Pharma Sales Forecasting

SALES FORECASTING
HARSHAL
KOTHARI
Sales forecasting is an important

assessment tool that helps to
Regularly take the pulse of your
company get tips on effective
sales forecasting with helps
form a professional speaker
author and business consultant
who has been a real estate
broker , professional insurance
salesperson and financial
planner.
VIDEO
Real-Time Demand Drives Forecasting.mp4
Popular Method of Sales

Forecasting
Jury of Executive opinion Method
Delphi Method
The sales force Estimation Method
Time series Analysis Method
Jury of Executive opinion

There are two steps in this method
High ranking executives estimate
probable
sales
An average estimate is calculated
In the jury of executive opinion method of sales
forecasting, appropriate managers within the
organization assemble to discuss their opinions
on what will happen to sales in the future.
This method combines managerial experience
with statistical knowledge.
Companies using the jury of executive

opinion method do so for one or more of
four
reason:
This is a quick and easy way to turn out a forecast.

This is a way to pool the experience and
judgement of well informed people.
This may be the only feasible approach if the
company is so young that it has not yet
accumulated the experience to use other
forecasting methods.
This method may be used when adequate sales
and market statistic are missing ,or when these
figure have not yet been put into the form required
for more sophisticated forecasting methods.
EXAMPLE:
Mainframe computer forecasting is done by
conducting a series of meetings between the

two mainframe analysts at a company, the
Service director, and a Research Operations
analyst. Typically, three or four meetings are
required in order to arrive at a forecast
consensus. In between meetings, the
forecasts are examined by colleagues, both
domestic and abroad, for feedback and
reaction.
Delphi Method
Several years ago researchers at the Rand corporation
developed a technique for predicting the future that is

called Delphi technique
Delphi method also gathers evaluates and summarizes
expert opinions as the basis for a forecast but the

procedure is more formal than that for the jury of executive
opinion method
Three Types of Participants

Decision Makers
Staff
Respondents
Steps in the Delphi method

Steps 1- Various Experts are asked to answer, independently
and in writing, a series of questions about the future of

sales or whatever other area is being forecasted.
STEP 2 A summary of all the answers is then prepared. No
expert knows, how any other expert answered the questions.
STEP 3 Copies of summary are given to the
individual experts with the request that they modify

their original answers if they think it necessary.
STEP 4 Another summary is made of these
modifications, and copies again are distributed to the

experts. This time, however, expert opinions that
deviate significantly from the norm must be justified
in writing.
STEP 5 A third summary is made of the opinions and

justifications, and copies are once again distributed
to the experts. Justification in writing for all answers
is now required.
STEP 6 The forecast is generated from all of the
opinions and justifications that arise from step 5.
Sales Force Estimation

Method
The Sales Force Method is a sales forecasting
technique that predicts future sales by

analyzing the opinions of sales people as a
group
A sales forecast is an estimate of sales in dollars or
physical unit in future period under a particular marketing

program and assume set of economic and other factor out
side the unit for which the forecast is made.
The Sales Force Method is a sales forecasting technique
that predicts future sales by

analyzing the opinions of sales people as
a group.
Salespeople continually interact with customers,
and from this interaction they usually
develop a knack for predicting
future sales.
me Series analysis Method

Not greatly different in principle from the simple projection of past
sales is time series analysis a statistical procedure for studying
historical sales data
This procedure involves isolating and measuring four chief types of
sales variations long term trends cyclical changes seasonal variations
and irregular fluctuations
One drawback of time series analysis is that it is difficult to call the
turns
Time Series analysis

involves
The time series analysis
method Predicts the future sales
by analyzing
The historical relationship between sales And time.
Many businesses prepare their sales forecast on the basis of past
sales.
Time series analysis involves breaking past sales down into four
components
(1)The trend: Are sales growing, flat or in decline.
(2) Seasonal or cyclical factors. Sales are affected by swings in general
economic activity (e.g. increases in the disposable income of
consumers may lead to increase in sales for products in a particular
industry). Seasonal and cyclical factors occur in a regular pattern
(3) Erratic events; these include strikes, fads, war scares and other
disturbances to the market which need to be isolated from past sales
data in order to be able to identify the more normal pattern of sales
(4) Responses: the results of particular measures that have been taken
to increase sales (e.g. a major new advertising campaign).
Reference
For a good of this see R. B. Miller and D .W
Wichern, intermediate Businees Statistics

P. E. Green and D.S. Tull, Research for
marketing decisions 4th prentice hall Page no
508-10
S.K. Mullick and D.D. Smith, how to
Choose the Right Forecasting Technique
Harvard Business Review 49 Page no 55-64
THANK YOU

Pharma Sales Forecasting

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What are the different methods of sales forecasting discussed?

What are the different methods of sales forecasting discussed?

What are the steps involved in the Delphi method?

What are the steps involved in the Delphi method?

SALES FORECASTING

Sales forecasting is an important

Real-Time Demand Drives Forecasting.mp4

Popular Method of Sales

Jury of Executive opinion

Companies using the jury of executive

This is a quick and easy way to turn out a forecast.

conducting a series of meetings between the

developed a technique for predicting the future that is

expert opinions as the basis for a forecast but the

Three Types of Participants

Steps in the Delphi method

and in writing, a series of questions about the future of

expert knows, how any other expert answered the questions.

STEP 3 Copies of summary are given to the

individual experts with the request that they modify

modifications, and copies again are distributed to the

STEP 5 A third summary is made of the opinions and

opinions and justifications that arise from step 5.

Sales Force Estimation

technique that predicts future sales by

A sales forecast is an estimate of sales in dollars or

physical unit in future period under a particular marketing

The Sales Force Method is a sales forecasting technique

that predicts future sales by

me Series analysis Method

Time Series analysis

Many businesses prepare their sales forecast on the basis of past

Wichern, intermediate Businees Statistics

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