Energy Scenario (Part II)

World Energy demand Past, present and Future Demand Conventional & Alternative Energy Sources
Based on References: J.A. Fay, D.S. Golomb, Energy and the Environment Oxford Univ. Press, 2002. Other sources on Web
Lecture Notes Compiled By Dr. Saqaff A. Alkaff
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 Survey the worlds energy reserves and resources. Review historic trends of energy usage Estimates of the world future supply and demand. This will be introduced, globally, by continent and country, by energy use sector, and by proportion to population and gross domestic product.

Nonhuman Mechanical Powernergy

wind power

Domesticated Animals

Wood was the principal fuel to cook food

3 wind power to grind grain.

INTRODUCTION In preindustrial economies, only very limited amounts of nonhuman mechanical power were available, such as that of domesticated animals, the use of wind power to propel boats and pump water, and the use of water power to grind grain. Wood was the principal fuel to cook food, to heat dwellings, and to smelt and rene metals. in industrial nations, or in the urban-industrial areas of developing nations, the availability of fossil and nuclear fuels has vastly increased the amount of energy that can be expended on economic production and personal 4 consumption.

The principal sources of energy in present societies are: Fossil energy (coal, petroleum, and natural gas), Nuclear energy, and Hydro-energy. Other energy sources, the so-called renewables, are presently supplying a very small fraction of the total energy consumption of the world, renewables include Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Biomass, Ocean-thermal, Ocean-mechanical energy. In fact, hydro-energy may also be called a renewable energy source, although usually it is not classied together with solar, wind, or biomass.
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Highlighting the supply and consumption patterns of energy in the world today, along with the historical trends, with emphasis on available resources and their rate of depletion. In recent years the effects of the global consumption of fossil fuels on the increase of atmospheric concentration of CO2 has become an international concern. It is useful to include in our accounting the concomitant (related) CO2 emissions to provide a perspective on the problem of managing the potential threat of global climate change due to these emissions.

GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION The trend of world energy consumption from 1970 to 1997 and projections to 2020. The worldwide energy consumption in 1997 was 380 Quads, In 1997
Industrialised countries, also called developed countries, consumed 54% of the worlds energy, the less developed countries consumed 31.5%, Eastern European and former Soviet Union countries EE/FSU consumed 14.5%.

205
Less developed will in 2020, the projection is that theConsume more Energy less by 2020 developed countries will consume a greater

205/380=

percentage of the worlds energy than

Quad (Q) = 1 quadrillion (10 ) British thermal units (Btu) = 1.055*10 joules (J) = 1.055 exajoules (EJ) = 2.9307 *1011) kilowatt hours (kWh). [1kWH=3.6MJ or 1 MJ=0.2777 kWH]

Trend of worlds energy consumption for 19701997 and a projection to 2020. 18 15

The worldwide energy consumption in 2008 was around 500 Quads with an annual increase of 80% around 2%

a Data from U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency, 1997. International Energy Outlook 1997. b Gross Domestic Product in constant 1987 U.S. dollars. c NA, not applicable

World Total population 7 bilion (2011)

Malaysia 97.37 GJ/cap/y (2003)

 The United States is the largest consumer of energy (88.2 Q), followed by China (35.7 Q) and India (30.6 Q). The U S consumes 23.2 % of the worlds energy with 4.6 % of the worlds population (1996); (from the previous table 263/5274=4.9%) and consume (88.2/380=23.2%) western Europe consumes 16.7 % of the worlds energy with 6.5 % of the worlds population. China consumes about 10 % of the worlds energy with 21 % of the worlds population, whereas India consumes 3 % of the energy with 16.3 % of the population. Canada, Norway, and the United States are the worlds highest users of energy per capita: 395, 390, and 335 million Btu per capita per year, respectively. Russia consumes 181 MBtu/cap/y, Japan 171, United Kingdom 169, Germany 168, and France 162.
Check for all those consumed more of World Energy, (a small part of the worldpopulation)

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 The less developed countries consume much less energy per capita. For example: Mexico consumes 59 MBtu /cap y, Brazil 43, China 29.4, Indonesia 54.1, and India 32.6. The world average consumption is 66.4 MBtu/cap y. If we compare the energy consumption per GDP, a different picture emerges. Among developed countries, Canada uses 24.5 kBtu/$ GDP , Norway 16.7, US 16.2, U K 12.5, Germany 9.1, France 9, Italy 8.4, and Japan 7.1. Canada, Norway, and the US use more energy per GDP than the other western European countries and Japan, in part because of the colder climate, larger living spaces, longer driving distances, and larger automobiles.
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 On the other hand, Russia and the less developed countries (with the exception of Brazil) spend a higher rate of energy per dollar GDP This is an indication that much of the population in these countries does not (yet) contribute signicantly to the GDP. Furthermore, their industrial facilities, power generation, and heating (or cooling) systems apparently are less efcient or in other ways more wasteful of energy than in Canada, United States, western Europe, and Japan.
Gross Domestic Product The financial value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders per year. It includes all of private and public consumption, government expenses, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined region.
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GLOBAL ENERGY SOURCES

The worlds energy consumption in 2008

Petroleum (39 %), Coal (25 %), Natural gas (21.5 %), Nuclear electric (6.3 %), Hydroelectric (7.5 %), and Geothermal and other Renewables (0.7 %)

The worlds energy consumption in 1997

Proportions (%) of worlds energy consumption (SUPPLIED BY PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCES, 1997) (Source: International Energy Outlook 2000 13

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 The trend of the growth of energy sources from 1970 to 1997 and the prediction to 2020
The projection for the next two decades is that nuclears share will decline and the share of renewables will increase, with

increase of the use of solar, wind, and biomass energy.

The trend of the growth of energy sources from 1970 to 1997 and the prediction to 2020. (Source: International Energy Outlook 2000.)

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Linear Growth Rate Over the 10 Years 19871997: The worldwide energy consumption was increasing at approximately 1.55 % per year. Coal consumption grew by 0.8 %/y on the average, Natural gas 2.45 %/y, Petroleum 1.1 %/y, nuclear 2.2 %/y, Hydroelectric 2.1 %/y, and Geothermal and other energy sources 13 %/y.
In the US, energy consumption increased 1.7 %/y on the average over the 10 years. Chinas energy consumption grew 5.3 %/y on the average, whereas Indias energy use increased about 6.6 %/y. Most of the growth is due to increased fossil fuel consumption
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Recent Records (Key findings in the IEO2011 Reference case)

World energy consumption increases by 53% between 2008 and 2035 with half of the increase attributed to China and India [An annual increase around 2%] Renewables are the worlds fastest-growing energy source, at 2.8% per year; renewables share of world energy grows to roughly 15% in 2035 Fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80% of world energy use in 2035 Liquid fuels remain the largest energy source worldwide through 2035, but the oil share of total energy declines to 28% in 2035, as sustained high oil prices dampen demand and encourage fuel switching where possible and modest use of liquid 21 biofuels

GLOBAL ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION Electricity generation by primary energy (fossil, nuclear, hydropower, geothermal, and other renewable sources of energy).
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the worlds total electricity production was close to 12 trillion kWh. By 2020, the production is predicted to increase to over 21 trillion kWh.

7.2

3.8

The trend of the worlds electricity production from 1990 to 1997 and the prediction to 2020 International Energy Outlook 2000 22

Of the 1997 (previous Figure) electricity production, was met by the following energy :Fossil is 63 % ,Hydro-energy 19 % nuclear energy 17 % ,geothermal and renewable sources <1 % The majority of the fossil (over 80 %) was in the form of coal.
Worldwide thermal power plants 33.3 %, in 1997 these plants consumed 32.6 % of the worlds primary energy and 55.5 % of the worlds fossil energy.

Proportions (%) of the worlds electricity generation supplied by primary energy sources, 1997. International Energy Outlook 1997.) 23

Main energy sources for electricity

The reliance on energy sources for electricity production varies from country to country. For example, in the 1996, U.S. electricity production 3079 billion kWh.

and geothermal and other sources less than 0.3 %

Hydropower is a signicant contributor to US electricity generation in 1996

Proportions (%) of primary energy sources supplying U.S. electricity 24 generation, 1996. (Source:. International Energy Outlook 1997.)

Hydropower is a significant contributor to electricity generation for The following Countries Hydropower (No emmissions) Norway about 100 %, In Brazil 93.5 %, New Zealand 74 %, Austria 70 %, Switzerland 61 %. China and India produce about 19 % While hydroelectricity is a relatively clean source of energy and there is still a potential for its greater use worldwide. BUT Building dams in remote, inhospitable areas will be expensive and hazardous. Furthermore, there is a growing public opposition to damming up more rivers and streams for environmental reasons and also because of the dislocation of population that is often involved in creating upstream reservoirs
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Geothermal energy Supplies a signicant portion of electricity in the following countries El Salvador (28.5 % of Electric power provided by Geothermal Nicaragua (18.5 %), Costa Rica (10.3 %), New Zealand (5.7 %), Iceland (5.3 %), Mexico (3.8 %), Brazil (2.6 %), Indonesia (1.8 %), and Italy (1.6 %).

Geothermal energy has a great potential for supplying heat and electricity to many areas of the world.

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Fossil-fueled power plants, emit CO2 and other fossil-energyrelated pollutants (SO2 , NOx , particulate matter to the atmosphere NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS do not emit any of the above to the atmosphere. However, the fear of nuclear accidents and the unresolved problem of nuclear waste disposal has brought the construction of additional nuclear power plants to a halt in many countries. In the United States, several nuclear power plants are presently being decommissioned even before their normal retirement date. On the other hand, in some countries, new nuclear power plants are being constructed, and nuclear energy does provide a signicant portion of the total electricity production. For example, in France 76 % of the electricity is nuclear-electric, South Korea 36 %, Germany 29 %, Taiwan 27 %, and Japan 26 %.27

GLOBAL CARBON EMISSIONS The next Table, lists the total carbon emissions, carbon emissions per capita and per GDP of several countries in the world in 1996. (Emissions are calculated in mass of carbon, not that of CO2 .) In terms of absolute quantities, the United States and China are the largest emitters of carbon US =1407 (Mt/y )million metric tons per year and China 871 (Mt/y], Russia (496 Mt/y). In terms of per capita emissions, US= 5270 (kg/cap y) kilogram per capita per year, Canada = 4040 (kg/cap y) US & CANADA were the largest emitters, followed by Russia, 3340 kg/cap y.
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a Data from U.S. Department of Energy, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge. b Million metric tons of carbon per year c Gross Domestic Product in constant 1987 U.S. dollars. 29 d NA, not applicable.

In countries where nonfossil energy is used for electricity generation and other purposes, the per capita carbon emissions are lower.
Thus, while the energy consumption per capita in Germany and France are similar (168 and 162 MBtu/cap y, respectively, the carbon emissions are quite different (2790 and 1600 kg/cap y, respectively). This reects the

greater use of nuclear energy for electricity generation in France.

Similarly, Switzerland and New Zealand have lower carbon emissions per capita (1470 and 2100 kg/cap y, respectively) than other industrial countries, because of their use of hydroenergy and geothermal energy. The world average is 1100 kg/cap y. US emits about ve times as much carbon per capita as the 30 worlds average. US= 5270 (kg/cap y) year

Shares of Global Final Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions by Sector, 2005

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An interesting picture emerges (In terms of carbon emissions per dollar GDP) In US and Canada is 0.26 and 0.25 kg carbon per dollar whereas in Japan, Germany, France, Italy, and UK, it ranges from 0.1 to 0.2 kg/$. This is due to the higher consumption of energy per unit of GDP (see table slide 24) in US and Canada, but also from the fact that the United States and Canada use more fossil fuel per capita for space heating, space cooling, and transportation than do the European countries and Japan. In Russia, the ratio of carbon emission per dollar GDP is 2.01, China 1.62, India 0.65, Indonesia 0.62, and Mexico 0.63 kg/$. In these countries, fossil fuel is not used as efciently in the production of GDP. The exception is Brazil, where the ratio is 0.2 kg/$, probably on account of Brazils greater use of hydro energy and biomass energy. (Note : emissions from forest burning are not 32

END-USE ENERGY CONSUMPTION (US an Example) In order to gain some insight as to where lie the greatest potentials in energy savings, it is useful to consider the consumption of energy in each end use sector. The major sectors are : Residential commercial, industrial, and Transportation

In other countries the end-use pattern may differ somewhat, depending on the industrial output of the country (heavy vs. light industry), climate (heating vs. air conditioning, or neither), and automobile usage (personal vs. freight; distances traveled).
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In 1996, the U.S. total primary energy consumption was close to 90 Q(Table in slide 9). Of this : the industrial sector consumed 36.2 %, (high tech) residentialcommercial 36.6 %, Lead to low energy Consumption in Industrial sector and transportation 27.2 %. In 1973, the shares of the three sectors were: industry 43 %, (low-tech) residential commercial 32 %, and transportation 25 %. This reects the trend of (1973 1996) (a) population growth and (b) a shift from an industrial to a service oriented economy, and within the industrial sector, a shift from heavy (low-tech) to light (high tech) industry. In US, (19731996) the energy consumption per GDP declined. In 1973, it was 19,000 Btu per constant 1992 dollar; in 1996, 13,000 Btu per 1992 dollar. This shift reects the 34 increasing share of the service industry to the total economy.

Industrial Sector
35 % is used for boiler fuel. (electricity generation; a smaller part is used for space heating. Direct process heat consumes 33 %, machine drive 14 %, non-process uses 12 %, electrochemical processes 3 %, and process cooling and other uses 2 % Trend of U.S. energy consumption for industrial, residentialcommercial, and transportation sectors in 19731996.
(Source: International Energy Outlook 1997..)

Proportions (%) of primary energy use in the U.S. industrial sector.

(Energy Information Agency, 1994) Industrial Sector (1973) 32/(32+24+19)=43% Industrial Sector (1996) 33/(33+31+24)=37%
Energy consumption for industrial production barely increased, whereas the consumption for the residential commercial and transportation sectors in- creased signicantly

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Even though the industrial sector has become more energy efcient over the past years, there is still room for improvement. Industry could save energy by process modication, better heat exchangers, more efcient drive mechanisms, variable-speed motors. In some cases, cogeneration can save energy. In cogeneration, heat (steam) and electricity required by the industrial process and the other energy needs for the facility (e.g., space heating) are supplied from the same power plant. The fuel savings are especially pronounced, in cases 36 of energy recovery.

Residential Sector
Of the total energy used by the residential sector about 40 % is used for appliances and lighting (mainly electricity), 34 % for space heating (mainly fossil fuel as petroleum and natural gas), 16 % for water heating (mainly electricity and natural gas), and 10 % for air conditioning (mainly electricity). Signicant savings in space heating could be realized by conservation (e.g., lowering the thermostat in winter and raising it in summer) and by better insulation. Solar heating could be more widely utilized both for space and water heating. Appliances can be made more energy efcient and smaller. Lighting could be converted from incandescent to uorescent bulbs.
Proportions (%) of primary energy use in the U.S. residential sector. (from U.S. Information 37 Agency, 1990)

Commercial Sector Of the total energy used in the commercial sector, about 26 % is used for lighting, 19 % for space heating, 9 % for ofce equipment, 8.5 % for water heat, 7.5 % for air conditioning, 7 % for ventilation, 5 % for refrigeration, 3.5 % for cooking, and 14.5 % for other uses. As in the residential sector, this sector could also realize large energy savings, especially in lighting, space heating, cooling, and ventilation.
Proportions (%) of primary energy use in the U.S. commercial sector. (Agency,
1990. Energy Markets and End
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Transportation Sector Of the total energy used by the transportation sector, about 42 % is used for personal automobile transport, 20 % for light trucks (often just used for personal transport), 16 % for heavy freight, 9 % for air, 7 % for water, 4 % for pipe, and 2 % for rail transport . Considering that in the US the transportation fuel is practically from petroleum,

Proportions (%) of primary energy use in the U.S. transportation sector. (Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 15.)

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 > 50 % of petroleum is imported, that automobiles are responsible for about 50 % of ground-level air pollution, and that the transportation sector contributes about one-third of U.S. CO2 emissions, the transportation sector could realize signicant savings in energy consumption and reduction in air pollutant and carbon emissions. This could be accomplished by a) reducing the weight of automobiles, b) increased engine fuel efciency, c) using fuel cell and battery powered electric drive cars, d) using hybrid internal combustion engine-electric powered cars, and e) increased use of public transportation.
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summary We reviewed the historic trends of energy consumption and supply patterns in the world as a whole, as well as in individual countries by industrial sector, by end-use, and per capita. The so-called developed countries consume a much larger amount of energy and emit a much higher rate of CO2 per capita than the less developed countries. However, the opposite is true for energy use per Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The less developed countries have a higher ratio of energy consumption and a higher emission rate of CO2 per dollar GDP than the developed 41 countries.