Does Moldova Have A Place in Europe
Does Moldova Have A Place in Europe
Does Moldova Have A Place in Europe
7 September 2011
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In 2010, a coalition government inherited power in Moldova after eight years of communist rule. Under the previous regime, there had been no separation of powers, the so-called public television was a mouthpiece of the Communist Party, and the president enjoyed special economic privileges. Many young people were leaving the country and Moldova was an isolated state with suspended relations with the EU. With the budget deficit at 16.5 percent of GDP, Moldova was on the verge of collapse. Today, government is no longer a one-man show and various checks and balances have been put in place. The media environment is vibrant. After engaging the IMF, the new government managed to decrease the budget deficit to 2.5 percent in 2011. Over the past year, economic growth amounted to 8.4 percent, and there was an up to 60 percent increase in exports. Still, the government has not been able to liberalise all sectors or attract significant investment to the country. The situation is complicated by increasing energy prices. Recently, Gazprom increased the price of the gas supplied to Moldova by 24 percent. The judicial system remains corrupt, with its members protecting their own corporate interests. The reform of law enforcement agencies also poses a significant challenge. Moldovas chances for EU integration have also improved. A few years ago, no one in Brussels thought there was a possibility of Moldova heading towards integration. Despite the EUs reluctance and enlargement fatigue, there is a debate on this issue now. There is no mention of poor membership prospects for the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries in the EaP review published in May. Moldovas future depends on the authorities ability to speed up reform and show that the events of 2009 were the beginning of a consistent and coherent process. Problems have arisen within the ruling coalition. If the government does not deliver on the economy, education, etcetera, the optimism brought by the last election will be replaced by disillusionment. The government should show that the situation in Moldova is different from that in Ukraine after the Orange Revolution; they should make sure that Moldova is a success story, on its way to becoming the stable and predictable country that the EU would like to see. There are hopes for the Free Trade Area agreement negotiations to start this year. Moldova would also like to see some progress on formalising the process of a visa free regime at this year's EU summit. The EaP principle of more for more should be applied more widely.
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dangerous level. The situation has improved since but more cooperation is needed. Financial crime remains a major issue. The discussion then turned to the Transnistrian issue. Mr Leanc said the government has successfully engaged Transnistria on some areas, such as business and sport. It has tried to show that its policy is pragmatic rather than ideological. However, the government has not been able to address the future status of Transnistria. Last year's meeting, led by Angela Merkel and Dmitri Medvedev, brought a breakthrough, and it showed that the EU can play an important role in the security and stability of the region. There is hope that discussion with these partners will help Moldova create the necessary preconditions for identifying a solution to the Transnistria crisis. A participant asked about Ukraine's role in the Transnistria peace process in the context of its approaching chairmanship of the OSCE in 2013. Mr Leanc replied that Moldova is interested in good relations with Ukraine. The two countries were recently able to move ahead after a period of stagnant relations. The two governments have achieved compromises on several difficult issues, such as border demarcation. Both Ukraine and Moldova are interested in integrating into the European energy network. Ukraine does have some leverage on the Transnistrian issue and its position is becoming more active. The next question was about the size and status of the Russian force in Transnistria. In Moldovas view, the presence of Russian troops is illegal and they must be withdrawn. The continued presence of old ammunition stockpiles on Transnistrian territory also poses a danger. Discussions with the Russian MFA continued, however, they have not yielded any results, although were somewhat more promising. A participant mentioned a recent incident at the Russian embassy in Chisinau when the Russian ambassador presented Vladimir Yastrebchak, the Transnistrian Minister of Foreign Affairs, as the head of the Foreign Office in Transnistria. The speaker said it was important that Russia should respect Moldovan sovereignty. What assets does Gazprom own in Moldova? Could Moldovan assets be traded for a lower gas price? In 2008, the Moldovan government and Gazprom signed a three-year contract that envisaged future price increases. The recent hike pushed the gas price to $400 per thousand cubic metres. The current government is interested in gaining access to at least one alternative source of energy in the next three to five years. Gazprom owns 51 percent of Moldova Gas and the distribution network. The speaker said he does not envisage sale of Moldovan assets in return for a lower gas price. Gas
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consumption in Transnistria also poses a problem. Transnistrias debt to Gazprom is expected to amount to up to $3 billion at the end of 2011. Once the Transnistrian issue is solved, this debt will become Moldovas debt, although the government had never consented to its accumulation. Moldova is keen to engage her Russian partners on this issue.
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