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S. Niggol Seo

The Economics of
Pandemics
Exploring Globally
Shared Experiences
The Economics of Pandemics
 S. Niggol Seo

The Economics
of Pandemics
Exploring Globally Shared Experiences
S. Niggol Seo
Muaebak Institute of Global Warming Studies
Bangkok, Thailand

ISBN 978-3-030-91020-4    ISBN 978-3-030-91021-1 (eBook)

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-91021-1

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature
Switzerland AG 2022
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the
Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of
translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on
microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval,
electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now
known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are
exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information
in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the
publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to
the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made.
The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and
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This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature
Switzerland AG.
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
All beings tremble at the whip.
All fear death.
All love life.
—Buddha Shakyamuni—
 Preface

This book entitled The Economics of Pandemics: Exploring Globally Shared

Experiences: How Should Globally Shared Resources Be Managed? is a trea-
tise on the decisions and consequences vis-à-vis a worldwide pandemic
whose experiences are deeply shared by the citizens of the planet. It pro-
vides a grand synthesis of a large array of the choices and decisions faced
by numerous economic agents who seek to minimize the harm inflicted
upon them by the pandemic, both economically and on their health,
which strikes only very rarely, therefore, is unpredictable.
With an integrative framework, this book clarifies and analyzes a full
spectrum of the decisions made during the pandemic by individual citi-
zens, businesses, local governments, national governments, pharmaceuti-
cal companies, international organizations, judicial systems, and numerous
political movements. This book is written as a textbook for a course on the
economics of pandemics and epidemics or the economics of globally
shared goods which may be taught at colleges and universities.
The present author had two goals in setting out to write this book. The
first is to reflect vividly on a full range of experiences shared by the global
community in 2020 and 2021 since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pan-
demic. The second is to develop the economics of pandemics that eluci-
dates and then integrates a full scope of the economic choices and decisions
faced by various economic actors at different time frames.
The idea of writing a book on planetwide pandemics was conceived at
around the peak of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic during April
2020. While closely observing national and international policy reactions
around the world, which appeared haphazardly, the present author was

vii
viii PREFACE

struck by the realization that there is no widely read economics publica-

tion on this grave planetary challenge and by how little economists have
paid attention to pandemic events as deadly as the COVID-19.
Soon it dawned on the present author, however, that that is also quite
understandable. The last pandemic event at a scale of the COVID-19 hap-
pened in 1919, that is, the H1N1 influenza pandemic more commonly
referred to as Spanish Flu, exactly and by great chance, a hundred years
ago. A worldwide pandemic is a very rare event, that is, a 1-in-100-years
event. That being the case, when a pandemic comes and is over, it will
soon go out of people’s memories overwhelmed by other important daily
matters of life. And then it may not occur again in their lifetime.
The present author came to realize that the aforementioned Spanish
Flu pandemic broke out long before the publications of Irving Fisher’s
The Theory of Interest in 1930, J.M. Keynes’ The General Theory in 1934,
and Paul Samuelson’s Foundations of Economic Analysis in 1947, all of
which, along with other cherished publications in economics, opened a
golden age of economic analysis of the twentieth century (Fisher 1930,
Keynes 1936, Samuelson 1947). Because of this historical timeline of
major events, an inquiry into pandemic problems in economics has, by
and large, escaped economists’ careful attention.
A big merit of this book is that it was being written right at the depths
of the COVID-19 pandemic, to be specific, from April 2020 to October
2021. The book was written while the memories of the present author and
the global community were still very fresh on a myriad of day-to-day hap-
penings across the globe during the COVID-19. Owing to the commit-
ment to write this book, it was natural, although highly unusual, for the
present author to keep close eyes on such a big matrix of actions and
experiences during the pandemic.
Economists have come to contact with pandemic events intellectually
via the study of globally shared goods, commonly referred to as global
commons or global public goods. The economics of globally shared goods
has reached today’s prominence in academia and has established a solid
intellectual tradition during the past three decades, both of which are
largely attributable to its contributions to the planet’s climate change
debates and negotiations (Nordhaus 1994). The economics of pandemics
as a globally shared good, which is one of the two afore-declared goals of
this book, is a special area of the economics of globally shared goods and
has not yet come about in the literature.
 PREFACE ix

If you have lived through the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021,
I believe most of the readers of this book have, then you would certainly
have witnessed that fear, control, and big governmental hands over-
whelmed reason and rationality in nearly all major decisions in those two
years. This book hopes to offer to the readers a lucid exposition of a com-
plex pandemic universe with a calm rational economic mind. For those of
you who have passed through the pandemic as a teenager or a pre-­teenager,
this book hopes to offer you a full account of a myriad of tiny and big deci-
sions faced and made by humanity, which is hoped to serve as a reminder
of what really happened in those two years.
Lastly, I would like to express my gratitude to the anonymous reviewers
who offered invaluable comments on the proposal at an early stage of this
book. I owe thanks to Wyndham H. Pain, Ruby Panigrahi, Srishti Gupta,
and other editorial team members at Palgrave Macmillan for their support
and outstanding editorial works in producing this book.

Bangkok, Thailand S. Niggol Seo

References
Fisher, Irving. 1930. The Theory of Interest. New York, NY: Macmillan.
Keynes, John. M. 1936. The General Theory on Employment, Interest and Money.
London: Palgrave Macmillan.
Samuelson, Paul A. 1947. Foundations of Economic Analysis. Cambridge, MA:
Harvard University Press.
Nordhaus, William D. 1994. Managing the Global Commons. Cambridge, MA:
The MIT Press.
 Contents

1 The COVID-19 Pandemic as a Globally Shared Experience:

An Introduction  1

2 Pandemic Economics: Essential Features and Outstanding

Questions 45

3 Pandemic Analysis I: Global Governance for a Global

Pandemic? 85

4 Pandemic Analysis II: Governmental Actions During the

Pandemic—Lockdown or No Lockdown?115

5 Pandemic Analysis III: The Great Reset, People’s

Uprisings, and Other Radical Change Proposals155

6 Pandemic Analysis IV: Is the COVID-19 Pandemic a

Doomsday Scenario for Climate Change?179

7 Pandemic Analysis V: The Science and Economics of a

Vaccine for Ending the Pandemic199

xi
xii Contents

8 The Economics of Pandemics as a Globally Shared

Experience: A Theory233

9 Some Yet Unresolved Questions and Mysteries About the

COVID-19 Pandemic283

Index305
 About the Author

Professor S. Niggol Seo is a natural resource economist who specializes

in the study of global warming and globally shared goods. He holds a PhD
in Environmental and Natural Resource Economics from Yale University
(May 2006) with a dissertation on microbehavioral models of global
warming. Since 2003, he has worked on various World Bank projects on
climate change in Africa, Latin America, and Asia. He held Professor posi-
tions in the UK, Spain, and Australia from 2006 to 2015. Seo has pub-
lished over a hundred (peer-reviewed) articles on global warming
economics, which includes eight books. He received an Outstanding
Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy Article Award from the
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) in Pittsburgh in
June 2011. He is the editor-in-chief of the Handbook of Behavioural
Economics and Climate Change to be published in 2022.

xiii
 List of Figures

Fig. 1.1 COVID-19 confirmed cases (world, cumulative, as of end

January 2021) 2
Fig. 1.2 COVID-19 confirmed deaths (world, cumulative, as of end
January 2021) 2
Fig. 1.3 The SARS-CoV-2 6
Fig. 1.4 The daily number of COVID-19 fatalities (world) 10
Fig. 1.5 The number of total cases by country across the planet (as of
early February 2021) 11
Fig. 1.6 The number of fatalities by country across the planet (as of early
February 2021) 12
Fig. 1.7 The unemployment rate spike in the US 13
Fig. 1.8 The daily number of protests and riots in the US during 2020 29
Fig. 1.9 The daily number of riots in the US during 2020 29
Fig. 2.1 A weakest-link production function 57
Fig. 2.2 A breakdown of the cost of a treatment in the national health
insurance system 69
Fig. 2.3 The impact of COVID-19 on GDP growth rate in the US 73
Fig. 2.4 Policy dilemma and economic outcomes: lockdown or not
lockdown?75
Fig. 3.1 WHO annual budget allocation for 2020–2021 93
Fig. 3.2 A Diagram of Key decisions of the WHO 94
Fig. 3.3 The effects of the WHO key decisions on national policies 102
Fig. 4.1 A portfolio of key decisions by the government 120
Fig. 4.2 Number of COVID-19 infection cases in Taiwan 122
Fig. 4.3 Number of COVID-19 infection cases in Thailand 123
Fig. 4.4 COVID-19 cases and deaths in remote small islands (as of
December 19, 2020) 125

xv
xvi List of Figures

Fig. 4.5 Social public health measures versus modes of transmission 127
Fig. 4.6 Effectiveness of mask mandates in US state health outcomes (as
of March 10, 2021) 130
Fig. 4.7 The effects of the US lockdowns on the pandemic spread 134
Fig. 4.8 The relative performance of the lockdown versus the
no-lockdown135
Fig. 4.9 Policy approaches for economic relief 137
Fig. 5.1 Radical social change movements during the COVID-19 156
Fig. 6.1 A hypothesis on the connection between climate change and
pandemics by advocates 183
Fig. 6.2 Annual changes in global CO2 emissions (GtCO2): 1990–2020 186
Fig. 6.3 Reduction in weekly energy demands (Q1, 2020) by
COVID-19 policy regimes 187
Fig. 6.4 Changes in monthly oil demands in 2020 relative to 2019
(mb/day)188
Fig. 6.5 Change in monthly CO2 emissions in 2020 relative to 2019
(GtCO2/month)189
Fig. 6.6 Death tolls from flu and malaria versus coronaviruses (as of the
end of April 2021) 191
Fig. 7.1 The coronavirus entering and killing the healthy cell 203
Fig. 7.2 Creating antibody to fight the coronavirus 204
Fig. 7.3 Four dimensions of vaccine economics 221
Fig. 7.4 The trend after the vaccine shots in the US (total cumulative
cases). (Source: JHU 2020) 225
Fig. 7.5 The trends after the vaccine shots across different vaccination
rates (total cumulative cases). (Source: JHU 2020) 225
Fig. 7.6 Vaccine effects by May 1, 2021: India versus the UK. (Source:
JHU 2020) 226
Fig. 7.7 Fully vaccinated (% of population by August 10, 2021) 227
Fig. 7.8 A trajectory of people vaccinated as percentage of population
(as of September 25, 2021) 228
Fig. 8.1 The number of countries with new infections at each week 236
Fig. 8.2 Economic actors in the pandemic 238
Fig. 8.3 The four fault lines in the pandemic decisions 241
Fig. 8.4 Annual total health expenditure per capita across the countries 252
Fig. 8.5 COVID-19 mortalities by age cohorts (January 1, 2020–
February 20, 2021) 253
Fig. 8.6 COVID-19 mortalities by comorbidities (January 1, 2020–
February 20, 2021) 254
Fig. 8.7 Key comparative statistics of the national health systems 259
 List of Figures  xvii

Fig. 8.8 The COVID-19 outcomes versus national health systems (as of
February 26, 2021) 260
Fig. 8.9 An illustration of a backstop technology 263
Fig. 9.1 The four hypotheses on the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 287
Fig. 9.2 The five factors that could explain the high damage in the West 291
Fig. 9.3 Remarkable outcomes in Southeast Asia (as of March 7, 2021) 294
Fig. 9.4 The number of COVID-19 mortalities, US 296
Fig. 9.5 Mortality by smallpox versus COVID-19 by age cohorts 297
 List of Tables

Table 1.1 Influenza pandemics in human history 8

Table 1.2 COVID-19 restrictions in the US (as of November 25, 2020) 15
Table 1.3 School closures, world (as of April 30, 2020) 17
Table 1.4 Domestic violence and suicide during the COVID-19 20
Table 2.1 Public goods versus infectious diseases 53
Table 2.2 Production technologies as per pandemic outcomes 55
Table 2.3 WHO priority diseases, current (WHO 2018) 61
Table 2.4 Expected mortalities and economic losses from influenza
pandemic65
Table 2.5 Performances of the national health systems under the
COVID-1971
Table 3.1 WHO in the United Nations system 86
Table 3.2 Milestones of the WHO in its 70th anniversary 91
Table 3.3 The COVID-19 timeline of the WHO 96
Table 4.1 A COVID-19 timeline of US governmental actions until the
first vaccine shot 119
Table 4.2 Medical responses under the Defense Production Act (DPA) 141
Table 4.3 FDA’s emergency use authorizations for COVID-19
treatments in 2020 143
Table 4.4 Operation Warp Speed (OWS) funding 147
Table 5.1 The COVID-19 economic/health impact divergence models 170
Table 7.1 Three types of coronaviruses 202
Table 7.2 Vaccines (selected) for major infectious diseases 207
Table 7.3 Vaccine types and candidates 209
Table 7.4 A timeline of vaccine success announcements, authorizations,
and side effects 214
Table 7.5 The operation warp speed funding 216

xix
xx List of Tables

Table 7.6 The lists of WHO priority diseases in 2018 and 2015 (WHO
2018)220
Table 7.7 Vaccine shots given per 100 people by country 224
Table 8.1 The decision array by economic actors during the pandemic 239
Table 9.1 Comparative COVID-19 statistics across nations (as of March
7, 2021) 290
Table 9.2 Death rate from lung diseases in Asia versus the West (WHO
2019)292
 CHAPTER 1

The COVID-19 Pandemic as a Globally

Shared Experience: An Introduction

1   The COVID-19 Pandemic Overwhelms

the Planet

At the time when the present author started to write this book in mid-­
April 2020, the world was already in the depths of the global pandemic
caused by the novel coronavirus. The disease was named the COVID-19,
short for Corona Virus Disease of 2019, and declared a pandemic by the
World Health Organization (WHO) in the preceding month (WHO
2020a). First reported from Wuhan, China, on the last day of 2019, the
novel coronavirus had quickly spread to Asian neighbors, Europe, and the
US. As of April 2020, over 2.5 million people worldwide were tested posi-
tive and about 180,000 people lost their lives. Many state governments in
the US declared a statewide lockdown since late March and nearly all busi-
nesses in the US were advised or forced to close during April. By the
middle of August 2020, the number of people infected passed 22.3 mil-
lion and the total number of fatalities was near 800,000 worldwide.
Entering November of that year, the third wave of the COVID-19 hit the
world spurred by the winter cold temperature. By the end of January
2021, the number of infections passed 100 million (Fig. 1.1) and the
number of the dead topped 2.2 million (Fig. 1.2) worldwide (JHU 2021).
By early July 2021, the number of the dead was near 4 million worldwide
as the Delta (Indian) variant started to become a dominant strain.

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature 1

Switzerland AG 2022
S. N. Seo, The Economics of Pandemics,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-91021-1_1
2 S. N. SEO

Fig. 1.1 COVID-19 confirmed cases (world, cumulative, as of end January 2021)

Fig. 1.2 COVID-19 confirmed deaths (world, cumulative, as of end

January 2021)
 1 THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AS A GLOBALLY SHARED EXPERIENCE… 3

Before we proceed further, let me clarify one thing. To deliver vivid

lively descriptions of the happenings during the pandemic, this book has
been written with anchors at several critical points in time during 2020
and 2021. The most important reference date is mid-December 2020
when the first vaccine shot was administered. Readers may refer to Fig. 7.6
in Chap. 7 for the fourth wave trend and to Fig. 7.7 in Chap. 7 for the
fifth wave trend of the case and fatality data in 2021.
The year 2020 was overwhelmed by the rapid contagion of the novel
coronavirus, named the SARS-CoV-2, among the planet’s population ever
since it was first reported and confirmed. As Figs. 1.1 and 1.2 reveal, the
daily increase in the number of infections of the pandemic virus has not
been slowed down by the beginning of February 2021, neither has the
daily increase in the number of deaths globally.
As deadly as the novel coronavirus has been in terms of the numbers of
infections and fatalities, the suffering that people on the planet have
endured in the first two years of the pandemic was far beyond what these
statistics can inform. Through government orders, people were forced to
remain in a sustained lockdown multiple times; infected individuals were
isolated; the people who were in close proximity to an infected individual
were forced to enter into a quarantine period (White House 2020; NYT
2020). Businesses and shops were ordered to close, making many small
businesses unable to pay the building rent or let go of their employees.
Ordered school closures forced children to remain at their homes for
many months resorting to distance online learning (UNESCO 2020).
International travel to and from most countries was suspended during
2020. Senior citizens at nursing homes were defenseless against the lethal
virus, often getting infected en masse and often fatally (NYT 2021a). When
a person died from the virus attack, family members and relatives were not
allowed to observe the funeral of the dead because of the extremely high
contagiousness of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. In developing countries, dead
bodies were often piled up in a town commons remotely located, burned
collectively, or buried all together without any notice to their families.
With the lack of hospital beds or the lack of family resources, infected fam-
ily members were sometimes abandoned on the remote town corners.
The economic shock caused by the pandemic was very severe, if not
unparalleled. As all businesses, except a small number of government-­
defined “essential businesses” such as postal service, delivery service, and
public transportations, were ordered to close, the US unemployment rate
in the second quarter (Q2) of 2020 shot up alarmingly. A historically low
4 S. N. SEO

unemployment rate, which stood at 3.5% in the US before the pandemic,

increased sharply to 14.5% in April 2020 (USBLS 2020). The Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) growth, which stood at 2.4% in the fourth
quarter (Q4) of 2019, fell precipitously to -31.4% in the second quarter
(Q2) of 2020 (USBEA 2020). When the COVID-19 pandemic appeared
to be over by the end of May 2020, most businesses returned but were
ordered to operate at a limited capacity. While some businesses, for exam-
ple, Big Tech companies such as Google, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook
flourished during the pandemic, small businesses, restaurant services,
hotel services, and travel businesses were among the hardest hit by the
pandemic.
A shock on individuals’ lives and civil liberty may have been even more
acute across the planet. It started with a universal mask mandate on all citi-
zens at all places to which many people resisted. A national lockdown
prevented people from talking to their next-door neighbors (NYT 2020).
The governments then started to keep track of every citizen as part of a
contact tracing program. All restaurants and cafes were ordered to keep a
register of visitors with their contact mobile numbers recorded. Then, all
benches and pavilions in streets and parks were ordered off-limits and
sealed off. A group of people gathering for a protest against a government
policy was soon banned and prosecuted. In-person church and religious
services in many parts of the world were prohibited by law because these
events were considered super-spreader events (WSJ 2020). Despite the
empirical data that showed school children were mostly unaffected by the
virus, primary and secondary schools were not able to open because of the
opposition by the teachers’ unions (Marianno 2021).
At another realm of the planet, an extreme social unrest was unfolding
simultaneously, specifically in the US, ignited by the racial tension between
the police force and Black people. At the peak in May and June of 2020
during which the novel coronavirus was spreading at an alarming rate
across the planet but silently, there were over 300 protests per day staged
simultaneously across the US, of which nearly 100 protests per day were
categorized as a violent riot (US Crisis Monitor 2020).
It is considered a miracle by many that two highly effective mRNA vac-
cines were successfully developed and approved for emergency use in just
about nine months and before the close of 2020. A Pfizer-BioNTech vac-
cine was authorized for emergency use on December 7 by the US Food
and Drug Administration (FDA) and a Moderna vaccine was authorized a
week later (USFDA 2020a, 2020b). By February 1, 2021, nearly all
Another random document with
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le ciel trop pur, la moindre vapeur se change en nuage dans
l’imagination des porteños…
Chaque été les chaleurs trop fortes sont heureusement
tempérées par des averses diluviennes grâce auxquelles on supporte
des températures très élevées sans malaises. Les vieux Argentins
prétendent même qu’autrefois, — cet autrefois si vague et si
commode dont abusent les vieilles gens, — autrefois, donc, il faisait
encore plus chaud, et que les hivers se distinguaient à peine des
printemps et des automnes. Je m’imagine que le climat a moins
changé qu’ils ne le croient, et que, simplement, les méthodes de
chauffages s’étant perfectionnées, on est devenu plus frileux dès
qu’on les a employées. Dans beaucoup de familles le préjugé règne
encore « que le feu rend malade », et on voit des dames recevoir
leurs amies, une fourrure sur les épaules et les mains dans un
manchon, tandis que le thermomètre marque six degrés dans leur
salon et que la cheminée bâille de tout son âtre vide !
Par bonheur, la chère Mamita est plus moderne dans ses idées, et
elle a fait installer le chauffage central dans notre grande maison de
Buenos-Aires, et même dans l’appartement de la tante Victoria qui a
commencé par pousser des cris d’indignation vite étouffés par une
sensation de bien-être et de confortable.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

L’été s’écoule paisible et charmant, dans des causeries, des

lectures, des visites à l’estancia que mon Pío n’abandonne jamais
quinze jours de suite, et dans la douceur d’une intimité familiale que
je n’avais jamais connue. Nous sommes indépendants les uns des
autres, et cependant unis, la liberté individuelle est sauvegardée,
chacun fait ce qui lui plaît, mais un lien profond nous relie. Nos amis
ne sont pas ceux de Mamita, elle leur fait pourtant bon visage
lorsque nous les recevons, et quand ses amis à elle viennent la voir,
nous les accueillons de notre mieux. Je me laisse aller
délicieusement au charme de cette vie de paix et d’amour, et le seul
nuage qui obscurcisse mon bonheur, c’est le départ de mes cousins,
fixé au mois de mai… Ils vont me manquer, ces chers compagnons
de la plus triste période de ma vie, et de la plus heureuse… Leur
affection est si sûre, si loyale ; ils ont adouci mes misères et partagé
ma joie, nous avons espéré, et quelquefois pleuré ensemble… J’ai
essayé de les retenir, et de leur persuader qu’ils devaient rester avec
moi jusqu’au moment où Georges sera forcé de retourner à ses
mines, mais ils m’ont donné tant de bonnes raisons à leur départ,
que j’ai compris que je devais sacrifier mon égoïsme et cesser
d’insister.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

L’automne ; les feuilles des peupliers sont comme des pièces d’or,
et nos rosiers ne fleurissent plus ; le ciel est pâle, les branches des
saules trempent maintenant dans les ríos dont les eaux grossissent
et se troublent, mais l’air est si doux, le soleil si clément, et la
tiédeur des soirs si caressante que nous prolongeons notre séjour
presque jusqu’au départ de Georges et de Marthe. Les heures de
cette saison divine me paraissent trop courtes, j’en goûte la douceur
attendrie avec le chagrin de les voir s’écouler.
Le printemps est souvent pluvieux ici, l’été quelquefois est
torride, et l’hiver frissonne de temps en temps au souffle du
pampero, mais l’automne est la saison sans rivale, elle n’a pas la
mélancolie de l’automne d’Europe, et l’année solaire meurt sans
laisser soupçonner que la mort appelle la corruption…
Il faut rentrer pourtant… Nous faisons une dernière promenade,
et nous disons au revoir aux beaux arbres, à l’eau tranquille et à nos
souvenirs…

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Pendant notre absence de Buenos-Aires, on a loué la petite

maison où Pío est venu tant de fois me voir l’hiver dernier, et où
Marthe a si souvent eu « justement besoin d’écrire à Georges »… Les
meubles auxquels nous tenons sont chez Mamita qui donne
l’hospitalité à mes cousins jusqu’à leur départ. En général, les
demeures sont si vastes que des familles de douze ou quinze
personnes s’y logent sans gêne ; il y a plusieurs salons, deux au
moins, un grand et un petit, plusieurs salles de bains, les
domestiques eux-mêmes ont les leurs. On bâtit maintenant quelques
petites maisons comme celle que nous habitions, et quelques
maisons de rapport divisées en appartements, mais ce sont presque
toujours des étrangers qui les habitent, les familles argentines sont
trop nombreuses et trop habituées à l’espace pour s’y entasser.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Georges vient de la Compagnie maritime où il a retenu son

passage et celui de Marthe sur un magnifique paquebot français :
« Le Sauveterre » ; les plans du navire l’ont séduit, et il est joyeux à
l’idée qu’enfin les vapeurs français rivalisent avec les anglais, les
allemands et les italiens qui ont créé de véritables palais flottants.
Le navire est arrivé, et pendant les cinq jours qu’il est resté dans
le port, il a été permis de le visiter. Pío a voulu voir comment nos
chers voyageurs allaient être installés, nous avons parcouru le
bateau tout entier, nous l’avons trouvé confortable et même
somptueux, le personnel nous a paru correct, et la cabine de
Georges et de Marthe ne laisse rien à désirer. Pendant que nous
causions sur le pont avec un aimable officier qui nous avait guidés
complaisamment, on a apporté les malles marquées aux initiales de
mes cousins, et parmi elles, j’en ai reconnu une que j’ai prêtée à
Marthe, et sur laquelle j’ai retrouvé mon nom… mon nom d’avant…
d’avant l’Argentine… d’avant le bonheur…

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

La voiture nous emporte tous les cinq vers le port, car Mamita a
tenu à venir accompagner ses neveux d’adoption : c’est une
coutume à laquelle on ne se dérobe jamais à Buenos-Aires. Comme
les paquebots sont à quai dans l’immense bassin, les amis et les
parents des passagers restent avec eux jusqu’à la dernière minute…
Dans les troisièmes classes, on chante : ce sont des Italiens qui
retournent dans leur patrie, après avoir travaillé aux champs
pendant les récoltes. Ils ont gagné de quoi faire vivre leur famille
une année, et ils reviendront dès qu’ils auront besoin d’argent, pour
s’en aller encore, jusqu’au jour où la femme et les enfants se
décideront à les accompagner, et s’installeront avec eux pour
toujours sur la terre libre et féconde qui les enrichira. Une foule
pressée a envahi les ponts, les salons, les corridors, la salle à
manger… On apporte des fleurs, des bonbons, des cadeaux, on
pleure, on rit, on promet, on refuse, des affaires s’ébauchent ou se
concluent pendant qu’on boit le traditionnel champagne des adieux,
c’est une confusion, un brouhaha étourdissants ! Des enfants se
faufilent entre les jambes, s’égarent, se retrouvent, un pick-pocket
est emmené discrètement, les officiers sont débordés, le
commandant se cache, on cherche une valise égarée… et, tout à
coup, la cloche sonne… il faut s’en aller…
Comme les autres visiteurs, je descends par la passerelle en me
retournant cent fois ; comme les autres, je me tamponne les yeux
avec mon mouchoir ; comme les autres, je me promets de me
sauver avant que le navire s’écarte du quai… et comme les autres, je
reste pour le voir partir !
C’est affreusement long, ce départ, cet arrachement… Je vois
Marthe, les bras chargés de fleurs, et Georges écrasé de paquets
apportés par des amis au dernier moment ; ils s’appuient contre le
bastingage et me sourient les yeux humides…
— A bientôt !… crie Marthe d’une voix déjà lointaine…
— A bientôt !… répond Pío, car la voix me manque, et mon cher
mari a senti de quelle émotion je suis bouleversée…
Le bateau est sorti du port, et laissant Mamita rentrer avec la
voiture, nous revenons à pied par les rues d’un Buenos-Aires matinal
et grouillant que je ne connaissais pas encore et dont les mille bruits
me distraient de mon chagrin. Les petits vendeurs de journaux
bondissent sur les plates-formes des tramways en marché en criant :
La Prensa !… La Nacion !… La Argentina… d’une voix perçante ; les
marchands de marée offrent avec une espèce de chant de gros
poissons irisés et des crevettes roses énormes qui débordent des
corbeilles équilibrées par une perche sur leur épaule, le marchand de
pommes de terre, le marchand de salades, s’égosillent en traînant
leurs charrettes à bras… des gamins joufflus appellent de toutes
leurs forces « l’empanadero » et trépignent de leurs petits pieds nus,
lorsqu’il leur apporte, dans son panier couvert, les pâtés dorés pleins
de viande ou de légumes, en hurlant : Empanadas !… Empanadas !…
Des Turcs proposent d’un ton plaintif des savons, des miroirs, des
tire-bouchons et des foulards qu’ils promènent sur des tréteaux… De
robustes commères, en robe flottante, discutent bruyamment autour
d’une voiturette de fleurs…
Nous approchons de chez nous, mes yeux se brouillent encore de
larmes :
— Soyez raisonnable, ma chérie, me dit mon mari en pressant
mon bras sous le sien, et ne pleurez plus. Vous savez bien que s’ils
ne revenaient pas, nous irions les chercher, et que, lorsqu’ils s’en
retourneront la prochaine fois, nous partirons avec eux… Avez-vous
peur de la vie à mes côtés ? Regrettez-vous de me rendre heureux ?
Je levai les yeux pour rencontrer le regard de Pío :
— « Ton pays sera mon pays… ta maison sera ma maison… »

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

L’affection maternelle de Mamita et l’amour de mon mari ont

trouvé mille ressources pour me rendre moins pénibles les jours qui
ont suivi le départ de mes cousins. J’accompagne Mamita aux
comités des innombrables œuvres de charité qu’elle préside, et Pío
me conduit dans le monde. La saison a recommencé, nos amis et
nos parents sont revenus, et demain, nous célébrerons la fête
nationale Argentine, la fête du 25 mai…
 Il y a donc un an que je suis arrivée ici, un an seulement… un an
déjà ! Je regarde ce boudoir qui m’appartient, j’entends un faible son
de piano qui vient du salon de Mamita ; de l’autre côté de la galerie,
c’est l’appartement silencieux où la tante Victoria marche à pas
feutrés… Tout à l’heure, Pío entrera, il s’assoira sur ce petit fauteuil,
et nous parlerons de ce qu’il a fait aujourd’hui, de ce que j’ai fait
moi-même, de notre chère estancia, des amis… de notre amour… Ma
vie est là, je ne souhaite plus rien… Si ! il y a une chose que je désire
de toutes mes forces, c’est que, de l’autre côté de l’Océan, dans
mon pays aimé, on connaisse mieux ma seconde patrie !
Et pour la connaître, il faut vivre sur nos sol, se mêler à ses fils,
explorer ses solitudes vierges ! Elle est fière de sa jeune grandeur,
mais elle accepte les leçons du passé, elle a l’orgueil de son effort,
mais il ne l’a pas rendue vaine, et elle accueille les Français avec les
mots qu’ils aiment, et auxquels elle croit : Liberté, Égalité,
Fraternité !

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Du soleil, le ciel bleu, et de la joie… c’est le 25 Mai…

A toutes les fenêtres flottent les drapeaux bleus et blancs, le
canon tonne, des groupes passent en chantant, la cocarde bleue et
blanche à la boutonnière ou au corsage, des délégations d’écoles, de
corps de métiers, de Facultés défilent… les automobiles marquent le
pas derrière d’humbles breaks mouchetés de la boue des routes
campagnardes, voici le coupé discret de l’Archevêque, des gauchos
passent au pas léger de leurs chevaux…
Devant nos fenêtres, la vaste place où s’élève la statue de San-
Martin, fourmille déjà de centaines d’enfants qui vont chanter tout à
l’heure le chant national argentin en l’honneur du héros de
l’Indépendance…

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
 La foule s’est rangée sans un cri, sans une querelle, recueillie et
attentive, et dans l’air frais du matin, dans la limpidité de ce beau
jour d’hiver, s’unissent des voix pures, nettes, aiguës. L’hymne
patriotique monte vers le ciel clair, et les petits visages se lèvent vers
l’effigie du héros, tout enflammés d’ardeur et d’amour…
Mamita pleure d’émotion, et je sens ma gorge se serrer, quand
un des plus petits enfants vient déposer une palme dorée sur le
socle de bronze…
Un homme parle au pied de la statue, nous distinguons chaque
mot. Il dit la vie de San-Martin, cette vie d’héroïsme et de misère, et
l’admirable élan de celui qui « donna des ailes aux canons », en leur
faisant passer l’Ande infranchissable : il dit aussi ce que fut l’épouse
de ce soldat sans pair, la douce compagne aux boucles brunes, dont
le cœur menaçait de se briser à chaque bataille, et qui masquait ses
angoisses par des sourires ; il évoque Fray Beltrán, le moine guerrier,
qui s’improvisa fondeur et fit des pièces d’artillerie avec les cloches
des couvents, les dames de Mendoza, donnant leurs bijoux et leur
argenterie pour payer la nourriture des soldats, et gâtant leurs belles
mains à coudre de rudes vêtements, les Puyrredon, les Brandzen, les
Lavalle, tous… tous… l’un d’eux était Français, dit-il…
Je tressaille d’orgueil… là où on se bat pour une juste cause, n’y
a-t-il pas toujours au moins un Français ?
La cérémonie est finie, la voix virile qui vient d’exalter l’amour de
la patrie en paroles brûlantes s’est tue.
La place est vide… mais le socle de la statue disparaît sous les
fleurs…

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Nous allons à pied chercher Carmen et Carlos avec lesquels nous

assisterons à la revue. A peine si l’on peut circuler… des provinces
lointaines sont venus des gens basanés et graves ; Rosario, port des
céréales, Tucuman, où la culture de la canne à sucre fait des
millionnaires, Mendoza dont les vignerons connaissent les grappes
du pays de Chanaan, Santa-Fé où les fortunes sont attachées au
bois incorruptible du Quebracho, Entre-Rios où roule l’or des
oranges, Rio-Negro qui fait croître des fourrages incomparables à
l’ombre des pêchers chargés de fruits, et Salta, et Jujuy… toutes les
régions sont représentées par des hommes vigoureux et actifs, et
des femmes joyeuses d’étaler en bijoux et en soies la richesse que
leurs maris tirent de la terre féconde… Les ouvriers se mêlent aux
bourgeois, les riches aux pauvres, on se sourit… les classes sociales
ne se haïssent pas : elles ne sont séparées que par quelques années
de labeur…
Des agents de police à cheval font ranger la foule : le président
de la République passe… il est précédé de beaux hommes à cheval,
vêtus de blanc et cuirassés, et suivi d’un détachement de soldats
dont l’uniforme rappelle celui des grenadiers du premier Empire… Le
régiment de San Martin.
Le flot humain qui noircit les rues se dirige vers l’endroit où les
troupes vont défiler et manœuvrer… Nous sommes dans une tribune,
et je suis à la lorgnette toutes les évolutions militaires… Au loin,
sonnent les cuivres, et l’on voit passer comme une trombe les
cavaliers soudés à leur selle… voici les fantassins en vêtements
sombres… leurs bottes jaunes marquent un pas impeccable… les
artilleurs se balancent sur les affûts des canons qui luisent au soleil…
le train des équipages, ses fourgons, ses mules… des brassards
blancs marqués d’une croix rouge… le drapeau !
Et tous, tous, depuis le président de la République jusqu’au plus
humble, jusqu’au plus nouveau citoyen, saluent d’une acclamation
formidable ce chiffon sacré sur lequel entre les deux couleurs
candides, se lève un jeune et rayonnant soleil !

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Nous traversons de nouveau la ville, les boutiques sont fermées

et la foule est plus nombreuse encore qu’avant la revue ; les voitures
ne circulent plus, des bouquetières vendent des fleurs bleues et
blanches, on achète des cocardes, des médailles, des plaquettes
émaillées, des pères portent sur leurs épaules de petits enfants à
moitié endormis… On attend les illuminations, et voici déjà que les
premières guirlandes de lampes électriques commencent à briller
aux frontons des monuments…
Nous rentrons pour nous habiller avant d’aller au théâtre Colón
où se donne la représentation de gala…

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Un brouillard de poussière lumineuse plane sur Buenos-Aires,

nous arrivons au Colón, non sans peine, et me voici dans la loge de
Carlos Navarro, cette même loge d’où j’ai vu pour la première fois
ceux qui sont maintenant presque tous mes amis, et dont plusieurs
sont mes parents… je suis assise entre l’amie qui m’a accueillie et le
mari qui m’a donné son nom et sa vie…
Je regarde Délia Ortiz de Marino, Lucia Iturri de Hansburg,
Léonor Cruz de Valdeña, Gloria Villalba, leurs beaux visages me
sourient familièrement… il me semble que nous avons grandi
ensemble…
Toute la salle est debout : l’orchestre joue l’hymne Argentin…
Pío voit que mes yeux se remplissent de larmes ; il me dit tout
bas en serrant ma main :
— Vive la France !
Et je lui réponds en joignant ma voix à toutes celles qui poussent
un cri d’espoir et d’amour :
— Viva la República Argentina !

FIN
*** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK UNE FRANÇAISE EN
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