CONDUCTING MARKETING RESEARCH AND FORECASTING DEMAND

MARIA TERESA JUSON

POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY OF THE PHILIPPINES MBA

Outline:
What is Marketing research?
What is the marketing research process? How to conduct a marketing research?

How to overcome Barriers to the Use of

Marketing Research ? How can we measure Marketing Productivity?

Outline:
What is Forecasting?
Why do we need to study forecasting and

demand measurement?

Marketing Research

The systematic design, collection, analysis, and

reporting of data and findings relevant to a specific marketing situation facing the company.

MARKETING RESEARCH FIRMS FALL INTO THREE CATEGORIES

1. Syndicated-service research firms 2. Custom marketing research firms 3. Specialty-line marketing research firms

SMALL COMPANIES CAN HIRE THE SERVICES OF A MARKETING RESEARCH FIRM OR CONDUCT RESEARCH IN CREATIVE AND AFFORDABLE WAYS, SUCH AS:

1. Engaging students or professors to design and carry

out projects 2. Using the Internet 3. Checking out rivals

MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

HOW TO CONDUCT A MARKETING RESEARCH?

MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

HOW TO CONDUCT A MARKETING RESEARCH?

1
Define the problem

DEFINE THE PROBLEM AND RESEARCH OBJECTIVES

MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

HOW TO CONDUCT A MARKETING RESEARCH?

2
Develop the research plan

DEVELOP THE RESEARCH PLAN

MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

HOW TO CONDUCT A MARKETING RESEARCH?

DATA RESOURCES
> Primary data > Secondary data

MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

THE MARKETING RESEARCH PROCESS

1. Observational Research 2. Focus Group Research

3. Survey Research
4. Behavioral Data 5. Experimental Research

MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

QUESTIONNAIRE DOS AND DON'TS

1. Ensure that questions are without bias 2. Make the questions as simple as possible 3. Make the questions specific 4. Avoid jargon or shorthand 5. Steer clear of sophisticated or uncommon words 6. Avoid ambiguous words 7. Avoid questions with a negative in them 8. Avoid hypothetical questions 9. Do not use words that could be misheard

10. Desensitize questions by using response bands

11. Ensure that fixed responses do not overlap 12. Allow for "other" in fixed response questions

MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

RESEARCH INSTRUMENTS
Questionnaires
Closed-end questions Open-end questions

MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

RESEARCH INSTRUMENTS
Qualitative Measures Here are seven techniques employed by design firm IDEO for understanding the customer experience: Shadowing Behavior mapping Consumer journey Camera journals Extreme user interviews Storytelling Unfocus groups

GETTING INTO CONSUMERS' HEADS WITH QUALITATIVE RESEARCH

1. Word associations 2. Projective techniques 3. Visualization. 4. Brand personification.

5. Laddering.

MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

RESEARCH INSTRUMENTS
Technological Devices

Galvanometer - can measure the interest or emotions aroused by exposure to a specific ad or picture Tachistoscope flashes an ad to a subject with an exposure interval that may range from less than one hundredth of a second to several seconds. After each exposure, the respondent describes everything he or she recalls.

Eye cameras study respondents' eye movements to see where their eyes land first, how long they linger on a given item, and so on.
Audiometers can be attached to television sets in participating homes to record when the set is on and to which channel it is tuned. Global Positioning System (GPS) technology, ex. To check how many billboards a person may walk by or drive by during a day.

SAMPLING PLAN
After deciding on the research approach and instruments, the marketing researcher must design a sampling plan. This calls for three decisions:

Sampling unit: Who is to be surveyed? Sample size: How many people should be surveyed? Sampling procedure: How should the respondents be chosen?

MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

CONTACT METHODS
Mail Questionnaire Telephone Interview

Personal Interview

Online Interview

MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

Research Plan

DATA SOURCES Primary Secondary

RESEARCH APPROACH Observational Ethnographic Focus Group Survey Behavioral Experimental

RESEARCH INSTRUMENT Questionnaire Qualitative Measures Technological Devices

SAMPLING PLAN Sampling unit Sample size Sampling procedure

CONTACT METHODS Mail Questionnaire Telephone interview Personal interview Online interview

MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

PROS and Cons of Online Research

Advantages:

Inexpensive cost is between 20-50% less than the convensional survey cost. Fast transmit results immediately People tend to be honest online Versatile ex. Virtual reality lets visitors inspect 3-D models of products.

Disadvantages: Samples can be small and skewed Prone to technological problems and inconsistencies.

MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

HOW TO CONDUCT A MARKETING RESEARCH?

3
Collect the info

COLLECT THE INFORMATION

MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

HOW TO CONDUCT A MARKETING RESEARCH?

4
Analyze the info

ANALYZE THE INFORMATION

MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

HOW TO CONDUCT A MARKETING RESEARCH?

5
Present the findings

PRESENT THE FINDINGS

MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

HOW TO CONDUCT A MARKETING RESEARCH?

6
Make the decision

MAKE THE DECISION

The Seven Characteristics of Good Marketing Research

1. Scientific method 2. Research creativity 3. Multiple methods 4. Interdependence of models and data 5. Value and cost of information 6. Healthy skepticism 7. Ethical marketing

Overcoming Barriers to the Use of Marketing Research

A narrow conception of the research
Uneven caliber of researchers

Poor framing of the problem

Late and occasionally erroneous findings

Personality and presentational differences

Measuring Marketing Productivity

Two complementary approaches to measure marketing productivity are: 1. Marketing metrics to assess marketing effects 2. marketing-mix modeling to estimate causal relationships and how marketing activity affects outcomes

Sample Marketing Metrics

I External Awareness Market share (volume or value) Relative price (market share value/volume) Number of complaints (level of dissatisfaction) Consumer satisfaction Distribution/availability Total number of customers Perceived quality/esteem Loyalty/retention Relative perceived quality
II. Internal Awareness of goals Commitment to goals Active innovation support Resource adequacy Staffing/skill levels Desire to learn Willingness to change Freedom to fail Autonomy Relative employee satisfaction

Measuring Marketing Plan Performance

SALES ANALYSIS
OVERALL

>Sales-variance analysis >Microsales analysis MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS

A useful way to analyze market share movements is in terms of four components:

X CUSTOMER MARKET PENETRATION

X CUSTOMER LOYALTY

X CUSTOMER SELECTIVITY

X PRICE SELECTIVITY

Forecasting and Demand Measurement

One major reason for undertaking marketing research is to identify market opportunities Marketing is responsible for preparing the sales forecasts

Sales forecasts are based on estimates of demand

Forecasting and Demand Measurement

The Measures of Market Demand The potential market The available market The target market The penetrated market

A VOCABULARY FOR DEMAND MEASUREMENT MARKET DEMAND MARKET FORECAST

MARKET POTENTIAL
COMPANY DEMAND

COMPANY SALES FORCAST

COMPANY SALES POTENTIAL

ESTIMATING CURRENT DEMAND

ESTIMATED POTENTIAL NUMBER OF BUYERS QUANTITY PURCHASED BY A BUYER TOTAL MARKET POTENTIAL

PRICE

AREA MARKET POTENTIAL Two major methods of assessing area market potential: 1. Market-Buildup Method 2. Multiple-Factor Index Method

ESTIMATING CURRENT DEMAND TOTAL MARKET POTENTIAL AREA MARKET POTENTIAL

Two major methods of assessing area market potential:

1. Market-Buildup Method 2. Multiple-Factor Index Method

ESTIMATING CURRENT DEMAND

INDUSTRY AND MARKET SHARES

ESTIMATING FUTURE DEMAND

SURVEY OF BUYERS' INTENTIONS

COMPOSITE OF SALES FORCE OPINIONS EXPERT OPINION PAST-SALES ANALYSIS MARKET-TEST METHODS

THE 4 Ws and H of MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

WHAT IS MARKETING RESEARCH?

Systematic design

THE 4 Ws and H of MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

WHAT IS MARKETING RESEARCH?

Systematic design

Collection

THE 4 Ws and H of MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

WHAT IS MARKETING RESEARCH?

Systematic design

Collection

Analysis

THE 4 Ws and H of MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

WHAT IS MARKETING RESEARCH?

Systematic design

Collection

Analysis

Reporting

THE 4 Ws and H of MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

WHAT IS MARKETING RESEARCH?

Systematic design

Collection

Reporting

Analysis

S.C.A.R of data and findings relevant to a specific marketing situation of the company

THE 4 Ws and H of MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

WHY MARKETING RESEARCH?

It is a system to
produce INSIGHTS into the customers ATTITUDES and buying BEHAVIOR

THE 4 Ws and H of MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

WHEN TO SAY WE HIT THE MARKET?

Marketing Metrics

Marketing Mix Modeling

Marketing Dashboards

Measured Market Productivity

THE 4 Ws and H of MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

WHEN TO SAY WE HIT THE MARKET?

Marketing Metrics

Consumer behavior

Competitors

THE 4 Ws and H of MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

WHEN TO SAY WE HIT THE MARKET?

Marketing Mix Modeling

Market share

Customer satisfaction
Employee satisfaction

THE 4 Ws and H of MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

WHEN TO SAY WE HIT THE MARKET?

Marketing Metrics

Stakeholder performance scorecard Customer performance scorecard

THE 4 Ws and H of MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

WHERE TO SET SIGHTS IN THE MARKET?

THE 4 Ws and H of MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

WHERE TO SET SIGHTS IN THE MARKET?

MEASURE OF MARKET DEMAND POTENTIAL MARKET

THE 4 Ws and H of MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

WHERE TO SET SIGHTS IN THE MARKET?

MEASURE OF MARKET DEMAND AVAILABLE MARKET

THE 4 Ws and H of MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

WHERE TO SET SIGHTS IN THE MARKET?

MEASURE OF MARKET DEMAND TARGET MARKET

THE 4 Ws and H of MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

WHERE TO SET SIGHTS IN THE MARKET?

MEASURE OF MARKET DEMAND PENETRATED MARKET

THE 4 Ws and H of MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

DEMAND MEASUREMENT CONCEPTS

COMPANY DEMAND

MARKET DEMAND

COMPANY SALES POTENTIAL

MARKET AND COMPANY SALES FORECAST

THE 4 Ws and H of MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

ESTIMATING FUTURE AND CURRENT DEMAND

CURRENT DEMAND and FUTURE DEMAND

THE 4 Ws and H of MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

ESTIMATING FUTURE AND CURRENT DEMAND

ESTIMATING CURRENT DEMAND

THE 4 Ws and H of MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEMAND FORECASTING

ESTIMATING FUTURE AND CURRENT DEMAND

ESTIMATING CURRENT DEMAND

TOTAL Total Market MARKET Potential POTENTIAL

Area Market Potential

Industry Sales

Market Shares

Thank You!

MARIA TERESA JUSON MBA 636