International Journal of Power Electronics and Drive Systems (IJPEDS)

Vol. 13, No. 1, March 2022, pp. 586~593

ISSN: 2088-8694, DOI: 10.11591/ijpeds.v13.i1.pp586-593  586

Artificial neural network based short term electrical load

forecasting

Oon Yi Her, Mohd Saiful Azimi Mahmud, Mohamad Shukri Zainal Abidin, Razman Ayop,
Salinda Buyamin
School of Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Skudai, Johor Bahru, Malaysia

Article Info ABSTRACT

Article history: In power generation, a 24-hour load profile can vary significantly throughout
the day. Therefore, power generation must be adjusted to reduce money loss
Received Mar 29, 2021 due to excess generation. This paper presents a short-term load forecasting
Revised Jan 30, 2022 (STLF) system design using artificial neural network (ANN). As ANN come
Accepted Feb 6, 2022 in many different configurations, this paper analyzes the best ANN
configuration via trial-and-error method. To train the ANN, historical load
data from 2016 to 2018 of power south energy cooperative (AEC) is used. A
Keywords: simple feedforward ANN type with one hidden layer is implemented, where
48 neurons are used at the input layer. For hidden layer, an arbitrary 50
Artificial neural network neurons are chosen and 24 neurons at output layer are used to generate a day
Electrical energy ahead 24-hour load profile. To measure the best activation function for
Load forecasting SLTF application, four non-linear activation functions will be tested and the
Power distribution best activation function is used to create two and three hidden layer ANN
Short term architecture. Finally, the performance of the two new networks will be
compared against one hidden layer model. From the obtained result, the best
performing model is found as two hidden layers ANN with Tanh as its
hidden layer activation function with 8.9% of testing mean absolute
percentage error (MAPE).
This is an open access article under the CC BY-SA license.

Corresponding Author:
Mohd Saiful Azimi Mahmud
Control and Mechatronics Engineering Division, School of Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Skudai, 81310 Skudai Johor, Malaysia
Email: [email protected]

1. INTRODUCTION
Electrical energy is a very crucial resource of modern human society as it powered various
important industries that satisfy human needs. However, electricity is difficult to be produced and distributed
especially in large scale area. In addition to that, electrical energy storage system does not have widespread
implementation due to economic reasoning as most of the generated electricity must be consumed
immediately. Therefore, to ensure that the power system distribution operation to be running smoothly, an
efficient load forecasting system is required [1]. In general, electrical load forecasting is divided into three
types which are short-term load forecasting (STLF), medium-term load forecasting (MTLF) and long-term
load forecasting [2]. Each type is divided based on different forecasting ranges. In designing load forecasting
system, an inaccurate forecast will cause a mismatch between demand and generation of electrical power and
eventually it will result in significant amount of money loss. Thus, the selection of load forecasting method
needs to be chosen based on its application to solve specific load forecasting type.
Load forecasting methods can be categorized in three major groups which are traditional forecasting
technique, Modified forecasting technique and soft computing technique. All types of load forecasting
methods have their own advantage and disadvantage and their usage is dependent on the load pattern, type of

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Int J Pow Elec & Dri Syst ISSN: 2088-8694  587

model inputs and forecasting time horizon. In traditional forecasting method, conventional mathematical
techniques such as regression [3], [4], multiple-regression [5] and exponential smoothing [6], [7] is usually
used. From all available traditional forecasting methods, the multiple-regression technique is the most
popular and has been widely used to forecast the load that are affected by numerous factors from
meteorological effects, electricity prices, economic growth and others.
The modified traditional forecasting method is designed by modifying the traditional methods to
enable the automatic parameter correction of forecasting model under changing environmental conditions.
Some of the techniques used in modified traditional forecasting are adaptive load forecasting [8], [9],
stochastic time series [10] and support vector machine [11], [12]. By comparing all methods in this category,
the adaptive load forecasting method has the most advantages as the demand forecasting model parameters
are automatically corrected to keep track of the changing load conditions, thus enable the prediction system
to be used on-line.
Recently, soft computing techniques have been emerging as a flexible approach to forecast the
electrical load in power system. This technique mimics the human reasoning system to employ the ability to
produce mode of reasoning that is approximate rather than accurate. This method using algorithms such as
fuzzy logic [13]−[15], artificial neural network (ANN) [16]−[19] and evolutionary algorithms such as genetic
algorithm [20]−[22] and particle swarm optimizations [23]−[25]. In soft computing method, each factor
affecting the forecast is considered as a cost and the method will exploit all possibilities to find the potential
solution based on the computed costs.
Each algorithm in soft computing techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages. In fuzzy
logic based method, the knowledge must be adapted accurately using fuzzy rules as the quality of the
forecasting system will be mainly affected by the fuzzy rules. In ANN based methods, the selection of the
parameters needed in training the models must be carefully chosen as each parameter will affect the
performance of the forecasting system. Finally, solution generated by the evolutionary algorithm usually fall
into local minimum thus creating low quality electrical load prediction for power systems. Therefore, the
implementation of soft computing technique needs a careful design process to create an efficient load
forecasting system.
As ANN comes with different configuration, this paper proposed analysis on the effect of ANN
parameters towards short-term load forecasting system. In this paper, multiple layers feed forward network
will be used which will predict the electrical usage a day ahead in 24-hours using historical data, day of
week, week of month and month of year as the inputs. The analysis of different number of hidden layers and
activation function types are conducted in this paper to find the most optimized parameters in short team load
forecasting.

2. RESEARCH METHOD
Figure 1 shows the overall process for short term load forecasting. In this paper, a densely connected
feedforward ANN with backpropagation learning algorithm will be used to implement the short-term load
forecast. Based on Figure 1, the process of SLTF starts with the data initialization where the historical data
were loaded. Then, the data was preprocessed where encoding process is executed in this stage. After the date
has been loaded, the model will be trained where different activation function will be used to find the best
activation function for the model. Finally, the hidden layer experiment is conducted where different number
of hidden layers will be tested to analyze the effect of number of hidden layers towards the prediction quality.
In this paper, 48 input neurons will be used and 50 hidden neurons were arbitrary chosen to forecast the
electrical load. In the output layer, 24 neurons were selected and mean absolute error is used as the loss
function which will be optimized using gradients descent algorithm using Keras SGD class. As a result, a
total of 3674 trainable parameters for single layer model, 6224 trainable parameters for two layers model and
8774 trainable parameters for three layers model is required for this architecture.

2.1. Inputs selection

For input selection, the historical load data, day of week, week of month and month of year will be
used for electrical load prediction [26]. Week in month is referred to the week sequence in a month which is
whether it is the first week, second week and so on. Month in year is referred to the month sequence in a year
whether it is first month, second month and so on. The historical data for previous day (𝑑 − 1) will be used
to forecast at forecast day (𝑑 + 1) which is the next day of present time (𝑑) shown in Figure 2. A total of 24
input neurons will be allocated to load data of hour 1 to hour 24 of previous day.

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Figure 1. ANN parameter analysis process for STLF

Figure 2. Forecasting timeline

To implement the input data into the ANN, bit encoding method is used in this paper. 7 input
neurons were used for the day of week data. For instance, if it is Sunday, the first neurons of day of week
neurons group will give 1 as input and 5 neurons will be used for the week of month. The month of year will
used 12 neurons input following the similar method. It should be noted that the day of week, week of month
and month of year inputs should be 24 hours load input day date. For instance, if the forecast day is 5
September 2018 and the input day is 3 September 2018, the day of week is Monday and will be encoded as
0100000, it is second week of the month so it will be encoded as 01000 and ninth month of the year and
encode as 000000001000. Then the 24-hours load input data will be taken from 3 September 2018 to predict
the load on 5 September 2018.

2.2. Activation function and data preprocessing

To determine the output of the ANN, a non-linear activation function will be used in the hidden
layer while a linear activation will be used in the output layer. This includes exponential, Tanh, sigmoid and
softsign activation function. For output layer, a rectified linear unit (ReLU) will be used for all ANN models.
For data preprocessing, all input data will be normalized into range of 0 to 1 before feeding the data into
ANN except for the bit encoded data since its value is either 0 or 1. For normalization, min-max feature
scaling is used. The description of min-max feature scaling is shown in (1).
𝑋−𝑋𝑚𝑖𝑛
𝑋′ = 𝑋 (1)
𝑚𝑎𝑥 −𝑋𝑚𝑖𝑛

As shown in (1), 𝑋 is the exact value of our data, 𝑋’ is the normalized value, 𝑋𝑚𝑎𝑥 represents the
maximum value of dataset and 𝑋𝑚𝑖𝑛 represents the minimum value of the dataset. The maximum load value
used is 1048 MWh and the minimum load value used is 291 MWh. Both of these values are the highest and
lowest load from year 2016 until 2017. In addition, any load value from year 2018 that exceed this minimum
and maximum range will be removed. Finally, the chosen parameter is measure based on the value of mean
absolute percentage error (MAPE). Daily best and worst absolute percentage error were recorded for
performance analysis. The testing MAPE will be plotted against the training MAPE for overfitting analysis in
this paper. The description of overfitting analysis is shown in Figure 3.
For overfitting analysis, a secondary training loop has been set up based to Figure 3. At every 50
training epochs, the training MAPE will be inspected either it has been falling under certain range given in

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the conditions shown in Figure 3. If it falls into the range, the current model will be stored. The original
attempt was conducted to train the models to a very low training MAPE, as low as 3%. However, overfitting
occurred much sooner and more often than expected. Therefore, this secondary training loop is the attempt to
capture a model just before it over-trained occurs to the model.

Figure 3. Secondary training loop flowchart

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

This section will discuss the results and analysis that have been conducted to forecast the electrical
load from 2016 to 2018. First, the best testing MAPE will be chosen based on a single hidden layer model.
Then, the chosen best testing MAPE will be used for further analysis by adding several hidden layers to
investigate the best ANN configuration for electrical load forecasting.

3.1. Best testing MAPE

In this paper, the Test MAPE is calculated using the mean of every hour to find the absolute
percentage error. To calculate the MAPE, 334-day load data of every hour in each day is used. Then, the 334
data will be multiplied by 24 hour and finally result in 8,016 pieces of hourly data. The testing MAPE is the
summation of each individual day hourly absolute percentage error divided by the total number of data which
is 8,016. Table 1 shows the results of the Test MAPE and its respective Train MAPE.
From the table, ANN model with Tanh hidden layer activation function has produce the best test
MAPE with 8.9% error while with sigmoid has the worst MAPE with 15.76% error. Therefore, Tanh
function has been selected to investigate the effect of the number of hidden layers to the prediction
performance for load forecasting which will be presented in the later part of this section.

Table 1. Comparison of different activation function for SLTF

Single hidden layer model Test MAPE, % Train MAPE, %
Tanh 8.9 7.01
Sigmoid 15.76 6.19
Softsign 9.61 8.11
Exponential 12.06 8.12

3.2. Overfitting analysis

In ANN, overfitting occurs when a model tries to forecast data trend in the data that is too noisy to
be predicted. This situation is happened due to the overly complex model that has many parameters. If the
model is overfitted, the forecast output would become inaccurate due to the trend does not reflect the current
data pattern. Figure 4 shows the comparison between the test MAPE and the train MAPE where Figure 4 (a)
is for Tanh, Figure 4 (b) is for sigmoid, Figure 4 (c) is for softsign and Figure 4 (d) is for exponential.
Tanh activation function have the most consistent curve which indicate its test and train MAPE
consistency. For Sigmoid activation function, the test and train MAPE relationship is very inconsistent as the
graph have shown a zig-zag pattern. Softsign is slightly worse than Tanh when it comes to test and train
MAPE curve but it placed at the second place in this situation. The relationship of exponential function starts
off linear and as the train MAPE go further down after the point of overfitting, the test MAPE seems to be
regaining its linear relationship with train MAPE.

Artificial neural network based short term electrical load forecasting (Oon Yi Her)
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(a) (b)

(c) (d)

Figure 4. Test MAPE vs train MAPE (a) Tanh, (b) sigmoid, (c) softsign, and (d) exponential

3.3. Best and worst forecast sample

In choosing the best ANN parameter for electrical load forecast, two different prediction perspective
has been chosen; best and worst to measure the effectiveness of the activation function throughout the
forecast. The average day sample is taken from each individual day average absolute percentage. For
example, to obtain these sample, calculation is performed on across all available 334 days hourly load to
obtain its individual day average absolute percentage error, so there will be 334 pieces of daily average
absolute percentage error. From there, the day which has the highest and lowest value of daily average
absolute percentage error will be taken out and its hourly load forecast will be plot against the actual load.
Table 2 shows the average absolute percentage error for the best and the worst day in electrical load
prediction.

Table 2. Average absolute percentage error for the best and worst forecast day
Model Best Individual Day Average Worst Individual Day Average
Absolute Percentage Error (%) Absolute Percentage Error (%)
Tanh 1.38 48
Sigmoid 4.18 68.23
Softsign 2.32 47.94
Exponential 3.65 52.02

By referring to the table, the lowest average absolute percentage Error for the best individual day is
found to be from Tanh and then followed by softsign, exponential and sigmoid. However, the lowest average
absolute percentage error for the worst individual day is found to be from softsign and then followed by
Tanh, exponential and sigmoid. Although Tanh falls into second place, the percentage difference is low as it
is only about 0.06%. Based on this analysis, Tanh activation function has been selected as the ANN model in
investigating the effect of hidden layer number to the forecasting performance which will be explained in the
next section.

3.4. Effect of ANN hidden layers to the forecasting performance

In this analysis, different number of hidden layers has been selected to choose the best ANN
configuration. Figure 5 shows the comparison between the test MAPE and the train MAPE where
Figure 5 (a) and Figure 5 (b) is for two and three hidden layers respectively. The two hidden layers shows a
similar performance with single hidden layer shown in Figure 4 however, the three hidden layer model start
overfitting around the value of 7.12% in train MAPE. Therefore, the three hidden layer model has shown a
worst forecast stability performance compared to the two hidden layer model. Table 3 shows the performance
of the test MAPE and train MAPE for two and three hidden layers ANN models respectively. Based on the

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table, it can be shown that the two hidden layers model has shown superiorities compared to three hidden
layers model with lower MAPE in test and train MAPE. Therefore, the two hidden layer model is
recommended to be used in short term load forecasting.

(a) (b)

Figure 5. Test MAPE vs train MAPE (a) two hidden layers and (b) three hidden layers

Table 3. Comparison of hidden layer number in ANN for SLTF application

Multiple hidden layer model (Tanh) Test MAPE, % Training MAPE, %
Two hidden layers 8.9 7.01
Three hidden layers 15.76 6.19

Figure 6 shows the best day forecast sample where Figure 6 (a) is for two hidden layer and Figure 6 (b)
is for three hidden layers. Figure 7 shows the worst day forecast sample in a day where Figure 7 (a) is for two
hidden layer and Figure 7 (b) is for three hidden layers. Table 4 shows the average absolute percentage error for
the best and worst forecast day for two and three hidden layers. From the table, it can be shown that the two
hidden layers model shows better performance compared to the three hidden layers. Therefore, it is highly
recommended to use two hidden layers Tanh activation function in predicting the short-term electrical load.

(a) (b)

Figure 6. Best day forecast sample in (a) two hidden layers and (b) three hidden layers

(a) (b)

Figure 7. Worst day forecast sample in (a) two hidden layers and (b) three hidden layers

Table 4. Average absolute percentage error for the best and worst forecast day for different hidden layer
Model Best individual day average Worst individual day average absolute
absolute percentage error (%) percentage error (%)
Two hidden layers (Tanh) 1.29 47.9
Three hidden layers (Tanh) 2.49 51.24

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4. CONCLUSION
The objective of this paper is to investigate the best ANN configuration for short term load
forecasting. To find the most optimized ANN configuration, the performance of different ANN activation
function is conducted where single hidden layer of Tanh, sigmoid, softsign and exponential function is
chosen and the performance was measured and compared. Based on the comparison, Tanh activation function
shows the best performance with 1.38% best individual day average absolute percentage error and 48% worst
individual day average absolute percentage error. Due to its best performance in load forecasting using single
hidden layer, Tanh activation function has been chosen to investigate the performance of different number of
hidden layers in load forecasting. Based on the result, the ANN with two hidden layers has shown a better
performance compared with ANN with three hidden layers. Therefore, the higher number of hidden layers
does not indicate better forecasting performance. For future works, it is suggested that the number of inputs
can be increased to include weather data to improve the load forecasting performance for different climate
conditions.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors are grateful to the Universiti Teknologi Malaysia and the Ministry of Higher Education
(MOHE), for their partial financial support through their research funds, Vote No. R.J130000.2651.17J53.

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BIOGRAPHIES OF AUTHORS

Oon Yi Her received his B.Eng in Electrical Engineering from Universiti

Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) in 2020. He has been currently graduated and actively work in
industry. He can be contacted at email: [email protected].

Mohd Saiful Azimi Mahmud received his B.Eng in Electrical Engineering,

majored in Control and Mechatronics from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) in 2015 and
PhD in Electrical Engineering from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) in 2019. Currently, he
is a Senior Lecturer at Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) in the Division of Control and
Mechatronics, School of Electrical Engineering. His research interest is related in the field of
multi-objective optimization, Artificial Intelligence, robotics, control system and image
processing applications. He can be contacted at email: [email protected].

Mohamad Shukri Zainal Abidin received his B.Eng in Electrical Engineering

from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) in 1998, Msc in Electrical Engineering from
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) in 2001 and PhD in Agriculture Engineering from Tokyo
University of Technology, Japan in 2014. Currently, he is an Associate Professor at Universiti
Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) in the Division of Control and Mechatronics, School of Electrical
Engineering and his current research interest involve the adaptive control strategies in fibrous
capillary irrigation system and agricultural robotics. He can be contacted at email:
[email protected].

Razman Ayop received the bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering, the master’s
degree in electrical engineering with specialization in power system, and the PhD degree in
electrical engineering from Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Johor, Malaysia, in 2013,
2015, and 2018, respectively. He is a Senior Lecturer with UTM and a member of Power
Electronics and Drives Research Group, School of Electrical Engineering. His research interests
include renewable energy and power electronics. This includes the photovoltaic (PV) emulator,
maximum power point tracking (MPPT) converter, standalone energy management and sizing,
PV modelling, vehicle to grid (V2G) system, particle swarm optimization, and fuzzy logic
controller. He can be contacted at email: [email protected].

Salinda Buyamin received her B. Eng in Electrical Engineering from University of

Toledo, USA in 1998, Msc in Automation and Control (Distinctio) from University of
Newcastle, United Kingdom in 2003 and PhD in Control of Electrical Drives from University of
Newcastle, United Kingdom in 2007. Currently, she is an Associate Professor at Universiti
Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) in Control and Mechatronics Department, and her current research
interest involve the Modelling and Simulation of Dynamic Systems, Control and Development of
Electric Drives System, Intelligent Control, Sensorless Control and Smart Agriculture System.
She can be contacted at email: [email protected].

Artificial neural network based short term electrical load forecasting (Oon Yi Her)