Chapter-6

Network Analysis
([email protected])

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6.1. Introduction: Network Analysis
What is a Network?
• Networks are patterns of relationships that connect individuals, institutions, or
objects (or leave them disconnected).
• Networks are Everywhere
Physical Networks
 Road Networks
 Railway Networks
 Airline traffic Networks
 Electrical networks, e.g., the power grid
 Communication networks/internet networks
 Computer networks
Social networks
 Organizational charts
 Friendship networks
 Interaction networks (e.g., cell calls)

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• A network is a set of nodes connected by a set of edges
 Nodes are also called vertices
 Edges are also called links
 Networks are also called graphs
• A node represents an entity, this can be anything:
 People
 Cities
 Symptoms
 Psychological constructs
• An edge represents some connection between two nodes. Again, this can be
anything:
 Friendship / contact
 Distance
 Comorbidity
 Causality
 Interaction
• Networks can be directed or undirected.
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Directed network Undirected network

Why Do we study networks?

 All human activity is embedded within networks, so anything could be studied
using network analysis.
 Networks are substantive phenomena we care about (e.g., electricity, telephone,
project, a policy network)
 We may theorize that access to networks affects an outcome we care about (e.g.,
Does access to social networks affect our communication skills).
 Network analysis may provide a method to solve a problem (e.g., Which
employee has a good network to access the most timely information?)

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Network Models
A) The Shortest Route Problem
• Given a road network and a starting node s, we want to determine the shortest
path to all the other nodes in the network (or to a specified destination node).
• Networks are weighted with costs, distance
Example: Equipment Replacement
A RentCar is developing a replacement policy for its car fleet for a 4-year period.
At the start of the first year, the RentCar must purchase a car. At the start of each
subsequent year, a decision can be made as to keep a car or to replace it. The car
has to be in service for at least 1 year and no more than 3 years. The replacement
cost ($) is shown in the table below as a function of the period when it is purchased
and the years kept in operation.
Start of a year Years in Operation
1 2 3
1 4,000 5,400 9,800
2 4,300 6,700 8,700
3 4,800 7,100 -
4 4,900 - -
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• The problem is to determine the best decision that minimizes the total cost
incurred over the period of 4 years.
• All possible decisions ($)

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• The best decision corresponds to the shortest path from node 1 to node 5, which
is 1 3  5 with the cost of $5400+7100 = $12,500. This path corresponds to
the decision of purchasing the car in years 1 and 3.

Solving Shortest Path Problem: Dijkstra’s Algorithm

 There are different algorithms to Solving the Problem. These include:
Dijkstra’s algorithm
• Solves only the problems with non-negative costs, i.e., Cij > 0 for all (i, j)
Bellman-Ford algorithm
• Applicable to problems with arbitrary costs
Floyd-Warshall algorithm
• Applicable to problems with arbitrary costs
• Solves a more general all-to-all shortest path problem

Importance of Dijkstra’s algorithm

• It is applied to automatically find directions between physical locations, such as
driving directions.
• It is also used for solving a variety of shortest path problems arising in plant and
facility layout, robotics, transportation

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• Suppose we want to find a shortest path from a given node s to other nodes in a
network (one-to-all shortest path problem)
Dijkstra’s algorithm solves such a problem
• It finds the shortest path from a given node s to all other nodes in the network
• Node s is called a starting node or an initial node.
• Dijkstra’s algorithm starts by assigning some initial values for the distances from
node s and to every other node in the network.
• It operates in steps, where at each step the algorithm improves the distance
values. At each step, the shortest distance from node s to another node is
determined.
• The algorithm characterizes each node by its state. The state of a node consists
of two features: distance value and status label
• Distance value of a node is a scalar representing an estimate of its distance from
node s. Status label is an attribute specifying whether the distance value of a
node is equal to the shortest distance to node s or not.
• The status label of a node is Permanent if its distance value is equal to the
shortest distance from node s, otherwise, the status label of a node is Temporary
• The algorithm maintains and step-by-step updates the states of the nodes. At each
step one node is designated as Current MLT/Lecture Note 11/27/2023
Notation:
• di denotes the distance value of a node i.
• p or t denotes the status label of a node, where p stand for permanent and t
stands for temporary
• cij is the cost of traversing link (i, j) as given by the problem.

Algorithm Steps
Step 1. Initialization
• Assign the zero distance value to node s, and label it as Permanent. [The state
of node s is (0, p).]
• Assign to every node a distance value of ∞ and label them as Temporary. [The
state of every other node is (∞, t).]
• Designate the node s as the current node.
Step 2. Distance Value Update and Current Node Designation Update
• Let i be the index of the current node.
1) Find the set J of nodes with temporary labels that can be reached from the
current node i by a link (i, j). Update the distance values of these nodes.

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• For each j E J, the distance value dj of node j is updated as follows
new dj = min{dj, di +cij} where cij is the cost of link (i, j), as given
in the network problem.
2) Determine a node j that has the smallest distance value d j among all nodes j E J,
find j such that min dj = dj*, jEJ
3) Change the label of node j* to permanent and designate this node as the current
node.

Step 3. Termination Criterion

• If all nodes that can be reached from node s have been permanently labeled, then
stop, because you are done.
• If we cannot reach any temporary labeled node from the current node, then all
the temporary labels become permanent - you are done. Otherwise, go to Step 2.

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 Dijkstra’s Algorithm: Example

• We want to find the shortest path from node 1 to all other nodes using Dijkstra’s
algorithm.
Step -1: Initialization
• Node 1 is designated as the current node
• The state of node 1 is (0, p)
• Every other node has state (∞, t)

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Step 2:
• Nodes 2, 3,and 6 can be reached from the current node 1
• Update distance values for these nodes
d2 = min{∞, 0+7} = 7
d3 = min{∞, 0+9} = 9
d6 = min{∞, 0+14} = 14

• Now, among the nodes 2, 3, and 6, node 2 has the smallest distance value
• The status label of node 2 changes to permanent, so its state is (7, p), while the
status of 3 and 6 remains temporary
• Node 2 becomes the current node
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Step 3: Graph at the end of Step 2
We are not done as not all
nodes have been reached from
node 1, so we perform another
iteration (back to Step 2).

• Nodes 3 and 4 can be

reached from the current
node 2
• Update distance values for
these nodes
d3 = min{9, 7+10} = 9
d6 = min{∞, 7+15} = 22

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• Now, between the nodes 3 and 4, node 3 has the smallest distance value. The
status label of node 3 changes to permanent, while the status of 6 remains
temporary
• Node 3 becomes the current node. We are not done (Step 3 fails), so we perform
another Step 2.
• Nodes 6 and 4 can be reached from the current node 3
• Update distance values for them
• d4 = min{22, 9+11} = 20
• d6 = min{14, 9+2} = 11

• Now, between the nodes 6 and 4

node 6 has the smallest distance
value. The status label of node 6
changes to permanent, while the
status of 4 remains temporary
• Node 6 becomes the current node.

We are not yet done (Step 3 fails), so we perform another Step 2

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• Node 5 can be reached from the current node 6
• Update distance value for node 5
d5 = min{∞, 11+9} = 20

• Now, node 5 is the only candidate,

so its status changes to permanent
• Node 5 becomes the current node
• From node 5 we cannot reach any
other node. Hence, node 4 gets
permanently labeled and we are
done.

B) The Maximal Flow Problem

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C) Network Analysis in project management
What is a Project?
 A sequence of connected events that are conducted over a defined and limited
period of time and are targeted towards generating a unique but well defined
outcome.

 A temporary endeavor undertaken to create a unique product or service.

 A project is an endeavor in which human (or machine), material and financial

resources are organized in a novel way, to undertake a unique scope of work of
a given specifications, within constraints of cost and time, so as to deliver
beneficial change defined by quantitative and qualitative objectives.

Example: housing projects; schools building projects; PhD research project;

Obtaining an MBA; Wedding

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Project Life Cycle
Project Identification

Evaluation Preparation

Monitoring and reporting Appraisal and Selection

Implementation Negotiation and Financing

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 Chapter-6
Quality, Time, Cost and staff level vs project life cycle

Intermediate
phase
Cost and staffing

Initial Final phase

phase
level

Start Time Finish

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 Chapter-6
Project Management
Why project management?
Because the success or failure of projects depends on the management
 Project management (PM) is the discipline of planning, organizing, staffing
and directing of resources to bring about the successful completion of
projects and achievement of specified project objectives.

 Project management is the application of knowledge, skills and techniques to

execute projects effectively and efficiently.

 PM facilitates the planning, scheduling, and controlling of all activities that

must be done to achieve project objectives.

 PM aims to ensure the effective use of resources and delivery of the project
objectives on time, within cost constraints and required quality.

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 Chapter-6
Types of Network Analysis in project management
 Network analysis plays an important role in project management.
 By analyzing a network, which is a graphic depiction of ‘activities and
events’, the planning, scheduling and control of a project becomes much
easier.
 The two well-known network analysis techniques used to assist managers in
planning and controlling large scale projects are Critical Path Method
(CPM) and Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT).
 While working on large scale projects like construction of dam, residential
apartment, etc., large amounts of money, manpower, and other equipment
are involved.
 CPM and PERT techniques are used in planning (such as time estimation and
scheduling, specifying activities and corresponding required resources and
sequences of different jobs and specific tasks) and controlling the resources
of the projects.
 In particular, the techniques help the project managers to determine:
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 Chapter-6
 the expected project completion date;
 the scheduled start and completion time for the different activities comprising
the project;
 the key activities of the project which must be completed at the scheduled
time.
 the time period by which the non-key activities may be delayed without
causing a delay in the completion of the whole project, etc.
 Both CPM and PERT techniques use similar terminology and have similar
purpose; but they were developed independently.
 While CPM and PERT have similarities in terms of concepts and
methodology, a basic difference exists between the two techniques.
 PERT is useful for analyzing project scheduling problems in which the
completion time of the different activities, and therefore the whole project, is
not certain.
 PERT thus emphasizes the uncertainties of the completion times of the
activities.

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 Chapter-6

 CPM, on the other hand, is most appropriately used in projects in which the
activity durations are known with certainty.
 In CPM, not only the amount of time needed to complete the various facets of
the project but also the amounts of resources required for performing ach of
the activities are assumed to be known.
 CPM is basically concerned with obtaining the trade-offs between the project
duration and cost.
 As such, whereas variation in the project time is inherent in projects where
PERT is used, the time is systematically varied (using additional resources)
where CPM is employed.
 Thus, PERT is probabilistic in nature (and mostly suitable in R&D project)
while CPM is deterministic with mostly applied in construction projects.

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 Chapter-6
6.2. CPM/PERT Network Components
CPM and PERT techniques are suitable for any situation where:
i. The project consists of well-defined collection of activities or tasks.
ii.The activities can be started and terminated independently of each other, even if
the resources employed on the various activities are not independent.
iii.The activities are ordered so that they can be performed in a technological
sequence. Therefore, precedence relationships exist which preclude the start of
certain activities until others are completed.
 As explained, a project can be viewed as a set of
activities/tasks/jobs/operations that are performed in a certain sequence
determined logically or technologically.
 The initial step in CPM/PERT project scheduling process is, therefore, the
determination of all specific activities that comprise the project and their
interdependence relationships.
 Example, suppose that a new machine is required by a department for which
budget approval is needed. The use of a new machine necessitates employing
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 Chapter-6
An operator who would be trained for operating the machine. The operator can be
hired as soon as the proposal of buying the machine is cleared, and trained on a
similar machine in the training division of a company. Once the machine is
installed and the worker is trained, the trial production can commence. In this
project, the various activities required to be performed, along with the time
needed for their execution, are given in the table below (Table 6.1).
Table 6.1: List of activities and precedence relationships
Activity Description Duration (weeks) Immediate Predecessor(s)
A Obtain the budget approval 2 –
B Obtain the machine 5 A
C Hire the operator 1 A
D Install the machine 1 B
E Train the operator 6 C
F Produce the goods 1 D, E

The immediate predecessors for a particular activity are those that must be
completed immediately before the next activity starts.
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 Chapter-6
 The relationship of the activities can be portrayed graphically by a network in
an arrow diagram.
 Because the project planning function begins with a list of all the activities
and their precedence relationships, the network can be constructed through the
use of a series of arrows and nodes, thus conveniently expressing the
sequential nature of the project.
 Each of the activities that make up the project consumes time and resources
and has a definable beginning and ending.
 The arrows in a network represent the various activities of the project.
 The circles at the beginning and at the end of the arrow represent the nodes, or
the events, of beginning and completion, respectively, of the activity in
question.
 The difference: whereas an activity is a recognizable part of a project,
involving mental or physical work and requiring time and resources for its
completion; an event connects an accomplishment occurring at an
instantaneous point in time which neither requires any time for itself nor
consumes any resource.
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 Chapter-6

B (5) 3 D (1)
A (2) F (1)
1 2 5 6

C (1)
4
E (6)
Figure 6.1: Project arrow diagram

6.3. Rules in Constructing Network

 There are a number of concepts and ground rules in connection with the
handling of events and activities of a project network that should be followed.
 Such rules help to develop a correct structure of the network.
 The rules are:
i. Each defined activity is represented by one and only one arrow in the network.
ii.Before an activity ca be undertaken, all activities preceding it must
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completed.
 Chapter-6

Hence, a network should be developed on the basis of logical or technical

dependencies between various activities of the project.
iii. The arrows depicting various activities are indicative of the logical
precedence only. The length and bearing of the arrows are of no significance.
iv. The arrow direction indicates the general progression in time. The arrow head
entails the point in time at which the ‘activity completion’ event takes place,
while the arrow tail represents the point in time at which the event ‘activity
start’ occurs. The events marking the start of the activities are called tail-
events while those marking the completion of activities are known as head-
events.
v. When a number of activities terminate at one event, it indicates that no
activity emanating from that event may start unless all activities terminating
there have been completed.
Example:

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 Chapter-6

3
B E H 7 J
A C F
1 2 4 6 9 10
D G I K L
5
8
Note: H and I can not be occurred (started) before E, F and G are completed (it
implies that E, F and G must be completed before undertaking H and I, but their
completion is not necessarily at the same time or simultaneously). Likewise, J
and K must be completed before undertaking activity L.
vi. Events are identified by numbers, like in the above example 1 entails to the
event of ‘start’ occurs for activity A and 2 represents the event “end or
completion’ occurs for activity A, and so forth. An event identified by a
number should be higher than that allotted to the event immediately
preceding. The numbers for events should not be duplicated.

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 Chapter-6
vii. The activities are identified by the numbers of their starting and the ending
events, like in the above example 1 entails to the event of ‘start’ occurs for
activity A and 2 represents the event “end or completion’ occurs for event A,
and so forth. They expressed as i-j, where i entails to the start event while j
represents to the completion event. For E, for example, it can be expressed
as 3-6, where event 3 marks the beginning of activity B and event 6 entails
the completion (termination) of activity E.
viii. A network should have only one initial and one terminal node. In the above
example, event 1 is the initial and event 10 is the terminal for the network.
ix. An event which represents the joint completion of more than one activity is
known as a merge event, while an event which shows the initiation of more
than one activity is called the burst event. Event 6 is an example of merge
event while event 2 is an example of burst event.
x. Parallel activities between two events, without intervening events, are
prohibited. Thus, two or more activities cannot be identified by the same
beginning and ending events. By implication, any two events should not be
directly connected with more than one arrow. When two or more parallel

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 Chapter-6
activities in a project have the same head and tail events, dummy activities are
needed in constructing the network.

Example,
a) Incorrect B) correct
A A
2
1 2
B
1
B
3
Or

A 3

1
B 2

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 Chapter-6
xi. Looping is not permitted in a network. That is, if A precedes B, and B
precedes C, then C cannot precede A. In developing a network, it must be
ensured that loops are not present.

3
7
A B D E G H
1 2 6 9
C F
5

 In this network, activities E, F and D form a loop. Activity E requires that

activities B and D should be completed before it begins. But D depends on
activity F which will be initiated after activity E is completed. Therefore,
activity E can never start because it is dependent on itself.
 As such, an appearance of loop in a network suggests a fault in the logic, and
thus the definition of one or more of the dependency relationships is not valid.

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 Chapter-6
Redundancy in Precedence Relationships
 While determining the precedence(s) for each of the activities in a project,
care should be taken to ensure that only the immediately preceding activities
are included.
 There are some occasions that more predecessors than necessary are
mentioned, as such, some activities are shown as immediate predecessors
which in fact are distant predecessors (i.e., predecessor(s) of predecessor(s)).
 For example, assume that P, Q and R are listed as the immediate predecessors
of an activity Y, and further that activity R has P and Q as its predecessors.
 Obviously, P and Q are redundant as the predecessor set of activity Y because
so long as R precedes Y, the activities P and Q would automatically do so
since they both precede R.
 Though the existence of redundant predecessors does not cause a problem
insofar as the network logic is concerned, but it makes drawing of the network
more difficult and may require more dummy activities to be included.
 It is recommended, therefore, that redundant predecessors eliminated before
drawing the network.
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 Chapter-6
Location and Removal of Redundancy
A method to locate redundancy:
 First step, create a table with as many rows and columns as the number of
activities in a given project.
 Then, look at each row one by one and mark the immediate predecessors with
a ‘x’.
 If, for example, activity F has activities B, D and E as its predecessors, then
mark a ‘x’ under columns headed B, D and E.
 After the above process is completed, consider the rows of each of the
predecessors for their predecessors and mark columns of each of such
predecessors with a circle. In essence, each of the predecessors of an activity
is marked with a ‘x’ and the predecessors of each of the predecessors are
marked with a circle.
 Finally, focus on the circled x’s: they indicate redundancy.
Example: The following precedence relationship are given for a project
consisting of eight activities.
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 Chapter-6

Activity Immediate Predecessor(s)

A -

B A

C A

D A, C

E B, D

F B, D, E

G B, D

H E, F, G

Identify redundant immediate predecessor(s) if any.

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Redundancy in Precedence Relationships
Activity Predecessors
A B C D E F G H
A
B X
C X
D X X
E X X
F X X X
G X X
H X X X

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Explanation
 Activity A has no predecessor.
 In row D, A and C are shown as predecessors. Since C has A as the
predecessor, a circle is marked in column headed A, which causes the ‘X’ to
be circled.
 In row F, activities B, D and E are shown marked by ‘X’, being the
predecessors. Now, B has A as predecessor; D has A and C as predecessors; C
has A as predecessor; and E has B and D as predecessors. Thus, a circle
appears in columns headed A, C, B and D, and is found that the x’s under B
and D are circled.
 Consequently, each of the activities where the ‘x’ is circled are redundant, and
can be safely removed.
 As a result, the precedence relationship in the given project can be restated as
follows:

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 Chapter-6

Activity Immediate Predecessor(s)

A -

B A

C A

D C

E B, D

F E

G B, D

H F, G

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In a Graphic Network

3
B
A 6
1 2
C E F
4 D 5 G H
7 8

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Scheduling the Activities: Earliest and Latest Times
 After the project network plan is completed and activity times are known, we
consider the question how long the project would take to complete and when
the activities may be scheduled.
 The answers are provided by an arrow diagram and the time duration of the
various activities.
 The duration of completion and scheduling computations involve a forward
and a backward pass through the network.
 The forward pass calculations yield the earliest start and the earliest finish
times for each activity.
 The backward pass calculations render the latest allowable start and the latest
finish times for each activity.
 We shall demonstrate the calculation of earliest start, earliest finish, latest start
and latest finish times of various activities of a project with the help of the
following example.

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Example: Information on the activities required for a project is as follows:
Name Activities Node Duration (days)
A 1-2 2
B 1-3 7
C 1-4 8
D 2-5 3
E 3-5 6
F 3-6 10
G 3-7 4
H 4-6 6
I 5-7 2
J 6-8 5
K 7-8 6

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Required: Draw the network and calculate the earliest start (ES), earliest finish
(EF), latest start (LS), and latest finish (LF) times of each of the activities.
Solution:
A. Drawing the network

D (3)
2 5
A (2)
E (6) I (2)
1 B (7) G (4) 7 K (6) 8
3

C (8) F (10) J (5)

4 6
H (6)

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B. Determination of ES and EF times: Forward pass calculations
 Earliest start (ES) time indicates the earliest time that a given activity can be
scheduled, while the earliest finish (EF) indicates the time which the activity
can be completed, at the earliest time.
 To compute the ES and EF, a value of zero (0) is assigned to the initial event
of the project (i.e., each of the activities initiated from the starting node of the
network are assumed to start at time zero (the beginning of the first day of the
project).
 In the example, the ES for activities A, B and C is zero (0).
 Since the activity A has a duration of 2 days, its earliest finish (EF) time = 0 +
2 = 2. Likewise, EF times for activities B and C would be 7 & 8, respectively.
 All the subsequent activities are considered to start as soon as their
predecessors are completed.
 For a given activity, the ES would be taken as the maximum of the EF’s of the
activities preceding this activity.
 As such, the ES time for an activity leaving a particular node equals the
largest value of the EF times for all activities entering that node.
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 Chapter-6
 In the example, the ES for activity D would be equal 2; the EF of the
preceding activity A because it is the only predecessor activity. Whereas, for
activity I (i.e., 5-7), the ES time would be equal to 13, because of the two
activities terminating at event 5, with the largest EF value is activity E (3-5),
which is 13.
 The table below contains the ES and EF for the example.

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Table: Determination of ES and EF
Activity Duration Earliest
Start Finish
i-j tij ES EF
1-2 2 0 2
1-3 7 0 7
1-4 8 0 8
2-5 3 2 5
3-5 6 7 13
3-6 10 7 17
3-7 4 7 11
4-6 6 8 14
5-7 2 13 15
6-8 5 17 22
7-8 6 15 21

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C. Determination of LS and LF times: Backward pass calculations
 The concept of the backward pass is to compute the latest allowable times of
starting and finishing, LS and LF, of each of the activities of a project.
 The computation of the backward pass is the mirror image of the forward
pass.
 The term “latest allowable” means that the project’s terminal event is desired
to occur on or before some arbitrarily scheduled time. In view of this, the
latest time is assigned to the ending event of the project and then the
calculation for the latest start and finish times of various activities are made by
rolling back.
 In case no specific time is given for the completion of the project, the terminal
node of the project is assigned the latest of EF times of the activities merging
into it.
 In this our previous example, the activities 7-8 and 6-8 are the terminal
activities with EF times of 21 and 22, respectively. We, thus, assign a time 22
to the event 8. This implies that both these activities would be assigned their
LF times equal to 22.
 The LS time for an activity is therefore equal to its LF time minus its duration.
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 Chapter-6
 Accordingly, the LS for 7-8 would be 22 - 6 = 16, and the LS for 6-8 would be
22 – 5 = 17.
 For others, the latest (allowable) finish time for an activity would be set as
equal to the smallest or earliest of the latest allowable start times of its
successor times. The following table depicts the LS and LF times.
 In case more than one activity starts from a node, then the minimum of such
difference would be taken as the latest time for the event.
 For instance, for event 3, the differences are: 14 – 6 = 8; 16 – 4 = 12; and 17 –
10 = 7. Therefore, 7 is taken as the latest time for this event.

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 Chapter-6
Table: Determination of LS and LF
Activity Duration Latest
Start Finish
i-j tij LS LF
1-2 2 9 11
1-3 7 0 7
1-4 8 3 11
2-5 3 11 14
3-5 6 8 14
3-6 10 7 17
3-7 4 12 16
4-6 6 11 17
5-7 2 14 16
6-8 5 17 22
7-8 6 16 22

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 Chapter-6
D. Determination of the Critical path
 After having considered the determination of the earliest and the latest
scheduled times for various activities, we now proceed to calculate the
minimum time required for the completion of the whole project.
 To arrive at the duration of the project, we have to analyze the network and
determine what is known as its critical path.
 A path is a set of continuous series of activities through the network that lead
from the initial node of the network to its terminal node.
 For example, the connected activities defined by the nodes 1-2-5-7-8 in the
figure form a path which consists of the activities A, D, I and K. The length of
this path is 13 days.
 For the network in reference, all the paths and their lengths are as follows:
Path Activities Length
1-2-5-7-8 ADIK 13
1-3-5-7-8 BEIK 21
1-3-7-8 BGK 17
1-3-6-8 BFJ 22
1-4-6-8 CHJ 19
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 Chapter-6
 Of all the paths, our interest lies in the longest path through the network – the
one having the maximum length. This path determines the total time or
duration of the project and is called the critical path.
 The activities on the critical path are known as the critical activities while the
other activities of the project are non-critical.
 The critical activities are called so because a delay in any of them will affect
all the other following activities.
 The critical activities are those activities of the project that control the time
needed to complete the entire project. Therefore, the completion of the
project, as a whole, will suffer as a result of any delay along the critical path.
 In our example, the path 1-3-6-8 is the critical path, the critical activities being
B, F and J. According to this path, the project would require 22 days to
complete and any delay of activities B, F and/or J would be directly reflected
in the duration of the entire project.
 Therefore, the critical activities do not permit any flexibility in scheduling.

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 Chapter-6
 The following rules apply in locating the critical path of a network
i. If, for any activity, the ES time equals the LF time at the head of the arrow
and if the ES time equals the LF time at the tail of the arrow, the activity is
possibly a critical activity, lying on the critical path. This is the first necessary
condition for criticality.
ii. If the first condition is met and the difference between the ES time at the head
of the arrow and the ES time at the tail of the arrow is equal to the duration of
the activity, then the activity is critical and lies on the critical path. This
represents a sufficient condition for a critical activity.
 In our example, for the activity 3-6, the ES at head of the arrow (for the
activity 6-8) is 17 as also is the LF here, while the ES at the tail of the arrow is
7, which coincides with the LF at this event (for the preceding activity 1-3).
By this, the first of the above stated conditions is met.
 Also, the difference between these two times, 17 – 7 = 10, is the same as the
duration of the activity (condition 2). This is, therefore, a critical activity.
 However, for the activity 3-5, though the ES time at the tail is the same as the
LF time (=7), the ES time at the head is 13 while the LF is 14. This, therefore,
is not a critical activity.
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 Chapter-6
PERT
 In the preceding analysis, the scheduling times of various activities, the
critical path, and the project length were all determined on the basis of the
activity times, which were assumed to be known and constant.
 While the known and constant assumption holds for the CPM analysis, any
given activity delineated in a network is unlikely to be completed on time.
 Sometimes all aspects of a job may be easier to complete than expected, and
other times, unexpected obstacles may occur, causing unexpected delay.
 Due to expectations ( or probability of completing a project based on plan),
PERT uses three time estimates for an activity.
1. Optimistic time (a):
 This is the shortest time an activity can take to complete.
 There is more than one chance in a hundred of completing the activity in this
amount of time.
 It represents an ideal estimate.

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 Chapter-6
2. Most likely time (m):
 This refers to the time that would be expected to occur most often if the
activity were frequently repeated under exactly the same condition.
 It is the modal time.
3. Pessimistic time (b):
 This is the longest time the activity could take to finish.
 It is the worst time estimate and represents the time the activity would take if
bad luck was faced.
Beta Distribution of

Probability
Activity Times

m = Modal

pessimistic
Optimistic

expected
time

time
tei =
time

time
b=
a=

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 Chapter-6
 Depending on the values of a, m, and b, the resulting distribution of activity
duration can take a variety of forms. Typically, completion of a given activity
is assumed to follow beta distribution.
 Using the values of a, m, and b, the expected times of various activities and
their standard deviations are calculated as follows. The three time estimates
are reduced into a single expected time (tei) with the weighted average
formula:

tei
Where,
tei = expected time of the ith activity
a = optimistic time
m = most likely, or modal time
b = pessimistic time
 The standard deviation, σi, of the completion time of an activity is calculated
as:
σi
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 Chapter-6
 The variance, therefore, is:
2
σ2 i
 Once the expected times of the activities are obtained, the critical path of the
project network is determined using these time estimates.
 Having found the critical path, the PERT method assumes that the aggregation
of the mean times and the summation of the variances of critical jobs would
yield the project duration expected and its variance.
 An assumption invoked is that of the Central Limit Theorem, which states
that the sum of several independent activity durations will tend to be normally
distributed, with a mean equal to the sum of their individual job times and the
variance equal to the sum of their individual activity variances.
 Accordingly, the probability distribution of times for completing a project can
be approximated by using a normal distribution curve which becomes more
exact as the number of activities increases.
 Estimates using the curve can be fairly exact if and when there are at least 30
activities along a given path.

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 Chapter-6
 For a given project, if the critical activities are 1, 2, ...., k, we have:
Te = te1 + te2 + te3 +........+ tek , and
VT or σ2T = σ21 + σ22 + σ23 +.......+ σ2k
 The distribution of the project completion times is, then, normally distributed
with μ = Te and σ = σT. This can be used to determine the probability of
completing the project by a given date, or during a given time interval.
N.B.
1. If there are two (or more) critical paths in a given network, then the one with
the largest variance value should be used for determining T e and VT.
2. The probability calculations mentioned above represent only the probability
of completing the activities on the critical path, and the activities on the other
critical path (if it exists) and the non-critical path(s) are ignored.
Here, it is implicitly assumed that the other activities would be completed by the
time the critical activities are over. This assumption may be reasonable if the
expected length of the critical path is significantly higher than the length of the
other non-critical paths.
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 Chapter-6
3. The PERT is based on the assumption that the critical path is fixed and given
once and for all, which is wrong in principle.
Example:
The owner of in-and-out burger (a chain of fast-food restaurants) is considering a
new computer system for accounting and inventory control. A computer
installation consultant sent the ff information about the system installation:

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 Chapter-6
Required:
a. Construct an arrow diagram for this problem.
b. Determine the critical path and compute the expected project completion time.
c. Determine the probability of completing the project in 55 days.
Solution:
d. Arrow diagram (network)
E (10,18,26)
3 5
B (5,7,15)
A (4,6,8) D (15,20,25) G (4,8,12)
1 2

C (4,8,12) 7 8
F (8,9,16) H (1,2,3) I (6,7,8)
4 6

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 Chapter-6
b. Determination of critical path and expected project completion time

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 Chapter-6
 Using the expected time of activity duration, we obtain the critical path as 1 –
2 – 3 – 5 – 7 – 8.
 Thus, we have the expected project length,
Te = 6 + 8 + 18 + 8 + 7 = 47 days.
and the variance of the project length,
VT = + + + + =
 Now, the project duration being normally distributed with mean (Te) = 47 days
and standard deviation, σ = = = 3.496 days.
 Now, we can determine the probability of the project being completed in 55
days.
c. Determine the probability of completing the project in 55 days.
 The probability of the project being completed in 55 days would be equal to
the area under the normal curve lying to the left of X = 55, as shown in the
following figure.

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 Chapter-6
Z=
 From the normal area table, the area between mean and z = 2.89 under the
normal curve is found to be equal to 0.4981. Normal distribution (Z)-table.pdf
 Hence, the required probability = 0.5 + 0.4981 = 0.9981.

μ = 47 days
σ = 3.496 days

Project duration (in days)

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 Time – Cost Trade offs – Crashing
• Time reduction, time shortening or project crashing
• Reducing duration of activities in order to reduce project duration.
• Time-Cost Trade-Off analysis is used to find the minimum overall project cost for
a specified project duration.

Methods to reduce
durations
• Overtime work
• Hiring and/or
subcontracting
• Use of Advanced technology

How Project is crashed?

1st time/cost combination (D, CD)- called normal [Normal – usual ‘average’ time, resources]
2nd time/cost combination (d, Cd)- called Crash [expedite by applying additional resources ]
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 How Project is crashed?
1st time/cost combination (D, CD)- called normal [Normal – usual ‘average’ time, resources]
2nd time/cost combination (d, Cd)- called Crash [expedite by applying additional resources ]

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 Steps in Project Crashing
1. Compute the crash cost per time period. If crash costs are linear over time:

2. Using current activity times, find the critical path and identify the critical
activities
3. If there is only one critical path, then select the activity on this critical path that
(a) can still be crashed, and (b) has the smallest crash cost per period. If there is
more than one critical path, then select one activity from each critical path such
that (a) each selected activity can still be crashed, and (b) the total crash cost of all
selected activities is the smallest.
4. Update all activity times. If the desired due date has been reached, stop. If not,
return to Step 2.

Example:
For the small project shown in the table in the next slide, it is required reduce the
project duration by 2 periods.

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 ES EF
1.Develop Network

Total float = LF – EF LS TF LF

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2. Calculate times, find critical path

Project completion date = 22 working days; Critical Path = A, C, F & H

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3. Calculate cost slope

Note:
i) G cannot expedite (be accelerated);
ii) Lowest slope and can be expedited on critical path is activity (C) WITH 2
periods
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Reduce 2 periods of activity (C) with increase cost of (2*50) = $100

Project completion time = 20 working days

Critical path = A, C, F, H and A, D, H
Reduction of time from 22 to 20 working days increases cost to $3,150.
Exercise
Crash the project by five (5) periods
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