Wick Welker's Reviews > The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order

Spoiler alert: China wants to displace the US.

This is an incredibly dry analysis of China’s geopolitical strategy based largely on the CCP’s own internal documents since the 1990s. The conclusion is pretty obvious and undeniable: China wants to overtake the US’s world hegemonic control. I know, I’m as shocked as you are. I think the author here does a good job of laying out the strategy although with a serious amount of repetition.

The crux of the story is this: starting in the 1990s, China has had a grand strategy of blunting and displacing. The author argues that three events in the 1990s catalyzed this strategy for China: Tiananmen square, the US Gulf War and the Soviet collapse. Since those events, China has had a strategy of hiding its ability and keeping a low profile while shoring up regional control in Asia. The whole idea in the 1990s was to not appear as a threat to the US so the US doesn’t do what it always does: manufacture the collapse of socialist regimes. Clearly, China was successful in keeping this low profile while ramping up its manufacturing and becoming an export behemoth. During this time, China has a weird naval strategy: overinvesting in submarine and mine technology and doing nothing about trying to get aircraft carriers. The plan was to thwart US advanced aircraft carrier capabilities rather than to directly challenge its own aircraft carriers. It was all a defensive strategy. China developed the world’s largest submarine fleet to blunt regional US naval control.

Another strategy is that China was worried about neighbors colluding with the US, so China has made many attempts at diplomatic multilateral efforts by joining organizations like APEC, all with the attempt at blunting the US in the pacific rim. China basically sabotaged the APEC so it wouldn’t become an Asian NATO where the US could exert influence. China has also been obsessed with maintaining MFN (Most Favored Nation) status which has greatly helped globalize its markets and catapult its GDP to rival that of the US’s, primed to change their strategy into being more aggressive after the 2008 financial collapse.

Cue the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China just took a page from the US and how it's used the IMF and WTO to slap down BRI projects all over the place even if they make zero economic sense to maintain debt leverage and control over smaller countries with budding economies. The entire point of BRI is for China to gain regional dominance and put China at the center of other country’s economies. China has successfully executed monterey diversification even offering up its own China back payment systems, CIPS, to compete with SWIFT.

Now with the rise of Trumpism and fracturing of social and cultural cohesion, China likely sees the time is ripe to become more aggressive with US hegemonic blunting. China basically now overtly states its aims are to subvert the US’s position in the world. Does this mean more military aggression? Probably not. As the author argues, you can take over hegemonic control peacefully which it seems China has become adept at doing.

Here’s what’s missing from this book: China’s incredible weaknesses like its burdensome dependence on supply chains for its exporting and manufacturing. China’s success for the last 20-30 years is because of its hyper financed model based on cheap credit. The unraveling of the American lead order may completely upend China’s model of success. China's navy is large but only has 3 aircraft carriers opposite of US’s 11. Yes, China can bomb the hell out of its own waterways if any southeast asian country tries to take control but it will cut off mainland China from essential trading that it needs to even support its own population. Combine a plummeting fertility rate that will destroy its work force with mass starvation and single party rule and you have the perfect cocktail for social upheaval. China could be right around the corner at any moment of its own society unraveling.

Also missing from this book is how much US treasury China holds: it’s a lot. It does this to keep its export prices low to keep its labor force robust. China depends on the US to maintain a trade surplus which is one of the entire reasons China has been so successful. China is dependent on US consumption. The point is, the US and China are locked into interdependence. How can you blunt your rival when your literal success depends on theirs? Anything China does to disrupt this arrangement will be much much worse for China than the US.

Anyway, I found this book worthwhile.