Basic Mathematics

Achinta Kr. Sarmah and Rohit Joshi, IIM Shillong

 Probability
• Important in inferential statistics, a branch of
statistics that relies on sample information to
make decisions about a population.
• Used to make decisions in the face of
uncertainty.
 Terminology
• Random experiment : is a
process or activity which
produces a number of possible
outcomes. The outcomes which
result cannot be predicted with
absolute certainty.
• Example 1: Flip two coins and
observe the possible outcomes of
heads and tails
 Examples
2. Select two marbles without
replacement from a bag containing 1
white, 1 red and 2 green marbles.

3. Roll two die and observe the sum of

the points on the top faces of each die.

All of the above are considered

experiments.
 Terminology
• Sample space: is a list of all possible outcomes of
the experiment. The outcomes must be mutually
exclusive and exhaustive. Mutually exclusive means
they are distinct and non-overlapping. Exhaustive
means complete.
• Event: is a subset of the sample space. An event can
be classified as a simple event or compound event.
Select a card from an ordinary deck of playing cards (no jokers)
The sample space would consist of the 52 cards, 13 of each suit.
We have 13 clubs, 13 spades, 13 hearts and 13 diamonds.

A simple event: the selected card is the two of clubs. A compound

event is the selected card is red (there are 26 red cards and so there
are 26 simple events comprising the compound event)

Select a driver randomly from all drivers in the age category of 18-
25. (Identify the sample space, give an example of a simple event
and a compound event)
• Roll two dice.
• Describe the sample space of this event.

• You can use a tree diagram to

determine the sample space of this
experiment. There are six outcomes
on the first die {1,2,3,4,5,6} and
those outcomes are represented by
six branches of the tree starting
from the “tree trunk”. For each of
these six outcomes, there are six
outcomes, represented by the brown
branches. By the fundamental
counting principle, there are 6*6=36
outcomes. They are listed on the
next slide.
 Sample space of all possible outcomes
when two dice are tossed.
(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5) (1,6)
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6)
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6)
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6)
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)
Quite a tedious project !!
 Probability of an event
• Definition: sum of the probabilities of the simple events that constitute the
event. The theoretical probability of an event is defined as the number of
ways the event can occur divided by the number of events of the sample
space. Using mathematical notation, we have

n( E )
• P(E) = n(E) is the number of ways the event
n( S )
• can occur and n(S) represents the total number of events in the sample
space.
 Physical Significance

A quiz contains a multiple-choice question with five possible

answers, only one of which is correct. A student plans to
guess the answer.
a) What is sample space?
b) Assign probabilities to the simple events
c) Probability student guesses the wrong answer
d) Probability student guesses the correct answer.
 Three approaches to assigning
probabilities

1. Classical approach. This type of probability relies upon

mathematical laws. Assumes all simple events are equally
likely.
 Probability of an event E = p(E) = (number of favorable
outcomes of E)/(number of total outcomes in the sample
space) This approach is also called theoretical probability.
The example of finding the probability of a sum of seven
when two dice are tossed is an example of the classical
approach.
Example of classical probability
 Example: Toss two coins. Find the probability of at least one head
appearing.
 Solution: At least one head is interpreted as one head or two heads.
 Step 1: Find the sample space:{ HH, HT, TH, TT} There are four
possible outcomes.
 Step 2: How many outcomes of the event “at least one head” Answer: 3
: { HH, HT, TH}

 Step 3: Use PE)=

n( E ) = ¾ = 0.75 = 75%
n( S )
 Relative Frequency
Also called Empirical probability.
 Relies upon the long run relative frequency of an event. For
example, out of the last 1000 statistics students, 15 % of
the students received an A. Thus, the empirical probability
that a student receives an A is 0.15.
 Example 2: Batting average of a major league ball player
can be interpreted as the probability that he gets a hit on a
given at bat.
 Subjective Approach
1. Classical approach not reasonable
2. No history of outcomes.
Subjective approach: The degree of belief we hold in the
occurrence of an event. Example in sports: Probability that
San Antonio Spurs will win the NBA title.
 Example 2: Probability of a nuclear meltdown in a certain
reactor.
Example
 The manager of a records store has kept track of the
number of CD’s sold of a particular type per day. On the
basis of this information, the manager produced the
following list of the number of daily sales:
Number of CDs Probability
0 0.08
1 0.17
2 0.26
3 0.21
4 0.18
5 0.10
Example continued
1. define the experiment as the number of CD’s sold
tomorrow. Define the sample space
2. Prob( number of CD’s sold > 3)
3. Prob of selling five CD’s
4. Prob that number of CD’s sold is between 1 and 5?
5. probability of selling 6 CD’s
Review Question 1

If you toss a die, what’s the probability that you

roll a 3 or less?

a. 1/6
b. 1/3
c. 1/2
d. 5/6
e. 1.0
Review Question 2

Two dice are rolled and the sum of the face

values is six? What is the probability that at
least one of the dice came up a 3?

a. 1/5
b. 2/3
c. 1/2
d. 5/6
e. 1.0
Review Question 2

Two dice are rolled and the sum of the face

values is six. What is the probability that at least
one of the dice came up a 3?

a. 1/5 How can you get a 6 on two dice?

b. 2/3 1-5, 5-1, 2-4, 4-2, 3-3
c. 1/2 One of these five has a 3.
d. 5/6 1/5
e. 1.0
 Review Question

Example:
There are 5 red chips, 4 blue chips, and 6 white chips in a basket.
Find the probability of randomly selecting a chip that is not blue.

4
P (selecting a blue chip)   0.267
15
4 11
P (not selecting a blue chip) 1    0.733
15 15
 Conditional Probability
A conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring,
given that another event has already occurred.

P (B |A) “Probability of B, given A”

Example:
There are 5 red chip, 4 blue chips, and 6 white chips in a basket.
Two chips are randomly selected. Find the probability that the
second chip is red given that the first chip is blue. (Assume that
the first chip is not replaced.)

Because the first chip is selected and not replaced, there are
only 14 chips remaining.
5
P (selecting a red chip|first chip is blue)   0.357
14
 Conditional Probability
Example:
100 college students were surveyed and asked how many hours a week
they spent studying. The results are in the table below. Find the
probability that a student spends more than 10 hours studying given
that the student is a male.

The sample space consists of the 49 male students. Of these 49,

16 spend more than 10 hours a week studying.
16
P (more than 10 hours|male)   0.327
49
 Independent Events
Two events are independent if the occurrence of one of the events
does not affect the probability of the other event. Two events A
and B are independent if
P (B |A) = P (B) or if P (A |B) = P (A).
Events that are not independent are dependent.
Example:
Decide if the events are independent or dependent.
Selecting a diamond from a standard deck of cards
(A), putting it back in the deck, and then selecting a 
spade from the deck (B). 
13 1 13 1 The occurrence of A does not
P (B A )   a n d P (B )   . affect the probability of B, so the
52 4 52 4
events are independent.
 Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive if they cannot
occur at the same time.

A and B

A
B A B

A and B are mutually A and B are not mutually

exclusive. exclusive.
 Mutually Exclusive Events
Example:
Decide if the two events are mutually exclusive.

Event A: Roll a number less than 3 on a die. Event B: Roll

a 4 on a die.

A B
1
4
2

These events cannot happen at the same time, so the events

are mutually exclusive.
 Mutually Exclusive Events
Example:
Decide if the two events are mutually exclusive.

Event A: Select a Jack from a deck of cards. Event B:

Select a heart from a deck of cards.

A J 9 2 B
3 10
J J A 7
K 4
J 5 8
6Q

Because the card can be a Jack and a heart at the same time,
the events are not mutually exclusive.
 The Addition Rule
Example:
100 college students were surveyed and asked how many hours a week
they spent studying. The results are in the table below. Find the
probability that a student spends between 5 and 10 hours or more than
10 hours studying.

The events are mutually exclusive.

P (5 to10 hours or more than 10 hours) = P (5 to10) + P (10)
46 30 76
    0.76
100 100 100
 Example: Suppose that Andy (A), Ben (B), and Chris (C)
are three men selected at random. If you learn that Andy is
taller than Chris, then what is the probability that Andy is
tallest of the three?
 Example: A man has two children. You happen to learn
that one of them is a boy. What are the chances that the
other child is a girl?

 Example: You plan to flip a coin six times. Intuitively,

which of the following outcomes is relatively more
likely? a) HHHTTT, b) HHTHTT, or c) TTTTTT
 Example: Suppose we flip two identical coins
simultaneously. What is the probability of obtaining a head
on the first coin (call event A) and a head on the second
coin (call event B)?
 Example: A card is drawn from a well shuffled pack of
playing cards. What is the probability that it will either a
spade or a queen?
 Example: In a SDM class there are 168 students of which
117 students are males and rest are females. Of these, 56
males and 18 females plan to major in Marketing. A student
is selected at random from this class and it is found that this
student plans to be a Marketing major. What is the
probability that the student is a male?
Mind Teasers
Henry has been caught stealing cattle, and is
brought into town for justice. The law clearly
calls for two shots to be taken at Henry from
close range. To make things a little better,
Gretchen, the judge, tells Henry she will place
two bullets into a six-chambered revolver in
successive order. Gretchen loads the chamber,
spins the revolver and pulls the trigger. Whew!
It was blank. Then Gretchen asks, “Do you
want me to pull the trigger again, or should I
spin the chamber a second time before pulling
the trigger?” What should Henry choose?
Mind Teasers
Mr. Black, Mr. Gray, and Mr. White are fighting in a
truel. They each get a gun and take turns shooting at
each other until only one person is left. Mr. Black, who
hits his shot 1/3 of the time, gets to shoot first. Mr.
Gray, who hits his shot 2/3 of the time, gets to shoot
next, assuming he is still alive. Mr. White, who hits his
shot all the time, shoots next, assuming he is also alive.
The cycle repeats. If you are Mr. Black, where should
you shoot first for the highest chance of survival?
 Mind Teasers
Twenty-one flags were planted in the field of play
between the tribes, who took turns removing the flags.
Each tribe at its turn could choose to remove 1 or 2 or
3 flags. (Thus zero-passing up one’s turn was not
permitted; nor was it within the rules to remove four
or more at one turn.) The team to take the last flag,
whether standing alone or as a part of a group of 2 or 3
flags, won the game. If you were to move first, how
may flags would you take?
 Mind Teasers
The price of a Tumbler is Rs. 1, a Bowl is
Rs. 0.05 and a Plate is Rs. 5. You have Rs.
100 and you need to buy 100 items. You
have to buy each item. How many of each
would you buy?