urbanizing resource development. Such development can create
economy is opening its doors to the world — or a high demand for nontradable goods and services.
closing them. For example, we compare the structures As growth in the natural resource sector raises factor
of non-African and African economies during periods prices, this sector crowds out others — notably
when the urbanized share of the population rises manufacturing (figure 2). Countries that depend
to 60 percent. Based on a cross-section of African heavily on natural resource exports tend to sprout
and non-African economies, the comparison urban economies dominated by nontradable services
shows that Africa’s cities are indeed trapped in the (“consumption cities”). This syndrome is known as
production of nontradables for local markets. As the Dutch Disease.
African economies attain 60 percent urbanization,
Another reason for Africa’s local urban economies
their share of manufacturing in GDP stays flat (or
is related to urban form: how cities are built and
somewhat falling) at about 10 percent. In contrast, the
spatially organized. The findings in this report draw
manufacturing share of the non-African economies
on spatial and economic analysis based on 64 cities
rises from 10 percent to nearly 20 percent (falling back
covering large, medium, and small cities across
only when urbanization exceeds 60 percent).
Africa and shows that cities are growing under a
patchwork of constraints — inefficient land markets,
BOX 1
The promise of cities: Agglomeration

economies and returns to scale
What is an urban agglomeration economy, and how has many benefits. Certain public goods — like
does it arise from economic density? A simple case infrastructure and basic services — are cheaper to
is the reduction of transport costs for goods: When provide when populations are large and densely
suppliers are close to their customers, shipping costs packed together. Firms located near each other can
decline. In the late nineteenth century, four fifths share suppliers, lowering input costs. Thick labor
of Chicago’s jobs were compactly located within markets reduce search costs, giving firms a larger
four miles of State and Madison Streets — near pool of workers to choose from. And spatial proximity
residences and infrastructure (Grover and Lall 2015). makes it easier for workers to share information and
And in the early 1900s, New York and London were learn from each other. International evidence shows
manufacturing powerhouses because factories were that knowledge spillovers play a key role in boosting
built there to access customers and transport services. the productivity of successful cities.
Many agglomeration benefits increase with scale:
Evidence from East Asia (China, the Republic of
Each doubling of city size increases productivity by 5
Korea, Vietnam) points clearly to a close association
percent, and the elasticity of income with respect to
between episodes of rapid urbanization and economic

city population is between 3 percent and 8 percent
development. Unfortunately, these links appear
(Rosenthal and Strange 2004).
weak in Sub-Saharan Africa. Cities in Africa are not
Productivity gains are closely linked to urbanization delivering agglomeration economies or reaping urban
through their ties to structural transformation and productivity benefits; instead, they suffer from high
industrialization. As countries urbanize, workers move costs for food, housing, and transport. These high
from rural to urban areas in search of better paid and costs — rising from coordination failures, poorly
more productive jobs. Similarly, entrepreneurs locate designed policies, weak property rights, and other
their firms in cities where agglomeration economies factors that lower economic density — lock firms into
will increase their productivity. Close spatial proximity producing nontradable goods and services.
14
47 PM
Overview | The low development trap — Africa’s urban economies are limited to nontradable goods and services
overlapping property-rights regimes, suboptimal with original research and analysis to explain how
and ineffective zoning regulations — that hinder the the form of African cities is trapping them into local
drive toward dense concentrations of structures. and nontradable production — and to point leaders
More, the resulting scattered neighborhoods lack toward policies that can spring the trap.
planned transport and infrastructure connections.
To be sure, urban form is not the only constraint
Without either high physical density or adequate
on Africa’s international competitiveness. Other
connective infrastructure, an urban area falls short of
important factors include business regulation; the lack
its potential: It cannot offer firms the cost efficiencies
of access to finance (for residential and commercial
and job matching advantages that open a city’s doors
investments); the peculiarity of Africa’s demographic
to regional and global trade.
transition; the absence of agricultural productivity
Even if the symptoms of Dutch Disease are mitigated gains; and, more generally, the macroeconomic
by falling commodity prices, the typical African city context. These factors compound the risk that Africa’s
will remain bound by constraints related to its form. cities will remain unwelcoming to investment — that
These physical constraints deter regional and global their development will continue along paths that
investment. And because they are likely to persist preclude their entry into higher-productivity tradable
as the principal constraints on economic growth, goods sectors. And yet this threat of path dependency
addressing them is one of Africa’s most urgent is itself closely, demonstrably related to the evolution
challenges today. This report combines recent findings of cities’ physical form.
FIGURE 2
In resource exporting countries, urbanization is linked only weakly to

the development of manufacturing and services
Nonresource exporters Resource exporters
100
Urbanization rate in 2010 (percent)
Sub-Saharan Africa
Other
80
60
40
20
20 40 60 80 100 20 40 60 80 100
Share of manufacturing and services in GDP in 2010 (percent)
Source: Gollin, Jedwab, and Vollrath 2016.
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Crowded, disconnected, and thus costly — Africa’s cities are

limited to nontradables by their urban form
Many Sub-Saharan African cities share three Workers should consume more diverse products and
characteristics that constrain economic development services, pay less for what they consume, and enjoy
and growth. Two appear directly in the cities’ physical easier commutes because of proximity to their jobs.
structures and spatial form: They are crowded with
Africa’s cities feel crowded precisely because they
people and dwellings, and they are disconnected by
are not dense with economic activity, infrastructure,
a lack of transport and other infrastructure. Finally,
or housing and commercial structures. Without
and in Part because they are disconnected, cities are
adequate formal housing in reach of jobs, and without
also costly. Indeed, they are among the costliest in the
transport systems to connect people living farther
world, both for firms and for households — not least
away, Africans forgo services and amenities to live in
because of their inefficient spatial form.
cramped quarters near their work. Often informal,
these downtown districts are likely to lack adequate
infrastructure and access to basic services. It is true
that, within Africa as in other developing regions,
population density is generally and strongly correlated
with indicators of livability. For example, access to
Crowded cities services is higher for African households in urban
African cities are crowded in that they are packed with areas than in rural ones (Gollin, Kirchberger, and
people who live in unplanned, informal downtown Lagakos 2016). But this relative advantage does not
dwellings to be near jobs. Why? The immediate reason imply that cities are livable enough. Across Africa, 60
is that the urbanization of people is not accompanied percent of the urban population is packed into slums
by an urbanization of capital (box 2). Housing, — much higher than the 34 percent seen elsewhere
infrastructures, and other capital investments are (United Nations 2015a).
lacking. Across the region, housing investment lags
urbanization by nine years (Dasgupta, Lall, and Related to the predominance of informal housing near
Lozano-Gracia 2014). African city centers is their relative lack of built-up
area. For example, in both Harare, Zimbabwe and
An underlying cause of this crowding is that African Maputo, Mozambique, more than 30 percent of land
cities are not economically dense or efficient within five kilometers of the central business district
enough to promote scale economies and attract remains unbuilt. This land near the core is not left
capital investment. In principle, cities should benefit unbuilt by design in African cities, as it can be in well-
businesses and people through increased economic developed downtowns such as Paris (which reserves
density. Firms clustered in cities should be able to 14 percent of downtown land for green space, making
access a wider market of inputs and buyers, with densely populated districts more livable). Instead,
reduced production costs thanks to scale economies. outdated and poorly enforced city plans, along with
dysfunctional property markets, create inefficient land
use patterns that no one intended. The downtown
lacks structures — despite being crowded.
3
Throughout Dar es Salaam,
28 percent of residents live
at least three to a room
This figure rises to 50 percent in Abidjan
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Overview | Crowded, disconnected, and thus costly — Africa’s cities are limited to nontradables by their urban form
BOX 2
Low capital investment in Sub-Saharan African

cities during a period of rapid urban growth
Africa’s cities are crowded because they lack formal, planned
housing that is connected to jobs and services. Without sufficient
formal development, informal settlements that are relatively
central and thus close to jobs — such as Kibera in Nairobi, and
Tandale in Dar es Salaam — are constantly growing in population.
In Dar es Salaam, 28 percent of residents live at Housing investment in Africa has also lagged
least three to a room; in Abidjan, 50 percent (World behind that in other low income and middle
Bank 2015a, World Bank 2016). And in Lagos, income economies. Between 2001 and 2011,
Nigeria, two out of three people dwell in slums African low income countries invested 4.9 percent
(World Bank 2015b). of GDP in housing, compared with 5.5 percent
elsewhere; and African middle income countries
One factor in the crowding of Africa’s cities is
invested 6.5 percent of GDP in housing, compared
their lack of capital investment, which for the
with 9 percent elsewhere (Dasgupta, Lall, and
past four decades has remained relatively low
Lozano-Gracia 2014).
in the region, at around 20 percent of GDP. In
contrast, urbanizing countries in East Asia — These figures underline the fact that Africa is
China, Japan, the Republic of Korea — stepped up urbanizing while poor — indeed, strikingly poorer
capital investment during their periods of rapid than other developing regions with similar
urbanization. Between 1980 and 2011, China’s urbanization levels. In 1968, when countries in
capital investment (infrastructure, housing, and the Middle East and North Africa region became
office buildings) rose from 35 percent of GDP to 40 percent urban, their per capita GDP was
48 percent, while the urban share of its population $1,800 (2005 constant dollars). And in 1994,
rose from 18 percent to 52 percent between when countries in the East Asia and Pacific region
1978 and 2012. In East Asia as a whole, capital surpassed the same threshold, their per capita
investment remained above 40 percent of GDP at GDP was $3,600. By contrast, Africa, with 40
the end of this period. percent urbanization, today has a per capita GDP
of just $1,000 (box figure 2.1).
BOX FIGURE 2.1
Sub-Saharan Africa is urbanizing, but at lower levels of per capita GDP than other regions
$3,617
41% 41%
37% 37%
GDP $1,860 $1,806 Urbanization

per capita rate
(2005 dollars) $1,018 (percent)
Latin America Middle East East Asia Sub-Saharan

and the and North and the Africa
Caribbean Africa Pacific (2013)
(1950) (1968) (1994)
Source: Estimations using United Note: Years in parentheses are those with available data in which the region was
Nations 2014 and WDI 2014 for the closer to Sub-Saharan Africa’s present urban share of about 40 percent. In 1950
share of urban population, and WDI urbanization in Latin America and the Caribbean was 41 percent; in 1968 urbanization
2014 and Maddison Project to estimate in Middle East and North Africa was 41 percent; in 1994 urbanization in East Asia and
GDP per capita. the Pacific was 37 percent; in 2013 urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa was 37 percent.
17
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FIGURE 3
Connections among people as a function of population

near the city center: Nairobi, Kenya is more fragmented
and less well-connected than Pune, India
Nairobi (population 4.265 million)
Pune (population 5.574 million)
0 - 364
365 - 103
1,033 - 22
2,295 - 40
4,042 - 67
6,735 - 97
9,777 - 13,984
13,985 - 19,534
19,535 - 27,747
27,748 - 39,955
Source: Henderson and Nigmatulina 2016. Note: The blue bars show the highest
densities in the city. While these peaks 39,956 - 53,912
are concentrated in Pune, in Nairobi
they are separated by lower densities. 53,913 - 71,973
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47 PM
Our analysis of imagery from satellites and geographic The lack of connections among neighborhoods
information systems (GIS) confirms that in African means that African cities, compared with developed
cities, capital investment not only appears low near and developing cities elsewhere, show both lower
the urban core, but rapidly declines outside it. A stark exposure and higher fragmentation in connections
contrast emerges between patterns of downtown among people living near the city center.
population density — in which Africa largely resembles
• Low exposure means that people are disconnected
other regions — and of economic density (as reflected
from each other. At a given distance (usually 10
in patterns visible from above that indicate capital
kilometers), they cannot interact with as many
investment). Africa’s generally low levels of urban
people as in a city with higher exposure.
capital investment also appear in the assessed worth
of building stock. For example, the total economic • High fragmentation means that within a specified
value of buildings in Dar es Salaam is estimated at area, population density varies widely: Its peaks
around US$12 billion (Ishizawa and Gunasekera 2016), are scattered, not clustered in a way that could
or just less than three times the city’s share of GDP. promote scale economies. Fragmentation increases
Even lower are the estimated values for Nairobi, Kenya infrastructure costs, while it lengthens travel times
($9 billion) and Kigali, Rwanda ($2 billion). Compared among homes, job sites, and businesses.
with cities in Central America, African cities have low
According to a new study of 265 cities in 70 countries
replacement values for their built-up area, built-floor
that controls for total population and per capita GDP,
area, and population. Thus, Nairobi has the highest
average exposure near the center is 37 percent lower
replacement value per square kilometer among the
in African cities than in Asian and Latin American cities,
four African cities studied, yet it is just 60 percent of
while African cities are 23 percent more fragmented
the value of Tegucigalpa, which has the lowest among
(Henderson and Nigmatulina 2016). The contrast
six Central American cities.
between Nairobi, Kenya and Pune, India illustrates
Although the capital investment shortfall that makes these differences (figure 3).
African cities crowded appears across all building
One pattern that explains the low exposure and high
types, it is most severe in housing. In Nairobi, for
fragmentation of African cities is their relative lack of
example, commercial and industrial structures explain
new development near the center. New construction
55 percent of the total value of building stock — even
is not clustered to make capital more concentrated
though these structures occupy just 4 percent of the
and increase economic density. Instead, it tends to
city’s area. Residential development is urgently lacking.
push the boundaries of the city outward. In urban
development language, this kind of building-out
represents either expansion or leapfrog development;
opposed to both is infill, which makes cities denser.
• Expansion development enlarges a city’s footprint at
Disconnected cities the edge of the consolidated urban area.
While the lack of capital by itself might not always pose • Leapfrog development also enlarges the footprint,
an obstacle to economic growth, African cities also but does so by establishing satellite areas — parcels
are disconnected in that they are spatially dispersed. of newly built land that do not border on or overlap
Structures are scattered in small neighborhoods. existing development.
Without adequate roads or transport systems,
commuting is slow and costly, denying workers access • Infill development is construction on unbuilt parcels
to jobs throughout the larger urban area. People surrounded by existing developments.
and firms are separated from each other and from Among the three types of new development, infill
economic opportunity. And because urban form is is the best for economic exposure, or connections
determined by long-lived structures that shape the city among people: It defragments the city and connects
for decades — if not centuries — cities that assume a workers, jobs, and firms. Expansion and leapfrog
disconnected form can easily become locked into it. development are the opposite: They are less likely
to foster economic connections. Our analysis of GIS
imagery for 21 African cities over 2000–2010 shows
that, during this period, between 46 and 77 percent of
new development occurred as expansion. The share of
infill was typically much lower.
19
47 PM
FIGURE 4
Leapfrog development: Undermining scale and agglomeration economies

in African cities
60
1990–2000
percentage of total new patches
50
2000–2010
New leapfrog patches a
40
30
20
10
t
k
ey
Su s
ta
la a
To o
a
ou
do ar
N o
Lu bi
ka
ak ra
m i
la
M la
Ba to
o
Ka al
ot
di
go
kr
oe
ub
Bu uj
ay
ak
pa
ya
ro
ku
u
ou cc
ga ak
g
m
sa
ug
Ka
ch
Ad
Ab
na
ap
Ki
La
w
m
dh
N
ai
A
ia
ua D
Co
N
in
W
N
O
Source: Construction based on data in Baruah (2015). Note: Leapfrog patches as a share of all new development
patches, by city, 1990–2000 and 2000–2010. Leapfrog
patches are defined as continuous built-up area that do
not border or intersect with existing development.
An even greater concern than the preference for In Nairobi, the average journey-to-work time is one
expansion over infill development is the increase of the longest for 15 global cities studied (IBM 2011).
in leapfrog development, which is now appearing Part of the reason is that walking accounts for a large
outside various cities. In Bamako and Maputo, such share of commuting — in Nairobi about 41 percent
leapfrog patches account for more than 50 percent (UNEP and FIA Foundation 2013). But even if more
of the change to the urban fabric over 2000–2010. In city dwellers could afford transport by car or minibus,
many other cities this share approaches or exceeds 40 commutes would remain impractical for lack of roads.
percent (figure 4). The patches often being small, their In eight representative African cities, roads occupy far
isolation from existing development will undermine lower shares of urban land than in other cities around
city governments’ efforts to provide the networked the world.
services that require scale economies — and that
The deficiency of urban road infrastructure is made
undergird urban productivity.
worse by its extreme concentration near the core
The prevalence of expansion and especially leapfrog of African cities, leaving outer areas disconnected.
development is just one pattern that makes urban Our GIS study shows that in well-developed cities
commuting challenging in African cities; another is outside Africa, land allocated to roads declines only
deficient transport infrastructure. Traffic congestion gradually as one looks out from the center toward the
can hobble the economy with long commuting times. periphery: An example is Paris (figure 5). By contrast,
20
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FIGURE 5
Paved roads occupy a smaller share of urban land in Africa than elsewhere —
and usually drop off abruptly beyond the city center
Built-up Paved roads Open space
Barcelona London
100 100
Percentage of urban land

80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
CBD
CBD
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Paris Kigali
100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
CBD
CBD
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Africa’s urban roads are disproportionately clustered density, Africa’s city centers remain dominated by a
near the center. In Addis Ababa, Dar es Salaam, Kigali, retail industry that does not benefit from economies
and Nairobi, paved roads drop off so abruptly outside of specialization: For example, in Kigali and Kampala
the downtown area that they nearly disappear (Dakar many urban workers purvey food and beverages.
being a notable exception to the African pattern). The spatial fragmentation of Africa’s cities prevents
Households in African cities find it difficult to settle firms from reaping both scale and agglomeration
outside central business districts, as the lack of benefits. It prevents scale economies by reducing
paved roads makes commuting from the periphery workers’ access to jobs, constraining firm size: Africa’s
impractical (Felkner, Lall, and Lee 2016). urban firms employ 20 percent fewer workers on
average than comparable firms elsewhere (Iacovone,
Considered as a whole, the average urban area
Ramachandran, and Schmidt 2014). In addition, spatial
in Africa is not strikingly less built-up than its
fragmentation hinders agglomeration economies by
counterparts in other regions (except in Asia, where
preventing job market pooling and matching and the
cities are more densely built; Angel and others
transfer of skills and knowledge — a special concern in
2011). What is lacking is the economically dense
light of African cities’ low human capital endowments.
concentration of capital and infrastructure investment
Urban agglomeration economies thrive on knowledge
that enables households to live decently and
spillovers, which presuppose a mix of specialized
affordably near jobs. Because of this lack of economic
21
47 PM
FIGURE 5 (cont.)
Paved roads occupy a smaller share of urban land in Africa than elsewhere —
and usually drop off abruptly beyond the city center
Built-up Paved roads Open space
Dar es Salaam Nairobi

100 100

80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
CBD
CBD
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Addis Ababa Dakar

100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
CBD
CBD
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 -4 -2 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Source: Based on Antos, Lall, and Lozano- Note: CBD = Central Business District. Data for European cities are from the European
Gracia 2016 and Felkner, Lall, and Lee 2016. Environment Agency’s Urban Atlas data layers. Data for African cities are from very high
resolution (0.5 m) satellite images taken in 2013.
cognitive skills in the labor market. African urban land use is fragmented. Its transport infrastructure
workers are relatively poor in such skills, according is insufficient, and too much of its development
to results from the first initiative to measure skills in occurs through expansion rather than infill. While the
low-income and middle-income countries (the World underlying causes of these problems are regulatory
Bank STEP Skills Measurement Program). If workers and institutional, the effects of spatial fragmentation
are to sort by ability — as they should to generate are material: It limits urban economies.
agglomeration economies — then Africa’s cities will
need, among other things, to restructure their labor Costly cities
market by attracting and growing more specialized
talent.
In sum, the ideal city can be viewed economically as
an efficient labor market that matches employers
and job seekers through connections (Bertaud 2014). Fragmented urban forms impose high living costs on
The typical African city fails in this matchmaker role. workers and households, resulting in indirect costs
A central reason for this failure — one that has not and other constraints for firms: In short, African
yet been sufficiently recognized — is that the city’s cities are costly both to live in and to do business in.
22
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FIGURE 6
A fragmented urban form is associated with higher urban costs
0.4
0.2
Price index
-0.2
-0.4
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1
People within 10 kilometers of average worker
Source: Estimations using Nakamura Note: The figure shows a residual-on-residual plot. The x-axis depicts the residuals from a
et al. (2016) and Henderson regression of the Puga10 Index, log scale (based on Henderson and Nigmatulina, 2016) controlling
and Nigmatulina (2016). for log GDP per capita, log population, a dummy for SSA, and percentage of urban population. The
y-axis plots residuals of the adjusted price index, log scale (based on Nakamura et al., 2016), on the
same controls. The lower the people within 10 km of the average worker, the higher the price index.
According to the new research underlying this report, Africa’s higher urban living costs appear in rents,
the higher cost of living in African cities is related to food prices, and prices for other goods and services.
their lack of dense spatial form and infrastructure City dwellers pay around 35 percent more for food
connections (figure 6). Higher spatial densities appear in Africa than in low-income and middle-income
to reduce costs: For example, a 1 percent reduction in countries elsewhere: a premium that looms larger
spatial fragmentation measured by the Puga Index is given the high share of African household incomes
associated with a 12 percent reduction in urban costs, that goes to food. Even higher differentials apply
controlling for income levels and city population. to urban housing (55 percent higher in urban areas
of African countries, relative to their income levels)
While higher living costs directly affect workers, they
and transport (42 percent higher in African cities
ultimately are borne by urban firms. Higher wages
than cities elsewhere, including vehicle prices and
mean lower returns — unless workers are more
transport services). Overall, urban households pay 20
productive. And without the economic density that
to 31 percent more for goods and services in African
gives rise to efficiency, Africa’s cities do not seem
countries than in other developing countries (figure 7).
to increase worker productivity. The result is that
investment expectations remain low for cities in
the region.
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47 PM
FIGURE 7
Urban living costs in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2011 exceeded

costs elsewhere, relative to Africans’ lower per capita GDP
210
190
Sub-Saharan African countries

Other economies
170
Fitted values
Adjusted price level index
150 Angola
Gabon
S. Africa
130 Namibia
Central Equatorial
African Congo Guinea
Republic Mauritius
Botswana
Swaziland
Congo.
110 Dem. Rep. Guinea-
Chad Ghana
Bissau
Mozambique Sudan
Malawi Lesotho Zambia
Liberia
Togo Senegal Nigeria
Burkina
Faso Benin
90 Niger Cameroon
Mali
Kenya
Rwanda
Guinea Sierra
Leone Mauritania
Burundi
Uganda
70 Gambia
Madagascar
Tanzania
Ethiopia
50
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Log of GDP per capita (2011 PPP$)
Source: Nakamura et al. 2016, based Note: The adjusted price level index (PLI) for household
on data from the 2011 International consumption excluding housing rent is standardized
Comparison Program (ICP) and WDI. so that the average PLI equals to 100. PLIs for 15
Asian countries are inflated by 10 percent.
24
47 PM
Urban workers in Africa incur high commuting costs higher nominal wages than urban firms in other
— or they cannot afford to commute by vehicle at all, countries at comparable development levels: unit
and must walk to work. The informal, often colorful labor costs are three times higher in Djiboutiville,
minibus systems that dominate collective motorized Djibouti, than in Mumbai, India and 20 percent higher
transit in most African cities are far from cost-efficient: in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania than in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
The buses’ low load factor (passenger capacity)
Cities in Africa are costly for households, workers, and
prevents them from realizing scale economies. For the
businesses. Because food and building costs are high,
poorest urban residents especially, the cost of vehicle
families can hardly remain healthy or afford decent
transport in some cities is prohibitive, as measured in
housing. Because commuting by vehicle is not only
a study from 2008 (figure 8). The need to walk to work
slow but expensive, workers find it hard to take and
limits these residents’ access to jobs.
keep jobs that match their skills. And the need for
The high cost of living affects not just households but higher wages to pay higher living costs makes firms
also firms, which have to pay higher wages in cities less productive and competitive, keeping them out of
where the cost of living is high. In addition, urban tradable sectors. As a result, African cities are avoided
workers may need to be compensated for poorer by potential regional and global investors and trading
living conditions in informal settlements with scarce partners.
amenities. Manufacturing firms in African cities pay
FIGURE 8
Share of urban household budgets spent or needed for transport in 11

Sub-Saharan African countries (analysis from 2008)
100
Percentage of household budget
Percent of household budget spent on transportation

80
Percent of bottom quintile household budget needed for two trips/day
60
40
20
0
s
am
la
bi
ar
l
go
ga
al
ab
ja
go
pa
ro
ak
ha
ou
id
la
Ki
La
Ab
ou
ai
m
D
ns
Ab
Sa
D
N
Ka
s
Ki
ga
es
di
Ad
ua
ar
O
D
Source: Kumar and Barrett 2008.
25
47 PM
Closed for business, out of service: The urgency of a new urban

development path for Africa
African cities are crowded as well as disconnected, The reason why a firm in the nontradable sector
making them costly for firms and for residents (see can afford to pay higher wages — while a firm in the
figure 6). Potential investors and trading partners tradable sector cannot — is that the nontradable
quickly see evidence of the physical and economic producer can raise its prices citywide. By doing so, it
dysfunction that constrains public service provision, passes its own cost increases on to consumers in the
inhibits labor market pooling and matching, and urban market. But such price hikes make the cost of
prevents firms from reaping scale and agglomeration living in a city even higher, contributing to the workers’
benefits. So these potential partners stay away, urban costs. This sequence can become a vicious cycle
fearing lack of return on their investment. that keeps African cities out of the tradable sector and
limits their economic growth.
The problem is not a simple one of underinvestment
leading to low infrastructure, but a more complex one Often, proposed solutions to Africa’s urban challenges
involving the interdependence of many investment focus simply on increased investments in structures
decisions. Business investment decisions depend or on reforming urban planning. These actions are
on the presence of other businesses — a firm’s necessary and urgent — but, by themselves, they
customers and its suppliers — and of workplaces that are unlikely to lift cities out of the nontradables trap.
can be reached from residential areas. Investment Why? because coordination failures tend to inhibit the
will flow into housing if demand rises, driven by rising formation of new clusters of economic activity, which
worker incomes. Infrastructure finance depends on are necessary for efficient tradables production (see,
revenues from a growing city. All these investments among others, Henderson and Venables 2009).
are interrelated, and in all of them expectations are
Given the dynamics described above, no firm wants
crucial. Investors’ low expectations become self-
to be the first to enter the tradables sector. Yet many
fulfilling when one investment fails to take place,
would become established if they could coordinate
reducing the expected return to others. The resulting
their entry. To enable coordination, a city needs a
vicious circle locks cities into a low development trap.
credible coordination agent: either a forward-looking
(The underlying analytic framework describing such
group of firms that can harmonize their plans and
traps is presented in Chapter 4.)
make a move together, or a large-scale land developer
or municipal government that can realize its vision
Cities are “closed for business” through major infrastructure investment (Henderson
A firm’s business decision to produce internationally and Venables 2009). Without such coordination the
tradable goods and services will depend on its input move into tradables will fail, leaving the city “closed for
costs. Among these input costs are urban costs: the business.”
added costs that workers face when living in a city.
Urban costs include rent, commuting costs, and the Cities are “out of service”
high price of many goods. To attract workers, firms
More than 60 percent of African’s urban population
must raise wages to offset (or partially offset) these
lives in areas with some combination of overcrowding,
costs. Yet even as nominal wages climb to reflect high
low-quality housing, and inadequate access to clean
or rapidly rising urban costs, real wages remain low
water and sanitation (United Nations 2015a). Why
(see chapter 4 for detailed discussion).
have cities in the region remained so deficient in

When urban costs drive nominal wages too high, firms housing and basic services?
will not be able to compete in the tradable sector
A fundamental reason is that Africa’s urban
and will produce only nontradables. The nontradable
dysfunction is self-perpetuating: It lowers
sector includes certain goods (beer and cement are
expectations, and low expectations deter the
examples), the construction trade, the retail trade,
investments needed for improvement. Housing
and many service sector activities, including informal
investment decisions shape urban form. Providing
sector employment. Demand for these goods and
housing in the formal sector means deciding to sink
services comes from income generated within the city
costs in long-lived structures. And such decisions
and its hinterland — but also from income transferred
depend critically on expectations for a city’s future
from outside, such as resource rents, tax revenues,
prospects. Cities that inspire high expectations will
and foreign aid.
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Overview | Closed for business, out of service: The urgency of a new urban development path for Africa
attract greater investment in formal sector structures, Path dependence and interdependence
including residential structures, which reduce urban
When a city appears “closed for business” and “out
costs and in turn attract more investment. In contrast,
of service,” potential partners stay away, fearing low
cities that seem likely to remain artisanal — based
to no returns. At present this vicious cycle of low
on low-value nontradables production — foster
expectations appears likely to keep Africa’s urban
low expectations for the growth of land rents over
economies undercapitalized, making the region’s
time. With little incentive for investment in formal
development all the more challenging.
structures, a lack of capital investment keeps cities
disconnected and urban costs high, perpetuating the Compounding this problem of low urban expectations
cycle. is the reality of path dependence –identified in recent
work as a central concern for policymakers. Cities
Alongside the general effect of low expected returns,
that grow inefficiently, without any effective plans or
specific features of the business and regulatory
incentives to integrate their physical form, are likely
environment in African cities create further barriers
to be locked into the resulting disconnected forms.
to capital investment. These features include property
Urban structures share a “putty-clay” quality: Once
law and land use regulations, along with the design
built, they are difficult to modify and can stay in place
and enforcement of urban plans.
for more than 150 years (Hallegatte 2009). In addition,
Systems of property law and land ownership in Africa infrastructure investment needs to be planned well
are often the first and most cumbersome regulatory in advance; if a growing city lacks a comprehensive,
burden weighing on urban development. For example, forward-thinking plan to provide basic infrastructure
a majority of the land in Kampala, Uganda operates services — sewerage, drainage, electricity, clean
under a complex land tenure regime that recognizes water, and connectivity — it will have to add them
independent rights over land and structures — giving later. That means adding them inefficiently and at far
rise to legal disputes and blocking investment (Muinde greater cost, and as afterthoughts and in response to
2013). The problem takes a different form in Nigeria, piecemeal demand from individuals (Collier 2016).
where urban land transactions incur high costs,
As important as path dependence is interdependence
and inefficient regulations further bog down formal
among urban structures, infrastructure, and services.
development. In Lagos and Port Harcourt, titling
Much of a structure’s value reflects complementarities
expenses alone can reach 30 percent of construction
with other structures in the neighborhood or city. For
costs, while total transaction costs range from 12 to 36
example, this report documents the benefits of road
percent of a property’s value (World Bank 2015b). As a
investments for private investments in residential and
result, land is developed informally: In Ibadan in 2000,
commercial structures (chapter 6). All social returns
researchers found that 83 percent of homes violated
on public infrastructure depend on the proximity
city zoning rules (Arimah and Adeagbo 2000).
of housing and premises: Thus, a rapid transit
Urban plans are largely ineffective in Africa. One system is more viable at higher densities. Policies
reason is that they are divorced from reality: They need to leverage these complementarities, avoiding
typically do not consider finances, market dynamics coordination failures and single-sector interventions
and interests, social diversity, or differences among that get in the way of economic density.
income groups. Another reason is that, when enacted,
Cities that continue on inefficient development paths
regulations lack built-in implementation mechanisms.
are growing, but in a counterproductive direction.
As a result, human capacity constraints and financial
Their physical structures and infrastructure will
resource constraints preclude effective enforcement.
not keep up with their rising population. As they
More generally, the intentions and outcomes of

continue to amass sunk capital — while passing up
urban plans are distorted by institutional failure and
opportunities for complementary investments that will
fragmentation (across sectors and levels); by political
never come again — they will sink deeper into the low
interference; and by lack of consideration of a city’s
development trap. And they might not dig themselves
political economy.
out. They could remain “out of service” and “closed for
Inappropriate or unrealistic regulations and opaque business” forever.
guidelines, especially on land ownership, impede
access to land and discourage the formal development
of city centers. Political risk can make future rents
even more unpredictable. As a result, the returns from
construction in Africa’s cities are intolerably uncertain
— and cities remain “out of service.”
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Springing cities from the low development trap

We now understand more about the low development (box 3). When these systems pose barriers to urban
trap in which African cities find themselves. They are land access, they impede the consolidation of plots
crowded rather than economically dense, and they are and the evolution of land use. Firms cannot readily
physically disconnected; as a result, they are costly. buy downtown land to convert it from low-density
High costs deter investors through low expected residential use into higher-density apartments, or
returns — while the city’s unlivable appearance vividly to build clusters of new commercial structures.
corroborates these low expectations. As a result, the Land transactions are long, costly, and complicated
urbanization of capital in Africa is lagging far behind (World Bank 2015c). Such market constraints reduce
the urbanization of people. Migrants crowd into slums, the collateral value of structures, giving developers
simply to be near where the jobs are. little incentive to invest in residential height — while
tempting all parties to enter informal arrangements
How can Africa’s leaders and policymakers spring
(Collier 2016).
cities from this trap? Crucially, they must first realize
that the problem does not begin with low capital Formalizing land markets is essential; so is making
investment and the lack of physical structures, or them work. Constraints on formal land markets
even with undersized infrastructure. To be sure, contribute to the typical African city’s spatial
low investment in structures limits urban economic fragmentation and to the relatively low capital
density; it exacerbates spatial fragmentation, and it investment near its core. Not only will efficient land
precludes agglomeration economies. But the lack of markets notably increase economic efficiency, they
investment results from low investor expectations, will also help African cities tap the potential of rising
which result when cities are spatially dispersed and land values to finance infrastructure and other public
disconnected. goods. (But such financing strategies bear risk; they
presuppose stable property rights and predictable law
When potential investors and trading partners look at
enforcement.)
African cities, they see spatial fragmentation and a lack
of connections. They know that such fragmentation While urban land markets need to work more
constrains public service provision, inhibits labor efficiently, cities also must strengthen their urban
market pooling and matching, and prevents firms plans and land use regulations. African cities today
from reaping scale and agglomeration benefits. use planning models and regulatory codes that
So the key to freeing Africa’s cities from their low may be relics of colonial regimes, or that may be
development trap is to set them on a path toward uncritically imported from developed countries
physical and economic density, connecting them for (Goodfellow 2013). Urban planning documents do not
higher efficiency and boosting expectations for the give credible accounts of finance, market dynamics, or
future. distributional impacts. Guidelines are not sufficiently
articulated, granular, or transparent to support
The first priority is to reform land markets and land
consistent and enforceable development planning.
use planning — to promote the most efficient uses of
Capacity and resource constraints undermine
urban land, and to develop land at scale.
implementation. City and country authorities will need
to add urban planning capacity — and to make tough
Formalize land markets,clarify property rights, political decisions informed by technical evidence and
and institute effective urban planning assessments.
Informal land markets are not good enough for African Land use regulations, such as zoning ordinances
cities. Urban land is a vital economic asset, and asset and building codes, are necessary to make urban
transactions are viable only where purchasers can rely plans into realities. Although planners may promote
on enduring extra-legal documentation of ownership. spatial density as a public good, the cost of investing
A formal market both offers purchasers the protection in housing and commercial structures is borne by
of the state and — because transactions are readily households and firms. (The benefits of economic
observable and recorded — generates the public good density and exposure are an externality.) Because
of accurate valuation. private actors on their own will not prevent market
Clear rights to urban land are a precondition for failures in the allocation and use of land, urban land
formal land markets. African cities struggle with use regulations must be clear and their enforcement
overlapping and sometimes contradictory property- predictable.
rights systems — formal, customary, and informal
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Overview | Springing cities from the low development trap
BOX 3
Urban land and property rights: A need for clarification
Unclear land rights are severely constraining urban fiscal obligations, so lenders cannot always use land
land redevelopment throughout Africa, imposing high as collateral. In Sub-Saharan Africa, only 10 percent
costs. Under the customary rules for land tenure that of total land is registered (Byamugisha 2013). In
control much urban and peri-urban land, property West Africa, only 2–3 percent of land is held with a
rights depend on the consent of local chiefs or family government-registered title (Toulmin 2005).
elders. One example is Durban, South Africa. Other
The good news is that African countries are taking
examples are in Ghana, Lesotho, Mozambique, and
steps to clarify land rights. Botswana took the
Zambia. Such cities often struggle with overlapping
bold step of regularizing customary lands in 2008,
and conflicting tenure systems — formal, customary
partly because the Land Boards faced challenges to
and informal.
administering tribal land (Malope and Phirinyane
Even where formal titles or clear land rights exist, 2016). Zambia passed a new planning bill in 2015,
basic mapping, geographic or ownership information extending planning controls across state and
is often inaccurate or land records maintained poorly, customary land and designating all local authorities
causing disputes. Applying for formal recognition as planning authorities (Wesseling 2016). Namibia
can also be tedious and costly (Toulmin 2005). In recognizes traditional leaders as part of the formal
Mozambique one can apply for concession to a land system; they are designated by the president
land plot from the relevant municipal directorate or and their details published in the government gazette
municipal cadaster services. But the application can (United Nations 2015b).
involve as many as 103 administrative steps over
Some countries and cities are developing hybrid
several years (UN-Habitat 2008). The lack of a proper
regimes to make formal and customary administration
registration system prevents urban land markets from
more compatible. For example, in Nigerian states with
functioning well, and it creates obstacles to the raising
largely Muslim populations, the emir’s representatives
of capital for development and investment — and to
subdivide and allocate land with the help of volunteer
the raising of revenue by the local authority.
professionals from government: An example is the
Across Africa, opaque and inadequate land databases city of Rigasa, in the extreme west of Kaduna (Igabi,
and information systems distort land prices and Local Government Area, Nigeria). Future Urban
availability. Finally, land administration systems (such redevelopers in Africa may learn from the past
as registries and cadaster records) are incomplete and successes of two approaches — land sharing and land
underused for enforcing legal claims and landholders’ readjustment — in several Asian cities.
The market pricing of land depends partly on other infrastructure projects carry high sunk costs: Like
policies besides land use regulations. Taxes, charges, any large structures, they depreciate very slowly
and subsidies can be used to complement regulations, over decades or even centuries (Philibert 2007). And
creating financial incentives and disincentives. the costs of developing housing, infrastructure, and
Revenues — land taxes, for example — can also be industrial premises depend on sequencing. Consider
used to finance administration and infrastructure. the relation of new transport systems and industrial
And implementation tools such as capital investment, zones. If not coordinated with one another, and with
budget, and phasing plans can assist upstream land markets and land use regulations, these projects
planning. can put cities on a counterproductive development
path.
Make early and coordinated infrastructure Such large investments, especially at scale, will require
investments — allowing for interdependence financing through new systems of revenue. Public
among sites, structures, and basic services infrastructure projects incur costs far in advance of
their benefits to productivity and livability, and the
Research conducted for this study supports the value
large capital outlays required can appear daunting.
of early investments in neighborhood infrastructure
The central government transfers on which African
and services (chapter 6). But coordination among
cities often rely will not suffice. City leaders, country
these investments is equally crucial, given that cities
authorities, and the international aid community
are both path-dependent and interdependent. Large
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BOX 4
Leveraging land values to finance

Africa’s urban infrastructure
Making Africa’s cities well connected and economically on the economic activity of the owner — so, unlike in
dense will entail huge infrastructure investments. production, no owner behavior exists to be distorted.)
Urban public finance in the region has traditionally
Higher revenues from land and real estate can come
relied on revenues from intergovernmental transfers.
through:
Future investments should leverage the value of city
assets — mainly land — to finance infrastructure and • Improved valuation of land and properties closer to
provide public goods and services. their market value, deepening the tax base.
Land-based infrastructure financing will bring the • Improved enforcement of land and property taxes
biggest payoff where cities are growing rapidly. on a larger number of owners, broadening the tax
Rapid growth drives swift increases in land prices base.
and creates large revenue opportunities. Yet it also
• Monetization of underused public land.
magnifies infrastructure investment needs, requiring
major sources of development finance. Land-based Devising systems of land and real estate taxation
financing has funded large leaps in the scale of urban that promote economic density is not easy. Strong
investment in France, Japan, and the United States. institutions are needed to clearly define property
rights; to ensure standardized and objective methods
Taxes on land can fund investments while also
of land valuation; and to support and oversee land
promoting more efficient land use — giving
management, land sales, and tax collection. For pure
landowners an incentive to develop the land to its
real estate taxes, policymakers should realize that
most profitable use given the market value of their
property values generally respond more slowly than
property. Valuable downtown land will become
other taxable wealth to annual changes in economic
more densely developed, attracting investment in
activity — while “property areas” respond still more
residential and commercial structures. And land taxes
slowly.
are nondistortionary. (Appreciated land values are
economic rents for a scarce resource, not a return
should therefore study various financing options. One strong signal to other potential investors. It has been
is to leverage land values (box 4) — although many argued that “investments sunk historically, even small
cities in Sub-Saharan Africa are not currently allowed ones that have now depreciated completely, might
to raise revenues from land (World Bank 2015c), and serve as a mechanism to coordinate contemporary
their weak fiscal cadaster records and capacities pose investment” (Bleakley 2012).
a further challenge.
Decisions about a city’s growth pattern, based on
Unregulated markets are unlikely to solve the underlying transport investment choices, will strongly
problems of coordination, path dependence, and influence future greenhouse gas emissions and
interdependence. Public policy and planning are environmental sustainability. Scholars have proven
needed to get urban structures “right.” This imperative the impact of urban form on driving behaviors, modal
is especially challenging in Africa, where fragmented choices, transport-related energy consumption, and
urban development may already be locking cities into carbon dioxide emissions (Newman and Kenworthy
high-cost paths. And since the low expectations that 1989). African cities now enjoy a unique opportunity
come with high costs are self-fulfilling — expectations to avoid carbon-intensive urban transportation
affect investments, which in turn affect expectations trajectories. Getting these choices right the first
— cities that lack durable capital today may have an time — while urbanization is still in its early stages
even harder time financing its acquisition tomorrow. — is critical. Given the path dependence of urban
settlements, polluting now and cleaning up later is not
Even if developers expect an African city to grow, they
an option.
might not know where growth is likely to occur — a
type of coordination failure. One mechanism for In coordinating land use policies with infrastructure
overcoming such failures is a sunk investment made plans, it is finally important to consider risk from
by the government or a group of investors. Sunk natural hazards. While 70 percent of high-income
investments can have long-run effects, sending a countries integrate land use with the management of
30
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Overview | Opening the doors
natural-hazard risk, only about 15 percent of low- and water supply, is essential (World Bank 2012b).
income countries do so (World Bank 2012a). Yet cities Swakopmund, Namibia, a city of 42,000 surrounded by
in these low-income countries are more vulnerable environmentally sensitive areas, limits development
to natural hazards, including the floods that are to zoned “townlands” and has protected watersheds
now so destructive in many parts of the world. with integrated environmental, sector, and land use
Coordinating land use planning with the management planning.
of natural resources, including water resources
Opening the doors

That African cities are crowded is apparent from the housing, commercial structures, or connective
ground — both in the growth of informal settlements, infrastructure. Such cities are not just difficult and
and in the traffic that snarls urban roads. That the costly to live in, but costly to do business in — they
same cities are disconnected can be seen from scatter firms, prevent labor market pooling, and limit
satellite images showing land use. And that these specialization across settlements. The urban economy
cities are costly appears in price and wage data, as is restricted to nontradable, as opposed to tradable,
interpreted by economic analysis. activity.
This report explains the high costs of living and So long as Africa’s cities are in evident disarray, with
doing business in African cities as consequences fragmented forms and dysfunctional markets, they will
of their inefficient urban form. Distortions in factor continue to signal low expectations and stay in this low
and product markets leave cities without adequate development trap. At best, they will proceed farther
BOX 5
Building dense, connected, and efficient

cities: Two models of success
One model of successful urbanization is the high-speed rail — the bullet trains that have shrunk
Republic of Korea, where urban planning and Korea into a half-day travel zone.
land management institutions evolved to meet
A different sort of success story is that of Bangkok,
challenges at each stage of urbanization. Land
where less restricted land markets were able to adapt
development programs were established first,
to growing demographic and economic pressures and
followed by a land use regulation system. Then came
climbing costs. Over 1974-88, when growth was rapid
comprehensive urban planning, with guidelines for
and land and housing construction prices on the rise,
mandatory 20-year visions, zoning decisions, and
developers responded by increasing the density of
planning facilities. Downtown development projects
their housing projects. Average units per hectare rose
systematically adhered to phased scenarios under the
from 35 to 56. Multifamily housing increased from
comprehensive plans. Later, in the 1990s and 2000s,

less than 2 percent of new construction in 1986 to 43
Korea integrated separate laws regulating urban and
percent in 1990. With these shifts, developers were
nonurban areas, and in 2000 it instituted metropolitan
able to profit through the construction of affordable
city-regional planning (between the city and the
housing (Dowall 1992). Over 1986-90, almost half the
county or province). Meanwhile, the government
growth in Bangkok housing stock was from private
initiated large-scale apartment construction projects
development, while informally produced housing
that solved Korea’s most serious urban housing
composed a mere 3 percent of the total. In other
problems. Multiple transport modes were developed.
cities with highly constrained land markets, informally
Road projects over time have included urban
produced housing composed 20-80 percent of the
highways and pavement projects as well as a network
total (Dowall 1998).
of expressways. And the nation’s rail network includes
urban subway lines alongside traditional railroads and
31
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along the inefficient path of slow and inadequate land Annex:

development and infrastructure investment.
Fortunately, the need for more efficient cities is easy
Coverage of African
to see and impossible to ignore. Africa’s urban areas cities used in the
are quickly gaining in population: Home to 472 million
people now, they will be twice as large in 25 years. The
analysis
most populous cities are growing as fast as 4 percent
annually. Productive jobs, affordable housing, and
effective infrastructure will be urgently needed for
residents and newcomers alike.
In urgency lies opportunity. Leaders can still set their
cities onto more efficient development paths if they Cities used in the analysis
act swiftly — and if they can resist flashy projects,
steadfastly pursuing two main goals in order of Small cities
priority: (<800,000)
• First, formalize land markets, clarify property rights, Country City
and institute effective urban planning. Benin Abomey-Calavi
Burundi Bujumbura
• Second, make early and coordinated infrastructure
CAR Bangui
investments that allow for interdependence among Côte d’Ivoire Bouake
sites, structures, and basic services. Namibia Windhoek
Nigeria Maiduguri
A third goal is to improve urban transport and
Nigeria Nnewi
additional services. But this must not come ahead of Somalia Hargeysa
the two goals listed above — nor can it be achieved South Africa Soshanguve
unless those are met first. Sudan Nyala
Zimbabwe Bulawayo
Models of success from other regions may offer
illuminating analogies and contrasts with African cities,
while exemplifying what leaders can achieve through Intermediate cities
coordinated and sustained action (box 5). Of course, (800,000-2 million)
political economy must be considered in designing
Angola Huambo
and implementing policies. Leaders need to foresee
Congo Pointe-Noire
policy impacts (opportunities, winners, and losers) and DRC Bukavu
anticipate challenges to enforcement. DRC Kananga
DRC Kisangani
City growth will be central to development in Africa, Eritrea Asmara
as it has been elsewhere. By starting with reforms to Guinea Conakry
land markets and regulations, then making early and Kenya Mombasa
coordinated infrastructure investments, governments Liberia Monrovia
can take control of urbanization and build more Malawi Blantyre-Limbe
connected and productive African cities: cities that Malawi Lilongwe
Mauritania Nouakchott
open their doors to the world.
Mozambique Maputo
Niger Niamey
Nigeria Benin City
Nigeria Ilorin
Nigeria Jos
Nigeria Kaduna
Nigeria Uyo
Rwanda Kigali
Sierra Leone Freetown
Tanzania Mwanza
Togo Lomé
Uganda Kampala
Zimbabwe Harare
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Overview | Opening the doors
Spain Turkey
Tunisia
Morocco Syria Iraq
Algeria Libya Egypt

Saudi Arabia
Western
Sahara
Cabo Mauritania Mali Niger Chad Sudan

Verde
Eritrea Yemen
Senegal
The Gambia
Burkina
Guinea- Faso Djibouti
Bissau Guinea
Benin Somalia
Sierra Leone Côte Togo Nigeria
D’Ivoire Ghana Central African South
Sudan Ethiopia
Liberia Republic
Cameroon
Equatorial Guinea
Uganda
Large cities Sao Tome and Principe Kenya
Gabon Democratic
(>2 million) Republic of Rwanda
Angola Luanda Congo Congo
Burundi
Burkina Faso Ouagadougou
Seychelles
Cameroon Douala
Cameroon Yaoundé Tanzania
Côte d’Ivoire Abidjan
DRC Lubumbashi
DRC Mbuji-Mayi
Ethiopia Addis Ababa Angola Comoros
Gambia Sukuta Malawi
Ghana Accra
Ghana Kumasi Zambia Madagascar
Kenya Nairobi
Madagascar Antananarivo
Mali Bamako
Nigeria Abuja Zimbabwe Mauritius
Nigeria Ibadan Namibia Mozambique
Nigeria Kano
Nigeria Lagos Botswana
Nigeria Port Harcourt
Senegal Dakar
Senegal Touba Swaziland
Somalia Muqdisho (Mogadishu)
South Africa Cape Town
Lesotho
South Africa Durban
South Africa Johannesburg
South Africa
South Africa Pretoria
Tanzania Dar es Salaam
Zambia Lusaka
33
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Part 1
Crowded and Disconnected
African Cities
Chapter 1
Crowded with people, not dense with capital
Crowded with people
Not dense with physical capital
Not dense with human capital
Chapter 2
Disconnected land, people and jobs
Disconnected land
People not connected to people:
High fragmentation, low exposure,
little potential for interaction
People not connected to jobs
35
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When well managed, city growth can spur economic Successful cities are economically dense and
growth and productivity in two ways. First, it can boost connected. Africa’s cities are crowded but not
incentives for investment through higher economic dense, and they are disconnected. Investments in
density and proximity, which support clusters of firms infrastructure, industrial and commercial structures,
and increase connectivity among workers. Second, and affordable formal housing have not kept pace
it can make cities more livable for poor and middle- with the concentration of people. Congestion and its
class residents, by providing affordable services, costs overwhelm the benefits of urban concentration.
amenities, and housing. Through both channels, a Cities have developed as collections of small and
successfully developed city offers firms the incentives fragmented neighborhoods. The lack of connectivity,
of agglomeration and high returns on investment. particularly the absence of reliable transportation,
limits job opportunities for workers and prevents
Africa’s cities share neither of these attributes. They
firms from reaping scale and agglomeration benefits.
are predominantly local, lacking global or even
Chapters 1 and 2 examine each of these themes,
regional reach. They are unsuccessful because they
describing the symptoms of Africa’s unsustainable
have developed along a different trajectory — one that
urban development path.
imposes heavy costs on residents and firms and locks
them in a low-growth poverty trap.
Africa is far poorer than other developing
regions were when they reached similar levels of
urbanization. Urbanizing while poor means that
cities lack the means to invest in physical capital,
such as infrastructure. They have fewer resources for
public services, such as schooling, and lack human
capital, which hinders efficient administration and
improvement of existing institutions.
36
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Chapter 1
Crowded with people,
not dense with capital
Urbanization benefits people and businesses
by increasing economic density. A worker in an
economically dense area can commute more easily
and consume a broader range of products. Firms
clustered in cities can access a wider market of
inputs and buyers. Scale economies reduce firms’
production costs — in turn benefiting consumers.
37
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Population density is indeed strongly correlated with and other capital investments are lacking, especially
indicators of livability — in Sub-Saharan Africa as outside the city center. Urban building stocks have low
elsewhere (Gollin, Kirchberger, and Lagakos 2016). Yet replacement values. Across Africa, housing investment
Africa’s cities are not economically dense or efficient. lags urbanization by nine years (Dasgupta, Lall, and
They are crowded and unlivable. Most urban residents Lozano-Gracia 2014).
are packed into low-rise, informal settlements without
The population density of African cities is similar to
adequate infrastructure or access to basic services.
that of many cities elsewhere. What is holding these
Two of every three people in Lagos, Nigeria dwell
cities back is their low economic density — the lack
in slums (World Bank 2015b). Thus, even though
of thriving urban markets that depend on adequate
households in densely populated areas of Africa are
infrastructure and conveniently connected clusters
better supplied with services than rural households,
of residential and commercial structures. A dearth
the mere fact of higher population density does not
of capital and capital investment keeps Africa’s cities
imply a livable environment.
inefficient and less productive than they should be,
Why do a majority of people in Africa’s cities live limiting firms and workers to the production of goods
in slums? The immediate explanation is that the and services for small and local hinterland markets
urbanization of people has not been accompanied by locking them out of much more lucrative regional and
the urbanization of capital. Housing, infrastructure, international markets.
Crowded with people

Many of Africa’s urban workers live in crowded Slums: Workers’ only option when urban
quarters near the city center. In Dar es Salaam,
Tanzania, 28 percent of residents are living at least economic density is low but highly
three to a room (World Bank 2015c); in Abidjan, Côte concentrated
d’Ivoire, the figure is 50 percent (World Bank 2016). The crowdedness of African cities is most apparent in
The reason for this crowding is that most people their slums. On average, 60 percent of Africa’s urban
must live near the downtown district or industrial population is packed into slums — a far larger share
zones if they hope to work. They cannot conveniently than the average 34 percent seen in other developing
commute from outlying areas, because little or no countries (United Nations 2015).
affordable transportation is available. During 1960–72, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin
Africa’s cities also suffer from a lack of adequate America had similar incidences of slums and squatter
formal housing around the urban core. Consequently, settlements (table 1.1). More recently, slum levels in
people settle in relatively central informal settlements Sub-Saharan Africa (62 percent) and Latin America
that are densely populated, ill served by urban (24 percent) diverged. South Asia’s levels (35 percent)
infrastructure, and, by many measures, unlivable. are similar to its historical levels, although some cities
Paradoxically, Africa’s cities are sparsely built and laid have experienced large increases in slum proportions.
out but feel crowded.
Table 1.1 Slum population as percentage of total urban population in selected cities, historically and in 2014
Share of city population Share of national population

Region/country City
living in slums living in slums in 2014
Sub-Saharan Africa
Cameroon Douala 80 (1970) 37.8
Yaoundé 90 (1970)
Côte d’Ivoire Abidjan 60 (1964) 56.0
Ethiopia Addis Ababa 90 (1970) 73.9
Ghana Accra 53 (1968) 37.9
Kenya Nairobi 33 (1970) 56.0
Mombasa 66 (1970)
38
47 PM
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
Voyant que le pouvoir réside entre les mains des Six Cents, et
non dans le Vice-Roi ou ailleurs, j’ai durant tout mon séjour
recherché l’ombre de ceux qui bavardent le plus et le plus
extravagamment. Ils mènent le vulgaire, et en reçoivent l’autorisation
de sa bonne volonté. C’est le désir de quelques-uns de ces hommes
— en fait, d’à peu près autant que ceux qui causèrent la pourriture
de l’armée britannique — que nos terres et peuples devraient
ressembler exactement à ceux des Anglais d’aujourd’hui même.
Puisse Dieu, le Contempteur de la Folie, nous en préserver ! Moi-
même, je passe parmi eux pour un phénomène, et de nous et des
nôtres ils ne savent rien, les uns m’appelant Hindou et d’autres
Radjpout, et usant à mon égard, par ignorance, de propos
d’esclaves et d’expressions de grand irrespect. Quelques-uns
d’entre eux sont bien nés, mais la plupart sont de basse naissance,
ont la peau rude, agitent leurs bras, parlent fort, manquent de
dignité, ont la bouche relâchée, le regard furtif, et comme je l’ai déjà
dit, se laissent mener par le vent d’une robe de femme.
Voici maintenant une histoire qui ne date que de deux jours. Il y
avait une société à un repas, et une femme à la voix perçante me
parla, en présence des hommes, des affaires de nos femmes. Son
ignorance faisait de chaque mot un outrage acéré. Me rappelant
cela, je me contins jusqu’au moment où elle en vint à édicter une
nouvelle loi pour la direction de nos zénanas [29] et de toutes celles
qui sont derrière les rideaux.
[29] Harems.
Alors moi : « As-tu jamais senti la vie frémir sous ton cœur ou
tenu un petit fils entre tes seins, ô très déshéritée ? » Là-dessus elle,
avec feu et l’œil hagard : « Non, car je suis une femme libre, et non
une bonne d’enfants. » Alors moi doucement : « Dieu te traitera avec
indulgence, ma sœur, car tu as eu une servitude plus pesante
qu’aucun esclave, et la moitié de la terre la plus abondante te reste
cachée. Les premiers dix ans de la vie d’un homme appartiennent à
sa mère, et du crépuscule à l’aurore la femme peut à coup sûr
commander à son mari. Est-ce une grande chose que de rester là
durant les heures de veille tandis que les hommes s’en vont au
dehors sans que tes mains les retiennent par la bride ? » Alors elle
s’étonna d’entendre un païen parler ainsi : c’est pourtant une femme
honorée parmi ces hommes et elle professe ouvertement n’avoir pas
de profession de foi dans la bouche. Lis ceci dans l’oreille du Rao
Sahib et demande-lui comment il en irait pour moi si je lui rapportais
une pareille femme pour son usage. Ce serait pis que cette fille
jaune du désert de Cutch qui, par simple divertissement, excitait les
filles à se battre, et qui souffleta le jeune prince sur la bouche. Te
souviens-tu ?
En vérité, la source principale du pouvoir est corrompue d’être
restée tranquille longtemps. Ces hommes et ces femmes voudraient
faire de l’Inde entière un gâteau de bouse et aspireraient à laisser
dessus la trace de leurs doigts. Et ils ont le pouvoir et la gestion des
finances, et c’est pourquoi je suis si détaillé dans ma description. Ils
ont autorité sur l’Inde entière. Ce dont ils parlent, ils n’y comprennent
rien, car l’âme d’un homme de basse naissance est limitée à son
champ et il ne saisit pas la liaison des affaires d’un pôle à l’autre. Ils
se vantent ouvertement que le Vice-Roi et les autres sont leurs
serviteurs. Quand les maîtres sont fous, que feront les serviteurs ?
Les uns prétendent que toute guerre est un péché, et la mort la
plus grande menace devant Dieu. D’autres déclarent avec le
Prophète qu’il est mal de boire, enseignement auquel leurs rues
apportent un évident témoignage ; et il en est d’autres,
particulièrement de basse naissance, qui estiment que toute
domination est perverse et la souveraineté de l’épée maudite. Ceux-
ci me firent des protestations, s’excusant pour ainsi dire que les
gens de leur race fussent en possession de l’Hindoustan, et
espérant qu’un jour ils en partiraient. Connaissant bien la race
d’hommes blancs qu’il y a dans nos frontières, j’aurais volontiers ri,
mais m’en abstins, me rappelant que ces discoureurs avaient du
pouvoir dans l’opération de compter les têtes. D’autres encore
déclament bien haut contre les impositions de la partie de
l’Hindoustan soumise à la loi du Sahib. A ceci j’acquiesce, me
rappelant la générosité annuelle du Rao Sahib lorsque les turbans
des soldats circulent parmi les blés flétris, et que les bracelets des
femmes vont chez le fondeur. Mais je ne suis pas un bon discoureur.
C’est là le devoir des gars du Bengale… ces ânes montagnards au
braiment oriental… Mahrattes de Pouna, et autres semblables.
Ceux-ci, se trouvant parmi des sots, se font passer pour des fils de
personnages, alors que, élevés par charité, ils sont les rejetons de
marchands de grains, de corroyeurs, de vendeurs de bouteilles et de
prêteurs d’argent, comme tu sais. Or, nous autres de Jagesur ne
devons rien, en dehors de l’amitié, aux Anglais qui nous ont conquis
par l’épée et, nous ayant conquis, nous laissent libres, assurant pour
toujours la succession du Rao Sahib. Mais ces gens de basse
naissance qui ont acquis leur savoir grâce à la générosité du
gouvernement, poussés par l’appât du gain se vêtent de costumes
anglais, abjurent la foi de leurs pères, répandent des bruits
contraires au gouvernement, et sont en conséquence très chers à
certains des Six Cents. J’ai entendu ce bétail parler en princes et en
meneurs de peuples, et j’ai ri, mais pas tout à fait.
Il arriva une fois que le fils de quelque marchand de grain, attiré
et parlant à la façon des Anglais, s’assit à table à côté de moi. A
chaque bouchée il commettait un parjure à l’encontre du sel qu’il
mangeait : hommes et femmes l’applaudissaient. Après avoir, par
d’habiles travestissements, glorifié l’oppression et inventé des griefs
inédits, tout en reniant ses dieux à ventre en tonneau, il demanda au
nom de son peuple le gouvernement de tout notre pays et, se
tournant vers moi, me posa la main sur l’épaule et dit : « Voici
quelqu’un qui est avec nous, bien qu’il professe une autre religion : il
confirmera mes paroles. » Cela il le proféra en anglais, et m’exhiba
pour ainsi dire à la société. Gardant une mine souriante, je lui
répondis dans notre langue à nous : « Retire ta main, homme sans
père, ou sinon la folie de ces gens ne te sauvera pas, et mon silence
ne sauvegardera pas ta réputation. Recule-toi, bétail. » Et dans leur
langage je repris : « Il dit vrai. Quand la faveur et la sagesse des
Anglais nous accordera une part encore un peu plus grande dans le
fardeau et la récompense, les Musulmans s’entendront avec les
Hindous. » Lui seul comprit ce qu’il y avait dans mon cœur. Je fus
généreux envers lui parce qu’il accomplissait nos vœux ; mais
souviens-toi que son père est un certain Durga Charan Laha, à
Calcutta. Pose ta main sur son épaule à lui, si jamais le hasard te
l’envoie. Il n’est pas bon que des vendeurs de bouteilles et des
commissaires-priseurs portent la main sur des fils de princes. Je me
promène parfois en public avec cet homme afin que tout ce monde
sache qu’Hindou et Musulman ne sont qu’un, mais quand nous
arrivons dans les rues moins fréquentées je lui ordonne de marcher
derrière moi, ce qui est pour lui un honneur suffisant.
Et pourquoi ai-je mangé de la poussière ?
Ainsi, mon frère, semble-t-il à mon cœur, qui s’est presque brisé
en assistant à ces choses. Les Bengalis et les gars élevés par
charité savent bien que le pouvoir de gouverner du Sahib ne lui vient
ni du Vice-Roi ni du chef de l’armée, mais des mains des Six Cents
de cette ville, et en particulier de ceux qui parlent le plus. Chaque
année donc ils s’adresseront de plus en plus à cette protection, et
agissant sur la chlorose de la terre, selon leur coutume invariable, ils
feront en sorte à la fin, grâce à l’intervention perpétuellement
inspirée aux Six Cents, que la main du gouvernement de l’Inde
deviendra inefficace, en sorte qu’aucune mesure ni ordre ne puisse
être exécuté jusqu’au bout sans clameur et objection de leur part ;
car tel est le plaisir des Anglais à cette heure. Ai-je excédé les
bornes du possible ? Non. Tu dois même avoir appris que l’un des
Six Cents, n’ayant ni savoir ni crainte ni respect devant les yeux, a
fait par jeu un nouveau plan écrit touchant le gouvernement du
Bengale et le montre ouvertement à tous, tel un roi qui lirait sa
proclamation de couronnement. Et cet homme, se mêlant des
affaires d’État, parle dans le Conseil pour un ramassis de
corroyeurs, de faiseurs de bottes et de harnais, et se vante
ouvertement de n’avoir pas de Dieu. Un ministre quelconque de
l’Impératrice, l’Impératrice elle-même, le Vice-Roi ou quelque autre,
ont-ils élevé la voix contre cet homme-cuir ? Son pouvoir n’est-il
donc pas à rechercher avec celui des autres qui pensent comme
lui ? Tu vas en juger.
Le télégraphe est le serviteur des Six Cents, et tous les sahibs de
l’Inde, sans en excepter un, sont les serviteurs du télégraphe.
Chaque année aussi, tu le sais, les gens élevés par charité vont tenir
ce qu’ils appellent leur Congrès, d’abord en un lieu puis en un autre,
excitant dans l’Hindoustan des bruits, conformément au bavardage
de la populace d’ici, et réclamant pour eux, à l’instar des Six Cents,
la direction des finances. Et ils feront retomber chaque détail et lettre
sur la tête des gouverneurs et des lieutenants-gouverneurs, et de
quiconque détient l’autorité, et la jetteront à grands cris aux pieds
des Six Cents d’ici ; et certains de ces confondeurs de mots et les
femmes stériles acquiesceront à leurs demandes, et d’autres se
lasseront de les contredire. Ainsi une nouvelle confusion sera jetée
dans les conseils de l’Impératrice pendant même que l’île ici proche
est aidée et soutenue dans la guerre sourde dont j’ai parlé. Alors
chaque année, comme ils ont commencé à le faire, et comme nous
l’avons vu, les hommes de basse naissance des Six Cents désireux
d’honneurs s’embarqueront pour notre pays, et, y restant un peu de
temps, amasseront autour d’eux et feront les flatteurs devant les
gens élevés par charité, et ceux-ci en partant d’auprès d’eux ne
manqueront pas d’informer les paysans, et les guerriers pour qui il
n’est pas d’emploi, qu’il y a un changement proche, et qu’on vient à
leur secours d’au delà des mers. Cette rumeur ne s’amoindrira pas
en se répandant. Et, surtout, le Congrès n’étant pas sous l’œil des
Six Cents — lesquels, bien qu’ils fomentent la discorde et la mort,
affectent un grand respect de la loi qui n’est pas une loi — va, dans
sa marche oblique, débiter aux paysans des paroles troublantes,
parlant, comme il l’a déjà fait, de diminuer les impôts, et permettant
une nouvelle constitution. Cela est à notre avantage, mais la fleur du
danger réside dans la graine de celui-ci. Tu sais quel mal une
rumeur peut faire ; bien que dans l’Année Noire où toi et moi étions
jeunes, notre fidélité aux Anglais ait procuré du bénéfice au Jagesur
et élargi nos frontières, car le gouvernement nous a donné du
territoire des deux côtés. Du Congrès lui-même rien n’est à craindre
que dix miliciens ne pourraient écarter ; mais si ses paroles troublent
trop tôt les esprits de ceux qui attendent ou des princes dans
l’oisiveté, une flamme peut naître avant le temps, et comme il y a
maintenant beaucoup de mains blanches pour l’étouffer, tout
reviendra à son état premier. Si la flamme est tenue cachée, nous
n’avons rien à craindre, parce que, suant et pantelant, et l’un foulant
l’autre aux pieds, les blancs d’ici creusent leurs propres tombes. La
main du Vice-Roi sera liée, les cœurs des sahibs seront abattus, et
tous les yeux se tourneront vers l’Angleterre en dépit de tous les
ordres. Jusque-là, notant le compte sur la poignée de l’épée, jusqu’à
l’heure où l’on pourra régler par le fer, il est de votre rôle de
seconder les Bengalis et de leur montrer beaucoup de bon vouloir,
afin qu’ils puissent acquérir la direction des finances et les fonctions.
Il nous faut même écrire en Angleterre que nous sommes du même
sang que les gens d’école. L’attente ne sera pas longue ; non, par
ma tête, elle ne sera pas longue ! Ces gens-ci sont pareils au grand
roi Ferisht, lequel, rongé par les gales d’une longue oisiveté, arracha
sa couronne et dansa nu parmi les amas de bouse. Mais moi je n’ai
pas oublié le but profitable de ce conte. Le vizir le mit sur un cheval
et le conduisit à la bataille. Bientôt il recouvra la santé et il fit graver
sur sa couronne :
Bien que le roi m’ait rejetée

Malgré cela, par Dieu, je suis revenue à lui et il a ajouté à mon
éclat
Deux beaux rubis (Balkh et Iran).
Si ces gens-ci étaient purgés et saignés par la bataille, leur

maladie s’en irait peut-être et leurs yeux s’ouvriraient aux nécessités
des choses. Mais ils sont maintenant très avancés dans la
corruption. Même l’étalon, trop longtemps entravé, oublie l’art de
combattre ; et ces hommes sont des mulets. Je ne mens pas quand
je dis qu’à moins qu’ils ne soient saignés et ne reçoivent la leçon du
fouet, ils prêteront l’oreille et obéiront à tout ce qui est dit par le
Congrès et par les hommes noirs d’ici, qui espèrent convertir notre
pays en leur propre géhenne désordonnée. Car les hommes des Six
Cents, étant pour la plupart de basse naissance et inaccoutumés à
l’autorité, ont un grand désir d’exercer le pouvoir, en étendant leurs
bras vers le soleil et la lune et en criant très fort afin d’entendre
l’écho de leurs voix, chacun disant quelque nouveauté étrange, et
répartissant les biens et l’honneur d’autrui parmi les rapaces, dans le
but d’obtenir la faveur du vulgaire. Et tout cela est à notre avantage.
Écris donc, afin qu’ils les lisent, des paroles de gratitude et
d’amour de la loi. Moi-même, à mon retour, je montrerai comment il
faut dresser le plat pour séduire le goût d’ici ; car c’est ici que nous
devons nous adresser. Fais fonder en Jagesur un journal, et emplis-
le de traductions de leurs journaux. Pour trente roupies par mois on
peut faire venir de Calcutta un homme élevé par charité, et s’il écrit
en gurmukhi notre peuple ne saura pas le lire. Crée aussi des
conseils autres que les panchayats de chefs, village par village et
région par région, les instruisant par avance de ce qu’ils diront
conformément à l’ordre du Rao. Imprime toutes ces choses en
anglais dans un livre et envoie-le à cette ville-ci, et à chacun des Six
Cents. Ordonne à l’homme élevé par charité d’écrire en tête de tout,
que Jagesur progresse vite dans la civilisation anglaise. Si tu
pressures le temple hindou de Theegkot, et qu’il soit mûr, remets la
taxe de capitation, et voire même la taxe de mariage, avec grande
publicité. Mais par-dessus toutes choses tiens les troupes prêtes, et
bien payées, dussions-nous glaner le chaume avec le froment et
restreindre les femmes du Rao. Tout doit se faire en douceur. Toi,
proteste de ton amour en toutes choses pour la voix du vulgaire, et
affecte de mépriser les troupes. Cela sera pris pour un témoignage,
dans ce pays-ci. Il faut que le commandement des troupes
m’appartienne. Veille à ce que l’esprit de Bahadur Shah s’en aille à
la dérive sur le vin, mais ne l’envoie pas à Dieu. Je suis vieux, mais
je vivrai peut-être encore assez pour le régenter.
A moins que ce peuple ne soit saigné et ne recouvre de la force,
nous surveillerons la montée du flot, et quand nous verrons que
l’ombre de leur main s’est presque retirée de l’Hindoustan, il nous
faudra donner ordre aux Bengalis de demander le rappel du restant
ou répandre le mécontentement à cette fin. Il nous faut avoir soin de
ne pas blesser la vie des Anglais, ni l’honneur de leurs femmes, car
en ce cas six fois les Six Cents d’ici ne pourraient retenir ceux qui
restent de faire nager la terre dans le sang. Il nous faut prendre soin
qu’ils ne soient pas bousculés par les Bengalis, mais honorablement
escortés, tant que la terre sera courbée sous la menace de l’épée s’il
tombe un cheveu de leurs têtes. Ainsi nous acquerrons une bonne
réputation, car pourvu que la révolte n’entraîne pas d’effusion de
sang, comme il s’est récemment produit dans un pays lointain, les
Anglais, au mépris de l’honneur, l’appellent d’un nouveau nom :
même quelqu’un qui a été ministre de l’Impératrice mais qui est
maintenant en guerre avec la loi, la loue publiquement en présence
du vulgaire. Tant ils ont changé depuis les temps de Nikhal
Seyn [30] ! Et alors, si tout va bien et si les sahibs, à force de
rebuffades et d’humiliations ayant perdu tout courage, se voient eux-
mêmes abandonnés des leurs — car ce peuple a déjà laissé ses
plus grands hommes mourir sur le sable aride par suite de retards et
par crainte de la dépense — nous pourrons aller de l’avant. Ces
gens sont menés par les noms. Il faut donc donner un nouveau nom
à la constitution de l’Hindoustan (et cela c’est affaire à régler par les
Bengalis entre eux) et il y aura maints écrits et serments d’amour,
tels que la petite île d’outre-mer en fait quand elle s’apprête à lutter
plus âprement ; et lorsque le restant aura diminué, l’heure sera
venue où nous devrons frapper si fort que l’épée ne soit plus jamais
en question.
[30] Nicholson, Anglais d’une certaine notoriété, jadis
dans l’Inde. (Note de Kipling.)
Par la grâce de Dieu et la vigilance des sahibs depuis de

nombreuses années, l’Hindoustan contient beaucoup de butin, que
nous ne pouvons en aucune façon dévorer promptement. Il y aura à
notre disposition le mécanisme de l’administration, car les Bengalis
continueront à faire notre besogne, et devront nous rendre compte
des impôts, et apprendre leur place dans l’ordre des choses. Si les
rois hindous de l’ouest doivent intervenir dans le partage de cette
dépouille avant que nous ne l’ayons entièrement ramassée, tu le
sais mieux que moi ; mais sois certain que, alors, de robustes mains
s’en prendront à leurs trônes, et il se peut que les jours du roi de
Delhi reviennent, à la condition que nous, courbant nos volontés,
affections un respect convenable pour les apparences extérieures et
les noms. Tu te rappelles ce vieux poème :
Si tu ne l’avais pas appelé Amour, j’aurais dit que c’était une

épée nue.
Mais puisque tu as parlé, je te crois… et je meurs.
J’ai l’espoir qu’il restera dans notre pays quelques sahibs non
désireux de regagner l’Angleterre. Ceux-ci, nous devons les choyer
et les protéger, afin que leur adresse et leur ruse nous permette de
maintenir et de sauvegarder l’unité en temps de guerre. Les rois
hindous n’oseront jamais introduire un sahib au sein de leurs
conseils. Je répète que si nous de la Foi avons confiance en eux,
nous foulerons aux pieds nos ennemis.
Tout ceci est-il un songe pour toi, renard gris de la portée de ma
mère ? Je t’ai écrit ce que j’ai vu et entendu, mais de la même argile
deux hommes ne façonneront jamais assiettes semblables, pas plus
qu’ils ne tireront mêmes conclusions des mêmes faits. Une fois de
plus, il y a une chlorose sur tous les gens de ce pays. Dès à présent
ils mangent de la poussière pour satisfaire leurs envies. La
pondération et l’honneur ont abandonné leurs conseils, et le couteau
de la dissension a fait tomber sur leurs têtes la moustiquaire de la
confusion. L’Impératrice est vieille. On parle irrespectueusement
d’elle et des siens dans la rue. On méprise l’épée et on croit que la
langue et la plume dirigent tout. Leur ignorance et leur crédulité
dépassent en grandeur la sagesse de Salomon, fils de David. J’ai vu
toutes ces choses, moi qu’ils considèrent comme une bête sauvage
et un phénomène. Par Dieu Illuminateur de l’Intelligence, si les
sahibs de l’Inde pouvaient produire des fils qui vivent assez
longtemps pour fonder leurs maisons, j’irais presque jeter mon épée
aux pieds du Vice-Roi, en disant : « Combattons ici à nous deux pour
un royaume, le tien et le mien, sans nous soucier des cancans
d’outre-mer. Écris aux Anglais une lettre disant que nous les aimons,
mais que nous voulons nous séparer de leur camp et tout nettoyer
sous une nouvelle couronne. » Mais dans notre pays les sahibs
meurent à la troisième génération, et il se peut que je fasse des
rêves. Pas tout à fait cependant. Jusqu’à ce qu’un éclatant fléau
d’acier et de carnage, le poids des fardeaux, la crainte pour sa vie,
et la fureur brûlante de l’outrage — car la pestilence les
démoraliserait, si les yeux assez habitués aux hommes voient clair
— accable ce peuple, notre chemin est sûr. Ils sont malades. La
Source du Pouvoir est un ruisseau que tous peuvent souiller : et les
voix des hommes sont couvertes par les cris des mulets et les
hennissements des juments stériles. Si l’adversité les rend sages,
alors, mon frère, frappe avec et pour eux, et plus tard, quand toi et
moi serons morts, et que la maladie se développera de nouveau (les
jeunes hommes élevés à l’école de la crainte et du tremblement et
de la confusion des mots ont encore à vivre leur temps prescrit),
ceux qui ont combattu aux côtés des Anglais pourront demander et
recevoir ce qu’ils voudront. A présent efforce-toi en secret de
troubler, de retarder, d’éluder, et de rendre inefficace. Dans ces
choses six douzaines des Six Cents sont nos vrais alliés.
Maintenant la plume et l’encre et la main me défaillent à la fois,
comme te défailliront les yeux à cette lecture. Fais connaître à ceux
de ma maison que je reviendrai bientôt, mais laisse-leur ignorer
l’heure. Des lettres anonymes me sont parvenues concernant mon
honneur. L’honneur de ma maison est le tien. Si elles sont, comme je
le crois, l’œuvre d’un valet renvoyé, Futteh Lal, qui courait à la
queue de mon étalon katthiawar couleur lie de vin, son village est au
delà de Manglôt ; veille à ce que sa langue cesse de s’exercer sur
les noms de celles qui sont miennes. S’il en est autrement, mets une
garde sur ma maison jusqu’à mon retour, et veille spécialement à ce
que nuls vendeurs de joaillerie, astrologues ou entremetteurs n’aient
accès aux appartements des femmes. Nous nous élevons par nos
esclaves, et par nos esclaves nous tombons, comme il est dit. A tous
ceux qui sont de ma connaissance j’apporte des présents selon
qu’ils en sont dignes. J’ai parlé deux fois du présent que je voudrais
faire donner à Bahadur Shah.
La bénédiction de Dieu et de son Prophète soit sur toi et les tiens
jusqu’à la fin qui est prescrite. Donne-moi aussi du bonheur en
m’informant de l’état de ta santé. Je mets ma tête aux pieds du Rao
Sahib ; mon épée est à son côté gauche, un peu plus haut que mon
cœur.
Suit mon sceau.
JUDSON ET L’EMPIRE
Fumée de gloire ! Le « don [31] » est libre de

nous attaquer,
Bien qu’il ait le cœur faible :
Il lui faut nous atteindre avant de nous
défaire…
Mais où sont les galions d’Espagne ?
Dobson.
[31] Terme de mépris, appliqué aux Espagnols et

Portugais, ainsi qu’à leurs cousins du Sud-Amérique.
Parmi les multiples beautés de l’état démocratique, figure un

talent quasi surhumain de se créer des ennuis avec les autres
nations et de trouver son honneur lésé dans la circonstance. Une
vraie démocratie professe un dédain énorme à l’égard de tous les
autres pays gouvernés par des rois, reines et empereurs, et connaît
peu leurs affaires intérieures, dont elle se soucie encore moins. Tout
ce qui l’intéresse, c’est sa propre dignité, qui est pour elle le roi, la
reine et le valet. Aussi, tôt ou tard, leurs différends internationaux
aboutissent chez le vulgaire sans dignité, qui lance par-dessus les
mers les basses injures de la rue, sans dignité elle non plus, afin de
venger leur neuve dignité. Il se peut que la guerre en résulte ou non ;
mais les chances ne sont pas en faveur de la paix.
Un avantage de vivre en un pays civilisé qui est réellement
gouverné, réside dans ce fait que tous les rois, reines et empereurs
du continent sont apparentés de près par le sang ou par le mariage ;
qu’ils forment, pour tout dire, une vaste famille.
Chez eux les esprits intelligents comprennent que ce qui paraît
être une injure préméditée n’est souvent dû qu’à la dyspepsie d’un
homme ou aux vapeurs d’une femme, et qu’il sied de la traiter
comme telle, et de s’expliquer tranquillement. De même, une
démonstration populaire, ayant à sa tête le roi et la cour, peut
signifier tout simplement que le peuple des susdits roi et cour leur
échappe pour le moment. Quand un cheval se met à ruer dans la
foule qui se presse à une porte, le cavalier ne saute pas à bas, mais
il tend derrière lui sa main ouverte, et les autres s’écartent. Il en va
ainsi pour les meneurs d’hommes. Dans l’ancien temps ils
guérissaient leur mauvaise humeur et celle de leurs peuples par le
feu et le carnage ; mais maintenant que le feu a acquis une si longue
portée et le carnage tant d’extension, ils agissent différemment ; et
peu de gens parmi leurs peuples soupçonnent combien ceux-ci
doivent d’existences et d’argent à ce que le jargon de l’heure appelle
« hochets » et « vanités ».
Il y avait une fois une petite puissance, le débris à demi ruiné
d’un empire jadis grand, qui perdit patience avec l’Angleterre, ce
Père Fouettard du monde entier, et se conduisit, de l’avis unanime,
très scandaleusement. Mais on ignore en général que cette
puissance soutint une bataille rangée avec l’Angleterre et remporta
une glorieuse victoire.
Les difficultés commencèrent chez les gens du peuple. Ils
avaient subi des malheurs nombreux, et cela soulage toujours
l’irritation privée de s’exhaler en vitupérations publiques. Leur orgueil
national avait été blessé profondément, et ils songeaient à leurs
gloires de jadis et aux temps où leurs flottes avaient pour la première
fois doublé le cap des Tempêtes : leurs journaux invoquaient
Camoens et les poussaient aux extravagances. C’était, paraît-il,
l’Angleterre, cette grossière, flatteuse, doucereuse et menteuse
Angleterre, qui entravait les progrès de leur expansion coloniale. Ils
supposèrent d’emblée que leur gouvernant était de connivence avec
l’Angleterre, et ils proclamèrent avec beaucoup de chaleur qu’ils
voulaient sur-le-champ se mettre en république et développer leurs
colonies comme il sied à un peuple libre. Ceci étant posé, la
populace lapida les consuls anglais, conspua les dames anglaises,
cerna les marins ivres de notre flotte qui se trouvaient dans ses
ports, les frappant à coups d’avirons, suscita les pires désagréments
pour les touristes, à la douane, et menaça de morts affreuses les
malheureux poitrinaires de Madère, cependant que les jeunes
officiers de l’armée buvaient des élixirs de fruits et entraient dans les
plus horrifiques conspirations contre leur monarque : le tout dans le
but de se mettre en république, Or, l’histoire des républiques sud-
américaines démontre que cela ne vaut rien pour les Européens du
sud d’être également des républicains. Ils glissent trop promptement
à la dictature militaire ; et quant à ce qui est de coller au mur les
gens et de les fusiller en série, cela peut s’effectuer beaucoup plus
économiquement et avec moins de répercussion sur le taux des
décès, par une monarchie stricte. Néanmoins les exploits de cette
puissance en tant que représentée par son peuple, étaient des plus
gênants. C’était le cheval qui rue dans la foule, et le cavalier
protestait sans doute qu’il ne pouvait l’empêcher. Ainsi le peuple
savourait toutes les beautés de la guerre sans aucun de ses
inconvénients, et les touristes qu’on avait lapidés au cours de leurs
pérégrinations regagnaient passivement l’Angleterre et déclaraient
au Times que l’organisation de la police laissait à désirer dans les
villes étrangères.
Telle était donc la situation au nord de l’équateur. Au sud, elle
était plus tendue, car là-bas les puissances étaient directement aux
prises : l’Angleterre, incapable de reculer parce qu’elle sentait
derrière elle la pression de ses fils aventureux et à cause des
agissements de lointains aventuriers qui, se refusant à lâcher prise,
conseillaient d’acheter la puissance rivale ; et celle-ci, qui manquait
d’hommes ou d’argent, figée dans la conviction que trois cents ans
d’esclavagisme et de mélange avec les indigènes les plus voisins, lui
conféraient le droit inaliénable de garder des esclaves et de procréer
des métis pour toute l’éternité. Ces gens-là n’avaient pas construit
de routes. Leurs villes s’effritaient entre leurs mains ; ils n’avaient
pas un commerce suffisant pour faire le fret d’un méchant cargo ; et
leur souveraineté sur l’intérieur ne s’étendait pas tout à fait à une
portée de fusil lorsque la tranquillité régnait. Ces raisons mêmes
augmentaient leur fureur, et les choses qu’ils disaient ou écrivaient
concernant les us et coutumes des Anglais, auraient fait courir aux
armes une nation plus jeune qui eût présenté une longue facture
sanglante pour son honneur outragé.
C’est alors que le destin envoya là-bas sur une canonnière à
deux hélices et à faible tirant d’eau, d’environ deux cent soixante-dix
tonnes de jauge et construite pour la défense des fleuves, le
lieutenant Harrison Edward Judson, destiné à recevoir par la suite le
nom de Judson-Pardieu. Son espèce de bâtiment avait tout à fait
l’air d’une plate en fer avec une allumette piquée au milieu ; il tirait
cinq pieds d’eau à peine, portait à l’avant un canon de quatre
pouces, dont le pointage dépendait du navire même, et à cause de
son roulis incessant, valait pour l’habitabilité trois fois moins qu’un
torpilleur. Quand Judson fut désigné pour prendre le commandement
de cet objet au cours de son petit voyage de six ou sept mille milles
dans le sud, et qu’il alla l’examiner dans le bassin, sa première
réflexion fut : « Pardieu, ce mât d’hune [32] a besoin d’être étayé de
l’avant ! » Ce mât d’hune était une baguette à peu près grosse
comme un portemanteau ; mais la plate en fer était le premier
bâtiment que commandât Judson, et celui-ci n’aurait pas échangé sa
position contre celle de second sur l’Anson ou le Howe.
[32] La prononciation nautique n’aspire pas l’h de
hune.
Il le fit donc naviguer, sous escorte, avec amour et tendresse,

jusqu’au Cap (où l’histoire du mât d’hune arriva en même temps que
lui), et il était si éperdument amoureux de son baquet vacillant que,
lorsqu’il alla se présenter à l’amiral de la station, celui-ci jugea
superflu de gâcher un nouvel homme sur ce bateau-là, et permit à
Judson de garder son peu enviable commandement.
L’amiral visita une fois la canonnière dans la baie Simon, et il la
trouva pitoyable, même pour une plate en fer, destinée uniquement à
la défense des fleuves et des ports. Malgré l’enduit de liège en
poudre qui revêtait sa peinture intérieure, son entrepont suait des
gouttes d’humidité visqueuse. Elle roulait comme une bouée dans la
longue houle du Cap ; son poste d’équipage était une niche à chien ;
la cabine de Judson était quasi sous la ligne de flottaison ;
impossible d’ouvrir un hublot ; et son compas, grâce à l’influence du
canon de quatre pouces, était un phénomène parmi les compas de
l’Amirauté eux-mêmes. Mais Judson-Pardieu rayonnait
d’enthousiasme. Il avait même réussi à communiquer la flamme de
sa passion à Davies, l’ouvrier mécanicien de seconde classe qui lui
servait de mécanicien principal. L’amiral, qui se souvenait de son
premier commandement personnel, et de certaine nuit humide où
l’amour-propre lui avait interdit de mollir une seule écoute, ce qui ne
manqua point de réduire en lambeaux son gréement, examina la
plate avec attention. Les « défenses » étaient revêtues entièrement
de tresse blanche, vraiment blanche ; le gros canon était verni avec
un produit meilleur que n’en fournissait l’amirauté ; les hausses de
rechange étaient rangées avec autant de soin que les
chronomètres ; les coussins d’emplanture pour espars de rechange,
au nombre de deux, étaient faits en bois de teck de Birmanie de
quatre pouces d’épaisseur, et ornés de têtes de dragons sculptées
(c’était là un souvenir des aventures de Judson-Pardieu avec la
brigade navale dans la guerre de Birmanie) ; l’ancre de bossoir était
vernie et non peinte ; et il y avait des cartes autres que celles
dressées à l’échelle de l’amirauté. L’amiral fut très satisfait, car il
aimait les chefs soigneux de leur navire… ceux qui ont un peu
d’argent à eux et consentent à le dépenser pour le bâtiment sous
leurs ordres. Judson le regardait avec espoir. Il n’était qu’un jeune
lieutenant de vaisseau de huit ans de grade. On pouvait le laisser six
mois dans la baie Simon, alors que tenir la mer avec son navire
faisait sa joie.
Son rêve secret était de rehausser le morne gris officiel de son
bâtiment par un listel de dorure, voire même une petite volute à son
avant épaté de bélandre.
— Il n’y a rien de tel qu’un premier commandement, pas vrai ? lui
dit l’amiral, qui lisait dans sa pensée. Mais il me semble que vous
avez là un drôle de compas. Vous devriez le faire régler.
— Ce n’est pas la peine, amiral, lui répondit Judson. Ce canon
affolerait le pôle nord lui-même. Mais… mais j’ai saisi le sens de la
plupart de ses anomalies.
— Voulez-vous avoir l’obligeance de hausser le pointage de
trente degrés, je vous prie ?
On releva le canon. L’aiguille libérée vira sur son pivot avec
allégresse, et l’amiral sifflota.
— Vous avez sans doute gardé le contact avec votre convoyeur ?
— Je l’ai vu deux fois entre Madère et ici, amiral, répondit en
rougissant Judson, tout honteux pour son vapeur… La canonnière
est… n’est pas encore bien au point, mais elle se réglera vite.
L’amiral quitta le bord, selon les rites du service, mais son
capitaine d’état-major dut bavarder auprès des autres officiers de
l’escadre mouillée dans la baie Simon, car durant plusieurs jours
tous, sans exception, firent des gorges chaudes de la plate.
— Qu’est-ce que vous pouvez bien en tirer, Judson ? demanda le
lieutenant de la Mongoose, une authentique canonnière à éperon,
peinte en blanc et munie de canons à tir rapide, au moment où, par
une chaude après-midi, Judson entrait dans la véranda supérieure
du petit club nautique dominant l’arsenal.
C’est dans ce club, où les capitaines vont et viennent, qu’on
entend tous les cancans des sept mers tout entières.
— Dix nœuds quatre, répondit Judson-Pardieu.
— Oh ! ça, c’était lors de ses essais. A présent elle est trop
plongée de l’avant. Je vous l’avais bien dit, qu’en étayant ce mât
d’hune vous la déséquilibreriez.
— Fichez-moi la paix avec mon mât d’hune, répliqua Judson, qui
commençait à trouver la plaisanterie fastidieuse.
— Oh ! mon chéri ! Écoutez donc Juddy, avec son mât d’hune !
Keate, avez-vous entendu parler du mât d’hune de la plate ? Vous
êtes prié de lui ficher la paix. Le commodore Judson est blessé dans
ses sentiments.
Keate était le lieutenant torpilleur du gros Voltigern, et il
dédaignait les petitesses.
— Son mât d’hune, dit-il tranquillement. Ah oui, oui, bien
entendu… Juddy, il y a un banc de mulets dans la baie, et je crains
qu’ils ne s’en prennent à vos hélices. Vous feriez bien de descendre
et de veiller à ce qu’ils ne vous emportent quelque chose.
— Je n’ai pas l’habitude de me laisser emporter des choses.
Vous voyez bien que, moi, je n’ai pas de lieutenant torpilleur à mon
bord, Dieu merci !
Sur le Voltigern, au cours de la semaine précédente, Keate avait
réussi à « louper » l’élingage d’un petit torpilleur, si bien que ce
bâtiment avait brisé les supports sur lesquels il reposait, et se
trouvait à cette heure en réparation dans l’arsenal, sous les fenêtres
du club.
— Attrapez, Keate ! N’importe, Juddy, vous voilà quand même
nommé pour trois ans gardien de l’arsenal : si vous êtes bien gentil,
un jour qu’il n’y aura pas trop de mer, vous m’emmènerez faire le
tour du port. Attendez un peu, commodore… Qu’est-ce que vous
prenez ? Un « vanderhum » pour « le cuisinier et le hardi capitaine,
et le second du brick Nancy et le fidèle maître d’équipage » (Juddy,
déposez cette queue de billard, ou sinon je vous mets aux arrêts
pour outrage envers le lieutenant d’un authentique navire)… « et le
midship et l’équipage du youyou du capitaine. »
A ce moment Judson l’avait acculé dans un coin et le pilonnait à
l’aide d’une queue de billard. Le secrétaire de l’amiral entra, et du
seuil vit la dispute.
— Ouf ! Juddy, je vous fais mes excuses. Délivrez-moi de ce…
hum… de ce mât d’hune ! Voici l’homme qui tient la corde de l’arc.
Je souhaiterais être un capitaine d’état-major au lieu d’un fichu
lieutenant. Sperril dort en bas toutes les nuits. C’est ce qui fait que
Sperril a le buste bien d’aplomb. Sperril, je vous défends de me
toucher ! Je suis en partance pour Zanzibar. Probable que je vais
l’annexer.
— Judson, l’amiral vous demande ! dit le capitaine d’état-major,
sans s’occuper du railleur de la Mongoose.
— Je vous le disais, que vous resteriez gardien de l’arsenal,
Juddy. Demain, une côte de bœuf frais et trois douzaines de
croquettes à la glace. A la glace, vous entendez, Juddy ?
Judson-Pardieu sortit avec le capitaine d’état-major.
— Dites donc, qu’est-ce que le vieux peut vouloir à Judson ?
demanda Keate, du comptoir.
— Sais pas. Quand même, Juddy est un rudement brave type. Je
voudrais bien l’avoir avec nous sur la Mongoose.
Le lieutenant de la Mongoose se laissa aller dans un fauteuil, et
pendant une heure lut les journaux arrivés par la malle. Puis il
aperçut Judson-Pardieu dans la rue et le héla. Les yeux très
brillants, Judson tenait la tête très haute, et il marchait allégrement. Il
ne restait plus dans le club que le lieutenant de la Mongoose.
— Judson, cela va être un beau combat, dit le jeune homme
après avoir entendu les nouvelles débitées par l’autre à mi-voix.
Vous aurez probablement à combattre, et pourtant je ne vois pas à
quoi pense le vieux, de…
— J’ai reçu l’ordre de ne livrer combat sous aucun prétexte, dit
Judson.
— Aller-regarder-voir ? Pas autre chose ? Quand partez-vous ?
— Ce soir si possible. Il faut que je m’en aille veiller aux
préparatifs. Dites donc, j’aurais besoin de quelques hommes pour la
journée.
— Tout ce qui est sur la Mongoose est à votre service. Voilà mon
youyou qui arrive là-bas. Mort, ivre ou endormi, je connais cette
côte, et vous aurez besoin d’en savoir le plus possible. Si nous
avions pu être ensemble, nous deux ! Venez avec moi.
Durant une heure entière, Judson resta enfermé dans la chambre
d’arrière de la Mongoose, à écouter et prendre des notes, penché
sur des cartes successives, et durant une heure le matelot de garde
à la porte n’entendit rien que des choses dans ce genre-ci : « Et puis
s’il y a gros temps il vous faudra vous réfugier ici. Ce courant est
ridiculement sous-évalué, et rappelez-vous qu’à cette époque de
l’année il porte à l’ouest. Leurs bateaux ne vont jamais au sud de
cette pointe, vous voyez ? Il est donc inutile de chercher après. » Et
ainsi de suite indéfiniment. Étendu de tout son long sur le coffre
voisin du trois-livres, Judson fumait en absorbant le tout.
Le lendemain il n’y avait plus de plate dans la baie Simon ; mais
un petit nuage de fumée au large du cap Hangklip montrait que
Davies, l’ouvrier mécanicien de deuxième classe, lui faisait donner
son maximum. A la résidence de l’amiral, le vieux maître d’équipage
retraité qui avait vu se succéder beaucoup d’amiraux, sortit son pot
de couleur et ses pinceaux et donna une nouvelle couche de beau
vert pomme tout pur aux deux gros boulets de canon qui ornaient,
un de chaque côté, la porte cochère de chez l’amiral. Il pressentait
qu’on était à la veille de grands événements.
Et la canonnière, construite, comme on l’a dit plus haut, pour la
défense des fleuves, rencontra la grande houle du large au cap
Agulhas : elle fut balayée de bout en bout, se cabra sur ses hélices
jumelles, et bondit d’une lame à l’autre avec toute la grâce d’une
vache dans une mare, tant et si bien que Davies en éprouva des
craintes pour la solidité de sa machine, et que les gars Krou [33] qui
composaient la majorité de l’équipage, en furent affreusement
indisposés. Elle longea une côte très mal pourvue de phares, passa
devant des baies qui n’en étaient pas, où de vilains écueils à tête
plate se dissimulaient presque au ras de l’eau, et il lui arriva un
grand nombre d’incidents extraordinaires, qui n’ont rien à voir avec
notre histoire, mais qui furent tous dûment consignés par Judson-
Pardieu sur son livre de bord.
[33] Krou : race indigène du Libéria.

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Overview Africa’s Cities: Part I Crowded and

The low development trap — Africa’s urban Crowded with people.....................................................38

Lack of money for transportation ............................ 74

Part II Africa’s Low Urban Urban planning institutions and land

Chapter 4 Page 101 Chapter 6 Page 139

Chapter 5 Page 117 Finance for lumpy urban infrastructure

Why African cities fail to attract investment:

Ineffectual property rights ...................................... 121

2.2 Estimated capital costs of building various types of

• Chapter 5 (Clarifying Property Rights and

The low development trap

Crowded, disconnected, and thus costly

Out of service, closed for business:

Springing cities from the low

Opening the doors

African cities are crowded,

Typical African cities share three features that constrain urban

Crowded, not economically dense — investments in infrastructure, industrial

Disconnected — cities have developed as collections of small and fragmented

In Harare, Zimbabwe, and Maputo, Mozambique,

The low development trap — Africa’s urban economies are limited

Share of firms in internationally traded and nontradable sectors,

The promise of cities: Agglomeration

between episodes of rapid urbanization and economic

In resource exporting countries, urbanization is linked only weakly to

Nonresource exporters Resource exporters

Share of manufacturing and services in GDP in 2010 (percent)

Source: Gollin, Jedwab, and Vollrath 2016.

Crowded, disconnected, and thus costly — Africa’s cities are

This figure rises to 50 percent in Abidjan

Low capital investment in Sub-Saharan African

BOX FIGURE 2.1

GDP $1,860 $1,806 Urbanization

Latin America Middle East East Asia Sub-Saharan

Connections among people as a function of population

Nairobi (population 4.265 million)

Pune (population 5.574 million)