Risk Management: Lathiefa Rusli Faris Yulianto

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Risk Management

Lathiefa Rusli
Faris Yulianto
Risk Management

1. Quantifying Risk
2. Allocating Risk
3. Managing Risk
Quantifying Risk – Bond price risk

Duration is a measurement of a fixed income


security’s price sensitivity to a given yield.

Convexity means that prices fall when yields


rise and that prices rise when yields fall by
modified duration.
Quantifying Risk – Equity price risk
Beta is a statistical measure of the expected
increase in value of one variable for a one-
unit increase in the value of another variabl
e. (Requires min two series data)
It can give us a measure of a bond’s price s
ensitivity in relation to another series.

Correlation coefficient : (relations)


1. Positive correlation coefficient
2. Negative correlation coefficient
3. Zero correlation coefficient
Cost of Carry (SRT)

It is difference between a spot and forward


duration or convexity calculation. It deals
with a security that has a forward settlemen
tdate instead of an immediate one.

The condition of duration’s contribution will


depend on whether carry is positive or
negative.
R in SRT could not have some risk (risk free) because
we do not want to confuse the risks embedded within
the underlying spot with the risks associated with the
underlying spot’s cost of carry.
Variables that are Required in Solving Option
Value

1. Price of the underlying security


2. The risk free rate
3. Time to expiration
4. Volatility
5. The strike price
Quantifying Risk – Credit risk

Credit risk is quantified as the credit premiums


that investors assign to the securities they buy
and sell. It is mostly fluid risk and clearly a con
sideration that will be unique in definition and
relevance to the investor considering it.
Allocating Risk

It talks on how risk is allocated in the context of


products, cash flows, and credit. Risk can someh
ow be compartmentalized and then doled out t
he on the basis of some established criteria.
Product Interrelationship

Bond credit spreads tend to narrow whe


n yield levels are declining. In general, w
hen the equity market is in a rallying mo
de, the bond market is too.
Cash Flow Interrelationship

Payoff profile is a simple illustration of h


ow the return of a particular cash flow ty
pe increases or decreases as its prices ris
es or falls.
Credit risk always exist in its own right, and whi
le it can take on a rather explicit shape in the f
orm of different market products, it is also can
be transformed by an issuer’s particular choice
of cash flows.

While investments with greater credit risks ofte


n provide greater returns as compensation for
that added risk, riskier investment also can me
an poor performance
Managing Risk

Managing risk can be qualified and allocated


on a day to day basis. Through the investor, m
anaging risk begins with one fundamental con
sideration. It is about probability. When a prob
ability assessment is made, decision inevitably
follow.
Managing of risk consists of :
1. Probability
2. Time
3. Probability

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