PROBABILITY ANALYSIS

Session 09

Dr. Aditya Kumar Sahu

n Quick Recap!

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Learning Outcome

1. Continuous Probability Distributions:

¨ Uniform Distribution
¨ Exponential Distribution
¨ Normal Distribution

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Continuous Random Variables

n Continuous random variable: A variable which can take on any value

over a given interval.
¨ Continuous variables are measured, not counted.
¨ Examples:
n thickness of an item
n time required to complete a task
n temperature of a solution
n height, in inches
n Weight of ice-cream
Probability Density Function

n The probabilities associated with a continuous random variable X are

determined by the probability density function (i.e., p.d.f) of the random
variable.

n The function, denoted f(x), has the following properties:

1. f(x) ≥ 0 for all x.
2. The probability that X will be between two numbers a and b is equal to the
area under f(x) between a and b.
3. The total area under the entire curve of f(x) is equal to 1.0.
 Continuous Probability Distributions

• A continuous random variable can assume any value in an interval on the

real line or in a collection of intervals.

• It is not possible to talk about the probability of the random variable

assuming a particular value.

• Instead, we talk about the probability of the random variable assuming a

value within a given interval.

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Cumulative Probability Distribution

n The cumulative distribution function of a continuous random

variable :
F(x) = P(X ≤ x)
= area under f(x) between the smallest possible
value of X and point x.
Therefore,
P(a ≤ X ≤ b) = F(b) – F(a)
Note that, putting b = a
P(a ≤ X ≤ a) = F(a) – F(a) = 0 i.e., P(X = a) = 0
Also note
P(a ≤ X ≤ b) = P(a < X ≤ b) = P(a ≤ X < b) = P(a < X < b)
Continuous Probability Distribution

f(x)

Area = F(a)

x
a
f(x) P(a ≤ X ≤b) = Area under f(x)
Between a and b = F(b) – F(a)

x
a b
Continuous Probability Distributions

n Uniform distribution
n Normal distribution
n The t distribution
n The chi-square distribution
n Exponential distribution
n F distribution
n ...
 f (x) Exponential

• Uniform Probability Distribution

• Normal Probability Distribution
• Exponential Probability Distribution
x
Uniform
f (x)
Normal
f (x)

x
x

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 Continuous Probability Distributions

• The probability of the random variable assuming a value within some given
interval from x1 to x2 is defined to be the area under the graph of the
probability density function between x1 and x2.

Uniform Normal f (x) Exponential

f (x) f (x)

x x x
x1 x2 x1 x2 x1 x2

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 1. Uniform Probability Distribution

• A random variable is uniformly distributed whenever the probability is

proportional to the interval’s length.

• The uniform probability density function is:

f (x) = 1/(b – a) for a < x < b

=0 elsewhere

where: a = smallest value the variable can assume

b = largest value the variable can assume

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 Uniform Probability Distribution
• Expected Value of x
E(x) = (a + b)/2

• Variance of x
Var(x) = (b - a)2/12

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 Uniform Probability Distribution

• Example: Slater's Buffet

Slater customers are charged for the amount of salad they take.
Sampling suggests that the amount of salad taken is uniformly distributed
between 5 ounces and 15 ounces. What is the mean and variance of salad
plate filling weight.

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 Uniform Probability Distribution
n Salad Plate Filling Weight
f(x)

1/10

x
0 5 10 15
Salad Weight (oz.)

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 • Uniform Probability Density Function

f(x) = 1/10 for 5 < x < 15

=0 elsewhere
where:
x = salad plate filling weight

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 Uniform Probability Distribution

• Expected Value of x
E(x) = (a + b)/2
= (5 + 15)/2
= 10

• Variance of x

Var(x) = (b - a)2/12
= (15 – 5)2/12
= 8.33

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 Area as a Measure of Probability

• The area under the graph of f(x) and probability are identical.

• This is valid for all continuous random variables.

• The probability that x takes on a value between some lower value x1 and
some higher value x2 can be found by computing the area under the graph
of f(x) over the interval from x1 to x2.

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Uniform Probability Distribution

What is the probability that a customer

will take between 12 and 15 ounces of
salad?

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 Uniform Probability Distribution

Ans: The area

f(x)

P(12 < x < 15) = 1/10(3) = .3

1/10

x
0 5 10 12 15
Salad Weight (oz.)

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 2. Exponential Probability Distribution

n The exponential distribution is a useful nonsymmetric continuous probability

distribution.

n The exponential probability distribution is useful in describing the time it takes to

complete a task.

n The exponential random variable is nonnegative.

n Example:
q Time required to complete a questionnaire

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n Is also useful when we are interested in the time/space between the occurrences
or arrivals.

n A new failure (time) is independent of the previous failures (times)

n Example:
q Time between vehicle arrivals at a toll booth

q Distance between major defects in a highway

q In waiting line applications, the exponential distribution is often used for service
times.

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 Exponential Probability Distribution

n Related to Poisson: number of occurrences over a given interval of time or space.

!
n 𝑃. 𝐷. 𝐹. = 𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑒 #$/" for x > 0
"

where: µ = expected or mean

e = 2.71828

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 Exponential Probability Distribution

n Cumulative Probabilities

𝑃(x < 𝑥0 )= 1 − 𝑒 !" /$ !

where:
x0 = some specific value of x

n Mean and standard deviation are equal.

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Relationship between the Poisson and Exponential Distributions

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Caselet 9.1

n The time between e-mail messages during work hours is

exponentially distributed with a mean of 25 minutes.
a. Calculate the rate.
b. What is the probability that you get an e-mail within 10 minutes?
c. What is the probability that you get an e-mail for more than one
hour?

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 % %
n (a). E-mail rate = = = 0.04 emails per minute
&(() *+

n (b). 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 10 = 1 − 𝑒 ! %,/*+
= 1 − 0.6703 = 0.3297

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n c . 𝑃 𝑋 > 60 = 𝑒 !(-,/*+) = 0.0907

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 3. Normal Probability Distribution a.k.a Gaussian distribution

n Normal Probability Density Function

1 #($#")! /()!
𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑒
𝜎 2𝜋

where: µ = mean
s = standard deviation
p = 3.14159
e = 2.71828
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Properties

n Bell Shaped
n Symmetrical f(x)
n Mean, Median and Mode are
Equal
n Location is determined by the σ
mean, μ x
μ
n Spread is determined by the
standard deviation, σ
n The random variable has an Mean = Median = Mode
infinite theoretical range:
+ ¥ to - ¥
Shape

f(x) Changing μ shifts the

distribution left or right.

Changing σ increases or
decreases the spread.
σ

x
μ
 Normal Probability Distribution

The mean can be any numerical value: negative, zero, or positive.

x
-10 0 25

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Probability as Area Under the Curve

n The total area under the curve is 1.0, and the curve
is symmetric, so half is above the mean, half is
below.
f(X)
P( - ¥ < X < μ) = 0.5 P(μ < X < ¥) = 0.5

0.5 0.5

X
μ
P( -¥ < X < ¥ ) = 1.0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iA0xRUNvLV8&t=369s&ab_ch
annel=Stat_v1

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Standardization

n By the use of the transformation formula any normal random

variable X distribution (with any mean and standard deviation
combination) can be transformed into the standardized normal
variable (Z).

x-µ
z=
s
Standardized Normal Distribution

n The standardized normal distribution (or Z

distribution) always has mean = 0 and standard
deviation = 1.
Z ~ N(0,1)

n The p.d.f of a standardized normal variable Z is

1 - 12 z 2
f ( z) = e
2p
Standardized Normal Distribution

f(z)

z
0

– Values above the mean have positive Z-values,

– values below the mean have negative Z-values
General Procedure for Finding Probabilities

n To find P(a < X < b) when X is distributed normally:

¨ Step 1: Draw the normal curve for the problem in terms of X

¨ Step 2: Translate X-values to Z-values
¨ Step 3: Use the Standardized Normal Table
Finding Normal Probabilities

n Suppose X is normal with mean 8.0 and standard deviation 5.0.

Find P(X < 8.6).
P(X < 8.6) = P(X < 8.0) + P(8.0 < X < 8.6)

8.0 8.6
Finding Normal Probabilities

n P(X < 8.6)

= P( Z < )

= P( Z < 0.12)

= 0.5478

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Finding the x value for a Known Probability

n Steps to find the x value for a known

probability:
1. Find the z value for the known probability
2. Convert to x units using the formula:
x = μ + σz
 Caselet 9.2: Pep Zone

Pep Zone sells auto parts and supplies including a popular multi-
grade motor oil. When the stock of this oil drops to 20 gallons, a
replenishment order is placed.
The store manager is concerned that sales are being lost due to
stockouts while waiting for a replenishment order. It has been
determined that demand during replenishment lead-time is normally
distributed with a mean of 15 gallons and a standard deviation of 6
gallons.
The manager would like to know the probability of a stockout during
replenishment lead-time. In other words, what is the probability that
demand during lead-time will exceed 20 gallons?
 P(x > 20) = ?

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 Standard Normal Probability Distribution
• Solving for the Stockout Probability
Step 1: Convert x to the standard normal distribution.

z = (x - µ)/s
= (20 - 15)/6
= .83
Step 2: Find the area under the standard normal curve to the left of z = .83.

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 Standard Normal Probability Distribution
• Cumulative Probability Table for the Standard Normal Distribution

z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
. . . . . . . . . . .
.5 .6915 .6950 .6985 .7019 .7054 .7088 .7123 .7157 .7190 .7224
.6 .7257 .7291 .7324 .7357 .7389 .7422 .7454 .7486 .7517 .7549
.7 .7580 .7611 .7642 .7673 .7704 .7734 .7764 .7794 .7823 .7852
.8 .7881 .7910 .7939 .7967 .7995 .8023 .8051 .8078 .8106 .8133
.9 .8159 .8186 .8212 .8238 .8264 .8289 .8315 .8340 .8365 .8389
. . . . . . . . . . .

P(z < .83) = .7967

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 Standard Normal Probability Distribution
• Solving for the Stockout Probability
Step 3: Compute the area under the standard normal
curve to the right of z = .83.

P(z > .83) = 1 – P(z < .83)

= 1- .7967
= .2033

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 Standard Normal Probability Distribution

• Solving for the Stockout Probability

Area = .7967 Area = 1 - .7967

= .2033

z
0 .83

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 Caselet 9.3

n A machine Produces bolts which are N(4,0.09) where the diameter

are measured in millimeters(mm). Bolts smaller than 3.5 mm and
bigger than 4.4 mm are rejected. Out of the batch of 500 bolts, how
many would be acceptable?

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n P(3.5<X<4.4) = ?
= P(3.5≤X ≤ 4.4) (in case of continuous random variable)
(!$
Using the Z transformation Z = .
/.+!1 1.1!1
P( ≤Z≤ )
,./ ,./

P(-0.5/.3 ≤ Z ≤ 0.4/.3)
P(-1.67 ≤ Z ≤ 1.33 )
= P(Z ≤ 1.33) – P(Z ≤ -1.67) (in case of continuous random variable)
= 0.9082 - 0.0475 = 0.8607
Total acceptable bolts = 0.8607*500 = 430.35 bolts
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 Caselet 9.4

n Suppose X is normally distributed with mean 8.0 and standard

deviation 5.0. Now find the x value so that only 20% of all values are
below this x?

(Hint: Given a probability, we can use the standard normal table in an

inverse fashion to find the corresponding z value.)

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Finding the x value for a Known Probability

0.2000 P(X < ?) = 0.2

? 8.0 X
-0.84 0 Z
Finding the x value for a Known Probability

x-µ
z=
s
n Given P = 20 % or P = 0.2, From table value of z corresponding to
probability 0.2 (take nearest) = - 0.84
Therefore z = - 0.84
x = 8.0 + (5.0) * (-0.84) = 3.8
Caselet 9.5

n A company requires a new typist for their organisation. Typing speed on

a new kind of keyboard for people at a certain stage in their training
program is approximately normally distributed. The probability that the
speed of a new trainee will be greater than 65 words per minute is 0.45.
The probability that the speed will be more than 70 words per minute is
0.15. Find the mean and the standard deviation of typing speed?

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n P(X > 65) = 0.45 P(X > 70) = 0.15

Therefore, P(X < 65) = 0.55 P(X < 70) = 0.85

Z1 = 0.13 , Z2= 1.04

-+! $ 3,! $
= 0.13 = 1.04
. .

𝜇 = 64.28 𝜎 = 5.49

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 Caselet 9.6

n Top 5% of students in the first term will get scholarship at IIM

Rohtak. How high your score should be to qualify for the
scholarship? Consider the scores are normally distributed with
N(60,152).

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Finding the x value for a Known Probability

P(X > ?) = 0.05

0.05

60 X
n Since the left side value is given on the table hence we need to find
out value for 1-.05 = 0.95

n From table value of z corresponding to probability 0.95 (take nearest)

= 1.65
Therefore z = 1.65

x = 60 + (15)x(1.65) = 84.75

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Properties of the Normal Distribution

§ If X1 , X2 , …, Xn are independent normal random variable, then their

sum S will also be normally distributed with

§ E(S) = E(X1) + E(X2) + … + E(Xn)

§ V(S) = V(X1) + V(X2) + … + V(Xn)
§ Note: It is the variances that can be added above and not the
standard deviations.

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 Case

Specialty Toys!

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