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THE BUSINESS Applied Regression and Modeling Quantitative Approaches

SAHAY
EXPERT PRESS to Decision Making Collection
A Computer Integrated Approach
DIGITAL LIBRARIES
Amar Sahay Donald N. Stengel, Editor
EBOOKS FOR
BUSINESS STUDENTS Applied Regression and Modelling: A Computer Integrated Approach
creates a balance between the theory, practical applications,
­
Curriculum-oriented, born-
and computer implementation behind Regression—one of the
digital books for advanced
most widely used techniques in analyzing and solving real world
business students, written
problems. The book begins with a ­
­ thorough explanation and
by academic thought discussion of Regression Analysis with c
­omputer a
­pplications.
leaders who translate real- This is followed by Multiple Regression—a widely used tool to
world business experience predict a r­esponse variable using two or more predictors. The
­
into course readings and book ­emphasizes the use of computers to relieve the analyst of

Applied Regression
reference materials for tedious, repetitive c
­ alculations and allow the analyst to focus on
students expecting to tackle creating and i­nterpreting successful models. In addition, the book
management and leadership ­presents ­complete c
­ omputer analysis including the interpretation

and Modeling
challenges during their of ­multiple regression models along with the model adequacy tests
professional careers. and residual analysis using widely used computer software.
Finally, the book extends the concepts to Modeling. Among
POLICIES BUILT

APPLIED REGRESSION AND MODELING

A Computer Integrated
the ­
models discussed are non-linear, higher order, interaction,
BY LIBRARIANS and m
­ odels with qualitative variables, all subset regression, and
• Unlimited simultaneous step-wise ­
­ regression with real world applications. Analysis and
usage
• Unrestricted downloading
­interpretation of computer results are also presented.
A website link is provided for the readers to download the
Approach
and printing additional material including statistical concepts for regression,
­
• Perpetual access for a computer instructions to run the models using Excel and MINITAB
one-time fee software, and all of the data files.
• No platform or
Dr. Amar Sahay is engaged in teaching, research, consulting, and
maintenance fees
training. He has a BS in production engineering from Birla ­Institute
• Free MARC records
of Technology, India, MS in industrial engineering and a PhD in
• No license to execute
­mechanical engineering—both from the University of Utah, USA. He
The Digital Libraries are a is a professor and has taught/teaching at several Utah ­institutions
comprehensive, cost-effective including the University of Utah, SLCC, and o
­ thers. Dr. Sahay is a
way to deliver practical certified Six Sigma Master Black Belt and holds ­expert level certifica-
treatments of important tion in lean manufacturing/lean management. He has ­contributed Amar Sahay
business issues to every a number of research papers in the field of engineering and quality.
student and faculty member. He is the author of Six Sigma Quality: Concepts and Cases, Statistics &
Data Analysis Concepts, and Managing and Improving Q
­ uality. Dr. Sahay
is the founder of QMS Global LLC; a company engaged in the ­areas
of lean six sigma, data visualization, ­
analytics, manufacturing,

For further information, a and services. He is a senior member of the ­Institute of Industrial &
­Systems Engineers, and a senior member of ­American Society for
free trial, or to order, contact:
Quality (ASQ).
[email protected]
Quantitative Approaches
www.businessexpertpress.com/librarians
to Decision Making Collection
Donald N. Stengel, Editor
ISBN: 978-1-63157-329-3
Applied Regression and
Modeling
Applied Regression and
Modeling
A Computer Integrated Approach

Amar Sahay
Applied Regression and Modeling: A Computer Integrated Approach

Copyright © Business Expert Press, LLC, 2016.

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,

stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any
means—electronic, mechanical, photocopy, recording, or any other
except for brief quotations, not to exceed 400 words, without the prior
permission of the publisher.

First published in 2016 by

Business Expert Press, LLC
222 East 46th Street, New York, NY 10017
www.businessexpertpress.com

ISBN-13: 978-1-63157-329-3 (paperback)

ISBN-13: 978-1-63157-330-9 (e-book)

Business Expert Press Quantitative Approaches to Decision Making

Collection

Collection ISSN: 2163-9515 (print)

Collection ISSN: 2163-9582 (electronic)

Cover and interior design by Exeter Premedia Services Private Ltd.,

Chennai, India

First edition: 2016

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

Printed in the United States of America.

 Abstract
Applied Regression and Modeling: A Computer Integrated Approach ­creates a
balance between the theory, practical applications, and computer imple-
mentation behind Regression—one of the most widely used techniques
in analyzing and solving real world problems. The book begins with a
­thorough explanation of prerequisite knowledge with a discussion of
­Simple Regression Analysis including the computer applications. This is
followed by Multiple Regression—a widely used tool to predict a response
variable using two or more predictors. Since the analyses of regression
models involve tedious and complex computations, c­ omplete computer
analysis including the interpretation of multiple regression problems
along with the model adequacy tests and residual analysis using widely
used computer software are presented. The use of computers relieves the
analyst of tedious, repetitive calculations, and allows one to focus on
­creating and interpreting successful models.
Finally, the book extends the concepts to Regression and ­Modeling.
Different models that provide a good fit to a set of data and provide a
good prediction of the response variable are discussed. Among ­models
discussed are the nonlinear, higher order, and interaction models,
­
including models with qualitative variables. Computer analysis and
interpretation of computer results are presented with real world applica-
tions. We also discuss all subset regression and stepwise regression with
­applications. Several flow charts are presented to illustrate the concepts.
The statistical ­concepts for regression, computer instructions for the soft-
ware—Excel and MINITAB—used in the book and all of the data files
used can be downloaded from the website link provided.

Keywords
coefficient of correlation, correlation, dependent variable, dummy vari-
able, independent variable, interaction model, least squares estimates,
least squares prediction equation, linear regression, multiple coefficient
of determination, multiple regression and modeling, nonlinear models,
regression line, residual analysis, scatterplot, second-order model, step-
wise regression
 Contents
Preface��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ix
Acknowledgments���������������������������������������������������������������������������������xiii
Computer Software Integration, Computer Instructions, and Data Files��� xv

Chapter 1 Introduction to Regression and Correlation Analysis��������1

Chapter 2 Regression, Covariance, and Coefficient of Correlation���13
Chapter 3 Illustration of Least Squares Regression Method�������������29
Chapter 4 Regression Analysis Using a Computer���������������������������51
Chapter 5 Multiple Regression: Computer Analysis������������������������81
Chapter 6 Model Building and Computer Analysis�����������������������133
Chapter 7 Models with Qualitative Independent (Dummy)
Variables, Interaction Models, All Subset and
Stepwise Regression Models with Computer Analysis���149
Chapter 8 Notes on Implementation of Regression Models�����������185

Bibliography���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������191
Index�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������193
 Preface
This book is about regression and modeling—one of the most widely
used techniques in analyzing and solving real-world problems. Regres-
sion analysis is used to investigate the relationship between two or more
variables. Often we are interested in predicting one variable using one
or more variables. For example, we might be interested in the relation-
ship between two variables: sales and profit for a chain of stores, n
­ umber
of hours required to produce certain number of products, number of
accidents versus blood alcohol level, advertising expenditures and sales,
or the height of parents compared to their children. In all these cases,
­regression analysis can be applied to investigate the relationship between
the ­variables.
The book is divided into three parts—(1) prerequisite to regression
analysis followed by a discussion on simple regression, (2) multiple regres-
sion analysis with applications, and (3) regression and modeling including
second-order models, nonlinear regression, regression using qualitative or
dummy variables, and interaction models in regressions. All these sections
provide examples with complete computer analysis and instructions com-
monly used in modeling and analyzing these problems. The book deals
with detailed analysis and interpretation of computer results. This will
help readers to appreciate the power of computer in applying r­egression
models. The readers will find that the understanding of computer results is
critical to implementing regression and modeling in real-world ­situation.
The purpose of simple regression analysis is to develop a statistical
model that can be used to predict the value of a response or dependent
variable using an independent variable. In a simple linear regression
method, we study the linear relationship between two variables. For
example, suppose that a Power Utility company is interested in develop-
ing a model that will enable them to predict the home heating cost based
on the size of homes in two of the Western states that they serve. This
model involves two variables: the heating cost and the size of the homes.
x PREFACE

The first part of the book shows how to model and analyze this type of
problem.
In the second part of the book, we expand the concept of simple regres-
sion to include multiple regression analysis. A multiple linear regression
involves one dependent or response variable, and two or more independent
variables or predictors. The concepts of simple regression discussed in the
previous chapter are also applicable to the multiple regression. We provide
graphical analysis known as matrix plots that are very useful in analyzing
multiple regression problems. A complete computer analysis including
the interpretation of multiple regression problems along with the model
adequacy tests and residual analysis using a computer are ­presented.
In the third part of the book, we discuss different types of models
using regression analysis. By model building, we mean selecting the model
that will provide a good fit to a set of data, and the one that will provide a
good prediction of the response or the dependent variable. In experimen-
tal situations, we often encounter both the quantitative and qualitative
variables. In the model building examples, we will show how to deal with
qualitative independent variables. The model building part also discusses
the nonlinear models including second-order, higher order, and interac-
tion models. Complete computer analysis and interpretation of computer
results are presented with real-world applications. We also explain how to
model a regression problem using dummy variables. Finally, we discuss all
subset regression and stepwise regression and their applications.
The book is written for juniors, seniors, and graduate students in
business, MBAs, professional MBAs, and working people in business and
industry. Managers, practitioners, professionals, quality professionals,
quality engineers, and anyone involved in data analysis, business analyt-
ics, and quality and six sigma will find the book to be a valuable resource.
The book presents an in-depth treatment of regression and model-
ing in a concise form. The readers will find the book easy-to-read and
comprehend. The book takes the approach of organizing and presenting
the material in a way that allows the reader to understand the concepts
easily. The use of computers in modeling and analyzing simple, multi-
ple, and higher order regression problems is emphasized throughout the
book. The book uses the most widely used computer software in data
analysis and quality used in industry and academia. Readers interested in
 Preface xi

more complex and in-depth analysis of regression models are referred to

additional resources that provides further details of the subject matter. In
this book, we have provided numerous examples with data files, stepwise
computer instructions, and case problems.
 Acknowledgments
I would like to thank the reviewers who took the time to provide excellent
insights which helped shape this book.
I would especially like to thank Mr. Karun Mehta, a friend and
­engineer. His expertise and tireless efforts in helping to prepare this text
is greatly appreciated.
I am very thankful to Prof. Edward Engh for reviewing the book
and providing thoughtful advice. Ed has been a wonderful friend and
­colleague. I have learned a great deal from him.
I would like to thank Dr. Roger Lee, a senior professor and colleague
for reading the initial draft and administering invaluable advice and
­suggestions.
Thanks to all of my students for their input in making this book
­possible. They have helped me pursue a dream filled with lifelong l­ earning.
This book won’t be a reality without them.
I am indebted to senior acquisitions editor, Scott Isenberg; director
of production, Charlene Kronstedt; marketing manager; all the review-
ers and collection editors, and the publishing team at Business Expert
Press for their counsel and support during the preparation of this book.
I acknowledge the help and support of Exeter Premedia Services—­
Chennai, India—Team for reviewing and editing the manuscript.
I would like to thank my parents who always emphasized the impor-
tance of what education brings to the world. Lastly, I would like to express
a special appreciation to my wife Nilima, to my daughter Neha and her
husband David, my daughter Smita, and my son Rajeev for their love,
support and encouragement.
 Another Random Document on
Scribd Without Any Related Topics
 Suddenly Barney dropped his fiddle and sprung up.
“Be me sowl, the divils are all about us!” he roared. “Shure, ye kin
see their forms iverywhere!”
At the same moment a flight of arrows came rattling against the
metal body of the wagon.
In an instant Frank was upon his feet. The gloom was broken with
the headlight of the Steam Horse now, and the foe could be plainly
seen.
It was a critical moment.
 CHAPTER III.
CORRALLED.

Frank knew at once that they had been discovered by a band of

Comanches.
The savages had crept up in the darkness and had for a time been
puzzled at the make-up of the Steam Horse.
This had delayed their attack.
But it came, nevertheless, and in a furious manner.
The arrows began to fly in literal clouds. There was great danger
of getting struck, as Frank well knew.
The young inventor quickly pressed the spring which shut the
metal sides of the wagon.
They were now perfectly secure from the arrows.
But there was an amount of danger in a close combat which Frank
did not relish.
Accordingly he decided to make a move from the spot.
There was sufficient steam up to give the Horse fair speed.
Frank pulled on the reins and sent the Steam Horse forward.
Barney and Pomp went to the loopholes and opened fire upon the
red foe.
Of course it was firing at random in the intense darkness.
The headlight of the Horse lit up for a ways in advance. But the
red foe were swarming all about.
 The din was something terrific as the red foe kept up a perpetual
yelling and howling.
“Bejabers, I niver kin git a fair shot at the omadhauns,” cried
Barney, “they do be dodging about so much like the devil, shure one
kin niver tell which way to fire.”
“Jes’ yo’ fire anywheres—jes’ de same as I does!” cried Pomp.
“Yo’s dead suah for to hit some on ’em.”
“Begorra, that’s phwat I’m after doing,” cried the Celt.
But Frank was anxious to get away from the foe.
Of course they had the best of the running fight, but it was
impossible to tell just where the course they were pursuing would
take them to.
In the intense darkness they might at any moment run into some
quicksand or saline lake.
Frank endeavored to keep the Steam Horse up to a good rate of
speed.
He hung to the brake handle and kept a keen watch ahead, as far
as he could see in the radius of light from the headlight of the Steam
Horse.
For what seemed an interminable length of time this sort of thing
went on.
Then it came to a sudden termination.
Of a sudden the whooping and yelling ceased, and the savages
disappeared.
Nothing more was seen or heard of them for a time.
Frank was not a little surprised and puzzled.
“I wonder what game they are up to now?” he muttered. “I think we
will keep a sharp look out.”
 He was not deceived.
He did not by any means credit the assumption that the savages
had given up the contest.
This was not a reasonable hypothesis.
“Begorra, mebbe we’re comin’ to some hole in the ground, or
something av the sort!” cried Barney, suspiciously.
“It will do no harm to keep a good watch anyway,” rejoined Frank.
And this was done.
The Steam Horse now went on at a moderate pace, and Frank
increased, if anything, his watchfulness.
The Comanches did not show up, and seemed to have wholly
abandoned the fight.
Time wore on, and it was near dawn when through the shadows
Barney saw a dark object which caused a sharp cry to escape his
lips.
“Luk out, Misther Frank!” he cried. “Shure wud yez see phwat is
ahead.”
Frank’s gaze was blinded by the headlight’s glare for a moment.
But he closed the throttle and brought the Horse to a stop.
He was not a moment too soon.
They were at the base of a high cliff of rock which towered above
fully a thousand feet.
If Barney had not seen the cliff just in time they would certainly
have dashed full into the cliff.
This no doubt would have damaged the Steam Horse greatly if not
destroyed it entirely.
 “A lucky escape!” cried Frank, “but where in the world are we,
Barney? I saw nothing of any elevation when we camped last night.”
“Shure, sor, we’ve cum a good ways,” declared Barney.
“We must have. Is this the base of some high hill, or——”
“Shure it’s in a canyon I think we are, sor!” cried Barney. “Don’t yez
see that there be walls all about av us?”
“You’re right!” cried Frank, as the rapidly growing dawn began to
make the vicinity clear.
Then the voyagers were treated to a genuine surprise party as the
vicinity became quite plain.
They were in what seemed like a mighty amphitheater fully two
miles in circumference, hemmed in with precipitous cliffs in almost a
complete circle.
Where the circle was broken was visible the entrance to this
peculiar amphitheater.
Through this, by a singular chance, the Steam Horse had entered.
Frank understood the situation at a glance.
“Upon my word!” exclaimed the young inventor in amazement and
trepidation, “we’ve stumbled into a nice trap now, haven’t we?”
“Begorra, I should say so!” ejaculated Barney, with a grimace of
comical sort.
“I done fink dat am a fac’,” assented Pomp, seriously.
“I wonder if those savages did not know it and hung back on
purpose?”
A chilling thought struck Frank.
Indeed it was not impossible but that they were even now in
waiting at the narrow entrance to the place.
 If so it would be a nice little ambush for the Steam Horse to fall
into.
One thing was sure.
The best thing to be done was to get out of that spot just as soon
as possible.
Accordingly Frank at once headed the Horse for the exit.
But as they drew near to the narrow passage, Frank found his
worst fears confirmed.
He stopped the Horse.
“It’s just as I thought,” he muttered. “We’re in a trap.”
Fully a hundred hostile Comanches were blocking the entrance to
the amphitheater, if such it could be called, with stones.
For the Steam Horse to pass over the barricade was utterly
impossible.
They were hemmed in—trapped!
It was a thrilling realization.
For a moment all three stood looking at each other in blank
amazement and indecision.
“Bejabers, it’s a foine thrick they have played on us this toime!”
cried Barney.
“Golly! I specs dem Injuns knowed all de time we’d be suah fo’ to
come in dis place,” exclaimed Pomp.
“Well, we will have to fight our way out,” said Frank, desperately.
Then a happy thought seemed to strike him.
“But first let us see if there is not some other method of leaving the
place,” he cried.
 “Bejabers, I don’t think that,” cried Barney, looking doubtfully at the
high surrounding cliffs.
“Perhaps not!”
However, Frank turned the Horse about and began to make a
circle of the enclosure.
But everywhere the cliffs seemed to present the same
impregnable face.
There did not seem a crevice anywhere by which one could have
hoped to crawl out of the place.
It was a hopeless outlook.
There seemed no other way but to fight a way out through the
pass.
This would not have looked so hopeless had it not been for the
obstructions in the shape of the heavy stones.
The Horse could not pass over these and to remove them the
voyagers would have had to alight from the wagon and thus expose
themselves.
But Frank started the Horse boldly for the pass.
The savages had intrenched themselves behind the barricade and
were ready to receive the attack.
A flight of arrows came hurtling through the air.
These did no harm falling lightly against the steel shutters.
But part of the Comanches had fire arms and these now began to
open fire upon the Steam Horse.
Frank sent the Horse up to within a safe distance of the barricade.
Then Barney and Pomp opened fire with their Winchesters.
 Whenever they were able to draw a bead upon any of the red foe
they could make their shots tell.
But this it was not so easy to do, for the Comanches kept well
under cover of the rocks.
Every subterfuge was made to draw them out into the open.
While the Comanches defended the pass they did not attempt to
make an attack upon the Steam Horse.
Their purpose seemed solely and simply to be to hold the pass
and prevent the escape of the captives.
“Their game evidently is that of a long siege!” declared Frank
positively. “It will be a hard outlook for us, for I see no other way to
get out of this place.”
Barney scratched his head vigorously and sat down to think a
moment.
“Bejabers, we can’t fly out,” he declared finally.
“No,” replied Frank.
“Shure it’s stuck we are.”
“To a certainty.”
“What the divil will we do?”
“That’s the question.”
Irish wit, however, was not to be long baffled. Barney suddenly
cried:
“Sure I have an ijee.”
“Indeed!” exclaimed Frank. “What is it?”
“Begorra, wud yez luk up yonder to the top av that cliff?”
Frank did look up.
 This was to the top of the high walls of the pass.
“Well,” he said curtly, “what are you driving at, Barney?”
“Shure, sor, if yez will give me the lave, I’ll climb up there an’ roll
down big stones on the head av the rascals an’ fire many a good
shot at thim, too. Av I don’t make it too hot for thim to sthay in the
pass then me name ain’ O’Shea.”
A glad cry burst from Frank’s lips.
He saw the feasibility of the plan at once.
“Good for you, Barney!” he cried. “It takes an Irishman to solve a
riddle after all. You are a brick!”
“Shure I’m not a Mick, sor, savin’ yer presence!” protested Barney.
“I said a brick. Not a Mick!”
“Shure I beg yure pardon, Misther Frank. It’s a gintleman yez are,
an’ so was yer fayther afore ye.”
But Frank was now busy figuring the chances of success of the
new plan.
 CHAPTER IV.
DEFEATING THE COMANCHES.

It certainly was not a bad plan of Barney’s, and one easily worked.
It was a simple enough matter to climb to the top of the cliff.
Barney was all ready for the feat.
“Shure, I think yez had betther dhrop me over yinder in the edge
av the mountain side,” he said. “I don’t think the omadhouns can see
me there.”
“You are right, Barney,” agreed Frank; “that is a very good place.”
The Steam Horse was accordingly sent over quickly to the spot
named.
Here it was possible for Barney to leave the wagon without being
seen by the red foe.
He at once struck out up the mountain side.
He carried two repeating rifles and plenty of ammunition. It was
certain that a surprise party was in store for the Comanches.
Barney was quickly out of sight.
Frank muttered a fervent prayer for his success.
Then he turned the Horse back to the pass, and began firing again
upon the foe.
Frank pushed forward into the pass as far as he dared.
Time passed rapidly.
 An hour quickly fled by and the two men in the wagon were getting
impatient, when suddenly Pomp sprang up.
“Look up dar, Marse Frank!” he cried. “See dat?”
He pointed far up to the top of the cliff. A puff of smoke lingered in
the air, and the distant muffled report of a rifle was heard.
Barney had begun work.
The rifle shots became rapid and the effect upon the savages in
the pass was terrific.
Loud yells of discomfiture and rage filled the air.
Of course, Barney from his position could look right down upon
them and pick them off skillfully.
One by one he began to pick off the secreted redskins.
For a while they stood their ground.
It was useless to attempt to reply to the shots as Barney was
entirely out of range or sight.
But the deadly bullets came down in their midst, and every one
fired took a savage off the muster roll.
The Comanches hated to relinquish their position in the pass.
On the other hand, they could not afford to remain in their present
position and be exterminated one by one.
There was no other way but to beat a retreat.
There was no way to send a party up to disperse the foe at once.
It would require too much time.
So with baffled yells the Indians retreated from the pass.
It was now Frank and Pomp’s turn to act.
 Leaving the Steam Horse they began work immediately on the
barricade of stones.
Hastily they worked at the herculean task of moving them.
Gradually they made a passage through the obstruction for the
Steam Horse.
Soon Frank was enabled to get aboard and drive the Horse
through. Then a signal was given Barney.
The Celt ceased firing and came down with all haste from his
aerial perch.
He came down in half the time that he had occupied in going up,
and in the meanwhile Frank and Pomp held the Comanches at bay.
“Begorra, didn’t I give thim a foine taste av the law!” cried Barney,
as he came tumbling aboard the wagon. “Shure I think they’ll not thry
that thrick again roight away.”
“I am of the same opinion, Barney,” cried Frank, with a laugh. “It
was quite a surprise for them.”
“Bedad, an’ it was.”
“We’se jes’ pulled out ob dat trap in good shape!” cried Pomp. “Yo’
am got a big head, I’ish.”
“Shure ye’re roight, naygur, but it’s not so hard as yures.”
“If it ain’t it am jes’ as thick yo’ bet,” retorted Pomp.
“We’re out of the trap!” agreed Frank. “But not out of danger. We
will have some fun with the Comanches now.”
Frank sent the Steam Horse ahead at a full gallop.
The Comanches were smarting with defeat and desperate, and did
not hesitate to make an attack.
 Riding their ponies like fiends they charged upon the Steam
Horse.
Luckless barbarians! they little weighed the result or anticipated
the consequences.
Nothing could have pleased Frank Reade, Jr., more than this.
He did not attempt to stand his ground.
He adopted his old tactics of running away from the foe and
defeating them while in pursuit.
The Comanches came after the Steam Horse like a whirlwind.
Barney and Pomp, at the rear loopholes, worked the repeaters
and dropped the foe at every shot.
Frank kept the Steam Horse at an easy distance from the savages
and held them there.
It was folly for the savages to try to outfoot the Steam Horse, as
they speedily found out.
They were soon willing to abandon the pursuit and the battle, and
rode away to the southward much discomfited.
Now that the affray was over, our adventurers were given an
opportunity to look about and see where they were.
Looking to the westward, the mighty depression or sink, known as
the Great Basin, could be seen sloping downward.
To the southward was the range of hills which formed the curious
inclosed valley.
These hills were of fantastic shapes, and the vegetation was of a
stunted and unprolific kind.
It was easy to realize that they were really in the great American
desert. To the northward lay the mighty sandy waste which is fitly
called the American Sahara.
 Many a traveling party of explorers or prospectors had drifted out
upon that arid waste and succumbed.
Even as caravans had perished in the great Sahara so had the
American desert claimed its victims.
All gazed upon the scene spread before them with a profound
impression of the importance of this fact.
Frank Reade, Jr., did not fear the desert with the Steam Horse, for
he felt that at full speed he could quickly cross it.
Yet he gazed upon the sandy waste with deep interest.
The Comanches had gone from sight beyond the horizon long
since.
“Well,” said Frank, drawing a deep breath, “here we are in the
desert, and it is somewhere in this region that Bert Mason is located.
I would like to know just where.”
“Begorra, it can’t be out yonder in that pile av sand, Misther
Frank,” said Barney.
“No, Barney!” agreed Frank. “It probably is not there.”
“I jes’ tole yo’ dat if dar am any livin’ man in dis yer paht ob de
worl’ he am ober yonder ways,” declared Pomp.
The darky pointed to a distant range of hills, to the southward of
the depression of the Great Basin.
“I believe you’re right, Pomp,” agreed Frank. “We will go thither.”
Accordingly the Steam Horse was turned in that direction.
Across the plain they ran quickly.
As they drew nearer the hills, a long stretch of barren country was
seen reaching to the southwest.
The sun’s hot rays glinted across it with dazzling radiance.
 The earth seemed baked to the hardness of brick, and great
waves of heat could be seen with the naked eyes emanating from it.
Across this dreary sun-burned waste a horseman was making his
way at a slow canter.
At sight of him Frank closed the throttle and brought the Steam
Horse to a halt.
“Where is my long distance glass?” he asked Barney.
The Celt produced it quickly.
Frank brought it to bear upon the distant rider.
For a moment he scrutinized him closely. Barney and Pomp were
eagerly waiting the decision.
“Shure, an’ phwat do yez make av him, Misther Frank?” asked
Barney.
“Well, he is a strange-looking character,” replied Frank, “but he is
certainly a white man.”
“Golly! dat am joyful news!” cried Pomp. “It will seem jes’ glad fo’
to see a white man once moh.”
“Or a black man, either!” grinned Barney.
Pomp did not notice this insinuation but continued:
“P’raps it am dat bery chap youse lookin’ fo’, Marse Frank.”
“We’ll soon find out!” declared the young inventor, calmly.
Frank opened the throttle and started the Steam Horse ahead.
The distant rider evidently had not seen the Steam Horse, for he
had been riding with his head bowed down.
When he did lift his gaze and saw the strange invention coming
toward him, the effect was surprising.
 He pulled his pony up short and sat for a moment in the saddle
like a veritable statue.
Then he seemed imbued with an impulse to flee.
But Frank saw this in time and brought the Horse to a stop.
The young inventor alighted from the wagon and waved his arms
in a reassuring manner.
The traveler, who was a man of singular garb and appearance,
remained and answered the signal.
Frank boldly advanced on foot toward this singular nomad of the
plains, for such the rider appeared to be.
He was a tall, powerful-framed, coarse-featured man of forty-five
years of age.
His hair hung in long, matted folds down upon his back from
beneath a clumsy bearskin cap.
A tremendous patriarchal-like beard covered his chest; keen black
eyes looked out from shaggy brows. Such was his face and form.
His garb was of a nondescript kind, and wholly the product of
trapper life.
Greasy buckskin leggings and moccasins inclosed legs and feet, a
red shirt, dirty and patched, was worn beneath an outer jacket of
tanned deer hide, fringed with porcupine quills.
The unknown carried a rifle and revolvers and knife, and rode in
an Indian saddle, with a curious bridle of plaited rawhide to decorate
the pony with.
Such types were rarely met with in that part of the West, and
Frank knew it.
This man, he instantly reflected, was far from his usual haunts.
 He was a trapper from the wilds of Montana, and made his living in
dealing in traps and furs.
What he was doing in this part of the world was a problem.
However, Frank advanced boldly toward him.
When within safe speaking distance, the young inventor asked:
“Good-day to you, stranger. Where are you traveling?”
 CHAPTER V.
BEAVER BILL’S INFORMATION.

The trapper dismounted and advanced in his turn.

His broad face wore a genial expression, and there was a trusting
light in his fine blue eyes.
“Wall, straunger, since ye ask, I’ll make free to say thet I am goin’
back to ther old trappin’ grounds up north.”
“Ah!” exclaimed Frank, “then you are a trapper?”
“That’s the size of it.”
“I am glad to meet you!”
“Put it thar, pilgrim!”
“My name is Frank Reade, Jr. I am from the far East.”
“Wall, my name is Bill Swazey. Beaver Bill they call me up in ther
Powden river kentry an’ I’m a trapper.”
“If that is so, what are you doing away down here?” asked Frank,
in amazement.
“Eh?” exclaimed the trapper, with a start. “Ye don’t seem to
onderstand. This is the trapper’s highway along yer. Thar’s fully a
hundred of us goes up an’ down over this trail in the seasons. When
trapping season is ended we generally all pilgrimate to Arizony or
some warmer locality. Then we go back when fur is in season agin.
See?”
“I do,” replied Frank, with asperity. “You go to the miserable
settlements to spend the money you have earned so hard by
trapping.”
 “Wall,” rejoined the trapper, in a somewhat resentful tone, “it’s
honestly earned, and we kin do as we please.”
“Oh, of course,” said Frank, quickly. “Well, friend, I am glad to have
met you.”
“Ther same, pard. But what in tarnation do ye call that ’ere
thingem-a-jig out yender on ther perairy?”
“That is the Steam Horse,” replied Frank readily.
“A Steam Hoss!” gasped Old Bill. “Ye don’t mean to say that thing
is alive?”
“Oh, no! It goes by steam.”
“By steam?”
“Certainly.”
The trapper scratched his head and looked perplexed.
“Mebbe I’m a sucker an’ a greenhorn,” he said, “but I reckon that
runs jest ther way a puffin’ lokermotive does?”
“Exactly,” replied Frank.
“Umph!” grunted the trapper. “’Pears to me, I hev heerd of the iron
hoss. But I s’pose it had to go on rails.”
“By no means!” replied Frank, “the Steam Horse needs no rails to
travel on.”
“Do tell? Kin he go fast?”
“Almost a mile a minute!”
“Whew!”
The old trapper seemed overcome. He drew his handkerchief from
his pocket and wiped his steaming brow.
 “Wall, I never!” he muttered. “What will the world come to next I
wonder. I say, straunger, I’d like to take a peep at that masheen.”
“Certainly!” replied Frank. “Come along with me and I’ll make you
acquainted with my traveling companions.”
The trapper left his pony and shambled up to the Steam Horse.
He surveyed the invention and listened to Frank’s dissertation with
blank amazement.
“Wall, I swar!” he muttered, “I never heard tell of sich a thing. It’s a
wonderful masheen no doubt.”
Then he turned about and bent a keen penetrating gaze upon
Frank.
“Straunger, wud ye mind tellin’ me what ye’re in this part of the
kentry arter anyway?”
“Certainly!” replied Frank.
“What might it be?”
“We are looking for evidence to clear an innocent man now
languishing in prison of the charge of murder.”
Beaver Bill gave a violent start and drew a deep, long whistle.
“Ye don’t mean it, straunger?” he gasped.
“Yes I do!” replied Frank. “The real murderer is at large and I am
searching for him.”
“Sho! What war the murder?”
Frank explained matters.
When he told of the strange tragedy which had overtaken Clem
Johnson, the trapper gave a start.
“I heern tell of that!” he cried. “I onct knew Clem. So it’s Bert
Mason ye’re lookin’ fer, eh?”