IRI - 2011 Dec 19 - Survey of Eastern Libya Public Opinion, October 12-25, 2011
IRI - 2011 Dec 19 - Survey of Eastern Libya Public Opinion, October 12-25, 2011
IRI - 2011 Dec 19 - Survey of Eastern Libya Public Opinion, October 12-25, 2011
Survey Specifications
Conducted by Shabakat Corporation on behalf of the International Republican Institute. Caerus Associates LLC contributed statistical analysis. Fieldwork was carried out October 12 25, 2011. The survey includes six out of Libyas 22 districts: Al-Butnan, Al-Jabal Al-Akhdar, Al-Marj, Al-Wahat, Benghazi and Darnah. These six districts make up Libyas eastern region. The sample was 1,428 adult Libyan citizens (age 18+). Overall margin of error = +/- 2.6 percent. Interview data was collected using in-person, face-to-face methodology by trained professional interviewers. Women interviewed women, and men interviewed men. Households were randomly selected using a multi-stage stratification proportionate to population sample distribution across the survey universe of six districts. Levels of stratification: (1) district (all six districts were sampled), (2) urban/semi-rural/rural, (3) municipality, (4) cluster, (5) household, (6) individual Only one individual was interviewed per randomly selected household. The Kish grid method was used to select respondents within the household. The right-hand method was used to select every third household within each randomly selected cluster. The response rate was 92.4 percent. The numerator for this figure is the number of surveys that were run to completion. The denominator is all respondents who were at home and met the qualifying criteria: aged 18 or older, residing at the address sampled, and not an National Transitional Council (NTC) official, a local-council official, a member of the military or police, a member of the media, or a member of any other security agency. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.
Survey questions
GENERAL
Now thinking about how things are going in Libya as a whole, how would you say things are going in our country overall these days? Are they going in the right direction or the wrong direction?
Don't know 8%
Refused 2%
Wrong direction 6%
Survey questions
Strongly support Moderately support No opinion Moderately unsupportive Strongly unsupportive Refused Don't know 12%
84%
1%
1% 0% 1% 1%
Are there specific individuals or groups you support within the NTC? (open-ended question)
Mustafa Abdul Jalil* No specific individuals or groups / All NTC members Mahmoud Jibril**
36%
29%
22% 8% 2% 2% 2% 0%
*Mustafa Abdul Jalil is chairman of the NTC and therefore Libyas interim head of state. **Mahmoud Jibril was chairman of the NTCs executive board and therefore Libyas interim prime minister. He had promised to resign after Libyas had been liberated, and on October 23, 2011 (during the course of this survey), he did so.
Very likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not at all likely 3% 1% 0% 3%
63%
31%
Refused
Don't know
Weapons collection
Medical treatment Provision of security Organizing a proper government Ensuring distribution of wealth Other Refused Don't know 0% 0% 4% 14% 22% 19%
33%
8%
19%
Infrastructure
Constitution Employment Refused Take care of youth Tribes Ex-Gaddafi officials
3%
3% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 6%
Misinformed population
Other
97%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
72%
16%
2%
2%
4%
3%
67%
15%
3%
2%
10%
2%
56%
27%
3%
5%
5%
3%
56%
15%
6%
5%
12%
6%
37%
13%
5%
7%
27%
9%
How much influence does this individuals opinion have on you and your opinions about current events and politics?
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Head of household
67%
17%
14% 1% 2%
Strong influence
Some influence No influence
NTC member
45%
31%
21% 1% 3%
Refused
Don't know
Religious leader
42%
31%
22%
1%
Tribal leader 14% 28% 54% 1%
3%
3%
NTC
55%
26%
9% 8% 1%
Volunteers
40%
31%
13%
13% 2%
A great deal A fair amount Only a little Not at all Refused Don't know
Local brigades
36%
29%
11%
19%
1% 4%
Local police
28%
34%
16%
19%
3% Local tribe
13% 24% 16% 42% 1% 4%
Strongly agree People should be prohibited from offending other religions Religion should be part of public life (e.g. public education) Religion should be part of government Religion should be part a private/personal issue
Somewhat agree
No opinion
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
86%
8%
1%
1%
2%
84%
11%
1%
1%
2%
1%
68%
17%
2%
4%
7%
1%
44%
13%
3%
8%
28%
3%
Would you approve or disapprove of the future government of Libya being secular?
Refused 2%
Approve 14%
Disapprove 69%
Within six months Less than a year More than one year Between one and two years 8% 8% 5% 1% 34%
44%
Don't know
Refused
43%
35%
Don't know
Refused
Local volunteers
NTC members Local brigades NTC police Obeidi tribe Amazigh tribe Ali Al-Issawi Jihadists Tribal leaders Ahmed Hussein Al-Darrat Jalal Al-Digheily Abdullah Shamia Salafists Muslim Brotherhood Tebus tribe Maghara tribe Touareg tribe Ghaddafa tribe Genturyah tribe
24%
20% 16% 15% 14% 14% 11% 9% 8% 6% 4% 2% 2%
20%
16% 39% 16% 18% 14% 17% 22% 16% 24% 15% 21% 2%
10%
13% 19% 10% 10% 7% 18% 17% 13% 14% 14% 10% 4%
5%
6% 9% 2% 3% 2% 10% 9% 7% 14% 10% 20% 6%
6%
18% 13% 2% 5% 2% 15% 16% 13% 20% 21% 34% 81%
35%
27% 4% 54% 49% 61% 29% 26% 43% 22% 36% 13% 5%
Survey questions
16% 59%
18%
6%
Very bad
Refused
0%
1%
Don't know
Over the last year, how has your households financial situation changed?
Gotten much better Gotten somewhat better Stayed the same Gotten somewhat worse Gotten much worse 8% 2% 1%
12% 36%
25%
17%
Refused
Don't know
In the next year, how do you expect your households financial situation to change?
Get much better Get somewhat better Stay the same Get somewhat worse Get much worse Refused 2% 1% 0% 0% 4% 20%
72%
Don't know
How has the situation changed over the past year with regard to...?
Gotten much better Development of independent media Development of independent civil society Access to electricity Security Access to water Living standards Education Health care Unemployment Infrastructure 48% 30% 19% 16% 15% 9% 5% 4% 2% 2%
Gotten somewhat better 31% 33% 30% 34% 20% 35% 18% 17% 12% 4%
Stayed the same 7% 17% 42% 18% 54% 33% 55% 37% 55% 50%
Gotten much worse 10% 10% 3% 11% 5% 9% 13% 22% 17% 29%
No 78%
No 87%
If you could pick only one of the following, which would you first consider yourself to be?
Muslim Libyan Arab Member of a tribe African Refused Don't know 1% 1% 0% 0% 9% 41%
48%
Survey questions
FOREIGN RELATIONS
Highly favorable Qatar France the United Arab Emirates NATO Tunisia the United States the United Nations the European Union the Arab League Egypt the African Union 94% 84% 76% 68% 60% 60% 60% 53% 51% 45% 7%
Somewhat Somewhat Highly No opinion favorable unfavorable unfavorable 5% 11% 18% 21% 34% 30% 31% 33% 33% 41% 9% 0% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 4% 4% 6% 0% 1% 1% 3% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4% 5% 12% 1% 1% 2% 5% 2% 4% 2% 2% 6% 4% 62%
USA
UK Italy Other Refused Don't know
1%
1% 4% 0%
1%
0% 3% 0%
Italy
Other Refused Don't know
1%
1%
71%
13% 4% 1%
France
USA UK Italy
1%
5% 1% 4%
Other
Refused Don't know
Do you support international development to assist Libya with its transition to democracy?
Highly supportive
70%
Somewhat supportive
18%
Somewhat unsupportive
3%
Highly unsupportive
6%
Refused
0%
Don't know
3%
Survey questions
Sampled Municipalities
Al-Butnn (District 1) Tubruq (semi-urban) Musid (rural) Kambt (rural) Darnah (District 2) Darnah (semi-urban) Al-Qubbah (rural) Al-Tamm (rural) Mudriyat Matrbah (rural) Al-Jabal Al-Akhdar (District 3) Al-Bayd (semi-urban) Shahht (rural) Zwiyat Bishrah (rural) Al-Labraq (rural) Fidyah (rural) Al-Wht (District 6) Ajdbiyah (semi-urban) Jl (rural) Awjilah (rural) Al-Zuwaytnah (rural)
Al-Marj (District 4) Al-Marj (semi-urban) Al-Abyr (rural) Sd Khalfah (rural) Talmthah (rural) Battah (rural) Jardas al-Abd (rural)
Respondent age*
Respondent gender*
Over 50 7%
36-50 23%
18-25 38%
Female 49%
Male 51%
26-35 32%
*This is after all results were post-weighted by gender. The gender breakdown of the actual respondent sample was 69 percent male, 31 percent female. All figures in this presentation reflect post-weighting by gender.
12%
16%
53%
7%
Refused
5%
Don't know
8%