Waiting Lines and Queuing

Theory Models
 Introduction to Queuing Theory
 It is estimated that Americans spend a
total of 37 billion hours a year waiting in
lines.
 Places we wait in line...
- stores - post offices
- banks - traffic lights
- Restaurants - airports
Waiting lines do not always contain people...
- subassemblies in a manufacturing
plant
- electronic message on the Internet
 Queuing theory deals with the analysis
and management of waiting lines.
 Queuing System Examples

System Customers Servers

Grocery Store Shoppers Checkout Clerks
Port Ships Jetty
Toll Highway Vehicles Tollgate
Airport Circling Planes Runways
Bank People Tellers
 Queuing theory is the study of waiting lines
 It is one of the oldest and most widely used
quantitative analysis techniques
 Waiting lines are an everyday occurrence for
most people
 Queues form in business process as well
 The three basic components of a queuing
process are arrivals, service facilities, and the
actual waiting line
 Analytical models of waiting lines can help
managers evaluate the cost and effectiveness
of service systems
 Waiting Line Costs
 Most waiting line problems are focused on
finding the ideal level of service a firm should
provide
 In most cases, this service level is something
management can control
 When an organization does have control, they
often try to find the balance between two
extremes
 A large staff and many service facilities generally
results in high levels of service but have high
costs- e.g. Petrol Pump
 Waiting Line Costs
 Having the minimum number of service facilities
keeps service cost down but may result in
dissatisfied customers
 There is generally a trade-off between cost of
providing service and cost of waiting time
 Service facilities are evaluated on their total
expected cost which is the sum of service costs
and waiting costs
 Organizations typically want to find the service
level that minimizes the total expected cost
The facility cost
-Cost of Construction
-Cost of operation – labor, energy
-Cost of maintenance
-Other cost : Insurance, rental of space

Cost of waiting customers:

Lost time
Lost of goodwill
Lost sales etc.
Difficult to measure
 Waiting Line Costs
 Queuing costs and service level

Total Expected Cost

Cost of Providing Service

Cost

Cost of Waiting Time

* Service Level
Optimal
Service
Level
 Three Rivers Shipping Company
Example
 Three Rivers Shipping operates a docking facility
on the Ohio River
 An average of 5 ships arrive to unload their
cargos each shift
 Idle ships are expensive
 More staff can be hired to unload the ships, but
that is expensive as well
 Three Rivers Shipping Company wants to
determine the optimal number of teams of
stevedores to employ each shift to obtain the
minimum total expected cost
 Three Rivers Shipping Company
Example
 Three Rivers Shipping waiting line cost analysis
NUMBER OF TEAMS OF STEVEDORES
WORKING
1 2 3 4
(a) Average number of ships arriving 5 5 5 5
per shift
(b) Average time each ship waits to 7 4 3 2
be unloaded (hours)
(c) Total ship hours lost per shift 35 20 15 10
(a x b)
(d) Estimated cost per hour of idle $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000
ship time
(e) Value of ship’s lost time or $35,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000
waiting cost (c x d)
(f) Stevedore team salary or service $6,000 $12,000 $18,000 $24,000
cost
(g) Total expected cost (e + f) $41,000 $32,000 $33,000 $34,000
Optimal cost
 Characteristics of a Queuing System

 There are three parts to a queuing system

1. The arrivals or inputs to the system
(sometimes referred to as the calling
population)
population
2. The queue or waiting line itself
3. The service facility
 These components have their own
characteristics that must be examined
before mathematical models can be
developed
 Characteristics of a Queuing System

 Arrival Characteristics have three major

characteristics, size,
size pattern,
pattern and behavior
 Size of the calling population
 Can be either unlimited (essentially infinite)
infinite
or limited (finite)
finite
 Pattern of arrivals
 Can arrive according to a known pattern or
can arrive randomly
 Random arrivals generally follow a Poisson
distribution
 Characteristics of a Queuing System

 The Poisson distribution is

e   X
P( X )  for X  0, 1, 2, 3, 4,...
X!
where
P(X) = probability of X arrivals
X = number of arrivals per unit of time
 = average arrival rate
e = 2.7183
 Characteristics of a Queuing System

 If  = 2, we can find the values for X = 0, 1, and 2

e   X
P( X ) 
X!
e  2 20 0.1353(1)
P (0 )    0.1353  14%
0! 1
e  2 21 e  2 2 0.1353(2)
P (1)     0.2706  27%
1! 1 1
e  2 22 e  2 4 0.1353( 4 )
P (2 )     0.2706  27%
2! 2(1) 2
 Characteristics of a Queuing System

 Behavior of arrivals
 Normal queuing models assume customers
are patient and will wait in the queue until they
are served and do not switch lines
 Balking refers to customers who refuse to join
the queue
 Reneging customers enter the queue but
become impatient and leave without receiving
their service
 Jockeying customers switching between lines
 Characteristics of a Queuing System

 Waiting Line Characteristics

 Waiting lines can be either limited or
unlimited
 Queue discipline refers to the rule by
which customers in the line receive
service
 The most common rule is first-in, first-
out (FIFO/FCFS)
FIFO/FCFS Warehouse-LIFO
 Other rules are possible and may be
based on other important
characteristics
 Characteristics of a Queuing System

 Service Facility Characteristics

 Basic queuing system configurations
 Service systems are classified in terms of
the number of channels, or servers, and the
number of phases, or service stops
 A single-channel system with one server is
quite common
 Multichannel systems exist when multiple
servers are fed by one common waiting line
 In a single-phase system the customer
receives service form just one server
 If a customer has to go through more than
one server, it is a multiphase system
 Characteristics of a Queuing System

sic queuing system configurations

Queue

Service Departures
Arrivals Facility after Service

Single-Channel, Single-Phase System

Queue
Type 1 Type 2 Departures
Arrivals Service Service after
Facility Facility Service

Single-Channel, Multiphase System

 Characteristics of a Queuing System
 Four basic queuing system configurations

Service
Facility Departures
Queue
1

Service
Arrivals Facility after
2

Service
Facility Service
3

Multichannel, Single-Phase System

 Characteristics of a Queuing System
 Four basic queuing system configurations

Type 1 Type 2
Queue Service Service
Facility Facility
1 1 Departures
Arrivals after
Service
Type 1 Type 2
Service Service
Facility Facility
2 2

Multichannel, Multiphase System

 Characteristics of a Queuing System

 Service time distribution

 Service patterns can be either constant or
random
 Constant service times are often machine
controlled
 More often, service times are randomly
distributed according to a negative exponential
probability distribution
 Models are based on the assumption of
particular probability distributions
 Analysts should take care to ensure
observations fit the assumed distributions
when applying these models
 Identifying Models Using
Kendall Notation
 D. G. Kendall developed a notation for queuing
models that specifies the pattern of arrival, the
service time distribution, and the number of
channels
 It is of the form
Arrival Service time Number of service
distribution distribution channels open

 Specific letters are used to represent probability

distributions
M = Poisson distribution for arrival or exponential
distribution for service time
D = constant (deterministic) rate
G = general distribution with known mean and variance
 Identifying Models Using
Kendall Notation
 A single channel model with Poisson arrivals and
exponential service times would be represented
by
M/M/1
 If a second channel is added we would have
M/M/2
 A three channel system with Poisson arrivals and
constant service time would be
M/D/3
 A four channel system with Poisson arrivals and
normally distributed service times would be
M/G/4
Single-Channel Model, Poisson Arrivals,
Exponential Service Times (M/M/1)
 Assumptions of the model
 Arrivals are served on a FIFO basis
 No balking or reneging
 Arrivals are independent of each other but rate
is constant over time
 Arrivals follow a Poisson distribution
 Service times are variable and independent but
the average is known
 Service times follow a negative exponential
distribution
 Average service rate is greater than the average
arrival rate (Why ?)
Single-Channel Model, Poisson Arrivals,
Exponential Service Times (M/M/1)
 When these assumptions are met, we can
develop a series of equations that define the
queue’s operating characteristics

 Queuing Equations
 We let
 = mean number of arrivals per time period
 = mean number of people or items served
per time period
 The arrival rate and the service rate must be
for the same time period
Single-Channel Model, Poisson Arrivals,
Exponential Service Times (M/M/1)
1. The average number of customers or units in the
system, L 
L


2. The average time a customer spends in the

system, W
1
W 

3. The average number of customers in the queue, Lq
2
Lq 
(   )
Single-Channel Model, Poisson Arrivals,
Exponential Service Times (M/M/1)
4. The average time a customer spends waiting in
the queue, Wq

Wq 
(   )

5. The utilization factor for the system, , the

probability the service facility is being used



Single-Channel Model, Poisson Arrivals,
Exponential Service Times (M/M/1)
6. The percent idle time, P0, the probability no one is
in the system

P0  1 


7. The probability that the number of customers in

the system is greater than k, Pn>k
k 1

Pn k  

 Example:
 A mechanic can install mufflers at a rate of 3 per
hour
 Customers arrive at a rate of 2 per hour
 = 2 cars arriving per hour
 = 3 cars serviced per hour

 2 2
L    2 cars in the system
  32 1 on the average

1 1
W    1 hour that an average car
  32 spends in the system
 Arnold’s Muffler Shop Case

2 22 4
Lq     1.33 cars waiting in line
 (    ) 3(3  2) 3(1) on the average
 2
Wq   hour  40 minutes average
(   ) 3 waiting time per car
 2
    0.67  percentage of time
 3 mechanic is busy
 2
P0  1   1   0.33  probability that there
 3 are 0 cars in the system
 Arnold’s Muffler Shop Case
 Introducing costs into the model
 Arnold wants to do an economic analysis of
the queuing system and determine the waiting
cost and service cost
 The total service cost is

Total (Number of channels)

=
service cost x (Cost per channel)
Total
service cost = mCs
where
m = number of channels
Cs = service cost of each channel
 Arnold’s Muffler Shop Case
 Waiting cost when the cost is based on time in
the system
Total (Total time spent waiting by all
=
waiting cost arrivals) x (Cost of waiting)
(Number of arrivals) x
=
(Average wait per arrival)Cw
Total
waiting cost = (W)Cw
 If waiting time cost is based on time in the queue

Total
waiting cost = (Wq)Cw
 Arnold’s Muffler Shop Case

 So the total cost of the queuing system when

based on time in the system is

Total cost = Total service cost + Total waiting cost

Total cost = mCs + WCw

 And when based on time in the queue

Total cost = mCs + WqCw

 Arnold’s Muffler Shop Case
 Arnold estimates the cost of customer waiting
time in line is $10 per hour
Total daily
waiting cost = (8 hours)WqCw
= (8)(2)(2/3)($10) = $106.67
 Arnold has identified the mechanics wage $7 per
hour as the service cost
Total daily
service cost = (8 hours per day)mCs
= (8)(1)($7) = $56
 So the total cost of the system is
Total daily cost of
the queuing system = $106.67 + $56 = $162.67
 Arnold’s Muffler Shop Case
 Arnold is thinking about hiring a different
mechanic who can install mufflers at a faster rate
 The new operating characteristics would be
 = 2 cars arriving per hour
 = 4 cars serviced per hour

 2 2
L    1 car in the system
  42 2 on the average

1 1
W    1/2 hour that an average car
  42 spends in the system
 Arnold’s Muffler Shop Case

2 22 4
Lq     1/2 cars waiting in line
 (    ) 4( 4  2) 8(1) on the average
 1
Wq   hour  15 minutes average
(   ) 4 waiting time per car
 2
    0.5  percentage of time
 4 mechanic is busy
 2
P0  1   1   0 .5  probability that there
 4 are 0 cars in the system
 Arnold’s Muffler Shop Case
 The customer waiting cost is the same $10 per
hour
Total daily
waiting cost = (8 hours per day)WqCw
= (8)(2)(1/4)($10) = $40.00
 The new mechanic is more expensive at $9 per
hour
Total daily
service cost = (8 hours per day)mCs
= (8)(1)($9) = $72
 So the total cost of the system is
Total daily cost of
the queuing system = $40 + $72 = $112
 Arnold’s Muffler Shop Case

 The total time spent waiting for the 16 customers

per day was formerly
(16 cars per day) x (2/3 hour per car) = 10.67 hours
 It is now is now

(16 cars per day) x (1/4 hour per car) = 4 hours

 The total system costs are less with the new
mechanic resulting in a $50 per day savings
$162 – $112 = $50
 Enhancing the Queuing Environment

 Reducing waiting time is not the only way

to reduce waiting cost
 Reducing waiting cost (Cw) will also reduce
total waiting cost
 This might be less expensive to achieve
than reducing either W or Wq