Hierarchy of Epidemiologic Study Design: Tower & Spector, 2007

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Hierarchy of Epidemiologic Study Design

Tower & Spector, 2007 (www)


Epidemiologic Study Designs

Grimes & Schulz, 2002 (www)


Epidemiologic Study Designs

Grimes & Schulz, 2002 (www)


Case-Control Studies

Exposed
Not
Cases
exposed
Population
Exposed Controls
Not
exposed
Case-Control Studies

Schulz & Grimes, 2002 (www) (PDF)


Cause-and-Effect
Relationship

Grimes & Schulz, 2002 (www) (PDF)


Epidemiologic Association / Impact Measures

Relative Risk (Risk Ratio) (RR)

Odds Ratio (OR)

Attributable Risk (AR)

Relative Risk Reduction (RRR)

Measures of test accuracy:

Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value


(PPV, NPV)
Advantages of Case-Control Studies

- Cheap, easy and quick studies


- Multiple exposures can be examined
- Rare diseases and diseases with long latency
can be studied
- Suitable when randomization is unethical
(alcohol and pregnancy outcome)
Disadvantages of Case-Control Studies

- Case and control selection troublesome


- Subject to bias (selection, recall, misclassification)
- Direct incidence estimation is not possible
- Temporal relationship is not clear
- Multiple outcomes cannot be studied
- If the incidence of exposure is high, it is difficult to show the
difference between cases and controls
- Not easy to estimate attributable fraction
- Reverse causation is a problem in interpretation - especially
in molecular epidemiology studies
Hierarchy of Epidemiologic Study Design

Tower & Spector, 2007 (www)


Epidemiologic Study Designs

Grimes & Schulz, 2002 (www)


Epidemiologic Study Designs

Grimes & Schulz, 2002 (www)


Cohort Studies

Disease
People Exposed No disease
Population without
disease Not Disease
exposed
No disease
Cohort Studies

Grimes & Schulz, 2002 (www) (PDF)


Examples of Cohort Studies

* Framingham Heart Study (www)


* NHANES Studies (www)
* MACS (www)
* Physicians' Health Study (www)
* Nurses' Health Study (www)
* ALSPAC (www)
COHORT
A Group of People which who share a
common characteristic or experience with in
a define time period e.g. Age, Occupation,
Exposure to a drug, Pregnancy, Insurance
etc.

Birth Cohort
Exposure Cohort
Marriage Cohort
Indications for Cohort Study
When There is good evidence of an Association
between exposure and disease, as derived from
clinical observation and supportive by descriptive
and case control studies
When exposure is rare but the incidence of disease
is high among exposed e.g. Special exposure
groups like those in industries

When attritions of study population can be


minimised e.g. Follow up is easy cohort is stable

When ample funds are available


Elements of Cohort Study

Selection of Study Subjects

Obtaining Data on exposure

Selection of Comparison Group

Follow up

Analysis
Analysis of Cohort Study

Relative Risk
Incidence of Disease (or Death) among Exposed
RR =
Incidence of Disease (or Death) among Non
Exposed
Attributable risk
Incidence of Disease rate among Exposed Incidence
of Disease rate among Non Exposed
X 100
Incidence of Disease rate among Exposed

Population Attributable Risk


Incidence of Disease in the total population Incidence
of Disease among those who were not Exposed
Presentation of cohort data:
Population at risk

Does HIV infection increase risk of developing TB


among a population of drug users?

Population Cases
(follow up 2 years)

HIV + 215 8
HIV - 289 1

Source: Selwyn et al., New York, 1989


EPIET (www)
Does HIV infection increase risk of developing TB
among drug users?

Population Incidence Relative


Exposure Cases
(f/u 2 years) (%) Risk

HIV + 215 8 3.7 11

HIV - 298 1 0.3

EPIET (www)
Advantages of Cohort Studies

- Can establish population-based incidence


- Accurate relative risk (risk ratio) estimation
- Can examine rare exposures (asbestos > lung cancer)
- Temporal relationship can be inferred (prospective design)
- Time-to-event analysis is possible
- Can be used where randomization is not possible
- Magnitude of a risk factor’s effect can be quantified
- Selection and information biases are decreased
- Multiple outcomes can be studied
(smoking > lung cancer, COPD, larynx cancer)
Disadvantages of Cohort Studies

- Lengthy and expensive


- May require very large samples
- Not suitable for rare diseases
- Not suitable for diseases with long-latency
- Unexpected environmental changes may influence the association
- Nonresponse, migration and loss-to-follow-up biases
- Sampling, ascertainment and observer biases are still possible
Hierarchy of Epidemiologic Study Design

Tower & Spector, 2007 (www)


Epidemiologic Study Designs

Grimes & Schulz, 2002 (www)


Experimental Studies

• Animal Studies

• Human Experiments

• Randomized Controlled Trials

• Non Randomized Controlled Trials


Steps in Conducting RCT
• Drawing up a Protocol
• Selecting Reference and Experimental Population
• Randomization
• Manipulation or Intervention
• Follow up
• Assessment of outcome
RCT, Bias and Blinding
Single Blind Double Blind Triple Blind
Types of RCT
• Clinical Trials
• Preventive Trials
• Risk Factor Trials
• Cessation Experiment
• Trial of Aetiological Agent
• Evaluation of Health Services

Types of Non Randomized Controlled Trials


Uncontrolled Natural Before and After
Trials Experiments Comparison

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