Monthly

Gold Compass

January 2025

Ronald-Peter Stöferle
Mark J. Valek
 In Our Partners We Trust

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Table of Contents:
1. Gold
2. Silver
3. Miner
4. Macro
5. Long Term Charts
6. Proprietary Models

3
1. Gold

“I view gold as the primary global currency. It is the only

currency, along with silver, that does not require a
counterparty signature.”

Alan Greenspan

4
Gold Performance in Major Currencies, 2000–2024
Year USD EUR GBP AUD CAD CNY JPY CHF INR Average
2000 -5.3% 1.2% 2.0% 11.3% -1.9% -5.4% 5.8% -4.2% 1.4% 0.6%
2001 2.4% 8.3% 5.3% 11.4% 8.8% 2.4% 18.0% 5.5% 5.8% 7.6%
2002 24.4% 5.6% 12.2% 13.3% 22.9% 24.4% 12.2% 3.5% 23.7% 15.8%
2003 19.6% -0.2% 8.0% -10.7% -1.3% 19.6% 8.1% 7.4% 13.9% 7.2%
2004 5.6% -1.9% -1.7% 1.5% -2.0% 5.6% 0.8% -3.1% 0.1% 0.5%
2005 18.1% 35.1% 31.6% 25.9% 14.1% 15.1% 35.9% 36.3% 22.8% 26.1%
2006 23.0% 10.4% 8.1% 14.3% 23.3% 19.0% 24.2% 14.1% 20.7% 17.5%
2007 30.9% 18.5% 29.2% 18.0% 12.0% 22.5% 22.5% 21.8% 16.9% 21.4%
2008 5.4% 10.0% 43.1% 30.5% 28.7% -1.5% -14.2% -0.8% 30.0% 14.6%
2009 24.8% 21.8% 12.9% -1.6% 7.9% 24.8% 27.9% 21.1% 19.2% 17.6%
2010 29.5% 38.6% 34.2% 13.6% 22.8% 25.1% 13.2% 16.8% 24.8% 24.3%
2011 10.2% 13.9% 10.6% 10.3% 12.7% 5.2% 4.5% 10.7% 30.7% 12.1%
2012 7.1% 5.0% 2.5% 5.3% 4.2% 6.0% 20.7% 4.5% 11.1% 7.4%
2013 -28.0% -30.9% -29.4% -16.1% -23.0% -30.1% -12.6% -29.8% -19.1% -24.3%
2014 -1.8% 11.6% 4.4% 7.3% 7.5% 0.7% 11.6% 9.4% 0.2% 5.6%
2015 -10.4% -0.1% -5.3% 0.6% 6.8% -6.2% -9.9% -9.7% -5.9% -4.5%
2016 8.5% 12.1% 29.6% 9.6% 5.3% 16.1% 5.4% 10.3% 11.4% 12.0%
2017 13.1% -0.9% 3.3% 4.6% 5.9% 6.0% 9.0% 8.3% 6.3% 6.2%
2018 -1.5% 3.0% 4.3% 8.9% 6.8% 4.1% -4.2% -0.8% 7.3% 3.1%
2019 18.3% 21.0% 13.7% 18.8% 12.6% 19.7% 17.2% 16.6% 21.3% 17.7%
2020 25.0% 14.8% 21.3% 14.1% 22.6% 17.2% 18.8% 14.3% 28.0% 19.6%
2021 -3.6% 3.6% -2.6% 2.2% -4.3% -6.1% 7.5% -0.6% -1.7% -0.6%
2022 -0.2% 6.0% 11.6% 6.3% 7.0% 8.3% 13.7% 1.1% 10.8% 7.2%
2023 13.1% 9.7% 7.4% 13.1% 10.5% 16.3% 21.6% 2.9% 13.7% 12.0%
2024 27.2% 35.6% 29.4% 40.0% 38.1% 30.8% 41.7% 37.1% 30.8% 34.5%
CAGR 9.7% 9.5% 10.8% 9.9% 9.6% 9.1% 11.6% 7.1% 12.8% 10.0%

Source: Reuters Eikon (as of 12/31/2024), Incrementum AG

5
Annualized Performance of Gold, in USD, if Bought on the Last Day of the
Month and Held until 12/31/2024 (Holding Period ≥ 1 Year)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2000 9.35% 9.25% 9.48% 9.60% 9.66% 9.41% 9.65% 9.67% 9.76% 9.95% 9.90% 9.90%
2001 10.05% 10.06% 10.26% 10.19% 10.20% 10.15% 10.26% 10.16% 9.90% 10.15% 10.28% 10.24%
2002 10.22% 10.02% 9.96% 9.91% 9.67% 9.89% 10.10% 10.00% 9.86% 10.00% 10.02% 9.64%
2003 9.38% 9.67% 9.89% 9.90% 9.58% 9.88% 9.79% 9.55% 9.45% 9.50% 9.36% 9.18%
2004 9.38% 9.50% 9.15% 9.70% 9.63% 9.69% 9.77% 9.57% 9.50% 9.41% 9.17% 9.36%
2005 9.61% 9.48% 9.61% 9.57% 9.85% 9.65% 9.76% 9.74% 9.36% 9.45% 9.15% 8.92%
2006 8.42% 8.53% 8.35% 7.73% 7.86% 8.18% 8.02% 8.13% 8.44% 8.40% 8.04% 8.19%
2007 8.07% 7.96% 8.06% 7.96% 8.16% 8.31% 8.22% 8.17% 7.58% 7.20% 7.34% 6.98%
2008 6.36% 6.08% 6.49% 6.85% 6.77% 6.53% 6.64% 7.30% 7.03% 8.30% 7.54% 7.08%
2009 6.76% 6.67% 6.90% 7.18% 6.53% 6.95% 6.78% 6.85% 6.48% 6.26% 5.45% 5.99%
2010 6.12% 5.93% 5.99% 5.61% 5.42% 5.30% 5.70% 5.33% 5.00% 4.75% 4.64% 4.49%
2011 4.99% 4.58% 4.51% 3.86% 4.03% 4.23% 3.63% 2.77% 3.69% 3.29% 3.17% 4.06%
2012 3.24% 3.46% 3.62% 3.66% 4.23% 4.05% 3.99% 3.63% 3.26% 3.53% 3.58% 3.81%
2013 3.90% 4.38% 4.32% 5.05% 5.66% 6.79% 6.18% 5.73% 6.25% 6.32% 6.90% 7.33%
2014 7.08% 6.50% 6.88% 6.87% 7.25% 6.71% 7.12% 7.14% 7.85% 8.23% 8.37% 8.29%
2015 7.48% 8.17% 8.51% 8.58% 8.60% 8.85% 9.72% 9.40% 9.70% 9.50% 10.45% 10.58%
2016 10.04% 8.88% 9.02% 8.50% 9.39% 8.40% 8.21% 8.71% 8.73% 9.22% 10.48% 10.84%
2017 10.26% 9.94% 10.06% 9.95% 10.06% 10.50% 10.29% 9.80% 10.42% 10.64% 10.73% 10.52%
2018 10.15% 10.61% 10.66% 10.92% 11.28% 12.05% 12.63% 13.14% 13.46% 13.31% 13.39% 12.67%
2019 12.30% 12.61% 13.11% 13.45% 13.32% 11.97% 12.10% 10.78% 11.64% 11.24% 12.16% 11.58%
2020 10.73% 11.00% 11.40% 10.02% 9.56% 9.00% 6.65% 6.84% 8.09% 8.36% 10.01% 8.45%
2021 9.39% 11.42% 12.15% 11.36% 9.32% 11.91% 11.42% 11.72% 13.14% 12.98% 13.54% 12.79%
2022 13.87% 11.90% 11.66% 12.95% 14.80% 16.09% 17.82% 20.12% 22.58% 24.46% 20.85% 19.92%
2023 17.45% 21.82% 17.87% 18.06% 20.14% 23.16% 22.68% 25.43% 32.35% 27.14% 26.39% 27.21%

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

6
Correlation Table for Gold, 12/31/2024

DXY GDX S&P 500 VIX CRB TR WTI Copper Bitcoin

15D -0.48 0.90 0.65 -0.08 0.01 -0.12 0.10 0.39
30D -0.02 0.81 0.42 -0.05 0.39 0.40 0.15 0.43
Trading Days

60D -0.37 0.81 0.16 0.00 0.41 0.32 0.53 -0.02

90D -0.39 0.82 0.20 -0.07 0.42 0.31 0.54 0.04
120D -0.32 0.82 0.30 -0.15 0.36 0.27 0.48 0.10
150D -0.37 0.83 0.25 -0.09 0.39 0.27 0.53 0.08
180D -0.36 0.83 0.25 -0.10 0.39 0.26 0.53 0.09
52 Week High -0.02 0.92 0.54 0.34 0.74 0.57 0.83 0.51
Date 12/31/2024 6/20/2024 1/26/2024 7/15/2024 12/11/2024 12/11/2024 6/26/2024 9/13/2024
30 Day

52 Week Low -0.76 0.69 -0.24 -0.49 -0.17 -0.21 -0.05 -0.41
Date 11/19/2024 4/18/2024 11/6/2024 2/13/2024 2/29/2024 2/29/2024 2/12/2024 11/22/2024
% Time (+) 0% 100% 86% 38% 90% 85% 98% 68%
% Time (-) 100% 0% 14% 62% 10% 15% 2% 32%
52 Week High -0.27 0.86 0.38 0.29 0.47 0.35 0.64 0.24
Date 10/22/2024 9/20/2024 11/4/2024 2/12/2024 12/17/2024 12/5/2024 11/20/2024 10/31/2024
90Day

52 Week Low -0.59 0.75 0.01 -0.28 0.06 -0.03 0.19 -0.17
Date 3/26/2024 1/11/2024 2/22/2024 11/1/2024 3/27/2024 3/20/2024 4/17/2024 1/12/2024
% Time (+) 0% 100% 100% 30% 100% 96% 100% 78%
% Time (-) 100% 0% 0% 70% 0% 4% 0% 22%

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

7
Gold, in USD, 01/1970–12/2024
3,000
2,790
2,750

2,500

2,250
2,073

2,000 1,920

1,750

1,500 1,614

1,250
1,031
1,000
835 1,045

750
681
500
196
250
254
102
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

8
Gold in USD, and EUR, 01/2023–12/2024
2,800

2,600

2,400

2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600
01/2023 04/2023 07/2023 10/2023 01/2024 04/2024 07/2024 10/2024

USD EUR

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

9
Gold, in USD, and Incrementum World Gold Price (IWGP), 01/2015–12/2024
4,200

3,800

3,400

3,000

2,600

2,200

1,800

1,400

1,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

USD IWGP

Source: World Bank, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

10
COMEX Gold Deliveries, in Thousands of Troy Ounces, 01/2007–12/2024
6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

COMEX Gold Deliveries 12 Month Average

Source: Nick Laird, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

11
Gold (Nominal), and Gold (US CPI Adjusted – November 2024), in
USD, 01/1970–11/2024
3,000
USD 2,742

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Recession Gold (Nominal) Gold (US CPI Adjusted – November 2024)

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

12
Gold in Various Developed Market Currencies, 2024
50%
45.1% 45.8%
45% 43.9%
42.7%
41.7%
39.7% 40.0%
40% 38.1% 38.4%
37.1%
35.6% 35.9%
35% 33.5%
31.7%
29.4% 30.0%
30% 28.2%
27.2%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
USD ILS GBP ISK SGD PLN EUR TWD CHF CAD CZK SEK AUD JPY NOK NZD KRW HUF

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

13
Gold in Various Developed Market Currencies below All-Time High
0%
-0.2% -0.2%
-0.6%
-1%

-2% -1.8%
-2.2%
-3% -2.6% -2.6% -2.6%
-2.8%
-3.0%
-3.2% -3.1%
-3.4%
-3.5%
-4%
-3.9%
-4.3%
-5%

-6% -5.8%

-7%

-8%
-8.3%
-9%
ILS USD ISK PLN JPY TWD CZK GBP SEK SGD HUF EUR CAD NOK CHF AUD NZD KRW

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

14
Gold in Various Emerging Market Currencies, 2024
140%

121.5%
120%
109.1%

100%

84.1%
80%

61.8% 62.1% 62.1%

60% 56.2%
52.5%
43.4% 44.6%
40% 33.4%
30.8% 30.8% 31.2% 33.0%
26.9% 28.9%
23.8%
20%

0%
MYR THB PEN CNY INR ZAR IDR PHP CLP COP TRY MXN RUB ARS BRL VES EGP NGN

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

15
Gold in Various Emerging Market Currencies below All-Time High
0% 0.0%
-0.2% -0.1%
-0.5%

-2%
-2.2%
-2.8% -2.7% -2.7%
-3.1%
-4% -3.4% -3.4%
-3.8%
-4.3% -4.2%

-6%
-6.1% -6.1% -6.0%

-8%

-10%

-12% -11.8%

-14%
NGN PEN PHP COP THB INR MYR IDR CNY EGP CLP TRY MXN ARS BRL ZAR RUB VES

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

16
Monthly Gold ETF Flows by Region (lhs), in Tonnes, and Gold (rhs), in
USD, 01/2004–11/2024
4,500 3,000

4,000
2,500
3,500

3,000 2,000

2,500
1,500
2,000

1,500 1,000

1,000
500
500

0 0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

North America Europe Asia Other Gold

Source: World Gold Council, Incrementum AG

17
Monthly Gold ETF Flows by Region (lhs), in Tonnes, and Gold (rhs), in
USD, 01/2004–11/2024
250 3,000

200
2,500
150

100 2,000

50
1,500
0

-50 1,000

-100
500
-150

-200 0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

North America Europe Asia Other Gold

Source: World Gold Council, Incrementum AG

18
Gold/Silver Ratio, 01/2015–12/2024
130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Recession Gold/Silver Ratio

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

19
2. Silver

“Trading silver is a tough way to make an easy living.”

Rich Ross

20
Silver Performance in Major Currencies, 2000–2024
Year USD EUR GBP AUD CAD CNY JPY CHF INR Average
2000 -15.0% -9.1% -8.4% 0.0% -11.9% -15.0% -5.0% -13.9% -8.9% -9.7%
2001 0.4% 6.2% 3.3% 9.2% 6.7% 0.4% 15.7% 3.5% 3.8% 5.5%
2002 3.3% -12.4% -6.8% -6.0% 2.0% 3.3% -6.9% -14.1% 2.7% -3.9%
2003 24.6% 3.9% 12.5% -7.0% 2.7% 24.6% 12.6% 11.9% 18.6% 11.6%
2004 14.5% 6.3% 6.6% 10.0% 6.2% 14.5% 9.3% 5.1% 8.6% 9.0%
2005 29.7% 48.5% 44.6% 38.4% 25.4% 26.5% 49.3% 49.8% 35.0% 38.6%
2006 46.1% 31.1% 28.4% 35.8% 46.4% 41.3% 47.4% 35.5% 43.3% 39.5%
2007 14.8% 3.8% 13.3% 3.4% -1.8% 7.4% 7.4% 6.8% 2.5% 6.4%
2008 -23.5% -20.2% 3.9% -5.3% -6.6% -28.5% -37.7% -28.0% -5.6% -16.8%
2009 48.9% 45.4% 34.7% 17.5% 28.8% 49.0% 52.7% 44.6% 42.3% 40.4%
2010 83.4% 96.2% 89.9% 60.8% 73.8% 77.0% 60.2% 65.3% 76.6% 75.9%
2011 -10.3% -7.2% -9.9% -10.2% -8.2% -14.3% -14.9% -9.9% 6.4% -8.7%
2012 9.5% 7.3% 4.8% 7.6% 6.5% 8.4% 23.4% 6.9% 13.6% 9.8%
2013 -36.0% -38.5% -37.2% -25.4% -31.4% -37.8% -22.3% -37.5% -28.0% -32.7%
2014 -19.3% -8.3% -14.2% -11.9% -11.7% -17.3% -8.3% -10.2% -17.7% -13.2%
2015 -11.7% -1.6% -6.7% -0.9% 5.2% -7.6% -11.2% -11.0% -7.2% -5.9%
2016 15.2% 19.0% 37.6% 16.3% 11.8% 23.2% 11.9% 17.1% 18.3% 18.9%
2017 6.4% -6.8% -2.9% -1.6% -0.4% -0.3% 2.5% 1.8% -0.1% -0.2%
2018 -8.7% -4.4% -3.2% 1.0% -1.0% -3.5% -11.2% -8.0% -0.5% -4.4%
2019 15.2% 17.8% 10.8% 15.7% 9.7% 16.6% 14.2% 13.6% 18.1% 14.6%
2020 47.8% 35.7% 43.4% 34.9% 44.9% 38.6% 40.5% 35.2% 51.3% 41.4%
2021 -11.7% -5.2% -10.8% -6.5% -12.4% -14.1% -1.6% -9.0% -10.0% -9.0%
2022 3.0% 9.4% 15.2% 9.8% 10.5% 11.8% 17.3% 4.4% 14.4% 10.6%
2023 -0.9% -3.8% -5.8% -0.8% -3.1% 2.0% 6.7% -9.7% -0.3% -1.7%
2024 21.5% 29.5% 23.6% 33.8% 31.9% 25.0% 35.4% 31.0% 25.0% 28.5%
CAGR 7.2% 7.1% 8.4% 7.5% 7.2% 6.7% 9.2% 4.8% 10.3% 7.6%

Source: Reuters Eikon (as of 12/31/2024), Incrementum AG

21
Annualized Performance of Silver, in USD, if Bought on the Last Day of the
Month and Held until 12/31/2024 (Holding Period ≥ 1 Year)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2000 7.09% 7.26% 7.34% 7.40% 7.47% 7.40% 7.46% 7.51% 7.62% 7.77% 7.85% 7.96%
2001 7.81% 8.14% 8.36% 8.35% 8.31% 8.44% 8.55% 8.64% 8.19% 8.67% 8.76% 8.30%
2002 8.74% 8.48% 8.38% 8.51% 8.07% 8.28% 8.55% 8.73% 8.69% 8.75% 8.86% 8.54%
2003 8.50% 8.79% 8.97% 8.80% 8.97% 8.97% 8.40% 8.48% 8.49% 8.60% 8.33% 7.83%
2004 7.62% 7.28% 6.45% 7.88% 7.80% 8.13% 7.56% 7.42% 7.34% 7.09% 6.82% 7.51%
2005 7.59% 7.17% 7.33% 7.56% 7.21% 7.51% 7.40% 7.75% 7.30% 7.27% 6.79% 6.45%
2006 5.87% 5.93% 5.04% 4.09% 4.61% 5.38% 5.23% 4.51% 5.22% 4.84% 4.11% 4.59%
2007 4.33% 4.09% 4.43% 4.45% 4.46% 4.95% 4.77% 5.18% 4.39% 4.11% 4.34% 4.02%
2008 3.23% 2.27% 3.14% 3.30% 3.31% 3.13% 3.03% 4.73% 5.54% 6.91% 6.66% 6.04%
2009 5.33% 5.12% 5.23% 5.58% 3.97% 4.99% 4.86% 4.41% 3.70% 3.85% 3.03% 3.66%
2010 3.97% 3.87% 3.47% 3.05% 3.09% 3.10% 3.35% 2.84% 2.02% 1.11% 0.20% -0.47%
2011 0.21% -1.13% -1.90% -3.64% -2.09% -1.34% -2.37% -2.68% -0.26% -1.27% -0.97% 0.32%
2012 -1.06% -1.40% -0.86% -0.55% 0.34% 0.41% 0.27% -0.75% -1.43% -0.89% -1.20% -0.40%
2013 -0.70% 0.11% 0.16% 1.50% 2.29% 3.42% 3.36% 1.85% 2.60% 2.53% 3.39% 3.68%
2014 3.86% 2.90% 3.62% 3.95% 4.20% 3.09% 3.42% 3.91% 5.34% 5.89% 6.43% 6.31%
2015 5.35% 5.79% 5.83% 6.22% 5.88% 6.59% 7.38% 7.58% 7.72% 7.01% 8.22% 8.52%
2016 8.23% 7.79% 7.44% 5.73% 7.13% 5.25% 4.27% 5.41% 5.11% 6.05% 7.18% 7.71%
2017 6.51% 5.99% 6.12% 7.00% 7.00% 7.69% 7.58% 7.01% 7.93% 7.95% 8.29% 7.91%
2018 7.68% 8.63% 8.82% 8.95% 9.02% 9.42% 10.17% 11.49% 11.53% 12.17% 12.41% 10.95%
2019 10.42% 11.13% 11.89% 12.34% 13.03% 12.23% 11.19% 8.87% 10.62% 9.43% 10.96% 10.12%
2020 10.05% 12.05% 16.51% 15.03% 11.08% 10.90% 3.91% 0.53% 5.27% 4.93% 6.18% 2.30%
2021 1.73% 2.14% 4.60% 3.01% 0.81% 2.92% 3.75% 5.86% 8.42% 6.22% 7.96% 7.46%
2022 9.04% 6.09% 5.73% 9.37% 12.02% 15.26% 15.65% 22.54% 20.44% 20.90% 13.46% 9.76%
2023 10.85% 19.24% 10.95% 8.93% 13.96% 17.22% 11.43% 13.34% 23.58% 21.98% 13.18% 21.52%

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

22
Correlation Table for Silver, 12/31/2024

DXY SIL S&P 500 VIX CRB TR WTI Copper Bitcoin

15D -0.65 0.82 0.80 -0.31 -0.07 -0.20 0.80 0.40
30D -0.24 0.78 0.52 -0.23 0.33 0.36 0.43 0.22
Trading Days

60D -0.40 0.80 0.21 -0.14 0.34 0.23 0.32 0.00

90D -0.41 0.83 0.32 -0.25 0.45 0.34 0.37 0.13
120D -0.29 0.79 0.41 -0.29 0.42 0.28 0.38 0.17
150D -0.31 0.79 0.35 -0.19 0.46 0.30 0.31 0.13
180D -0.33 0.81 0.33 -0.17 0.47 0.31 0.27 0.14
52 Week High 0.05 0.91 0.71 0.40 0.76 0.58 0.70 0.58
Date 8/16/2024 6/24/2024 9/11/2024 7/15/2024 6/13/2024 7/3/2024 1/19/2024 9/13/2024
30 Day

52 Week Low -0.67 0.61 -0.16 -0.63 0.01 -0.07 -0.12 -0.32
Date 1/5/2024 8/2/2024 12/13/2024 9/26/2024 2/14/2024 2/14/2024 4/29/2024 12/17/2024
% Time (+) 2% 100% 91% 31% 100% 93% 90% 72%
% Time (-) 98% 0% 9% 69% 0% 7% 10% 28%
52 Week High -0.20 0.84 0.48 0.16 0.59 0.40 0.47 0.27
Date 10/22/2024 11/26/2024 10/31/2024 1/12/2024 9/16/2024 9/25/2024 3/25/2024 11/5/2024
90Day

52 Week Low -0.54 0.73 0.10 -0.36 0.07 -0.01 0.02 -0.14
Date 4/3/2024 4/29/2024 7/16/2024 10/31/2024 2/29/2024 3/20/2024 6/26/2024 1/16/2024
% Time (+) 0% 100% 100% 27% 100% 98% 100% 82%
% Time (-) 100% 0% 0% 73% 0% 2% 0% 18%

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

23
Silver, in USD, 01/1970–12/2024
55
49.51
50 48.00

45

40
34.87
35
30.03
30

25
21.24

20

17.53
15

10 11.62
6.70
8.42
5
3.82 3.53
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

24
Silver, in USD, and Incrementum World Silver Price (IWSP),
01/2015–12/2024
60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

USD IWSP

Source: SD Bullion, World Bank, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

25
COMEX Silver Deliveries, in Millions of Troy Ounces, 01/2007–12/2024
90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

COMEX Silver Deliveries 12 Month Average

Source: Nick Laird, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

26
Silver (Nominal), and Silver (US CPI Adjusted – November 2024), in
USD, 01/1970–11/2024
160
USD 147.71

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Recession Silver (Nominal) Silver (US CPI Adjusted – November 2024)

Source: Nick Laird, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

27
Performance of Silver Relative to Gold (Monthly), 01/2015–12/2024
30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Outperformance Underperformance

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

28
3. Miner

“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just

don’t realize it at the time.”

Shelby Cullom Davis

29
Monthly Performance of Bullion and Miners, 01/2023–12/2024

Gold HUI GDX GDXJ Silver SIL SILJ

Jan-23 5.67% 11.65% 11.72% 9.26% -1.11% 7.53% 6.07%

Feb-23 -5.22% -15.27% -14.08% -13.25% -11.76% -11.98% -13.58%
Mar-23 7.70% 17.87% 17.59% 16.90% 15.11% 15.23% 14.99%
Apr-23 1.11% 1.74% 3.80% 0.63% 4.00% -2.73% -2.43%
May-23 -1.37% -7.62% -7.95% -6.57% -6.23% -9.74% -10.69%
Jun-23 -2.18% -2.85% -2.59% -3.98% -3.09% -3.63% -3.20%
Jul-23 2.32% 3.47% 4.32% 5.61% 8.87% 6.81% 10.02%
Aug-23 -1.24% -6.06% -6.84% -4.43% -1.35% -4.54% -7.36%
Sep-23 -4.71% -9.06% -8.03% -10.45% -9.31% -9.81% -11.30%
Oct-23 7.27% 5.19% 4.09% 3.44% 3.34% 0.54% -0.59%
Nov-23 2.68% 10.88% 11.82% 15.57% 10.26% 15.31% 16.13%
Dec-23 1.32% 0.88% -0.99% -1.61% -5.90% 2.38% 2.15%
Jan-24 -1.23% -10.13% -9.90% -10.84% -3.55% -10.47% -12.80%
Feb-24 0.30% -6.70% -5.65% -5.68% -1.08% -9.06% -8.14%
Mar-24 9.26% 21.17% 19.95% 21.52% 10.17% 18.87% 23.97%
Apr-24 2.38% 4.53% 4.78% 4.44% 5.23% 11.36% 10.07%
May-24 1.81% 8.06% 6.55% 11.54% 15.58% 13.44% 14.73%
Jun-24 -0.05% -4.07% -3.88% -6.67% -4.11% -10.09% -9.73%
Jul-24 5.26% 13.89% 11.79% 9.62% -0.30% 10.48% 11.57%
Aug-24 2.24% 2.67% 1.82% -0.43% -0.67% -5.02% -5.15%
Sep-24 5.25% 2.05% 3.11% 6.18% 7.99% 7.21% 7.60%
Oct-24 4.15% 0.49% 1.31% 5.68% 4.82% 10.17% 6.83%
Nov-24 -3.29% -6.25% -6.64% -7.56% -6.28% -6.03% -13.87%
Dec-24 -1.12% -8.48% -9.96% -10.34% -5.64% -12.55% -16.27%

CAGR 19.9% 9.5% 8.8% 9.5% 9.8% 6.2% -3.0%

MAX 9.3% 21.2% 20.0% 21.5% 15.6% 18.9% 24.0%
MIN -5.2% -15.3% -14.1% -13.2% -11.8% -12.6% -16.3%

Current Price 2,624 275.6 33.9 42.75 28.87 31.77 9.93

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

30
GDX/Gold Ratio (top), and GDXJ/GDX Ratio (bottom), 01/2015–12/2024
0.026 GDX/Gold Ratio

0.022

0.018

0.014

0.010
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
1.8 GDXJ/GDX Ratio

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

31
SIL/Silver Ratio (top), and SILJ/SIL Ratio (bottom), 01/2015–12/2024
3.0 SIL/Silver Ratio

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
0.42 SILJ/SIL Ratio

0.38

0.34

0.30

0.26
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

32
4. Macro (Inflation, Markets, Positioning, etc.)

“We now understand better how little we understand

about inflation.”

Jerome Powell

33
Inflation Heat Map (Developed Markets), yoy, 12/2022–11/2024

USA CPI Canada CPI Euro Area HICP Germany HICP France HICP Italy HICP Switzerland CPI Great Britain CPI Japan CPI South Korea CPI Australia CPI

Dec-22 6.45% 6.32% 9.20% 9.61% 6.73% 12.34% 2.84% 10.53% 4.00% 5.02% 7.83%
Jan-23 6.41% 5.92% 8.64% 9.17% 7.04% 10.67% 3.28% 10.05% 4.39% 4.98% 7.56%
Feb-23 6.04% 5.25% 8.50% 9.27% 7.29% 9.84% 3.37% 10.42% 3.28% 4.66% 7.29%
Mar-23 4.98% 4.30% 6.88% 7.75% 6.68% 8.09% 2.95% 10.06% 3.26% 4.17% 7.02%
Apr-23 4.93% 4.41% 6.95% 7.61% 6.89% 8.59% 2.57% 8.66% 3.55% 3.69% 6.69%
May-23 4.05% 3.36% 6.09% 6.26% 6.01% 7.99% 2.16% 8.68% 3.24% 3.38% 6.35%
Jun-23 2.97% 2.81% 5.50% 6.77% 5.33% 6.75% 1.71% 7.95% 3.34% 2.73% 6.03%
Jul-23 3.18% 3.27% 5.28% 6.47% 5.07% 6.29% 1.61% 6.83% 3.32% 2.35% 5.81%
Aug-23 3.67% 4.00% 5.22% 6.44% 5.72% 5.54% 1.55% 6.66% 3.12% 3.36% 5.59%
Sep-23 3.70% 3.80% 4.31% 4.34% 5.66% 5.62% 1.65% 6.65% 3.01% 3.70% 5.37%
Oct-23 3.24% 3.12% 2.88% 3.00% 4.55% 1.83% 1.69% 4.60% 3.28% 3.77% 4.93%
Nov-23 3.14% 3.12% 2.37% 2.27% 3.86% 0.58% 1.44% 3.94% 2.89% 3.31% 4.49%
Dec-23 3.35% 3.40% 2.90% 3.77% 4.10% 0.50% 1.71% 3.99% 2.59% 3.18% 4.05%
Jan-24 3.09% 2.86% 2.75% 3.10% 3.40% 0.92% 1.28% 3.98% 2.10% 2.82% 3.91%
Feb-24 3.15% 2.78% 2.57% 2.75% 3.21% 0.84% 1.17% 3.41% 2.79% 3.13% 3.76%
Mar-24 3.48% 2.90% 2.41% 2.32% 2.41% 1.25% 1.04% 3.23% 2.68% 3.10% 3.62%
Apr-24 3.36% 2.69% 2.36% 2.38% 2.37% 0.91% 1.37% 2.33% 2.47% 2.92% 3.69%
May-24 3.27% 2.87% 2.55% 2.79% 2.60% 0.82% 1.39% 1.99% 2.85% 2.67% 3.75%
Jun-24 2.97% 2.67% 2.51% 2.54% 2.54% 0.90% 1.33% 1.98% 2.85% 2.41% 3.81%
Jul-24 2.89% 2.53% 2.58% 2.60% 2.70% 1.58% 1.29% 2.23% 2.74% 2.55% 3.48%
Aug-24 2.53% 1.95% 2.15% 2.04% 2.19% 1.25% 1.06% 2.22% 3.02% 2.01% 3.14%
Sep-24 2.44% 1.64% 1.74% 1.81% 1.44% 0.74% 0.84% 1.68% 2.54% 1.60% 2.81%
Oct-24 2.60% 2.02% 1.99% 2.36% 1.59% 0.98% 0.62% 2.28% 2.24% 1.25%
Nov-24 2.75% 1.89% 2.23% 2.38% 1.68% 1.48% 0.73% 2.62% 2.90% 1.53%

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

34
Inflation Heat Map (Emerging Markets), yoy, 12/2022–11/2024

Argentina CPI Brazil CPI Mexico CPI South Africa CPI Nigeria CPI Turkey CPI Russia CPI China CPI India CPI Indonesia CPI Thailand CPI

Dec-22 94.80% 5.79% 7.82% 7.20% 21.34% 64.27% 11.92% 1.80% 5.72% 5.41% 5.89%
Jan-23 98.80% 5.77% 7.91% 6.89% 21.82% 57.68% 11.81% 2.10% 6.52% 5.10% 5.02%
Feb-23 102.50% 5.60% 7.62% 7.04% 21.91% 55.18% 10.96% 1.00% 6.44% 5.38% 3.79%
Mar-23 104.30% 4.65% 6.85% 7.07% 22.04% 50.51% 3.51% 0.70% 5.66% 5.01% 2.83%
Apr-23 108.80% 4.18% 6.25% 6.84% 22.22% 43.68% 2.29% 0.10% 4.70% 4.35% 2.67%
May-23 114.20% 3.94% 5.84% 6.30% 22.41% 39.59% 2.50% 0.20% 4.31% 4.09% 0.53%
Jun-23 115.60% 3.16% 5.06% 5.37% 22.79% 38.21% 3.25% 0.00% 4.87% 3.54% 0.23%
Jul-23 113.40% 3.99% 4.79% 4.73% 24.08% 47.83% 4.31% -0.30% 7.44% 3.11% 0.38%
Aug-23 124.40% 4.61% 4.64% 4.81% 25.80% 58.94% 5.16% 0.10% 6.83% 3.45% 0.88%
Sep-23 138.30% 5.19% 4.45% 5.37% 26.72% 61.53% 6.03% 0.00% 5.02% 2.29% 0.30%
Oct-23 142.70% 4.82% 4.26% 5.92% 27.33% 61.36% 6.67% -0.20% 4.87% 2.64% -0.31%
Nov-23 160.90% 4.68% 4.32% 5.52% 28.20% 61.98% 7.48% -0.50% 5.55% 0.00% -0.44%
Dec-23 211.40% 4.62% 4.66% 5.13% 28.92% 64.77% 7.42% -0.30% 5.69% 2.81% -0.83%
Jan-24 254.20% 4.51% 4.88% 5.32% 29.90% 64.86% 7.44% -0.80% 5.10% 2.57% -1.11%
Feb-24 276.20% 4.50% 4.40% 5.56% 31.70% 67.07% 7.71% 0.70% 5.09% 2.75% -0.77%
Mar-24 287.90% 3.93% 4.42% 5.32% 33.20% 68.50% 7.72% 0.10% 4.85% 3.05% -0.47%
Apr-24 289.40% 3.69% 4.65% 5.21% 33.69% 69.80% 7.86% 0.30% 4.83% 3.00% 0.19%
May-24 276.40% 3.93% 4.69% 5.20% 33.95% 75.45% 8.30% 0.30% 4.80% 2.84% 1.54%
Jun-24 271.50% 4.23% 4.98% 5.10% 34.19% 71.60% 8.60% 0.20% 5.08% 2.51% 0.62%
Jul-24 263.40% 4.50% 5.57% 4.60% 33.40% 61.78% 9.13% 0.50% 3.60% 2.13% 0.83%
Aug-24 236.70% 4.24% 4.99% 4.41% 32.15% 51.97% 9.06% 0.60% 3.65% 2.12% 0.35%
Sep-24 209.00% 4.42% 4.58% 3.85% 32.70% 49.38% 8.62% 0.40% 5.49% 1.84% 0.61%
Oct-24 193.00% 4.76% 4.76% 2.84% 33.88% 48.58% 8.54% 0.30% 6.21% 1.71% 0.83%
Nov-24 166.00% 4.87% 4.55% 2.93% 34.60% 47.09% 8.90% 0.20% 5.48% 1.55% 0.95%

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

35
Inflation Heat Map (United States), yoy, 12/2022–11/2024
Cleveland Fed Uni. Michigan Uni. Michigan
Case-Shiller
CPI Core CPI PCE Core PCE PPI Core PPI US Import Prices 1Y Inflation 1Y Inflation 5Y Inflation
US National HPI
Expectations Expectations Expectations
Dec-22 6.45% 5.68% 5.51% 4.95% 6.41% 5.71% 3.20% 5.65% 2.87% 4.30% 3.00%
Jan-23 6.41% 5.54% 5.53% 4.95% 5.77% 5.02% 0.86% 3.85% 2.68% 3.90% 2.90%
Feb-23 6.04% 5.49% 5.21% 4.86% 4.76% 4.63% -1.12% 2.24% 2.61% 4.20% 2.90%
Mar-23 4.98% 5.56% 4.42% 4.77% 2.70% 3.34% -4.70% 0.87% 2.07% 3.60% 2.90%
Apr-23 4.93% 5.52% 4.46% 4.78% 2.30% 3.11% -4.88% 0.02% 2.65% 4.70% 3.00%
May-23 4.05% 5.33% 3.98% 4.71% 1.18% 2.79% -5.74% -0.27% 2.65% 4.20% 3.10%
Jun-23 2.97% 4.86% 3.26% 4.37% 0.31% 2.54% -6.13% 0.10% 1.37% 3.30% 3.00%
Jul-23 3.18% 4.71% 3.37% 4.27% 1.16% 2.73% -4.78% 1.10% 2.47% 3.40% 3.00%
Aug-23 3.67% 4.41% 3.39% 3.78% 1.88% 2.51% -2.97% 2.69% 2.61% 3.50% 3.00%
Sep-23 3.70% 4.14% 3.42% 3.66% 1.80% 2.33% -1.47% 4.06% 2.81% 3.20% 2.80%
Oct-23 3.24% 4.02% 2.99% 3.44% 1.08% 2.16% -1.82% 4.80% 2.77% 4.20% 3.00%
Nov-23 3.14% 4.02% 2.70% 3.22% 0.77% 1.94% -1.55% 5.18% 2.79% 4.50% 3.20%
Dec-23 3.35% 3.91% 2.70% 3.04% 1.05% 1.79% -2.40% 5.68% 3.09% 3.10% 2.90%
Jan-24 3.09% 3.87% 2.61% 3.06% 0.99% 2.04% -1.34% 6.17% 2.42% 2.90% 2.90%
Feb-24 3.15% 3.76% 2.59% 2.93% 1.61% 2.14% -0.92% 6.54% 2.43% 3.00% 2.90%
Mar-24 3.48% 3.80% 2.81% 2.98% 1.99% 2.28% 0.43% 6.54% 2.08% 2.90% 2.80%
Apr-24 3.36% 3.62% 2.72% 2.89% 2.33% 2.54% 1.00% 6.39% 2.70% 3.20% 3.00%
May-24 3.27% 3.41% 2.57% 2.67% 2.55% 2.70% 1.29% 6.00% 2.94% 3.30% 3.00%
Jun-24 2.97% 3.28% 2.44% 2.63% 2.96% 3.27% 1.58% 5.49% 2.73% 3.00% 3.00%
Jul-24 2.89% 3.21% 2.47% 2.67% 2.41% 2.58% 1.72% 4.94% 2.56% 2.90% 3.00%
Aug-24 2.53% 3.27% 2.28% 2.73% 2.08% 2.81% 0.78% 4.30% 2.35% 2.80% 3.00%
Sep-24 2.44% 3.26% 2.10% 2.66% 2.04% 3.16% -0.07% 3.90% 2.24% 2.70% 3.10%
Oct-24 2.60% 3.30% 2.31% 2.79% 2.64% 3.37% 0.64% 3.60% 2.26% 2.70% 3.00%
Nov-24 2.75% 3.30% 2.44% 2.82% 2.97% 3.45% 1.29% 2.43% 2.60% 3.20%

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

36
Monthly Performance of Various Commodities, 01/2023–12/2024
Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg
Industrial Metals Precious Metals Agriculture Energy Livestock Commodity Gold Silver Platinum Palladium WTI Natural Gas Copper
TR Subindex TR Subindex TR Subindex TR Subindex TR Subindex TR Index

Jan-23 8.11% 4.42% 1.88% -9.68% -2.79% -0.49% 5.67% -1.11% -5.46% -8.04% -1.73% -40.02% 11.12%
Feb-23 -9.14% -6.80% -3.58% -3.25% 0.83% -4.70% -5.22% -11.76% -5.81% -14.09% -2.31% 2.35% -3.10%
Mar-23 -0.33% 9.21% 0.63% -6.95% -2.35% -0.21% 7.70% 15.11% 4.09% 3.05% -1.79% -19.33% 0.17%
Apr-23 -3.43% 1.70% -2.03% -0.49% 1.73% -0.75% 1.11% 4.00% 8.34% 2.81% 1.47% 8.75% -5.71%
May-23 -8.37% -2.42% -4.65% -8.77% -1.83% -5.64% -1.37% -6.23% -7.52% -9.27% -11.32% -5.98% -6.18%
Jun-23 1.15% -2.38% 4.60% 8.43% 9.83% 4.04% -2.18% -3.09% -9.26% -9.89% 3.75% 23.48% 3.03%
Jul-23 6.92% 4.00% 2.12% 11.90% 2.81% 6.26% 2.32% 8.87% 5.32% 4.47% 15.80% -5.86% 6.78%
Aug-23 -4.69% -1.68% -1.93% 2.39% -0.38% -0.77% -1.24% -1.35% 1.93% -5.26% 2.24% 5.09% -5.56%
Sep-23 1.58% -5.71% -4.63% 4.39% 0.28% -0.69% -4.71% -9.31% -6.52% 2.56% 8.56% 5.82% -1.23%
Oct-23 -4.06% 6.33% 1.86% -2.74% -1.22% 0.27% 7.27% 3.34% 3.23% -10.49% -10.76% 22.06% -2.27%
Nov-23 0.35% 4.32% 1.49% -10.44% -5.64% -2.25% 2.68% 10.26% -0.72% -9.61% -6.25% -21.62% 5.15%
Dec-23 4.03% -0.45% -4.85% -6.03% -2.40% -2.69% 1.32% -5.90% 6.51% 8.99% -5.67% -10.28% 1.34%
Jan-24 -1.90% -1.29% -1.51% 2.79% 8.77% 0.40% -1.23% -3.55% -7.02% -11.10% 5.86% -16.47% 0.57%
Feb-24 -0.55% -0.56% -4.76% -0.42% 2.84% -1.47% 0.30% -1.08% -4.59% -3.54% 3.18% -11.43% -1.74%
Mar-24 1.75% 8.56% 2.09% 2.43% -0.79% 3.31% 9.26% 10.17% 3.68% 7.74% 6.27% -5.22% 4.41%
Apr-24 13.91% 4.09% -1.48% 0.37% -0.82% 2.69% 2.38% 5.23% 2.81% -6.07% -1.49% 12.93% 14.01%
May-24 1.81% 4.56% 3.20% -1.40% -1.30% 1.76% 1.81% 15.58% 11.16% -4.25% -6.03% 29.93% 1.00%
Jun-24 -5.34% -0.82% -6.29% 4.07% 0.89% -1.54% -0.05% -4.11% -4.29% 6.53% 5.91% 0.54% -4.76%
Jul-24 -6.78% 2.68% -5.29% -7.65% 2.35% -4.04% 5.26% -0.30% -1.72% -4.85% -4.45% -21.72% -5.25%
Aug-24 3.40% 1.93% 0.85% -4.29% 0.36% 0.05% 2.24% -0.67% -5.14% 4.32% -5.60% 4.47% -0.36%
Sep-24 6.83% 6.31% 7.19% 0.48% 1.93% 4.86% 5.25% 7.99% 5.42% 3.56% -7.31% 37.42% 8.47%
Oct-24 -3.71% 4.00% -4.53% -4.42% 5.72% -1.85% 4.15% 4.82% 1.18% 10.61% 1.60% -7.39% -4.06%
Nov-24 -1.19% -3.78% 1.55% 3.66% -0.17% 0.41% -3.29% -6.28% -4.24% -11.50% -1.82% 24.23% -5.40%
Dec-24 -3.02% -2.20% 0.79% 6.49% -0.74% 1.02% -1.12% -5.64% -4.44% -6.96% 5.47% 8.03% -2.32%

CAGR -3.01% 17.19% -8.99% -10.96% 8.59% -1.49% 19.92% 9.76% -8.07% -28.75% -5.47% -9.90% 2.34%
MAX 13.91% 9.21% 7.19% 11.90% 9.83% 6.26% 9.26% 15.58% 11.16% 10.61% 15.80% 37.42% 14.01%
MIN -9.14% -6.80% -6.29% -10.44% -5.64% -5.64% -5.22% -11.76% -9.26% -14.09% -11.32% -40.02% -6.18%

Current Price 339.1 643.3 57.01 71.3 60.67 238.6 2,624 28.87 903.8 911 71.72 3.63 3.99

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

37
CFTC Futures and Options Net Long Positioning, Non-Commercial Traders,
12/27/2024

Asset Gold Silver Platinum Palladium Crude Oil Natural Gas Copper
Last 243,381 35,237 15,165 -8,089 266,318 -111,355 1,112
W/W -17,828 -770 4,061 -778 18,085 14,837 -4,168
3M Avg. 268,287 46,081 22,721 -6,031 220,205 -143,603 21,295
6M Avg. 272,650 46,925 19,012 -8,477 231,252 -116,678 24,416
1Y Avg. 241,417 42,598 16,848 -9,787 237,113 -114,268 23,839
1Y High 313,939 65,023 37,588 -2,453 312,326 -55,532 68,048
1Y Low 129,251 7,344 -4,532 -13,914 174,881 -171,590 -33,575
1Y Z-Score 0.04 -0.53 -0.18 0.62 0.78 0.10 -0.89
3Y Avg. 191,817 27,171 12,990 -6,535 279,380 -124,090 3,973
3Y High 321,225 65,023 37,588 -272 453,074 -49,985 68,048
3Y Low 45,973 -12,811 -8,246 -13,914 170,119 -182,100 -35,712
3Y Z-Score 0.80 0.45 0.21 -0.39 -0.19 0.44 -0.11
5Y Avg. 213,140 32,462 16,578 -3,273 372,200 -102,588 13,337
5Y High 388,803 80,646 69,306 11,577 594,465 71,340 80,564
5Y Low 45,973 -12,811 -8,246 -13,914 170,119 -262,534 -44,421
5Y Z-Score 0.47 0.16 -0.11 -0.91 -0.81 -0.14 -0.40

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

38
Monthly Performance of Various Assets, 01/2023–12/2024
Shanghai US 2Y US 10Y DE 10Y JP 10Y
S&P 500 VIX Russell 2000 NASDAQ Comp. Euro Stoxx 50 Nikkei 225 MSCI World DXY
Composite (∆ in bps) (∆ in bps) (∆ in bps) (∆ in bps)
Jan-23 6.18% -15.47% 9.69% 10.68% 5.52% 4.72% 5.39% 7.00% -1.38% -19.60 -30.20 -28.60 7.20
Feb-23 -2.61% 6.40% -1.81% -1.11% 1.09% 0.43% 0.74% -2.53% 2.72% 59.00 38.50 35.80 1.10
Mar-23 3.51% -0.06% -4.98% 6.69% 1.17% 2.17% -0.21% 2.83% -2.25% -73.50 -42.40 -32.40 -17.70
Apr-23 1.46% -11.21% -1.86% 0.04% 2.73% 2.91% 1.54% 1.59% -0.83% 0.20 -3.80 1.00 7.40
May-23 0.25% 2.33% -1.09% 5.80% -3.04% 7.04% -3.57% -1.25% 2.62% 32.60 18.50 -5.10 3.30
Jun-23 6.47% -20.43% 7.95% 6.59% 2.00% 7.45% -0.08% 5.93% -1.36% 48.70 18.20 12.50 -3.50
Jul-23 3.11% -0.98% 6.06% 4.05% 1.24% -0.05% 2.78% 3.29% -1.03% -0.30 13.80 7.30 20.80
Aug-23 -1.77% 1.21% -5.17% -2.17% -2.22% -1.67% -5.20% -2.55% 1.73% -1.50 13.40 0.40 4.70
Sep-23 -4.87% 18.13% -6.03% -5.81% -1.10% -2.34% -0.30% -4.45% 2.51% 18.70 48.00 36.70 12.00
Oct-23 -2.20% 2.00% -6.88% -2.78% -2.76% -3.14% -2.95% -2.97% 0.41% 2.50 30.40 -3.10 18.00
Nov-23 8.92% -24.10% 8.83% 10.70% 4.48% 8.52% 0.36% 9.21% -2.97% -35.60 -52.50 -35.90 -27.50
Dec-23 4.42% 2.13% 12.05% 5.52% 2.78% -0.07% -1.81% 4.81% -2.09% -46.50 -49.00 -41.90 -6.00
Jan-24 1.59% 5.85% -3.93% 1.02% 2.92% 8.43% -6.27% 1.14% 1.92% -2.10 10.50 13.20 12.00
Feb-24 5.17% -5.81% 5.52% 6.12% 1.54% 7.94% 8.13% 4.11% 0.85% 41.70 28.70 24.30 -2.10
Mar-24 3.10% 2.57% 3.39% 1.79% 3.51% 3.07% 0.86% 3.01% 0.37% -2.60 -5.80 -11.20 1.10
Apr-24 -4.16% 9.01% -7.09% -4.41% -0.74% -4.86% 2.09% -3.85% 1.60% 42.60 49.00 28.90 14.60
May-24 4.80% -11.96% 4.87% 6.88% 2.12% 0.21% -0.58% 4.23% -1.46% -15.30 -17.20 6.70 20.30
Jun-24 3.47% 1.69% -1.08% 5.96% 0.06% 2.85% -3.87% 1.93% 1.14% -17.30 -16.90 -16.10 -2.90
Jul-24 1.13% 14.10% 10.10% -0.75% -0.01% -1.22% -0.97% 1.70% -1.67% -38.20 -23.80 -18.50 1.50
Aug-24 2.28% -3.68% -1.63% 0.65% 1.35% -1.16% -3.28% 2.51% -2.30% -41.10 -19.40 -1.20 -17.00
Sep-24 2.02% 22.27% 0.56% 2.68% -2.16% -1.88% 17.39% 1.69% -0.90% -27.60 -10.90 -15.70 -3.60
Oct-24 -0.99% 11.23% -1.49% -0.52% -3.10% 3.06% -1.70% -2.04% 3.17% 51.50 48.20 25.80 8.00
Nov-24 5.73% -29.14% 10.84% 6.21% 0.31% -2.23% 1.42% 4.47% 1.69% 0.80 -9.00 -30.30 12.00
Dec-24 -2.50% 17.95% -8.40% 0.48% -0.46% 4.41% 0.76% -2.68% 2.60% 7.80 38.30 27.60 2.30

CAGR 23.77% -12.91% 12.53% 35.83% 8.62% 23.65% 4.16% 19.36% 2.37% - - - -
MAX 8.92% 22.27% 12.05% 10.70% 5.52% 8.52% 17.39% 9.21% 3.17% 59.00 49.00 36.70 20.80
MIN -4.87% -29.14% -8.40% -5.81% -3.10% -4.86% -6.27% -4.45% -2.97% -73.50 -52.50 -41.90 -27.50

Current Price 5,882 17.52 2,230 19,311 4,309 39,895 3,352 3,708 108.5 4.25% 4.58% 2.36% 1.08%

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

39
Fed Interest Rate Policy Implied by Federal Funds Futures (1 = 25 bps),
12/2024–12/2027
1

Effective Federal Funds Rate (12/31/2024) = 4.33%

-1

-2

-3
12/2024 03/2025 06/2025 09/2025 12/2025 03/2026 06/2026 09/2026 12/2026 03/2027 06/2027 09/2027

31-Dec-2024

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

40
US 10-2 Spread (UST 10Y - UST 2Y), 01/2023–12/2024
0.50%

0.25%

0.00%

-0.25%

-0.50%

-0.75%

-1.00%

-1.25%
01/2023 04/2023 07/2023 10/2023 01/2024 04/2024 07/2024 10/2024

US 10-2 Spread (UST 10Y - UST 2Y)

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

41
5. Long Term Charts

“If you decide you want to buy gold, you have the weight of
history behind you.”

Herb Stein

42
Market Capitalization of Gold, and US Stock Market (Wilshire 5000), in
USD trn, 02/2013–12/2024
90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Gold US Stock Market (Wilshire 5000)

Source: World Gold Council, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

43
Market Capitalization of Bitcoin, and Gold, in USD trn, 01/2013–12/2024
20

16

12

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Bitcoin Gold

Source: coinmarketcap.com, World Gold Council, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

44
Aggregated Central Bank Balance Sheets (Fed, ECB, BoJ, PBoC),
in USD trn (lhs), and yoy (rhs), 01/2000–11/2024
40 60%

35 50%

30 40%

25 30%

20 20%

15 10%

10 0%

5 -10%

0 -20%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Recession USD yoy

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

45
M2 (US, EU, JP, CN, GB, CH), in USD trn (lhs), and yoy (rhs),
01/2000–11/2024
100 32%

90 28%

80 24%

70 20%

60 16%

50 12%

40 8%

30 4%

20 0%

10 -4%

0 -8%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

Recession USD yoy

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

46
Buffett Indicator (Wilshire 5000 as % of US GDP), Q1/1971–Q3/2024
250%
Everything Bubble?

200%

Dot-Com Bubble
150%

GFC 2008

100%

50%

0%
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

Recession Buffett Indicator

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

47
S&P GSCI Total Return Index/S&P 500 Ratio, 01/1971–12/2024
10 Gulf War 1990

9 GFC 2008

Oil Crisis 1973/74

8

2 Everything
(except commodities)
Bubble
1 Dot-Com Bubble

0
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

Recession S&P GSCI Total Return Index/S&P 500 Ratio Median

Source: Dr. Torsten Dennin, Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

48
Gold (lhs), in USD, and Real Federal Funds (Federal Funds - CPI)
(rhs, inverted), 01/1970–12/2024
3,000 -10%

2,750 -8%
2,500 -6%
2,250
-4%
2,000
-2%
1,750
0%
1,500
2%
1,250
4%
1,000
6%
750

500 8%

250 10%

0 12%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Recession Gold Real Federal Funds

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

49
US Total Public Debt, in USD trn, 01/1970–12/2024
40

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Recession US Total Public Debt

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

50
S&P500/Gold Ratio, 01/1970–12/2024
6

0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Recession S&P500/Gold Ratio Median

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

51
Various Currencies in Gold (log), in mg, 08/1971–12/2024
1,000

100

Current Level:
1 USD = 11.85 mg
1 EUR = 12.27 mg
10 1 CHF = 13.07 mg
100 JPY = 7.54 mg

1
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

Recession 1 USD 1 EUR 1 CHF 100 JPY

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

52
US Commodity Price Index, 10-year rolling CAGR, 1815–2024
16% 2045e
Cold War

12%
Post WWI
US Civil War

8% War of 1812 &

Napoleonic Wars

4%

0%

-4%

1st US The Long

-8% Depression Depression
The Great
Depression
Current Depression

-12%
1815 1835 1855 1875 1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995 2015 2035

US Commodity Price Index 10y-MA

Source: Reuters Eikon, Stifel Report, Incrementum AG

53
6. Proprietary Models

“I believe it would be both risk-reducing and return-

enhancing to consider adding gold to one's portfolio.”

Ray Dalio

54
Incrementum Inflation Signal , and BCOM TR*, 01/2020–12/2024
300

250

200

150

100
01/2020 07/2020 01/2021 07/2021 01/2022 07/2022 01/2023 07/2023 01/2024 07/2024

Offensive Neutral Defensive BCOM TR*

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG *Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index

55
Incrementum Active Aurum Signal , and HUI Index, in USD,
01/2020–12/2024
400

350

300

250

200

150
01/2020 07/2020 01/2021 07/2021 01/2022 07/2022 01/2023 07/2023 01/2024 07/2024

Offensiv Neutral Defensiv HUI Index

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

56
Incrementum Recession Phase Model

Source: Incrementum AG, (For more details, see In Gold We Trust Report 2023, p. 137) *For short recession periods less than 3 months
** For recession periods with 6 or less months no Phase 3 is identified
57
Gold Performance in the Incrementum Recession Phase Model

Duration
Date Recession Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
(Months)

01/1970-11/1970 11 6.6% -14.5% 0.1% 1.7% 4.7% 8.9%

12/1973-03/1975 16 73.8% -12.0% 60.8% 14.7% -5.8% -19.7%

02/1980-07/1980 6 -5.9% 120.1% -20.7% n/a 18.6% -17.5%

06/1981-11/1982 18 -9.0% -23.1% -10.9% -3.6% 6.0% 0.3%

08/1990-03/1991 8 -4.1% -10.0% 2.6% 3.3% -9.5% -0.4%

04/2001-11/2001 8 6.4% -5.9% 5.0% 1.3% 0.0% 19.0%

01/2008-06/2009 18 11.1% 28.4% 9.9% 0.2% 0.9% 18.3%

03/2020-04/2020 2 6.0% 4.3% -0.9% n/a 6.9% 11.8%

Average 10.9 10.6% 10.9% 5.7% 2.9% 2.7% 2.6%

Median 9.5 6.2% -8.0% 1.3% 1.5% 2.8% 4.6%

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

58
Silver Performance in the Incrementum Recession Phase Model

Duration
Date Recession Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
(Months)

01/1970-11/1970 11 -12.3% 14.9% 3.2% -2.7% -12.6% 0.9%

12/1973-03/1975 16 42.4% 14.0% 89.4% -22.4% -3.1% 6.4%

02/1980-07/1980 6 -53.5% 275.3% -60.0% n/a 16.3% -15.2%

06/1981-11/1982 18 -7.5% -43.3% -13.7% -13.3% 23.6% 38.1%

08/1990-03/1991 8 -19.8% -7.3% -13.3% 0.7% -8.1% 7.3%

04/2001-11/2001 8 -3.0% -11.7% 0.2% -2.8% -0.5% 20.2%

01/2008-06/2009 18 -8.1% 19.2% 16.5% -24.9% 4.9% 24.0%

03/2020-04/2020 2 -9.9% -9.2% -16.2% n/a 7.5% 57.3%

Average 10.9 -9.0% 31.5% 0.8% -10.9% 3.5% 17.4%

Median 9.5 -9.0% 3.4% -6.5% -8.0% 2.2% 13.7%

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

59
BGMI Performance in the Incrementum Recession Phase Model

Duration
Date Recession Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
(Months)

01/1970-11/1970 11 55.8% -41.2% 33.3% 9.0% 7.3% -2.3%

12/1973-03/1975 16 35.9% 46.0% 61.1% -23.4% 10.2% -17.2%

02/1980-07/1980 6 27.0% 76.3% -10.2% n/a 41.4% -6.3%

06/1981-11/1982 18 -19.2% -27.4% -4.3% -30.5% 21.6% 55.0%

08/1990-03/1991 8 -22.3% -18.0% -22.1% 8.3% -7.8% -0.5%

04/2001-11/2001 8 15.0% 2.2% 12.0% 3.6% -0.9% 56.6%

01/2008-06/2009 18 -27.6% 25.7% 2.1% -36.8% 12.3% 24.6%

03/2020-04/2020 2 -21.1% 7.3% -4.1% n/a -17.7% 84.3%

Average 10.9 5.4% 8.9% 8.5% -11.7% 8.3% 24.3%

Median 9.5 -2.1% 4.8% -1.0% -9.9% 8.8% 12.0%

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

60
BCOM Performance in the Incrementum Recession Phase Model

Duration
Date Recession Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5
(Months)

01/1970-11/1970 11 16.29% -0.41% 3.34% 10.99% 1.39% 2.04%

12/1973-03/1975 16 26.39% 17.97% 18.55% 20.57% -11.57% 4.66%

02/1980-07/1980 6 -6.48% 57.45% -17.82% n/a 13.79% -13.75%

06/1981-11/1982 18 -26.71% -25.15% -10.94% -19.53% 2.27% 8.41%

08/1990-03/1991 8 1.91% 1.96% 16.03% -6.17% -6.40% -0.35%

04/2001-11/2001 8 -13.68% -1.50% -3.61% 0.64% -11.02% 7.48%

01/2008-06/2009 18 -33.75% 9.01% 8.99% -45.54% 11.62% 13.59%

03/2020-04/2020 2 -14.20% -7.82% -12.85% n/a -1.55% 17.97%

Average 10.9 -6.3% 6.4% 0.2% -6.5% -0.2% 5.0%

Median 9.5 -10.1% 0.8% -0.1% -2.8% -0.1% 6.1%

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

61
Approximated Gold Price in 2030 by Distribution Probability according
to the Incrementum Gold Price Model
20%
18.6%
18.1%

15.0%
15%
13.5%

Probability Weighted Peak:

USD 4,821.80
9.9%
10%
7.7%

6.3%

5%
3.8%
2.9%
2.4%
2.0%

0%
<1,000 1,000-2,000 2,000-3,000 3,000-4,000 4,000-5,000 5,000-6,000 6,000-7,000 7,000-8,000 8,000-10,000 10,000-12,500 >12,500

Source: Incrementum AG (For more details, see In Gold We Trust Report 2020, p. 348)

62
Gold, and Projected Gold Price for 2030, in USD, 01/1970–12/2030
5,000 Gold Price Projection until 2030:
USD 4,821
4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Actual Gold Price Projected Gold Price

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

63
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75
 Glossary

• bn: billion • DE 10Y: German 10 Year Bond • SILJ: ETFMG Prime Junior Silver Miners
• BoJ: Bank of Japan • DXY: US Dollar Index ETF
• bps: basis points • ECB: European Central Bank • TR: Total Return
• CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate • Fed: Federal Reserve • trn: trillion
• Case-Shiller US National HPI: Case-Shiller • GDX: VanEck Gold Miners ETF • US 2Y: United States 2 Year Bond
United States National Home Price Index • GDXJ: VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF • US 10Y: United States 10 Year Bond
• CFTC: Commodity Futures Trading • HICP: Harmonised Index of Consumer • VIX: CBOE Volatility Index
Commission Prices • WTI: West Texas Intermediate (Crude Oil)
• COMEX: New York Commodities Exchange • HUI: NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index • yoy: year on year
• Core CPI: Core Consumer Price Index • JP 10Y: Japanese 10 Year Bond • YTD: Year to Date
(Excluding Food and Energy) • M2: M2 Money Supply
• Core PCE: Personal Consumption • MA: Moving Average
Expenditures (Excluding Food and Energy) • PBoC: People’s Bank of China
• Core PPI: Core Producer Price Index • PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Excluding Food and Energy) • PPI: Producer Price Index
• CPI: Consumer Price Index • S&P GSCI: Standard & Poor’s Goldman
• CRB TR: Thomson Reuters/Corecommodity Sachs Commodity Index
CRB Total Return Index • SIL: Global X Silver Miners ETF

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About the In Gold We Trust Report

The annually published In Gold We Trust report has been

authored by Ronald-Peter Stöferle since 2007, this year for
the eleventh time together with Mark J. Valek and under the
umbrella of Incrementum AG.

It provides a holistic assessment of the gold sector and the

most important influencing factors, such as real interest rate
development, debt, inflation, etc.

Mark J. Valek & Ronald Peter Stöferle

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About the Authors
Ronald-Peter Stöferle, CMT

• Ronnie is managing partner of Incrementum AG and

responsible for research and portfolio management.

• In 2007 he published his first In Gold We Trust report. Over

the years, the study has become one of the benchmark
publications on gold, money, and inflation.

• Member of the Board Tudor Gold Corp. (TUD) and

Goldstorm Metals (GSTM)

• Advisor for VON GREYERZ

Ronald-Peter Stöferle, CMT

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About the Authors
Mark J. Valek, CAIA

• Mark is a partner of Incrementum AG and

responsible for portfolio management and
research.

• Prior to Incrementum, he was with Merrill Lynch

and then for 10 years with Raiffeisen Capital
Management, most recently as fund manager in
the area of inflation protection.

• He gained entrepreneurial experience as co-

founder of philoro Edelmetalle GmbH.

Mark J. Valek, CAIA

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About Incrementum

Incrementum AG is an owner-managed and fully

licensed asset manager & wealth manager based in
the Principality of Liechtenstein.

Independence is the cornerstone of our philosophy.

The partners own 100% of the company.

Our goal is to offer solid and innovative investment

solutions that do justice to the opportunities and risks
of today’s complex and fragile environment.

The 5 Equity Partners of Incrementum AG

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 Incrementum AG
Im alten Riet 153
9494 – Schaan/Liechtenstein
[email protected]
www.incrementum.li

www.incrementum.li
ingoldwetrust.report

ingoldwetrust.report

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Disclaimer

This publication is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, investment analysis or an invitation to buy or sell
financial instruments. In particular, this document is not intended to replace individual investment or other advice. The information contained
in this publication is based on the state of knowledge at the time of preparation and may be changed at any time without further notice.

The publishing rights for the In Gold We Trust Report were transferred to Sound Money Capital AG in November 2023. Furthermore, the
report continues to be co-branded with the Incrementum brand as in the past.

The authors have taken the greatest possible care in selecting the sources of information used and (like Sound Money Capital AG and
Incrementum AG) accept no liability for the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information or sources of information provided or for
any resulting liability or damages of any kind (including consequential or indirect damages, loss of profit or the occurrence of forecasts made).

All publications of Sound Money Capital AG and Incrementum AG are in principle marketing communications or other information and not
investment recommendations within the meaning of the Market Abuse Regulation. Investment recommendations are not published by either
company.

Sound Money Capital AG is fully and exclusively responsible for the content of this In Gold We Trust Report.

Copyright: 2025 Sound Money Capital AG. All rights reserved.

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