Power Scenario IN India: A.S.Bakshi Chief Engineer (Planning Wing) Central Electricity Authority
Power Scenario IN India: A.S.Bakshi Chief Engineer (Planning Wing) Central Electricity Authority
Power Scenario IN India: A.S.Bakshi Chief Engineer (Planning Wing) Central Electricity Authority
POWER SCENARIO
POWER or ELECTRICITY critical infrastructural component for multidimensional growth and basic human need Reliable and quality power at competitive rates to Indian industry - important for global competition. Clean and Green Sustainable Power need of the day. Energy Security
Thermal Hydro
Nuclear Renewable
1,24,287 1,32,329
'06 '07
'47
1,362
2,695
'55
'61
4,653
9,027
'66
16,664
'74
28,448
'80
42,585
'85
63,636
'90
81,171
'95
1,05,046
'02
1,07,877
'03
1,18,426
'04
2,24,907 *
'12 (Projeced)
Source: CEA
* includes Likely capacity Addition of 14000 MW from Renewables during 11th plan period
COUNTRYS SHARE OF COAL IN TOTAL POWER GENERATION AND INSTALLED CAPACITY OVER YEARS
73 69
71 68
% of Coal based Capacity in Total Generating Capacity % of Coal based Generation in Total Generation
Share in % (app.)
61
59
57
53
2000
2003
2005
2008
Year
ALL INDIA PLF (%) OF THERMAL POWER STATIONS (COAL AND LIGNITE BASED)
Source: CEA
1998- Electricity Regulatory Commission Act 1998 - Electricity Laws (Amendment) Act 2001- Electricity Conservation Act 2003- Electricity Act February ,2005- National Electricity Policy January 2006- National Tariff Policy August 23, 2006 - Rural Electrification Policy August 2006- Integrated Energy Policy. January 2007- Report submitted by Working Group on Power for 11th Plan constituted by Planning Commission. August,2007 - National Electricity Plan notified.
Access to electricity for all households in next 5 years. Availability of power on demand to be fully met by 2012 Energy shortage and peaking shortage to be overcome by providing adequate spinning reserves Reliability and quality of power to be supplied in efficient manner . Electricity Sector to achieve financial turnaround and commercial viability Consumers interests to be accorded top priority.
Competition encouraged - to bring significant benefit to consumers Guidelines for competitive bidding issued by Government in January,2005.
Role of private participation in generation, transmission and distribution to become increasingly critical in view of rapidly growing investment needs. Central and State Governments to develop workable and successful models for public private partnership.
Special mechanisms to be created to encourage private investment in transmission sector
Private Sector participation in distribution encouraged for achieving requisite reduction in T&D losses and improving quality of service to consumer Multi Year tariff framework- important structural incentive to minimize risks for utilities and consumers, promote efficiency and rapid reduction of system losses. Competition through concept of multiple licensees in same area through their independent distribution system
Electricity Act & National Electricity Policy mandates non-discriminatory open access in transmission and, in phases in distribution. Respective State Regulatory Commissions to facilitative framework for open access. Well planned and strong transmission and distribution system to ensure optimal utilization of transmission capacities Would facilitate achieving objective of cost effective delivery of power. Distribution reform - key to long term sustainability of the power sector.
TOTAL IC-1,45,627 MW
Largest unit size in 1950-30 MW First re-heat unit of 82.5 MW in 1966 at Bandel TPS First 200 MW unit at Obra TPS in 1977 First 500 MW unit at Trombay in 1984 Committee constituted by CEA recommended 800 to 1000 MW unit size in future In 11th Plan 800/660 MW units planned
Unit Size
Gross Efficiency (HHV ) (%) ~31 32-33 35-36 37.8 38.4 38.6
kg/cm2 30-50 60-100 110/120/140 210 250 500 60 90 130 150 150 170
210/250 & 500 MW Units Constitute Over 80% of the Total Capacity
Sources / Systems
Wind Power
7666.84
Biomass Power & Biomass Gasifiers Small Hydro Power Solar power & others Total
Development in a phased manner commensurate with generation / load growth. Economy in generation through efficient transmission Conservation of Right-of-Way
In forest areas with rich flora & fauna, construction of lines with high towers / high voltage rating leading to reduced forest cutting.
High capacity lines (HVDC & 765 kV)
1990s
1970-80s
1950s
Local
1950-60s
2000 onwards
Towards National Grid System
25000 22526
Energy in Millon Units
23134
10000
5000
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
Energy Traded
(Contd. .)
(Contd. .)
74 53
60 40 20 0 2001-02 3
4 2002-03
2 0 2004-05 Year
1 0 2005-06
0 0 2006-07
Minor
0 0 2007-08
Major
2003-04
1997
2002
2007
2012 (proj.)
Source: CEA
1000
1980- 199081 91
2007- 201108 12
(Projected)
Country
facing energy shortage of 9.8% and peak shortage of 16.6% (2007-08). As per Census 2001, only about 56% of households have access to electricity, with rural access being 44% and urban access about 82%. Annual per capita consumption about 704 kWh as against world average of about ~2400 KWh.
(%)
(-)16.6
(-)9.8
CAPTIVE POWER
National Electricity Policy stipulates liberal provisions for setting up captive power plants Installed Capacity if Captive plants- 22,335 MW
(10th Plan end)
Captive Power
Very high electricity duty imposed on captive power generation by some states.
Very high cross subsidies surcharge levied by some state. To be brought down
Fixation of reasonable tariff by State Regulatory Commission for surplus power available from CPPs.
To make available additional fuel required by CPPs SERCs to promote arrangements between cogenerator and concerned distribution licensee for purchase of surplus power from cogeneration plants.
Cont..
21,180*
6
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Capacity Addition from Conventional fuel based plants complemented by Renewable Energy based plants to extent possible. National Electricity Plan based on Conventional Energy Sources with priority to Hydro and Nuclear plants Strategies/ Initiatives being taken/ required to be taken for low carbon growth i.e. Introduction of Clean Coal Technologies (Supercritical Technology, Ultra supercritical technology, IGCC), Other measures to reduce pollution i.e. Reduction in T&D losses, R&M of Old thermal power projects, Retirement of old and small size generating units, Coal quality improvement
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
- STRATEGY
Large emphasis on hydro development. Constraints restricting progress are large gestation period, high capital cost, Issues such as R&R, law & order etc. New Hydro Policy to encourage private participation in hydro power generation. Limited dependability on gas based capacity Availability of gas at reasonable rates being a constraint for gas based projects. During 11th Plan only about 6,843 MW gas based capacity envisaged. Active steps to harness Nuclear energy on a larger scale being taken but contribution minor as yet. Renewables.
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
GENERATION - STRATEGY
dominant role in meeting remote located demands where not economic to extend the grid.
Coal based power projects expected to be main stay of Indian Power Sector for next 50-70 years. Continuous efforts directed at generating
maximum energy from each tonne of coal with minimum effect on environment
11th Plan (2007-08 to 2011 - 12) 12th Plan (2012-13 to 2016-17) 13th Plan (2017 - 18 to 2021-22) 14th Plan (2022-23 to 2026 - 27)
2011-12
1038
1,52,000
9.5% (over
2006-07)
2016-17
1470
2,18,209
7.4% (over
2011-12)
26,783 MW
(34%)
36,874 MW
47%
Total 78,700 MW
Thermal 58,183 MW ( Coal 48,609 MW, Gas- 7,293 MW, Lignite- 2,280 MW) : New Renewables 14,000 MW : Captive 12,000 MW * Feasible capacity as per latest assessment Additional capacity expected
10th Plan capacity addition only 21,180 MW. About 11,000 MW slippages due to causes attributable to equipment suppliers and contractors.
11th Plan 77,070 MW - 11,404 MW capacity already commissioned (Till date) - 65,666 MW (83%) under construction - 85% hydro capacity under construction - Coal Linkage available for 96% of projects
- All gas based projects under execution or gas tied up from local sources Additional 3,720 MW thermal projects under best effort category. Additional 13,000 MW gas based projects if gas available at reasonable price
On 4th-5th July,2007 organized by CBIP/MoP/CEA. discuss issues to be addressed to ensure timely Implementation of projects during 11th Plan and beyond .
Purpose-To
MAJOR ISSUES AND CONSTRAINTS TO BE ADDRESSED Manufacturing Capability/ Availability of Main Plant and Balance Of Plant Equipment
Constraints
in supply of main equipment for thermal capacity as well as in supply of balance of plant like Coal Handling plant, Water treatment plants, Ash Handling, CW Pumps etc. Need to develop additional domestic players to adequately meet additional demand and promote competition.
Manpower Development & Training CEA has taken up with project developers and major EPC contractors to
adopt ITI in vicinity of projects to build up skilled manpower pool for Power Sector to be utilized by them. Quick implementation of National Training Policys recommendation allocation of separate funds of 1.5% of salary budget - gradually increase to 5% for meeting training needs Man power requirement during 11th Plan is 1 Million for Construction and O& M
10,500
Biomass Power Baggasse Cogeneration Biomass Gasifiers Small Hydro (up to 25 MW)
Total
2,100 1400
14,000
Village Electrification
Number
of villages electrified increased from 3061 in 1950 to about 4,88,655 in 2008 (as on 31.07.08, 82.3% village electrification).
Renewable Energy Sources during 12th Plan Capacity addition during 12th Plan expected to be more than 11th Plan due to incentives by MNRE for setting up of Solar and Wind power plants Considering at least 14,000 MW during 12th Plan also, by 12th Plan end about 38,000 MW Renewable power expected. Assuming PLF of 20 %, generation about 67 BU. This energy considered while planning for 12th Plan
upto 100 MW unit size and 31,380 MW capacity greater than 100 MW unit size)
Studies indicate 13th Plan capacity addition-1,05,060 MW (Hydro-34,500 MW, Nuclear -8,000 MW, Thermal -62,560 MW including 6000 MW gas) LOLP-0.18 % and ENS-0.007 %, Reliability Criteria met.
R & M of old thermal power stations Benefits of CDM to be extended to overcome fund constraints Energy Efficiency improvement
Clean coal technologies( CCT) have pollution abatement in energy conversion process so external environmental control equipments not required
Adoption of Supercritical technology Ultra supercritical (USC) and advanced
technology Circulating Fluidized Bed Combustion ( CFBC) Pressurized Fluidized Bed Combustion (PFBC) Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) In-Situ gasification Low NOx burners Oxy-fuel combustion
USC
95 73
157
17
33,580
4,250
11 42 20 8 0
0 7 25 36 45
0 1 33 36 52
4000 0
11th Plan
12th Plan
13th Plan
14th Plan
Sub-Critical
Super Critical
Present weighted average CO2 emission rate (t CO2 /MWh) (including imports) : 0.80 (2006-07)
11th Plan
50240
116610
708
492
722
1.02
35.3
182
12th Plan
58485
175095
1164
785
1152
0.99
36.4
278
13th Plan
56500
231595
1542
1028
1507
0.97
36.85
363
14th Plan
72000
303595
2033
1337
1961
0.96
37.3
471
of Existing Plants
Data,Capacity (MW),Life of the plant, Capital Cost, Executing Agency Candidate Projects Demand data Load Curves Hourly demand data of Past one Year
Outage Rate, Heat Rate, Auxiliary Consumption, Monthly Energy If Hydro Project, Coal Price
Integrated System Planning (ISPLAN) Expansion Generation Electric Analysis System (EGEAS) Multysym Model
Thank You