MMSS-04 Rev.

1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 2

Tropical Storm OFEL (USAGI)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 12 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today.

“OFEL” SLIGHTLY INTENFIES AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

Location of Center (10:00 AM)

The center of Tropical Storm OFEL was estimated based on

all available data at 950 km East of Southeastern Luzon
(13.8°N, 133.0°E).

Intensity

Maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center,

gustiness of up to 105 km/h, and central pressure of 996 hPa

Present Movement

Northwestward at 35 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 230 km
from the center

TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST

Center Position Intensity Movement
Date and Time Lat. Lon. MSW dir. and
Location Cat. speed (km/h)
(°N) (°E) (km/h)
12-Hour Forecast
8:00 PM 14.1 131.0 735 km East of Virac, Catanduanes 95 STS WNW 25
12 November 2024
24-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 14.9 128.4 590 km East of Daet, Camarines Norte 100 STS WNW 25
13 November 2024
36-Hour Forecast
8:00 PM 15.8 125.8 395 km East of Casiguran, Aurora 110 STS WNW 25
13 November 2024
48-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 16.9 123.6 205 km East of Echague, Isabela 120 TY WNW 20
14 November 2024
60-Hour Forecast
8:00 PM 18.5 121.7 Over the coastal waters of Aparri, Cagayan 120 TY NW 20
14 November 2024
72-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 19.6 120.6 100 km West Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan 110 STS NW 15
15 November 2024
96-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 21.5 120.7 140 km Northwest of Itbayat, Batanes 100 STS N 10
16 November 2024
120-Hour Forecast
8:00 AM 22.8 121.5 225 km North of Itbayat, Batanes 95 STS NNE Slowly
17 November 2024

Page 1 of 3

Prepared by: ACJ Checked by: MAGGE

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
 MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 2

Tropical Storm OFEL (USAGI)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 12 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

No Wind Signal currently hoisted.

OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

Currently, Tropical Storm OFEL is not directly affecting any part of the country. However, a Weather Advisory No. 19 has been
issued in anticipation of the heavy rainfall caused by OFEL.

Severe Winds

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 may be raised over portions of Cagayan Valley this late evening or tomorrow early morning.
The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of OFEL is Wind Signal No. 4.

Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of Tropical Storm OFEL will also bring strong to gale-force gusts
over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):

 Tomorrow (13 November): Catanduanes

 Thursday (14 November): Batanes, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, and the northern portions of
Camarines Sur and Catanduanes
 Friday (15 November): Isabela and the northern portion of Aurora

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook

Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:

 Up to 4.0 m: The seaboards of Ilocos Norte and northern Ilocos Sur
 Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek
shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.

Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:

 Up to 3.5 m: The seaboards of Batanes and Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
 Up to 3.0 m: The remaining seaboard of Ilocos Region, and the seaboard of northern Isabela
 Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under
these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.

Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:

 Up to 2.0 m: The remaining western and eastern seaboards of Luzon; the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao
 Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing
out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.

Page 2 of 3

Prepared by: ACJ Checked by: MAGGE

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines
 MMSS-04 Rev.1 / 24-06-2024
Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 2

Tropical Storm OFEL (USAGI)
Issued at 11:00 AM, 12 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

 OFEL is forecast to move west northwestward until Thursday (November 14) evening before turning northwestward to
northward for the rest of the forecast period. On the forecast track, OFEL may make landfall over Northern or Central Luzon
on Thursday afternoon or evening.
 This tropical cyclone is forecast to steadily intensify in the next three days and reach typhoon category tomorrow (November
13) evening or Thursday early morning. OFEL may reach its peak intensity prior to landfall.
 Regardless of the position of the landfall point, it must be emphasized that hazards on land and coastal waters may
still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point or forecast confidence cone. It must also be emphasized that the
track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone, especially on the 4th and 5th day of the forecast track.
 Although it is too early to exactly determine the specific areas to be affected by certain hazards, areas in Northern Luzon are
at risk of heavy rainfall, severe wind, and, possibly, storm surge inundation from OFEL which may cause considerable
impacts. Moreover, the eastern portions of Central and Southern Luzon may also be affected, especially if the tropical cyclone
further expands in size or follows a more southerly path (but within the forecast confidence cone).

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all
necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these
hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings,
thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 5:00 PM today.

DOST-PAGASA

Page 3 of 3

Prepared by: ACJ Checked by: MAGGE

“tracking the sky…helping the country.”

Weather and Flood Forecasting Center Tel. No.: (+632) 8284-0800 ext. 4800
Senator Miriam P. Defensor-Santiago Avenue Website: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Brgy. Central, Quezon City 1100, Philippines