Roland Berger Additive Manufacturing Investment Story
Roland Berger Additive Manufacturing Investment Story
Roland Berger Additive Manufacturing Investment Story
Additive manufacturing:
The money story
A SPECIFIC VALUE PROPOSITION
FOR A FAST-GROWING SEGMENT
MANAGEMENT FAST FACTS
SUMMARY & CONTENTS
10
A
was a record AM year
dditive manufacturing and money go together. We have seen this in the
IPOs
past, and especially in 2021, with new peaks in public offerings, M&A
deals and funding. The industry has been fired up by a combination of
marketing and engineers' dreams suggesting that, with AM, nothing is
impossible. As part of our Next Generation Manufacturing publication
series, we therefore analyze the drivers behind the money. We look at
where and how money is invested, and examining the key valuation
levers in the AM industry.
1/ DRIVERS OF MONEY IN THE AM INDUSTRY 4
Learn more about
Next Generation
Manufacturing 2/ NEW IPOS, M&AS AND FUNDING INDICATE A
VERY ACTIVE MARKET 5
This study does not purport to be all-inclusive and is not investment 4/ WHAT FUTURE INNOVATIONS CAN DISRUPT 12
advice. This study is not a recommendation to invest or not invest in THIS INDUSTRY?
any of the companies mentioned in this study.
The information and opinions contained in this study have not been CONCLUSION 16
independently verified and no representation or warranty, expressed or
implied, is or will be made in relation to the accuracy or completeness
of this study. No responsibility, liability or duty of care is or will be
accepted by Roland Berger or any of its subsidiaries or their respective
officers, employees and agents in relation to this study.
Cover photo Lucy Lambriex/Getty Images
Any reliance the recipient places on this study is at its sole risk, and
to the fullest extent permitted by law and except in the case of fraud,
Roland Berger and its subsidiaries and their respective officers,
employees and agents expressly disclaim any and all liability which
may be based on this study. The major part of this study was written
before the start of the Russian-Ukraine crisis in 2022 made the market
as attractive as it is today.
assisted designs are printed and digital inventories are assembled, all of which
Driver relevance & future development
adds up to digital supply chains. Various reports and market studies claim growth
rates in excess of 20% p.a. but, in so doing, fuel business plans and expectations
that often go beyond reality. Hand in hand with these reports, media coverage
and marketing blurb speak of endless possibilities. Yet few mention the still very
high cost of AM materials, machinery and parts, or the fact that AM is still mostly Low current relevance of driver High current relevance of driver Increasing expected future development Decreasing expected future development
spaces illustrates how low the barriers to market entry really are, as well as
reflecting the efforts undertaken by these companies to secure sufficient funds
to gain a foothold on the AM market. Low interest rates are likewise buoying
up the market by making capital more readily accessible. And large aerospace,
medical technology or turbomachinery companies who choose AM for their
production technology will always find major investors
2/ New IPOs, M&As and funding indicate
an active market
ready and waiting close by. This trend will likely "A large amount
continue for all drivers – with the exception of entry of money was raised A glance at the stock market and how AM companies have performed compared
barriers, which are expected to remain low as the market to the market in general clearly reveals the additive manufacturing hype that
and its technologies become ever more complex, on the market in blossomed around 2015. AM stocks then hit another peak in the latter half of
offering novel niches for startups. Accordingly, Roland
2021 – a record 2021, outperforming the stock market as a whole. In part, this trend seems to
Berger expects to see further activity in the AM market have been caused by media attention on the numerous IPOs in 2020 and 2021,
in 2022. Given that this industry is highly flexible in IPO year for AM. starting with Desktop Metal and culminating around the public offering of
terms of production sites and locations, it is believed
that the Russia-Ukraine war will not stop current
Some investors will Velo3D. Many other companies took advantage of this high point in 2021 to
also raise money through special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) IPOs.
developments. On the contrary, the conflict may actually make their returns, This form of public offering follows an accelerated timeline and is preferred by
encourage precisely the flexible production and supply "younger" companies with substantial capital needs. In 2022, further IPOs have
chains to which AM can make a major contribution.
but definitely not all already been announced on the AM market, and there is as yet no visible sign
of them." that the influx of money might be ebbing. B
Bernhard Langefeld
2021 was also an outstanding year for deal-making in the AM industry, with a
Senior Partner
record 47 deals closed. The total disclosed deal value of above EUR 2 billion
and an average deal value of over EUR 100 million suggest that the AM market
Roland Berger 4 Additive manufacturing: The money story Roland Berger 5 Additive manufacturing: The money story
B/ Stock development of additive manufacturing companies D/ 2021 was an outstanding year for additive manufacturing related M&A deals, with 47 deals
against general market development Overview of AM related M&A deals, without IPOs
1st and 2nd additive manufacturing hype [indexed to 100 in 2012]
2018 – 2021 2021
400 β1) ~1.25 β1) ~1.25 β1) ~1.65 Deals [#/year] 33 40 23 47 Number of AM related M&A deals in 2021
47
First additive Average
Second additive STOXX ®
manufacturing hype disclosed deal 63 212 73 107
manufacturing hype, Global 3D 35
300 value [EUR m]
start of second AM Printing 6
IPO wave
6
STOXX® Sum of
Global 1800 disclosed deal 2,031
values [EUR m]
200
Buyers
∑ 9 ∑ 11
1
1 Machine Service Materials End user
∑ 7 1 Total initial valuation: 2018 2019 2020 2021 Software Private equity Others
above EUR 10,000 m
1 3 Total revenues at IPO: Source: Capital IQ, company information, Roland Berger
1 above EUR 300 m
Total EBIT at IPO:
∑ 2 below EUR -200 m
5 5
landscape is changing continuously as more money is invested. AM machinery
companies in particular were the most active on both the buyers' side and as the
targets of recorded deals. Initial signs of consolidation are emerging, with big
AM companies such as Desktop Metal acquiring six other firms and 3D Systems
Before 2000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020 2021 acquiring four and selling two in 2021, while most revenue multiples may not
exactly be bargain buys, at around one to a maximum of 25. To set this in context,
Company types: Machine Service End user Software a company operating at 10% EBIT margin that is valued at a revenue multiple
IPO types: Traditional Special Purpose Acquisition Company Reverse merger of one means its EBIT multiple is 10. Double-digit growth rate expectations will
nevertheless likely lead to numerous deals in 2022. C, D
Source: Capital IQ, company information, Roland Berger
Roland Berger 6 Additive manufacturing: The money story Roland Berger 7 Additive manufacturing: The money story
It is interesting to note that, if post-IPO funding is excluded, yearly injections
of capital fell back to the 2019 level of roughly EUR 1 billion in 2021. However,
when post-IPO funding is included, funds raised in 2021 surge past EUR 1.5
3/ Current and future expectations based on
a discounted cash flow model
billion, which translates into an annual growth rate of more than 40% from 2018
through 2021. As early-stage funding, too, is increasing, more and more startups All investors must ask themselves one question: Does the price tag on the target
are expected to hit the market with fresh innovations, products, software and company reflect its fair value, or has it been overblown by a hot market? Analysis
services in the years ahead. In other words, more market players are expected of discounted cash flow values permits the main valuation levers to be identified
to enter the AM market with commercial offerings. E during the high-growth phase and, for mature companies, in the stable-growth
phase. We believe that the valuation of AM companies – when the expected
ranges are based on public markets reports – will be flawed or distorted. There
is no question that expected future ranges in the free cash flows to firms (FCFFs)
"The AM landscape is changing with every formula correlate closely to the positioning of the company within the AM value
chain, i.e. whether it is a materials provider, a machinery OEM, an AM service
deal completed in the industry, and the company or a software firm. Given that there are more than 15 different additive
pace of technological development is high, manufacturing technologies in metal and polymer printing alone, the AM market
is enormously complex. A clear understanding of the AM company's business
too. Investors need to understand the entire model and its competitive positioning is thus crucial to drive the company's
market to make their investments work." success today and in the future. Analysis of pure-play AM companies with
public disclosure shows that 50% of them grew at double-digit rates from 2019
Tim Femmer through 2020. Overall, the market today is dominated not by highly profitable
Project Manager companies – only one in three reports positive EBIT – but by companies with
ambitious business plans that describe sizable future profits. Capital requirements
are steep for AM companies, as are investment ratios: Short product variant
lifecycles prevail in the AM machinery space, i.e., each new machine generation
E/ Funding in the additive manufacturing has to cover its own R&D expenses, marketing and customer
Investments by category, incl. post-IPO funding, 2018-2021 [EUR m] acquisition costs. Given the current dynamics of the market,
this trend will continue in the years to come, so there is
"A lot of AM
obviously a clear risk that companies may bleed red ink for a companies are
prolonged period. In addition, signs that part of the market is
2018 at the forefront of commoditization have limited projected
already on the
EBIT margins for stable companies in mature AM industries. market and new
These are expected to be around 8 to 20% – comparable to the
2019 mechanical engineering sector. On the other hand, some AM
companies are
> 40 %
companies are evidently showing the way forward, addressing joining the fray.
the right customer needs in the right market segments and
2020 realizing highly profitable use cases. F
Chinese companies
are advancing, and
2021
companies need
a clear USP to
[EUR m]
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 succeed."
Max Schaukellis
Seed Series A Series B Series C Series D Series E Post-IPO Others
Senior Consultant
Roland Berger 8 Additive manufacturing: The money story Roland Berger 9 Additive manufacturing: The money story
F/ Levers in the DCF valuation
Main levers in the discounted cash flow model valuation
Company
value = Present value of FCFF1)
during high-growth phase + Present value for a mature
company in stable-growth phase + Value of cash &
non-operating assets
– + ÷ ÷ – ÷ +
∑
X
[( ) ] {[ ( )] }
Revenue Cash & Non-
EBIT Cumulative Cost of Cumulative
Revenue CAPEXHG Others2) FCFFMC growth marketable operating
High margin WACC3)HG capitalMC WACC3)MC
rateMC securities assets
growth
(HG)
FCFFHG
High-growth Mature company (MC)
phase (HG) in stable-growth phase
Major Mature
High-growth
impact Revenue EBIT margin CAPEX company
phase EBIT margin
lever growth rate development needs revenue
duration
growth
Expected
future 10 – 15 Double-digit Negative Mid-high
ranges years % p.a. to +30% to high 8 – 20% 3 – 5%
Current market
situation of 2018 – 2019 32 28 40 2018 51 49 36 64
pure AM
2019 – 2020 55 15 30 2019 64 36 54 46
companies4)
2020 – 2021 55 17 50 2020 70 30 43 57
in % in % in %
1) FCFF: Free cash flow to firm; 2) +Depreciation & Amortization -Taxes -∆Net Working Capital; 3) WACC: Weighted average cost of capital;
4) AM company sample size ~50 companies with dominant business in AM, incl. 10 publicly listed companies and 40 publicly disclosed financial statements
Roland Berger 10 Additive manufacturing: The money story Roland Berger 11 Additive manufacturing: The money story
4/ What future innovations can disrupt this
industry?
"There is no one-size-fits-all solution
on the AM market. Each application is
The additive manufacturing market landscape is changing constantly and at a
rapid pace. Every move, every deal, every new IPO, market entry or successful different and requires a unique skill set
funding round makes the market an increasingly complex ecosystem. The
and combination of design, material,
industry is experiencing forceful innovation across the board, from materials to
machinery to software and services. Large-scale metal AM production systems machine, software and post-processing."
and metal binder jetting machines are hitting the market right now, and a look
Jonas Quarder
at the AM innovation roadmap reveals further potential ahead. Continuous fiber
Consultant
composite systems, for example, produce parts that are lighter than aluminum
but stronger than metal. This fact, combined with affordable machine prices,
make this a very interesting technology for medium-sized to large parts – such
as bicycle frames – that need to be extremely strong and lightweight. A further
concept that should be on people's watchlist is changes in the laser exposure
concept. Currently, all lasers generate focused dots, rather like a pen. Movement increasing the number of industrial 3D printing adopters. Parts hatching and
of the laser gives exposure to a line, and the consecutive exposure of many lines toolpath optimization are the focus of work for a good number of startups whose
covers an entire area. However, this is time consuming compared to the diode goal is to speed up print times and boost machine productivity for multiple AM
laser concept, which uses multiple lasers to expose an entire area simultaneously. technologies. Quality assurance for metal laser powder-bed fusion is another
Faster exposure speeds are expected to bring costs down, opening the door to developing field that has evolved from melt pool data acquisition to actual melt
applications for which AM is still too expensive today. An even greater increase pool monitoring. It allows engineers and operators to detect and fix problems
in printing speeds is realized by enhanced continuous liquid polymer resin with build jobs – or simply make the decision to stop printing, which saves time
printers from Azul and Nexa3D. These printers give exposure to entire areas and slashes the number of scrapped build jobs. G
and jump even more quickly from layer to layer, thanks to an intelligent and
continuously flowing interface between the solidified part and the liquid resin Sales platforms are gradually moving from prototyping to the industrial space
at the point of exposure. Additional concepts, such as holographic printing from by offering higher quality standards. This is the case for Makerverse, a new
the likes of Spectroplast for silicon materials, combine new materials with platform released in early 2022. Industrial-quality sales platforms have the
enhanced exposure concepts, especially for medical applications. Beyond that, potential to provide an alternative to direct setup of contract manufacturing. The
new software developments in the AM space are optimizing processes and parts feasibility assessments conducted for B2C marketplaces are mature enough
to emulate the judgment of an experienced AM engineer. We are also seeing
innovation in post-processing: The removal of support structures from metal
AM parts has always been a process that requires considerable manual effort.
Nowadays, the availability of solutions such as electrochemical processing
facilitates the automated removal of support structures and the simultaneous
"The number of innovations in the AM space smoothing of surfaces in an electrochemical process. Similarly, minimizing
is tremendous. Each innovation opens manual part interaction in the post-processing chain increases both repeatability
and the consistency of part quality. Bearing in mind that these examples touch
a new window of opportunity to change the on only a tiny selection of future developments, there is definitely more to come
AM market." in the future. The key to future success in the AM industry, however, will be the
ability to combine those skill sets that address customers' specific needs. Only
Miguel López players that know how to do this and can thus position themselves in the "sweet
Consultant spot" will ultimately win the race.
Roland Berger 12 Additive manufacturing: The money story Roland Berger 13 Additive manufacturing: The money story
G/ Potential new technological developments that could change the AM landscape
Metal, polymer, software and post-processing AM innovations
Post-
Metal Polymers Software processing
Large, multi- Binder jetting Diode laser Continuous New continuous Advanced laser Industrial quality Hirtization
laser L-PBF developments systems fiber liquid systems path generation sales platforms
machines composites and melt-pool
systems monitoring
• Increase build • Increase of • Innovative AM of fiber • Innovative • Optimization New B2C platforms Electrochemical
size of metal metal AM build exposure reinforced continuous- of laser paths that include process for the
AM parts up to speed (but at concept with materials with exposure concept during slicing AI-based tools for removal of support
approx. 1 m³ lower part diode laser superior enabled by liquid and hatching part identification structures and the
performance) array of up to mechanical interface between and feasibility reduction of the
• Increase of • Simulation,
1 m laser spots properties solidified resin and assessments, as surface roughness
build speed monitoring
Key •S
ignificant compared to resin tank well as verification of 3D-printed metal
enabled by • Significant and control of
advancement reduction of other polymer of production quality parts
increased increase of •S
ignificant melt pools
costs compared and metal to meet industrial
number of build speed and increase of build
to other materials • Increasing standards
lasers (up reduction of speed compared
metal AM number of
to 12) costs to SLA/DLP
technologies established play-
ers and startups
entering the field
Time to
impact
Industrialized 4 – 5 years to
industrialization
Roland Berger 14 Additive manufacturing: The money story Roland Berger 15 Additive manufacturing: The money story
CONCLUSION AUTHORS
in the near future. This publication has been prepared for general guidance only. The reader should not act according to any
information provided in this publication without receiving specific professional advice. Roland Berger GmbH
shall not be liable for any damages resulting from any use of the information contained in the publication.
© 2022 ROLAND BERGER GMBH. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
EUROPE
Bernhard Langefeld
Further reading
Senior Partner +49 160 744-6143 [email protected]
MIDDLE EAST
Vatche Kourkejian
Partner +973 13 609-900 [email protected]
Additive Manufacturing
ASIA
Sustainability
Alex Xu in Additive
Manufacturing
Xing Wang
AUTHORS
Market, machines and materials –
DR.-ING. BERNHARD
LANGEFELD
The new playground for large chemical
Partner,
Germany
companies
WITH OUR
S U S TA I N A B L E DR.-ING. TIM FEMMER In this study we take a close look at polymer additive manufacturing,
Senior Consultant, an area that has attracted increasing attention since its commercial
transparent AM A fair comparison numbers, materials, systems and applications. More and more players are now entering
the market, offering a diversified portfolio not only of materials and machines, but also of
services and software. The number of serial AM polymer vs. polymer AM applications is
of AM vs. conventional rising, permanently changing some industries. For example, polymer AM enables the
manufacturing production of personalized hearing aids, dental mouth guards, prosthetics and orthotics,
LOCAL
increasing patients' quality of life and improving medical outcomes. At the same time,
printed consumer goods such as shoes, mascara brushes and shaving equipment show
that customers are willing to pay for goods produced using the new technology. This
Marc Hesse
How a digital inventory and additive
manufacturing can mitigate risks
Amid national shutdowns and border closures business is anything but
AUTHOR usual. Complex value chain networks, some with seven supply-chain
BERNHARD LANGEFELD levels or even more, have been heavily disrupted. Delivering the right
Partner
Jörg Eschmann
Trend toward regionalization and digitalization
of supply chains
There are two major trends that will be crucial to mitigating the risks highlighted by the
crisis. As companies consider sourcing decisions, there will be renewed emphasis on
prioritizing local-for-local production. However, there will still be limitations due to
regional cost differences and existing capacity restraints. Consequently, increased use
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