Presentasi Company Valuation Method Project On PT. Sampoerna
Presentasi Company Valuation Method Project On PT. Sampoerna
Presentasi Company Valuation Method Project On PT. Sampoerna
Student
Brigitta Mayori Puteri
SLIDE 10 4
Company
Description
3
Indonesia has a large and diverse tobacco consumer market with
a significant percentage of adult smokers. Approximately 67%
of Indonesian men and 5% of Indonesian women are smokers OVERVIEW OF
(Indonesia contains a total population over 250 million people). TOBACCO
Raw materials are mostly sourced domestically and in INDUSTRY
combination with cheap labor it makes production costs
relatively low. As such, the price of a package of cigarettes in
Indonesia is cheap. This has also been the reason why
Indonesia's tobacco industry was not touched by the recent
global economic downturn.
PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk. (“Sampoerna”) is one of cigarette company in Indonesia that
becomes a significant part of Indonesia’s tobacco industry for more than a century since its
establishment in 1913, with Dji Sam Soe or known as the legendary “King of Kretek”.
5
BUSINESS
PROFILE For more than 10 years, Sampoerna has been the market leader in
Indonesia, with a 33.0% market share in the Indonesian cigarette
market in 2018. Sampoerna is a subsidiary of PT Philip Morris
Indonesia (“PMID”) and an affiliate of Philip Morris International Inc.
(“PMI”), a leading international tobacco company with global brand
Marlboro. The scope of activities of Sampoerna comprises of, among
others, manufacturing, trading and distributing cigarettes including
distribution of Marlboro, the leading international cigarette brand
manufactured by PMID.
Sampoerna’s experienced management team leverages global best
practices and world-class systems to oversee more than 25,000
permanent employees within Sampoerna and its subsidiaries. The
Company sells and distributes cigarettes through 114 locations of
zone branch offices, sales offices and distribution centers across
Indonesia.
SALES & 6
DISTRIBUTION
LOCATIONS HM
SAMPOERNA
7
COMPANY PRODUCTS
• Main business field: Tobacco Industry • Revenue: IDR 106,741 Trillion (FY 2018)
• Sector: Consumer goods industry • Net Income: IDR 13,538 Trillion (FY 2018)
• Sub Sector: Tobacco Manufacturers • Total Asset: IDR 46,602 Trillion (FY 2018)
• Total Equity: IDR 35,358 Trillion (FY 2018)
• Stock Exchange: Indonesia Stock Exchange
• Total Cash Dividend: 13,632,478,612,680
• Ticker Code: HMSP
• Authorized Capital (common stock): 157,500,000,000
• Permanent Employee: > 25,000 • Issued and Fully Paid-Up Capital (common stock):
• Employees of TPOS: 39,200 116,318,076,900
• Shareholders:
Name Type Amount Percentage
PT. Philip Morris Indonesia > 5% 107,594,221,125 92.5%
Public < 5% 8,723,855,775 7.5%
Treasury Stock Treasury Stock 0 0%
Johannes Budi Wardhana Direction 75.100 0%
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE COMPANY 9
10
Cash Flow
Forecasting
CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES FORECAST 13
Net Profits
16000000
If we relate the result with financial analysis
14000000
on previous chapter, especially on Return on
Net Profits (in Million of IDR) f(x) = 943363.5 x − 1889958875.5
R² = 0.79
Equity (ROE) and Return on Asset (ROA)
12000000
where one of the factor used is net profits, it
could be seen that the trend is fluctuated
10000000
8000000
where there will be a year where it
6000000
decreases. However in this forecast, the
4000000 trend is only increasing meaning net profits
2000000 will increase in the future. As the R-squared
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
is 0.7902, quite low, we cannot really trust
Year
the regression and result so much.
Depreciation
250000
f(x) = 24074.2 x − 48352066.3
R² = 0.95
From the increasing trend line
Depreciation (in Million of IDR)
200000
it can be concluded that the
150000 depreciation from operating
activities will increase in the
future, especially as the R-
100000
50000
squared is 0.9545 which is
closed to 1.
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Year
Year Depreciation
2015 163498
2016 175089
2017 200305
2018 235340
2019 253743.5
2020 277817.7
2021 301891.9
*forecast is made by replacing x in regression equation to the forecasting year
*2015-2018: actual data; 2019-2021: forecast result
WORKING CAPITAL FORECAST 16
Working Capital
31000000
f(x) = 1178485 x − 2349109367
R² = 0.95 To find the working capital, current asset of the
29000000
year should be subtracted with the current
27000000
liabilities of the year. After that, forecast can be
conducted. The current asset and current
(in Million of IDR)
25000000
Working Capital
17000000
in the future, especially as the R-squared is 0.95
15000000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
which is closed to 1.
Year
FCFE is a measure of how much FCFE = net profit + depreciation - increase in working
cash is available to the equity capital - investment expenses - repayment of debt
shareholders of a company after all + incurring new loans
expenses, reinvestment, and debt
are paid. FCFE is a measure of New loans and investment expenses are taken out as the new
equity capital usage (Kenton, 2019). owner will decide unless it is already underway. The loans will
It has cash flows attribute to be repaid only up to the amount of the old loan. Here, it is
owners like shareholders or entities assumed that the loan along with investment expenses will be
provi-ding equity. FCFE is chosen as at the same level as at the beginning.
it is a change in the capital
structure. FCFE = net profit + depreciation - increase in working capital
FINAL FORECAST OF CASH FLOW 18
Capital Cost
Evaluation
20
Growth rate
2.5%
As it can be seen from the final forecast of Cash Flow from operating activities, the rate of growth is
0.156 or 15.6%. However, the rate is not feasible if we want to calculate valuation to the infinity, so
it is assumed that the growth rate will be 2.5% as a result this is more achievable
compared to 15.6%. It is not too low as well as the tobacco industry usually is more stable than the
rest of the other industry eventhough there is pandemic or other factor, as Indonesian consumers
particularly will still consume tobacco/cigarette.
SLIDE 10 9
Equity
Evaluation
EQUITY VALUATION 25
The value of equity of PT. HM Sampoerna Tbk will be estimated by relying on the Discounted Cash
Flow (DCF) as the value of an enterprise in the income approach is identical to the value of equity
meaning that the value of the current future cash flows attributable to the owners. Moreover the
forecasted period of time will be three years.
VALUATION WITH STOCK PRICES 27
COMPARATION OF METHODS 28
In following days for several months or year ahead, the stock probably lies down on that range of price until the economy
and the company is healthy again. Therefore, the valuation with stock prices has higher price than the equity valuation as
it estimates the best scenario of the company where the stocks are in good shape and the current mental of the buyers
are in its best shape to buy more while equity valuation might predicts the following years ahead
IN CONCLUSION 29
This is a bad sign for the company and the company should
do efforts to regain back its condition for the investors.
SLIDE 10
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