1 Probability: WWW - Studyguide.pk
1 Probability: WWW - Studyguide.pk
1 Probability: WWW - Studyguide.pk
pk
Chapter 1 Probability
1 PROBABILITY
Objectives
After studying this chapter you should
1.0
Introduction
1.1
Theoretical probability:
symmetry
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Chapter 1 Probability
For the second question, your answer should be about one in six
times provided the die is a fair one. Another way of expressing
this is to say that the probability of obtaining 4 is
1
p ( 4) =
1
6
Activity 1
Card A
Card B
Card C
card A
1
You shuffle them and place them in a pile on the table so that
you can see only the upper face of the top card, which is black.
card B
1
If I were to say,
"I will pay you 5 if the reverse face of the top card is
white
and you pay me 3 if it is black."
If you said that there are two possibilities - the lower face is
either black or white - then this is certainly correct. However,
if you have gone on to decide that you are just as likely to win
as to lose then perhaps you have not listed all the possible cases.
With the three cards, if you can see a black face then the three
possibilities are that you are looking at
side 1 of Card C
side 1 of Card B
side 2 of Card B
and since two of these (side 1 and side 2 of Card B) have black
on the reverse, the bet is not a good one for you.
In the long run, in three games you would win 5 once and lose
3 twice, so you can expect to lose 1 on average every three
games or 33 1 p per go.
3
card C
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Chapter 1 Probability
Activity 2
Play the three card game a number of times with a friend. You
can use either cards, as shown on the previous page, or a die
with 1, 2, 6 painted black and 3, 4, 5 white. Remember to
always bet on the same colour being underneath as is showing
on top.
second
die
6
5
For example, when two dice are rolled there are thirty six
possible outcomes which can be shown very neatly in a diagram
(see opposite).
4
3
This is called the sample space. You can see by looking at the
crosses in the area labelled A that, for example,
2
1
P ( total = 5) = 4 = 1 .
36
9
first die
Example
Two of the five reserves for the school ski trip, Tamsin, John,
Atanu, Robin and David can have places now that a couple of
people have had to drop out. How likely is it that John and
Tamsin will be chosen to go?
second
choice
D
Solution
Only the two cases indicated out of the twenty in the diagram
opposite are situations when John and Tamsin are chosen, so
P ( T and J ) =
2
1
=
.
20
10
A
J
T
T
first choice
You know that with one die there are six different possible
outcomes and the diagram for two dice showed that there are
thirty six possible outcomes in this case.
How many will there be if three dice are used?
What sort of diagram could be drawn to show the different
results?
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Chapter 1 Probability
Die 2
Example
What is the probability of getting five sixes when five dice are
rolled?
Solution
5
7776
Example
What is the probability that there will be at least one head in five
tosses of a fair coin?
Solution
5
31
32
Die 3
5
4
3
2
1
6 1
2 3 4 5 6
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Chapter 1 Probability
Exercise 1A
1. What is the probability of choosing an even
number from the set of numbers {1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7,
8, 10}?
2. When two six-sided dice are rolled what is the
probability that the product of their scores will
be greater than six?
3. If you have three 10p coins and two 50p coins in
your pocket and you take out two at random,
what is the probability that they add up to 60p?
(Draw a sample space.)
4. If two people are chosen at random what is the
probability that they were born on the same day
of the week?
5. List the ways in which one head and five tails
may be obtained from six tosses of a coin. How
many ways are there?
1.2
Empirical probability:
experiment
Cuboctahedron
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Chapter 1 Probability
Activity 3
Find the answer for yourself by making the solid from a copy of
the net. Be prepared to roll it many times.
7
7
16
10
20
7
= 0. 7
10
Fraction (probability)
0.5
30
16
= 0. 8
20
Net of a cuboctahedron
150
200
3
4
20 40
number of rolls
200
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Chapter 1 Probability
3
In reality, if the true probability was 4 , you would be unlikely
to get exactly 150 out of 200 but you should be somewhere
near it.
Activity 4
Coin tossing
Toss an unbiased coin 100 times, and record the total fraction of
heads after every 10 goes. Plot these on a graph of fraction of
heads against number of goes. Does this indicate that the coin is
a fair one?
1.3
Empirical probability:
observation
Probability of surviving
at least 5 years
35
38.1
0.993
36
37.1
37
36.2
38
35.2
39
34.3
40
33.3
41
32.4
42
31.5
43
30.5
44
29.6
45
28.7
0.988
0.979
Data like these are needed by insurance companies for their life
policies. Some people will look at tables of figures for sunshine
hours and rainfall when planning holidays.
Probability is of interest to people working in economics,
genetics, astronomy and many other fields where it may be
difficult to experiment but where data can be gathered by
observation over a long period.
7
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Chapter 1 Probability
Example
Jane travels to school on the train every weekday and often sees
rabbits in a field by the track. In four weeks her observations
were
Number of
rabbits seen
Number of
occasions
What is the probability that on her next journey she will see at
least two rabbits?
Solution
17
= 0.85,
20
as on 5 + 7 + 2 +1+ 0 +1+1 = 17 days out of the 20 she saw two
or more rabbits.
P (at least two rabbits) =
Exercise 1B
1. Using the information from the example above,
what is the probability that Jane sees:
(a) 3 or 4 rabbits;
(b) 6 rabbits;
(c) at least one rabbit?
2. The number of visitors to the UK from North
America in 1988 is given below in categories to
show mode of travel and purpose of visit.
Air
Sea
1269
336
Business
605
17
627
55
Miscellaneous
324
39
Holiday
(in
1000s)
25
100
be used to estimate .)
and can
4
4. Take ten drawing pins and drop them onto a flat
surface. Note how many finish point up.
Repeat this several times and produce a table
and graph like those you used with the
cuboctahedron.
What is the probability that a drawing pin
accidentally dropped will fall into a point-up
position?
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1.4
Chapter 1 Probability
Combined events
Complement
In the probability experiment in Section 1.2 you will have
obtained a value for probability by considering, for example, the
number of times a square face finished uppermost as a fraction
of the total number of rolls as
P (square ) =
0 probability 1.
Another result that may be obvious is that the number of times
with a square facing up plus the number of times with a triangle
facing up equals the number of trials.
Hence
P ( A) + P ( A') = 1
where A' means 'not A' or the 'complement of A'.
You may well have used this idea earlier when you answered the
question in Section 1.2 about how likely it is for a square not to
appear on the top face when a cuboctahedron is rolled.
Intersection
Take a cube and mark on its different faces three black circles,
one black cross and two red crosses.
When it is rolled, what are the probabilities of getting
red,
black,
circle
and
cross ?
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Chapter 1 Probability
You can see that just one of the cube's six faces is covered by
this description, so
P ( black and cross) = 1 .
6
black
cross
or
black
3
cross
1
Union
Eight teams are entered for a knock-out netball tournament and
two of these are the YWCA and the Zodiac youth club.
What is the probability that the YWCA or Zodiac will reach the
final?
('or' here means one or the other or both, more technically called
the inclusive disjunction.)
A
Final
How the competition will run is shown opposite but until the
draw is made no names can be entered.
A diagram like the one you used earlier shows all the different
possible ways in which the two final places A and B may be
filled by the competing teams.
10
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From the figure opposite you can see that
P ( Zodiac in final ) =
14
56
(b)
P ( YWCA in final ) =
14
56
(c)
P ( Zodiac or YWCA ) =
YWCA
Y Zodiac
WCA
Zodiac
26
.
56
Zodiac
YWCA
(a)
Chapter 1 Probability
2
56
Taking off the P ( Z Y ) ensures that these two events are not
counted twice.
Checking with the figures you get
14
56
14
56
2
56
26
56
which is true.
Now if you look back to the die marked with circles and crosses
you will see that
P ( black ) =
2
1
, P ( circle ) =
3
2
1
2
2
3
= 1 1 , where B C means
6
B or C.
11
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Chapter 1 Probability
P ( B C ) = P ( B) + P ( C ) P ( B C )
then a true statement results:
2
2 1 1
+
= .
3
3 2 2
The 2 on the left is correct as four of the six faces have a
3
black colour or a circle or both.
Is it ever true that P ( A B) = P ( A) + P ( B) ?
If it is, then P( A B) must be zero and this means that the
events are mutually exclusive. A Venn diagram could be
drawn and would look like the one here with no overlap. So if
P ( A B) = 0
then
P ( A B) = P ( A) + P ( B) .
In general though,
P ( A B) = P ( A) + P ( B) P ( A B)
and this can be illustrated by the Venn diagram opposite. The
intersection of the two sets, A B , is shown whilst the union,
A B, is given by everything inside A and B.
Exhaustive probabilities
The cube you looked at marked with crosses and circles had
faces as shown opposite.
What is the value of P ( black cross) ?
Since each of the six symbols was black or a cross then
P ( black cross) = 1
and the events 'getting a black symbol 'and 'getting a cross' are
said to form a pair of exhaustive events. Between them they
exhaust all the possible outcomes and therefore all the
probability, i.e. one.
12
A
A
A B
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Chapter 1 Probability
Exercise 1C
1. In a class at school
1
2
1
10
C : the total is 9
D : the red is a multiple of 3
E : the total is 11
1
5
1
4
1
3
and
1
2
(b) C, E
(c) A, B
(d) C, F
newspapers delivered. If
2
3
(e) B, D
(f) A, E
1.5
Tree diagrams
Example
While on holiday, staying with Rachel in Kent in
the South East of England, Gabrielle saw a very
large black bird. Rachel noticed that it was, in
fact, not all black and they looked in a bird book
to find what it might have been. The facts they
discovered are shown in the tree diagram
opposite.
By following along the branches from the left to
the right can you decide what they actually saw?
H Carrion Crow
I
Blackbird
18 "
Rook
< 18 "
K Jackdaw
18 "
L Raven
< 18 "
M Chough
18 "
B
seen
in S.E.
black
+other
A
all black
not seen
in S.E.
C
black
+other
Solution
18 "
< 18 "
N Hooded Crow
< 18 "
O no bird
all black
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Chapter 1 Probability
worried
happy
worried
happy
Head of Dept.
happy
1
3
Caretaker
1
4
3
4
1
5
1
2
2
3
9
10
1
4
3
4
1
2
1
2
1
10
Example
What fraction of the customers from the college look worried?
Solution
The proportions in each category are shown on the tree diagram.
14
Student
beer
spirit
So proportion worried =
Teacher
worried
shabby
4
5
1
4
Secretary
spirit
Of those,
Deputy Head
worried
1
5
Solution
Lab. Assistant
happy
well
dressed
Example
Head
beer
1
9
1
91
1
+
+
+
=
( 0.3 ).
300
60 15 50 25
1
2
1
3
1
4
1
60
1
5
1
3
3
4
1
20
1
5
2
3
1
2
1
15
1
5
4
5
1
2
2
3
1
9
4
10
15
9
50
4
5
4
5
4
5
27
50
3
4
1
2
1
25
10
1
2
1
25
9
10
1
10
1
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Chapter 1 Probability
Example
walk
If there are equal numbers of boys and girls in your school and
you know that
1
4
1
10
1
3
1
2
boys
1
lift 10
1
2
coach
1
2
girls
(a)
1
10
lift
(b)
1
4
1
2
coach
Solution
The branches have missing entries but these can be calculated
from the facts already known. Since
7
12
5
12
who must
1
2
(b)
1
2
1
5
12
49
1
2
120
1
2
1
4
1
8
= P (boy walk )
1
2
1
3
1
6
= P (boy lift )
5
12
1
2
5
12
5
24
= P (boy coach)
1
10
1
2
1
10 =
1
20
= P ( girl walk )
1
2
1
2
1
4
1
3
1
2
2
5
1
2
2
5
1
4
= P ( girl lift )
1
5
= P ( girl coach)
Total = 1
Example
When Sam and Jo play in the hockey team the probability that
Sam scores is 1 and that Jo scores is
3
not Sam does.
1
2
, regardless of whether or
What is the probability that neither will score in the next game?
15
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Chapter 1 Probability
Solution
The tree diagram opposite shows that the answer is
1
3
1
3
since
P (S' J') =
2 1 1
=
3 2 3
S'
J'
J
1
2
1
2
1
2
2
3
J'
1
2
Exercise 1D
1. The probability that a biased die falls showing a
six is
1
4
1.6
Conditional probability
1
2
1
10
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Chapter 1 Probability
C = coach.
Now
leading to
or
P ( B) =
1
2
1
2
P ( B) =
, and P (W B) =
1
2
5
12
5
24
P (G W ) =
P ( B C) =
P ( B L) =
P ( L B) =
P ( C B) =
P (B W) =
20
P ( B W ) = P ( B) P ( W B)
P ( W B) =
P ( W B) =
P (W G ) =
P (G ) =
1
2
P ( W B)
P ( B)
1
10
P ( L G) =
P (C G) =
2
5
1
2
P (G L ) =
P (G C ) =
then
P ( A B) =
P ( A B)
P ( B)
Example
Using the example from page 14, what is the probability that a
worried person from the college is a teacher?
17
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Chapter 1 Probability
Solution
P ( teacher worried ) =
P ( teacher worried )
P ( worried )
P ( teacher )
P ( worried )
4
9
1
91
=
5 10 4
300
=
=
9
91
50 300
50
=
54
300
91
91
So now you know what fraction of the worried people are
teachers.
Conditional probabilities can also be found from sample space
diagrams.
Example
If you roll two dice, one red and one green, what is the
probability that the red one shows a six if the total on the two
is 9?
red
red
total = 9
Solution
Since you know that the total is 9 you need only look at the four
crosses enclosed by the curve in the diagram opposite as they
indicate all the possible ways of getting the 9 required. Now
just considering these four, what is the chance that the red one
shows 6?
P ( r = 6 r + g = 9) =
1
4
4
3
2
1
1
green
Example
Class 7C has 18 boys and 12 girls in it and 7K is made up of 12
boys and 16 girls. If you pick one of their registers and a pupil
from it at random, what is the probability that you select
(a)
18
a girl
(b)
green
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Chapter 1 Probability
Solution
(a)
P ( girl ) =
=
1 2 1 4
+
2 5 2 7
1
(b)
P ( 7C girl ) =
2
7
P (7 C) =
1
2
P (7 K ) =
12
30
2
5
16
28
4
7
35
P ( 7C girl )
P ( girl )
1
=
17
P g 7C =
P g 7K =
2
5
17
35
1
5
17
35
17
no. of girls
no. of pupils
12 + 16
28
14
=
=
.
30 + 28
58
29
=
60
2 30
=
.
56
2 28
Exercise 1E
1. Two cards are drawn successively from an
ordinary pack of 52 playing cards and kept out
of the pack. Find the probability that:
(a) both cards are hearts;
(b) the first card is a heart and the second card is
a spade;
(c) the second card is a diamond, given that the
first card is a club.
19
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Chapter 1 Probability
1.7
Independence
P ( total ) = 7 ?
green
4
green
total = 7
3
2
total = 5
total = 3
3
2
4 red
red
2
16
are the same because the two things discussed, the chance of a
total of 7 and my cat having a broken leg, are independent.
Other examples may not be as immediately obvious.
Example
What is the value of
(a) P ( total = 5)
(b)
P ( total = 5 red = 2 )
(c) P ( total = 3)
(d)
P ( total = 3 red = 2 ) ?
Solution
(a)
From the sample space diagram above
P ( total = 5 ) =
(b)
4
16
1
4
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(c)
(d)
P ( total = 3) =
16
Chapter 1 Probability
P ( total = 3 red = 2 ) =
The answers to (a) and (b) are both 1 , so the answer to ,"How
4
likely is a total of 5?", is independent of (not affected by) the
fact that you were told in (b) that the red score was 2.
(c) and (d) have different answers, however,
1
8
and
1
4
P ( A B) = P ( A)
then they are said to be independent. Otherwise they are
dependent.
In Section 1.5 there were examples of both cases. The tree
diagram showing how pupils travelled to school included
P ( walk boy ) =
and
1
4
P ( walk girl ) =
1
,
10
Example
In one year at school, 25 out of 154 failed the end of term maths
exam. One class was particularly badly behaved and 7 out of 31
of them failed. Does bad behaviour in class affect how likely a
pupil is to fail the test?
Solution
P ( fail ) =
25
= 0.162 (to 3 d.p.)
154
21
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Chapter 1 Probability
7
= 0.226 (to 3 d.p.).
31
Example
A family has three children. What is the probability that all
three are the same sex? If you know at least two of them are
girls what is the probability that they are all the same sex? Has
this piece of information been of any help?
Solution
The possible combinations are shown below.
At least two girls
2
1
=
8
4
1
.
4
P ( A B)
P ( B)
P ( A) P ( B) = P ( A B) .
22
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P (at least two girls) =
Chapter 1 Probability
4
1
=
8
2
2
1
=
8
4
Since
1
.
8
1
1 1
=
you can see that these events are independent.
8
2 4
P ( A) P ( A B) = P ( A) P ( A) P ( B)
A B' A B
P ( A B') = P ( A) P ( A) P ( B)
= P ( A) [1 P ( B)]
P ( A B') = P ( A) P ( B') .
Exercise 1F
1. A card is selected at random from an ordinary
pack of 52. If
A = the card is an ace
D = the card is a diamond
P = the card is a picture (Jack, Queen or King)
R = the card is from a red suit
X = the card is not the three of diamonds or
the two of clubs,
what are the values of the following:
(a) P ( A )
(b) P ( A D )
(e) P ( D R )
(f) P ( P )
(g) P ( P A )
(h) P ( P A' )
(i) P ( A X )
(j) P ( D X' )
(k) P ( X D )
(l) P ( R X ) ?
1
2
c
a
(c) P ( D )
(d) P ( D P )
(b) D, P
(c) P, A
(d) R, X
(e) D, R
(f) D, R'?
d
e
1
6
1
30
2
15
1
6
23
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Chapter 1 Probability
1
2
1
3
1
4
1
2
3
and 4 point questions are 4 , 4 and 2
3
5
respectively, calculate the probability that after
four rounds the contestant has:
Miscellaneous Exercises
24
A
A
6 1
(a) is divisible by 5;
1.8
C = no tails
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Chapter 1 Probability
1
4
and the
position is
and
(a) P ( A )
(b) P ( B )
(d) P ( A B )
(e) P A' B .
3
5
(c) P B A
1
3
size.
C provides three times as many medium
as small items and no large ones.
If an item is selected at random from the
warehouse, what is the probability that it is:
(a) medium;
25
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Chapter 1 Probability
2
3
(a) (i)
(ii)
(iii)
(v)
(iv)
2
5
Saloon
Estate
White
68
62
Green
26
32
Black
(ii)
a saloon car,
(iii)
Female
Academic
42
28
Administrative
13
Support
26
26
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B is the event that the person selected is
academic staff.
C is the event that the person selected is
administrative staff.
( A is the event not A, B is the event not B, C is
the event not C)
Chapter 1 Probability
P ( A) ,
(ii)
P ( A B)
(iii)
P AC
(iv)
P A|C
not independent of A,
(ii)
independent of A,
(iii)
mutually exclusive of A.
car?
(ii)
27
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Chapter 1 Probability
Supplier
% of tins with
underweight
contents
% of tins
containing
poor quality
jam
55
1% are both
underweight and
poor quality
35
12
probability of poor
quality is independent
of probability of being
underweight
28
% of hospital
requirements
supplied
Other
information
10
20