Basics of Hypothesis Testing

Chapter 9:
Basics of Hypothesis Testing

May 1, 2015
In Chapter 9:
9.1 Null and Alternative Hypotheses
9.2 Test Statistic
9.3 P-Value
9.4 Significance Level
9.5 One-Sample z Test
9.6 Power and Sample Size
Terms Introduce in Prior Chapter

Population all possible values
Sample a portion of the population
Statistical inference generalizing from a
sample to a population with calculated degree
of certainty
Two forms of statistical inference
Hypothesis testing
Estimation
Parameter a characteristic of population, e.g.,
population mean
Statistic calculated from data in the sample, e.g.,
sample mean ( x )
Distinctions Between Parameters

and Statistics (Chapter 8 review)
Parameters
Statistics
Source
Population
Sample
Notation
Greek (e.g., ) Roman (e.g., xbar)
Vary
No
Yes
Calculated
No
Yes
Sampling Distributions of a Mean

(Introduced in Ch 8)
The sampling distributions of a mean
(SDM) describes the behavior of a
sampling mean
x ~ N , SE x
where SE x
n
Hypothesis Testing
Is also called significance testing

Tests a claim about a parameter using
evidence (data in a sample
The technique is introduced by
considering a one-sample z test
The procedure is broken into four steps
Each element of the procedure must be
understood
Hypothesis Testing Steps

A. Null and alternative hypotheses
B. Test statistic
C. P-value and interpretation
D. Significance level (optional)
9.1 Null and Alternative

Hypotheses
Convert the research question to null and
alternative hypotheses
The null hypothesis (H0) is a claim of no
difference in the population
The alternative hypothesis (Ha) claims
H0 is false
Collect data and seek evidence against H0
as a way of bolstering Ha (deduction)
Illustrative Example: Body Weight

The problem: In the 1970s, 2029 year
old men in the U.S. had a mean body
weight of 170 pounds. Standard deviation
was 40 pounds. We test whether mean
body weight in the population now differs.
Null hypothesis H0: = 170 (no
difference)
The alternative hypothesis can be either

Ha: > 170 (one-sided test) or
Ha: 170 (two-sided test)
9.2 Test Statistic

This is an example of a one-sample test of a
mean when is known. Use this statistic to
test the problem:
z stat
x 0
SE x
where 0 population mean assuming H 0 is true
and SE x
n
Illustrative Example: z statistic

For the illustrative example, 0 = 170
We know = 40
Take an SRS of n = 64. Therefore
SE x
40
64
If we found a sample mean of 173, then

z stat
x 0 173 170
0.60
SE x
5
Illustrative Example: z statistic

If we found a sample mean of 185, then
zstat
x 0 185 170
3.00
SE x
5
Reasoning Behinzstat
Sampling distribution of xbar

under H0: = 170 for n = 64
x ~ N 170,5
9.3 P-value
The P-value answer the question: What is the
probability of the observed test statistic or one
more extreme when H0 is true?
This corresponds to the AUC in the tail of the
Standard Normal distribution beyond the zstat.
Convert z statistics to P-value :
For Ha: > 0 P = Pr(Z > zstat) = right-tail beyond zstat
For Ha: < 0 P = Pr(Z < zstat) = left tail beyond zstat
For Ha: 0 P = 2 one-tailed P-value
Use Table B or software to find these

probabilities (next two slides).
One-sided P-value for zstat of 0.6
One-sided P-value for zstat of 3.0
Two-Sided P-Value
One-sided Ha
AUC in tail
beyond zstat
Two-sided Ha
consider potential
deviations in both
directions
double the onesided P-value
Examples: If one-sided P
= 0.0010, then two-sided
P = 2 0.0010 = 0.0020.
If one-sided P = 0.2743,
then two-sided P = 2
0.2743 = 0.5486.
Interpretation
P-value answer the question: What is the
probability of the observed test statistic
when H0 is true?
Thus, smaller and smaller P-values
provide stronger and stronger evidence
against H0
Small P-value strong evidence
Interpretation
Conventions*
P > 0.10 non-significant evidence against H0
0.05 < P 0.10 marginally significant evidence
0.01 < P 0.05 significant evidence against H0
P 0.01 highly significant evidence against H0
Examples
P =.27 non-significant evidence against H0
P =.01 highly significant evidence against H0
* It is unwise to draw firm borders for significance
-Level (Used in some situations)

Let probability of erroneously rejecting H0
Set threshold (e.g., let = .10, .05, or
whatever)
Reject H0 when P
Retain H0 when P >
Example: Set = .10. Find P = 0.27 retain H0
Example: Set = .01. Find P = .001 reject H0
(Summary) One-Sample z Test

A. Hypothesis statements
H0: = 0 vs.
Ha: 0 (two-sided) or
Ha: < 0 (left-sided) or
Ha: > 0 (right-sided)
B. Test statistic
z stat
x 0
where SE x
SE x
n
C. P-value: convert zstat to P value

D. Significance statement (usually not necessary)
9.5 Conditions for z test

known (not from data)
Population approximately Normal or
large sample (central limit theorem)
SRS (or facsimile)
Data valid
The Lake Wobegon Example

where all the children are above average
Let X represent Weschler Adult Intelligence

scores (WAIS)
Typically, X ~ N(100, 15)
Take SRS of n = 9 from Lake Wobegon
population
Data {116, 128, 125, 119, 89, 99, 105,
116, 118}
Calculate: x-bar = 112.8
Does sample mean provide strong evidence
that population mean > 100?
Example: Lake Wobegon

A. Hypotheses:
H0: = 100 versus
Ha: > 100 (one-sided)
Ha: 100 (two-sided)
B. Test statistic:
z stat
15
SE x
5
n
9
x 0 112 .8 100
2.56
SE x
5
C. P-value: P = Pr(Z 2.56) = 0.0052
P =.0052 it is unlikely the sample came from this

null distribution strong evidence against H0
Two-Sided P-value: Lake Wobegon

Ha: 100
Considers random
deviations up and
down from 0 tails
above and below zstat
Thus, two-sided P
= 2 0.0052
= 0.0104
9.6 Power and Sample Size

Two types of decision errors:
Type I error = erroneous rejection of true H0
Type II error = erroneous retention of false
H0
Truth
H0 true
H0 false
Decision
Retain H0
Correct
retention
Type II error
Reject H0
Type I error
Correct rejection
probability of a Type I error
Probability of a Type II error
Power
probability of a Type II error
= Pr(retain H0 | H0 false)
(the | is read as given)
1 Power probability of avoiding a
Type II error
1 = Pr(reject H0 | H0 false)
Power of a z test
1 z1
2
| 0 a | n
where
(z) represent the cumulative probability
of Standard Normal Z
0 represent the population mean under
the null hypothesis
a represents the population mean under
the alternative hypothesis
Calculating Power: Example

A study of n = 16 retains H0: = 170 at = 0.05
(two-sided); is 40. What was the power of tests
conditions to identify a population mean of 190?
| 0 a | n
1 z1
|
170
190
|
16
1.96
40
0.04
0.5160
Reasoning Behind Power

Competing sampling distributions
Top curve (next page) assumes H0 is true
Bottom curve assumes Ha is true
is set to 0.05 (two-sided)
We will reject H0 when a sample mean exceeds
189.6 (right tail, top curve)
The probability of getting a value greater than
189.6 on the bottom curve is 0.5160,
corresponding to the power of the test
Sample Size Requirements

Sample size for one-sample z test:
z1 z1
2
where
1 desired power
desired significance level (two-sided)
population standard deviation
= 0 a the difference worth detecting
Example: Sample Size

Requirement
How large a sample is needed for a one-sample z
test with 90% power and = 0.05 (two-tailed)
when = 40? Let H0: = 170 and Ha: = 190
(thus, = 0 a = 170 190 = 20)
2
z1 z1
40 (1.28 1.96)
20
Round up to 42 to ensure adequate power.
41.99
Illustration: conditions
for 90% power.

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Chapter 9:

Basics of Hypothesis Testing

Terms Introduce in Prior Chapter

Distinctions Between Parameters

Greek (e.g., ) Roman (e.g., xbar)

Sampling Distributions of a Mean

Is also called significance testing

Hypothesis Testing Steps

9.1 Null and Alternative

Illustrative Example: Body Weight

The alternative hypothesis can be either

9.2 Test Statistic

where 0 population mean assuming H 0 is true

Illustrative Example: z statistic

If we found a sample mean of 173, then

Illustrative Example: z statistic

Sampling distribution of xbar

Use Table B or software to find these

One-sided P-value for zstat of 0.6

One-sided P-value for zstat of 3.0

-Level (Used in some situations)

(Summary) One-Sample z Test

C. P-value: convert zstat to P value

9.5 Conditions for z test

The Lake Wobegon Example

Let X represent Weschler Adult Intelligence

Example: Lake Wobegon

C. P-value: P = Pr(Z 2.56) = 0.0052

P =.0052 it is unlikely the sample came from this

Two-Sided P-value: Lake Wobegon

9.6 Power and Sample Size

Calculating Power: Example

Reasoning Behind Power

Sample Size Requirements

Example: Sample Size

Round up to 42 to ensure adequate power.

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