Discrete

Probability
 MODULE 2: Discrete Probability, Continuous Probability Distribution & Joint Probability Distribution

Probability and Counting Rules

Introduction: Probability is defined as the chance of an event occurring, like playing games of chance, cards, slot
machines and even lottery. Probability is also used in insurance and weather forecasting. This is also a basis of
inferential statistic where predictions are based on probability and hypotheses are tested using probability. The
concepts of probability includes probability experiments sample spaces, the rule of counting, the difference
between permutation and combination for specific situation. Counting rules and Probability rules can be used to
solve a variety of problems.

Counting Rule

Fundamental Counting Rule

Sum Rule: Suppose that an event can be performed by either of two different procedures with m
possible outcomes for the first procedure and n possible outcomes for the second. If the two sets of possible
outcomes are disjoint, then the number of possible outcomes for the event is
!+#
Example:
A scholarship is available, the student to receive this scholarship must be chosen from the BSCE, BSEE,
and BSME. How many different choices are there for this scholarship is there are 15 qualified students from BSCE,
25 qualified students from BSEE, and 30 qualified students from BSME?
Solution:
The procedure of choosing a student from BSCE has 15 possible outcomes, the procedure of choosing
a student from the BSEE has 25 possible outcomes, and the procedure of choosing a student from ME has 30
possible outcomes,
Therefore there are 15 +25+30 =70 possible choices to award the scholarship.

Product Rule: In a sequence of n events in which the first has #! possibilities and the second event
has #" , and the third has ## , and so forth, the total number of possibilities of the sequence will be
#! #" ## … . #$
Example: A student has a choice of 5 courses and 6 schools. In how many way can he choose 1 course
and 1 school?

5 courses and 6 schools, the required number of ways = 5*6 =30 ways

Factorial Notation: #! = #(# − 1)(# − 2)(# − 3) … (3 ∗ 2 ∗ 1)

a. 1!
b. 3!
c. 2!*3!
d. 6! -4!
e. 10!/5! =

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Permutation: A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a number of tings (or objects) in a definite order.
The number of permutation of n objects taken r at a time is given by:

#!
0(#, 2) = # 0 2 = 0≤2≤#
(# − 2)!
Permutations with Repeated Elements. It often happens that objects which are virtually identical get arranged.
Our inability to distinguish between these items reduces the number of possible permutations by the number of
ways these identical items themselves can be arranged.

#!
0% = 5ℎ727 #! + #" + ## = #
#! !, #" ! ## !
Circular Permutations; when things are arranged in places along a closed curve or a circle, in which any place
may be regarded as the first or last place, they form a circular permutations. Thus with n distinguishable objects
we have (n-1)! Arrangements.

0& = (# − 1)!
Example: How many different ways can a manager and a supervisor can be selected from a company branch in
Manila if there are 8 employees available?

8! 8.7.6.5.4.3.2.1
0(8,2) = = = 56 5=>? @A ?7B7C@ = !=#=D72 & ?FG72HI?A2
(8 − 2)! 6.5.4.3.2.1

Example: A business man wishes to rank only the top 3 of the 5 outlets. How many different ways he can rank
them?

5! 5∗4∗3∗2∗1
503 = = = 60 5=>?
(5 − 3)! 2∗1

Example: In how many ways can 5 student be seated at a round table?

0C = (5 − 1)! = 4 ∗ 3 ∗ 2 ∗ 1 = 24 5=>? A= =22=#DI#D 5 ?@FJ7#@? I# = CI2CB7

Example: there are 4 copies of Math books, 5 copies of English Books, and 3 copies of History Book. In how
many ways can they be arranged in a shelf?

#! 12!
0# = = = 27,720
#1!, #2!, #3! 4! ∗ 5! ∗ 3!

Combination is a grouping or selection of all or part of a number of thing or object without reference to the
arrangement of the things selected. The number of combinations of n objects taken r at a time is given by:

# #02 #!
K(#, 2) = # K 2 = L M = = , 0≤2≤#
2 2! ( # − 2)! 2!
Combinations of different things taken any number at a time, The total number combinations K# of n different
things taken 1, 2, 3…n at a time is K% = 2% − 1

Example: How many combinations of 4 objects are there taken 2 at a time?

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 4! 4.3.2.1 24
4K2= = = =6
(4 − 2)! 2! (2 ∗ 1)! ∗ (2 ∗ 1)! 2 ∗ 2

Example: A newspaper editor has received 8 books to review. He decides that he can use 3 reviews in his
newspaper. How many different ways can these 3 reviews be selected?

8! 8∗7∗6∗5∗4∗3∗2∗1
8 K 3 = 8! = = 56 GA??INIBI@I7?
(8 − 3)! ∗ 3! (5 ∗ 4 ∗ 3 ∗ 2 ∗ 1)(3 ∗ 2 ∗ 1)

Example: In a Club there are 7 women and 5 men. A committee of 3 women and 2 men is to be chosen. How
many different possibilities are there?

7! 5!
7K3 ∗ 5K2 = ∗O P = 350
(7 − 3)! ∗ 3! (5 − 2)! ∗ 2!

Sample Spaces and Probability

Probability Experiments includes processes such as flipping a coin. Rolling a die, drawing a card from a
deck. Probability Experiment is a chance that leads to well defined results of an outcome, while an outcome is
the result of a single trial of a probability experiment. A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of a
probability experiment.
EXAMPLES OF EXPERIMENTS, OUTCOMES, & SAMPLE SPACES
Experiments Outcomes Sample Spaces
Toss a coin once Head, Tail S={Head, Tail]
Toss a coin twice HH, HT, TH,TT S={HH, TH,HT, TT}
Roll a die 1,2,3,4,5,6 S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
Exam Result Pass, Fail S={Pass, Fail}
Game Result Win, Lose S={Win,Lose}

Example: Determine the sample space for rolling two dice.

Each die has 6 different ways, and a pair of dice are rolled, sample space can be presented by an array.

I 2 3 4 5 6

I Cil) Cl , 2) ( 1,3) ( 1. 4) ( ITS) ( 116)

2 Gil) (2,6)
360
.
. . .

4
5

6 (GD 66,6)
Example: Determine the sample space for drawing one card from ordinary deck of cards

4 suits (Diamonds, clubs, hearts and spades), 13 each suits, there are 52 outcomes in each sample
space for an ordinary deck of card.
O 1/52

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Example: Determine the sample space for the three true or false quiz. Use tree diagram to represent the sample
space.

1st Question TRUE FALSE

2nd Question TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE

3rd Question TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE TRUE FALSE

SIMPLE & COMPOUND EVENTS

EVENTS is a collection of one or more outcomes of an experiment, it may be simple event or a compound event.

A simple event is an event that includes one and only one of the outcomes for an experiments and is denoted
by E, (ELEMETARY EVENT)

COMPOUND EVENT is a collection of more than one outcome for an experiment; it is also called composite
event.

Example: One group of community, some are in favour of death penalty as a punishment for heinous crime while
others are against it. Three persons are selected at a random and asked whether they are in favour or against
death penalty. How many distinct outcomes are possible?
a. All three persons are in favour of death penalty.
b. At least one person is in favour of death penalty
c. Exactly one person is against death penalty.

LET F = favour of death penalty

A= against death penalty

FFF FAA
FFA AAF
FAF AFA
AFF AAA

a. All three persons are favour of death penalty includes only one of the eight outcomes – Simple event
b. At least one person is in favour of death penalty (the event includes more than one outcome –compound
event)
c. At least one person is in favour of death penalty {FFA, FAF, and AFF} this event includes more than one
outcome- compound event.

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PROBABILITY

Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that a specific event will occur. An event that cannot occur
has zero probability which is called an impossible event and if an event that is certain to occur has a probability
equal to 1 which is called auto
called sure event. There are four basic probability rule that will be helpful in solving
probability problems.
a. The probability of an event is within the range 0 to 1.
0 ≥ 0(R) ≥ 1
b. The sum of the probabilities of all simple events for an experiment is always 1.

For an experiment: ∑ 0R' = 0 (R! ) + 0 (R" ) + 0(R# ) + ⋯ = 1

c. If an event cannot occur, its probability is 0.

d. If an event is certain, then the probability is 1.

Complimentary Events. The complement of an event E is the set of outcomes in the sample space that are not
included in the outcome of event E. The complement of E is denoted by E’ (E prime). The rule for complementary
events are denoted by
0(R ( ) = 1 − 0(R ( ) A2 0(R) = 1 − 0(R ( ) A2 0(R) + 0(R ( ) = 1

Three Conceptual Approaches to Probability

A. Classical Probability. A classical Probability assumes that all outcomes in the space are equally likely
{*+,-./ 12 3+4&1,.5 '% 6} {%(6)}
to occur. 0(R) = {8149: %+,-./ 12 1+4&1,.5 '% 4;. 59,<:. 5<9&. =}
= {%(=)}

Example: A card is drawn from an ordinary deck of card. Find these probabilities
6 !
A. Getting King of hearts 0= =
= @"
!# !
B. Getting a spade 0 = @" = A
%(6) {AD(!#E!)} A
C. Getting a 5 or a clubs 0(5 A2 ?G=J7) = B%(=)C = @"
= !#
(Example of inclusive)

ADA "
D. Of Getting a 5 or 7 0= @"
= !#
(Example of Exclusive)

#(!#) #
E. of Getting a card which is not a spade 0 = @"
=A

F
F. of getting 11 of Clubs 0 = @" = 0

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B. Empirical or Relative Frequency Probability. Empirical Probability is the type of probability that uses frequency
distribution based on observations to determine numerical probabilities of events

{V27WF7#C> XA2 @ℎ7 KB=??} X

0(R) = =
@A@=B X27WF7#CI7? AX @ℎ7 JI?@2INF@IA# #
Example: Ina sample of 50 students, 18 are freshmen, 23 are sophomore, 2 junior and 7 senior. Set up a frequency
distribution and find the following probabilities:

!G H
a. A student is a freshmen 0 (V27?ℎ!7#) = @F = "@
A!
b. A student is a sophomore or a freshmen 0 (V A2 Z) = @F
{"#DI} #F #
c. A student is neither a freshmen nor a junior 0 (V A2 [ ) = @F
= @F = @
I A#
d. A student is not a senior 0 (#A@ = Z7#IA2) = 1 − \@F] = @F

C. Subjective Probability. A subjective Probability is the probability assigned to an event based on subjective
judgment, experience, information and belief. For example, a sportswriter may say that there is 90% probability
that San Sebastian Stags will win the NCAA championships. A physician may say that, on the basis of his
diagnosis, there is a probability that peso dollar exchange rate will decrease by 3 pesos.

Addition Rule & Multiplication Rules for Probability

Mutually Exclusive are always dependent

Two events A and B are mutually exclusive events if they cannot occur at the same time.

Independent are never mutually exclusive:

Two events A & B are independent events if the fact that A occurs does not affect the probability of B
occurring. A & B are independent events if
0(^ _) = 0(^) A2 0 (_ ^) = 0(_)
Dependent Events may not be mutually exclusive
Two events A and B are dependents events for which the outcome or occurrence of event A affects the
outcome or occurrence of event B in such way that the probability is change. In other words, A & B are dependent
events if
0 ^ _) ≠ 0(^) A2 0 ( _ ^ ) ≠ 0(_)

Addition Rules for Probability

Rule 1: When Two events A & B are mutually exclusive, the probability that A or B will occur is:
0 ( ^ A2 _) = 0(^) + 0(_)
0(Z) = 1
Rule 2: If A and B are not mutually exclusive, then

0( ^ A2 _) = 0(^) + 0(_) − 0(^ =#J _)

0(Z) = 1

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Example 1: A box contains 4 red marbles, 8 blue marbles, and 7 green marbles. If a person selects a marble at
random, find the probability that is either a red or green.

4 7 11
0(27J A2 D277# ) = 0(27J) + 0(D277#) = + = 7H7#@? =27 !F@F=BB> 7bCBF?IH7
19 19 19

Example 2: A single card is drawn from an ordinary deck of card. Find the probability that it is a queen or a diamond.
0(WF77# A2 JI=!A#J) = 0(c) + 0(dI=!A#J) − 0(c & dI=!A#J)
4 13 1 16 4
0= + −O P= =
52 52 52 52 13
Example 3: In a certain insurance company there are 20 senior salespersons and 30 junior salespersons, 8 senior
and 14 junior sales persons are male. If a sales persons is selected, find the probability that the salespersons is a
senior or a female.
Salesperson Male Female Total
Senior 8 12 20
Junior 14 16 30
22 28 50

0(Z7#IA2 A2 V7!=B7) = 0(Z7#IA2) + 0(V7!=B7) − 0(Z7#IA2 & V7!=B7)

20 28 12 36 18
0= + − = =
50 50 50 50 25

Multiplication Rule for Probability

The multiplication rules can be applied to determine the probability of two events that occur in sequence.
The probability of the intersection of two events is called joint probability. It is written as 0(^ =#J _). These rules
are for independent or dependent events.

Rule 1: When two events are independent, the probability of both occurring is
0(^ =#J _) = 0 (^) ∗ 0(_)
Rule 2: When two events are dependent, the probability of both occurring is
0(^ =#J _) = 0(^) ∗ 0( ^ _)
Rule 3: When two events are mutually exclusive their joint probability is always zero and B are two
mutually exclusive events, then
0 (^ =#J _) = 0

Examples: A die is rolled and a coin is flipped. Find the probability of getting 5 on the die and tail on the coin.

1 1 1
0( 5 =#J @=IB) = 0(5) ∗ 0(@=IB) = ∗ =
6 2 12
Example: A box contains 3 red ball, 8 blue balls and 9 green balls. A first ball is selected, and then it is replaced.
A second ball is selected. Find the probability of selecting
a. 2 red balls
# # H
0 (27J N=BB?) = "F ∗ "F = AFF
b. P (blue and green)
G H I" H
0( NBF7 =#J D277#) = "F ∗ "F = AFF = @F

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Example: A survey found that one out of 5 Filipinos say they are in favour of death penalty for heinous crimes. If
the people are selected at random, find the probability that all three will say they are in favour of death penalty.
1 1 1 1
0( d =#J d =#J d) = ∗ ∗ =
5 5 5 125
Example: A girl owns a collection of 25 bags, of which 6 are made by Guess. If the 2 bags are selected
at random, find the probability that both are Guess.
6 5 30 1
0(e! =#J e" ) = ∗ = =
25 24 600 20
Example: The RSS Financing INC, found that 50% of the members had salary loan (S) with the financing
company. Of these members 8% also had a calamity loan (C). If a member is selected at random, find the
probability that the member has both loans with the company.
0(Z =#J K) = 0( Z K) = 0.50 ∗ 0.08 = 0.04 A2 4%

MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES

A. Marginal Probability is a probability of a single event without consideration of any other event; it is also
called single probability. It can be computed using the formula
0(^) = 0(^ =#J _! ) + 0(^ =#J _" ) + ⋯ + 0(^ =#J _$ )

5ℎ727 _! , _" … _$ Are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events.

• Two events are mutually exclusive if both the events cannot occur simultaneous while collectively
exhaustive if one of the events must occur.

B. Conditional Probability is a probability that an event will occur given that another event has already
occurred. If A and B are two events, then the conditional probability is given as P(A/B) and reads as “The probability
if A given that B has already occurred” In Symbol,
J(K LMN O) J(O LMN K)
P (A/B) = ghi P (B/A) =
J(K) J(O)
Given that P (B) ≠ j ghi k(l) ≠ j

Example: A box contains blue and red balls. A person select two balls without replacement the probability of
selecting a blue ball and a red ball is 12/30, and the probability of selecting a blue ball on the first draw is 3/5, find
the probability of selecting a red ball on the second draw given that the first ball selected was a blue ball.
!"
0( _BF7 =#J m7J) #F 2
0(m _) = = # =
0(_BF7) 3
@
The probability of selecting a red ball on the second draw given that the first ball selected was blue is 2/3.

Example: In a fast food chain, 75% of the customers orders chicken meal. If 40% of the customer order chicken
meal and sundae, find the probability that the customer orders chicken meal will also order a sundae.
0(KℎICn7# =#J ZF#J=7) 40% 8
0( Z K) = = =
0 (K ) 75% 15
The customer has a probability of ordering sundae, given that he ordered chicken meal.

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Example: A survey conducted by SM asked 250 persons whether or not they have shopped on the Mall. The
following table give the two way classification of the responses.

Gender Have Shopped Have Never Shopped Total

Male 20 70 90
Female 130 30 160
Total 150 100 250

Supposed one person is selected at random from these 250 persons. Find the following probabilities:
a. The respondent answered has shopped, given that the respondent is male

"F
0(o =#J Z) "@F 2
0(Z o) = = HF =
0 (o ) 9
"@F
b. The respondent is a female, given that the respondents answered has never shopped.

#F
0(p V) \"@F] 3
0(X p) = = !FF =
0 (p) \ ] 10 "@F

RANDOM VARIABLES AND DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Frequency and Relative Frequency Distributions of the Number of TV’s owned by a certain City Families

Number of TV’s owned Frequency Relative Frequency

0 34 34/500=0.068
1 316 316/500=0.632
2 132 132/500=0.264
3 18 18/500=0.036
500 1.00

When one family is randomly selected from this population, the process of randomly selecting a family is called a
random or chance experiment. Let X denotes the number of TV’s owned by the selected family. X denotes the
number of TV’s owned by the selected family. X can assume any of the 4 possible values (0, 1, 2, 3) recorded in
the leftmost column of the table. The value of x depends on the family selected, this value depends on the outcome
of a random experiment. “X” is referred to random variable.
A random variable is a function or rule that assigns a number to each outcome of an experiment (Chance
Variable).
Random Variable can be discrete or Continuous. Discrete Random Variable assumes values that can be counted,
while discrete random variable that can assume all values between any two specific values, a variable obtained by
measuring or are contained one or more intervals.

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A discrete probability distribution consists of the values a random variable can assume and the corresponding
probabilities of the values. Probabilities are determined theoretically or by observation.

Requirements for a distribution of a discrete random variable. For a discrete random variable X that can assume
values Xi.
1. 0 ≤ 0(q) ≤ 1, XA2 =BB qI ( rℎ7 G2AN=NIBI@> sF@CA!7 I? N7@577# 0 =#J 1).
2. ∑%'P! 0(q' ) = 1 (rℎ7 ?F! AX =BB GA??INB7 AF@CA!7? I? 1.0)
3. The listing is exhaustive (All possible outcomes are included)
4. The outcomes are mutually exclusive (The outcomes occur at the same time)

Example: Construct a probability distribution for rolling a die

Outcome X 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability P(X) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6

Example: Construct a probability distribution for tossing three coins Let X represents number of tails.

The probability of getting no tail -

The probability of getting 1 tail -
The probability of getting 2 tails -
The probability of getting 3 tails -

Example: A wallet containing four P100 bills, two P200 bills, three P500 bills and one P1000 bill. Construct a
probability distribution for the data:

The Probability P(X)

For P100 bills - 4/10 =0.40

For P200 Bills - 2/10 =0.20
For P500 Bills - 3/10 =0.30
For P1K Bill - 1/10 =0.10

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Mean, Variance, Standard Deviation & mathematical Expectation

The mean variance, and standard deviation for a probability distribution are computed differently from the
mean, variance and standard deviation for samples. A new measure called expectation will also discuss
calculations for probability distribution.

Formula for the Mean of a Probability Distribution

The mean of a random variable with a discrete probability distribution is

t = q! ∗ 0(q! ) + q" ∗ 0(q" ) + q# ∗ 0(q# ) + ⋯ + q% ∗ 0(q% )

= u q ∗ 0(q)

Where q! , q" , q# , … q% are the outcomes and 0(q! ), 0(q" ), 0(q# ), … 0(q% ), are the
corresponding probabilities

∑ q ∗ 0(q) Means to sum the products.

Formula for the Variance of a Probability Distribution

Find the variance of a probability distribution by multiplying the square of each outcome by its
corresponding probability, summing those product, and subtracting the square of the mean. The
formula for the variance of a probability distribution is

v " = u{q " ∗ 0(q)} − t"

The standard deviation of a probability distribution is:

v = wv " A2 xu{q " ∗ 0(q)} − t"

Variance and Standard Deviation cannot be negative

The expected Value of a discrete random variable of a probability distribution is the

theoretical average of the variable. The formula is

t = R(q) = u q ∗ 0(q)

The symbol R(q) is used for the expected value

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Example: Five balls numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 are placed in a box. One is selected, its number is noted, and then it is
replaced. If this experiment is repeated many times, find the mean, variance and standard deviation of the number
of balls.

Number of ball X 1 2 3 4 5
Probability P(X) 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 1/5

! ! ! ! !
The mean is t = ∑ q ∗ 0(q) = 1 y@z + 2 y@z + 3 y@z + 4 y@z + 5 y@z = 3

The Variance is
v " = u{q " ∗ 0(q)} − t"

1 1 1 1 1
v " = u 1" O P + 2" O P + 3" O P + 4" O P + 5" O P − 3" = 2
5 5 5 5 5

The standard deviation

v = wv " = √2 = 1.4142

Example: Five hundred raffle tickets are sold at P25 each for three prizes of P4000, P2, 000 and P1000. After each
prize drawing, the winner ticket is then returned to the collection of tickets. What is the expected value if a person
purchases four tickets?

Gain X P3900 P1900 P999 -100

Probability P(X) 4/500 4/500 4/500 496/500
q ∗ 0(q)
4 4 4 496
t = R(q) = u = O3900 ∗ 500P + |1900 ∗ O500P} + |900 ∗ O500P} + |−100 ∗ O500P}
= 31 + 15.2 + 7.2 − 99.2 = −45.8

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BINOMIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

If the probabilities has only two outcomes or can be reduced to two outcomes (the outcomes are
considered as either success or failure these are called binomial experiment. A binomial experiment is a probability
experiment with the following requirements:

1. There must be a fixed trials.

2. Each trial can have only two outcomes and are mutually exclusive outcomes.

3. The outcomes of each trial are independent.

4. The probability of success is the same for each trial.

The outcomes of a binomial experiment and the corresponding probabilities of these outcomes are called a
binomial distribution.

BINOMIAL PROBABILITY FORMULA

In a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly X successes in n trial is

{#!}
0(q) = ∗ G Q ∗ W%ER
{(# − q)! q!

0(q) − _I#A!I=B G2AN=NIBI@> JI?@2INF@IA#

# = @ℎ7 #F!N72 AX @2I=B?

q = @ℎ7 #F!N72 AX AN?72H7J ?FCC7??7?

G = @ℎ7 G2AN=NIBI@> AX ?FCC7?? A# 7=Cℎ @2I=B

W = @ℎ7 G2AN=NIBI@> AX X=IBF27, XAF#J N> 1 − G

pA@7 @ℎ=@ 0 ≤ q ≤ # =#J q = 0, 1,2,3, … #

Example: A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the probability of getting exactly two heads

3! 1 " 1 #E" 3
0(2 ℎ7=J?) = ∗O P ∗O P = = 0.375
(3 − 2)! 2! 2 2 8

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Example: In a survey, 25% of the people interviewed said they bought their Refrigerator during the last six
months. If eleven people are selected at random, find the probability that exactly six of these people bought their
refrigerator during the last six months.

In this case # = 11, q = 6, G = 25% = 0.25 W = 1 − G = 0.75

11!
0(6) = ∗ (0.25)S ∗ (0.75)!!ES = 0.0268
(11 − 6)! 6!

rℎ7 G2AN=NIBI@> @ℎ=@ 7b=C@B> ?Ib AX G7AGB7 NAFDℎ@ = 27X27DI2=@A2

JF2I#D @ℎ7 B=?@ ?Ib !A#@ℎ? I? 0.0268

Example: The Department of Labor found that 83% of Filipinos think that having a college education is important
to succeed in life. If random of seven Filipinos is selected, find these probabilities:

a. Exactly four people will agree with the statement

#=7 q=4 G = 0.83 W = 0.17

7!
0(4) = ∗ (0.83)A (0.17)IEA = 0.0816
(7 − 4)! 4!

b. At most two people will agree with that statement.

# = 7 G = 0.83 W = 0.17 =@ !A?@ @5A G7AGB7 !7=#? q = 1 A2 2

7!
0(0) = ∗ (0.83)F (0.17)I = 0.0000
7!
7!
0(1) = ∗ (0.83)! ∗ (0.17)IE! = 0.00014
(7 − 1)! 1!
I!
0(2) = (IE")!"! ∗ (0.83)" (0.17)IE" =0.002054
0(0) + 0(1) + 0(2) = 0.0000 + 0.0001 + 002054 = 0.00215

c. At least five people will agree with that statement

I!
0(5) = (IE@)!@! ∗ (0.83)@ (0.17)IE@ =0.2391

I!
0(6) = (IES)!S! ∗ (0.83)S ∗ (0.17)IES =0.3891
I!
0(7) = (IEI)!I! ∗ (0.83)I (0.17)IEI =0.2713
0(=@ B7=?@ 5) = 0(5) + 0(6) + 0(7) = 0.8993

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POISSON PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION:

A discrete probability distribution that is useful when n is large and p is small and when the independent
variables occur over a period of time is called the Poisson distribution. The poison distribution can be used when
a density of items is distributed over a given area or volume, such as the number of plants growing per acre of
the number of defects in a given length of videotape.

Formula for the Poisson distribution

The probability of X occurrences in an interval of time, volume area, etc. for a variable, where ~
Is the mean number of occurrences per unit (time, volume, area, etc.) is

7 EU ~R
0(q: ~) = 5ℎ727 q = 0, 1, 2 …
q!
The letter e is a constant approximately equal to 2.7183

Example: If there are 200 typographical errors randomly distributed in 500-page manuscript, find the probability
that a given page contains exactly 3 errors.

Calculate the mean:

200 2
~= = = 0.4
500 5

0.4 error per page, since X=3

7 EU ~R 7 EF.A (0.4)#
0(q: ~) = = = .00715
q! 3!
There is less than 1% chance than any given page will contain exactly 3 errors.

Example: A vintage car breaks down an average of four times per month. Using the Poisson probability
distribution formula, find the probability that during the next month this vintage car will have

a. exactly three breakdowns

~=4

7 EU ~R 7 EA 4#
0(q: ~) = = = 0.1954
q! 3!

b. At most two break downs P (0,1,2)

7 EU ~R 7 EA 4F 7 EA 4! 7 EA 4"
0(q: ~) = = + + = 0.2381
q! 0! 1! 2!

MODULE 2 ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

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