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Copyright 2019 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. WCN 02-200-203
Business Analytics
Third Edition
Jeffrey D. Camm James J. Cochran

Wake Forest University University of Alabama
Michael J. Fry Jeffrey W. Ohlmann

University of Cincinnati University of Iowa
David R. Anderson Dennis J. Sweeney Thomas A. Williams

University of Cincinnati University of Cincinnati Rochester Institute
of Technology
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Brief Contents
ABOUT THE AUTHORS XIX
PREFACE XXIII
CHAPTER 1 Introduction 2
CHAPTER 2 Descriptive Statistics 18
CHAPTER 3 Data Visualization 82
CHAPTER 4 Descriptive Data Mining 138
CHAPTER 5 Probability: An Introduction to Modeling Uncertainty 166
CHAPTER 6 Statistical Inference 220
CHAPTER 7 Linear Regression 294
CHAPTER 8 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting 372
CHAPTER 9 Predictive Data Mining 422
CHAPTER 10 Spreadsheet Models 464
CHAPTER 11 Monte Carlo Simulation 500
CHAPTER 12 Linear Optimization Models 556
CHAPTER 13 Integer Linear Optimization Models 606
CHAPTER 14 Nonlinear Optimization Models 646
CHAPTER 15 Decision Analysis 678
APPENDIX A Basics of Excel 724
APPENDIX B Database Basics with Microsoft Access 736
APPENDIX C Solutions to Even-Numbered Questions (MindTap Reader)
REFERENCES 774
INDEX 776
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Contents
Contents
ABOUT THE AUTHORS XIX
PREFACE XXIII
CHAPTER 1 Introduction 2
1.1 Decision Making 4
1.2 Business Analytics Defined 5
1.3 A Categorization of Analytical Methods and Models 6
Descriptive Analytics 6
Predictive Analytics 6
Prescriptive Analytics 7
1.4 Big Data 7
Volume 9
Velocity 9
Variety 9
Veracity 9
1.5 Business Analytics in Practice 11
Financial Analytics 11
Human Resource (HR) Analytics 12
Marketing Analytics 12
Health Care Analytics 12
Supply-Chain Analytics 13
Analytics for Government and Nonprofits 13
Sports Analytics 13
Web Analytics 14
Summary 14
Glossary 15
CHAPTER 2 Descriptive Statistics 18

Analytics in Action: U.S. Census Bureau 19
2.1 Overview of Using Data: Definitions and Goals 19
2.2 Types of Data 21
Population and Sample Data 21
Quantitative and Categorical Data 21
Cross-Sectional and Time Series Data 21
Sources of Data 21
2.3 Modifying Data in Excel 24
Sorting and Filtering Data in Excel 24
Conditional Formatting of Data in Excel 27
2.4 Creating Distributions from Data 29
Frequency Distributions for Categorical Data 29
Relative Frequency and Percent Frequency Distributions 30
Frequency Distributions for Quantitative Data 31
Histograms 34
Cumulative Distributions 37
viii Contents
2.5 Measures of Location 39
Mean (Arithmetic Mean) 39
Median 40
Mode 41
Geometric Mean 41
2.6 Measures of Variability 44
Range 44
Variance 45
Standard Deviation 46
Coefficient of Variation 47
2.7 Analyzing Distributions 47
Percentiles 48
Quartiles 49
z-Scores 49
Empirical Rule 50
Identifying Outliers 52
Box Plots 52
2.8 Measures of Association Between Two Variables 55
Scatter Charts 55
Covariance 57
Correlation Coefficient 60
2.9 Data Cleansing 61
Missing Data 61
Blakely Tires 63
Identification of Erroneous Outliers and Other Erroneous
Values 65
Variable Representation 67
Summary 68
Glossary 69
Problems 71
Case Problem: Heavenly Chocolates Web Site Transactions 79
Appendix 2.1 Creating Box Plots with Analytic Solver (MindTap Reader)
CHAPTER 3 Data Visualization 82

Analytics in Action: Cincinnati Zoo & Botanical Garden 83
3.1 Overview of Data Visualization 85
Effective Design Techniques 85
3.2 Tables 88
Table Design Principles 89
Crosstabulation 90
PivotTables in Excel 93
Recommended PivotTables in Excel 97
3.3 Charts 99
Scatter Charts 99
Recommended Charts in Excel 101
Contents ix
Line Charts 102

Bar Charts and Column Charts 106
A Note on Pie Charts and Three-Dimensional Charts 107
Bubble Charts 109
Heat Maps 110
Additional Charts for Multiple Variables 112
PivotCharts in Excel 115
3.4 Advanced Data Visualization 117
Advanced Charts 117
Geographic Information Systems Charts 120
3.5 Data Dashboards 122
Principles of Effective Data Dashboards 123
Applications of Data Dashboards 123
Summary 125
Glossary 125
Problems 126
Case Problem: All-Time Movie Box-Office Data 136
Appendix 3.1 Creating a Scatter-Chart Matrix and a Parallel-Coordinates
Plot with Analytic Solver (MindTap Reader)
CHAPTER 4 Descriptive Data Mining 138

Analytics in Action: Advice from a Machine 139
4.1 Cluster Analysis 140
Measuring Similarity Between Observations 140
Hierarchical Clustering 143
k-Means Clustering 146
Hierarchical Clustering versus k-Means Clustering 147
4.2 Association Rules 148
Evaluating Association Rules 150
4.3 Text Mining 151
Voice of the Customer at Triad Airline 151
Preprocessing Text Data for Analysis 153
Movie Reviews 154
Summary 155
Glossary 155
Problems 156
Case Problem: Know Thy Customer 164
Available in the MindTap Reader:
Appendix 4.1 Hierarchical Clustering with Analytic Solver
Appendix 4.2 k-Means Clustering with Analytic Solver
Appendix 4.3 Association Rules with Analytic Solver
Appendix 4.4 Text Mining with Analytic Solver
Appendix 4.5 Opening and Saving Excel files in JMP Pro
Appendix 4.6 Hierarchical Clustering with JMP Pro
x Contents
Appendix 4.7 k-Means Clustering with JMP Pro

Appendix 4.8 Association Rules with JMP Pro
Appendix 4.9 Text Mining with JMP Pro
CHAPTER 5 Probability: An Introduction to

Modeling Uncertainty 166
Analytics in Action: National Aeronautics and Space Administration 167
5.1 Events and Probabilities 168
5.2 Some Basic Relationships of Probability 169
Complement of an Event 169
Addition Law 170
5.3 Conditional Probability 172
Independent Events 177
Multiplication Law 177
Bayes’ Theorem 178
5.4 Random Variables 180
Discrete Random Variables 180
Continuous Random Variables 181
5.5 Discrete Probability Distributions 182
Custom Discrete Probability Distribution 182
Expected Value and Variance 184
Discrete Uniform Probability Distribution 187
Binomial Probability Distribution 188
Poisson Probability Distribution 191
5.6 Continuous Probability Distributions 194
Uniform Probability Distribution 194
Triangular Probability Distribution 196
Normal Probability Distribution 198
Exponential Probability Distribution 203
Summary 207
Glossary 207
Problems 209
Case Problem: Hamilton County Judges 218
CHAPTER 6 Statistical Inference 220

Analytics in Action: John Morrell & Company 221
6.1 Selecting a Sample 223
Sampling from a Finite Population 223
Sampling from an Infinite Population 224
6.2 Point Estimation 227
Practical Advice 229
6.3 Sampling Distributions 229
Sampling Distribution of x 232
Sampling Distribution of p 237
Contents xi
6.4 Interval Estimation 240

Interval Estimation of the Population Mean 240
Interval Estimation of the Population Proportion 247
6.5 Hypothesis Tests 250
Developing Null and Alternative Hypotheses 250
Type I and Type II Errors 253
Hypothesis Test of the Population Mean 254
Hypothesis Test of the Population Proportion 265
6.6 Big Data, Statistical Inference, and Practical Significance 268
Sampling Error 268
Nonsampling Error 269
Big Data 270
Understanding What Big Data Is 271
Big Data and Sampling Error 272
Big Data and the Precision of Confidence Intervals 273
Implications of Big Data for Confidence Intervals 274
Big Data, Hypothesis Testing, and p Values 275
Implications of Big Data in Hypothesis Testing 277
Summary 278
Glossary 279
Problems 281
Case Problem 1: Young Professional Magazine 291
Case Problem 2: Quality Associates, Inc 292
CHAPTER 7 Linear Regression 294

Analytics in Action: Alliance Data Systems 295
7.1 Simple Linear Regression Model 296
Regression Model 296
Estimated Regression Equation 296
7.2 Least Squares Method 298
Least Squares Estimates of the Regression Parameters 300
Using Excel’s Chart Tools to Compute the Estimated
Regression Equation 302
7.3 Assessing the Fit of the Simple Linear Regression Model 304
The Sums of Squares 304
The Coefficient of Determination 306
Using Excel’s Chart Tools to Compute the Coefficient
of Determination 307
7.4 The Multiple Regression Model 308
Estimated Multiple Regression Equation 308
Least Squares Method and Multiple Regression 309
Butler Trucking Company and Multiple Regression 310
Using Excel’s Regression Tool to Develop the Estimated Multiple
Regression Equation 310
xii Contents
7.5 Inference and Regression 313

Conditions Necessary for Valid Inference in the Least Squares
Testing Individual Regression Parameters 318
Addressing Nonsignificant Independent Variables 321
Multicollinearity 322
7.6 Categorical Independent Variables 325
Butler Trucking Company and Rush Hour 325
Interpreting the Parameters 327
More Complex Categorical Variables 328
7.7 Modeling Nonlinear Relationships 330
Quadratic Regression Models 331
Piecewise Linear Regression Models 335
Interaction Between Independent Variables 337
7.8 Model Fitting 342
Variable Selection Procedures 342
Overfitting 343
7.9 Big Data and Regression 344
Inference and Very Large Samples 344
Model Selection 348
7.10 Prediction with Regression 349
Summary 351
Glossary 352
Problems 354
Case Problem: Alumni Giving 369
Appendix 7.1 Regression with Analytic Solver (MindTap Reader)
CHAPTER 8 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting 372

Analytics in Action: ACCO Brands 373
8.1 Time Series Patterns 375
Horizontal Pattern 375
Trend Pattern 377
Seasonal Pattern 378
Trend and Seasonal Pattern 379
Cyclical Pattern 382
Identifying Time Series Patterns 382
8.2 Forecast Accuracy 382
8.3 Moving Averages and Exponential Smoothing 386
Moving Averages 387
Exponential Smoothing 391
8.4 Using Regression Analysis for Forecasting 395
Linear Trend Projection 395
Seasonality Without Trend 397
Seasonality with Trend 398
Using Regression Analysis as a Causal Forecasting Method 401
Contents xiii
Combining Causal Variables with Trend and Seasonality Effects 404

Considerations in Using Regression in Forecasting 405
8.5 Determining the Best Forecasting Model to Use 405
Summary 406
Glossary 406
Problems 407
Case Problem: Forecasting Food and Beverage Sales 415
Appendix 8.1 Using the Excel Forecast Sheet 416
Appendix 8.2 Forecasting with Analytic Solver (MindTap Reader)
CHAPTER 9 Predictive Data Mining 422

Analytics in Action: Orbitz 423
9.1 Data Sampling, Preparation, and Partitioning 424
9.2 Performance Measures 425
Evaluating the Classification of Categorical Outcomes 425
Evaluating the Estimation of Continuous Outcomes 431
9.3 Logistic Regression 432
9.4 k-Nearest Neighbors 436
Classifying Categorical Outcomes with k-Nearest Neighbors 436
Estimating Continuous Outcomes with k-Nearest Neighbors 438
9.5 Classification and Regression Trees 439
Classifying Categorical Outcomes with a Classification Tree 439
Estimating Continuous Outcomes with a Regression Tree 445
Ensemble Methods 446
Summary 449
Glossary 450
Problems 452
Case Problem: Grey Code Corporation 462
Appendix 9.1 Data Partitioning with Analytic Solver
Appendix 9.2 Logistic Regression Classification with Analytic Solver
Appendix 9.3 k-Nearest Neighbor Classification and Estimation with
Analytic Solver
Appendix 9.4 Single Classification and Regression Trees with
Analytic Solver
Appendix 9.5 Random Forests of Classification or Regression Trees with
Analytic Solver
Appendix 9.6 Data Partitioning with JMP Pro
Appendix 9.7 Logistic Regression Classification with JMP Pro
Appendix 9.8 k-Nearest Neighbor Classification and Estimation with
JMP Pro
Appendix 9.9 Single Classification and Regression Trees with JMP Pro
Appendix 9.10 Random Forests of Classification and Regression Trees
with JMP Pro
xiv Contents
CHAPTER 10 Spreadsheet Models 464

Analytics in Action: Procter & Gamble 465
10.1 Building Good Spreadsheet Models 466
Influence Diagrams 466
Building a Mathematical Model 466
Spreadsheet Design and Implementing
the Model in a Spreadsheet 468
10.2 What-If Analysis 471
Data Tables 471
Goal Seek 473
Scenario Manager 475
10.3 Some Useful Excel Functions for Modeling 480
SUM and SUMPRODUCT 481
IF and COUNTIF 483
VLOOKUP 485
10.4 Auditing Spreadsheet Models 487
Trace Precedents and Dependents 487
Show Formulas 487
Evaluate Formulas 489
Error Checking 489
Watch Window 490
10.5 Predictive and Prescriptive Spreadsheet Models 491
Summary 492
Glossary 492
Problems 493
Case Problem: Retirement Plan 499
CHAPTER 11 Monte Carlo Simulation 500

Analytics in Action: Polio Eradication 501
11.1 Risk Analysis for Sanotronics LLC 502
Base-Case Scenario 502
Worst-Case Scenario 503
Best-Case Scenario 503
Sanotronics Spreadsheet Model 503
Use of Probability Distributions to Represent Random
Variables 504
Generating Values for Random Variables with Excel 506
Executing Simulation Trials with Excel 510
Measuring and Analyzing Simulation Output 510
11.2 Simulation Modeling for Land Shark Inc. 514
Spreadsheet Model for Land Shark 515
Generating Values for Land Shark’s Random Variables 517
Executing Simulation Trials and Analyzing Output 519
Generating Bid Amounts with Fitted Distributions 522
11.3 Simulation with Dependent Random Variables 527
Spreadsheet Model for Press Teag Worldwide 527
Contents xv
11.4 Simulation Considerations 532

Verification and Validation 532
Advantages and Disadvantages of Using Simulation 532
Summary 533
Glossary 534
Problems 534
Case Problem: Four Corners 547
Appendix 11.1 Common Probability Distributions for Simulation 549
Appendix 11.2 Land Shark Inc. Simulation with Analytic Solver
Appendix 11.3 Distribution Fitting with Analytic Solver
Appendix 11.4 Correlating Random Variables with Analytic Solver
Appendix 11.5 Simulation Optimization with Analytic Solver
CHAPTER 12 Linear Optimization Models 556

Analytics in Action: General Electric 557
12.1 A Simple Maximization Problem 558
Problem Formulation 559
Mathematical Model for the Par, Inc. Problem 561
12.2 Solving the Par, Inc. Problem 561
The Geometry of the Par, Inc. Problem 562
Solving Linear Programs with Excel Solver 564
12.3 A Simple Minimization Problem 568
Problem Formulation 568
Solution for the M&D Chemicals Problem 568
12.4 Special Cases of Linear Program Outcomes 570
Alternative Optimal Solutions 571
Infeasibility 572
Unbounded 573
12.5 Sensitivity Analysis 575
Interpreting Excel Solver Sensitivity Report 575
12.6 General Linear Programming Notation
and More Examples 577
Investment Portfolio Selection 578
Transportation Planning 580
Advertising Campaign Planning 584
12.7 Generating an Alternative Optimal Solution
for a Linear Program 589
Summary 591
Glossary 592
Problems 593
Case Problem: Investment Strategy 604
Appendix 12.1 Solving Linear Optimization Models Using
Analytic Solver (MindTap Reader)
xvi Contents
CHAPTER 13 Integer Linear Optimization Models 606

Analytics in Action: Petrobras 607
13.1 Types of Integer Linear Optimization Models 607
13.2 Eastborne Realty, an Example of Integer Optimization 608
The Geometry of Linear All-Integer Optimization 609
13.3 Solving Integer Optimization Problems with Excel Solver 611
A Cautionary Note About Sensitivity Analysis 614
13.4 Applications Involving Binary Variables 616
Capital Budgeting 616
Fixed Cost 618
Bank Location 621
Product Design and Market Share Optimization 623
13.5 Modeling Flexibility Provided by Binary Variables 626
Multiple-Choice and Mutually Exclusive Constraints 626
k Out of n Alternatives Constraint 627
Conditional and Corequisite Constraints 627
13.6 Generating Alternatives in Binary Optimization 628
Summary 630
Glossary 631
Problems 632
Case Problem: Applecore Children’s Clothing 643
Appendix 13.1 Solving Integer Linear Optimization Problems Using
Analytic Solver (MindTap Reader)
CHAPTER 14 Nonlinear Optimization Models 646

Analytics in Action: InterContinental Hotels 647
14.1 A Production Application: Par, Inc. Revisited 647
An Unconstrained Problem 647
A Constrained Problem 648
Solving Nonlinear Optimization Models Using Excel Solver 650
Sensitivity Analysis and Shadow Prices in Nonlinear Models 651
14.2 Local and Global Optima 652
Overcoming Local Optima with Excel Solver 655
14.3 A Location Problem 657
14.4 Markowitz Portfolio Model 658
14.5 Forecasting Adoption of a New Product 663
Summary 666
Glossary 667
Problems 667
Case Problem: Portfolio Optimization with Transaction Costs 675
Appendix 14.1 Solving Nonlinear Optimization Problems with Analytic
Solver (MindTap Reader)
Contents xvii
CHAPTER 15 Decision Analysis 678

Analytics in Action: Phytopharm 679
15.1 Problem Formulation 680
Payoff Tables 681
Decision Trees 681
15.2 Decision Analysis without Probabilities 682
Optimistic Approach 682
Conservative Approach 683
Minimax Regret Approach 683
15.3 Decision Analysis with Probabilities 685
Expected Value Approach 685
Risk Analysis 687
Sensitivity Analysis 688
15.4 Decision Analysis with Sample Information 689
Expected Value of Sample Information 694
Expected Value of Perfect Information 694
15.5 Computing Branch Probabilities with Bayes’ Theorem 695
15.6 Utility Theory 698
Utility and Decision Analysis 699
Utility Functions 703
Exponential Utility Function 706
Summary 708
Glossary 708
Problems 710
Case Problem: Property Purchase Strategy 721
Appendix 15.1 Using Analytic Solver to Create Decision Trees
(MindTap Reader)
APPENDIX A Basics of Excel 724
APPENDIX B Database Basics with Microsoft Access 736
APPENDIX C Solutions to Even-Numbered Questions (MindTap Reader)
REFERENCES 774
INDEX 776
About the Authors
Jeffrey D. Camm. Jeffrey D. Camm is the Inmar Presidential Chair and Associate Dean of
Analytics in the School of Business at Wake Forest University. Born in Cincinnati, Ohio, he
holds a B.S. from Xavier University (Ohio) and a Ph.D. from Clemson University. Prior to
joining the faculty at Wake Forest, he was on the faculty of the University of Cincinnati. He
has also been a visiting scholar at Stanford University and a visiting professor of business
administration at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College.
Dr. Camm has published over 35 papers in the general area of optimization applied
to problems in operations management and marketing. He has published his research in
Science, Management Science, Operations Research, Interfaces, and other professional
journals. Dr. Camm was named the Dornoff Fellow of Teaching Excellence at the Univer-
sity of Cincinnati and he was the 2006 recipient of the INFORMS Prize for the Teaching of
Operations Research Practice. A firm believer in practicing what he preaches, he has served
as an analytics consultant to numerous companies and government agencies. From 2005
to 2010 he served as editor-in-chief of Interfaces. In 2016, Dr. Camm was awarded the
Kimball Medal for service to the operations research profession and in 2017 he was named
an INFORMS Fellow.
James J. Cochran. James J. Cochran is Associate Dean for Research, Professor of Applied
Statistics, and the Rogers-Spivey Faculty Fellow at the University of Alabama. Born in Day-
ton, Ohio, he earned his B.S., M.S., and M.B.A. degrees from Wright State University and a
Ph.D. from the University of Cincinnati. He has been at the University of Alabama since 2014
and has been a visiting scholar at Stanford University, Universidad de Talca, the University
of South Africa, and Pole Universitaire Leonard de Vinci.
Professor Cochran has published over three dozen papers in the development and
application of operations research and statistical methods. He has published his research
in Management Science, The American Statistician, Communications in Statistics—Theory
and Methods, Annals of Operations Research, European Journal of Operational Research,
Journal of Combinatorial Optimization. Interfaces, Statistics and Probability Letters, and
other professional journals. He was the 2008 recipient of the INFORMS Prize for the
Teaching of Operations Research Practice and the 2010 recipient of the Mu Sigma Rho
Statistical Education Award. Professor Cochran was elected to the International Statistics
Institute in 2005 and named a Fellow of the American Statistical Association in 2011 and a
Fellow of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)
in 2017. He also received the Founders Award in 2014, the Karl E. Peace Award in 2015,
and the Waller Distinguished Teaching Career Award in 2017 from the American Statistical
Association. A strong advocate for effective operations research and statistics education as
a means of improving the quality of applications to real problems, Professor Cochran has
organized and chaired teaching effectiveness workshops in Montevideo, Uruguay; Cape
Town, South Africa; Cartagena, Colombia; Jaipur, India; Buenos Aires, Argentina; Nairobi,
Kenya; Buea, C ameroon; Suva, Fiji; Kathmandu, Nepal; Osijek, Croatia; Havana, Cuba;
Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia; and Chişinău, Moldova. He has served as an operations research
consultant to numerous companies and not-for-profit organizations. He served as editor-
in-chief of INFORMS Transactions on E ducation from 2006 to 2012 and is on the editorial
board of Interfaces, International Transactions in Operational Research, and Significance.
Michael J. Fry. Michael J. Fry is Professor and Head of the Department of Operations,
Business Analytics, and Information Systems in the Carl H. Lindner College of Business
at the University of Cincinnati. Born in Killeen, Texas, he earned a B.S. from Texas A&M
University, and M.S.E. and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Michigan. He has been
xx About the Authors
at the University of Cincinnati since 2002, where he has been named a Lindner Research
Fellow and has served as Assistant Director and Interim Director of the Center for Business
Analytics. He has also been a visiting professor at Cornell University and at the University
of British Columbia.
Professor Fry has published over 20 research papers in journals such as Operations
Research, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, Transportation Science, Naval
Research Logistics, IIE Transactions, and Interfaces. His research interests are in applying
quantitative management methods to the areas of supply chain analytics, sports analytics, and
public-policy operations. He has worked with many different organizations for his research,
including Dell, Inc., Copeland Corporation, Starbucks Coffee Company, Great American
Insurance Group, the Cincinnati Fire Department, the State of Ohio Election Commission, the
Cincinnati Bengals, and the Cincinnati Zoo. In 2008, he was named a finalist for the Daniel
H. Wagner Prize for Excellence in Operations Research Practice, and he has been recognized
for both his research and teaching excellence at the University of Cincinnati.
Jeffrey W. Ohlmann. Jeffrey W. Ohlmann is Associate Professor of Management Sciences

and Huneke Research Fellow in the Tippie College of Business at the University of Iowa.
Born in Valentine, Nebraska, he earned a B.S. from the University of Nebraska, and M.S.
and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Michigan. He has been at the University of Iowa
since 2003.
Professor Ohlmann’s research on the modeling and solution of decision-making problems
has produced over 20 research papers in journals such as Operations Research, Mathematics
of Operations Research, INFORMS Journal on Computing, Transportation Science, E uropean
Journal of Operational Research, and Interfaces. He has collaborated with companies
such as Transfreight, LeanCor, Cargill, the Hamilton County Board of Elections, and three
National Football League franchises. Due to the relevance of his work to industry, he was
bestowed the George B. Dantzig Dissertation Award and was recognized as a finalist for the
Daniel H. Wagner Prize for Excellence in Operations Research Practice.
David R. Anderson. David R. Anderson is Professor Emeritus of Quantitative Analysis in

the Carl H. Lindner College of Business at the University of Cincinnati. Born in Grand Forks,
North Dakota, he earned his B.S., M.S., and Ph.D. degrees from Purdue University. Professor
Anderson has served as Head of the Department of Quantitative Analysis and Operations
Management and as Associate Dean of the College of Business Administration. In addition,
he was the coordinator of the College’s first Executive Program.
At the University of Cincinnati, Professor Anderson has taught introductory statistics
for business students as well as graduate-level courses in regression analysis, multivariate
analysis, and management science. He has also taught statistical courses at the Department of
Labor in Washington, D.C. He has been honored with nominations and awards for excellence
in teaching and excellence in service to student organizations.
Professor Anderson has coauthored 10 textbooks in the areas of statistics, management
science, linear programming, and production and operations management. He is an active
consultant in the field of sampling and statistical methods.
Dennis J. Sweeney. Dennis J. Sweeney is Professor Emeritus of Quantitative Analysis and

Founder of the Center for Productivity Improvement at the University of Cincinnati. Born in
Des Moines, Iowa, he earned a B.S.B.A. degree from Drake University and his M.B.A. and
D.B.A. degrees from Indiana University, where he was an NDEA Fellow. During 1978–1979,
Professor Sweeney worked in the management science group at Procter & Gamble; during
1981–1982, he was a visiting professor at Duke University. Professor Sweeney served as
Head of the Department of Quantitative Analysis and as Associate Dean of the College of
Business Administration at the University of Cincinnati.
About the Authors xxi
Professor Sweeney has published more than 30 articles and monographs in the areas
of management science and statistics. The National Science Foundation, IBM, Procter &
Gamble, Federated Department Stores, Kroger, and Cincinnati Gas & Electric have funded
his research, which has been published in Management Science, Operations Research, Math-
ematical Programming, Decision Sciences, and other journals.
Professor Sweeney has coauthored 10 textbooks in the areas of statistics, management
science, linear programming, and production and operations management.
Thomas A. Williams. Thomas A. Williams is Professor Emeritus of Management Science

in the College of Business at Rochester Institute of Technology. Born in Elmira, New York,
he earned his B.S. degree at Clarkson University. He did his graduate work at Rensselaer
Polytechnic Institute, where he received his M.S. and Ph.D. degrees.
Before joining the College of Business at RIT, Professor Williams served for seven years
as a faculty member in the College of Business Administration at the University of Cincinnati,
where he developed the undergraduate program in Information Systems and then served as
its coordinator. At RIT he was the first chairman of the Decision Sciences Department. He
teaches courses in management science and statistics, as well as graduate courses in regres-
sion and decision analysis.
Professor Williams is the coauthor of 11 textbooks in the areas of management science,
statistics, production and operations management, and mathematics. He has been a consultant
for numerous Fortune 500 companies and has worked on projects ranging from the use of
data analysis to the development of large-scale regression models.
Preface
B usiness Analytics 3E is designed to introduce the concept of business analytics to under-
graduate and graduate students. This textbook contains one of the first collections of
materials that are essential to the growing field of business analytics. In Chapter 1 we present
an overview of business analytics and our approach to the material in this textbook. In simple
terms, business analytics helps business professionals make better decisions based on data.
We discuss models for summarizing, visualizing, and understanding useful information from
historical data in Chapters 2 through 6. Chapters 7 through 9 introduce methods for both gain-
ing insights from historical data and predicting possible future outcomes. Chapter 10 covers
the use of spreadsheets for examining data and building decision models. In Chapter 11, we
demonstrate how to explicitly introduce uncertainty into spreadsheet models through the use
of Monte Carlo simulation. In Chapters 12 through 14 we discuss optimization models to
help decision makers choose the best decision based on the available data. Chapter 15 is an
overview of decision analysis approaches for incorporating a decision maker’s views about
risk into decision making. In Appendix A we present optional material for students who need
to learn the basics of using Microsoft Excel. The use of databases and manipulating data in
Microsoft Access is discussed in Appendix B.
This textbook can be used by students who have previously taken a course on basic statisti-
cal methods as well as students who have not had a prior course in statistics. Business Analytics
3E is also amenable to a two-course sequence in business statistics and analytics. All statistical
concepts contained in this textbook are presented from a business analytics perspective using
practical business examples. Chapters 2, 5, 6, and 7 provide an introduction to basic statistical
concepts that form the foundation for more advanced analytics methods. Chapters 3, 4, and 9
cover additional topics of data visualization and data mining that are not traditionally part of
most introductory business statistics courses, but they are exceedingly important and commonly
used in current business environments. Chapter 10 and Appendix A provide the foundational
knowledge students need to use Microsoft Excel for analytics applications. Chapters 11 through
15 build upon this spreadsheet knowledge to present additional topics that are used by many
organizations that are leaders in the use of prescriptive analytics to improve decision making.
Updates in the Third Edition

The third edition of Business Analytics is a major revision. We have heavily modified our
data mining chapters to allow instructors to choose their preferred means of teaching this
material in terms of software usage. Chapters 4 and 9 now both contain conceptual homework
problems that can be solved by students without using any software. Additionally, we now
include online appendices on both Analytic Solver and JMP Pro as software for teaching data
mining so that instructors can choose their favored way of teaching this material. Chapter 4
also now includes a section on text mining, a fast-growing topic in business analytics. We
have moved our chapter on Monte Carlo simulation to Chapter 11, and we have completely
rewritten this chapter to greatly expand the material that can be covered using only native
Excel. Other changes in this edition include additional content on big-data concepts, data
cleansing, new data visualization topics in Excel, and additional homework problems.
●● Software Updates for Data Mining Chapters. Chapters 4 and 9 have received exten-
sive updates. The end-of-chapter problems are now written so that they can be solved
using any data-mining software. To allow instructors to choose different software for
use with these chapters, we have created online appendices for both Analytic Solver
and JMP Pro. Analytic Solver has undergone major changes since the previous edition
of this textbook. Therefore, we have reworked all examples, problems, and cases using
Analytic Solver Basic V2017, the version of this software now available to students.
We have created new appendices for Chapters 4 and 9 that introduce the use of JMP
Pro 13 for data mining. JMP Pro is a powerful software that is still easy to learn and
easy to use. We have also added five homework problems to Chapters 4 and 9 that can
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Lun̄ ḡei, Lugūnei The mouth.
Lun̄ ḡụn The voice.
Lüou A ring.
M
Māāb A door, a gate.
Māāi Foolish, a fool.
Māāp To stretch.
Machuri Take away.
Mad Clothing.
Madan̄ ḡadan̄ ḡ- Valiant.
kō-mal
Madthu To spit.
Madụs A tumor.
Mafeng To meet, to encounter.
Magagan Ugly.
Magal Fire-light, lamp-light.
Magar To become tired.
Magilao A bat.
Mak To tie, to fasten.
Makadkad A sharp taste.
Makef Inside the reefs, the lagoon.
Makil Sweet, sugar-cane.
Mal A wall.
Malabots Wild, savage.
Malad A wound.
Malaf Distance.
Malamal Idle, lazy.
Malamit Blind.
Malāng A stone, coral.
Maluk To bathe.
Man To go.
Manāng To know.
Mān̄ ḡā What?
Mān̄ ḡāfan Why?
Mān̄ ḡial When? At what time?
Mānigil Excellent, precious.
Marafā Neck-cord worn by adult women.
Mases Matches.
Matau Right hand.
Mathil Limit.
Matsalabok Clean, clear, pure.
Matsei To paint.
Matsem To become accustomed, a custom.
Matsitsi Mean, penurious.
Matsūri Hold up! Stop!
Mederek Separate, separable.
Meiōgō Wet.
Melik Dried, parsimonious.
Meloi To carve, to engrave.
Meluol An order, a command.
Merau Ripe cocoanuts.
Merup A shell for scraping taro.
Methir To burn, to light with fire.
Metsaf Money, riches.
Michibii To stand up.
Ming To break.
Min̄ ḡieng To chew.
Mil To flee, to escape.
Mini Who? Which?
Minimin Laughter.
Mininum By-and-by, wait a little.
Misilipik Corrhyza, a cold object.
Mispil A woman of the Failu.
Mit Class, form, manner.
Miṯẖ To hide.
Miṯẖemiṯẖ To move.
Mitri Lateness, delay.
Mitsibitsi Lashing tying together.
Mōgotrul Dark yellow.
Mōkụf A flower.
Mol To sleep, to lie down.
Mom Easy.
Mōmā Difficult.
Momau Difficult.
Momok A charm, incantation.
Mon First.
Mon̄ ḡol A woman of the Failu.
Mor Grass, bamboo.
Moriar To die.
Mororei Dry, crisp, arid.
Mororo A robber, thief.
Moruel Work, toil.
Mosul Mucus.
Mot A pit, a well, a hole.
Mu A canoe.
Mū To finish.
Mūfaned For you (plural).
Mūfanei For thee.
Mūfanū For you two.
Mūgūnin Bitter, sour.
Mụl To lose.
Mūrūbidi Dry, crisp.
Mūrūgil A dagger (of bamboo).
Mụs End, finish, conclusion.
Mụth A cut by a knife or axe.
Mūtrūbil A bachelor, unmarried person.
N
Nag To drag.
Nak To pardon.
Naun A house.
Ne (ni, nu) Of.
Nei Belly.
Neng Mosquito.
Nep Night.
Ν̄ḡa To (motion towards).
Ν̄ḡabut Toward below.
Ν̄ḡadafaned For us.
Ν̄ḡadafanou For us two.
Ν̄ḡak Him, her, it (acc.).
Ν̄ḡālāng Above (motion upwards).
Ν̄ḡālān̄ ḡin Toward the inside.
Ν̄ḡālen niga Molar teeth.
Ν̄ḡārā Thither.
Ν̄ḡārai Hither, toward here.
Ν̄ḡāram Toward yonder.
Ν̄ḡauen Toward the outside.
Ν̄ḡë To (infinitive mood), for the purpose of.
Ν̄ḡe dii Wherefore.
Ν̄ḡibots Spittle.
Ν̄ḡigak The elder; Ν̄ḡijik, the younger (of persons).
Ν̄ḡirin̄ ḡir Food which Yalafath provides in Falraman; it lasts forever.
Ν̄ḡōdad Us, to us (acc. or dat.).
Ν̄ḡōdou Us two.
Ν̄ḡok Me, to me (acc. or dat.).
Ν̄ḡol A shark.
Ν̄ḡom Thee, to thee (acc. or dat.).
Ν̄ḡōmad Us only, to us only (acc. or dat.).
Ν̄ḡōmed You, to you (plur. acc. or dat.).
Ν̄ḡōmou Us two only.
Ν̄ḡōmu You two, to you two (acc. or dat.).
Ν̄ḡon̄ ḡor Pineapple.
Ν̄ḡōrad Them, to them (acc. or dat.).
Ν̄ḡōrok To vomit.
Ν̄ḡōrou Them (two), to them (two) (acc. or dat.).
Ν̄ḡualen, Ν̄ḡuol A tooth.
Ν̄ḡūaleng A point.
Ν̄ḡūrụng-e-rek The chest.
Ν̄ḡụtsei A vein.
Ni If.
Nifel Good.
Nifeng The wind.
Nifi Fire, flint and steel.
Nigup Tobacco.
Nik Fish.
Ning To ask, to beg, to close.
Niu-u-keiru The backbone.
Niụng To plant.
Non To speak, to talk.
Non̄ ḡ To swim.
Nū Rain.
Nụf A sprout of a plant.
Nụm To drink.
Nụmen A fowl.
O
Oagon Home.
Oburei Hill.
Od To waken.
Ok To talk, to speak.
Olagui To sweep.
Olak Brother, friend, cousin.
Olum Cold.
Ong Woman’s skirt.
Orōporōpek Weak.
Orụr Rotten.
Oth To jump.
Otōfin Coal, charcoal.
Otōrel Far off.
Otsen Skein of thread, lock of hair.
Otsụp Coconut (soft).
Oụdi To squeeze out.
Ouol Centipede.
Outsen Seed.
P
Pabai Bachelor’s house (inland).
Pachijik Small.
Pak To leave.
Pan Grass.
Pān̄ ḡin A branch.
Papai Quick.
Patak Diligent.
Pau Banana.
Pei (or paei) The arm.
Pelis A dog.
Peluon Price, recompence.
Peluon kō, or Point at.
n̄ ḡa.
Pemon The chest.
Per To be.
Përë Forehead.
Pes To float.
Petan̄ ḡai To meet.
Pethụn̄ ḡui The nose.
Petsok Scissors.
Pi To give.
Pidōrang Beautiful (woman).
Pih Hair of head.
Pilun A chief.
Pimlin̄ ḡai A slave.
Pin A woman.
Pinfi Kitchen, house where women cook.
Pin̄ ḡek To turn around.
Pinning Call, summon.
Pir To sit.
Pirdi To pound, to break.
Piri Very, much.
Pirieiai Often.
Piṯẖik Untie.
Pitsanei These persons.
Pitsanem They, those persons yonder.
Pitsanir Those persons (near).
Pitsoai Handsome (man).
Poi Shoulder.
Pon Wing of a bird.
Pōok To flow, to spill.
Potson A tail.
Pụfeṯẖin An oath.
Pụl The moon.
Pụlo Entire.
Pumawn Man, male.
Pūpūan To argue, to dispute.
Purpur A hat.
Pụū Bamboo.
R
Raau To exceed, abundant.
Rabun̄ ḡek A cancer, a large sore.
Rafaned For them.
Rafanou For them (two).
Raiok Possible.
Rak Of me, my.
Ran Water (fresh).
Raurau Red.
Reb Also.
Rëen Colour.
Refun̄ ḡirich Knots used in lashing beams together.
Ren A tree, wood.
Ren̄ ḡren̄ ḡ Yellow, saffron used as cosmetic.
Ren̄ ḡren̄ ḡ Dark yellow, orange.
malalai.
Rif-e-rif The width of the hand, used in measurements.
Riul Truly, really.
Riul-ni-riul Positively.
Rob The beard.
Rōdad Of us, with us.
Rōdou Of us two.
Rōgobụg To kneel.
Rok Of him, his, her, its.
Rom Thy, thine, yours, of thee.
Rōmad Of us, or with us only.
Rōmed Of you, or with you.
Rōmou Of us, or with us.
Rōmu Of you (two), or with you (two).
Run̄ ḡak To hear.
Run̄ ḡidu Black, blue, green.
Run̄ ḡiu To love.
Rus Panic, to fear much.
S
Saban-e-ban Fraud, swindler.
Sabaut Light, not heavy.
Saṯẖaoṯẖ Slow.
Sawl Salt.
Seinian To take a walk.
Sesei To tear in strips.
Sōath Slowly.
Sōlap Skilful, intelligent.
Sōmening A lobster.
Sōrom You are right, that’s right.
Sūksụk dao Fat, corpulent.
Sul To return.
Sulun̄ ḡai Again, to repeat.
Sụmrūmōr Slanted, inclined.
Sunogōr Disgust, nausea.
Sụon Master.
Sūsụn Equally.
T
Tab One, the one.
Tabang Mixed.
Taban̄ ḡūin End, extremity.
Tabeṯẖung A right angle.
Tafen Property, kingdom.
Tafenai The soul, to think.
Taflai Doctor.
Tagalụl Shade.
Tagil Village.
Tagūil Place, position.
Tai To put, to place.
Tal A string.
Tali The ear.
Talibei Arm-pit, axilla.
Taliginai Throat, neck.
Taliu Burying ground.
Tam Funeral chant.
Tamadak To fear.
Tamako Tobacco.
Tamara Shame.
Tamaṯẖaṯẖ One or another, seldom.
Tamilang Smooth, flat.
Tan̄ ḡin Under, below.
Taoreng Love.
Taoromrom Flames.
Tapal Woman’s house.
Tapiung Low, low position.
Tar Excrement.
Tareb One.
Tareb arragon Like, as.
Tebil A sour fruit.
Ted Home.
Teliau A fillet of flowers.
Tẖam An out-rigger.
Tẖang To extinguish.
Tẖap Cut with a knife.
Tẖarami The sky.
Tẖauei Red shell necklace.
Tẖei The navel.
Tẖoath Slow.
Tẖik To throw down, to tumble.
Tẖinbots Order, command.
Tẖoi To blow.
Tẖū Waist cloth.
Tẖūak To take out of the mouth.
Tẖugal Bamboo fish weir.
Tẖuṯẖ The breast.
Tinei These (animals or things).
Tinem Those (animals or things) yonder.
Tinin̄ ḡan Which ones (animals or inanimate objects).
Tinir Those (animals or things).
Tinning To suspend.
Tir-ū-moro Pupil of eye, eyeball.
Tob Young coconut.
Tōgar Enemy.
Toi To chop, to strike.
Tōlolobei Butterfly.
Tolōmol The jungle.
Tolụk Centre, middle.
Tolul To scream, to cry.
Tōmal Heavy.
Tōmunemūn Food.
Tōmūr Last.
Tou Hatchet.
Tsabok A grave.
Tsagal A war-belt.
Tsam A wall, a combat.
Tsanem That, he, she, it.
Tsan̄ ḡar To see.
Tsanei This.
Tseb-e-tseb Curious.
Tsediri To-day.
Tseltsel Take a walk, to revolve, to roll.
Tsidiri Now, instantly.
Tsigii Roof.
Tsikinega This very large piece of.
Tsikinei This very small piece of.
Tsine Now.
Tsōgou Hot.
Tsop Mat of palm leaf.
Tsotsol A cough.
Tsrua Necklace.
Tsum Pig-sty, a filthy place.
Tsūrū A dance.
Tsūtsū To doze.
Tụf A star.
Tūgūi To hit with the fist.
Tūgūpiai Woman’s dancing belt.
Tūguru A bigamist.
Tūlāng To stand, to rise.
Tun̄ ḡin Grandfather, grandson.
Tun̄ ḡui To begin.
Tungun-e-ei Calf of leg.
U
Ū In.
Ūaman̄ ḡin Fruit.
Ūara There.
Ūaram Yonder.
Ūargon How, in what manner.
Ūathun̄ ḡin Eyebrow.
Ụb To come.
Ūbụt Below.
Ūbụtsia About to die.
Ūed Equally.
Ūeldụk A vegetable, a sown field.
Ūen Outside.
Ūerialen-e-ei The heel.
Ūerūer Separate, to separate.
Ūetch Lime.
Ūetsuma Brother-in-law.
Ūfin Flesh, meat.
Ūfūf Vain, a dandy.
Ūin When (past time).
Ụl A feather, leaf of cocoanut palm.
Ūlāng Above.
Ūlian Captain of a ship.
Ūlūlūpei The wrist, a doll.
Ūlūm Chilliness, internal cold.
Ūlụts A ray of light.
Ūlūūlek Order, discipline.
Ụmbụl Banana fibre mat.
Ụn To dress up.
Ūonū Long.
Ūots Dawn.
Ūotsrei The chin.
Ụp To sew.
Ụrgot A girl before puberty.
Ūriel The last.
Ūroi Here.
Ūrụkrụk To balance with the hand.
Ūrūn̄ ḡin Everywhere.
Ūūrn̄ ḡin-e-ran Every day.
Ụṯẖ White, like foam.
Ūtōlụk In the middle.
Ūū Where.
Ūūa A path.
Ūubụt From below.
Ūubụtōrel From far.
Ūubụtsūgụr From near.
Ūuen From outside.
Ūulāng From above.
Ūulān̄ ḡin From inside.
Ūurō Thence.
Ūuroi From here.
Ūurom From yonder.
V
Vetch-vetch White (like paper).
W
Wai Old fashioned betel basket of semi-circular shape.
Witandawei The skin.
Wū Betel nut.
Y
Ya Because.
Yad Those (yonder) persons.
Yai A tune.
Yalafath God of Creation.
Yan A soul.
Yap A paddle.
Yar Shell (mother-of-pearl).
Yār-ne-matsif Shell knife.
Yār-nu-betchrek Large shell money.
Yenen̄ ḡin Sister-in-law.
Yōmon ulun̄ ḡai The tongue.
Yū A palm tree.
Yūentali The ear (the outside ear).
Who art thou?—Igur Mini?
I am a man of Uap—Igak pumawn nu Uap.
What is thy name?—Mini fithin̄ ḡam igur?
My name is Lemet—Fithin̄ ḡak e Lemet.
Who is that man who is coming?—Mini e tsanir ni keb?
He is one of my brothers—Tareb Ōlakek.
What is your brother’s name?—Mini e fithin̄ ḡan ōlakem?
He is named Ronoboi—Fithin̄ ḡan e Ronoboi.
Whence dost thou come?—Mụb ūū?
Where do you (plural) come from?—M’bad ūū?
Where do you two come from?—M’bou ūū?
Where is that one coming from?—Keb ūū tsanem?
Where are they coming from?—R’bad ūū pitsanem?
I am coming from my house—-Gụp ū naun rak.
We are coming (or come) from Rul—Gụpad ū Rul.
We (two) come from the stream—Gụpou ū lul.
He is coming from the sea—Keb ū madai.
They come from a little island which is near—R’bad u tareb e
don̄ ḡots ni kabai bōtsugur.
Where art thou going alone?—Ν̄ḡa man e n̄ ḡan gōgūr?
Where are you going?—Ν̄ḡa maned e n̄ ḡan?
Where is he going?—Ν̄ḡa yane n̄ ḡan e tsanem?
Where are they going?—Ν̄ḡa ranöd n̄ ḡan e pitsanem?
I have come from the house and I go to Goror—Kōgụp ū naun, n̄ ḡe
gwan n̄ ḡa Goror.
We are going to the cemetery—Gwanad n̄ ḡa taliu.
He is going to fish—Tsanem këan kō fita.
Those people are going to see the plants—Pitsanem karanöd n̄ ḡe
kibots e ūelduk.
This one is not going because he is afraid—Tsanei dabiyan ya
tamadak.
Of whom art thou afraid?—Tatamadak kō mini?
I am very much afraid of the dead—Gūtamadak e piri ko iam.
What dost thou want?—Man̄ ḡa gadak?
I want nothing—Dāri Dāri!
I want water because I am thirsty—Gedak e ran ya kōgum n’ran.
What does he say?—Mān̄ ḡā baiok e tsanir?
What is the name of that?—Mān̄ ḡā fithin̄ ḡan tinei?
What is this for?—Mān̄ ḡā kaflak ka tinei?
Art thou alone or with others?—Gōgūr fa gūmed e boör?
Art thou alone or are there two?—Gōgūr fa gumou e bë?
We are many—Gōmad e boör.
We are two—Gōmou e bë.
I am going to sleep—Gwan n̄ ḡe gụtsūtsū.
Come thou—Moi n̄ ḡarai.
Come you two—Marrou n̄ ḡarai.
Come you—Marred n̄ ḡarai.
I do not know—Dakōnāng.
Call all the people—Pinning awning e gidi.
When wilt thou return?—Dain baimusūl?
UAP ISLAND. ENTRANCE ROCK, LAT. 9° 28′ 3″ N., LONG. 138° 4′ 46″ E.
INDEX
PAGE
Adoption 33
Armlets 66
Athegiths or ghosts 148
Bachelors’ Houses, Construction of 36
Banana-leaf mats 104, 151
“Bei” leaves 130
Bracelets 66
Burial position 176
Burial rites 162
Burying grounds 171
Cat’s-cradle 107, 112
Causes of illness 148
Colour perception 155
Combs 57
Copra 27
Costume 56
Counting 140
Creation legend 142
Dances 82
Drift of canoes 41
Ear-lobes, Slitting of 59
Ear-protectors 110
Ear-rings 61
Epileptics 148
European music, Appreciation of 70
Failu, A 36
Failu after a fishing expedition 43
Falraman (Heaven) 68, 147
Fatumak 126
Fatumak’s writing 139
Fei 93
Fire, Origin of 151
Fishing in open sea 38
Forbidden song of Failu 75
Fortune tellers 137
Fortune telling 130, 133
Funeral, A 164
Gods and Demons 149
Grave digging 172
Heaven (Falraman) 68, 147
High-born nobles 49
History of the Carolines 16
Houses, Construction of 22
Importation of Fei 100
Incantations 152
Inifel of Magachpa 63
Introduction of tattooing 159
Japanese poetry 80
Kakofel, daughter of Lian 108
Kitchens 110
Language of songs and incantations 77
Legend of creation 142
Lemet, a mispil 51
Lost Fei, The 96
Mach-mach or sorcery 152
Marafa,—a badge of puberty 123
Migiul, a mispil 124
Mispils 46
Mispils, Capture of 50
Money and currency 92
Moving pictures 83
Mutilations 59
Naming a child 153
Necklaces 62
New fire 37
Omens from Bei leaves 132
Origin of fire 151
Out-rigger canoes, Management of 40
Pabai, A 36
Paths, Native made 31
Payment of a fine 98
Perception of colour 155
Phonographic records 69
Pimlingai, Slave class 49, 158, 168
Pooguroo 29, 33
Population 17
Posture songs 82, 85
Presents to a corpse 166
Religion 142
Return of a fishing party 42
Ronoboi, The mach-mach 64, 106
Sacred mats or Umbul 104, 151
Shell money 102, 103
Shell necklaces as money 105
Sitting down posture song 86
Slave class, Pimlingai 49, 158, 168
Soul, The 147, 149
Spells 79
Standard of beauty 124
Standing-up dance 88
Stone money 93
Sunken wealth 97
Superstitions 39, 43, 45, 120, 137, 165
Taboo over fishermen 38
Tacking with an out-rigger canoe 40
Tafenai, The soul 147, 149
Tattooing 157
Tattooing of a mispil 54
Thauei, Shell necklaces 105
Trading value of Fei 101
Uaap, Meaning of 16
Umbul, Sacred mats 104
Women’s skirts 121
Words of songs 78
Yalafath, The Supreme Deity 149
Yap, Meaning of 16
FOOTNOTES:
[1] Christian, (The Caroline Islands, p. 350) says that it is a
variety of Morinda citrifolia.
[2] “Almost the oldest specimen of Latin which we now
possess is the Song of the Salii, the priests of Mars, handed on
from generation to generation, and repeated with scrupulous
care, even though the priests themselves, as Quintilian assures
us, had not the least notion what it meant.”—Bailey Religion of
Ancient Rome, 1907, p. 24.
Transcriber’s Notes:
1. Obvious printers’, punctuation and spelling errors have been corrected

silently.
2. Where hyphenation is in doubt, it has been retained as in the original.
3. Some hyphenated and non-hyphenated versions of the same words have

been retained as in the original.
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Jeffrey D. Camm James J. Cochran

Michael J. Fry Jeffrey W. Ohlmann

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CHAPTER 2 Descriptive Statistics 18

CHAPTER 3 Data Visualization 82

Line Charts 102

CHAPTER 4 Descriptive Data Mining 138

Appendix 4.7 k-Means Clustering with JMP Pro

CHAPTER 5 Probability: An ­Introduction to

CHAPTER 6 Statistical Inference 220

6.4 Interval Estimation 240

CHAPTER 7 Linear Regression 294

7.5 Inference and Regression 313

CHAPTER 8 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting 372

Combining Causal Variables with Trend and Seasonality Effects 404

CHAPTER 9 Predictive Data Mining 422

CHAPTER 10 Spreadsheet Models 464

CHAPTER 11 Monte Carlo Simulation 500

11.4 Simulation Considerations 532

CHAPTER 12 Linear Optimization Models 556

CHAPTER 13 Integer Linear ­Optimization Models 606

CHAPTER 14 Nonlinear Optimization Models 646

CHAPTER 15 Decision Analysis 678

APPENDIX A Basics of Excel 724

APPENDIX B Database Basics with Microsoft Access 736

APPENDIX C Solutions to Even-Numbered Questions (MindTap Reader)

Jeffrey W. Ohlmann. Jeffrey W. Ohlmann is Associate Professor of Management Sciences

David R. Anderson. David R. Anderson is Professor Emeritus of Quantitative Analysis in

Dennis J. Sweeney. Dennis J. Sweeney is Professor Emeritus of Quantitative Analysis and

Thomas A. Williams. Thomas A. Williams is Professor Emeritus of Management Science

Updates in the Third Edition

CHAPTER 5 Probability: An Introduction to

CHAPTER 13 Integer Linear Optimization Models 606