"FOREX Transaction and FOREX Hedging": Ajinkya R. Chaobal ROLL NO. 011
"FOREX Transaction and FOREX Hedging": Ajinkya R. Chaobal ROLL NO. 011
"FOREX Transaction and FOREX Hedging": Ajinkya R. Chaobal ROLL NO. 011
SUBMITTED BY
AJINKYA R. CHAOBAL ROLL NO. 011 IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR MASTER IN MANAGEMENT STUDIES 2010-2012 UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF DR. A. K. PRADHAN
UNIVERSITY OF MUMBAI
K.J.SOMAIYA INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES & RESEARCH VIDYANAGAR, VIDYA VIHAR (E), MUMBAI-400 077
DECLARATION
I, AJINKYA R.CHAOBAL, a student of MMS-Finance, semester IV of University of Mumbai of 2010-2012 batch at SIMSR do hereby declare that this report entitled FOREX Transactions and FOREX Hedging has been carried out by me during this semester under the guidance of Dr. A.K.PRADHAN as per the norms prescribed by University of Mumbai, and the same work has not been copied from any source directly without acknowledging for the part / section that has been adopted from published / non-published works.
I further declare that the information presented in this project is true and original to the best of my knowledge.
AJINKYA R.CHAOBAL
CERTIFICATE
I, Dr. A.K. PRADHAN, hereby certify that AJINKYA R. CHAOBAL studying in the second year of the Master in Management Studies, batch 2010-2012 at the K.J. Somaiya Institute of Management Studies & Research (SIMSR) has completed the project on FOREX Transactions AND FOREX Hedging under my guidance, as per the norms prescribed by the University of Mumbai, in the academic year 2011-2012.
I further certify that the information presented in this project is true and original to the best of my knowledge and belief.
Dr. A.K.PRADHAN
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I wish to express my gratitude towards my guide Dr. A.K. PRADHAN. His able guidance, valuable inputs and attention throughout the project work has been of immense help to me. The knowledge gained through him helped me in completing the project successfully. The project has been an immense learning experience which would help me throughout my career. I also express my sincere thanks to all those who have helped me in this project directly or indirectly.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Forex was established in 1971 and grew steadily throughout the 1970s, but with the technological advances of the 80s the forex market expanded from trading levels of $70 billion a day to the current level of about $3 trillion. The aim of this project is to study Forex market along with different Forex Transactions. With development of the Forex market, the exposure of different companies and even countries has increased and so is risk associated with it. To hedge Forex risk we can use different tools, of which the most extensively used tool is derivatives. In this project I have studied the derivatives as a tool to hedge risk arisen due to Forex exposure. In the last part of this report, a small case study has been included which studies the hedging of Forex by IT industry. Different strategies for hedging are applied in this case study and best possible strategies are suggested for hedging.
Contents
1. FOREX MARKET ........................................................................................................ 6 1.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................... 6 1.2. How Foreign Currency Treasury Has Grown ........................................................ 7 1.3. The role of Forex in the Global Economy .............................................................. 7 1.4. Market size and liquidity ........................................................................................ 8 1.7. EXCHANGE RATE ............................................................................................. 13 1) PURCHASING POWER PARITY ( PPP )THEORY : ......................................... 13 2) BALANCE OF PAYMENTS THEORY:- .............................................................. 14 1.8 Determinants of Exchange rate ............................................................................ 15 1.9 EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMS ............................................................................ 17 FIXED EXCHANGE RATE ..................................................................................... 17 Floating/ Flexible exchange rate ............................................................................. 17 1.10. AUTHORIZED DEALERS (AD) ......................................................................... 18 1.11. LETTER OF CREDIT ........................................................................................ 19 PARTIES TO L/C: ................................................................................................... 19 TYPES OF L/C: ...................................................................................................... 21 Overview Of Flow Of Documentary Credit: ............................................................. 23 Operation of Documentary credit: ........................................................................... 24 2 DERIVATIVES MARKET ............................................................................................ 28 2.1. Introduction to Derivatives ................................................................................... 28 2.2. Participants and Functions .................................................................................. 29 FINANCIAL DERIVATIVES AS A RISK MANAGEMENT TOOL ................................ 29 3. Case Study ................................................................................................................ 31 Conclusion: ................................................................................................................ 33 BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................................................................................................ 34
1. FOREX MARKET
1.1. Introduction
The word Forex or FX stands for Foreign Exchange, and it is the simultaneous buying of one currency and selling of another.it is the largest financial market in the world. Currencies are traded in pairs, for example Euro/ US Dollar (EUR/US) or Great British Pounds/ Japanese Yen (GBD/JPY). The forex market handles a huge volume of transactions 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. Foreign exchange is defined in the FEMA 1999 as Foreign Exchange means foreign currency and includesi) Deposits, credits and balances payable in any foreign currency, ii) Drafts, travellers cheques, letters of credit or bills of exchange, expressed or drawn in Indian currency but payable in any foreign currency, iii) Drafts, travellers cheques, letters of credit or bills of exchange drawn by banks, institutions or persons outside India, but payable in Indian currency.
The foreign exchange market directly impacts every bond, equity, private property, manufacturing asset and any investments accessible to foreign investors. Foreign exchange rates play a major role in financing government deficits, equity ownership in companies and real-estate holdings. Foreign exchange trading helps determine who hires and fires employees, and who owns the banks at which you maintain your corporate and personal accounts. The currency in your pocket is literally stock in your country, and like a share, its value fluctuates on the international market providing knowledgeable traders with substantial opportunities for profit or loss.
The market has its own momentum, follows its own imperatives, and arrives at its own conclusions. These conclusions impact the value of all assets -it is crucial for every individual or institutional investor to have an understanding of the foreign exchange markets and the forces behind this ultimate free-market system. Inter-bank currency contracts and options, unlike futures contracts, are not traded on exchanges and are not standardized. Banks and dealers act as principles in these markets, negotiating each transaction on an individual basis. Forward "cash" or "spot" trading in currencies is substantially unregulated - there are no limitations on daily price movements or speculative positions.
As such, it has been referred to as the market closest to the ideal perfect competition, notwithstanding authorized market manipulation by central banks. According to the BIS average daily turnover in traditional foreign exchange markets is estimated at $3.21 trillion. Daily averages in April for different years, in billions of US dollars, are presented on the chart below:
4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1988 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2008 avg
Fig. 1
This $3.21 trillion in global foreign exchange market "traditional" turnover was broken down as follows: $1,005 billion in spot transactions $362 billion in outright forwards $1,714 billion in forex swaps $129 billion estimated gaps in reporting In addition to "traditional" turnover, $2.1 trillion was traded in derivatives. Exchange-traded forex futures contracts were introduced in 1972 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and are actively traded relative to most other futures contracts. Forex futures volume has grown rapidly in recent years, and accounts for about 7% of the total foreign exchange market volume, according to The Wall Street Journal Europe. Average daily global turnover in traditional foreign exchange market transactions totalled $2.7 trillion in April 2006 according to IFSL estimates based on semi-annual London, New York, Tokyo and Singapore Foreign Exchange Committee data. Overall turnover, including non-traditional foreign exchange derivatives and products traded on
exchanges, averaged around $2.9 trillion a day. This was more than ten times the size of the combined daily turnover on all the worlds equity markets. Foreign exchange trading increased by 38% between April 2005 and April 2006 and has more than doubled since 2001. This is largely due to the growing importance of foreign exchange as an asset class and an increase in fund management assets, particularly of hedge funds and pension funds. The diverse selection of execution venues such as internet trading platforms has also made it easier for retail traders to trade in the foreign exchange market. Because foreign exchange is an OTC market where brokers/dealers negotiate directly with one another, there is no central exchange or clearing house. The biggest geographic trading centre is the UK, primarily London, which according to IFSL estimates has increased its share of global turnover in traditional transactions from 31.3% in April 2004 to 32.4% in April 2006
EXPORT-IMPORT GROWTH India exports to 235 countries and imports from 230 countries some of them are given as follow:Dated: 2/7/2009 Values in Rs. Lacs COUNTRY INDIAS EXP(07-08) 463,013.06 73,725.43 1174321.29 1013178.34 509400.52 100443.79 4359741.55 1045415.11 2059892.83 869277.93 INDIAS IMP(07-08) 3,155,208.4 5 235,735.88 103468.16 381813.84 794017.52 741939.93 10911606.8 7 2517563.52 3973603.74 1942053.14 INDIAS EXP(08-09) (APR-DEC) 457,963.45 197,648.01 893747.31 1052682.14 450725.05 149299.97 2740339.14 973093.46 1954620.61 812379.49 INDIAS IMP(08-09) (APR-DEC) 3,391,849.1 4 229,793.07 117402.43 405066.14 796551.07 562477.36 10811628.9 9 1050071.8 3710825.89 2255431.43 CURR-ENCY AUD EUR BDT BRL CAD CLP CNY EUR EUR IDR
Australia Austria Banglades h Brazil Canada Chile China France Germany Indonesia
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Japan Korea Saudi Arab Singapore Spain Taiwan UK USA Indias total exp and imp
Table 1
WHAT DRIVES FOREX MARKET? Different countries use different currencies; however cross border transactions takes place. If the whole world used one currency only there would be no need for the forex market to exist. The need for the forex market comes from the need of exchange between countries, which in return reflect to the need for currency exchange. The price of the currencies are determined by the supply and demand, so unlike other markets that are subject for price manipulation it is simply too big for one entity to control. 1.6. PARTICIPANTS IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE 1. Customer: The customers who are engaged in foreign trade participate in foreign exchange market by availing of the services of banks. An exporter may require the services of the banks to convert his foreign currency receipts into domestic currency. Similarly an importer, who is requiring paying for the goods imported by him, utilizes the services of a bank to convert his local currency into foreign currency. Similar types of services may be required for settling in any international obligation i.e. payment of technical know how fees or repayment of foreign debt etc.
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2. Commercial Banks: Commercial banks dealing with international transactions offer services for conversion of one currency into another. They are the most active players in the Forex markets. These banks are specialized in international trades and other transactions. These banks act as intermediary between exporter and importer who are situated in different countries. 3. Central banks: Central Banks are conservative in their approach and normally do not trade in foreign exchange markets for making profits. However there are some aggressive Central Banks but markets have punished them very badly for their adventurism. In recent past, Malaysian Central bank, Bank Negara lost billions of US Dollars in trades in foreign Exchange markets 4. Exchange Brokers: In India, dealing is done in interbank market through Forex broker. The Forex brokers are not allowed to deal on their own account all over the world and also in India
5. Speculators: Speculators play a very active role in foreign exchange markets. In fact, major chunk of foreign exchange dealings in forex markets is on account of speculators and speculative activities. The following are the major speculators in forex markets: Banks dealing in Foreign exchange market Multinational corporations (MNCs) and Transnational Corporations (TNCs) Individuals, share dealings, also undertake the activity of buying and selling for booking short-term profits
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Pd = Domestic price index Pf = Foreign countrys price index. CRITICISMS OF THE PPP THEORY:The purchasing power parity theory is subject to the following criticisms: The theory makes use of the price index number to measure the changes in the equilibrium rate of exchange and hence the theory suffers from the various limitations of the price index number. The composition of the national income varies in different countries and hence the types of goods and services include in the index number may vary from country to country. The quality of goods and services may vary from country to country and Comparison of prices without regard to the quality is unrealistic. The price index number includes the price of all commodities and services. The theory ignores the trade barriers and cost of transportation in international trade. It ignores the effects of international capital movements in the foreign exchange market causing changes in the exchange rate. It ignores the impact of changes in the exchange rates on the prices. It does not explain the demand for and supply of foreign exchange, whereas the exchange rate is determined largely by demand and supply conditions. Despite many deficiencies, the purchasing power parity theory exposes some of very important aspects of exchange rate determination such as the relationship between the internal price levels/inflation and exchange rates, the state of the trade of a country as well as the nature of its demand of payments at a particular time etc.
2) BALANCE OF PAYMENTS THEORY:The Balance of Payments theory also known as the Demand and supply theory advocates that the foreign exchange rate, under free market conditions, is determined by demand and supply of currency in the foreign exchange market. Thus according to this theory the price of a currency i.e. the exchange rate is determined just like the price of any commodity by the free play of the market forces of demand and supply. The
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value of currency appreciates when the demand for it increases and depreciates when the demand falls, in relation to its supply in the foreign exchange market. The extent of the demand and supply of a countrys currency in foreign exchange market depends on the balance of payment position. When the balance of payment is in equilibrium the supply and demand for the currency are equal. The balance of payments theory provides a fairly satisfactory explanation of the determination of rate of exchange. This theory has the following merits: Unlike the purchasing power parity theory, the balance of payments theory recognizes the importance of all the items in the balance of payments in determining the exchange rate. It is in the conformity with the general theory of value like the price of any commodity in free market. It brings the determination of the rate of exchange within the purview of the general equilibrium theory. Therefore it is called as the general equilibrium theory of exchange rate determination. It also indicates that the balance of payments disequilibrium can be corrected by adjustments in the exchange rate.
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d) Money supply : Volume of money supply also affects the movement of exchange rate. This includes the purchase and sale of currencies and negotiable instruments such as bank drafts, letters of credit, and Bills of exchange etc. The credit availability and fixation of bank rates also influence the exchange rate. e) National income: The national income also influences the exchange rate. Higher GDP reflects stronger economy and currency commands a strong position in the international market. Growth in GDP shows increase in production, consumption and export of commodities/services thereby increase in inflow of foreign currencies thereby movement of exchange rate in favour of home currency. f) Resources: The availability of natural resources in the country like, mines, minerals, natural gases, coastal lines etc. helps in improving the national income and increased participation in the international trade. It is important to make best use of the available resources in harnessing countrys growth and improve per capita income. g) Movement of capital: Short term or long term capital movements of capital in the form of FII/FDI inflows or outflows also influence the exchange rate. Foreign Capital-in Flows tend to appreciate the value of the home currency. The exchange rate will move in favour of the capital-importing country and against the capital-exporting country. h) Political factors: Political conditions in the country have a significant influence on the exchange rate. Political stability, strong and efficient governance create confidence in the mind of citizens as well as foreigners to invest their funds in the country in the form of joint ventures, acquisitions, deposits, equity participation etc.. With the inflow of capital, the demand for domestic currency rises and the exchange rate moves in favour of the home currency. i) Market forces: Efficient and effective operation of Stock exchanges, operation in foreign securities, debentures, stocks and shares etc. exert significant influence on the exchange rate. If the stock exchanges play conducive role in the sale of securities, debentures, shares etc. to foreign investors, the demand for the domestic currency will rise and the exchange rate becomes favourable. j) Speculation: The growth of speculative activities also influence the exchange rate. Speculation causes short- term movement of funds causing volatility in the movement of exchange rates. Uncertainty in the global financial market encourages speculation in foreign exchange. If the speculators expect a fall in the value of currency in the near future, they will sell to acquire appreciating currency to exchange later in the financial market. k) Structural changes: It is another important factor which influences the exchange rate of the currency. These changes bring a shift in the consumer demand for commodities.
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They include technological changes, innovations, taste, preferences etc. which affect the demand for existing products and requirement of new products.
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in balance of payments, the exchange rate falls and this makes domestic goods cheaper in terms of the foreign currency and foreign goods more expensive in terms of the domestic currency. This encourages exports, and discourages imports and thus establishes the balance of payments equilibrium.
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PARTIES TO L/C:
1. OPENER (IMPORTER/BUYER): The buyer at whose instance the L/C is established by the issuing bank 2. ISSUING BANK: The bank, which establishes the credit at the instance of the importer, is known as issuing bank/opening bank. The issuing bank is primarily responsible for payment under the credit to the beneficiary.
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3. BENIFICARY (the exporter/seller): The party in whose favour the issuing bank at the instance of the importer establishes the credit is known as beneficiary. 4. ADVISING BANK: A L/C is normally advised to the beneficiary through a bank in the exporters country (Advising bank is correspondent of the issuing bank) who is required to verify the authenticity of the credit and advises the same to the beneficiary. 5. CONFIRMING BANK: The bank, which adds its confirmation to the credit, is known as confirming bank. The confirming bank has to make payment under the credit even if it is not able to recover the amount from the opening bank. 6. NEGOTIATING BANK: The bank, which negotiates documents tendered by the beneficiary, is known as negotiating bank. 7. REIMBURSING BANK/PAYING BANK: The bank, which makes payment/reimbursement as per the terms of credit, is known as reimbursing bank. 8. ACCEPTING BANK: Accepting bank is the bank nominated in the L/C to accept usance bills drawn under the credit. If the bank so nominated accepts the nomination, its responsibility to the beneficiary is not only to accept the drafts drawn, but also to make payment on their due dates.
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TYPES OF L/C:
A documentary credit may be classified under the following types depending upon the particular provisions it contains. (1) REVOCABLE L/C: Revocable L/C can be amended/modified/cancelled without the consent of the beneficiary, provided the beneficiary has not altered his position by shipping the goods. Hence, documents under revocable credits should not be negotiated by the bank. The beneficiary of the credit runs the risk of cancellation of the credit any time during the validity of the credit and hence this type of credit is very unsafe from the point view of the beneficiary. (2) IRREVOCABLE L/C: It carries definite undertakings on the part of issuing bank to honour the documents drawn strictly in conformity with the terms and conditions mentioned in the L/C. Hence, irrevocable L/C cannot be cancelled/amended without the consent of all parties concerned. (3) CONFIRMED L/C: Sometimes the beneficiary of the credit may not solely rely on the undertaking given by an issuing bank. He may have a fear the issuing bank may not honour its commitment due to the standing of the issuing bank or the FOREX position of the country in which L/C opening bank is situated. So, the beneficiary may not take the risk of supplying goods only on the strength of an unconfirmed L/C and he may insist on confirmation of the credit by a reputed bank situated in his own country or in any other country. When such a bank adds confirmation to the credit and gives a separate undertaking to honour the documents strictly in compliance of the credit, the confirming bank is bound by the undertaking provided the documents are submitted to them and are in conformity with the credit. A confirmed irrevocable credit is the best form of credit available to the exporter.
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(4) UNCONFIRMED CREDIT: The credit, which does not carry the confirmation of the confirming bank but has the undertaking of the issuing bank only is known as, unconfirmed credit. (5) TRANSFERABLE L/C: Here the issuing bank authorises the beneficiary to transfer the credit wholly or in part to any third party. Transferable credits are generally opened in favour of intermediaries who are not the manufacturers of the goods. Opening of this L/C at present does not require prior permission of RBI. The issuing bank can transfer a credit only if it is expressly designated as transferable. Terms such as divisible, fractional, assignable, and transmissible do not render the credit transferable. If such terms are used, they shall be disregarded. Bank charges in respect of transfers are payable by the first beneficiary unless otherwise specified. The transferring bank shall be under no obligation to affect transfer until such charges are paid. (6) BACK TO BACK L/C: The beneficiary of an irrevocable L/C may not be the actual supplier of the goods.(He would be a middleman as in the case of transferable credit). He will request his banker to open a further L/C(the back to back' credit) favouring the supplier, based on the original credit. The terms of the second credit will thus need to be tailored to ensure that the first beneficiary can meet the terms of the credit in his favour and he would substitute certain documents to meet the requirement of the first credit.
(7) REVOLVING L/C: Where a buyer requires a regular supply of goods periodically, he may approach his banker to open a revolving L/C in favour of the beneficiary. The amount of the credit is reinstated on the receipt of advice from the issuing bank to the effect that the previous documents drawn under the credit are paid for. Revolving L/C stipulates maximum total drawings under the credit. It is arranged where seller makes continuous shipments and
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once utilised is available again It saves necessity of raising fresh credit for each shipment.
Fig. 3
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In this step, the issuing bank receives Letter of Credit either as hard copy or through SWIFT. After receiving LC the Issuing Bank advises this LC that is, it prepares the covering letter and the LC is authenticated by the officers. After that the Issuing Bank Courier the LC to the Beneficiary Bank and end the transaction of Advising the Letter Of Credit.
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Fig. 5
Stage III
The beneficiary after shipping the goods will present the documents for payment to his bank. In case of confirmed Letter of Credit he will be presenting the documents to the confirming bank directly. On the receipt of the documents, the Negotiating bank / Conforming bank will scrutinize the documents thoroughly and if the documents are drawn 'credit complied', pay value to the exporter/ beneficiary of the LC. The bank, which has paid value to the beneficiary, will claim reimbursement from the bank notified by the issuing bank in the letter of credit. Simultaneously, Negotiating bank will forward the documents to the issuing bank, which will hand over the documents to the Applicant after recovering the bill value. Applicant/Importer will accept the documents and pay if the documents are as per the requirement.
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Step IV Realization of funds: When the goods are as per the Letter of Credit then the customer authorizes the Bank to make the payment and settle the transaction. The Bank checks the limits of the customer, if it is found to be sufficient affect the payment. If the payment of the bill exceeds Rs. 250000/- then the rate is to be taken by Treasury else the payment is effected through Card rate.
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2 DERIVATIVES MARKET
2.1. Introduction to Derivatives
The emergence of market for derivative products, most notably forwards, futures and options, can be traced back to the willingness of risk-averse economic agents to guard themselves against uncertainties arising out of fluctuations in asset prices. By their very nature, the financial markets are marked by a very high degree of volatility. Through the use of derivative products, it is possible to partially or fully transfer price risks by lockingin asset prices. As instruments of risk management, these generally do not influence the fluctuations in the underlying asset prices. However, by locking-in asset prices, derivative products minimize the impact of fluctuations in asset prices on the profitability and cash flow situations of risk-averse investors. Derivatives defined Derivative is a product whose value is derived from the value of one or more basic variables, called bases (underlying asset, index, or reference rate), in a contractual manner. The underlying asset can be equity, forex, commodity or any other asset. For example, wheat farmers may wish to sell their harvest at a future date to eliminate the risk of a change in prices by that date. Such a transaction is an example of a derivative. The price of the derivative is driven by the spot price of wheat which is the underlying. In the Indian context the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956 (SC(R) A) defines derivative to include:1. A security derived from a debt instrument, share, loan whether secured or unsecured, risk instrument or contract for differences or any other form of security. 2. A contract which derives its value from the prices, or index of prices, of underlying securities. Derivatives are securities under the SC(R) A and hence the trading of derivatives is governed by the regulatory framework under the SC(R) A
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HEDGERS They use futures or options markets to reduce or eliminate the risk associated with price of an asset SPECULATORS Speculators use futures and options contracts to get extra leverage in betting on future movements in the price of an asset. They can increase both the potential gains and potential losses by usage of derivatives in a speculative venture. ARBITRAGEURS Arbitrageurs are in business to take advantage of a discrepancy between prices in two different markets. If, for example, they see the futures price of an asset getting out of line with the cash price, they will take offsetting positions in the two markets to lock in a profit.
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been a dramatic increase in the volatility of economic variables such as interest rates, exchange rates, commodity prices etc. Firms that monitor their risks carefully and manage their risks with judicious policies enjoy a more stable business than those who are unable to identify and manage their risks. There are many risks which are influenced by factors external to the business and therefore suitable mechanisms to manage and reduce such risks need to be adopted.
Defining Risk Risk, in simple terms, may be defined as the uncertainty of returns. Risks arise because
of a number of factors, but can be broadly classified into two categories: as business risks and financial risks. Business risks include strategic risk, macroeconomic risk, competition risk and technological innovation risk. Managers should be capable of identifying such risks, adapting themselves to the new environment and maintaining their competitive advantage. Financial risk, on the other hand, is caused due to financial market activities and includes liquidity risk and credit risk. The role of financial institutions is to set up mechanisms by which firms can devolve the financial risks to the institutions meant for this purpose and thereby concentrate on managing their business risks. Financial institutions float various financial instruments and set up appropriate mechanisms to help businesses manage their financial risks. They help businesses through:
Lending/ Borrowing of cash to enable the firms to adjust their future cash flows. Serving as avenues for savings and investments, helping individuals and firms in accumulating wealth and also earn a return on their investment.
Providing insurance, which protects against operational risks such as natural disasters, terrorist attacks etc. Providing means for hedging for the risk-averse who want to reduce their risks against any future uncertainty
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3. Case Study
TCS posted a forex loss of Rs 300 crore in Q3 of FY 2011-2012. Excerpts from Indian Express Jan 18, 2012 Tata Consultancy Services, Indias largest software services exporter, has reported a 18.2 per cent rise in net profit for the third quarter driven of FY12 by double-digit growth in Europe and US markets. The companys business grew 18.1 per cent in Europe, despite the volatilities in the region and 13.5 per cent in the US market. Net profit for the quarter stood at Rs 2,803 crore as against Rs 2,370 crore in the same quarter last year. Net revenues for the quarter stood at Rs 13,204 crore, a growth of 36.6 per cent over Rs 9,663 crore in the same quarter last year. Sequentially, net profit rose 22 per cent. TCS posted a forex loss of Rs 300 crore in Q3. Currency has had a 2.82 per cent margin impact for Q3, says S Mahalingam, chief financial officer at TCS. The company has hedged $1.3 billion for the next quarter for the current financial year at Rs 49 per US dollar. TCS shares fell 0.28 per cent to Rs 1,104.30 in a strong market. Clients are shifting towards more cost-efficient and innovative models that can aid in quick decision making, says N Chandrasekaran, chief executive officer and managing director at TCS. While technology budgets are still being set for next fiscal, there is little doubt that technology is a key resource to help global businesses optimise their operations and fuel growth in the current economic climate. In this environment TCS is partnering with clients to achieve their objectives using our integrated portfolio of solutions, he said.
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TCS incurred loss of Rs300 cr. The company has hedged $1.3 billion for the next quarter for the current financial year at Rs 49 per US dollar. But Re depreciated to around 52.35 in Dec 2012 with average price for quarter at around Rs51.3 per $. The company entered in forward contract for selling $1.3Bn at Rs 49. But Re depreciated and thus TCS has to incur loss of around Rs300 Cr due to Forex volatility. Now we will see different strategies which TCS could have used to tackle this problem and minimize the loss. 1. Long Put Option: In this strategy, TCS could have bought Put option at strike price Rs 49. This could have been useful to limit the loss to the premium paid for the option. The premium for this option at that time taking into consideration volatility and interest rates would be 0.54. So the loss could have been limited to Rs70 Cr. Loss = Premium*1.3Bn = 0.54*1.3 Bn = Rs 70 Cr
2. Long Straddle: Buy a put and call at the same strike rate i.e. Rs 49. The profit will be unlimited for decrease or increase in underlying and loss will be limited to the premium paid. The loss will be maximum if the prize is same as strike prize at expiry. Had TCS used this strategy they could have kept the loss at maximum around Rs 70 Cr.
3. Long Call option along with the forward contract: Buy a call option at same strike price as that of forward contract i.e. at Rs49. So now as the spot rate is Rs 52.35, TCS could sell $1.3Bn in spot market at the spot rate so would have incurred no loss. The only scenario of loss was if spot price goes below strike price but the loss is limited to the premium of option.
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Conclusion:
By far the most significant event in finance during the past decade has been the extraordinary development and expansion of financial derivatives. These instruments enhance the ability to differentiate risk and allocate it to those investors most able and willing to take it In the above case also we can see that the losses of the company can be minimized by using different derivatives and their strategies. TCS lost Rs300Cr due to hedging and entering into forward contracts but this impact could have been minimized. Also the company could have lost more money if the foreign exchange market had gone the other way round, i.e. appreciation of re, in case they had not hedged using financial tools like derivatives. So we can conclude that in todays volatile markets, derivatives are the tool which can be used to minimize the risk. However, it depends on the proper selection and use of these products, the amount of risk which gets covered. Derivatives can also lead to loss if not used in properly and astutely.
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
Hull C John, Options, Futures & Other Derivatives. Prakash G Apte International Finance, Tata McGraw-Hill Publications, 2008. Raju Vadi Foreign Exchange & Risk Management, Himalaya Publications, 2007 www.rbi.org www,ecb.int www.boi.co.in www.financialexpress.com
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