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Understanding
BERRY/SANDERS
Although nearly all major social science departments offer gradu-
ate students training in multivariate quantitative methods, the
typical sequencing of topics often delays training in regression
analysis and other multivariate techniques until a student’s second
Multivariate Research
year. William D. Berry and Mitchell S. Sanders’s Understanding
Multivariate Research fills this gap with a concise introduction to
William D. Berry
Florida State University
Mitchell S. Sanders
Florida State University
t';e~rm
'~""-.-"""/ A Member of the Perseus Books Group
All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this pub-
lication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, elec-
tronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information stor-
age and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.
Published in 2000 in the United States of America by Westview Press, 5500 Cen-
tral Avenue, Boulder, Colorado 80301-2877, and in the United Kingdom by
Westview Press, 12 Hid's Copse Road, Cumnor Hill, Oxford OX2 9JJ
The paper used in this publication meets the requirements of the American
National Standard for Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials
Z39.48-1984.
Contents
1 Introduction 1
The Concept of Causation, 1
Experimen tal Research, 2
The Logic Underlying Regression Analysis,S
Some Necessary Math Background, 7
v
vi Contents
Standardized Coefficients, 41
Strong Relationships Among the Independent Variables:
The Problem of Multicollinearity, 43
Measuring the Fit of a Regression Model, 44
Statistical Significance, 45
Cross-Sectional vs. Time-Series Data, 49
6 Advanced Topics 63
Interaction vs. Nonlinearity, 63
Interactive Models, 64
Nonlinear Models, 68
Dichotomous Dependent Variables:
Probit and Logit, 72
Multi-equation Models: Simultaneous
Equation Models and Recursive Causal Models, 76
7 Conclusion 79
Glossary 81
References 83
Index 85
Tables and Figures
Tables
1.1 SynonYlTIS for independent and dependent variable 2
1.2 Observations for food intake and body weight 8
Figures
1.1 Data on food intake and body weight
for four individuals 8
1.2 Two variables that are completely unrelated 9
1.3 Two scatterplots with correlation
coefficients of +0.75 11
1.4 Two lines 13
vii
viii Tables and Figures
ix
x Preface for Teachers and Students
Willianz D. Berry
Mitchell S. Sanders
Acknowledgll1ents
W.D.B.
M.S.S.
xzu
Understanding
Multivariate Research
1
Introduction
I A large sample is necessary for this claim to hold) because the smaller a sam-
to the two groups-is the same as saying that all variables are held
nearly constant from one group to the other.) In other words, ran-
dom assignment of children to the control and experimental
groups eliminates all explanations other than Mirapill for the dif-
ference in disease incidence between the two groups. For instance,
a difference between the two groups in genetic susceptibility to
turkey pox is unlikely to be responsible for the difference in dis-
ease incidence, because randomness of assignment makes it likely
that varying degrees of genetic susceptibility are distributed
evenly between the two groups, and thus likely that the two
groups are similarly predisposed to getting turkey pox. Also, the
fact that both groups were given some pill-either Mirapill or a
placebo-allows us to reject the mere taking of sonle pill as a pos-
sible cause of the lower incidence of turkey pox in the experimen-
tal group.
X FOOD Y WEIGHT
•
Bob
Ted
150 Alice •
•
- - - - - - - - - - - - .. Carol
~ 100
:c:
~II
~ 50
o~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FIGURE 1.1 Data on food intake and body weight for four individuals
the graph in Figure 1.1, the lower left point representing Carol is
positioned 1,100 units out on the horizontal axis (denoting
FOOD) and 120 units up on the vertical axis (denoting
WEIGHT).
This type of graph is called a scatterplot (or son1etimes scatter
diagram or scattergram), because it plots the scattered X and Y val-
ues. The great advantage of the graphical presentation of these
data over the tabular format is that the graph allows us more easily
to observe the relationship between food intake and body weight.
Introduction 9
•
•
• •
•
•
• •
•
y
• •
• • •
•
I
• •• • I
I
•
Cases with very Cases with very
low scores on X high scores on X
x
FICURE 1.2 Two variables that are completely unrelated
~
25
. • •~
25
.
20
... 20
.. . ... · . . .. .
y 15 ~ # • -I Y 15
.,. -. .:...·
l~ r o
00
.
-I
-1
10
5 . ... .
. .,........ ~..". . ,.... .-
.. .. :.,...'......
~ . .:.,,...... #....
0' o
.. .. ..
-
-
L· •
,
.. ..
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 O.S 1.0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 O.S 1.0
X X
......
......
12 Introduction
Y 11lX + b,
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Part III
SIEGFRIED
PRELUDE
When Sieglinde ran into the woods with the pieces of the broken
sword, Nothung, she took shelter in a cave where a wicked old dwarf
lived alone. There a little boy was born. But Sieglinde had never
thoroughly recovered from the shock of her husband’s death. The
way through the woods had been difficult, and she had endured
great hardships; so one day she called the Dwarf to her and gave
him the broken sword, telling him to keep it for her son until he grew
old enough to have a weapon of his own, and she told the Dwarf that
she was Sieglinde, and that her husband had been Siegmund, the
Volsung, and she finally said that she wanted the child to be named
Siegfried; then she sank back and died. And so Siegfried, who was a
very little baby then, never, really, saw either his father or mother.
The only father he knew, as he grew older, was the Dwarf, who was
none other than Mime, Alberich’s half-brother. And he could not help
knowing that Mime was wicked and sly, though the Dwarf pretended
to love his foster-son, and tried to arouse some love in return.
Now, perhaps, you wonder, if Mime was so wicked, why he took care
of the boy. I will tell you.
Mime, like every one else, wanted the Rhinegold, and could not get
it, for Fafner, the Dragon, guarded it by night and day at Hate Hole.
And being as sly and evil-minded as the rest of the Nibelungs, he
had concocted a plot by which he thought he could obtain it. He
hoped Siegfried, when he grew older, would slay Fafner with the
sword Nothung, and win the Rhinegold. You see he hoped to
accomplish Fafner’s death through Siegfried, just as Wotan had
once tried to do through Siegmund. Only, after Siegfried had attained
the Gold, Mime hoped to be able to poison him and steal from him
the treasure.
But, to accomplish this, the broken sword must be mended, and this
Mime could not do. Its splintered edges baffled even him—clever
smith as he was. So he set to work forging other swords, and trying
to fashion a blade keen enough to satisfy the boy-Volsung, and also
to kill the Dragon at Hate Hole. But every weapon he made Siegfried
broke into pieces, and demanded a stronger and still stronger sword,
until Mime was in despair.
It angered him terribly, too, that Siegfried, more by instinct than
anything else, knew how wicked his heart was, and how full of bad,
cruel thoughts. The little, dark Nibelung could not understand how
the boy, beautiful as the sun, golden-haired and keen-eyed, strong of
limb and true of heart, loved to roam in the wide forests all the day,
merrily blowing his silver horn and making friends with the woodland
creatures, only returning to Mime’s cave at night. He could not
realize the pleasure that the soft forest voices gave to the youth just
growing into manhood; how he loved the wolves and bears better
than the cringing, evil-eyed, horrible little Dwarf in the cave at home
—the only home he knew.
As for Siegfried, the only thing he wondered at was that he ever went
back to the cave at all. Why did he not roam away forever into the
forest, search out that far, strange place called the world, that really
seemed as if it must be a different universe from the one in which he
lived? He could not tell. He only knew that a strange, irresistible
something seemed to draw him back to Mime’s side every night—a
something he could not explain or even understand. Meanwhile time
passed.
CHAPTER I
He sprang to the anvil and swung the blade high in the air.
“See, Mime, so serves Siegfried’s sword!” he shouted, exultantly.
Down came the flashing steel, and the anvil was shattered in pieces.
Mime sank to the ground in terror, but, holding his father’s sword
above his head, and filled with absolute joy and triumph, stood
young Siegfried—he who had never felt fear, and who had forged
Nothung anew.
Siegfried Motif
[Listen] [MusicXML]
CHAPTER II
HATE HOLE
To Hate Hole, in the dark time before dawn, came the Wanderer,
and found Alberich waiting and watching near the entrance. The
Dwarf was fearfully enraged at the sight of the old god, whom he
hated with all the strength of his wicked Nibelung soul. He burst into
a torrent of abuse and anger as Wotan drew near, speaking of the
broken promise of the giants and the deceit by which the Gold had
been obtained from the Nibelungs, and again threatening the
downfall of the gods when the Ring should come back to his hands.
The Wanderer answered quietly that a hero was even then drawing
near through the woods—a hero fated to kill Fafner and obtain the
Gold; and, with hidden sarcasm, he bade the Dwarf attempt to use
the youth for his own ends.
The King God believed in the workings of Fate. The Norns wove
continually, and all that they wove came to pass. No one could
change the histories wound into their golden cord, until the Dusk of
the Gods had come, when they also would, in the Last Twilight, be
gone forever. So, feeling as he did, it mattered very little whom he
aided, whom he harmed. He even went so far as to arouse Fafner
for Alberich, and ask him to give the Dwarf the Ring. The old Dragon
snarled and yawned and went to sleep again. The Wanderer turned
to the Nibelung, with a great laugh.
“Listen!” he said. “Remember, O Alberich, what I say. All things work
in nature’s course. You can alter nothing.”
And, so saying, he vanished in the dark woods, and a faint, pale
flicker of lightning shot through the forest as he went. Alberich crept
hastily into a crevice in the rocks on one side, and the dawn broke
just as two figures came into the little green glade by Hate Hole.
The figures were those of Siegfried and Mime; for the Nibelung, true
to his word, had led the boy to the place where he was to learn to
fear.
“If you do not hastily discover fear here, my dear boy, you never will
anywhere,” said the Dwarf, with a chuckle. And he described at great
length the means which Fafner would use to teach the art, saying
that the Dragon’s breath was fire, and his twisting tail strong enough
to crush any hero. But Siegfried merely laughed, and said that he
would find the great worm’s heart and strike Nothung into that; and
then he bade Mime be gone. The Nibelung crept away out of sight
among the trees, and as he went he muttered, in an exasperated
undertone:
“Fafner and Siegfried! Siegfried and Fafner! Oh, that each might kill
the other!”
The boy, left alone, sat under a linden-tree, looking up through the
branches. At first Mime’s figure pervaded his brain, and he could not
help remembering the horrible little creature. But, after a while,
thoughts of his mother crept in—very vague and formless thoughts—
for this forest youth had never in his life seen a woman. Leaning
back, he gave himself up to the enchantment of the summer-day,
dreaming boyish dreams, and listening to the forest voices all around
him.
Have you ever sat in a great, green wood and watched the soft
flickering shadows from the little leaves overhead dance back and
forth on the moss? Have you heard the great surge of music made of
a thousand tiny sounds, the hum of little, unseen insects, the ripple
of far-away brooks, the faint sigh of the wind in the tall reeds, the
rustling of the trees, the melodies that seemed made by the touch of
some master-hand on a great harp? That was what Siegfried saw
and heard that summer day when he lay under the linden-tree and
dreamed day-dreams.
After a while a little bird began to sing in the tree above him, and
after listening for a moment, and wondering whether it brought him a
message from his mother, he resolved to try to imitate it,
remembering that Mime had once said that some people were able
to talk with the birds. So he fashioned a flute out of a reed and tried
to play upon it the melody that the bird sang. Finally, however, he
gave it up in despair, and instead, as he began to feel lonely, he blew
a loud blast on his horn—to bring him a friend, he said to himself.
THE DEATH OF THE DRAGON