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Honghua Men
Xi Xiao Editors

Report of Strategic
Studies in China
(2019)
Once-in-a-Century Transformation and
China’s Period of Strategic Opportunity
Report of Strategic Studies in China (2019)
Honghua Men Xi Xiao
•

Editors

Report of Strategic Studies

in China (2019)
Once-in-a-Century Transformation
and China’s Period of Strategic Opportunity

123
Editors
Honghua Men Xi Xiao
School of Political Science School of International and Public Affairs
and International Relations Jilin University
Tongji University Changchun, Jilin, China
Shanghai, China

The editors thank Korea Foundation for its financial support for the research.

ISBN 978-981-15-7731-4 ISBN 978-981-15-7732-1 (eBook)

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-7732-1

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature
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Editorial Board of Strategic Studies in China

Editor

Honghua Men, Tongji University

Editorial Board

Jae-Ho Chung, Seoul National University

Angang Hu, Tsinghua University
Feng Liu, Nankai University
Yinhong Shi, Renmin University of China
Changhe Su, Fudan University
Akio Takahara, the University of Tokyo
Yongsheng Tang, PLA Defense University
Fan Wang, China Foreign Affairs University
Xi Xiao, Jilin University
Zicheng Ye, Peking University
Xianchen Zhang, Chinese Ministry of Commerce
Tianyong Zhou, Central Party School

v
Preface: Shaping China’s Period of Strategic
Opportunity Amid Once-in-a-Century
Transformation

Abstract This article reviews the profound changes in the past century and their
impact on the world. The authors believe that the greatest challenge to China in this
context is how to secure and extend China’s period of strategic opportunity, and
actively shaping this period should be regarded as the core trend of China’s
response. The past century is fundamentally driven by the acceleration of the
technological and industrial revolution as well as the vicissitude of major powers. It
is also a century full of uncertainty and radical changes in ideas and values. What
dazzles all is that China is moving to the center of the world stage from the edge
and is becoming one of the most influential factors. Against this background, apart
from following the traditional ideas such as seizing, making good use of, and
maintaining strategic opportunities, China should put its strategic priority on
extending and actively shaping the period of strategic opportunity. This article
suggests that the cornerstone is to focus on China’s all-round development and
opening-up, the key is to develop a global vision and provide new strategic
opportunities for the world, and the support comes from a stronger presence in the
region and an optimized geopolitical and economic environment.

Keywords Once-in-a-century transformation • Period of strategic opportunity •

China • Strategic studies

Co-authors Honghua Men, Distinguished Professor, Dean of the School of

Political Science and International Relations, President of the Institute for China
and World Studies, Tongji University; Xi Xiao, Distinguished University Professor,
School of International and Public Affairs, Jilin University.

Since the end of the Cold War, especially the beginning of the twenty-first century,
there has been an increasing interdependence and interplay between global trans-
formation and China’s rise. The world is now in an era of major development,
transformation and adjustment, and is undergoing a once-in-a-century transforma-
tion. Meanwhile, China is embracing a golden era since modern times, which is also

vii
viii Preface: Shaping China’s Period of Strategic Opportunity Amid …

a critical moment for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. The third decade
of the twenty-first century will be important for the three centennial goals of China.
As the first goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all aspects by 2020
is about to be achieved, it is necessary to think deeply about another major strategic
issue, i.e., how to positively respond to the major changes so that a solid foundation
can be laid for the second goal. As General Secretary Xi Jinping points out, we
must “focus on two overall situations: domestically we are working toward the
great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and internationally the world is under-
going the greatest changes never seen in a century. This is where we should start
from when we plan our work.”
Throughout the history, the world has always been in a changing state. The
once-in-a-century transformation has some unique implications, with profound and
far-reaching impact on China in particular. Changes will bring rare opportunities
and severe challenges to China’s peaceful development. In view of this, whether
China is still in an important period of strategic opportunity has drawn wide
attention and even triggered heated debate in the academic community of strategic
studies. Moreover, how China can seize, make good use of, maintain, extend and
shape this period is regarded as a core issue about China’s response to the changes.

China and the Once-in-a-Century Transformation

Change is a normal state of the world, and “once-in-a-century transformation”

proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping has its unique meanings. Since the end
of the Cold War, Chinese policymakers have been attaching great importance to the
evolving world landscape and the possible impact of global changes on China.
They believe that China need to reshape its international strategy according to the
key external conditions. The world has witnessed even more profound and complex
changes since the 2010s. The reports of the 19th National Congress of the
Communist Party of China have expounded that “the world is in an era of major
development, transformation and adjustment.” Overlooking the evolution of human
history, Xi Jinping insightfully points out that “the world is undergoing the greatest
changes never seen in a century.”
At the Diplomatic Envoys’ Working Meeting on December 28, 2017, he first
proposed that “we are facing the greatest changes never seen in a century.” At the
Central Conference on Foreign Affairs in June 2018, he systematically expounded
his deep understanding of the changes, pointing out that “China is in the best period
of development since modern times, and the world is undergoing the greatest
changes never seen in a century. The two are intertwined and interact with each
other…. There are numerous new opportunities and challenges in this changing
world. The international order is undergoing profound adjustment. The interna-
tional structures of power are changing drastically toward peace and development,”
“we need to analyze the evolution of the international situation during the world’s
Preface: Shaping China’s Period of Strategic Opportunity Amid … ix

transformation period, and understand the basic characteristics of China’s external

environment at such a historic turn, so as to make overall plans and carry out work
in the field of external relations.” At the BRICS Business Forum in July 2018, he
pointed out that “the next decade will be a crucial one in which new global growth
drivers will take the place of old ones. The next decade will see faster changes in
the international landscape and the international alignment of forces. The next
decade will see a profound reshaping of the global governance system.” In a
keynote speech at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) CEO Summit in
November 2018, he emphasized that “the changes we are encountering in the world
are unseen in a century…. Mankind has once again reached a crossroads.” At the
Working Conference on Military Affairs of the Central Military Commission in
January 2019, he stressed that “today’s world is facing a once-in-a-century trans-
formation, and China’s development is still in an important period of strategic
opportunity, along with growing risks and challenges, predictable or not.” At the
fourth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of CPC in 2019, he clearly
stated that “today’s world is undergoing changes unseen in a century, and our
country is in a critical period to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
We are required to follow the trend and address the principal contradictions and
changes in our society. We must also work hard on our great programs, under-
takings, cause and dream to constantly meet people’s new expectations for a better
life and address various risks and challenges on the way forward.” In a nutshell, Xi
Jinping pays great attention to the rare opportunities and profound challenges
brought about by the changes, based on which he gives guidance on China’s overall
strategic blueprint and the work in the field of external relations.
The major changes are closely related to the international vicissitudes after the
Cold War, the rise and fall of major powers and the collective rise of major
developing countries, the transformation of the Western countries as a consequence
of the global financial crisis in 2008, as well as the acceleration of a new world
order driven by the new round of technological revolution. This is an evolving
process in which the emerging powers are competing with the established ones. The
changes are so unprecedented in breadth and depth that they are profoundly
reflected in: (i) balance of power. Great changes have taken place among major
powers, between the bloc of developed countries and that of developing countries,
and between state actors and non-state ones; (ii) shift of development paradigm.
The paradigm is transforming from industrialization to sustainability, largely driven
by climate change; and (iii) a new round of technological revolution, mainly the
development of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and
Internet of things (IoT) that may be used to replace human labor. The authors
believe that the most fundamental forces driving changes are the technological
and industrial revolution and the acceleration of the rise and fall of major
powers. The new technological revolution is reshaping the world at a faster pace.
The rapid advancement of technology is not only a result of the changes but also a
driving force for the changes. Emerging technologies like AI, big data, the Internet,
space technology, biotechnology and quantum technology are fully developing to
promote the generation of new tools, industries and forms of business. The new
x Preface: Shaping China’s Period of Strategic Opportunity Amid …

round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is triggering revo-

lutionary growth in economic, social and military forces, which in turn will change
the way national strength is enhanced, the content of international competition and
traditional forms of war, and driving the extension of globalization in breadth and
depth. In this sense, it is one fundamental force driving major changes in the world.
The other is the rise and fall of major powers.
Entering the twenty-first century, the incremental portion of the world’s eco-
nomic growth has been mainly contributed by developing countries. This is a major
change in the modern history of the world development, leading to a cease of
unipolarity for the international political and economic structure. Broadly, the world
order is seeing a change from Western-centric to non-Western-centric, or juxta-
position. At a time when globalization is adjusted, the international power structure
is reshaped, and the technological revolution is in progress, this change is just in its
infancy and there is still a long way to go. It is noteworthy that emerging market
countries as a whole are experiencing a painful process from rise to decline or
transition, in spite of good economic performance of a handful of countries such as
China and India. The change is deeply reflected in the sheer uncertainty of the
world. In the face of changes, major powers are stepping up their internal and
external adjustments to seize the strategic commanding heights and secure their
own advantage in the competition. This has accelerated a profound evolution of the
international landscape, and uncertainty and instability are becoming prominent.
A rise in unilateralism and protectionism has challenged the international multi-
lateralism and global governance system. The world at a crossroads is now facing a
significant choice between unilateralism and multilateralism, confrontation and
dialogue, or isolation and openness. What is more noteworthy is the radical
change in ideas and values. In the face of changes, any country, however strong it
is, can neither remain aloof from the world nor be a savior of the world. Instead, all
countries should work together to address the changes. In view of the fact that each
country needs to handle its own problems in collaboration with other countries,
international cooperation appears to be more precious than ever before. However,
due to the significant change in balance of power, the “anti-globalization” populist
climate is spreading in the USA and other Western countries. Protectionism,
ant-globalization and even neo-isolationism are once again on the rise in the USA.
In this context, strategic competition among major powers has become increasingly
fierce. The authors believe that the world is still in an early stage of change, and the
international system is approaching a critical point of transformation. At a time
when globalization is adjusted, the international structures of power are moving
toward balance, and the technological revolution is just unfolding, the world is now
standing at a new crossroads and there will be necessarily all kinds of differences,
confusion and concerns from country to country.
One of the most notable performances is that China is moving to the center of the
world stage from the edge and becoming one of the most influential factors. China’s
rapid development and far-reaching influence is an extraordinary phenomenon
never seen in a century. At critical moments like this, it is transforming from a big
country to a major power. Its strategic vision has attracted worldwide attention. As
Preface: Shaping China’s Period of Strategic Opportunity Amid … xi

countries around the world are generally confused about the future, China is fol-
lowing the trends of the times to actively build a new type of international relations
and a global community of shared future, while push the global governance system
to develop in a more just and reasonable direction. It is becoming a cornerstone in
this changing world. As Xi Jinping pointed out in a speech at the special seminar of
provincial and ministerial officials to study and implement the spirit of the fifth
plenary session of the 18th National Congress of CPC, “twenty or even 15 years
ago, economic globalization was mainly driven by the USA and other Western
countries. Today, however, China is considered the biggest force driving global
trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, and we are proactively fighting
against Western countries’ protectionism of all kinds.” We need to let the world
understand China from a global vision. As a rising power, China’s development and
transformation will not only change itself, but also have a significant impact on the
world. China’s all-round rise has driven the rise of other developing countries and
further cooperation in the developing world. In this sense, it plays a leading role in
promoting strategic cooperation and positive competition. Besides, China is
becoming a world power while rising as a socialist power in the East. The enormous
changes unseen in a century are regarded as a confrontation between capitalism and
socialism. The changes will inevitably pose severe challenges to China’s strategic
opportunity period, and reversely China’s future direction will also have a signif-
icant impact on the changing situation.

China’s Period of Strategic Opportunity Amid Changes

The greatest challenge to China brought about by the changes is whether its period
of strategic opportunity will continue. Over the years, the period of strategic
opportunity has been a buzzword used by the Chinese leadership to advance reform
and development. How to embrace the period is regarded as a priority for China’s
strategic plan. Opportunity is inherently uncertain and non-permanent, with
necessity and contingency combined. In an era of major changes, restructuring and
reshuffle, opportunities and challenges naturally coexist, and the former may be
greater than the latter. Strategic opportunity is not merely a strategic position, but a
combination of strategic competition, challenge, breakthrough, balance, crisis and
turnaround. The period of strategic opportunity refers to a specific period in history
as a result of various factors at home and abroad that can provide a country with
good opportunities for development while having a global, long-term and decisive
influence on its destiny. From a global perspective, the period of strategic oppor-
tunity is a result of changes in various paradoxical movements around the world. In
such a period, opportunities are generated under the influence of various factors at
home and abroad. From a national perspective, this period is an intermediate stage
in which a country is ready for rapid development. It is critical to a transition from
quantitative change to qualitative change. It can be treated as an ecosystem where
xii Preface: Shaping China’s Period of Strategic Opportunity Amid …

opportunities and challenges coexist and intertwine. On the one side of coin, there
are development opportunities and good environments, and on the other side, there
are often hidden threats and actual challenges. In view of this, strategic opportu-
nities are closely associated with strategic challenges. The formation and extension
of this period depend on objective factors at home and abroad, but more impor-
tantly, we can take the initiative to shape it.
Grasping strategic opportunities for development has been a valuable experience
since the People’s Republic of China was founded. Based on an insight into the
international situation, Mao Zedong proposed the “one-line” strategy and the “Two
Middle Grounds” and “Three Worlds” theory successively. He seized the strategic
opportunities and led China to achieve independence and diplomatic breakthroughs,
and break the blockade and encirclement of great powers, with the aim of growing
into a major power in the world. From the non-aligned independent and peaceful
foreign policy to the primary goal of peaceful development, Deng Xiaoping cap-
tured the rare opportunities in global changes and guided China toward reform,
opening-up and economic rise. From the end of the twentieth century to the
beginning of the twenty-first century, major changes took place in both domestic
and international situations. Jiang Zemin seized the historic opportunities in that
context and made strategic judgments with guiding significance. In a speech at the
graduation ceremony of the provincial and ministerial officials’ class for further
studies of the Party School of the CPC Central Committee on May 31, 2002, Jiang
noted that “the first two decades of the twenty-first century are an important period
of strategic opportunity for our country. We must seize such opportunities to create
a promising future.” The report of the 16th National Congress of CPC further
defines the time frame of this period. As a result, the 20-year period of building a
moderately prosperous society in all aspects has been closely linked to the 20-year
period of strategic opportunity whose breadth and depth are greatly extended. Hu
Jintao also stressed the importance of seizing strategic opportunities to achieve
leapfrog development, saying that “for China or other countries in the world, the
key to a successful society is about seizing opportunities for accelerated develop-
ment. Opportunities are extremely precious and fleeting. In a critical period, it is
possible for underdeveloped countries to develop by leap and bounds if they seize
opportunities; the incumbent major powers are also likely to fall behind the times if
they miss opportunities.” From China’s development experience, especially in
2000–2010, almost every strategic breakthrough was closely related to the trans-
lation of crises into opportunities. From 2010 to 2020, in response to any potential
global financial crisis, competition is prevailing over cooperation in the interna-
tional community. And the world pattern is undergoing profound changes. China
seems to have suddenly fallen into some strategic dilemma, under severe strategic
pressures in security, economic, political and other fields. US President Donald
Trump has always regarded China as a strategic opponent since he took office.
Then, does China’s period of strategic opportunity exist? Opinions vary across
different communities, but many people hold a negative view.
General Secretary Xi Jinping is convinced of and optimistic about China’s
period of strategic opportunity after an in-depth study was made. He pointed out in
Preface: Shaping China’s Period of Strategic Opportunity Amid … xiii

the report of the 19th National Congress of CPC that the current situations at home
and abroad are undergoing profound and complex changes, and China is still in a
critical period of strategic opportunity for development, faced with both bright
prospects and severe challenges. Strategic opportunities and major risks coexist,
while bright prospects are in parallel with severe challenges, which is a striking
feature of socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era. At the opening
ceremony of a seminar to study and implement the spirit of the 19th National
Congress of CPC on January 5, 2018, Xi Jinping emphasized that China is in a
period of historic opportunities for a bright future. At the Central Economic
Working Conference in December 2018, he stressed that China is still and will be in
a long period of important strategic opportunities. In a world undergoing
unprecedented changes in a century, crises more than often go hand in hand with
opportunities, which may bring great opportunities for the great rejuvenation of the
Chinese nation. By saying China will be in a long period of important strategic
opportunities, the Chinese policymakers demonstrate their confidence and deter-
mination. Xi Jinping also has an insight into the domestic and international situa-
tions, emphasizing that “today’s world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a
century, and it is a crucial time for us to realize the great rejuvenation of our nation.
The closer we are to the goal, the more complex the situation is, and the more
arduous the task becomes.” Xi Jinping made an overall judgment and work
deployment in his speech at the symposium to promote the rise of central China in
May 2019. He said that “China is still in an important period of strategic oppor-
tunity for development, but the international situation grows more complicated day
by day. We should be aware of various long-lasting and complicated disadvantages
at home and abroad, so that we can get properly prepared for all kinds of difficulties.
Above all, we must do our own things well. More specifically, we should make
overall research and deployment to push forward reform and development and
maintain a stable environment. We must make plans before taking actions. Those
who have a solid foundation can make a difference.”
China’s period of strategic opportunity is built upon its own sustainable devel-
opment and strategic innovation. As Xi Jinping emphasized, China’s greatest
opportunity comes from its sustained development and growth. From the second
decade of the twenty-first century, China begins to embrace its second period of
strategic opportunity and lead global development as a great power on the broad
international stage. While the international cooperation under the Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI) is moving ahead, China and the world have entered a critical period of
positive interaction, in which China is creating new strategic opportunities for the
world. Meanwhile, the world economy is undergoing profound adjustment and global
governance is seeing major changes. There are new opportunities in an evolving
international landscape. The booming technological revolution, the global expansion
of multinationals, and the aspirations of the developing world provide important
strategic opportunities for China’s further development and all-round opening. At a
time when emerging countries are rising, the world is experiencing power transition,
and the plight of the West remains unchanged and is even getting worse, China is well
positioned to maintain its period of strategic opportunity. Looking forward, China
xiv Preface: Shaping China’s Period of Strategic Opportunity Amid …

also has great advantages for further economic development because there are
deep-seated contradictions in the USA, Europe and Japan, such as limited develop-
ment space, weakened growth momentum, large-scale virtual economy, etc. Facing
the anti-globalization trend, China’s stance toward economic globalization and its
efforts to create strategic opportunities have been widely recognized by the world,
which also helps China to maintain its period of strategic opportunity. In this process,
China has grown into a major contributor to the world economy from a dependent, and
an important leader in the transformation of the international system from an
accommodator. It is playing a key role in shaping its period of strategic opportunity.
China consolidates cooperation with large developing countries and coordination
with major neighboring countries, as well as expanding partnership along the Belt and
Road. As an active shaper of new international relations, China is striving to enhance
its international cooperation and strategic coordination with major countries, and
continues to expand its international influence. Therefore, Xi Jinping emphasized that
the connotation of China’s opportunities is expanding, and China has the confidence
and capability to maintain its economic growth at a medium-high rate and to create
more opportunities for the world. China’s development plan is exactly made
according to such an important period of strategic opportunity.
However, when today’s world is seeing a once-in-a-century transformation,
China is also faced with all kinds of predictable and unpredictable risks and
challenges, leading to profound changes in the connotation of and conditions for its
period of strategic opportunity. The world has many risks and challenges to address,
such as lackluster growth, sluggish demand, repeated turbulence in financial mar-
kets, and continued depression in international trade and investment. Deficits in
peace, development and governance are growing, while anti-globalization, unilat-
eralism and protectionism are intensifying. Trump’s hostile strategy has put China
in a strategic dilemma. China’s national security is under increasing threat. The
international economic climate, which is uneasy to predict, is also adding pressure
to China. When economic globalization is transforming, it is apparently more
difficult for China to maintain its period of strategic opportunity. China is set to face
a more complicated international environment. There is such likelihood that
someone may create a barrier or stir up trouble in interrupting China’s development.
At home, China is facing many challenges relating to economic, political, social
and cultural development, ecological civilization and national security, which are
closely related to the changes in the international situation. As a result, China must
face unprecedented contradictions, risks and wrestle. “If we are absent-minded for a
second, we may fall into the traps carefully set by others.”
To sum up, China must grow stronger to actively shape its period of strategic
opportunity as this period is no longer as stable and spontaneous as before. In view
of this, we must correctly understand the profound changes in the connotation of
this period, tackle various risks and challenges in a more effective manner, and
proactively create opportunities or turn challenges into opportunities. The tradi-
tional way of thinking is to seize, make good use of, and maintain the period of
strategic opportunity. But now an inevitable strategic trend for China is how to
extend and proactively shape this period, with the latter as a dominant direction.
Preface: Shaping China’s Period of Strategic Opportunity Amid … xv

Embracing Change and Shaping China’s Period of Strategic

Opportunity

In the face of enormous changes unseen in a century and the evolving period of
strategic opportunity, China should follow the historical trends and respond to the
changes positively so that it can keep pace with the times. We must improve our
abilities to master and apply the laws of market economy, nature and social
development, to make scientific and democratic decisions, and to think globally and
strategically. In January 2013, Xi Jinping put forward the strategic concept that “we
should promote the positive and mutually beneficial interactions with the world by
using global opportunities and offering opportunities to the world.”
In the speech at the conference commemorating the 200th anniversary of the birth
of Karl Marx in May 2018, he pointed out that “we must look at today’s develop-
ment trends and major issues with the world history in mind. We must adhere to the
path of peaceful development, an independent foreign policy of peace and a
mutually beneficial strategy of opening-up. We must expand cooperation with other
countries and actively participate in global governance for win-win cooperation and
common development in more fields and at higher levels. We must neither depend
on nor plunder others. Instead, we must work with other countries to build a com-
munity with a shared future for mankind and make the world a better place.” At the
Central Conference on Foreign Affairs in June 2018, he stressed the strategic
thinking that “we must seek a holistic approach to both the domestic and interna-
tional situations. Stay confident strategically and maintain a strategic focus. Make
innovations in our diplomatic theories and practices. Develop strategic plans with a
global vision. Defend the core and major interests of our country. Seek win-win
cooperation based on a right approach to justice and interests. Embrace bottom-line
thinking and risk awareness.” In April 2019 when meeting with UN
Secretary-General António Guterres, Xi Jinping noted that “the world is now
undergoing profound changes unseen in a century. We must see things as they really
are and grasp the historical laws. Economic globalization is an irreversible trend, and
win-win cooperation is the right way ahead.” In summary, in the face of profound
changes, Xi Jinping led China to expand strategic vision, deepen strategic operations
and make strategic innovations based on a strategic willpower. By actively seizing
and shaping the period of strategic opportunity, China is building a strategic
framework for peaceful development centered on integration, transformation and
creation. China is dedicated to playing a more active and constructive role on the
international stage after it enriches its peaceful development and plans how to rise.
With strategic thinking on a holistic approach to both the domestic and inter-
national situations, Xi Jinping has proposed a raft of new concepts and initiatives,
including a global community of shared future, a new model of international
relations, and the principle of upholding the greater good and pursuing shared
interests. He calls for enhanced strategic layout and further implementation of the
BRI. China will play a key role in the fields of global economic governance,
international financial order, infrastructure construction and comprehensive
xvi Preface: Shaping China’s Period of Strategic Opportunity Amid …

cooperation in East Asia with the aim of shaping a new period of strategic
opportunity. Along with these strategic measures, China has not only served as a
major powerhouse and stabilizer for global development, but also grown into a key
defender and active promoter of world peace and human progress. In this process,
China values to the dialectical unity of keeping a low profile and making a dif-
ference. It is necessary to have a clear understanding of the long-term and com-
plicated disadvantages at home and abroad, brace for various difficult situations,
focus on strategic operations, avoid strategic miscalculations, and prevent from
making strategic mistakes. China should implement its plans in accordance with the
new connotation of the period of strategic opportunity. China is seeking steady
development amid changes and shaping the new period of strategic opportunity,
which echoes one of its finest traditional strategies—“be kind to the world, avoid
self-interests, work together based on mutual trust.”
To shape China’s period of strategic opportunity amid profound changes in
a century, it is crucial to remember the following key points.
First, the cornerstone is to focus on development and promote opening-up
in an all-round way. In other words, China should adhere to the path of peaceful
development, strive to enhance its overall national strength, and consolidate the
material and spiritual basis for its all-round rise. Meanwhile, it must grab the
opportunity to promote reform and opening-up via a package of measures. China’s
all-round development is fundamentally based on economic sustainability, and the
key to shaping the period of strategic opportunity is the substantive change in the
economic development pattern. In this sense, it is essential to make steady progress,
maintain strategic willpower, drive structural reform, transformation and upgrading,
implement the innovation-driven development strategy and accelerate the devel-
opment of a modern economic system. The focus of China’s economic growth has
shifted from speed to quality. It is now in a critical stage of transforming devel-
opment pattern, optimizing economic structure and shifting gears. Modernizing the
economic system is both a pressing need and a strategic goal because it can help
China achieve leap-forward development in a stable way. We must put quality and
efficiency first, focus on the supply-side structural reform, drive economic trans-
formation in terms of quality, efficiency and force, improve total factor productivity,
shape an industrial system in which real economy, technological innovation,
modern finance and human resources can develop in a coordinated way, and build
an economic system characterized by effective market mechanisms, dynamic
micro-entities and sound macro-regulation.
As Xi Jinping stressed, we must closely follow the new connotation of important
strategic opportunities, accelerate the optimization and upgrading of economic
structure, enhance scientific and technological innovation capabilities, deepen
reform and opening-up, expedite green development, participate in the transfor-
mation of the global economic governance system, and turn pressure into a driving
force for high-quality economic development. We must insist on innovation-driven
development while optimizing the driving force, adhere to coordinated develop-
ment while bridging the gap, seek green development while maintaining a harmony
between human and nature, pursue open development along with interactions
Preface: Shaping China’s Period of Strategic Opportunity Amid … xvii

between China and the rest of the world, and promote inclusive development while
safeguarding social fairness and justice, so as to fully stimulate and demonstrate the
vigor and vitality of socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era.
Meanwhile, we must proactively follow the trend of globalization, and leverage
the advanced technological achievements and useful management experience cre-
ated by human society. We can carry out an array of experimental programs such as
building pilot free trade zones/ports, expanding pilot projects in the service
industry, and making experiments for an open economy based on new systems, so
as to overhaul systems in commercial registration, regulation on trade, and financial
openness and innovation. It is also necessary to enhance system integration,
improve an international and convenient business environment of fair competition
under the rule of law, and open wider to the world based on systematic institutional
reform. Meanwhile, we should build an open economy based on new systems at a
faster pace, vigorously promote development along the Belt and Road, take an
active part in the reform and building of the global governance system, and usher in
a new frontier where China leads global cooperation.
Second, the key is to develop a global vision and create new strategic
opportunities for the world. The changes in the connotation of China’s period of
strategic opportunity and its forming conditions are closely related to the interac-
tions between China and the world. As China is approaching the center of the world
stage and becoming an endogenous factor and power for the major changes, China
is not only hitchhiking the express train of global development, but also creating
opportunities for the world. As China has been dealing with the world in a different
way since its rise, it will be restricted and contained by diverse forces. That’s why
China must also work together with other countries to maintain its period of
strategic opportunity. On account of this, we must take notice of accelerated
multi-polarization and further adjustment of relations between major powers,
understand the sustainability of economic globalization and the profound changes
in the world economic pattern, pay equal attention to the stability of international
landscape and the complexity of global security challenges, learn from other civ-
ilizations and focus on the interactions among ideologies and cultures, so that we
can play a more positive and constructive leading role in global affairs.
At a time when world economy is at a critical turning point, China seeks to build
a global community of shared future and a new model of international relations,
make global governance fairer and more equitable, and shape a stable and balanced
framework of relations among major countries. And it also strives to promote
institutionalized cooperation of BRICS, thus maintains a strategic balance toward
the USA. In the meantime, China has been actively participating in and contributing
Chinese wisdom to global governance, in an effort to help the international com-
munity effectively address common challenges like deficits in peace, development
and governance. Impacted by anti-globalization, China has realized that it is in a
vortex of debate about the future direction of globalization transformation. China
must seek consensus and compromise with the international community to tackle
common threats such as terrorism, proliferation of nuclear weapons and other
advanced technologies, failed states and climate change. It also needs to consult
xviii Preface: Shaping China’s Period of Strategic Opportunity Amid …

with developed countries to advance a new pattern of globalization, achieve

common evolution and prevent a situation of strategic confrontation. As Xi Jinping
pointed out, facing profound changes and severe global challenges and standing at a
crossroads, all countries should act instead of sitting by. We can be the master of
our own future. Fairness and equity, mutual consultation and understanding, con-
certed efforts and mutual benefit are solutions to deficits in governance, trust, peace
and development, which can in turn allow people all over the world to share the
fruits of economic globalization. In this process, China should not only seize
opportunities for its own global expansion, but also strive to create strategic
opportunities for the world and let the world benefit from China’s opportunities and
achievements. As a contributor, China must prevent other countries from decou-
pling and push international cooperation to a new level based on the principles of
extensive consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits.
Third, the support comes from a stronger presence in the region and an
optimized geopolitical and economic environment. Throughout history, all major
powers dominated regional affairs before rising into a real power. Generally, those
without a global strategy cannot pursue regional leadership. But now with eco-
nomic globalization and regional integration, those without regional leadership
cannot pursue a global strategy. China’s period of strategic opportunity is facing
global challenges, mainly from East Asia and its surrounding area. Due to certain
historical reasons, China’s regional relations mainly involve its neighboring
countries. And the countries along the Belt and Road can be regarded as an
expansion of East Asia and China’s surrounding area. In view of this, China’s
regional focus is reflected in the three levels of East Asia, its surrounding area and
the Belt and Road.
Since the 1990s, China has been working hard to promote regional cooperation,
help shape an institutional framework for comprehensive cooperation in East Asia,
enhance its geopolitical and economic influence, and effectively thwart attempts by
the USA and other countries to make trouble around China and disrupt its strategic
opportunities. Meanwhile, China has also strengthened cooperation with Russia and
Central Asian countries, played a leading role in promoting the development and
expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and established fur-
ther partnerships with India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and other countries in South and
West Asia, as part of its efforts to amplify influence in the region and ensure
stability and development of its neighbors.
On that basis, China proposed the Belt and Road Initiative brimming with pro-
found strategic implications. China seeks to build a high-quality Belt and Road
together with its partners, and fulfills its responsibilities as a major power by adhering
to the principle of upholding the greater good and pursuing shared interests, a vision
of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security, new approaches to
development, and a new outlook on the world. This is a clear proof of China’s
initiative to provide the world with strategic opportunities. The BRI is a pan-Asian
strategy that involves land and sea, focuses on Asia, radiates China’s neighboring
countries and regions, and influences the whole world, reflecting China’s vision of
building an open and inclusive mechanism for regional cooperation.
Preface: Shaping China’s Period of Strategic Opportunity Amid … xix

As a regional economic concept, the BRI is designed to promote common

development of all participants and it is underpinned by the Eurasian economic
integration. With a focus on Asian countries and based on connectivity, this ini-
tiative is a regional arrangement in the form of building land and maritime eco-
nomic cooperation corridors. It is characterized by diversified cooperation
mechanisms. The aim is to build a global community of shared future. It shows that
China has positioned itself as a global power. Instead of limiting its interests to
Asia, China has been expanding its international influence across Asia, Europe and
Africa, and looking for institutionalized cooperation globally. The BRI is a major
strategy for China to boost economic ties with the rest of the world by land and sea
and pursue economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region. It is also an important
starting point for China to shape the period of strategic opportunity in the new era.
The authors believe that the BRI can be regarded as China’s major strategic
vision that focuses on Asia, radiates its neighboring countries and regions and
influences the whole world. It is an organic combination of China’s opening-up,
regional cooperation and global development. The initiative is an important tool
and a core path for China to provide the world with new strategic opportunities as it
is making its own opportunities available to the world.

Shanghai, China Honghua Men

Changchun, China Xi Xiao
Contents

Once-in-a-Century Transformation and China

Once-in-a-Century Transformation and the World Order . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Bin Li
China’s Position and Direction in the Once-in-a-Century
Transformation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Zhenye Liu
Transformation of International Order, Globalization and External
Constraints on China’s Opening-Up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Hongzhong Liu

Safeguard and Reshape China’s Strategic Opportunity

Creating and Grasping Strategic Opportunities for China . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Angang Hu
The Three-Circle Theory and China’s Periods of Strategic
Opportunity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Yilong Yan
BRI in the Vision of Chinese Civilization and Construction of Global
Ethical Consensus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
Lei Sun

Strategic Roadmap for the BRI Construction

Strategic Thinking on the Rulemaking Under the BRI . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
Honghua Men

xxi
xxii Contents

Chain Risks and Solutions for Infrastructure Investment of BRI . . . . . . 135

G. E. Tianren and Ming Zhang
Reshaping Views on China: A Study on Chinese Soft Power
in the Context of BRI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
Shu Li and Liang Wu
Once-in-a-Century Transformation
and China
Once-in-a-Century Transformation
and the World Order

Bin Li

To get a clear understanding of the proposition that the world is facing a once-in-
a-century transformation, we should recognize: (i) the basis for the change, (ii) the
changing world; and (iii) the ensuing opportunities and risks. We need to play a
positive role in reshaping the world order rather than act on impulse. At a time when
the world is at a crossroads, incorrect understanding of the above three issues will
make us be passive and conservative, or become blindly optimistic and even fail on
the eve of success. Many major changes in Chinese and foreign history are good
testament to the dialectics of historical development.
What is the basis? This is both an ontological question and an epistemological
question. The ontology of the international community is neither economy nor poli-
tics, but political economy. It is an economy-based ontology with politics as the
superstructure. To understand the changes in today’s world from the ontological
perspective featuring historical materialism, it is necessary to find the root cause
from the changes in the economic basis. As Engels said, “The ultimate cause of all
social changes and political reforms should not be found from people’s minds or
their growing knowledge of eternal truth and justice, but from the changes in mode
of production and exchange.”1 Globally, the international division of labor is the
economic basis of world politics, and the changes in the pattern of division and the
mode of exchange are the underlying reason for global transformation.
We need to realize that different things are changing at different rates. According to
Fernand Braudel’s proposal, such rates can be divided into different levels: (i) world
of events, which consists of events relating to people’s daily lives. The resultant
“event time” is changing every day; (ii) world of conjunctures, which is composed
of some social transitions. The “conjunctural time” takes 10, 20 or 50 years, which
reflects “a moderately paced history, a history in which powers are realigned and

B. Li (B)
School of Political Science & International Relations, Tongji University, Shanghai, China
e-mail: [email protected]
1 Marx and Engels [1].

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer 3
Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2021
H. Men and X. Xiao (eds.), Report of Strategic Studies in China (2019),
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-7732-1_1
4 B. Li

combined”; and (iii) world of structures, which requires centuries of “longue durée”
(long duration).2 The above three rates reflect the world’s development process at
micro, meso and macro levels. Daily changes will lead to transition of social trends,
which will ultimately cause transformation and replacement of social patterns and
structures. According to Braudel’s theory, the once-in-a-century transformation from
a global perspective is just a meso-level change reflecting world trends, i.e., a change
in the existing pattern of world power. It may be the beginning of reorganization of
power, but it is not the structural change of world capitalism, let alone the impending
advent of world communism.
It will be improper to predict the future trend of the world in a mechanical and
teleological way, thinking that the world is bound to change in some directions.
A once-in-a-century transformation means that the world is at a crossroads rather
than move in some direction. Although the Western-led world order is now facing
a variety of contradictions and crises, there are still a lot of possibilities for future
development. Different powers are working towards a new world order in their own
interests. In this sense, transformation also brings risks and challenges. However, as
the saying goes, “History is created by the brave”, a bright future can only be created
by those who are brave enough to overcome difficulties. Therefore, we must throw
away the mechanistic view and recognize the role of subjective initiative so that we
can see clearly the future direction of the world.
Based on a good understanding of the change from the above three aspects, we can
have look at the history and overall situation correctly, be well aware of the changes
that the world is experiencing and the long and complex progress of human towards
civilization, taking our historical responsibilities bravely. In this changing world,
we should not be confused about temporary setbacks and troubles, or lose sight of
the future in a “world of events”. We must give full play to our subjective initiative
based on our own capabilities instead of adapting to the situation conservatively and
passively. Meanwhile, we must stay calm and focused.

1 Material Basis of the Change

The ultimate cause of all social and political changes lies in the changes in mode of
production and exchange. This principle of historical materialism applies equally to
the international community.
From the perspective of historical materialism, the primary purpose of human
production activities is to meet the needs of survival and development. To meet
the most fundamental needs like eating, drinking and having shelter and clothing,
human must produce and develop the productivity.3 With the development of produc-
tion, single-person production has been gradually replaced by socialized one. An
important feature of the interpersonal relations formed in this process is reflected

2 Helleiner [2].
3 Marx and Engels [1], p. 79.
Once-in-a-Century Transformation and the World Order 5

in the social power relations.4 Therefore, those who dominate the division of labor
in social production will dominate the distribution of benefits and power, which
will significantly determine the state and order of a society. This echoes what Marx
said: “Human beings have definite, inevitable relations independent of their will in
social production, or production relations appropriate to the development stage of
their material productivity. The sum of these production relations constitutes the
economic structure of a society, upon which there are legal and political superstruc-
tures, and a certain realistic basis with appropriate social ideology. The production
mode of material life restricts the entire process of social, political and spiritual
life.”5 Such principle that economic basis determines superstructure, together with
the corresponding class analysis, apply to both domestic society and international
community. The only difference is that the class in the international community is
measured by country.
Marx once said, “Under the condition of more developed exchanges, the same
situation (division of labor within the nation) will also occur in the mutual rela-
tions among ethnic groups.”6 The international division of labor is the embodiment
of human’s social division of labor beyond nation-state. A kind of international
production relations has taken shape among countries around the international divi-
sion of labor. Those who dominate the international/global division of labor can gain
greater benefits from the international production process (today’s transnational value
chains) and can secure a dominant position in the international power relations, thus
affecting the international superstructures (international institutions or global gover-
nance). The status of a country in the international division of labor is the most
important manifestation of its development stage. Marx once mentioned the interna-
tional politics as a consequence of the international division of labor in his era: “Just
as it subordinated a village to a city, it subordinated an uncivilized and semi-civilized
country to a civilized one, a peasant nation to a bourgeois one, and the East to the
West.”7 It is on the basis of a strong economy that Western countries can dominate
global political economy and build production relations in which others must depend
on them for a long time. Such relations were first characterized by the colonial system,
followed by financial control. Now they rely heavily on technological control.8
Observing the changes in the international division of labor and trade ties in
recent years from this perspective, we can discover the underlying material basis
of the once-in-a-century transformation. As an important reference index, foreign
investment shows whether a country is leading the international division of labor.
Western developed countries (including Japan) had been a leader in this regard for a

4 Production relations, social relations of production, and power relations of production are three
different ways to express a problem. The dominant-subordinate relations that reflect power in the
production process is the power relations. See Cox [3].
5 Marx and Engels [1], p. 32.
6 Marx and Engels [1], p. 32.
7 Marx and Engels [1], pp. 276–277.
8 Santos [4], pp. 263–264. Although Sandos made this point in the 1970s, this technological control

in the current global production chain has not changed and even become more prominent.
6 B. Li

long time because their foreign investment ranked top in the world. However, China
has gradually become the world’s top five countries in terms of foreign investment
since 2009 and has been in the top three in more recent years. As a long-time recipient
of international division of labor, China is now becoming a leader, which was not
seen in the past century. China’s leading role in the world economy can also be proved
by its foreign trade scale and its stimulation to the global economy.
Starting from 2005 statistically, China has seen a steady rise in exports of goods
and services, being the world’s largest exporter since 2012. Meanwhile, it has been
the world’s second largest importer of goods and services since 2010. Additionally,
(from the asymptotic line) China shows the most notable upward trend in imports
and exports among the world’s top three trading nations. More importantly, China
as the world’s second largest economy has contributed 30% to global economic
growth per annum in recent years, outranking the US, the world’s largest economy.
And globally, Chinese companies have made remarkable achievements in the new
generation of communication technology (e.g. 5G) and equipment that may trigger
the fourth industrial revolution. Although Western companies, especially those in
the US, can provide the state-of-the-art 5G components and technology, Chinese
companies are already in a leading position in general.
A country’s economic status in the world can only be measured by its role in
the international division of labor. Other indicators like GDP (including per capita
GDP) and PPP (purchasing power parity) are not enough to reflect such status. The
service industry is indeed an important part of the GDP indicator, but there are also
certain virtual components that cannot reflect a country’s strength. For example, the
practice of law is included in the service industry and the attorney fee in the US is very
expensive, accounting for a considerable proportion of the total GDP. But this revenue
cannot reflect the reality of national wealth. In addition, exchange fluctuation is also
a factor affecting the comparison of aggregate economic output between countries
by GDP. A decline in the exchange rate may cause distortions in the comparison
of economic strength between two countries. Other indicators such as per capita
GDP are also unable to accurately reflect a country’s role in the world economy. For
example, the per capita GDP of some oil-producing countries in the Middle East is
much higher than that of the world’s most developed countries, but no one deems
these countries as a modern power. Similarly, PPP is not a good measurement. If each
unit of local currency buys more goods and services whose quality is poor, it is also
impossible to reflect a country’s economic strength. Therefore, a country’s status
in the global power pattern must be fundamentally measured by its position in the
international division of labor. Leadership in such pattern is the basis for a country’s
dominance in the international relations of production and its transformation into a
true modern power. The above indicators including foreign investment, imports and
exports, and contribution to world economic growth demonstrate an indisputable
fact that China is now playing a bigger role in world economy than ever before. We
should not overstate our achievements, but there is a reason for the Chinese people
to be proud of such achievements and the remarkable national strength. This is the
most fundamental material basis of the transformation.
Once-in-a-Century Transformation and the World Order 7

2 What is the Change About?

The world has been experiencing an unpredictable change since the 2008 global
financial crisis. Especially in recent years, unconventional changes are taking place
in Western powers. People are shocked at the “Black Swan” events from time to time.
For example, before the Brexit referendum, British leaders treated it only a form of
Western-style democracy whose result would come as no surprise. But the result
turned out to be just the opposite. Donald Trump surprisingly won the presidential
election in 2016 although he was made fun of during his election campaign. Trump’s
policies after he came to power are in stark contrast with the preceding orthodox. His
“America First” policy has turned the US from the leader of the postwar international
system into a destroyer, greatly widening the gap in the US-led Western alliance.
Before 2008, there was little suspense about Western powers’ overturning the
heterogeneous regimes of developing countries, although such regimes were “demo-
nized” by the West. The international force driving this change was an “Interna-
tional League” led by the US. After 2008, however, this situation has changed.
Overthrowing the Gaddafi regime in Libya in 2011 was the only successful military
operation after 2008. But this operation was different from the past. The US sat back,
and France spearheaded the campaign. As a supporter, the US did not send ground
forces. Moreover, US President Barack Obama wrote in a letter to Congressmen that
there are “limits” on its military operation against Libya in terms of nature, duration
and scale, and he wants NATO to dominate the military sanctions against Libya. The
Assad regime in Syria, a heterogeneous Middle Eastern one that the West has been
trying to overturn, still exists and has a firm foothold. Since 2008, the US has kept
a low profile in transforming heterogeneous regimes, partly because it finds itself in
deep trouble in Iraq and Afghanistan, and it cannot afford another war amid gradual
recovery from the financial crisis. From Obama to Trump, there were signals of with-
drawal from the Middle East, which were opposed by some domestic forces for fear
of severe aftermath of rapid withdrawal. The result is the US has not fully pulled
out until now. After 2008, the world even saw anti-Western “Color Revolutions”.
The one in Kyrgyzstan in 2010 marked a major setback for the “Color Revolutions”
plotted by the West in Central Asia. It was the first anti-Western “Color Revolution”
in Central Asia after the Cold War, and it has never happened before.
The transition of the world can also be reflected in the stronger aspirations of
some non-Western powers to play an active role. In the summer of 2008, Russia
conducted a military strike on Georgia to support South Ossetia, an area within the
territory of Georgia that was seeking a split. In 2014, Russia’s crackdown on Ukraine
caused Crimea to secede from Ukraine and rejoin Russia. Russia backed the armed
confrontation of the breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine against Kiev. Among those
former Soviet Union countries, Georgia and Ukraine are two that are most eager to
join NATO, except for the three along the Baltic coast. These two actions are a
serious warning of Russia to those pro-Western former Soviet Union countries and
to NATO’s continuous eastward expansion. They are also the most hawkish actions
taken by Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 2015, Russia began to get
8 B. Li

involved in the Middle East by directly dispatching troops to Syria to help maintain
stability, which led to the failure of Western attempts to overturn the Assad regime.
No actions are as tough as this after the end of the Cold War.
China’s strategic initiative is also unprecedented, but it does not resort to military
actions. More specifically, China is actively coping with the strategic containment of
the West in its surrounding areas. And it is shaping new mechanisms to jump out of
the established framework dominated by the West, which is reflected by the Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Since
the US formally proposed the “Pivot to Asia” strategy in 2012, it has begun to regard
China as its potential largest strategic opponent, and gradually shift its strategic
focus to Asia. In addition to stepping up its military alliance against China, the US
has also joined hands with Japan to stir up and intensify disputes over territorial
waters between some countries and China, to strategically provent China’s influence
in the Asia–Pacific region. But these threats have been handled by China step by step
since 2016. China’s most important diplomatic achievement after 2008 is to jump
out of the economic framework originally created and dominated by the West, and
to shape its own unique political and economic mechanisms. AIIB and BRI are two
typical examples in this regard. These efforts are preparing China to lead the new
international division of labor.
There are many other similar unconventional events after 2008, such as the refugee
crisis in Europe, the US non-compliance with international treaties and withdrawal
from international organizations, and the rise of protectionism and nationalism, etc.
This highlights a fact that neo-liberalism is waning, and the international power
structure is changing once again. This also reflects the decline of neo-liberalism and
Western powers and the rise of China and other non-Western powers. The declining
Western powers find it hard to effectively restrict non-Western countries including
Russia. Therefore, the world has been going through a transformation since 2008.
More specifically, the liberal order dominated by the West is in decline, so are the
Western powers behind this order. In the meantime, emerging powers, especially
China, are moving from the edge of the world stage to the center. This is indeed a
once-in-a-century transformation for China who has been a sideliner since the Opium
War. Although this situation began to improve in 1949, China didn’t truly move to
the center of the world stage until 2008. This is the result of neo-liberalism in crisis,
and certainly China’s own efforts.
However, we must recognize that the capitalist nature of global system remains
unchanged, which means the world is still essentially dominated by capitalism.
According to the above data, capitalist powers are still dominating the international
division of labor and jointly influencing global economy. China alone is unable
to change this situation. Therefore, the current change still reflects “a moderately
paced history, a history in which powers are realigned and combined”. This change
is neither as frenetic as the European revolution triggered by the French Revolution,
nor as overwhelming as the world revolution caused by Russia’s October Revolution.
In this change, an Eastern power is approaching the center of the world stage with
a unique system that is not completely accepted by the orthodox capitalist world
system. It has partly changed the international power structure that is still dominated
Once-in-a-Century Transformation and the World Order 9

by major capitalist countries. In this change, an order that has been considered to bring
freedom, security and prosperity to the world is at stake. This change is different from
both the French Revolution that overturned autocracy and pushed Europe towards
republic, and the October Revolution that brought uprising to the world to replace
the capitalist system with the proletarian dictatorship of the Soviet. In this context,
the prevailing system paradigm remains unchanged, which is economically private
and market-oriented and politically Western democratic. The existing paradigm is
not reshaped by an alternative, like what happened in the French Revolution or the
October Revolution. More importantly, this major change is not the start pointing of
the world communist order (some people combine “a community with a shared future
for mankind” with “a community of free individuals” proposed by Marx, which is
absolutly a misunderstanding of “a community with a shared future for mankind”).
Before the advent of an alternative order, there will be a “longue durée” change that
cannot be measured. During this transformation, a non-capitalist country in the East
is rising to a world power. The crisis of neo-liberalism has given this Eastern country
an unprecedented opportunity to participate in global governance and shine at the
center of the international arena. However, the influence of its rise is not enough to
change the structure and nature of the world yet. That’s why the change reflects “a
moderately paced history, a history in which powers are realigned and combined”.

3 Major Change, World Order and China’s Role

As a result of change, the world order is in crisis, with a new world power emerging
at the center of the world stage. However, this power is not strong enough at the
moment to transform the political and economic attributes of the world system,
because its political and economic foundation needs to be improved, while the incum-
bents still have solid economic and social foundation. Under this circumstance, all
major powers, old or new, will strive to reshape a world order in their own direction.
Historical experience shows that crises and balance of power are always followed
by changes in the world order. But such changes do not necessarily promote the
world order in the direction of stability, justice and progress. The real changes in the
world order come from the fundamental social changes driven by the way production
is organized, which have not yet occurred. From the above analysis, the current
situation only reflects some adjustment of the balance of power. Capitalist powers
still play an important role in the world’s political economy. This change implying
“a moderately paced history in which powers are realigned and combined” has not
shaken the material basis of the entire capitalist system economically. Here is a brief
historical review of global changes in the past century.
A century ago, an unprecedented crisis hit the capitalist world, leading to the
collapse of the laissez-faire capitalist order of the nineteenth century. World War I
and the Great Depression brought major opportunities for the world revolution and
the Bolshevik Revolution. But the world revolution did not keep going smoothly. In a
worldwide capitalist crisis, various forces raced to transform and create a new order
10 B. Li

in their interest. Fascism, which originated in Italy, began to spread in the world, and
gradually formed an extreme force to transform the world order in Germany, Italy and
Japan. Meanwhile, Britain and America were shaping a force to reform capitalism
worldwide. Another force centered on the Soviet Union was also seeking to change
the world order, but after suffering some setbacks in spreading revolution across the
world, it shifted the focus to “building socialism in its own country”. The competition
for the world order among the above three forces ended up with the end of World
War II. In the subsequent institutional competition, the world split into two blocs: the
capitalist one led by the US and the socialist one led by the Soviet Union. The former
was characterized by an “embedded liberalism” order and the latter by the Soviet
“central planning”, with the former dominating most part of the world. Although the
postwar capitalist order did better in social equity than the laissez-faire order, the
functions of state intervention and international coordination guaranteed the devel-
opment of world capitalism. The Soviet system did make remarkable progress and
grow stronger after the war. However, in the context of world capitalism, it failed
to reform in a timely and effective manner to fundamentally enhance productivity,
hence leading to a crisis of world communist movement. The experience and lessons
in the past century show us that history is not developing in a linear fashion, and
crises and changes in power structure only provide opportunities, rather than natu-
rally lead to progressive development. Whenever the history was at a turning point,
there would be leaders from various forces to push forward institutional innovation
by proposing and practicing their policies and institutional ideas. They won people’s
support and guided the world to advance in the right direction.
There are some similarities between the current change and the one a century
ago. Today’s world order based on neo-liberalism is also experiencing an unprece-
dented crisis. There are some major changes in the international structures of power.
Emerging powers represented by China are approaching the center of the world stage,
but this cannot guarantee progressive changes in history. The world after the 2008
financial crisis is undergoing transformation characterized by instability, making
it difficult to determine the future direction. Major powers are also preparing for
institutional reform and working towards a new world order.
Now there are two trends emerging in the West. First, the right-wing extremist
forces represented by Trump (including some far-right forces in Western Europe) are
leveraging populism and nationalism to impact the tradition liberalism, in an attempt
to reshape the world order. This order will be built on extreme nationalism and the
“America First” privilege to ensure that the US can continue to lead the world and
handle a rising China. The force behind this is the traditional white class impacted
economically and culturally in economic globalization. They are seeking to maintain
their traditional status in this way.
Second, Western intellectual and political elites are hoping to reshape a world
order based on “re-embedded liberalism”. Munich Security Report 2017, a flagship
publication of the Munich Security Conference, is entitled “Post-Truth, Post-West,
Post-Order”, which is a typical example of the “re-embedded liberalism” pattern.
This voice can also be heard in Western civil society. At the Annual Conference
2017 of American Political Science Association, David Lake made his inaugural
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