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World Economic Turndown and Challenges For China

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The document discusses the impact of the global economic downturn on China. It provides historical GDP data showing that: [1] China's GDP as a percentage of the world total has grown significantly from 22.3% in 1700 to 15.1% in 2003, though it declined in the late 20th century; [2] China's GDP per capita remains far below Western Europe and the US, though it has grown substantially since 1700; [3] China has experienced some of the fastest growth rates in Asia over the past 20 years, averaging 8.25% annually. The document comments on structural features of China's economy that affect its ability to weather the global slowdown.

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31 views9 pages

World Economic Turndown and Challenges For China

Uploaded by

api-26091012
The document discusses the impact of the global economic downturn on China. It provides historical GDP data showing that: [1] China's GDP as a percentage of the world total has grown significantly from 22.3% in 1700 to 15.1% in 2003, though it declined in the late 20th century; [2] China's GDP per capita remains far below Western Europe and the US, though it has grown substantially since 1700; [3] China has experienced some of the fastest growth rates in Asia over the past 20 years, averaging 8.25% annually. The document comments on structural features of China's economy that affect its ability to weather the global slowdown.

Copyright:

Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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World Economic Turndown and Challenges for China

Fu Jun
Peking University
• China in historical and comparative perspectives
• Growth and explain growth: three hypotheses
• China’s connection with the world: trade and finance
• Structural features of China’s economy:
export/investment/consumption
• Comments on length of global slowdown and impact on China
• Comments on China’s stimulus package: state vs non-state sector
GDP per capita, China and W Europe, 400-1998

资料来源：Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective


GDP as % of World Total (1700-2003)

1700 1820 1952 1978 2003

China 22.3 32.9 5.2 4.9 15.1

India 24.4 16 4 3.3 5.5

Japan 4.1 3 3.4 7.6 6.6

Europe 24.9 26.6 29.3 27.6 21.1

USA 0.1 1.8 27.5 21.6 20.6

Russia 4.4 5.4 9.2 9 3.8

资料来源：安格斯•麦迪森，《中国经济的中长期表现》，上海人民出版社，2008年，36页
GDP per capita, China and UK, 1700-1998

资料来源：Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective


GDP per capita, China and USA, 1700-1998

资料来源：Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective


（20 years）
Fastest Growth Rates in Asia（ ）

average

12.45 10.32 6.7 10.53 7.06 1.78 3.51 6.59 9.72 9.68

China 10.01 15.12 2.06 5.27 0.29 6.57 9.03 10.68 12.41 15.15 8.25

3.86 4 4.25 4.38 10.46 6.65 5.19 1.3 5.12 5.9

India 7.25 7.35 7.84 4.8 6.51 6.06 4.37 5.79 3.53 8.98 5.68

12.46 11.59 7.37 5.65 8.6 7.52 7.31 5.83 9.12 13.13

Japan 12.04 8.92 8.47 11.67 5.82 10.64 11.08 12.88 12.48 10.71 9.66

7.71 5.24 3.88 1.99 5.05 3.03 8.81 8.63 6.02 12.04

S. Korea 7.27 12.76 15.16 8.59 9.76 7.31 16.92 8.7 6.64 11.76 8.36

8.27 8.47 5.3 7.04 8.61 9.38 5.38 7.21 8.49 13.86

Taiwan 12.74 6.88 10.08 11.27 8.44 9.04 12.57 13.98 15.66 10.74 9.67

6.63 17.48 15.71 8.57 14.47 1.72 1.7 3.33 11.29 9.18

Hong Kong 7.08 10.33 12.36 2.33 0.33 16.24 11.73 8.5 11.52 10.12 9.03

7.54 11.13 11.84 13.88 13.69 13.72 12.52 13.41 11.54 6.76

Singapore 3.97 7.14 7.76 8.62 9.25 9.7 9.58 6.85 8.18 8.34 9.77
Big Technology Breakthroughs in History

资料来源：Kremer（1990，683）also adapted from Fogel (2003).


Where is China? (GDP per capita)
USA=1

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