L3. Deductive Inductive Arguments
L3. Deductive Inductive Arguments
L3. Deductive Inductive Arguments
Arguments
Compare
Example 1: Example 2:
P1) If you take Critical Thinking this P1) If you take Critical Thinking,
term, you don’t have to take it next you will most likely be good at
term. creating arguments.
P2) You did take Critical Thinking this P2) You have taken Critical
term. Thinking.
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C) Therefore, you don’t have to take C) Therefore, you are good at
Critical Thinking next term. creating arguments.
The better the evidence is for the conclusion, the stronger the
inductive argument is.
Inductive Arguments
Example:
P1) John is a Lingnan student and has brown hair.
P2) Jane is a Lingnan student and has brown hair.
P3) Dennis is a Lingnan student and has brown hair.
(…. we could give more premises with more evidence)
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C) Therefore, all Lingnan students have brown hair.
You bought a Mark 6 lottery ticket, the chance of winning is 1 in 14 million. Therefore, you will
win!
Inductively bad. The exact opposite of the conclusion is more likely. You will probably lose.
You beat your friend in 6/10 of the last basketball games. Therefore, you will win the next one.
Inductively weak. You are still the favourite, but past experience tells us the probability is just
0.6 in your favour (i.e. 60% likely)
You beat your friend in 9/10 of the last basketball games. Therefore, you will win the next one.
Inductively strong. This suggests that you are 90% likely to win.
Inductive Arguments
CHARACTERISTIC TWO: NOT Truth Preserving.
The conclusion of an inductive argument can be false even if
the premises are true. (Recall: NOT-Truth preserving.)
This is because even when the premises are true they only
make the conclusion probable; they do not guarantee it.
For example, from the fact alone that the sun has risen every
day of our lives (true), we cannot say that it will definitely rise
tomorrow (even though it is highly likely).
Inductive Arguments
Robbery Example
P1) Every day for the last year the swimming pool has had water in it.
C) Therefore, tomorrow the swimming pool will have water in it.
What if we add the premise: “P2: The is likely to be emptied for cleaning
tomorrow.”?
This turns a strong inductive argument into a weak inductive
argument.
Exercise: Add a premise to make these
arguments (i) weaker and (ii) stronger.
1. 3.
P1) Every operation the surgeon has P1) The sun has risen everyday in the
performed so far has been successful. past.
P2) Tomorrow I will have an P2) The laws of physics aren’t going to
operation by the same surgeon. change.
C) Thus, my operation will be C) Thus, the sun will rise tomorrow.
successful.
2. 4.
P1) The dog has never bitten me in P1) I drink alcohol every night before I
the past. drive home.
C) Thus, the dog will not bite me P2) I haven’t crashed when driving home
today. before.
C) Thus, I won’t crash when I drink
alcohol and drive home tonight.
Inductive Arguments
Notice: It might be true that John committed the robbery, but that
information is not included in the premises alone. It is something
we infer from the premises.
(This will contrast with a point about deductive arguments later…)
Deductive Arguments
WTF?!
Deductive Arguments
P1) If I am at my computer, I am on Facebook.
P2) I am at my computer.
C) Therefore, I am on Facebook.
IS THIS ARGUMENT VALID AND IS IT SOUND?
VALIDITY: SOUNDNESS:
Imagine that the premises are true. Ask yourself: Are the premises
Would the conclusion then also be really true?
true?
NO! (E.g. P2 is false, I am not at my
YES! (The truth is preserved!) computer right now-so, soundness
depends on the way the world really
is.)
Exercise: Validity and Soundness (check the facts online!)
1. 3.
P1) Napoleon was born in Corsica or P1) I’ve been bowling every year for my
he was born in Hong Kong. birthday.
P2) Napoleon was not born in Hong C) Thus, I’m going to go bowling again
Kong. this year for my birthday.
C) Thus, Napoleon was born in INVALID & UNSOUND (perhaps
Corsica. inductively strong!)
VALID & SOUND
4.
2. P1) Chris has a car and a helicopter.
P1) When I go for a run, I am tired. P2) Chris has a yacht.
P2) I am tired. C) Thus, Chris has a yacht and a car.
C) So, I went for a run. VALID BUT UNSOUND (I don’t have
INVALID & UNSOUND any of those things.)
Deductive Arguments
CHARACTERISTIC TWO: TRUTH PRESERVING
The conclusion of a deductive argument cannot be false if the
premises are true (unlike an inductive argument).
C2 C2
Can have true premises and a When valid, the conclusion
false conclusion. cannot be false if the
premises are true.
Comparing Inductive and Deductive
Arguments
Inductive Arguments Deductive Arguments
C3 C3
Can be changed from strong to Additional premises cannot
weak (or weak to strong) by change a valid argument to an
adding premises. invalid argument.
C4 C4
The information in the The information provided by
conclusion goes beyond that the conclusion is already
contained in the premises. contained in the premises.
Exercise